Coronavirus Death Thread

[Yevrah]

Where'd you hear that?

My Mum told me when this kicked off properly over here not to take it as it's an Immunosuppresant. I'd been talking to my sister about the seemingly huge disparity in death rates and in particular Germany's super-resistance to it yesterday and she sent me a link tonight of a forum post with a yank trying to buy some there last year.

You search Google and there are quite a few examples of similar questions being asked.

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+ibuprofen+hard+to+buy+in+germany&rlz=1C1AWFB_enGB862GB862&oq=is+ibuprofen+hard+to+buy+in+germany&aqs=chrome..69i57.14667j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Queenslander]

Our borders are shut to foreigners from 9pm Friday night.

Cya on the other side blokes.

[Queenslander]

Our Minister for Facism Peter Dutton is going back to his dog whistling ways with the help of his talk back mate.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/were-coming-after-you-dutton-warns-grocery-hoarders-major-move-to-restock-shelves/news-story/1dc14c97137e1769ed84db246df4ab78?utm_source=News.c om.au&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_medium=Facebook

“It’s a busload of Asian Australians I presume with a trailer on the back, just going to these shopping centres and shops... Aldi, Coles and Woollies and clearing the joint out.” Hadley said.

Ray Hadley has a huge % of the boomers listening to him all around the country weekdays at 9.

[Disco]

Also, what is lockdown actually going to mean? Does that mean that the state will overrule my employer's cowardly, small-man-in-a-big-suit insistence that I MUST be at the office to do my desk sales job? Or is it just the same as now, but with uniformed goons walking around slapping down socialising renegades?

I'm past the point of caring what work say, if the government advise is to stay home I won't be going in. I don't think we should be open now let alone during whatever constitutes lockdown.

[Baz]

Day 1 of working from home:
Kept my daughter off nursery. Emails will be checked periodically while she watches Despicable Me. Might try to squeeze a few hours of WoW in. Current levels: 27, 17 & 8. Need to decide which character to focus on.

[Lofty]

I would suggest whatever lockdown is it wont be that stringent because trains will be running which would be pointless otherwise.

[Queenslander]

Jumped from 94 to 144 today in Queensland.

RIP

Pharmacies are now on a quota system. hoarding ventolin its on sight...


https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/limits-on-dispensing-and-sales-of-medicines

[John Arne]

I've just stocked up on Panadol.

[John Arne]

Daily cases continues to increase day-by-day..

https://gyazo.com/a61f712de5485e580739732194dd7633.jpeg

[Queenslander]

It is going to get really bad in Sydney and Melbourne.

https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/m/l/2020/03/abctracking.jpg

[Waffdon]

There’s loads of army boys at the Arbroath harbour. It’s happening

[Spikey M]

Management at my wife's work told to expect lockdown from tomorrow. Announcement tonight.

[Ian]

For those of us who've been able to WFH already and who haven't been going out for anything other than the shops is a LOCKDOWN going to make any difference?

[Waffdon]

Every bus and train has been dead this week. Went out and got pissed on Tuesday in anticipation of no pubs this weekend and it was a ghost town. People are learning.

[John Arne]

In the Death per Population league table, Norway have made the biggest jump, moving up 2 places from 13th to 11th, helped a lot by their relatively small population (5.4m). Despite early scares, the USA and Australia remain as non-movers. Indeed, Australia need to get some more cases confirmed otherwise they may find themselves dropping down a division, with Portugal and Czechia looking to take their spot in the top flight.

In the UCL spots, Spain leapfrog Iran to take second spot, thanks in no part to an additional 105 deaths since the 17th.

Malaysia continue to defy all logic, recording a paltry 2 deaths from 900 cases. #TeamASEAN

https://gyazo.com/ea07100364138b7e9f51f401704e6ae6.jpeg

[Yevrah]

For those of us who've been able to WFH already and who haven't been going out for anything other than the shops is a LOCKDOWN going to make any difference?

To anybody who could work from home and was observing the advice properly already, no, it'll make no difference.

To those who weren't, it's going to be a shock.

Further down the line we'll get to the stage where businesses/industries are deemed essential or not and any non-essential ones will be closed too.

[CJay]

So it turns out that Ibuprofen might be both expensive and not that commonly available in Germany.

We don't have any Germans, do we?

Yeldoow (RIP?) is German I think.

[Yeldoow]

Yeldoow (RIP?) is German I think.

I’m neither German or dead :roflol:

I still haven’t had any test results yet either.

[Jimmy Floyd]

In the full office this morning, 33 minutes in, no one has spoken a word.

It feels like we're waiting for the first bombs to fall.

[Luke Emia]

Just listening to 5 Live some woman aged 60 with asthma. Wants to see her 80 odd year old mother at the weekend as it's mothers day. She also wants to look after her daughters kids next week as the schools will be closed and her daughter needs to work. Her argument with the doctor or whoever was on there was that her asthma isn't serious. He told her that she should be isolating herself. I mean seriously what the fuck is wrong with these people? The people I'm noticing seem to have a problem with it are the middle aged. They just can't seem to get their fucking heads round the fact that this is quite serious.

[Boydy]

Once again, it's the fucking boomers.

[Ian]

We're doing a 20-30 minute video call catch up with our team every day and I'll be interested to see how people get on with this as the weeks and months roll on because I think a couple of folk are already finding this a bit of a strain.

As I said further upthread luckily my parents are being quite sensible.

[Boydy]

We're doing a 20-30 minute video call catch up with our team every day and I'll be interested to see how people get on with this as the weeks and months roll on because I think a couple of folk are already finding this a bit of a strain.

In what way?

[Shindig]

"Can you have that report on my desk Monday morning?"

[Magic]

We're doing a 20-30 minute video call catch up with our team every day and I'll be interested to see how people get on with this as the weeks and months roll on because I think a couple of folk are already finding this a bit of a strain.

As I said further upthread luckily my parents are being quite sensible.

I can't think of anything worse. We had our usual mid month catch up yesterday which was utterly pointless and made me want to die.

[Yevrah]

I’m neither German or dead :roflol:

I still haven’t had any test results yet either.

How are you feeling/have you felt?

[niko_cee]

I can't think of anything worse. We had our usual mid month catch up yesterday which was utterly pointless and made me want to die.

The silver-lining being covid might be able to fix that for you.

And you, and you . . .

[Spikey M]

Once again, it's the fucking boomers.

Ok Zoomer.

[niko_cee]

That league table is ace, but the San Marino Coronavirus [Death] Federation is going to be filing a formal complaint if you don't recognise their achievements. Top 4 minimum.

[John Arne]

That league table is ace, but the San Marino Coronavirus [Death] Federation is going to be filing a formal complaint if you don't recognise their achievements. Top 4 minimum.

Holy shit.... San Marino, population 33,000... 140 cases and 14 deaths. That's a Dp1M of 424! Almost 10 times that of Italy.

Look out for San Marino in the World Coronvuris Champions League draw!!

[Shindig]

Andorra's got some catching up to do. 76,965 people, 39 cases. 1 death. Monaco have yet to get off the mark with 7 cases and no deaths.

[Magic]

Holy shit.... San Marino, population 33,000... 140 cases and 14 deaths. That's a Dp1M of 424! Almost 10 times that of Italy.

Look out for San Marino in the World Coronvuris Champions League draw!!

It's a pointless fake country, same as Monaco. We should count them as part of Italy/France.

[Ian]

In what way?

Just being cooped up in their houses not seeing anybody. I can't pretend I'm noticing much difference so far but a couple of people already seem a bit glum about the "get up, work at home, sit in the house, sleep, repeat" routine.


I can't think of anything worse. We had our usual mid month catch up yesterday which was utterly pointless and made me want to die.

Was it work related? This is specifically not that. And it's fine, some of the chit chat is a bit meh but there are a few people who just live themselves so I can see the thinking behind it provided you don't hate everybody you work with.

[Disco]

Another day of rearranging deck chairs here.

[Yeldoow]

How are you feeling/have you felt?

I haven’t been able to shake the cough for over a week now and I still have shortness of breath and some tightness across my chest. Generally feeling quite tired and don’t have much appetite. On Saturday my temperature spiked over 38 and I could barely get out of bed again until Monday evening but that’s back under control.

All in all not great, the fever and tiredness is pretty standard flu stuff but the difficulty breathing is really starting to wear thin.

[Shindig]

Try to find some breathing techniques to get your oxygen levels up. That should help with the tiredness and keep you away from an eventual ventilator.

[Magic]

Coughing helps with pneumonia. Deep breaths and lots of coughing, worst thing you can do is those panty shitbreaths and hold in coughs.

[Shindig]

randomlegend needs to come in and tell us we're giving terrible advice.

EDIT: Tube closures. London's putting the walls up.

[Magic]

Was it work related? This is specifically not that. And it's fine, some of the chit chat is a bit meh but there are a few people who just live themselves so I can see the thinking behind it provided you don't hate everybody you work with.

Yes, we had to discuss the month so far, and what our forecast is. :D

No I couldn't quite believe it either. And discuss strategies for selling more. Fucking woeful.

[Magic]

In other weird news, I had my ex wife's partner giving me tips on what local shops stock toilet roll.

[Ian]

Yes, we had to discuss the month so far, and what our forecast is. :D

No I couldn't quite believe it either. And discuss strategies for selling more. Fucking woeful.

Yeah fuck that.

Our daily thing is all very lighthearted so it might be that in the Plague Times to come it's a pleasant diversion.

[Boydy]

That video of all the celebs singing 'Imagine'.

:vomit:

[Lee]

With the tube closures, isn't everybody just going to pile on to the lines still running and make it worse?

In other news, I'm now self-isolating. Dry cough and shortness of breath. No fever. I've had the cough for a week and the shortness of breath since Monday, but work have been cunts about it.

'The guidance isn't clear enough, we're still working on a definition of a dry persistent cough and shortness of breath. We can't afford to lose people too quickly'. In a hospital, for fuck's sake. Anyway, I did the 111 quiz thing and it says stay at home for a week, so I am.

No idea if I have it or not. It does feel different from a normal winter cold, but not necessarily worse but for a bit of anxiety.

[Shindig]

That's the one thing I hate about this disease. The symptoms don't appear to be guaranteed.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The company president (80) has just informed us he is working from home. Rightly of course.

It's just the workforce who have effectively been told to come in until we get the virus and then get paid for 3 of the 14 days when we do.

I'm going to pin up our 'guidelines' at home on the wall so I remember what they thought of us.

[Boydy]

Just think, little Korea is probably taking it seriously.

[Manc]

In other weird news, I had my ex wife's partner giving me tips on what local shops stock toilet roll.

Cucked.

[niko_cee]

Michel Barnier has it.

:harold:

[CJay]

First death in Northern Ireland. Elderly with an underlying medical condition.

We don’t break out details of areas / cases for some stupid reason.

[Mellberg]

My oven's packed in. Just ordered an element for collection tomorrow at Currys. Could really do with that still being open. No oven during any potential lockdown = :(

[John Arne]

https://youtu.be/wnd1jKcfBRE

[CJay]

My oven's packed in. Just ordered an element for collection tomorrow at Currys. Could really do with that still being open. No oven during any potential lockdown = :(

Karma for all that shorting business. 😉

[Yevrah]

Michel Barnier has it.

:harold:

69, too.

[Yevrah]

We're going to hit 1,000 worldwide deaths in one day from this today, possibly by some margin.

[Magic]

3 more deaths in Scotland. 6 now.

[Alex]

I've been off work on regular, annual leave this week but they just rung me and told me that I don't have to come back next week if I don't want to because, as a diabetic, I fall into the same "at-risk" group as the pregnant ladies and whatnot, who have all been sent home.

It's a bit of a weird one because my diabetes is a strange, genetic case (it's a very rare kind of it, basically a genetic anomaly in the family that always made me likely to contract it as a young adult) and, other than taking a couple of tablets twice a day, I'm very fit and healthy and wouldn't consider myself at-risk in the slightest. I can't do my job from home either, so I'm essentially being offered an indefinite, paid holiday that I know most of my colleagues (many of whom are obviously my friends) aren't eligible for.

Because they apparently aren't enforcing this either, it's pretty much my own call to make, which makes things a bit awkward. As much as I know I should avoid other people as much as possible and jump at the chance I also know that I would feel guilty about not turning up when I feel fine, purely because I know a lot people will be doing just that. Which is stupid, I know. But true.

I believe quite a few people are self-isolating this week anyway. So I'm hoping, combined with the people who will presumably be pulling out over the next couple of days to look after their kids now the schools are shutting, that they will just make the decision to close the office down for a bit and save me a bit of an awkward decision to make.

[Lewis]

We have shut ourselves down indefinitely today, which kicks our job upgrades into the long grass yet a-fucking-gain.

[Shindig]

Man, that walk felt good. Couldn't get into town because a stabbing took place this morning but one of the lasses I talked to was trying to get into London before that place shuts. Tesco has nowt apart from tinned fruit, easter eggs and cleaning stuff. I made it out with a couple of ready meals and a few Pot Noodles.

This is the thing that forces me vegetarian, isn't it?

[Lewis]

I went to Morrisons on the way home because it's usually the quietest one, and other than some porridge and bread I could get everything I wanted. The only sausages left were the Heck chicken ones, and if you wanted steak you were stuck with fillet; but I get them anyway so lol at plebs. Enjoy your bread and my porridge.

[randomlegend]

I've been off work on regular, annual leave this week but they just rung me and told me that I don't have to come back next week if I don't want to because, as a diabetic, I fall into the same "at-risk" group as the pregnant ladies and whatnot, who have all been sent home.

It's a bit of a weird one because my diabetes is a strange, genetic case (it's a very rare kind of it, basically a genetic anomaly in the family that always made me likely to contract it as a young adult) and, other than taking a couple of tablets twice a day, I'm very fit and healthy and wouldn't consider myself at-risk in the slightest. I can't do my job from home either, so I'm essentially being offered an indefinite, paid holiday that I know most of my colleagues (many of whom are obviously my friends) aren't eligible for.

Because they apparently aren't enforcing this either, it's pretty much my own call to make, which makes things a bit awkward. As much as I know I should avoid other people as much as possible and jump at the chance I also know that I would feel guilty about not turning up when I feel fine, purely because I know a lot people will be doing just that. Which is stupid, I know. But true.

I believe quite a few people are self-isolating this week anyway. So I'm hoping, combined with the people who will presumably be pulling out over the next couple of days to look after their kids now the schools are shutting, that they will just make the decision to close the office down for a bit and save me a bit of an awkward decision to make.

Take it and don't feel guilty. Whether or not you're usually well, the fact you have any type of diabetes means you will be more vulnerable to a greater or lesser extent. It's just not worth the risk.

[niko_cee]

We're going to hit 1,000 worldwide deaths in one day from this today, possibly by some margin.

You're going to need Italy to go big again to hit that target, Spain have underperformed.

[bruhnaldo]

I just heard one of the CEO/CFO guys talk about how we have one being tested in Room 11 in the ER.

I say it with specifics because my thought is if he was that specific about it they must already know.

At my mother's facility they also have one now that HAS tested positive.

I'm really worried for my mom tbh. Can someone tell me if this thing would go through like the vents? I know it's airborne and that sounds insane but I'd feel better knowing she's not sitting in her office like a death trap.

[Boydy]

Apparently there's 'zero prospect' of a lockdown of London meaning there'd be limits on travel in and out of it.

What's the fucking point then?

All the younger people who live there will just end up migrating back to their parents' houses taking the thing all over the fucking country.

[Yevrah]

You're going to need Italy to go big again to hit that target, Spain have underperformed.

That's some good news then.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Our MD just sent an email round saying that it's now casual attire until further notice. That should help protect the staff at least, this virus is famously reluctant to infect scruffy people.

[Adramelch]

I just heard one of the CEO/CFO guys talk about how we have one being tested in Room 11 in the ER.

I say it with specifics because my thought is if he was that specific about it they must already know.

At my mother's facility they also have one now that HAS tested positive.

I'm really worried for my mom tbh. Can someone tell me if this thing would go through like the vents? I know it's airborne and that sounds insane but I'd feel better knowing she's not sitting in her office like a death trap.

It's not exactly airborne in the way measles and the likes are. It only persists for a few seconds in the air before going down.

[Alex]

Our MD just sent an email round saying that it's now casual attire until further notice. That should help protect the staff at least, this virus is famously reluctant to infect scruffy people.

:D / :face:

We used to get this quite a lot at our place. Whenever any sort of remotely testing situation arose the response would be to relax the dress code, as if they were dealing with a gang of school-age kids for whom the prospect of "non-uniform day" would be some sort of exciting novelty. I always found it really patronising and ignored it. They've since abandoned the idea of a dress-code altogether, so now they've got nothing.

And I'm talking in the event of something like an extended period of heavy snow making it difficult to get to work here. Obviously it's absurd on a whole other level in this situation.

[phonics]

1240646692917084160

I'm no conspiracy theorist but I think Bob Iger might have developed the Coronavirus. Stepping down as CEO like a week before everything kicked off.

[bruhnaldo]

Disney going tits up would probably destroy Florida's economy but fuck it

[Ian]

Our MD just sent an email round saying that it's now casual attire until further notice. That should help protect the staff at least, this virus is famously reluctant to infect scruffy people.

Incredible.

How do you think things would be going if you were still working with the Koreans?

[Boydy]

1240639311000846336

We're all fucked.

[John Arne]

A whole apartment block in District 2 had just been locked down due to a British pilot testing positive. That's the second apartment block in lockdown.

When we say lockdown.... Actual lockdown. Security outside the building refusing to allow anyone to leave for 14 days.

[phonics]

Going up to my local shop tomorrow to buy a basketball and shoot 100 3 point shots a day and note how many I hit. I'm going absolutely mental.

[Yevrah]

Right, for the last two days I've been dealing with various response meetings while trying to pull together a forecast of what this might do to our business, against some assumptions given by group about the impact on revenue.

Now, you might think that's the stereotypical money grabbing corporate approach, but far from it, every single conversation we've had has been with the objective of keeping employees safe, while keeping the business going, so that everyone has a job when this thing is over.

We as a business, due to the nature of what we do, are less exposed than other businesses and are in a good liquidity position, but that doesn't last forever.

The conclusion I've come to is that unless a vaccine is found, tested and administered successfully, faster that at any point in all of human history, this is going to take society, as we know it, down. Down. Dead. Finished.

Unemployment will be at 90%, food will be in very short supply, money will be worthless and law and order will be gone, which will kill many more people than the actual pandemic itself.

This is an existential crisis and one that is only solved by either a quick vaccine, social distancing (on a scale that a population that aren't even taking this seriously cannot pull off) or by doing something utterly unpalatable.

[bruhnaldo]

That's a good idea but what if there's coronas on the court like how long does it stay on a surface like what happens if i dribble the ball into some coronas

[Andy]

Interest rates down to 0.1%

Can they go lower? I seem to remember there was a real chance of it happening in 2008. What would it mean for the economy if they went in to negative percentages?

[John Arne]

29 new deaths in the UK today. Aged 47-96. 17 of them in London.

[Yevrah]

29 new deaths in the UK today. Aged 47-96. 17 of them in London.

That's low. Fingers crossed harder than they ever have been before.

[Yevrah]

Interest rates down to 0.1%

Can they go lower? I seem to remember there was a real chance of it happening in 2008. What would it mean for the economy if they went in to negative percentages?

It's the lowest level in history. I guess you could go to zero.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Incredible.

How do you think things would be going if you were still working with the Koreans?

No idea but I'm sure facemasks would be involved.

[Lewis]

Right, for the last two days I've been dealing with various response meetings while trying to pull together a forecast of what this might do to our business, against some assumptions given by group about the impact on revenue.

Now, you might think that's the stereotypical money grabbing corporate approach, but far from it, every single conversation we've had has been with the objective of keeping employees safe, while keeping the business going, so that everyone has a job when this thing is over.

We as a business, due to the nature of what we do, are less exposed than other businesses and are in a good liquidity position, but that doesn't last forever.

The conclusion I've come to is that unless a vaccine is found, tested and administered successfully, faster that at any point in all of human history, this is going to take society, as we know it, down. Down. Dead. Finished.

Unemployment will be at 90%, food will be in very short supply, money will be worthless and law and order will be gone, which will kill many more people than the actual pandemic itself.

This is an existential crisis and one that is only solved by either a quick vaccine, social distancing (on a scale that a population that aren't even taking this seriously cannot pull off) or by doing something utterly unpalatable.

If it did get to that point we would regret not just letting it kill a few hundred thousand people.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah, there would come a point where the oldies have to go.

[Lewis]

I saw it put neatly on Twitter the other day along the lines of testing how far you can push ninety-nine per cent of people to save the remaining one per cent. If the circumstances outlined in Operation Yevrahtossa looked like coming to pass you would basically have to release all constraints and just let people chance their own health until such time as it just fucks off.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If the 1% were kids it would be a tougher proposition, but these are the nearly-dead too.

[Magic]

Lol some clown wanted a face to face meeting tomorrow for his 6 user business, and our MD chastised us for not accepting it. Fucking cunt, can't wait to hand in my notice.

[Luca]

Interest rates down to 0.1%

Can they go lower? I seem to remember there was a real chance of it happening in 2008. What would it mean for the economy if they went in to negative percentages?

The intended effect would be to 'super-stimulate' spending - practically it means that each individual institution is being charged to store money at the BoE, and in a perfect world that charge is passed down to consumers (so that, instead of paying you some marginal % on your deposits, they charge you for storage). The idea is to 1) get you the consumer to spend more, and 2) to get banks to make more loans so that companies can spend on projects, because at negative rates projects look more profitable (i.e., if you're literally losing money by just holding it, you might take a punt on some project that you wouldn't have otherwise).

I suspect that in reality the effect will be tepid, because there are huge structural barriers limiting spending/new project development at the personal and corporate level (i.e., social distancing, volatility, uncertainty). But it really is an open question. Not that this would be a palatable option in the current climate, but companies theoretically could just pour some of their cash reserves into buybacks (the traditional alternative to investing in new projects) if they are too uncertain to make investments at this stage...

EDIT: Keep in mind that I'm not a central bank economist, I'm Yevrah...

[Andy]

Right, for the last two days I've been dealing with various response meetings while trying to pull together a forecast of what this might do to our business, against some assumptions given by group about the impact on revenue.

Now, you might think that's the stereotypical money grabbing corporate approach, but far from it, every single conversation we've had has been with the objective of keeping employees safe, while keeping the business going, so that everyone has a job when this thing is over.

We as a business, due to the nature of what we do, are less exposed than other businesses and are in a good liquidity position, but that doesn't last forever.

The conclusion I've come to is that unless a vaccine is found, tested and administered successfully, faster that at any point in all of human history, this is going to take society, as we know it, down. Down. Dead. Finished.

Unemployment will be at 90%, food will be in very short supply, money will be worthless and law and order will be gone, which will kill many more people than the actual pandemic itself.

This is an existential crisis and one that is only solved by either a quick vaccine, social distancing (on a scale that a population that aren't even taking this seriously cannot pull off) or by doing something utterly unpalatable.

This is utterly terrifying. Who do you work for?

[Pepe]

Fakecab.

[Lewis]

If we're all doomed I think he should tell us about that sitcom idea he had.

[Adamski]

I had another little girl today. Sounds like it was great timing, they’ve just banned partners from the wards about 2 hours after we came out of theatre.

[Yevrah]

If it did get to that point we would regret not just letting it kill a few hundred thousand people.

That's what I meant about doing something utterly unpalatable, there's a very real possibility we're ultimately going to have to.

[Pepe]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/

[Disco]

John Lewis have just cancelled all work/visits to anyone's home, feels like they've been tipped off to me.

[Yevrah]

This is utterly terrifying. Who do you work for?

A group of Builder's Merchants, but that's not really the important bit. Nobody can survive this for a sustained period of time, other than those businesses that offer a service that would thrive in this environment, but even they won't if money doesn't matter anymore.

[Yevrah]

29 new deaths in the UK today. Aged 47-96. 17 of them in London.


That's low. Fingers crossed harder than they ever have been before.

Actually, this is dreadful news. As I'm now hearing, anecdotally at any rate, that some people think we've peaked as a result.

[Lewis]

I reckon the virus has seen what it's up against in Britain and seen its arse. What a cowardly little cunt weed. :lol:

[Pepe]

This is like FM for Team Panic:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

[Pepe]

Does anyone know how Madagascar is doing, btw?

[phonics]

Going up to my local shop tomorrow to buy a basketball and shoot 100 3 point shots a day and note how many I hit. I'm going absolutely mental.

Every shop that could potentially sell a basketball is shut. I'm about 72 hours from running through the streets windmilling my penis at passers by.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Does anyone know how Madagascar is doing, btw?

No confirmed cases and they turned away a cruise ship. They're old hands at this lark.

[Mellberg]

Yevrah goes into a meeting at a builder's merchants, comes out and has ended society.

[Alex]

Every shop that could potentially sell a basketball is shut. I'm about 72 hours from running through the streets windmilling my penis at passers by.

Probably a bulletproof strategy for maintaining an acceptable level of social distance when out and about.

[mugbull]

The intended effect would be to 'super-stimulate' spending - practically it means that each individual institution is being charged to store money at the BoE, and in a perfect world that charge is passed down to consumers (so that, instead of paying you some marginal % on your deposits, they charge you for storage). The idea is to 1) get you the consumer to spend more, and 2) to get banks to make more loans so that companies can spend on projects, because at negative rates projects look more profitable (i.e., if you're literally losing money by just holding it, you might take a punt on some project that you wouldn't have otherwise).

I suspect that in reality the effect will be tepid, because there are huge structural barriers limiting spending/new project development at the personal and corporate level (i.e., social distancing, volatility, uncertainty). But it really is an open question. Not that this would be a palatable option in the current climate, but companies theoretically could just pour some of their cash reserves into buybacks (the traditional alternative to investing in new projects) if they are too uncertain to make investments at this stage...

EDIT: Keep in mind that I'm not a central bank economist, I'm Yevrah...

Plenty of central banks have and have had negative interest rates, but they haven't impacted inflation - or much else - at all. To me trying to approach solving this issue with monetary policy is absolutely retarded anyway and the Fed's approach has probably only caused more hysteria than if they hadn't done anything.

And John Arne I admit i was wrong there

[Luca]

Plenty of central banks have and have had negative interest rates, but they haven't impacted inflation - or much else - at all. To me trying to approach solving this issue with monetary policy is absolutely retarded anyway and the Fed's approach has probably only caused more hysteria than if they hadn't done anything.

And John Arne I admit i was wrong there

I don't know if it's plenty...I can think of Japan and (very briefly) the ECB in recent memory, and certainly never in a scenario quite like this with the same structural barriers to spending. Old mate Bernanke seemed to be a fan post-crisis, but it obviously never got there. But yes, the outcomes have not been particularly encouraging in the "best" of times.

Incidentally, I totally agree with you that trying to monetary policy your way out of this is laughable. It's a fiscal crisis, not a monetary one.

[Shindig]

I reckon the virus has seen what it's up against in Britain and seen its arse. What a cowardly little cunt weed. :lol:

Let's err... just see if this is a trend first. We went lower earlier in the week before increasing the next day. We'll only really know where we stand when the confirmed cases slow down.

[mugbull]

I don't know if it's plenty...I can think of Japan and (very briefly) the ECB in recent memory, and certainly never in a scenario quite like this with the same structural barriers to spending. Old mate Bernanke seemed to be a fan post-crisis, but it obviously never got there. But yes, the outcomes have not been particularly encouraging in the "best" of times.

Incidentally, I totally agree with you that trying to monetary policy your way out of this is laughable. It's a fiscal crisis, not a monetary one.

Switzerland, all the Scandi states, and the ECB still has a negative deposit rate. Plus Japan obviously who have been on it for like a decade. I know there's some more in Europe as well. Most people don't realize just how many different CBs are operating below the zero lower bound

[Foe]

I had another little girl today. Sounds like it was great timing, they’ve just banned partners from the wards about 2 hours after we came out of theatre.

Congratulations!

Interesting time to have a child... are parents/relatives going to be banned visiting?

[bruhnaldo]

Yevrah really is thriving off this shit wow. Death toll didn't give him what he wanted so he killed off society to quench his bloodthirst.

[Luca]

Switzerland, all the Scandi states, and the ECB still has a negative deposit rate. Plus Japan obviously who have been on it for like a decade. I know there's some more in Europe as well. Most people don't realize just how many different CBs are operating below the zero lower bound

Although keep in mind that the ECB's deposit rate isn't the main source of liquidity in the system, so for all intents and purposes it's 0 (the MRO rate), and Japan is only negative on excess reserves. Is Switzerland negative on deposit or on central bank lending as well?

[Mike]

Work as normal next week, think we’re expecting around 70% attendance. Some talk of working the Easter holiday.

[Lee]

There's no point looking at current death numbers unless you want to know what was going on a couple of weeks ago. They're going to get shitter for ages yet. New cases is the one to watch. They'll carry on going up for a while as well but at least it's recent data.

I understand the horror at yesterday's Italian deaths, for example, but they only tell us it was really shit a while ago. Combine that with the fact the expected peak there is between this time next week and mid-April (to account for differences in when various lockdown elements were implemented in different places) and you can expect them to mount up for a while yet. They are at least off the 33% exponential curve now and getting further from it each day so we can have some confidence the peak is approaching.

The predicted numbers of death, and duration of disease in its current form, need to be taken with a pinch of salt too. We might end up with as few as 9,000 dead or we could get into the hundreds of thousands but we don't really know. Swine flu was modelled as doing in 65,000 in the UK. It didn't get out of the hundreds. It might (well it definitely will, eventually) mutate. Viruses normally mutate into weaker versions because killing hosts isn't very good for helping them spread, which is sort of the point of their existence. That happened to SARS and it never came back. This virus is related to SARS. The rate of infection might slow down more quickly than expected because there might be loads of people who are asymptomatic (there's already some good testing in Iceland suggesting this might be the case) and so we might already be seeing a level of herd immunity beyond what's expected. We might get our hands on an effective existing drug rather in lieu of a vaccine. Experimental use of existing drugs on Covid-19 patients has already seen good results (all 40 patients given an anti-malarial in France were cured in 6 days) and we're starting a trial of something else in the UK next week.

The modelling looks grim but is only as good as the assumptions made. It's right that the assumptions are worst-case at the moment because we know fuck all. But clever people are learning about it all the time and although life is probably going to change for an extended period it's probably not going to be end of days stuff either.

[niko_cee]

The conclusion I've come to is that unless a vaccine is found, tested and administered successfully, faster that at any point in all of human history, this is going to take society, as we know it, down. Down. Dead. Finished.

Unemployment will be at 90%, food will be in very short supply, money will be worthless and law and order will be gone, which will kill many more people than the actual pandemic itself.

This is an existential crisis and one that is only solved by either a quick vaccine, social distancing (on a scale that a population that aren't even taking this seriously cannot pull off) or by doing something utterly unpalatable.

If this were in anyway true, or likely, which I doubt, wouldn't it be better just to take the deaths and carry on as normal?

[Magic]

Yevrah goes into a meeting at a builder's merchants, comes out and has ended society.

:D

It's hilarious, and actually far more engaging than the crisis itself.

[Giggles]

New levels from Yev today :drool:

I really hope he’s only hit about 7/10 because it’s nearly making this all worthwhile.

[Yevrah]

If this were in anyway true, or likely, which I doubt, wouldn't it be better just to take the deaths and carry on as normal?

That's the utterly unpalatable bit, which we'll do if we have to.

[Yevrah]

There's no point looking at current death numbers unless you want to know what was going on a couple of weeks ago. They're going to get shitter for ages yet. New cases is the one to watch. They'll carry on going up for a while as well but at least it's recent data.

I understand the horror at yesterday's Italian deaths, for example, but they only tell us it was really shit a while ago. Combine that with the fact the expected peak there is between this time next week and mid-April (to account for differences in when various lockdown elements were implemented in different places) and you can expect them to mount up for a while yet. They are at least off the 33% exponential curve now and getting further from it each day so we can have some confidence the peak is approaching.

The predicted numbers of death, and duration of disease in its current form, need to be taken with a pinch of salt too. We might end up with as few as 9,000 dead or we could get into the hundreds of thousands but we don't really know. Swine flu was modelled as doing in 65,000 in the UK. It didn't get out of the hundreds. It might (well it definitely will, eventually) mutate. Viruses normally mutate into weaker versions because killing hosts isn't very good for helping them spread, which is sort of the point of their existence. That happened to SARS and it never came back. This virus is related to SARS. The rate of infection might slow down more quickly than expected because there might be loads of people who are asymptomatic (there's already some good testing in Iceland suggesting this might be the case) and so we might already be seeing a level of herd immunity beyond what's expected. We might get our hands on an effective existing drug rather in lieu of a vaccine. Experimental use of existing drugs on Covid-19 patients has already seen good results (all 40 patients given an anti-malarial in France were cured in 6 days) and we're starting a trial of something else in the UK next week.

The modelling looks grim but is only as good as the assumptions made. It's right that the assumptions are worst-case at the moment because we know fuck all. But clever people are learning about it all the time and although life is probably going to change for an extended period it's probably not going to be end of days stuff either.

All great points. I guess the bit I struggle to reconcile when it comes to ignoring the deaths now (I appreciate they're a symptom of what was happening rather than what is) when we're already seeing a fair few and a significant amount of people are simply ignoring the advice.

[Magic]

I kind of want a MASSIVE number posted by London so it sends him to 11/10, before settling down to a damp squib.

[Yevrah]

Did Boris genuinely just say he'll never close the underground? Did I hear that right?

[Yevrah]

I kind of want a MASSIVE number posted by London so it sends him to 11/10, before settling down to a damp squib.

I genuinely hope it ends up like that, I just can't see how what we're doing will lead to that.

EDIT: As a damp squib, not mass death.

[bruhnaldo]

My friend juts text me we have a lower average age of infected than any other country at the moment.

We movin up the table soon boys :drool:

[Yevrah]

That last question is the best one that's been asked so far, in any press conference.

Absolute zinger.

[Lee]

And they don't have an answer. Why mention 12 weeks in the first place?

[Yevrah]

Blew the 12 weeks bullshit out of the water. Car crash.

[Boydy]

What was the question and answer?

[Lee]

Blew the 12 weeks bullshit out of the water. Car crash.

The thing is, there is some tentative evidence from China (lol) and Italy which points that way. So quote it. The problem is it then attracts questions as to why we aren't closing down in the same way they have and he doesn't want to answer them.

He also definitely doesn't want to do these every day, the lying fucker.

[Yevrah]

And they don't have an answer. Why mention 12 weeks in the first place?

I think he was trying to appease the financial markets.

Looks positive, no?

https://i.postimg.cc/NjhntntM/Coronavirus-2.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

Backfired spectacularly.

What the fuck is going on here?

[Lee]

Why ask the journalists if it's okay to move to more remote conferences? Either that's the science or it isn't, and if it is then the journalists can fuck off.

[Boydy]

He also definitely doesn't want to do these every day, the lying fucker.

This is what pisses me off so much. This cunt wanted the job so fucking bad and now he can barely even be arsed to pretend he wants to actually do it.

[Yevrah]

What was the question and answer?

He claimed we could turn the tide in 12 weeks at the start.

He was then asked at the end what that actually meant. He couldn't answer and the scientists didn't want to.

Absolute shambles. Couple that with no intention to close London in any way whatsoever and I can't see how we're not fucking this harder than everywhere, with the possible exception of Italy.

EDIT: Fuck it. How can it not be worse than Italy?

[Manc]

Witty is a robot. More of him please.

[Shindig]

Okay, so the UK's deaths are level with yesterday's number. Oh, the wikipedia page now has an age chart. Old data, mind. From the 9th (2,101 cases)

https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom/0/b2d0d53f524d981738f0e1ceab72ad17f5a40806.png

39.8% of cases were above 70. 640-ish cases.

[Yevrah]

The more I think about it, the more I think they're actually still going for the herd immunity approach.

[Lee]

He claimed we could turn the tide in 12 weeks at the start.

He was then asked at the end what that actually meant. He couldn't answer and the scientists didn't want to.

Absolute shambles. Couple that with no intention to close London in any way whatsoever and I can't see how we're not fucking this harder than everywhere, with the possible exception of Italy.

I think the scientists probably just didn't want to undermine him in that environment. 12 weeks does make sense in the context of the modelling but what people are going to have to realise is that the purpose of what we're being asked to do isn't to kill this thing but to reduce its impact by spreading the load. So we might see the rate of infection plateau in two weeks, which Vallance has now suggested twice. But a flat peak is a long peak so we'll likely see a high case and death numbers for many weeks before increased immunity and some seasonality kick in.

By the end of June we might just start seeing that (according to the data) but even then restrictions aren't just going to be lifted wholesale. By saying we'll 'turn the tide' by the end of June he's made a promise he can't keep, which is why he shat himself at that question. Not like Boris.

[7om]

A group of Builder's Merchants, but that's not really the important bit. Nobody can survive this for a sustained period of time, other than those businesses that offer a service that would thrive in this environment, but even they won't if money doesn't matter anymore.

Can you explain how you arrived at the dissolution of society and 90% unemployment?

After 6 weeks of lockdown China is now reporting no new cases and people are returning to work. Not saying their numbers are necessarily real, but their society is starting to return to some form of normality.

[Yevrah]

I think the scientists probably just didn't want to undermine him in that environment. 12 weeks does make sense in the context of the modelling but what people are going to have to realise is that the purpose of what we're being asked to do isn't to kill this thing but to reduce its impact by spreading the load. So we might see the rate of infection plateau in two weeks, which Vallance has now suggested twice. But a flat peak is a long peak so we'll likely see a high case and death numbers for many weeks before increased immunity and some seasonality kick in.

By the end of June we might just start seeing that (according to the data) but even then restrictions aren't just going to be lifted wholesale. By saying we'll 'turn the tide' by the end of June he's made a promise he can't keep, which is why he shat himself at that question. Not like Boris.

Course, you could see the look on their faces. He shafted them and they didn't want to retaliate, but how the hell did it get to that stage? We also appear to be back at where we were a week ago, in that we're going to somehow suppress the peak by not actually doing anywhere near enough to suppress the peak.

[Yevrah]

Can you explain how you arrived at the dissolution of society and 90% unemployment?

After 6 weeks of lockdown China is now reporting no new cases and people are returning to work. Not saying their numbers are necessarily real, but their society is starting to return to some form of normality.

Because they locked shit down, we haven't and seemingly we won't. Why would anyone be comparing us to the supposed success China have had when we haven't followed the same approach?

[bruhnaldo]

Okay, so the UK's deaths are level with yesterday's number. Oh, the wikipedia page now has an age chart. Old data, mind. From the 9th (2,101 cases)

https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom/0/b2d0d53f524d981738f0e1ceab72ad17f5a40806.png

39.8% of cases were above 70. 640-ish cases.

Surely this is all fucked though cause young people aren't getting tested at the same rate as the older folks, rght?

[Yevrah]

The government's approach with distancing and supporting the economy has been dreadful, but if people can't see that, I might have gone as far as I can with this. I may just have to carry on isolating while I pretend it isn't happening.

Seems easier that way.

[phonics]

I'm trying to ignore the global pandemic tearing society apart by playing Resident Evil 3.

[bruhnaldo]

Every sniffle or cough I think "welp, it's time."

This is torture and I hate everything.

[7om]

Because they locked shit down, we haven't and seemingly we won't. Why would anyone be comparing us to the supposed success China have had when we haven't followed the same approach?

No, we're not at the level of China's interventions but what makes you think we wouldn't resort to that and instead let society break down?

[Yevrah]

No, we're not at the level of China's interventions but what makes you think we wouldn't resort to that and instead let society break down?

Did you actually read what I wrote? It's all covered.

[Lee]

China spent weeks lying about the existence of the thing before doing anything. We've put measures in which some data and other anecdotal stuff suggests is having some effect in stopping people hanging around others so much. The modelling of the flat peak is based on the current measures, weak as they might seem. It might all turn out to be bollocks but we're going to have to wait and see.

That said, they're obviously going to go in harder at some point. He keeps deliberately not ruling it out. Why it's not happening now is beyond me but that's probably because they're cleverer than me.

What I do know is that the people I care about have changed their behaviour a lot, so they've got as good a chance as anybody at not dying. Which leaves my most pressing problem as when I'm ever going to get abroad for a holiday again. Greece in June is obviously fucked. Going away in August remains just about within the realms of the possible but fuck knows really. Got a week in Cornwall booked for May which we can likely do if we just get beers and food in and go out to secluded places of which there are plenty now. Otherwise it's holidays in the garden for the foreseeable. Hope it's a nice summer.

[Giggles]

191 new cases and 1 new death today.

[7om]

Did you actually read what I wrote? It's all covered.

You said you had come to the conclusion that unless a vaccine is developed and administered fast we will see 90% unemployment and the death of society. I'm asking how you arrived at those conclusions.

[bruhnaldo]

This bickering isn't really entertaining or based on any actual logic so idk maybe abandon it.

[bruhnaldo]

"Unless we don't, we're all gonna die!" - this is what ya'll sound like

[phonics]

I'm trying to ignore the global pandemic tearing society apart by playing Resident Evil 3.

The zombies ate me and I died if you'd like to put that into your statistical database Yev.

[Yevrah]

That said, they're obviously going to go in harder at some point. He keeps deliberately not ruling it out. Why it's not happening now is beyond me but that's probably because they're cleverer than me.

They're cleverer than me too, but are they cleverer than all the other countries scientists who have advocated lock downs and actually done them? We are around 4 days behind the point when Italy locked the whole country down and as things stand now, London is open for business.

We're not testing the population anywhere near enough.
We've not locked anything down
We're not going to lock the tube down
We don't have enough ICU beds.
Our doctors don't have the right PPE
Our doctors aren't being tested and are being removed from the front line instead
Boris is actively lying to us about 12 weeks
Boris is not supporting the public - how are the people looking after their children for the next x weeks going to be paid?
Boris is not supporting business - how are those businesses that people are being told to stay away from going to cope? Repaying loans?

I sort of now start to see now how the left must feel when they listen to him. So many lies or untruths.

[Shindig]

Surely this is all fucked though cause young people aren't getting tested at the same rate as the older folks, rght?

Yes. Although we've been testing predominantly in the hospitals. So you can imagine the majority of the 70+ occupying a hospital bed. The younger ones might be family members, contacts or people returning from hotspots.

[Yevrah]

You said you had come to the conclusion that unless a vaccine is developed and administered fast we will see 90% unemployment and the death of society. I'm asking how you arrived at those conclusions.

Because the economy and society can't cope with perpetual semi-lockdown.

I also said, in the same post:



This is an existential crisis and one that is only solved by either a quick vaccine, social distancing (on a scale that a population that aren't even taking this seriously cannot pull off) or by doing something utterly unpalatable.

Maybe I should have been clearer, but I don't think we'll end up with society collapsing because we'll have to do the unpalatable bit eventually before it does. Which for the avoidance of any doubt, is letting a lot of people die to get out of this.

After today's press conference I think that might be our strategy again. The scientists are frothing at the gash to try out herd immunity and Boris doesn't want to tank the economy by actually locking down. Bar a vaccine, that's all that's left.

Is that clearer?

[Yevrah]

Today's message of "well done for locking down, we'll be done in 12 weeks" is manifestly not taking it seriously either and I don't see how it remotely helps. If anything it hinders getting those who weren't buying the seriousness of this off the streets.

And I've not left the house for three days, so I can't be sure what's going on outside, but judging by what's been posted on here and other places, it does seem that a lot of people aren't heeding the advice. Jim's still working in his office FFS.

Anecdotal stuff I know, but unless it's all not true, what on earth are we doing? Encouraging the deaths of the old and vulnerable? Maybe that's ultimately the right play, but let's call a spade a spade and not kid ourselves. Our efforts have seemingly been piss poor compared to other countries.

EDIT: Not having a dig at you there Jim, but your company.

[igor_balis]

https://scontent-lhr8-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/90399557_1156919224660546_3471065686703341568_n.jp g?_nc_cat=110&_nc_sid=b96e70&_nc_ohc=YhgaBTOt10kAX--HSEL&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-1.xx&oh=9e5ac9d706ac1cb92a4bcdcf610326f1&oe=5E99AE62

Just saw my dad post this on someone's FB post, finally some common sense. :uhoh:

[Giggles]

We’ve had evictions and rent increases banned for 3 months.
The leaving certificate oral exams have been cancelled with everyone getting full marks :cab:

[Lee]

They're cleverer than me too, but are they cleverer than all the other countries scientists who have advocated lock downs and actually done them? We are around 4 days behind the point when Italy locked the whole country down and as things stand now, London is open for business.

We're not testing the population anywhere near enough.
We've not locked anything down
We're not going to lock the tube down
We don't have enough ICU beds.
Our doctors don't have the right PPE
Our doctors aren't being tested and are being removed from the front line instead
Boris is actively lying to us about 12 weeks
Boris is not supporting the public - how are the people looking after their children for the next x weeks going to be paid?
Boris is not supporting business - how are those that people are being told to stay away from going to cope? Repaying loans?

I sort of now start to see now how the left must feel when they listen to him. So many lies or untruths.

London could well be our Lombardy. And Birmingham and the Black Country is starting to look bad. Obviously population density is a big factor.

What I don't understand is why we wouldn't just properly lockdown those places and prioritise them for testing. Vallance said today the test isn't technically difficult to produce, so requisition some manufacturing folk to mass produce, test those populations like mad. Let people out who test negative or who have had it so some semblance of economic and social life can be maintained within tight geographical bounds for a bit and cases will gradually start to drop as others with it are forced to stay in and get over it (in the great many cases) before they join their mates in doing stuff again. Institute regular testing for everybody somehow (temperature checks at work? send people home if they start coughing?) and isolate whatever small pockets of disease which inevitably show up. Then after two weeks or so they're sorted too.

You could gradually open up international travel again as well with some co-operation between countries. Test people before they get on a plane or whatever. Only allow travel to and from countries who have tested loads and so won't kill us all, which is obviously nowhere right now. It will take time but there's a route to some sort of normality.

Fuck knows why they're not going that way but I'd drive myself mental internally fighting that fight every day. I can only keep myself and the missus as safe as possible and do whatever it takes to make sure our folks are doing the same things for themselves. Life is a bit less exciting but there are worse things than being able to work from home and having a garden to sit about in when the sun comes out, while this all blows over. Which it will, eventually.

I guess that's something to look forward to. That first beer in a pub, goal at a football match, or beach somewhere hot are going to feel so fucking good. Which is why I'd like an honest answer about how long this is likely to take, however caveated it might be. I think people are going to need to see some end in sight, even if it's a distant one. At the minute everything is just on pause and it's shit.

[Shindig]

At least traffic wise, Durham seemed normal. They've updated the cases in your area lookup (with yesterday's data) and County Durham's now up to 3. 13 in Newcastle which still remains the biggest in the region. Boris' rhetoric should be harder. It's a bit like watching a parent suddenly say, "We'll see. We might get to Disneyland." instead of reaching into the back seat and slapping his kids.

Because the sooner all us cunts isolate and stop fucking about, the sooner we can go to Disneyland. Fuck Alton Towers.

[Boydy]

I'm with Yev, here. That message today is just going to encourage complacency when so many people already aren't taking this anywhere near seriously enough. And with no lockdowns or anything, I can't help but feel they are basically trying to their do their 'herd immunity' strategy by stealth.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My colleague who works in shipping was properly traumatised earlier, as she's a single mother and her 8yo is now needing to be looked after for potentially months. Management and even her line manager didn't seem to give a shit and the latter kept barking at her for a 'plan' to be in place by the end of the day, which made her even more upset.

Enter my lowly partner in the sales squadron, who, being an Italian hothead and quite good friends with her, unilaterally went straight in to the MD and demanded to know what he was going to do about it. Two hours later, as if by magic, Captain IT has built her a PC with all required software which she's taking home to be able to wfh. A somewhat inspiring turn of events, I must say.

It's amazing what can happen when people like MDs are actually forced into action to find creative ways to keep the various operational arms of the company running. What the fuck are they are thinking about the rest of the time? Is the art of top management literally just one long penny pinch? How did these people get their jobs in the first place with the leadership skills of a sherry trifle?

[Disco]

I can't believe there haven't been more stringent measures put in place to make people stay at home, there's far too many not taking this seriously and just wandering about as if it's not happening.

I also want to put the walking heart bypass in our office through a fucking window, he will not stop coming out with such pearls of wisdom as 'I'm a grown adult, I can make up my own mind on it' and 'if the government told us jumping in a river would cure it half of you would turn up soaking wet'. All of the people self isolating are apparently 'the usual suspects' which might be true but fuck me, you just have to take the hit on stuff like that at the moment. His wife works in a care home too so he's probably going to murder some grandparents before this is over.

[7om]

Because the economy and society can't cope with perpetual semi-lockdown.

I also said, in the same post:



Maybe I should have been clearer, but I don't think we'll end up with society collapsing because we'll have to do the unpalatable bit eventually before it does. Which for the avoidance of any doubt, is letting a lot of people die to get out of this.

After today's press conference I think that might be our strategy again. The scientists are frothing at the gash to try out herd immunity and Boris doesn't want to tank the economy by actually locking down. Bar a vaccine, that's all that's left.

Is that clearer?

So it won't be a breakdown of society, we will have to do "the unpalatable", and a vaccine is necessary because Boris won't go full shut down.

That seems like an awful lot of grey area for such black and white predictions.

[Yevrah]

London could well be our Lombardy. And Birmingham and the Black Country is starting to look bad. Obviously population density is a big factor.

What I don't understand is why we wouldn't just properly lockdown those places and prioritise them for testing. Vallance said today the test isn't technically difficult to produce, so requisition some manufacturing folk to mass produce, test those populations like mad. Let people out who test negative or who have had it so some semblance of economic and social life can be maintained within tight geographical bounds for a bit and cases will gradually start to drop as others with it are forced to stay in and get over it (in the great many cases) before they join their mates in doing stuff again. Institute regular testing for everybody somehow (temperature checks at work? send people home if they start coughing?) and isolate whatever small pockets of disease which inevitably show up. Then after two weeks or so they're sorted too.

You could gradually open up international travel again as well with some co-operation between countries. Test people before they get on a plane or whatever. Only allow travel to and from countries who have tested loads and so won't kill us all, which is obviously nowhere right now. It will take time but there's a route to some sort of normality.

Isn't this the approach China eventually took and South Korea likewise? If so, what frustrates me more than anything else about this is when people compare us to China, as if we're somehow doing the same thing, are on the same path and will therefore will get the same result.

We're not and unless the virus just magics itself away, we won't.

You're right though, I need to stop thinking about it. Ignoring things seems the much better option at the moment.

[Shindig]

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2020/3/19/8c9faa41-1c81-49d8-b1ff-e517cbcdd09f.png

Christ. No wonder it broke them.

[Lee]

Isn't this the approach China eventually took and South Korea likewise? If so, what frustrates me more than anything else about this is when people compare us to China, as if we're somehow doing the same thing, are on the same path and will therefore will get the same result.

We're not and unless the virus just magics itself away, we won't.

You're right though, I need to stop thinking about it. Ignoring things seems the much better option at the moment.

An email I've just had from work tells you why we're not going the South Korea/Singapore route:

"There is a critical shortage of viral swabs for testing of Covid-19. Currently we use two swabs- one for the nose and one for the throat. To maintain our ability to test patients, we are reducing the number of swabs to one. Please use the same swab for the throat and nose (swabbing the throat first before using the same swab in the nose). One swab will be enough for a standard respiratory viral panel and Covid-19 test."

[Shindig]

Have people panic bought cotton buds?

[Yeldoow]

An email I've just had from work tells you why we're not going the South Korea/Singapore route:

"There is a critical shortage of viral swabs for testing of Covid-19. Currently we use two swabs- one for the nose and one for the throat. To maintain our ability to test patients, we are reducing the number of swabs to one. Please use the same swab for the throat and nose (swabbing the throat first before using the same swab in the nose). One swab will be enough for a standard respiratory viral panel and Covid-19 test."

I'm sure when I was tested on Friday they only used one swab.

[SincereTheRebel]

Does Italy have a lot of old pussy?

[Lee]

On lockdown, the only reason I can think why they’re not going all in is because they think they’re close enough to a test which will show enough recovered/immune people to keep life ticking over on some level, and be able to identify those who definitely need to stay in.

The testing in Iceland is interesting on that front. They’ve tested 1% of the population (which is admittedly small) and found that of those with the disease about half have/had no symptoms. If that’s true elsewhere it’s much less deadly than we fear and lots of people currently semi-hibernating don’t need to be doing so.

I suppose the logical action from that is still some sort of lockdown, but it’s more targeted and probably more successful. If you tell somebody they’ve got it, even if they have no symptoms, they’re not going to go about risking killing others. The not knowing is the fucker. That’s one thing the PM has right,

[Lee]

I'm sure when I was tested on Friday they only used one swab.

It might be that they’ve now found that one swab is fine (we’d not resort to it otherwise). It was the phrase ‘critical shortage’ that caught my eye.

[Shindig]

They mentioned the antibody test today so they have to be pursuing it on some level.

[Yevrah]

So it won't be a breakdown of society, we will have to do "the unpalatable", and a vaccine is necessary because Boris won't go full shut down.

That seems like an awful lot of grey area for such black and white predictions.

It's quite straight forward. There are 4 ways the virus goes away:

1. We vaccinate against it
2. We stay inside until it's gone (not that simple I know, but for the purpose of brevity let's use that as a catch all term for proper isolation and testing, leading to a capacity to treat where possible and elimination through knowledge of where it actually is)
3. It kills everyone it can
4. The pixies ask it nicely to leave

Let's assume 4 won't happen.
1 takes time, which if we're on semi-lockdown for the duration and that duration is into next year will kill the economy. Particularly if other countries have managed to make 2 a success.
2 might work, but people need to disabuse themselves of the notion that that's what we're doing. We're manifestly not. Or not properly at least. And it doesn't strike me that we're going to.
3 by process of elimination, if we can't get a vaccine quick enough, is the only option left. Mixed in with some mitigation from our half arsed efforts at 2.

If I've misunderstood anything, shout.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Treating it with existing anti-malarial drugs sounds like an interesting development. If that succeeds and can be done on any kind of scale surely it would be, bear with me for this awful phrase, a game changer?

[Lee]

Treating it with existing anti-malarial drugs sounds like an interesting development. If that succeeds and can be done on any kind of scale surely it would be, bear with me for this awful phrase, a game changer?

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-lab-Sanofi-hypothetically-offers-millions-of-doses-of-potential-Covid-19-Plaquenil-anti-malaria-drug

A few small trials of the same drug in different countries have shown promise. It will obviously need testing more widely but given where we are then why the fuck not?

[Lewis]

The word in the work WhatsApp group is that we're out for three months, so obviously twelve weeks is about right.

[ScousePig]

Today's message of "well done for locking down, we'll be done in 12 weeks" is manifestly not taking it seriously either and I don't see how it remotely helps. If anything it hinders getting those who weren't buying the seriousness of this off the streets.

And I've not left the house for three days, so I can't be sure what's going on outside, but judging by what's been posted on here and other places, it does seem that a lot of people aren't heeding the advice. Jim's still working in his office FFS.

Anecdotal stuff I know, but unless it's all not true, what on earth are we doing? Encouraging the deaths of the old and vulnerable? Maybe that's ultimately the right play, but let's call a spade a spade and not kid ourselves. Our efforts have seemingly been piss poor compared to other countries.

EDIT: Not having a dig at you there Jim, but your company.

Well schools are closing. Except they're not, as on Monday all staff will be attending, and it remains to be seen what percentage of children are still in.

[Manc]

How many deaths justify the country being on lockdown for 100 days?

[Yevrah]

How many deaths justify the country being on lockdown for 100 days?

I don't know, did you have a number in mind?

[Lewis]

A thousand a day.

[Ian]

My sister works for a kilt hire / formal-wear company and this afternoon they've laid off just over 50% of their staff. Not my sister, thankfully, and while a firm like that is absolutely boned during this situation it's still properly grim tidings.

[Bernanke]

Can confirm what Luca said before that I'm a fan of negative interest rates. I'm not an economist though, I'm Bernanke.

[Yevrah]

And that's a perfect example of what I mean about this killing the economy and society.

I know people think I'm being an alarmist twat, but what are the other 50% of people that are still there going to do when it comes to hiring kilts and formal wear during a global pandemic while the country is on semi-lockdown for months on end?

There will be thousands upon thousands of businesses and millions of people in the same boat right now, and this hasn't even properly kicked off yet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What the government need to do is create some kind of temporary national logistical corps (complete with shit uniform) and take companies' workers on loan for a national living wage to fill it.

I haven't phrased that well as I'm on a phone, but it works in my head.

[niko_cee]

Just let the co-morbitities (god I love that term) die.

It's what Bentham would have done. It's not 'unpalatable' it's utilitarian.

Spent your life smoking and getting type 2 diabetes? Well, bad luck being old. Either get in the cupboard or get in the box.

[Spikey M]

Does Italy have a lot of old pussy?

Had.

[Lewis]

My model previously had Yevrah two weeks behind the government in his thinking, but after inputting the data from today I've reduced that time frame to ten days.

[Kikó]

The governments of the world basically need to prop up all business and pause normality until this is resolved. Bring in some universal wage so we don't need to work and ride it out.

[CJay]

We currently have 12/14 staff attending our office. 11 of those instantly have the ability to work from home with no additional measure required, but for some reason that’s not happening. I can understand one or two needing to be in the office on any day, but there’s no need for all of them. They’re all sitting in our tiny kitchen at lunchtime too, while I dine in my office in peace. I can’t work from home so I’m stuck working through this apparently despite the office being closed to the public and me therefore having no work to do.

And Limavady is as busy during the day as ever. Old people walking the streets everywhere you look. Very few here taking it seriously.

[Lewis]

The Irish choking on their precious 'craic'.

[Alex]

Can confirm what Luca said before that I'm a fan of negative interest rates. I'm not an economist though, I'm Bernanke.

:D

If we make it through this then we definitely sort the next round of board funding out by launching a TTH branded range of "I'm Yevrah" t-shirts and mugs.

[Giggles]

The Irish choking on their precious 'craic'.

There’s nothing Irish about Limavady, or CJay.

[Vercetti]

I ventured into my local Iceland tonight. I lolled (to myself, I didn't want to look like a mental) at all the empty freezers and shelves. And their septuagenarian security guard.

The hoarding wankers left shitloads of Iceland's quality chicken strips behind, though, so I made out like a bandit, in the end.

[Giggles]

Legislation being passed to shut pubs and even stamp on house parties. Had to be done.

[CJay]

There’s nothing Irish about Limavady, or CJay.

Eh? I’m very much Irish, born and bred.

[Giggles]

You’re not really though, you just happened to be born here.

[randomlegend]

It might be that they’ve now found that one swab is fine (we’d not resort to it otherwise). It was the phrase ‘critical shortage’ that caught my eye.

They were (we still are as far as I know) running the covid test on one swab and the rest of the standard viral PCR panel on another.

[Yevrah]

Why is today's deathcount in the UK now 40?

[CJay]

You’re not really though, you just happened to be born here.

And lived there for 24 odd years before moving. Not sure how you’re defining being Irish. Having a surname with an O or a Mc? :cab:

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was 33 earlier. Perhaps seven more people died.

[Yevrah]

It was 33 earlier. Perhaps seven more people died.

Are we frigging figures ahead of press conferences?

[Jimmy Floyd]

That's what I would do. Hide a few extra corpses in primetime so people hear a lower number today and a lower number tomorrow.

[Giggles]

And lived there for 24 odd years before moving. Not sure how you’re defining being Irish. Having a surname with an O or a Mc? :cab:

Mc definitely wouldn’t guarantee it. Actually being Irish is being Irish. You’re a loyalist Briton are you not?

Anyway, not the thread probably. I don’t even know if Lewis was referring to you/Limavady, maybe his anti Irish alarm went off and he had went too long without posting something.

[niko_cee]

If you'd ask me to guess where (or what) Limavady was, a town in Northern Ireland would have been fairly low down on the list.

[Boydy]

He's from Donegal.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

How persistent is the cough supposed to be?

And is it one of those that feels like there's a bit of an irritant in your throat but that feeling never goes away? Got what I'd describe as the beginning of one of them this evening, can hold it in but the irritated feeling gets worse.

[Lewis]

Mc definitely wouldn’t guarantee it. Actually being Irish is being Irish. You’re a loyalist Briton are you not?

Anyway, not the thread probably. I don’t even know if Lewis was referring to you/Limavady, maybe his anti Irish alarm went off and he had went too long without posting something.

Sounds like you're the one with the anti-Irish alarm fella. :dirk:

[Lee]

How persistent is the cough supposed to be?

And is it one of those that feels like there's a bit of an irritant in your throat but that feeling never goes away? Got what I'd describe as the beginning of one of them this evening, can hold it in but the irritated feeling gets worse.

The 111 website describes it as either ‘coughing a lot for more than an hour’ or ‘3 or more coughing episodes over 24 hours’. Which is pretty fucking broad.

[Magic]

How persistent is the cough supposed to be?

And is it one of those that feels like there's a bit of an irritant in your throat but that feeling never goes away? Got what I'd describe as the beginning of one of them this evening, can hold it in but the irritated feeling gets worse.

It's constant coughing with nothing really coming up or in your throat. Dry as fuck.

[Foe]

Does it feel phlegmy?

Apparently if you’re going to die there’s no phlegm.

[Giggles]

Does it feel phlegmy?

Apparently if you’re going to die there’s no phlegm.

We were originally told that and now it’s changed to any cough, not necessarily dry.

[SvN]

And that's a perfect example of what I mean about this killing the economy and society.

I know people think I'm being an alarmist twat, but what are the other 50% of people that are still there going to do when it comes to hiring kilts and formal wear during a global pandemic while the country is on semi-lockdown for months on end?

There will be thousands upon thousands of businesses and millions of people in the same boat right now, and this hasn't even properly kicked off yet.

This is the main reason I felt so annoyed by the seemingly gleeful attitude of staff being told they were working from home. We're probably mostly fine if it lasts 3 months, but beyond that and we're talking about at least one redundancy, maybe more.

We are fortunate that we don't really rely on new business to pay the bills, because we'd be absolutely fucked if we were.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

It's constant coughing with nothing really coming up or in your throat. Dry as fuck.


Does it feel phlegmy?

Apparently if you’re going to die there’s no phlegm.
Definitely dry but not exactly what I'd call a major cough. Feels more like a cough is required to try and clear the irritated feeling rather than uncontrollable coughing itself.

Will see how it develops. I'd rather it got worse or fucked off entirely so it's at least obvious.

[Vercetti]

Gary Neville is pretty brave, sitting that close to Carragher on Sky with all this going on.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Business is actually booming for us, so much so that the two corpses in the sales department who I mentioned would be sacked before me have now been told to get the steel toe cap boots out and help in the warehouse until further notice, as the current staff can't cope with the number of orders going through.

I can't think of a more likely environment to catch the coronavirus than our warehouse, so godspeed to them both. At least they can't be as useless out there as they are in the office (or can they?)

[Spikey M]

My work has been absolutely horrendous this week. The joy of working with often vulnerable people is that they (the ones that work) often have zero hour contracts or dodgy 'self employed' jobs. Tears and tantrums all day every day. Sheer panic.

[Giggles]

LiveScore is fair fucking grim these days.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51968302

Fuck you Netflix.

[randomlegend]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51968302

Fuck you Netflix.

It's better than the internet going to shit, you absolute retard.

[mugbull]

That was the most Mahow post ever

[Luca]

The Palestine Gaza Strip Cup is in full force.

[Boydy]

My cousin's just told me my aunt has a 'chest infection'.

:uhoh:

[Luca]

Girlfriend’s aunt and uncle in Croydon have it. :(

[Lewis]

Mahow this is the perfect time for you to be getting out and about. Go out into the town centre every day, and then as the crowds start to come back over the coming months it will wean you off being a fanny.

[Boydy]

1240775045477261318

This thread of the paper's front pages. We're doomed.

[Lewis]

As if that loser blog still knocks up a 'front page'.

[igor_balis]

Mahow this is the perfect time for you to be getting out and about. Go out into the town centre every day, and then as the crowds start to come back over the coming months it will wean you off being a fanny.

Extreme CBT, I like it.

[7om]

There’s some shady work being published right now. There’s one paper doing the rounds that hydroxycloroquine (an anti malarial) recovered patients faster and reduced symptoms. The problem being any patient who went into intensive care was not included in the pissing analysis. Now orders for this HCQ are going through the roof in the US.

[Lewis]

That will have been Mellin as well the shithouse.

[Queenslander]

40000 people have been tested in NSW for 352 confirmed with 53 community transmissions. 6 people have died.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-20/coronavirus-death-toll-rises-in-australia/12071910

[SincereTheRebel]

Mc definitely wouldn’t guarantee it. Actually being Irish is being Irish. You’re a loyalist Briton are you not?

Anyway, not the thread probably. I don’t even know if Lewis was referring to you/Limavady, maybe his anti Irish alarm went off and he had went too long without posting something.

Being Irish covers both parts of Ireland. Is that right?

[Yevrah]

The FTSE has improved this morning. They bought the 12 weeks to some extent then.

[Yevrah]

A somewhat less alarmist version of what I posted yesterday, but the same message is there in terms of the size of the problem we're facing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486

[Queenslander]

Being Irish covers both parts of Ireland. Is that right?

That ia fighting words to some.

[Spikey M]

I do enjoy the insistence that the whole island is called Ireland but that not all the people from there are Irish.

[Giggles]

I do enjoy the insistence that the whole island is called Ireland but that not all the people from there are Irish.

The countries are Ireland and the UK, islands are an irrelevance. The northeast has a monarchy, pays taxes to HMRC, and spends pounds sterling.



.

[Boydy]

The countries are Ireland and the UK, islands are an irrelevance. The northwest has a monarchy, pays taxes to HMRC, and spends pounds sterling.

Donegal has a monarch?!

[Manc]

Northern Ireland isn't a real place.

[Giggles]

Donegal has a monarch?!

:D shit, northeast of the island I mean. Cabin fever has the directions fucked up.

[Spikey M]

The countries are Ireland and the UK, islands are an irrelevance. The northeast has a monarchy, pays taxes to HMRC, and spends pounds sterling.



.

And Irish passports.

[Spikey M]

https://i.ibb.co/DRMQcKk/Screenshot-20200320-095221-Samsung-Internet.jpg

Special Dom.

[Yevrah]

We haven't closed the schools:


The government's advice is clear: if you can keep your children at home, do so. But key workers still have the right to send their children to school. These are workers in:

health and social care, including doctors, nurses, midwives, paramedics, social workers, care workers, and other frontline health and social care staff
education and childcare
key public services including those essential to the running of the justice system, religious staff, charities and workers delivering key frontline services, "those responsible for the management of the deceased", and journalists and broadcasters who provide public service broadcasting
local and national government
food and other necessary goods, including those involved in food production, processing, distribution, sale and delivery
public safety and national security, including police and support staff; Ministry of Defence civilians, contractor and armed forces personnel; fire and rescue service employees, border security, prison and probation staff and other national security roles
transport
utilities, communication and financial services

[SvN]

My wife just got told she won't be needed while this is going on, but will still be paid, which is good news.

[thommo]

Just got an e-mail through from the daycare we use - they'll be shut from Monday onwards. Unless I'm directed to work from home, this means either using up annual leave or taking TOFD without pay for the foreseeable future.

[Lee]

Are we not fucking past the point of people having the right to do stuff? Are we not listening to Italy?

People need to be told straight what this means now. We're in this for the long haul. We'll come out the other side but only if people take responsibility and the government takes a role in enforcing it. We've got maybe two years of this. If people behave like adults those two years will probably be a whole lot nicer, in that we'll only have intermittent lockdown and it will become increasingly targeted/localised as testing becomes more widespread.

It's still shit, but staying in is a price worth paying. If people carry on as they are then they'll soon find mum and dad are dead and it will be partly their fault. But at least they got to enjoy that pint.

[Queenslander]

At the pub again tonight and there are easily more than 100 people. Lol wuhan!

[bruhnaldo]

We haven't closed the schools:

Basically they need nannies otherwise the economy is gonna collapse is all I got outta this

[Jimmy Floyd]

It will need to be enforced. I'm meant to be seeing my parents tonight (at their home, 2 miles from mine). They are healthy and mid 60s so not a huge at risk category. They think me coming is no big deal but I think it is. I don't know. It's terrifying, not helped by the business-as-usual attitude at work.

[SvN]

My mum's been getting the bus to the osteopath. I managed to talk her down to a taxi (which I'm paying for) and reducing from 3 times a week to once.

[Baz]

We haven't closed the schools:Indeed. There was never any shred of anything to suggest they were. I wish people would stop saying it. And Boris saying it without providing any sort of actual plans or even advice is just diabolical.

If this does end up as bad as you think and that muppet ends up as some kind of hero, he’ll be an almost as much of a fraud cunt as Churchill.

[Ian]

:D shit, northeast of the island I mean. Cabin fever has the directions fucked up.

PM Sincere for Ireland facts if you need to brush up.

[Lee]

It will need to be enforced. I'm meant to be seeing my parents tonight (at their home, 2 miles from mine). They are healthy and mid 60s so not a huge at risk category. They think me coming is no big deal but I think it is. I don't know. It's terrifying, not helped by the business-as-usual attitude at work.

Because I've had some (admittedly light) symptoms I've told my parents - late 50s, reasonable enough health - that I won't be seeing them for a couple of weeks. My mum is my biggest worry. Whilst healthy day to day she's epileptic and her drugs are immunosuppressive, so she's basically stopping in for three months other than walks in the park or whatever. Other than the epilepsy her health is pretty robust. It's just there always exists the risk that she has multiple seizures in quick succession and needs a short hospital admission. I don't want her anywhere near a hospital while we are at the peak of this. My dad is a bit panicked by the whole thing. I'd rather him not feel as anxious about it as he is, but at least I know he'll keep mum in.

I'm calling getting out of this with my parents still okay a success. Obviously grandparents would be lovely too, but my remaining ones are old and ill to some degree, so they're at risk. They're being sensible at the moment though.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My last grandparent died in 2000 which, at the moment, I'm treating as a tremendous stroke of good fortune.