Coronavirus Death Thread

[Spikey M]

Starmer donning BoJo senseless as per usual. Glorious. :drool:

[Dave.]

Starmer donning BoJo senseless as per usual. Glorious. :drool:

To be fair, this isn't exactly difficult.

[Spikey M]

I've been coughing all day. Gonna have to get a test sent out. Fuck sake.

[Magic]

I've been coughing all day. Gonna have to get a test sent out. Fuck sake.

Get a grip, you'd know if you had it you enormous spastic.

[Ian]

Just remember, Spikey, that if you have a test this is all your fault but it's also your fault if you don't have a test.

You cunt. :nono:

[niko_cee]

I heard anecdotally the other day that if you test positive for corona (or corona antibodies) you basically become absolute cancer to private health insurance people (no interest of mine really - something to do with unknown long term consequences) but the person who told me this was fairly adamant you shouldn't have an antibody test if you ever want (or need) medical insurance.

[Don]

What sort of a cunt feels he needs a test unless he's in hospital and treatment is diagnosis dependant? Cunts like you are why I can't have Svetlana rubbing her clit in my face at 5am at Euston.

[Spikey M]

My daughter is about to start school, I don't really have a choice. I'm fully aware it will just be a cold though.

[Don]

Why tf have you got a daughter when your immune system is so shit, you cunt? Idiocy like that is why we have low-hanging fruit ("LHF") in the first place.

[Magic]

My daughter is about to start school, I don't really have a choice. I'm fully aware it will just be a cold though.

Isn't this more of a reason not to get tested? Don't want the school shutting down. :eyemouth:

[Spikey M]

Why tf have you got a daughter when your immune system is so shit, you cunt? Idiocy like that is why we have low-hanging fruit ("LHF") in the first place.

The only LHF round here is deeze grapefruits son.



Isn't this more of a reason not to get tested? Don't want the school shutting down. :eyemouth:

I'm sure many would do this, but I don't particularly like the idea of infecting a load of kids (fuck off) and writing off their parents / grandparents.

[Spikey M]

That cunt needed an interpreter.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

Can you even imagine the sort of busybody, jobsworth tosspot who wants to be a covid marshal?

[Shindig]

Magic's just doing it to get an extra 10 minutes with the bairn.

[Lewis]

Can you even imagine the sort of busybody, jobsworth tosspot who wants to be a covid marshal?

1303731977615486979

Nonce Nation.

[Raoul Duke]

Surely it'll just be those rent-a-cop PCSOs in slightly different hi-vis jackets?

[Yevrah]

How does a curfew remotely help? It’ll just push more people into pubs, restaurants and each other’s houses before 10. And in the case of the latter, keeping them there afterwards.

The response to this is getting quite tragic now, not helped by the fact that it’s become clearly apparent that far too many people are innumerate, let alone able to understand the context of the numbers they’re looking at.

[Don]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/boris-johnson-pinning-hopes-on-covid-testing-moonshot-leaked-papers-show

It's the gift that keeps on giving. Do you reckon we could have made a bigger mess of all this if we tried?

[Boydy]

How the fuck are they going to manage that when they don't even have enough tests as it is?

[Yevrah]

Not really, no.

[phonics]

Governments lack of ability to plan/need for credit is why we're fucked.

There are two options 'massive rush job that wont hit it's goals but will cost twice as much' or 'kick the can down the road to the next arsehole'

[Manc]

Moonshot. :facepalm:

[Yevrah]

I don’t really understand what’s wrong with ‘monitor the situation and react by shutting shit down accordingly when needed’.

Absolutely no chance we’re going to be able to test everyone often enough to achieve the same end result.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

1303731977615486979

Nonce Nation.

Absolute bed wetters.

[Spikey M]

What is the mortality rate at the moment? 8 people died of it today for fuck sake.

[Shindig]

Hospital patients are up by about a 150 on last week.

[Don]

I heard some gash on a Zoom call on the news say we're tracking France by 4 weeks closely. She was hideous too so I'd value her insight.

So don't expect any scenes in the death count for the next month at least.

[Dquincy]

This is France's new case and death count in the last week. What are you expecting?

September 9
8,577 new cases and 30 new deaths in France

September 8
6,544 new cases and 38 new deaths in France

September 7
4,203 new cases and 25 new deaths in France

September 6
7,071 new cases and 3 new deaths in France

September 5
8,550 new cases and 12 new deaths in France

September 4
8,975 new cases in France.

September 3
7,157 new cases in France

[Don]

My current hypothesis is Spain's death count may continue to pick up, France will follow them and we'll follow. You got those same day's figures for Spain?

[Queenslander]

Queenslands population is currently 5.11 million people.

Somehow people are still talking up the Swedish model on conservative radio.

Bring on the travel bubble with New Zealand.

https://i.ibb.co/VC3LTTq/FB-IMG-1599707011036.jpg (https://ibb.co/dp7fDD5)

[Dquincy]

My current hypothesis is Spain's death count may continue to pick up, France will follow them and we'll follow. You got those same day's figures for Spain?

Spain's recent cases and deaths figures. (Not sure why it misses out some days in the middle). It's a bit up and down. Some high 'ups' though.

September 9

8,866 new cases and 34 new deaths in Spain.

September 8

8,964 new cases and 78 new deaths in Spain.

September 7

2,440 new cases and 32 new deaths in Spain.

September 4

4,503 new cases and 184 new deaths in Spain.

September 3

3,607 new cases and 40 new deaths in Spain.

September 2

3,663 new cases and 42 new deaths in Spain.

September 1

2,731 new cases and 58 new deaths in Spain.

[Spikey M]

They've sent my test to Bristol by accident. :cab:

[Ian]

World beating. :cool:

[Shindig]

Sunderland and Gateshead tearing up the charts. :uhoh:

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

No one fucking has it for fuck's sake.

[Baz]

At first, the local test and trace team (that I managed to avoid being part of, by being too necessary in my actual role) was only for local outbreaks, rather than individuals. Because the National test and trace team(?) are so useless, apparently the local team has taken over informing individual people and then getting hold of all the other individuals they were with. Soooo glad I dodged that bullet, but if it keeps going South, I might get roped in. :uhoh:

[Spikey M]

At first, the local test and trace team (that I managed to avoid being part of, by being too necessary in my actual role) was only for local outbreaks, rather than individuals. Because the National test and trace team(?) are so useless, apparently the local team has taken over informing individual people and then getting hold of all the other individuals they were with. Soooo glad I dodged that bullet, but if it keeps going South, I might get roped in. :uhoh:

Sort it out you slag.

https://i.ibb.co/9NvMkbL/Screenshot-20200910-105659-Samsung-Internet.jpg

[Dquincy]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

No one fucking has it for fuck's sake.
Strictly speaking, your statement is not true,

That and Spikey definitely has it.

[Spikey M]

I knew I shouldn't have shagged you mother in law. :(

[Dquincy]

:lol:

[Don]

A small independent restaurant here got a proper rave DJ to do a set whilst everyone had to be seated at all times during the event. Pills were popped and scenes were had for the 50 or so capacity.

An attendee tested positive and informed the restaurant. The restaurant sat on it. A further attendee heard rumours and asked the restaurant. The restaurant confirmed and asked them to stay quiet.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/d3mlE7uhX8KFgEmY/giphy.gif

[Yevrah]

Fucking morons.

[Queenslander]

:lol:



https://youtu.be/8quxetI8wxY

[John Arne]

I see the UK has introduced yet another way-too-late/not entirely clear policy. I can only wish others were following Europe's fantastic example in dealing with this.

I'm off to the footy on Wednesday, along with about 6,000 other folk.

[John Arne]

Actually how does this rule of 6 actually work, and who does it apply to? Presumably most offices are more than 6 people? I saw Doncaster played a match last week with 2,000 fans? Football clubs seem to be operating pretty normally with groups of 50-60 people. Presumably it doesn't apply to schools or teachers? Seems like a bit of a clusterfuck.

[niko_cee]

95% of situations where 6 or more people might encounter each other appear to be exempt, so I think it's just to stop 'certain groups' from meeting up, and even they might be exempted.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It doesn't apply to anything that involves economic, educational or physical activity. Only social.

[Spikey M]

Meet up with as many people as you want, just all pay each other minimum wage.

[Andy]

Weve not been able to socialise in groups of more than 6 at all, the difference now is they can dish out fines for anyone in bigger groups.

For anyone who was following the rules it doesnt make any difference.

[Jimmy Floyd]

One of my colleagues has just rocked up to the office with a temperature and a cough. The boss just lolled him back out the door. What sort of idiot do you have to be?

[Spikey M]

Weve not been able to socialise in groups of more than 6 at all, the difference now is they can dish out fines for anyone in bigger groups.

For anyone who was following the rules it doesnt make any difference.

It went up to 30 in July.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lockdown-new-laws-20-people-gathering-leicester-a9600716.html



One of my colleagues has just rocked up to the office with a temperature and a cough. The boss just lolled him back out the door. What sort of idiot do you have to be?

That should be a stackable offence. Even pre-Covid turning up with Flu symptoms was a cunts trick.

[Raoul Duke]

I'm amazed The Netherlands haven't been shafted far more than they have. There's barely any real restrictions and what ones were in place (mask-wearing in certain crowded environments like open markets) seem to have been fucked off. There was a street party on my block the other night with steel drums :cab:

I feel like they've been lucky as the countries around them have buffered things a fair bit and also the Dutch tend to be pretty healthy and outdoors-y. Very little mass transit, most people cycling. Numbers are creeping up though and R is over 1 https://coronadashboard.government.nl

[Spikey M]

School just called. Confirmed Covid case amongst one of the parents. This shit isn't going to work. Lolol.

[Boydy]

School just called. Confirmed Covid case amongst one of the parents. This shit isn't going to work. Lolol.

What happens now? Do the kids all have to go home?

[Spikey M]

What happens now? Do the kids all have to go home?

Yeah, Mrs is on her way to get her. No idea if they close for a week or 2 now though. I imagine their kid gets tested and it's dependent on that result as to whether the rest can go back? I really have no idea.

[Spikey M]

Teacher said it's the parent of one of the main kids mine plays with. :happycry:

She's living in the shed for 2 weeks.

[Pepe]

My indoor soccer league started last night. I decided to play.

[-james-]

What's going on with death numbers in France/Spain?

https://i.imgur.com/mOnastV.png

Spain had about 10k new cases every day between the 13th and 20th of March, peaked at about 1000 daily deaths about two and a half weeks later.

Similar peak in case numbers about three weeks ago, Why's ~nobody (400 odd deaths last week) dying of it?

[Yevrah]

Deaths are less per case due to a combination of:

It's already killed off the seriously low hanging fruit.
We're testing a hell of a lot more people now.
I haven't seen the demographics on positive tests but I'd be surprised if it isn't more weighted towards the lower risk groups now (the young and Taz, for example).
The lag between cases rising and it actually killing people, which we know is about 3 weeks to a month.

[Andy]

Better treatment.
Weaker virus.
Younger people getting it rather than oldies.
It's already taken the 'low hanging fruit'
The actual number if cases during the first peak were far higher than estimated.

Take your pick.

[-james-]

Let's just crack on, then.

[Waffdon]

Yeah, Mrs is on her way to get her. No idea if they close for a week or 2 now though. I imagine their kid gets tested and it's dependent on that result as to whether the rest can go back? I really have no idea.

The whole school is shutting because of one parent?

One of my mates’ student tested positive and the folk in the class are self isolating, along with him, until Friday but the school is still open

[Yevrah]

Where are the charts that also show % of tests that are positive? That's the first thing we should be doing as a basis of comparison back to Spring. Anything else is just bad Numberwang.

[Pepe]

Where are the charts that also show % of tests that are positive? That's the first thing we should be doing as a basis of comparison back to Spring. Anything else is just bad Numberwang.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-per-confirmed-case-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&year=latest&time=earliest..latest&country=FRA~ESP&region=Europe

[Dave.]

Where are the charts that also show % of tests that are positive? That's the first thing we should be doing as a basis of comparison back to Spring. Anything else is just bad Numberwang.

You can work out some similar stuff from this link but not exactly what you're looking for:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Spikey M]

The whole school is shutting because of one parent?

One of my mates’ student tested positive and the folk in the class are self isolating, along with him, until Friday but the school is still open

Just her 'bubble'.

[Pepe]

Where are the charts that also show % of tests that are positive? That's the first thing we should be doing as a basis of comparison back to Spring. Anything else is just bad Numberwang.

Also:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&year=latest&time=earliest..latest&country=FRA~ESP

[Dave.]

Also:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&year=latest&time=earliest..latest&country=FRA~ESP

This stuff is a lot better than I what I found.:thbup:

[Spikey M]

Also:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&year=latest&time=earliest..latest&country=FRA~ESP

Still a long way behind France and Spain.

[Pepe]

Our world in data is pretty great.

The one for Mexico. :happycry:

[Giggles]

Better treatment.
Weaker virus.
Younger people getting it rather than oldies.
It's already taken the 'low hanging fruit'
The actual number if cases during the first peak were far higher than estimated.

Take your pick.

Numbers being fudged to get the economy back up and running.

[Spikey M]

Numbers being fudged to get the economy back up and running.

If they were doing that they'd under report the number of cases, Shirley?

[Yevrah]

Seems France's data only goes back to mid-May, but look at Spain, still well below where they were even on April 20th (which looks as though it was a falling % from earlier too).

The public just don't understand numbers, let alone the context around them. One could argue it's not useful for the government to get them to as they might take it less seriously, but the opinions that are formed as a result really aren't based on reality.

[Giggles]

If they were doing that they'd under report the number of cases, Shirley?

There's a lot of benefit to social restrictions.

It's still out there but it's not bad enough to stop you going to work.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&year=latest&time=earliest..latest&country=~GBR

1.5% or lower since June 6th for the UK.

[Spikey M]

There's a lot of benefit to social restrictions.

It's still out there but it's not bad enough to stop you going to work.

It's bad enough to keep me working form home. That's the main thing.

[Yevrah]

Circa 1 in 100 people that have cause to get a test (presumably that's still from showing symptoms) testing positive, is a staggeringly small problem.

Not saying it won't get worse, so I'm absolutely fine with the current restrictions, but the sky is not falling.

[Magic]

We've had loads of this. It's just the pupils either in the class or even less than that the ones they sit beside. It's an absolute farce but yes the kids and the parents have to self-isolate, even if they get a test and test negative. LOL.

[Dave.]

Circa 1 in 100 people that have cause to get a test (presumably that's still from showing symptoms) testing positive, is a staggeringly small problem.

Not saying it won't get worse, so I'm absolutely fine with the current restrictions, but the sky is not falling.

This sums up the situation perfectly.:thbup:

[Boydy]

People dying less is good obviously but that "long covid" shit still sounds extremely unpleasant.

Still feeling fatigued all the time six months later? No thanks.

[Spikey M]

People dying less is good obviously but that "long covid" shit still sounds extremely unpleasant.

Still feeling fatigued all the time six months later? No thanks.

Try having kids. I've done 4 and half years of it now.

[phonics]

A colleague of mine has the extended fatigue thing. She's on her 3rd kid and says it's truly awful.

[Magic]

People dying less is good obviously but that "long covid" shit still sounds extremely unpleasant.

Still feeling fatigued all the time six months later? No thanks.

Sounds like depression.

[phonics]

Except there's physical proof of it. 15% of sufferers have hearts look like they've been ravaged by heart disease.

[Giggles]

Sounds like depression.

I was going to make the same joke.

[Baz]

I thought the “no mixing more than two households” might have scuppered my Sunday pub plans but apparently the “no more than six people” takes precedent, so six people from six houses is allowed. :harold:

[Magic]

Except there's physical proof of it. 15% of sufferers have hearts look like they've been ravaged by heart disease.

Had the same with pneumonia (fatigue not heart disease).

[Disco]

You're Scotch, the heart disease is a given.

[Lofty]

My mate manages a pub, on saturday a guy was in there drinking for hours. Sunday morning he texts saying he has had a positive test for covid. My mate rings the health authority who say the pub can stay open only people sat within 2 metres of the guy for more than 15 minutes need to self isolate. It then transpires the positive test guy was sent someone else's result and he was negative after all.

[Baz]

Probably Spikey’s.

[Spikey M]

I'm fine now. Turned up Saturday after I was already on the mend. Didn't even bother doing it.

[Manc]

Jesus wept.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You could hawk it in Rochdale or Bolton now for 1,000 groats or whatever the currency is in those parts.

[Alex]

1305415388113571842

I'm as happy to admit as the next man that, generally speaking, Tim Martin is a wanker. But he's not exactly wrong here, is he? So 66 employees have come down with Covid since he reopened. Presumably none of those 66 are dead, otherwise we would hear all about it.

The article itself states that he employs 41,000 people. So roughly 0.16% of his workforce has contracted the virus in the couple of months since the pubs have reopened. In what world does that make going to Wetherspoons "dangerous"? At least from a Covid point of view. The odds of getting glassed by one of the regulars in your average 'Spoons is a different, far more dangerous proposition, the odds of which I would not like to calculate.

What shall we do? Shut the pubs again as the furlough winds down, and make those 41,0000 people redundant? If that a preferable course of action? It's a contagious virus, some people are going to get it. This constant bitching and moaning about inconsequential, drummed up figures is doing my fucking head in.

[Don]

You want to fix your tone before I make a call to 101.

[Yevrah]

Another example of the number bait that people just don't understand, that.

In absolutely no context, 66 people contracting a virus sounds like quite a lot. Add in the context of that being across an entire national pub chain and, as you say, it's utterly fuck all.

I do wonder if there are a load of people who were desperate to see opening pubs backfire spectacularly, either because they hate the type that frequent them and/or thought it would be a disaster and now can't cope with it not being.

[Alex]

Another example of the number bait that people just don't understand, that.

In absolutely no context, 66 people contracting a virus sounds like quite a lot. Add in the context of that being across an entire national pub chain and, as you say, it's utterly fuck all.

I do wonder if there are a load of people who were desperate to see opening pubs backfire spectacularly, either because they hate the type that frequent them and/or thought it would be a disaster and now can't cope with it not being.

Nail on the head here Yev, I think.

[Giggles]

We've a large cohort that are dying for us to have the culture of some wine, some tapas, some wine, hearty laughter, and lots of Instagram instead of our proper pub one. So there are piles loving them being closed and are mad for them to remain that way.

[Magic]

France still piling in cases but still in single figure deaths.

[Magic]

Also 405 house parties DISRUPTED in Scotland over the weekend. Nation of grassing freaks.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Also 405 house parties DISRUPTED in Scotland over the weekend. Nation of grassing freaks.

I've never liked Scotland more.

[Giggles]

Beautiful to see.

[niko_cee]

That 405 is probably about as accurate a metric for the actual number of house parties in Scotland over the weekend as our (and by our I mean the world's) case numbers from the peak.

Never has a country loved a house party more than our northern brethren.

[igor_balis]

Problem with NI is that pretty much all the students go home every weekend

Why?!

[Shindig]

France still piling in cases but still in single figure deaths.

Aye, although Marseilles were moaning about their ICU having only four beds left. Italy and Germany seem to be in decent shape.

[Spikey M]

Why?!

It's Northern Ireland. Don't try to understand them.

[Boydy]

Why?!
Because they're a bunch of babies.

[Kikó]

Mingling now banned in the UK.

[Giggles]

All the pubs getting to open except in Dublin will bring on riots.

[Dquincy]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">7,739 deaths registered in week ending Sep 4 - 16% below the average for this week. So no excess deaths. And <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> deaths still running lower than deaths from flu &amp; pneumonia. NB this was a bank holiday week, so overall registrations affected by that <a href="https://t.co/C1v5xPjfFo">https://t.co/C1v5xPjfFo</a> <a href="https://t.co/9wzFZaopbn">pic.twitter.com/9wzFZaopbn</a></p>&mdash; Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) <a href="https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1305787461726081024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Magic]

But second spike...!

[Shindig]

That'd be a more interesting graph if the two previous bank holiday dips weren't on it.

[phonics]

Arresting plebs for 'mingling' while getting the grouse hunting crew together in packs of 30.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The grouse shooting thing is braindead. Sure, if it's a sport then it can have 30 like all the other sports, but why would you expend political capital getting it through on its own?

[phonics]

Because they only care about their mates. The sort of people that shoot grouse.

[Spikey M]

It's not even a sport, really.

[Giggles]

The level 1-5 roadmap was announced here today and they've already fucked it up by putting the country at L2 and Dublin at L2-and-a-bit. The health minister is off for a covid test now which has absolutely nothing to do with him getting roasted on telly tonight.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/6508e-level-1/


.

[Giggles]

1305906195459387392

[Don]

London walk-in test centres become bookings only. Londoners are unable to book tests near them. London shows curiously low infection rates.

Any one would think there's some fudging going on as if some people in power may be trying to avoid a London lockdown.

[Boydy]

There was footage on the local news here of the 'Holylands' (student) area of Belfast. They're all out in the street in huge groups having a piss up or hanging out of windows of the houses. The police should just go in there and crack some heads. Stupid culchie bastards.

[Andy]

London walk-in test centres become bookings only. Londoners are unable to book tests near them. London shows curiously low infection rates.

Any one would think there's some fudging going on as if some people in power may be trying to avoid a London lockdown.

I'm pretty sure they've moved loads of the the testing capacity up north.

[Don]

Yeah, I've heard of Londoners getting Belfast as their closest testing centre. What we need is STATS to bottom this out.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rumours around here suggest Hounslow is on the verge of a lockdown. 48 people have it in a population of 99,874.

[Baz]

We’re almost certainly gonna lockdown.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Robert Peston is nudging for another national lockdown (or at least much tighter restrictions) in two weeks. Says anything and everything could be sacrificed to keep schools open. Screw him and screw them.

[Kikó]

Can we not lock down Robert Peston?

[phonics]

Impossbile. He's got grouse to hunt.

[Spikey M]

We’re almost certainly gonna lockdown.

I don't think we will. Technically by virtue of the R being above 1 we already should be now, and yet...

https://i2-prod.birminghammail.co.uk/incoming/article18235621.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Capture_result.jpg

I only see us locking down if the deaths really start to escalate and as long as Deirdre and John stay home and we keep it out of Care Homes that shouldn't really happen.

[Shindig]

I think the winter's going to be key. Locking down might be the only way to keep people away from hospital beds.

[Spikey M]

Lock down now and people will a) largely not comply and b) lose their shit by Christmas.

If we have to do it then it needs to be at the right time.

[Jimmy Floyd]

In Peston's thing it quotes someone from SAGE as saying they won't wait for the deaths to rise before locking down. If the rule of six doesn't lower infections within two weeks it's all over red rover.

[Spikey M]

Mental.

[Kikó]

Winter influenza season would make sense to maintain the social distancing / keep the current bar/restaurant restrictions in place. Lockdown now makes little sense.

[Baz]

Robert Peston is nudging for another national lockdown (or at least much tighter restrictions) in two weeks. Says anything and everything could be sacrificed to keep schools open. Screw him and screw them.

Rates have shot up in the last two weeks. Schools reopened two weeks ago. I don't see the point in locking anything down if it's purely so they can keep schools open as normal.

[Magic]

That's so his nonce wealthy mates can come in and scoop shit up for £1 when everything goes bust.

[Yevrah]

Rates have shot up in the last two weeks. Schools reopened two weeks ago. I don't see the point in locking anything down if it's purely so they can keep schools open as normal.

We can't have a generation of kids that have missed 10% of their schooling, so if it's actually needed, I favour closing everything else down ahead of schools. That's a big if though.

[Baz]

We can't have a generation of kids that have missed 10% of their schooling, so if it's actually needed, I favour closing everything else down ahead of schools. That's a big if though.I understand that, but I don’t think anything will bring the rates back down to what we now considered as okay, besides closing* schools.


*Keeping them open for the vulnerable and children of keyworkers only.

[Magic]

I understand that, but I don’t think anything will bring the rates back down to what we now considered as okay, besides closing* schools.


*Keeping them open for the vulnerable and children of keyworkers only.

There's absolutely no evidence whatsoever that the rise has been attributed to schools.

[Andy]

https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-7a35-4ad9-b57d-98f1dfa107ad

This is interesting.

"September is not March
Spain is again reporting up to 10,000 new cases a day — as it did at the peak of the pandemic in March and April. But Spanish officials insist the figures are not comparable. They argue that in March only about one case in 10 was detected, which meant daily tallies showed just a sliver of the real picture. Now, they say, the detection rate may be between 70-90 per cent."

[Yevrah]

I understand that, but I don’t think anything will bring the rates back down to what we now considered as okay, besides closing* schools.


*Keeping them open for the vulnerable and children of keyworkers only.

Why not? As Magic's said, where's the evidence of this? I still haven't heard of a single kid via anyone I know that's been confirmed to have the thing. Loads of tests, particularly over the last two weeks, but no positives.

[Kikó]

He's in team panic.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think what will happen is that after the absolute hammering that everyone in authority took in the spring - rightly or wrongly - they will now err on the side of extreme caution, particularly the sciencey people who aren't accountable for what happens to the economy.

[Spikey M]

Baz leaving Team Crack-on :nono:

[SvN]

Why not? As Magic's said, where's the evidence of this? I still haven't heard of a single kid via anyone I know that's been confirmed to have the thing. Loads of tests, particularly over the last two weeks, but no positives.

3 kids tested positive at my wife's school this week.

[Magic]

3 kids tested positive at my wife's school this week.

Out of how many?

[Baz]

Baz leaving Team Crack-on :nono:I am definitely not. I’m team captain, baby.

All I know for a fact is the figures have absolutely rocketed the past two weeks (don’t make me provide graphs) and the only thing that changed 2 weeks ago is kids going back to schools.

[Spikey M]

3 kids tested positive at my wife's school this week.

How many years has she been held back now?

[Pepe]

None? :uhoh:

[SvN]

Out of how many?

I've no idea. I know you're desperate to work out the percentage and dismiss it. I was just responding to Yev's point about no kids getting it.

[Magic]

I've no idea. I know you're desperate to work out the percentage and dismiss it. I was just responding to Yev's point about no kids getting it.

It's 1 or 2 kids out of hundreds.

Hundreds of kids that aren't adhering to any bullshit guidelines, distancing, masks or sanitising.

The fucking cold has a higher hit rate than this.

[Yevrah]

It's 1 or 2 kids out of hundreds.

Hundreds of kids that aren't adhering to any bullshit guidelines, distancing, masks or sanitising.

The fucking cold has a higher hit rate than this.

He said it was three.
They are.
It probably doesn't.

[Magic]

They aren't.

[Baz]

They aren't.

Indeed.

It’s IMPOSSIBLE to socially distance in a school, or stick to the guidelines.

[Yevrah]

They won't be behaving entirely as they used to though, which is the point.

All of these things help to mitigate spread from the fuck all we were doing in Spring.

[Spikey M]

The School pick up and drop off is different, but so far as I can see the kids are conducting themselves entirely as normal once inside.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm led to believe that under 11s are entirely as normal but secondary schools are all masked up and standing a mile apart from each other.

[Yevrah]

The School pick up and drop off is different, but so far as I can see the kids are conducting themselves entirely as normal once inside.

Aren't there bubbles within year groups and stuff like that? No Assembly? Etc?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm led to believe that under 11s are entirely as normal but secondary schools are all masked up and standing a mile apart from each other.

Based on what nephews/nieces tell me they are meant to wear masks when they're in corridors etc.

They're not allowed to socialise with people outside of their "bubbles", staggered end times (although schools will adjust those if you have a sibling in a different year so they can finish together) and each year group are only allowed in certain buildings/sections of the schools.

[Spikey M]

Aren't there bubbles within year groups and stuff like that? No Assembly? Etc?

Sort of, but the bubbles are just the year groups. Or they are at my daughters age anyway, and I don't think they ever did assemblies for the really little ones. She is free to play with anyone from within the 2 reception classes.

On that front, the kid of the person that tested positive has now tested negative so they all went back this morning. Although I believe the kid that needed a test still has to stay off for the 14 days.

[SvN]

There's a fine balance to strike, and yes, there's definitely contact between students. But things are definitely not normal, despite what Airport Trouserwetter claims.

As far as I know, there's:


Staggered arrival/leaving times
Reduced class sizes
"Bubbles" per year group
Masks in corridors
Hand sanitizing in and out of classes


There's probably stuff I've missed. Is it enough? Who knows, but it's definitely a lot more than it was back in March.

[Baz]

Not in all schools.

Sure some are nailing it, but some have carried on as normal.

[SvN]

Speaking exclusively about the school my wife works at.

[Magic]

Is it a high school? Primary schools are absolutely as normal.

[Yevrah]

My nephew and niece are in primary school and they're definitely not operating as normal at the one they go to.

[Magic]

My nephew and niece are in primary school and they're definitely not operating as normal at the one they go to.

Can you go in to further detail on this? My wean's school has tried to put some stuff in but it's completely pointless and not enforced (because it literally can't be).

[Boydy]

Can you go in to further detail on this? My wean's school has tried to put some stuff in but it's completely pointless and not enforced (because it literally can't be).

Probs more difficult in a special needs school, innit.

[Magic]

Probs more difficult in a special needs school, innit.

Presumptuous but I suppose Yev is mighty auti so it's not a bad shout his niece and nephew will be too.

[Yevrah]

Can you go in to further detail on this? My wean's school has tried to put some stuff in but it's completely pointless and not enforced (because it literally can't be).

I'm with them over the weekend and I'll get the full lowdown from them then.

[Shindig]

What will swing a lockdown is the hospital rates. At the peak, we had 20,000 in hospital beds. Ventilators peaked at 3,000.

[Spikey M]

1306206584863887360?s=19

[mo]

Staggered arrival/leaving times
Reduced class sizes
"Bubbles" per year group
Masks in corridors
Hand sanitizing in and out of classes



This is what my school has done, and I get the impression that the vast majority of secondaries have adopted these policies as part of the guidelines given by PHE and the DfE. However, the 'they are adhering/they aren't argument' isn't as binary as Yev and Magic tried to argue above. Some kids are anxious to the point of running away from home to protect their family (genuinely went from Wiltshire to Dover), the majority do their best, wear their masks and follow the one way system in place and then a minority that are either too dense/spiteful to follow the guidance unless they have it repeated over and over.

We haven't closed a year group yet but numerous schools around us have. Mostly seems to be Year 9, for some reason.

[Shindig]

Restrictions coming in for the North-East tomorrow, apparently.

[Dave.]

Restrictions coming in for the North-East tomorrow, apparently.

Northumberland, Newcastle, Sunderland, North and South Tyneside, Gateshead and County Durham.

[Magic]

Restrictions coming in for the North-East tomorrow, apparently.

Settle yourself down.

[Shindig]

I am settled. I'm just mildly miffed I can't do owt over my week off.

[niko_cee]

Neil Warnock's got it.

[Spikey M]

Oof. He could actually be in trouble.

[Magic]

:drool:

[Dquincy]

1306206584863887360?s=19

That graph is going to be the yard stick re lockdown. Surely it's all about beds being taken up in hospitals, especially as we go into the winter months and flu season.

[Yevrah]

Yep, if hospital admissions continue up then it's game over.

Have the turkey now.

[Magic]

But it's counting people who go in with something else and either catch it in hospital or happen to have it at the same time. Once again numbers alone don't show the full picture...

[Yevrah]

But it's counting people who go in with something else and either catch it in hospital or happen to have it at the same time. Once again numbers alone don't show the full picture...

What?

Either way, those people have Coronavirus. This isn't good.

[Mellberg]

And have they been increasing that way of recording figures throughout September? It's going up whichever way you cut it.

[Baz]

Brought up the fact that local cases have rocketed since schools opened in a meeting. Silence as the experts seemed to ponder it for the first time in their lives. :face:

Apparently they’re blaming it on 18-24 year olds catching it in pubs and then giving it to their 49-54 year old parents, presumably with a view to trying to get pubs to close again, which is pointless.

Pubs seem to be following guidelines better than schools from what I’ve heard, for a start.

[Magic]

Brought up the fact that local cases have rocketed since schools opened in a meeting. Silence as the experts seemed to ponder it for the first time in their lives. :face:

Apparently they’re blaming it on 18-24 year olds catching it in pubs and then giving it to their 49-54 year old parents, presumably with a view to trying to get pubs to close again, which is pointless.

Pubs seem to be following guidelines better than schools from what I’ve heard, for a start.

In my experience supermarkets and small shops are the worst. Restaurants and pubs seem to be absolutely following guidelines and it just seems incredibly harsh they are copping for it.

[Magic]

Nicola Bludgeon is considering a full country wide lockdown like the one we saw before on the basis of:



52 people are in hospital with the virus
5 people in intensive care

:harold:

[Don]

At this stage, it seems fairly clear the second wave is on course to happen along the same lines as the first so to take measures before we get to the Thursday group pot-banging stage makes sense.

That's not me doing an Odemwingie parked outside Team Panic's stadium btw, I'm just saying let's let go of the 'second wave isn't even a thing' line and all get behind the 'you're all a bunch of melts' line.

[Magic]

Here's some things I don't get:

1) 'new cases' were in the thousands when testing wasn't even in existence, double negatives, false positives, hardly any capacity etc
2) this is the same figure as back then, when we are testing the tits off everyone
3) on the back of that, why are we seeing thousands of new cases a day yet hardly any deaths?
4) remember when we didn't wear masks? Why wasn't everyone dying then?
5) 5G

[Yevrah]

Google "estimate how of how many people had Coronavirus in Spring" and you'll get part of the answer.

If the death rate is 1% then 40,000 deaths = four million people had it, not the sub 400,000 that's been recorded.

[Magic]

"If".

[Yevrah]

If I could be fucked to get the spreadsheet out I'd be able to see where we actually are vs. where we were and therefore how much wiggle room we have (it's still loads compared to Spring), but I really can't be arsed.

Ultimately, there will be more measures, there will be a second wave, but it won't be as bad as the first as that would be more or less impossible. Come Spring 2021, we can then all finally move on with our lives.

[Yevrah]

"If".

It might well be lower, if it's half a percent then it's 8 million people that had it, which given we were doing nothing for months, doesn't sound that unlikely.

Not a chance in hell even a million people have it again yet.

[Magic]

Think we need to lose the notion that lockdown meant everyone stayed inside and didn't even open their curtains, maybe for 2 months movements were "severely" restricted, however cunts were still piling in to fucking massive shops, takeaways, queueing for shit etc.

[Magic]

If I could be fucked to get the spreadsheet out I'd be able to see where we actually are vs. where we were and therefore how much wiggle room we have (it's still loads compared to Spring), but I really can't be arsed.

Ultimately, there will be more measures, there will be a second wave, but it won't be as bad as the first as that would be more or less impossible. Come Spring 2021, we can then all finally move on with our lives.

But you can't, because both of those are guesses. There will be more measures, based on nobody wanting to look like cunts like last time but it'll have much further reaching repercussions. Fuck it and move on.

[Yevrah]

But you can't, because both of those are guesses. There will be more measures, based on nobody wanting to look like cunts like last time but it'll have much further reaching repercussions. Fuck it and move on.

There are assumptions, sure, but it'd be in the right area.

Ultimately I don't understand why you (or anyone else) is struggling to understand why we're not seeing significant numbers of deaths again yet.

[Magic]

I do understand, from what I can see on my Facebook, Twitter, and MSM it seems like they don't. That was my point, it's blindingly obvious.

[Yevrah]

Think we need to lose the notion that lockdown meant everyone stayed inside and didn't even open their curtains, maybe for 2 months movements were "severely" restricted, however cunts were still piling in to fucking massive shops, takeaways, queueing for shit etc.

Yes, but we did nothing in the run up to lockdown. Nothing. Filthy bastards weren't even washing their hands. We let the virus run rampant for at least three months, perhaps longer and that's why we got to where we did. While it's not perfect still, we've basically done the complete opposite since.

[Magic]

Yes, but we did nothing in the run up to lockdown. Nothing. Filthy bastards weren't even washing their hands. We let the virus run rampant for at least three months, perhaps longer and that's why we got to where we did. While it's not perfect still, we've basically done the complete opposite since.

Mate, filthy bastards gonna filthy bastard. They still aren't washing their hands, kids still aren't social distancing, older kids are still having house parties, sloots still slooting. Open the clubs.

[Yevrah]

I do understand

Why are you posting things like this then?


Here's some things I don't get:


3) on the back of that, why are we seeing thousands of new cases a day yet hardly any deaths?

[Magic]

:eyemouth:

It was more of a sarcastic Twitter type response.

[Yevrah]

Mate, filthy bastards gonna filthy bastard. They still aren't washing their hands, kids still aren't social distancing, older kids are still having house parties, sloots still slooting. Open the clubs.

Do you seriously think we're dealing with this no better than we were in Jan-Mar? Seriously?

[Magic]

Maybe slightly, but if it was as fucked as they say it would still be brutal. It isn't, so let's move on.

[Yevrah]

:eyemouth:

It was more of a sarcastic Twitter type response.

Ok. Well those people are idiots and idiots are gonna idiot.

[Yevrah]

Maybe slightly, but if it was as fucked as they say it would still be brutal. It isn't, so let's move on.

Agree completely. The nice thing about this virus is that the lag between cases and deaths means you get ample time to adjust things if it looks like it's getting bad.

[Spikey M]

At this stage, it seems fairly clear the second wave is on course to happen along the same lines as the first so to take measures before we get to the Thursday group pot-banging stage makes sense.

That's not me doing an Odemwingie parked outside Team Panic's stadium btw, I'm just saying let's let go of the 'second wave isn't even a thing' line and all get behind the 'you're all a bunch of melts' line.

Yeah, my stance has changed since calling it mental yesterday. If we can lockdown for a few weeks now to get the R back down, then that's preferable to following the extended lockdown of the first wave.

[Magic]

Yeah, my stance has changed since calling it mental yesterday. If we can lockdown for a few weeks now to get the R back down, then that's preferable to following the extended lockdown of the first wave.

And keep doing so ad infinitum...great idea!!!

[Spikey M]

And keep doing so ad infinitum...great idea!!!

You're a fan of letting it get out of hand and doing a full-scale lockdown for 3 months again then?

Yes. A short-term mild lockdown is better than a long-term full-scale one. Why is that controversial?

[Magic]

You're a fan of letting it get out of hand and doing a full-scale lockdown for 3 months again then?

Yes. A short-term mild lockdown is better than a long-term full-scale one. Why is that controversial?

No, let it 'get out of hand' as in hardly do anything and just continue as normal.

[Spikey M]

Ah, the 'kill the pensioners' route. Apologies, I forgot you were a psychopath for a moment there.

[Magic]

Ah, the 'kill the pensioners' route. Apologies, I forgot you were a psychopath for a moment there.

They're already dead m8 lol.

[John Arne]

Thank god I live in a country that actually locked down when it should have. And then again when the second wave hit.

[Dave.]

Precautionary measures ("rule of six", tightening restrictions or partial lockdowns at a lower level) need to be taken now while we assess whether the recent increase in cases translates to more hospital admissions and more deaths. If deaths remain reasonably low in a couple of weeks time, then we can ease the restrictions again and start the slow process of returning to normal.

[Don]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/17/more-than-60-back-in-their-workplace-uk-traffic-figures-suggest-ons-covid-19

Mon a lockdown ffs :yn:

[Jimmy Floyd]

The halcyon days of April when I was practising for the Hatzenbach down Chertsey Bridge Road each 8am are sadly no longer.

[Lewis]

Do you seriously think we're dealing with this no better than we were in Jan-Mar? Seriously?

We're 'dealing with it' (in the holistic sense) much worse, seeing as everything we've learnt since March suggests that the initial strategy was the best one all along.

[Yevrah]

We're 'dealing with it' (in the holistic sense) much worse, seeing as everything we've learnt since March suggests that the initial strategy was the best one all along.

It really wasn't, but we're never going to agree on that, are we?

[Lewis]

The longer we piss about with the lockdown-cokey the more obvious it becomes.

[Yevrah]

The two aren't mutually exclusive.

It was perfectly possible to lock down earlier than we did and still not go overboard now, which I don't think we have just yet.

[Shindig]

Think we need to lose the notion that lockdown meant everyone stayed inside and didn't even open their curtains, maybe for 2 months movements were "severely" restricted, however cunts were still piling in to fucking massive shops, takeaways, queueing for shit etc.

They had literal queues and door staff in place to prevent that.

[Boydy]

1306643329292161024

What the fuck.

[Alex]

Not related to the content at all, but it seems almost compulsory to include the obligatory "close up of young persons hand holding old persons hand" picture when reporting anything to do with care homes now. Just something I've noticed over the last couple of months.

[Dquincy]

And not a black hand in sight. Have we not learnt anything. #BLM

[Lewis]

It's an NHS nurse pinching their jewellery.

[Shindig]

Okay, so the council bloke mentioned pubs and sports were bringing the cases up. So ... is closing pubs at 10pm going to .... make a difference?

[Baz]

Nope.

[Don]

White NHS nurses, good one Lewis.

[Giggles]

They're shutting every restaurant and food pub down in Dublin because of all the clusters that have came because of house parties :cab:

[Mike]

Two weeks into term and they’ve decided parents and should wear masks during the school drop off, as should any staff out meeting the kids. I suggested this on day one and was told it wasn’t necessary.

[Lewis]

White NHS nurses, good one Lewis.

All the non-white ones died because of racist PPE allocation.

[Don]

BBC News are doing a piece on French intensive care units in 5 or so minutes. Be nice to put a blurred out dying fatty's face to the graph.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They're shutting every restaurant and food pub down in Dublin because of all the clusters that have came because of house parties :cab:

In free countries you can't police house parties, so you just police what you can police instead.

[Giggles]

In free countries you can't police house parties, so you just police what you can police instead.

Maybe a regulated alternative to a house party might be handy though.

[Don]

Brav, BBC just said Sweden ain't taking any measures, not wearing masks and holding regular swinger parties in their saunas and no waves whatsoever there. Get the fucking clubs open.

[Shindig]

The Swedes constitutionally couldn't lockdown. Instead, the sensible Swedish people social distance on a voluntary basis. Sweden are a bunch of good boys and girls.

[Don]

Listen, mate, I'm not having those rehashed lines. Having said that, this all seems like a re-run of wave 1 so they'll probs hit a higher than average death rate again in a few weeks.

First 25 minutes of news was on coronavirus. Led to me having one of those 'is this really happening?' moments of reflection.

[Don]

There's some paedo-looking geezer on QT reading out Yev's posts.

[Lewis]

Sweden has done exactly what we were doing until we BOTTLED IT, and they're going to lol through the next year whilst we cower inside waiting for a vaccine.

[Spikey M]

Sweden has a population of 10 million. London has 9 millions on it's own. Let's not embarras ourselves.

[Lewis]

Yeah, and more people would have died. But I think they should be about ninety thousand deaths into it by now according to the models that made our government change course, which they obviously aren't.

[Spikey M]

You think that based on what?

[Dquincy]

Sweden has done exactly what we were doing until we BOTTLED IT, and they're going to lol through the next year whilst we cower inside waiting for a vaccine.
I wonder if the 1st lockdown helped saved many lives, or has it just postponed their deaths for the 2nd wave? Ergo, we should have just let it run wild in the first place (to a certain degree; i.e. doing something softer than a national lockdown). It's food for thought.

[Shindig]

Our excess death numbers have always weirded me out. It's a huge chunk that hasn't gone down as covid deaths. Did the other 20,000 pull a Jonestown between January and March?

[Lewis]

You think that based on what?

Swedish attempts at replicating (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1) it:


We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al. Individual-based models are increasingly used to model epidemic spread with explicit representation of demographic and spatial factors such as population distribution, workplace data, school data, and mobility... This individual-based modelling project predicts that with the current mitigation approach approximately 96,000 deaths (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000) can be expected before 1 July, 2020.

There were a few people questioning him at the time but then he got sacked and people stopped caring.

[mugbull]

Brav, BBC just said Sweden ain't taking any measures, not wearing masks and holding regular swinger parties in their saunas and no waves whatsoever there. Get the fucking clubs open.

Living in Stockholm you could’ve completely forgotten there’s a pandemic this whole time. The only reminders are the dots on the floor in front of every checkout line

[Queenslander]

Queensland has opened the borders up to . . . the ACT...

Are we about to seize power? Can we rely on Vietnam in these uncertain times?

[Spikey M]

Swedish attempts at replicating (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1) it:


We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al. Individual-based models are increasingly used to model epidemic spread with explicit representation of demographic and spatial factors such as population distribution, workplace data, school data, and mobility... This individual-based modelling project predicts that with the current mitigation approach approximately 96,000 deaths (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000) can be expected before 1 July, 2020.

There were a few people questioning him at the time but then he got sacked and people stopped caring.

We are a densely populated country, they - outside of Stockholm - are a few shacks stuck on some perma-frost.

But looking at Stockholm, 23000 cases and 2000 deaths? Either something is wrong with their numbers or something is wrong with their hospitals.

[Jimmy Floyd]

To contain this you either need to be a sparsely populated country (or with polarised population centres like Australia), or you need to have a state-society relationship that gives consent to extreme restrictions on individual liberty, or both. Britain, France, Spain, northern Italy, America... absolutely no chance, let alone the likes of Brazil, Peru and Mexico. In fact, most of South America seems to have gone past Europe now in terms of deaths per pop.

Germany have probably got away with it due to having an unbelievably well-organised testing system and the fact that they are hard wired to follow rules. Neighbouring Belgium is a shitshow.

[Shindig]

The Swedes are also turning on air travel so they probably don't import as many cases as the rest of Europe.

[Don]

I saw we had more testing than the EU big boys (Germany included). I presume processing by 50 year old Janes and 25 year old Marks is where we're falling down.

[Spikey M]

The general consensus seems to be that we're falling down because they're counting the 3(?) swabs that make up 1 test as 3 separate tests.

But I don't know if that's actually true, because the test they sent me only had 1 swab. Perhaps the ones they do at the test sites are different?