Coronavirus Death Thread

[-james-]

You're all massive normies for thinking that Boris is in with a chance of dying or that some entry level Waffelz bollocks is a disgrace.

[Yevrah]

It's just like the flu.

[Waffdon]

The old man phoned and asked me to delete the tweets. Fun whilst it lasted, someone managed to find my full name too.

[-james-]

It's just like the flu.

I appreciate that ICU survival rates are pretty bad, but the bar for entry for him will have been incredibly low. The 1 in 2 survival rate is probably more 9 in 10.

[Queenslander]

NSW Premier has told her state that nothing will change in regards to social distancing untill a vaccine has been found.

[Giggles]

The old man phoned and asked me to delete the tweets. Fun whilst it lasted, someone managed to find my full name too.

Probably something as simple as a follower that knows you shopping you in a DM.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

RIP Waff.

[Queenslander]

Hopefully it blows over in a week.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Don't fuck with cats or Boris.

[niko_cee]

I guess this was Boris' 'exit strategy'.

Not that it will be, James' is obviously right.

Where's the ther-moral-mometer on 'precautionary' ICU admission? Might someone else not actually need that bed?

[Spoonsky]

I don't know how I'd feel if President Donald J. Trump got it. Probably the same.

You'd mostly be upset about the upcoming four years of President Mike Pence. He'd win without a shadow of a doubt.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I guess this was Boris' 'exit strategy'.

Not that it will be, James' is obviously right.

Where's the ther-moral-mometer on 'precautionary' ICU admission? Might someone else not actually need that bed?

Depends who it is, the PM probably ranks pretty high on the save list.

[Lewis]

A footballer could have had that ventilator.

[Lee]

Some things make me think he isn’t fucked. Like being relatively young (that 50-69 age band upthread is massive), the Lombardy mechanical ventilation outcome data (which Boris is at least a step or two from yet as far as we know) showing more like 70% survival than 50% and the obvious point that he is going to be over-cared for because of who he is.

But then you take that all way and you’re still left with a very fat man in his mid-fifties. I worry about my own parents getting it and they’re only just older than him and neither are his size. Obesity is a mortality flag with this thing and it might fuck him.

Even if not he isn’t returning to normal PM duties this side of the summer.

[Lee]

Just seen Raab’s statement and, fuck me, there are the eyes of a man who has been told of dark possibilities.

[Yevrah]

He looked like a scared child when he appeared at the press conference last week, so I think he just realises he's hugely out of his depth.

Nonetheless, I still think Boris is in a whole world of trouble.

[Lewis]

He isn't that fat these days. 2016 vintage would have croaked a week ago.

[Alex]

Just seen Raab’s statement and, fuck me, there are the eyes of a man who has been told of dark possibilities.

Aye. He looked and sounded very scared, I thought.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If I were Dominic Raab even in the most optimistic possible version of this scenario, I can tell you that I would be shitting the fucking bed.

Hell, I'm shitting the bed now and I'm only me.

[Lee]

He isn't that fat these days. 2016 vintage would have croaked a week ago.

I’d be amazed of he isn’t classified as obese. Our view of what makes a person fat is pretty skewed.

[Yevrah]

An interesting take on testing from Anthony Minghella's brother:

Might be worth reading his experience with Covid-19 here first: https://www.minghella.com/from-the-dark-end-of-the-street/


1) The tests don’t work

I was swabbed soon after arriving in hospital, by a very thorough emergency medicine doctor. She warned me the throat swab would make me gag, and it really did. She warned me the nasal swab was deep and invasive, and it really was. My ward doctor later said it feels like it’s going right into your mind, and he was right. It’s not nice.

The test came back negative.

The ward doctor had warned me it might. “It could come back negative, but we wouldn’t really believe it if it did,” he had said.

In other words, you know you’ve got Covid, and so do we. The test is a formality, and it may be wrong.

He knew the test might come back negative before it happened. Then it happened. This is clearly not just me. This is clearly A Thing.

The tests don’t work.

I don’t know that they produce false positives, but I know first-hand that they produce false negatives.

I was swabbed again by a different medic, equally thoroughly. The test came back negative again.

I know of another patient in the same hospital – a friend of my sister – who had three tests before the result came back positive.

Could it be the methodology? Are the medics thorough? After all, who wants to be up close and personal to a Covid patient and make him gag and cough? To work, the swabbing has to be quite invasive. But in my case, it was. I can’t imagine it being more thorough. Different medics performed the swabbing each time. I don’t believe the problem is in the methodology.

The tests just didn’t work.

2) The tests don’t matter

If you want to be tested at the moment, you had better be a cabinet minister, or royalty. Failing that, you have to present at hospital in a bad way, as I did. By that time, breathing, and indeed staying alive, seem a lot more important than technical confirmation of Covid-19. You know you’ve got it. The medics know you’ve got it. You want treatment, not confirmation.

Of course, before you are put onto a Covid-19 ward, you want to be pretty sure you haven’t been misdiagnosed, and then put into an infectious situation when you’re already ill with what, in fact, is not Covid. There were moments for me when I thought hang on, don’t put me in there until you’re 100% sure, but in all honesty, I knew. They knew. The main thing was to get the oxygen therapy and some care. Of all my worries, the lack of technical confirmation of Covid was way, way down the list. I was past the point of Needing To Know, and in the phase of Needing To Live.

That’s why I say the tests, for hospitalised patients, don’t matter.

3) The tests are too late

You can’t get tested in the early days of the illness. But that’s precisely when the test – IF IT WORKED – would be useful. I didn’t know I had it. Like others, my early symptoms were very mild. I wasn’t at all sure. I didn’t cough, and my fever was low-grade. I had some suspicions. By Day 6, if I’d had access to a test, I’d have taken it. I’d have known sooner. I’d have taken my worsening symptoms more seriously, and acted just that little bit more quickly. I’d have gone to hospital at least a day sooner; maybe two days, maybe even three. I was lucky, but for another patient, those one or two or three days could easily be the difference between in-time and too-late.

I was tested beyond the point where it mattered to me and would make any real difference. An earlier test, if reliable, would have been far more effective and meaningful.

In conclusion:

The tests are, in my humble opinion, and to use the technical term, crap. The evidence is four false negatives out of five tests, between me and my sister’s friend. And, much more to the point, the ward doctor’s clear expectation and experience. All of this is entirely anecdotal, of course, but I hope you’ll understand that I wouldn’t feel comfortable keeping quiet about it.

In any case, by the time the tests are given to patients already in extremis, they are of precious little interest. The need-to-know ship has sailed.

In the early days of the infection, when doubt can cause delay in taking symptoms seriously, a reliable test could make all the difference. But in those early days, ordinary folk like you and me can’t access any test, reliable or otherwise.

There’s been so much talk about the number of tests, and “ramping them up”. But, if my experience is anything to go by, what matters is not so much the quantity as the meaningfulness of the tests: whether they are reliable; whether you can get them in a timely fashion; whether they can make a real difference to your care.

https://www.minghella.com/ramping-up-the-rubbish-three-reasons-covid-19-testing-is-useless/

[Queenslander]

Queensland has banned cruise ships from docking.

[Lofty]

Well you’re not spending all day in meetings with lots of different people everyday so your chances of catching it are hardly comparable.

Yeah if anything getting on rammed trains to manchester everyday until recently with all manner of waifs and strays - the majority of them seemingly ill in the run up to work from home - probably put me at a higher risk than the geezer in his meetings with officials. It's likely shaking hands with all those positive cases that did him, sure I read it has up to 4 weeks incubation.

[niko_cee]

Just seen Raab’s statement and, fuck me, there are the eyes of a man who has been told of dark possibilities.

Aye, he did look properly rattled.

[Giggles]

Have they correlated ‘obese’ with death from this? You think they’d have twigged that one a lot sooner.

[niko_cee]

Yeah, 'obese' seems to be a major comorbididty although it seems to translate through having other things like diabetes and high blood pressure (which are presumably more prevalent in the obese).

[Raoul Duke]

Queensland has banned cruise ships from docking.

Why the fuck are cruise ships even moving around now?

[Queenslander]

Why the fuck are cruise ships even moving around now?

I think they are trying to offload all their sick crew and passengers but no where will take them apart from Western Australia and NSW untill recently. Both states fucked it up completely I think. The Australians are allowed off but everyone else is told to die at sea.


The Ruby Princess is a ship of death.


Manslaughter charges not ruled out in Ruby Princess deadly debacle

https://www.9news.com.au/national/ruby-princess-coronavirus-manslaughter-charges-not-ruled-out-cruise-ship-debacle/1493c6e7-8736-4d06-9a1b-7ff6c38476a2


Auroro is another death trap.

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/were-sitting-ducks-say-aussies-on-adventure-ship-in-uraguay/

Artania


Artania passengers claim 'gross negligence' as cruise operators dodge questions


https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/artania-passengers-claim-gross-negligence-as-cruise-operators-dodge-questions-20200406-p54hbv.html

[Queenslander]

Queensland politician, NSW Premier being the 1st, has also said social distancing will stay unill a vaccine is found.

[niko_cee]

Does that means your society is going to remain largely closed until this time next year (I don't know, are pubs etc closed there now)? Good luck with that.

[Queenslander]

Does that means your society is going to remain largely closed until this time next year (I don't know, are pubs etc closed there now)? Good luck with that.

I cant find an articlr to back it up just yet but I assume we become the Socialist Republic of Australia?


Here are our state by state guidelines.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/07/social-distancing-rules-australia-coronavirus-strict-new-laws-legal-illegal-state-physical-restrictions-guidelines-explained-nsw-victoria-qld-queensland-act-sa-wa-two-person-rule

[niko_cee]

Democratic People's Republic more like.

[Queenslander]

Democratic People's Republic of Àodàlìyǎ

[Offshore Toon]

One factor not being considered is that Boris is/was a massive cokehead. He's probably in ICU as a precautionary measure, but I bet his general health is very poor.

[John Arne]

I just watched a little bit of Sky News... They are loving this, and the lead guy, I think it's Adam Bolton is basically asking every guests 'when is Boris going to die'? They can't wait.

[Shindig]

One factor not being considered is that Boris is/was a massive cokehead. He's probably in ICU as a precautionary measure, but I bet his general health is very poor.

Yeah, so is heart might be ... on the edge. Moving him to ICU to be close to a ventilator sounds like when not if.

[phonics]

You'll all be shocked to know that Trump and his cabinet have investments in that company making the untested drug he keeps banging on about.

[Shindig]

The anti-malaria one? I'd be all in for that as well given the AIDS pandemic. Supply and demand, suckers.

EDIT: Gove's isolating.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Just sitting here listening to our MD discuss with operations guy whether we can cut the cleaners down to 2 days a week due to the reduced number of people in the office.

It's truly a special time in our lives.

[-james-]

1247263675423080455

[Yevrah]

That is absolutely dreadful.

[Waffdon]

:D

Hardly

[niko_cee]

It's just a bit rubbish.

[phonics]

I hate when people meme and use the wrong clip.

[Don]

That coffin meme is superb, was only made aware of it yesterday but some absolutely belting ones about :D (I'd link but it's whatsapp so join The Group (pm kiko))

[Smjffy]

It makes me feel really uncomfortable at the amount of lol'ing in this thread in regards to those infected and the deaths. I'm no fan of Boris but at times like this do you really look at him as a prime minister and not a human being? It just seems so poor in taste.

My sister had to move out of her home yesterday as one of the places she's had to go to has is rampant with it so she's had to leave her 10 month old baby with her husband whilst she continues to work, straight off maternity leave and into the firing line. It was heartbreaking listening to her ball her eyes out about what's going on in the care homes and hospitals but still too many seem to not be taking it as seriously as it should be taken.

I have my own health issues so I'm nervous but being where I currently am (down Cornwall) probably helps as I'm completely excluded from many people, other than a shop at the local co-op I don't leave my bedroom. I don't know how the next few weeks are going to play out as I fell through the cracks of being furloughed due to my start date which is shit but putting things into perspective, I don't think I have it all too bad compared to the stories I've heard and the situation some find themselves in. I had hoped that by time this is all over then people would be a bit more human towards one another as I have it in mind that this is going to be a one off. I really do see us all back in this situation not long after it finally ends.

[mugbull]

1247263675423080455

You'll be pleased to know You'll be pleased to know You'll be pleased to know

[Waffdon]

It makes me feel really uncomfortable at the amount of lol'ing in this thread in regards to those infected and the deaths. I'm no fan of Boris but at times like this do you really look at him as a prime minister and not a human being? It just seems so poor in taste.

My sister had to move out of her home yesterday as one of the places she's had to go to has is rampant with it so she's had to leave her 10 month old baby with her husband whilst she continues to work, straight off maternity leave and into the firing line. It was heartbreaking listening to her ball her eyes out about what's going on in the care homes and hospitals but still too many seem to not be taking it as seriously as it should be taken.

I have my own health issues so I'm nervous but being where I currently am (down Cornwall) probably helps as I'm completely excluded from many people, other than a shop at the local co-op I don't leave my bedroom. I don't know how the next few weeks are going to play out as I fell through the cracks of being furloughed due to my start date which is shit but putting things into perspective, I don't think I have it all too bad compared to the stories I've heard and the situation some find themselves in. I had hoped that by time this is all over then people would be a bit more human towards one another as I have it in mind that this is going to be a one off. I really do see us all back in this situation not long after it finally ends.

He’s a horrible dickhead who can be treated as such.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My furloughed colleague messaged over lunch to say his gran has Covid and is as good as dead (my words but his analysis). It's coming for us all.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He’s a horrible dickhead who can be treated as such.

Takes one to know one, young man.

[Lee]

854 new dead. Inflated a bit because Scotland apparently don’t count many at weekends.

[Waffdon]

I’ve not managed to fuck it as badly as him thankfully. But I agree on the whole, still love most of all you lot though.

Xx

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/mixed-martial-arts/52199255

UFC president Dana White says he is close to securing a private island to continue hosting fights during the coronavirus crisis.

White says UFC 249 will go ahead on 18 April at an undisclosed location.

:harold:

[Smjffy]

854 new dead. Inflated a bit because Scotland apparently don’t count many at weekends.

Do you have numbers for those who have recovered etc too? We need something more positive than constant deaths.

Cheers Lee.

[John Arne]

China recorded is first 0 dead yesterday.

Also, re the UFC - with most airports and flights cancelled, how does Dana expect fighters, refs and officials to get to this magical Island??

[Shindig]

Private charters.

[Pepe]

A fighting tournament in an undisclosed remote island? Sounds like something Jean Claude Van Damme would be involved with.

[Lee]

Do you have numbers for those who have recovered etc too? We need something more positive than constant deaths.

Cheers Lee.

No but I’m only nicking the official government numbers. Recoveries will take a while to get much over deaths I think because you need two negative tests before you’re set free and the results can take a little while. But recoveries will far outstrip deaths in official numbers later on and in reality by far more as loads will have had it and not known/thought it was something else.

[Disco]

A fighting tournament in an undisclosed remote island? Sounds like something Jean Claude Van Damme would be involved with.

:D

[Don]

Someone linked me to a quote by Icke about deaths not having risen in comparison to last year and it's a shame the fucking nut is doing his bit to discredit the argument by busting his load prematurely but it's a shane the stats aren't widely available afaik.

This however, does seem to indicate the quarantine is working if stats of NHS triages and online assessments are anything to go by. I mean a slump is possibly owed to the dying down of hype over general span of time but probably not to that extent.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzhiNTlhZmUtYmI1Zi00NWU1LTgzNWUtNGV iZTExNzlhMGFkIiwidCI6IjUwZjYwNzFmLWJiZmUtNDAxYS04O DAzLTY3Mzc0OGU2MjllMiIsImMiOjh9

[Waffdon]

Never had so many neg and pos ‘rep’ in one thread in my life. What a time to be alive.

[Ian]

A fighting tournament in an undisclosed remote island? Sounds like something Jean Claude Van Damme would be involved with.

I was about to go "Bloodsport 2 :drool:" but a quick Google has confirmed the inevitable: It had a load of shit sequels.

Still, the villain of Bloodsport 4: The Dark Kumite has a villain called 'Justin Caesar' so there's that.

[Pepe]

What is Waffelz on about? Someone give me a rundown.

[Waffdon]

People get far too offended with ease these days, Sir, is all.

[Baz]

What is Waffelz on about? Someone give me a rundown.Boris Johson represents the Conservative [political] Party and is basically a cliche of a Tory cunt.

[Pepe]

Why is Waffelz getting repped? Someone quote the relevant post.

[phonics]

A fighting tournament in an undisclosed remote island? Sounds like something Jean Claude Van Damme would be involved with.

This ends with Dana White throwing Khabib into a volcano and him being reborn as Devil Khabib.

[Giggles]

I'm getting tested this week for work :uhoh:

[Adramelch]

Austria and Denmark already laying out plans for reopening the country.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/austria-coronavirus-lockdown-end/2020/04/06/b4dedd8e-7805-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html

[Shindig]

This ends with Dana White throwing Khabib into a volcano and him being reborn as Devil Khabib.

Or Beach Volleyball.

[bruhnaldo]

China recorded

But they really haven't have they

[niko_cee]

Iran still rock steady in the low-to-mid 100s.

[John Arne]

But they really haven't have they

Western propaganda :drool:

[bruhnaldo]

51 deaths in Palm Beach county alone :(

[Shindig]

Our case numbers are coming down. Huraah!

[Kikó]

Someone linked me to a quote by Icke about deaths not having risen in comparison to last year and it's a shame the fucking nut is doing his bit to discredit the argument by busting his load prematurely but it's a shane the stats aren't widely available afaik.

This however, does seem to indicate the quarantine is working if stats of NHS triages and online assessments are anything to go by. I mean a slump is possibly owed to the dying down of hype over general span of time but probably not to that extent.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzhiNTlhZmUtYmI1Zi00NWU1LTgzNWUtNGV iZTExNzlhMGFkIiwidCI6IjUwZjYwNzFmLWJiZmUtNDAxYS04O DAzLTY3Mzc0OGU2MjllMiIsImMiOjh9

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglan dandwales

[Don]

Ooo you beaut. Will look tomorrow as I've packed up my work laptop for the day.

[Shindig]

I would very much like the press to fuck off with the, "Level with us. How long will this last?" bullshit. We've got months until an exit strategy is needed unless it completely starts to vanish.

[John Arne]

Quarter-final results.

https://gyazo.com/b6f6d89011719f70bdcd77f07133c7d1.jpeg

[phonics]

1247552234487009281

lol

[Shindig]

A famous victory for the Swiss.

[bruhnaldo]

Are you fucking kidding me?

[bruhnaldo]

https://i.imgur.com/x2g8IJg.png

[Don]

Kudos :D

[Don]

What's E&W? I assume it's a total death figure. Get me the same for 2020.

Edit: England and Wales, you cunt.

[John Arne]

What's E&W? I assume it's a total death figure. Get me the same for 2020.

Edit: England and Wales, you cunt.

Yeah, just noticed 2020 figures are there too... One moment.

[Don]

Someone get the TTH twitter account ready. We might need the results released tonight. Waff you're heading the online traffic strategy.

[Shindig]

The 2020 numbers are in the link Lee provided. Looking at it, we're under the average taken from the previous five years until the back end of March.

[John Arne]

What's E&W? I assume it's a total death figure. Get me the same for 2020.

Edit: England and Wales, you cunt.

https://gyazo.com/cbf118887783ca9846677811fd3ac5bf.jpeg

What is interesting is the like-for-like number of deaths of Men over 75..... (to follow)

[Don]

I don't know what's straighter, that Orange line or my erect penis.

[phonics]

We're going out next time because lads... we've only gone and flattened the curve :cool:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/270326079648956433/697133155022274600/unknown.png

[bruhnaldo]

Congrats on getting the other 19 people in your country to stay home or whatever.

[niko_cee]

France have timed their run poorly. How have Italy done them?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Belgium went through the ceiling today so they will stuff the fading Italians in the semi.

[John Arne]

Over 75's 2017-2020, 1) all deaths (incl. COVID) and 2) deaths with underlying respiratory disease, not attributed to Covid-19.

Sudden late spike make it a little interesting, but nothing alarmingly dodgy.

https://gyazo.com/b277c4290bd4aa40d867045cdce44c5e.jpeg

[phonics]

Congrats on getting the other 19 people in your country to stay home or whatever.

I just did a quick search of the data and found that per million people, Switzerland did 21,300% more tests than the US. Git gud.

[7om]

I'm well up for a Twitter misinformation campaign. I'm ready and willing, Taz.

[Don]

Yeah that spike could be the start but also, Over 75s isn't the hill we want to die on here. That first chart but replace the 'underlying respiratory diseases' datasets with just the total deaths and let's see the relationship between the Covid deaths and the total deaths.

[Adramelch]

France have timed their run poorly. How have Italy done them?

Numbers seem wrong to be honest. At least if worldofmeters is accurate (which it is for France at least), France had a total of 1351 death which corresponds to 20.16 Dp1m and Italy had a total of 1161 which corresponds to 19.28 Dp1m. Classic Italian move to bribe officials tbh.

But other than that, we didn't think strategically about releasing the care home death numbers meaning we would never get past Belgium anyway. Wasted them on Portugal. Belgium on the other hand released unreported deaths today, hence the big jump.

[bruhnaldo]

Fuck are these guys talkin about man

Edit: the ones tryin to do twitter olympics or some shit

[Don]

Listen mate, we're about to reveal the scaley skin of these lizards good and proper so nail your colours to the mast early like 7om or miss out on the bountiful rewards our people shall enjoy.

[Shindig]

A third of France's death toll is from care homes. :|

[John Arne]

Yeah that spike could be the start but also, Over 75s isn't the hill we want to die on here. That first chart but replace the 'underlying respiratory diseases' datasets with just the total deaths and let's see the relationship between the Covid deaths and the total deaths.

We only really have 1 full week of COVID deaths, so we need a few more weeks to see the full picture, but the spike is real.

https://gyazo.com/4be856073ee0a0156ff29d0d001af04c.jpeg

[John Arne]

Numbers seem wrong to be honest. At least if worldofmeters is accurate (which it is for France at least), France had a total of 1351 death which corresponds to 20.16 Dp1m and Italy had a total of 1161 which corresponds to 19.28 Dp1m. Classic Italian move to bribe officials tbh.


World of meters doesn't always update their daily figures on time, so I use ourworldindata (Oxford Uni)

[Adramelch]

A third of France's death toll is from care homes. :|

Yeah it's such a horrible though. Sure death is death, but it's pretty fucking depressing to think of these people dying in those homes, possibly having not seen any relatives for weeks.

[Adramelch]

World of meters doesn't always update their daily figures on time, so I use ourworldindata (Oxford Uni)

Well the French numbers are wrong. Government site has them at the same as worldofmeters, 518 on Sunday and 833 yesterday.

That said, 1417 deaths for France today (it's mostly more care home data coming in, but still). :|

[Shindig]

Yeah it's such a horrible though. Sure death is death, but it's pretty fucking depressing to think of these people dying in those homes, possibly having not seen any relatives for weeks.

It's more how the disease charges through care homes. You'd be better off hospitalising them just to get them away from other people at risk. Or you really have to gear the home up like a sterile ward.

[Spikey M]

A third of France's death toll is from care homes. :|

Happened in Spain and Italy too. It'll happen here. It's a perfect storm once a case gets in to one.

[Don]

The fuck were the lizards putting in our water in 2018 for there to be so many more deaths? And what is that 3 week spike about in March? :cab:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Beast from the East wasn't it? Probably finished a few off.

[phonics]

The fuck were the lizards putting in our water in 2018 for there to be so many more deaths? And what is that 3 week spike about in March? :cab:

That'd be the other incoming disaster that we all ignore until it's too late. Storms caused by Climate Change.

[mugbull]

That'd be the other incoming disaster that we all ignore until it's too late. Storms caused by Climate Change.

Inb4 a truck driver tells us how it’s all a scam

[Baz]

Tax’s enthusiasm and John Arne’s devotion to this thread is outstanding.

[Don]

That'd be the other incoming disaster that we all ignore until it's too late. Storms caused by Climate Change.

Ain't no UK storm killed about 20K people in 2018. I imagine Jimmy is correct but March peaks still don't make sense. This could be the unearthings of a cover-up for some sort of ethnic cleansing programme. More on this as we get it

[Spikey M]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/04/uk-weather-big-freeze-death-toll-could-rise-2000-emerges-met/amp/

"More than 2300".

Still 17k to account for. When did 4G go mainstream? :sherlock:

[Shindig]

Maybe the flu jab was shite.

[Raoul Duke]

Does this "care home" figure include hospices? I'd imagine a lot of it is it running amok through them

[Kikó]

Heard the PM is on a ventilator.

[Giggles]

Did you not hear that last night too?

[Kikó]

No- yesterday just a bad way.

[Yevrah]

Source?

[Kikó]

Senior dude in North London Hospital.

[Spoonsky]

Ain't no UK storm killed about 20K people in 2018. I imagine Jimmy is correct but March peaks still don't make sense. This could be the unearthings of a cover-up for some sort of ethnic cleansing programme. More on this as we get it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_cold_wave

Cold front began 22 Feb and dissipated 5 March. Let's say that triggered unusually high numbers of flu cases and other illnesses, many of whom wouldn't have died until a couple weeks later. Seems to add up to me chief.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What happens if Boris carks it? Are we into government of national unity territory? Probably not as you can't just randomly change key jobs right now. So they'd have to crown Raab in about twenty minutes, get her maj to invite him to form a government via video link, and just carry on. Fucking hell. It's not often you feel for leading politicians but I do at the moment.

[Waffdon]

Seeing Jimmy like this is weird

[Adramelch]

Does this "care home" figure include hospices? I'd imagine a lot of it is it running amok through them

I think the French figure just includes any medical establishment other than hospitals really.

[bruhnaldo]

Senior dude in North London Hospital.

is this a real thing or

[Jimmy Floyd]

Seeing Jimmy like this is weird

Like what?

[Waffdon]

So pure and emotional.

[Shindig]

"Scottish man sees emotion for the first time! (MUST WATCH - NOT CLICKBAIT!)"

[Waffdon]

is this a real thing or

Never doubt Keeks. Arabs don’t lie.

[Lewis]

If he croaks then Dominic Raab stands in until things go back to normal and then they run a leadership contest. It's not actually a war.

[Waffdon]

"Scottish man sees emotion for the first time! (MUST WATCH - NOT CLICKBAIT!)"

I’m as emotional as it comes with my bipolar :D

[Yevrah]

If he croaks then Dominic Raab stands in until things go back to normal and then they run a leadership contest. It's not actually a war.

Raab looks like a man who would last about 5 minutes heading this up.

[7om]

Maybot v2.0.

[Don]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_cold_wave

Cold front began 22 Feb and dissipated 5 March. Let's say that triggered unusually high numbers of flu cases and other illnesses, many of whom wouldn't have died until a couple weeks later. Seems to add up to me chief.

Jesus, didn't know it was so late in the year.

[Waffdon]

Hope none of you worriers get bad hay fever. Worst pollen count in 70 years. 2020 is some year.

[Shindig]

If he croaks then Dominic Raab stands in until things go back to normal and then they run a leadership contest. It's not actually a war.

It it transpires the Chinese actually developed the virus as a weapon then this is technically an assassination. :dc:

[Lewis]

Raab looks like a man who would last about 5 minutes heading this up.

It can't be that hard from here. We're all doing what we're doing, people will eventually slow their dying down, and then the eggheads can just advise on whatever.

[Jimmy Floyd]

So pure and emotional.

Yeah, because this thing is terrifying. I'm frightened that I'll get it, I'm frightened that people I know and love will get it. I'm frightened of the effect that possibly losing loved ones might have on me or people I know and love. I'm frightened that all the forms of social contact that make life worth living won't be able to resume for months or years or not at all. And yes, when the PM of the country of which you are a citizen and have lived happily in all your life looks like he's on the way out from it, that frightens me as well.

I was in the same boat as most people not taking this seriously until I read a certain report from Italy one of the early days which hit home, and since that point I've been living on the edge of nerves and feeling like I can see the truth of this more clearly than everyone - which I can't, but it feels like I can. A month ago I spent a full evening trying to persuade my dad not to go into London anymore, where he often goes. I spent weeks trying to get friends to take it seriously until lockdown happened. That is a raw feeling and like nothing I have ever experienced.

I had a bad moment earlier when I had one of those Proustian recollections, stood in a certain point in the office and remembered standing in the same spot in 2018 to pull out Germany in the World Cup office sweepstakes (that went well), and what a fucking innocent time that now seems.

[Queenslander]

NSW coronavirus social-distancing to stay 'until vaccine is found', Premier Gladys Berejiklian says


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/nsw-coronavirus-social-distancing-to-stay-until-vaccine-found/12126802

[Waffdon]

Such a beautiful post. Thank you.

For what it’s worth, I’m taking all of this seriously and as before mentioned, haven’t even left my garden in two weeks and only left for work the two days prior. Which isn’t exactly good for mental health, never mind someone as mental as me. I’m slowly going insane but it is what it is.

I just don’t like Boris and it’s funny winding up weird right wing mentalist on Twitter

[mugbull]

Yeah, because this thing is terrifying. I'm frightened that I'll get it, I'm frightened that people I know and love will get it. I'm frightened of the effect that possibly losing loved ones might have on me or people I know and love. I'm frightened that all the forms of social contact that make life worth living won't be able to resume for months or years or not at all. And yes, when the PM of the country of which you are a citizen and have lived happily in all your life looks like he's on the way out from it, that frightens me as well.

I was in the same boat as most people not taking this seriously until I read a certain report from Italy one of the early days which hit home, and since that point I've been living on the edge of nerves and feeling like I can see the truth of this more clearly than everyone - which I can't, but it feels like I can. A month ago I spent a full evening trying to persuade my dad not to go into London anymore, where he often goes. I spent weeks trying to get friends to take it seriously until lockdown happened. That is a raw feeling and like nothing I have ever experienced.

I had a bad moment earlier when I had one of those Proustian recollections, stood in a certain point in the office and remembered standing in the same spot in 2018 to pull out Germany in the World Cup office sweepstakes (that went well), and what a fucking innocent time that now seems.

Disagree, but i really respect you talking forthrightly like this. You show your human side a lot more these days and it’s really nice

[Shindig]

I wonder about the long term a fair bit. This is 6-18 months of our lives that we just won't get back. That's a bit bleak and all you can do is sit and wait it out.

[Vercetti]

Chris Whitty looks like someone used an ageing app on an ugly child.

[phonics]

Yeah, because this thing is terrifying. I'm frightened that I'll get it, I'm frightened that people I know and love will get it. I'm frightened of the effect that possibly losing loved ones might have on me or people I know and love. I'm frightened that all the forms of social contact that make life worth living won't be able to resume for months or years or not at all. And yes, when the PM of the country of which you are a citizen and have lived happily in all your life looks like he's on the way out from it, that frightens me as well.

I was in the same boat as most people not taking this seriously until I read a certain report from Italy one of the early days which hit home, and since that point I've been living on the edge of nerves and feeling like I can see the truth of this more clearly than everyone - which I can't, but it feels like I can. A month ago I spent a full evening trying to persuade my dad not to go into London anymore, where he often goes. I spent weeks trying to get friends to take it seriously until lockdown happened. That is a raw feeling and like nothing I have ever experienced.

I had a bad moment earlier when I had one of those Proustian recollections, stood in a certain point in the office and remembered standing in the same spot in 2018 to pull out Germany in the World Cup office sweepstakes (that went well), and what a fucking innocent time that now seems.

I'm very much the opposite of Jim on this, I was very well informed to the point I was telling a colleague to stop being such a reactionary freak about it sometime in mid-January. Part of my job is knowing that the world will let a certain amount of people die and a large proportion of people that don't matter die with zero fanfare. If you ever see a 'local' health issue story, there's always a massive correlation between the population of that place and the people that don't matter to society. In Russia, I see it with homosexuals. In America, I see it with black people. In the UK, I see it with the working class. In Latin America, it's all three.

I've taken it in stride because I know that I don't know better and rely on those in the position to to know better. I started working from home 9 working days before we were forced to (this is 3-4 weeks before the UK put in similar measures) for this reason.

I understand Jim's reaction but I'd also like people of his general persuasion to look in the mirror when people are bleating on about an issue as if it's a crisis on all these issues that face us.

Over this time we have seen the true face of the Winner-Takes-All mentality when it comes to Health, Economics and Society. The three pillars of humanity.

It's right to be emotional, it's fucking horrific out there. And we can do something about it. If we choose to. It's why I struggle to sympathise with Boris, he wanted to keep life as normal because it would cause the people close to him economic harm, there was no other reason to follow that argument in the face of everything. If so, his selfishness will be his downfall which while I can feel bad on a human level, I refuse to feel bad on my positions across the issue.

[niko_cee]

Jimmy Greaves has chosen a bad time to fall ill if his 'unspecified illness' isn't covid.

[Lewis]

For somebody whose job is to be very well informed on these matters your last paragraph is some serious wank.

[phonics]

For somebody whose job is to be very well informed on these matters your last paragraph is some serious wank.

What do you mean by 'these matters'.

[Lewis]

Hang on, I've misread that first paragraph. I should have just lolled at thinking the government's policy was dictated by the economic concerns of those close to Boris Johnson.

[phonics]

Hang on, I've misread that first paragraph. I should have just lolled at thinking the government's policy was dictated by the economic concerns of those close to Boris Johnson.

Your economic relief function was to implement something half of what Swtizerland has had as a day-to-day asset since the day you were born.

Outside of economic issues and into race/sexuality, I can literally pull the statistics. Stomp being a gombine weirdo.

[Lewis]

What? Pull the shite published relating to the policy implementation[s] instead. Try to find where the obvious solution was it where it was ignored.

[phonics]

What? Pull the shite published relating to the policy implementation[s] instead. Try to find where the obvious solution was it where it was ignored.

There's not many reflections on how shitty COVID prevention implementation was in the middle of the first pandemic, weirdly. If you mean generally. Here is the Vice President on HIV.


In November 2014, the first HIV infection in Scott County attributed to this outbreak was diagnosed. By January 2015, 17 new HIV infections had been recorded, and the Indiana State Department of Health began an investigation, but it wasn’t until late February 2015 that Indiana state officials even notified local authorities in Scott County about the crisis in their midst.


As late as early March 2015, Pence still resisted calls to establish needle exchange programs even though state legislators from Pence’s own party were now advocating for them (https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/under-pences-leadership-response-to-heroin-epidemic-criticized-as-ineffective-226759). Pence supported the federal ban on needle exchange and also his state’s prohibition; a Republican state legislator, Ed Clere, told a reporter (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/us/politics/mike-pence-needle-exchanges-indiana.html) that Pence’s staff members “made it clear that he was categorically opposed to syringe exchange, period.”


However, after meeting with officials from the Indiana State Department of Health and the CDC, and an evening telephone conversation with Scott County Sheriff Daniel McClain on March 23rd, Pence said he would “go home and pray on it.”


On March 25, 2015, Pence finally declared a public health emergency, which permitted needle exchange in the town. Several days later, an HIV testing clinic opened. In early April, after consultations with Indiana State Department of Health, CDC and local law enforcement, Pence established a temporary syringe-exchange program for 30 days. Finally, in May 2015, Pence signed a bill that allowed counties in Indiana to apply for permission to establish syringe-exchange programs. These exchange programs were temporary and did not receive state money.


On the same day, however, Pence also undermined the effects of the new law, signing another bill that toughened the punishment for people found carrying needles. It upgraded possession of a syringe with intent to commit an offense with a controlled substance from a misdemeanor to a felony charge, subject to imprisonment for up to 2.5 years. Criminalizing possession of syringes, even clean ones, without a prescription undermines efforts to slow transmission of HIV among injection drug users, and may actually encourage needle sharing (http://lawatlas.org/datasets/syringe-policies-laws-regulating-non-retail-distribution-of-drug-parapherna).

*co-incidentally there's lots of black people in this group. Weird.

This happens all the time. Across all issues.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Criticising politicians for handling of this is so lazy. It's hit us all like a freight train and outside of police state measures (which are themselves inhuman), nobody has the first clue how to deal with it, especially in large complex nations. So Denmark are re-opening nurseries, well done them, they have 5.8 million people on a peninsula with one city more populous than Sunderland. You can't keep tabs on France, or Italy, or the UK, or America like that.

[phonics]

I'll ignore the whole concept of the 'government is bad' guy telling me that the government did all they can do shite.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm not the government is bad guy. You just think I am because you've put me in a lazy pigeon hole.

No doubt any government in the world COULD have handled it better, ranging from the Chinese communists to the mayor of Milan to us to Trump, but they had no way of knowing how or when or how much until the thing had already gone off like a rocket.

[phonics]

Criticising politicians for handling of this is so lazy. It's hit us all like a freight train and outside of police state measures (which are themselves inhuman), nobody has the first clue how to deal with it, especially in large complex nations. So Denmark are re-opening nurseries, well done them, they have 5.8 million people on a peninsula with one city more populous than Sunderland. You can't keep tabs on France, or Italy, or the UK, or America like that.

The guy who had to stage a coup to get his boss to send people home thinks that criticising it's leaders is beyond the pale.


I'm not the government is bad guy. You just think I am because you've put me in a lazy pigeon hole.

No doubt any government in the world COULD have handled it better, ranging from the Chinese communists to the mayor of Milan to us to Trump, but they had no way of knowing how or when or how much until the thing had already gone off like a rocket.


This was replying to Lewis, not you.

[Jimmy Floyd]

There are degrees of difficulty and complexity in decision-making. If I said managing Denmark was easier than managing a large nation, then imagine how much easier it is to manage a 50 man setup in Surrey. And then me, making decisions for my one man household, that's frankly been a piece of piss.

[phonics]

There are degrees of difficulty and complexity in decision-making. If I said managing Denmark was easier than managing a large nation, then imagine how much easier it is to manage a 50 man setup in Surrey. And then me, making decisions for my one man household, that's frankly been a piece of piss.

We have literal open borders with 2 of the countries you said it's hard to manage. We closed those borders almost less than a month after this thread was made. More than a month before the UK went on lockdown. Stop making excuses for people failing to act.

[Lewis]

There's not many reflections on how shitty COVID prevention implementation was in the middle of the first pandemic, weirdly. If you mean generally. Here is the Vice President on HIV.

*co-incidentally there's lots of black people in this group. Weird.

This happens all the time. Across all issues.

I'm not sure what you think you're telling me. Lots of people die of things around the world and nobody cares? I know. It's literally my entire approach to every miserable shit thing that happens the world over, and pretty much the entire reason I wasn't taking it all particularly seriously early doors, because why would you shut your country down indefinitely when even a hundred thousand dead is not really a lot in the grand scheme of things (we briefly had that discussion in this thread)?

Again, what obvious stuff was being discounted 'in the face of everything'?

[phonics]

I'm not sure what you think you're telling me. Lots of people die of things around the world and nobody cares? I know. It's literally my entire approach to every miserable shit thing that happens the world over, and pretty much the entire reason I wasn't taking it all particularly seriously early doors, because why would you shut your country down indefinitely when even a hundred thousand dead is not really a lot in the grand scheme of things (we briefly had that discussion in this thread)?

Again, what obvious stuff was being discounted 'in the face of everything'?

They literally changed their policy on the basis that what they were doing would kill a quarter of a million people for no reason...

Do you think nobody else who had already changed their policies weeks prior had noticed that detail?

[Lewis]

If you follow that logic then everybody who had changed their policies weeks prior had also already failed by not instantly copying the Chinese quarantine efforts as soon as the first cases were detected in their countries (or even before). The Chinese had noticed the detail[s], so what were Italy and Switzerland and everyone else playing at? Their leaders must have been equally sensitive to the JCB share price as ours were.

The British government, like the other governments who apparently got it all right first time, embarked on a graduated policy accelerated (not 'changed' in the conventional sense) by new information coming in. The Italians, who were seemingly well ahead of the LOCKDOWN curve, to the point where us mongs ought to have been following their lead, didn't shut non-essential businesses until after we did. What obvious details were they missing that our clever lot hit upon?

[phonics]

If you follow that logic then everybody who had changed their policies weeks prior had also already failed by not instantly copying the Chinese quarantine efforts as soon as the first cases were detected in their countries (or even before). The Chinese had noticed the detail[s], so what were Italy and Switzerland and everyone else playing at? Their leaders must have been equally sensitive to the JCB share price as ours were.

Yep. Whats your point?

[Lewis]

If everybody's an idiot then nobody is an idiot, and it follows that your preferred response would have been to shut the entire country down six weeks (you apparently being on the case in mid-January) before the first death was even registered here. Fair play. Can't believe the scientists never considered that.

[phonics]

Your leaders had advance notice and did even less...

It’s absolutely pathetic how you try to hold the ‘lots of people dying... who cares?’ Position and the ‘we did all we could with the information at the time’ position at the same time.

[Don]

Unless you're setting the bar to be South Korea, UK government have done fine in response to this. Even the decade of underfunding the NHS seems to have been made light work of with this Nightingale cheat (if they do indeed manage to keep their head reasonably above water with their ICU capacity).

[Giggles]

I don’t like all this honest posting. Jimmy has a persona to keep up and without those, this place is nothing.

[Luca]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jose-mourinho-warned-over-tottenham-hotspurs-park-training-f3qb5cds2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586291804

"I have nussin' to say"

[hfswjyr]

It looks to me like some countries are doing more than others to try and control this virus.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5P88TVa3q0Q

There is no way NZ would have the resources or political will to implement something like this. So instead, we have been in lockdown since 25th March. We've had 1 death so far.

[John Arne]

Phonics knowing about the magnitude of this in mid-January and not sharing with us is a bit of a blow to the community. Could've saved a few TTH's.

Meanwhile, I passed 4 (FOUR) temperature checks today :cool:

[Yeldoow]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts


World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.

The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid-19.

Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.

The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 24,500 intensive care beds will be needed and 799 are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 21,000 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.

The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.

The IHME bases its forecasts in large part on the trajectory of deaths rather than case numbers and the speed with which distancing measures were put in place.

The UK will be severely short of beds, it finds. Germany, by contrast, is predicted to have enough hospital beds, including ICU beds, needed for its peak. The IHME predicts Germany will have 8,802 deaths in total by 4 August.

France will have enough general beds but will be about 4,000 short of ICU beds at the peak, says the forecast. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. Both Italy and Spain are past their peaks, says the IHME.

The IHME, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, published its forecast for the US on Sunday, revising down the projected number of Covid-19 deaths there from 93,500 to 81,800. These figures were relied on in part for the US government’s own, higher predictions of the coronavirus death toll.

In March, modellers relied on by the UK government, led by the team at Imperial College London, said deaths could reach 260,000 in the UK with no restrictions on movement, but they hoped to get deaths down to 20,000 through the lockdown strategy.

Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.

The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.

The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said:

What had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain.
What had happened so far in the UK.
When physical distancing measures were put in place.


In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths.

The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 daily deaths.

“We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe,” said the IHME director, Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.

“It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well-implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates.

“Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates.

“Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

Murray cautioned that easing these precautions too soon during the first wave of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of infections, hospitalisations and deaths. He defined the end of this “wave” as a ratio of 0.3 deaths per 1 million people.

“To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would need to consider mass testing, contact tracing and quarantines for those infected until a vaccination is available, mass-produced and distributed widely,” Murray said.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Our response to coronavirus – including decisions on which measures we introduce and when – is based on the latest scientific advice, modelling and evidence, and we are working round the clock with world-renowned clinicians, public health experts and scientists to keep this country safe.

“In England alone, the NHS successfully has freed up more than 33,000 beds – the equivalent of 50 new hospitals – and we are increasing the number of ventilators and opening more Nightingale hospitals, all of which will save even more lives in the coming weeks.”

[John Arne]

Oh, and you're welcome.

1247461584974348288

[John Arne]

Looks promising…

https://gyazo.com/413383caad7dbda565fe8dbd67ed1c2f.jpeg

[Giggles]

Minister Dung.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I will repay Vice Minister Dung's gesture by eating some silky rice noodles when this is over.

[Ian]

I'd say that's fair recompense for my V-League Special.

[John Arne]

I'd say that's fair recompense for my V-League Special.

*V.League

[niko_cee]

Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.

The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 24,500 intensive care beds will be needed and 799 are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 21,000 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.

Those numbers don't seem to really make any sense unless I'm missing something. 799 available beds? As in that's the total capacity of ICU beds in the whole of the UK? Or 24000 new ones will be needed on day X but only 799 will remain by that point? It sort of looks like the total hospital beds and total ICU beds columns have been shifted.

[Shindig]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Yeah, I don't hold much weight with projections now. You won't know the peak until you're in it and you can't predict how quick it'll drop off. 14,000 to 200,000 is a big fucking range to draw from and those numbers are always being revised down. The US went from 100,000 projected deaths to 81,000 after just a couple of days extra data.

[Ian]

*V.League

Are you saying it'd have been 150k masks if I'd got that right?

Pedantic twats.

[Yeldoow]

Yeah, I don't hold much weight with projections now. You won't know the peak until you're in it and you can't predict how quick it'll drop off. 14,000 to 200,000 is a big fucking range to draw from and those numbers are always being revised down. The US went from 100,000 projected deaths to 81,000 after just a couple of days extra data.

I'm taking that with a large pinch of salt, but it's quite the prediction.

[thommo]

We have literal open borders with 2 of the countries you said it's hard to manage. We closed those borders almost less than a month after this thread was made. More than a month before the UK went on lockdown. Stop making excuses for people failing to act.

You don't help yourself when you just spout false claims half the time phonics.

[Lofty]

Glad to see two people I know, one with a failing dog grooming business that employs no staff (having blown her business loan on a new horse) and another who has been alternating work going through the books between two companies in a legal way that allows him to dodge tax have been given the £10k grants while they sit at home, I'm battering the laptop to keep the railway running like a mug not even guaranteed overtime paid as cash yet.

[Ian]

Glad to see two people I know, one with a failing dog grooming business that employs no staff (having blown her business loan on a new horse) and another who has been alternating work going through the books between two companies in a legal way that allows him to dodge tax have been given the £10k grants while they sit at home, I'm battering the laptop to keep the railway running like a mug not even guaranteed overtime paid as cash yet.

Maybe she just really needed that new horse.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If we get 66,000 dead with almost all of those coming in the month of April, as per that prediction, we'd be into bodies piling up in the streets territory. I don't sense that from my ivory tower here at spare pistons HQ.

[Jimmy Floyd]

On another note, one thing I have noticed while driving to and from work on the otherwise empty roads is that the quality of cyclist out and about now is TERRIBLE. People getting their bikes out for the first time in years just wobbling in and out, there will be deaths from this to add to the tally.

[Lewis]

Your leaders had advance notice and did even less...

It’s absolutely pathetic how you try to hold the ‘lots of people dying... who cares?’ Position and the ‘we did all we could with the information at the time’ position at the same time.

No, letting a load of people die is what I would have done. I recognise, however, that, out there in the real world (the soft-touch world), that was as much of a non-starter as your top secret January proposals to shut the country and save us all. With that in mind, I see what the government has done as a pretty reasonable middle ground accounting for this, that, and the other.

[Raoul Duke]

On another note, one thing I have noticed while driving to and from work on the otherwise empty roads is that the quality of cyclist out and about now is TERRIBLE. People getting their bikes out for the first time in years just wobbling in and out, there will be deaths from this to add to the tally.

I reckon the reduction in road traffic will beat out the lycra-clad morons though.

[Disco]

I go every other morning, it's quite nice finding the most recently resurfaced roads that are now almost completely empty.

[Shindig]

If we get 66,000 dead with almost all of those coming in the month of April, as per that prediction, we'd be into bodies piling up in the streets territory. I don't sense that from my ivory tower here at spare pistons HQ.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

There's nothing finely tuned about it. America's supposed to peak in 4 days. Assuming that peak is effectively NY's peak, it'll drop like a stone next week.

EDIT: Just seen the UK peak for deaths. Their projections:

6/4/2020 - 1,258 deaths - range from 574 to 2,500 (actual - 768)
7/4/2020 - 1,233 deaths

[Bernanke]

Got a really nasty sounding cough creeping in starting this morning. :uhoh:

[Shindig]

IMHE's data for Spain appears to be the most bollocks. 400 deaths for today lads. Oh.

[Alex]

I had the radio on about an hour ago and couldn't help but chuckle a little bit when Jeremy Vine segued nicely from Blue Oyster Cult's "Don't Fear the Reaper" straight into a segment on the virus wiping out old people in care homes. :face: / :D

[Lewis]

https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/motor-home-prostitute-sex-hull-4029366

lol at that anonymous tip-off.

[Disco]

Are all regional news sites utter fucking cancer? Just a raft of pop ups and overlays. :sick:

[Lewis]

And half the national ones.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This virus will finish off the newspaper industry for good. The big titles will hang on but the regionals will all die.

[niko_cee]

On the cycling front I was going to say that in 10 to 15 years we're in for a crop of top cyclists as every child who can walk is ostensibly now learning to ride a bike, probably more successfully that in the world of being able to do other stuff.

I'm curious as to what is happening with things like A&E waiting times now that there is little to no traffic, no going out on the lash and everyone is terrified to go anywhere near a hospital unless they absolutely have to. Presumably that'll all be lost in everything turning into a covid ward, but it'd be interesting to know the extent to which time-wasting twats being put off helps the system function. My suspicion has always been a lot.

[Ian]

I know from my sister and her friends when they all had kids of young ages that a lot of A&E time was being wasted by parents dashing to A&E at all hours with their kids over some non-ailment or another.

There was a period of time when I felt like I was being told every week or two that somebody they knew had "had to" go to the hospital with wee Hamish at 3am because he had a stomach ache and wouldn't go to sleep or some fucking nonsense that they were having a flap over.

[Waffdon]

936, on track for most in Europe.

But let’s clap for Boris

[Mellberg]

Arse still sore from that spanking the other night, Waff?

[Yeldoow]

What the current wisdom to the time lag between confirmed cases and deaths?

[Waffdon]

Arse still sore from that spanking the other night, Waff?

Do go on, Sir

[Yevrah]

I think the government has done ok with this, nothing more, nothing less.

You can say it's unprecedented in our lifetimes, and it is, but we knew what was coming before we did anything tangible about it, at least a week before we did anything tangible about it.

[Yevrah]

What the current wisdom to the time lag between confirmed cases and deaths?

About a month I'd say. A week to get sick(er), two weeks clinging to life and then chuck another week on that as who the fuck knows.

[bruhnaldo]

Part of my job is knowing that the world will let a certain amount of people die and a large proportion of people that don't matter die with zero fanfare.


I struggle to sympathise with Boris

Faced with the idea either thousands (millions?) of people suffer now or the idea that, if the economy goes completely bust, thousands or millions more will suffer later and for longer.... trying to find some kinda balance between those two things or else they combine and you get into Yevrah doomsday territory..

I'm not saying they're right, I'm not saying they're not all evil and corrupt at some level, but to say "well my job is to know people will die and no one will give a fuck so long as it benefits or doesn't harm the state" and then say you can't sympathize with the fuckin' Prime Minister of the UK like... I mean I guess, my man.

[bruhnaldo]

I mean some of you act like this is just a guy sitting in a room going "Yea idk mate just kinda forget it for now".

It's the Prime Minister of the UK, he's probably getting graphs, predictions, projections, figures...all the words for data you can think of.... from doctors, health experts, economists, etc. etc. all day long and then has to make a quick judgment based on those in the heat of the moment with absolutely zero historical data to go off of and pray that it all kinda works out.

They're not magicians, they're just people. Imagine seeing graphs and scenarios that say


"Sure, you can close the country, but the economy will implode on itself and we'll have 50%+ unemployment, which will deplete the available funds we have for pensions and social security payments or whatever, and then create an entire other whirlwind of bullshit we can't afford to pay for, do not currently have the appropriate infrastructure for, and will outright bankrupt and thrust 66 million people onto the frontlines of a mad max diaspora with nowhere to go ......."

but then the next graph and scenario says


"Okay, so you beg everyone to not purposefully infect themselves, a few dozen thousand people will likely die because people won't just follow simple directions and it'll be very sad, but once that's all over, this will all go back to normal and we'll still be able to actually fund the government, the country, and not turn into a 3rd world apocalyptic nightmare by winter."

And then the 100 scenarios in between.

And mind you, the man seems to have made the wrong decision, but by God when he made that decision he didn't go hole up in his office did he? He stood by it like a man.

Shook hands with folks he probably was heavily advised he shouldn't because he seemingly didn't want to appear like a coward who wasn't standing behind the decision he made and the risk he put the country in.

He bought into what he was preaching and now he's actually got the shit and is in the ICU because of that decision.

Disagree with the man's politics, wish for him to be banished from government, sure.. but this other stuff...Seems wrong man, it just seems wrong.

[Ian]

I'm not sure if I've misread that. Are you suggesting we should be applauding him for knowingly risking spreading the virus to more people when he absolutely didn't need to?

[bruhnaldo]

Not even close.

[Ian]

Excellent.

[Shindig]

Yeah, Boris would've been having meeting after meeting and shown model after model. Trying to make sense of a moving set of goalposts and then act accordingly must be a nightmare. Boris was very reluctant to shut up shop so, in that sense, we should've probably locked down a week or a few days sooner. The herd immunity thing was touted but never set in stone. Even if they wanted to implement it, you can't do it without the social distancing.

[bruhnaldo]

I'm sorry I went on a rant but I can rant here without being judged by people who will remember my existence after they scroll half a page down lol

Just frustrated by humans at the moment.

[Adramelch]

About a month I'd say. A week to get sick(er), two weeks clinging to life and then chuck another week on that as who the fuck knows.

I think you're massively overestimating the time lag here, at least on average. Surely a lot of those people die much faster (heavy underlying health issues accelerating the impact of the virus) and also a lot of those people only get tested after the "week to get sick(er)". Looking at the Italy data it looks more like 10-15 days.

[Lofty]

We all know Boris just Homer Simpsoned his way through those meetings and simply did what Dom recommended at the end.

[7om]

I'm sorry I went on a rant but I can rant here without being judged by people who will remember my existence after they scroll half a page down lol

Just frustrated by humans at the moment.

That's phonics for you.

None of us have the slightest clue what it must be like to try and make life or death decisions with endless amounts of experts giving conflicting opinions. It's an unimaginable position to be put in but, make no mistake, people will still find ways to complain and call decision-makers scum.

[phonics]

'The job I wanted to do is hard, it was supposed to be Brexit waaaaaaaaaaaaaah'

You lot are actually hardening my stance.

Bruh's reason that I should respect him is that he made the wrong decision and double downed on it. Absolutely mental. I never wished him death, I just said I don't have the energy to have sympathy for him.

[Yevrah]

Rishi really is fantastic.

[Waffdon]

Isn’t he a billionaire? Has he been asked to stop taking a wage like the footballers?

[bruhnaldo]

'The job I wanted to do is hard, it was supposed to be Brexit waaaaaaaaaaaaaah'

You lot are actually hardening my stance.

Bruh's reason that I should respect him is that he made the wrong decision and double downed on it. Absolutely mental. I never wished him death, I just said I don't have the energy to have sympathy for him.

My reasoning is more about you quantifying your criticism with a statement that could easily be applied to the person you're actively criticizing (and perhaps rightfully so, mind you) who didn't have the added wisdom of hindsight at the time he made those decisions but the weight of "knowing" otherwise.

Decisions, it could be said as a sidebar to that point, he stood by to the extent he is now in the ICU, and potentially yet may have to pay the ultimate price for his choice.

But again, it's the stubborn refusal to apply the logic of "part of (your) job is knowing that the world will let a certain amount of people die" as a basis of sympathy to a man who truly thought he was doing what was best for society during a non-partisan pandemic.

I'm not saying it matters to the grand scheme I just feel like the logical conclusion would be "I feel for anyone who has to make those decisions and live with the consequences because I know sometimes the facts of the matter are sometimes very difficult" rather than "haha well i didn't vote for him so, whatever happens happens, fam! Not feeling sorry for that guy".

[John Arne]

Did the Bloomberg journalist just ask whether we should leave the EU with everything that's going on :D

EDIT: Thankfully Sunak told him that we have left already.

[Baz]

From an ‘I don’t know him and have no connection to him’ way, and borne completely from a “what if?” mentality, I am completely not bothered if Boris carks it. I won’t go as far as wishing him dead, but ehhh it’ll be interesting if he does.

My personal opinion of him probably contributes to this beautiful dark twisted fantasy, mind, because I think he’s an atrocious person with terrible values and would love nothing more than for him to be outed as a nonce and shunned from every elite circle he’s part of.

[Don]

This virus will finish off the newspaper industry for good. The big titles will hang on but the regionals will all die.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/apr/08/jewish-chronicle-and-jewish-news-to-be-liquidated-and-staff-laid-off

You hate to see it.

[phonics]

I'm not saying it matters to the grand scheme I just feel like the logical conclusion would be "I feel for anyone who has to make those decisions and live with the consequences because I know sometimes the facts of the matter are sometimes very difficult"

Absolute simp shit. Leaders aren't good and largely don't care about you or your loved ones. Sorry.

[Giggles]

Shot like this always gets me. Should be shown to every single cunt going to a holiday home this weekend.


1247875969295224833

[Vercetti]

Boris definitely doesn't click on referral links, is my main take from the last couple of pages.

[Shindig]

Absolute simp shit. Leaders aren't good and largely don't care about you or your loved ones. Sorry.

But they have people they do care about. You've got a basketball.

[Spikey M]

Dub.

[7om]

Absolute simp shit.

And yet you're the one who sees almost every subject in binary terms.

[Byron]

You're forgetting the fact that he almost always wrong on everything as well.

[John Arne]

You're forgetting the fact that he almost always wrong on everything as well.

This. People should remember this.

[Giggles]

Headline of the year.


1247816511210872832

[Lofty]

TUI have cancelled all holidays departing up to the day before ours, bet we get caught up in this rumoured 'credit instead of refunds' bullshit floating about.

[Lewis]

I saw a copper chucking people off the beach an hour or so ago. They were all just sitting there spaced well apart, and there he was going from pair to pair telling them to get back on the busy promenade with all the runners and moochers and dickhead cyclists who suddenly don't want to use the roads now that they're empty.

[Kikó]

From my uncle who runs a company that looks after older people post surgery:

>We just letter from NHS because we look after some NHS patients and if your 65 to70 do t bother calling 999 since no ambulance will come !!we are suppose to nurse them at home but we dont have any protective equipment! So they will be left to die<

>I'm not sure what we will do but we cant really ask carers to go in apart from anything else we wouldn't be insured so I guess we will just keep dialling 999 ??<

>Have spent the last 4 days calling various nhs people , public health england social services etc and no one has any personal protective equipment .... despite what you hear from the government<

[Lewis]

1247937683088867329

:cool:

[Shindig]

That's a Top Gear Special I'd watch.

[Giggles]

From my uncle who runs a company that looks after older people post surgery:

>We just letter from NHS because we look after some NHS patients and if your 65 to70 do t bother calling 999 since no ambulance will come !!we are suppose to nurse them at home but we dont have any protective equipment! So they will be left to die<

>I'm not sure what we will do but we cant really ask carers to go in apart from anything else we wouldn't be insured so I guess we will just keep dialling 999 ??<

>Have spent the last 4 days calling various nhs people , public health england social services etc and no one has any personal protective equipment .... despite what you hear from the government<

My mate who’s cousin’s ex girlfriends sisters husband said they’re burying people at the side of the road if they even cough.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I saw a copper chucking people off the beach an hour or so ago. They were all just sitting there spaced well apart, and there he was going from pair to pair telling them to get back on the busy promenade with all the runners and moochers and dickhead cyclists who suddenly don't want to use the roads now that they're empty.

Trust me, they want to use the roads. The commute to work at the moment is like trying to lap hundreds of lower class cars at Le Mans.

[Kikó]

My mate who’s cousin’s ex girlfriends sisters husband said they’re burying people at the side of the road if they even cough.

Yeah, literally 4th hand stuff here :rolleyes:

[Giggles]

It just read very Facebook, not doubting your sources though. It’s just when you’ve read 50 different things like this in the past week they lose all meaning.


Still though, :rolleyes:. Because.

[Kikó]

I mean he runs a health care company and it's directly from him so again, I'm not going to send you shite on facegram.

[ScousePig]

No one has any PPE? He can't have asked many people.

[Boydy]

Do they ask your age if you call 999?

[Kikó]

I'm going to call my uncle a lying nonce and be done with it.

[Waffdon]

Check the state of them horrible Premier League footballers doing nothing.

[Lewis]

Stay at Home. Defend the Footballers. Save Lives.

[Waffdon]

The most important people after all.

[mugbull]

Didn’t Kiko’s sources also say bojo was on a ventilator last night

[Offshore Toon]

The sooner we ban Kiko the better.

[Boydy]

1248001650993688576

Why are they acting surprised lockdown isn't going to end already?

Ffs.