Coronavirus Death Thread

[Yevrah]

Well, to answer the question, there's no way to know if they wouldn't have died in that time period anyway I don't suppose, but equally I think it's fair that if they've tested positive and they're dead within 2 weeks to include them.

[Yevrah]

I can confirm that new applications to Team Panic are now CLOSED.

I'm ramping up the PANIC by building a spreadsheet.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

I'm back from my trip, with some observations:

Firstly, I got everything I wanted, bar the toilet roll. When I saw there wasn't any I wasn't going to bother with anything, but then it hit me, if I catch this cunt then I'm potentially not going to be able to leave the house for anything from 2 weeks+ without the risk of infecting others - I know the government want me to do that, but I'd rather not and even if I could guarantee I won't am I really going to want to get out if I'm feeling fucking awful. So back in I went perusing all the isles with one of the smaller trolleys. They were restocking furiously, so this meant much of what I wanted was available, albeit not some of the usual brands.

While toilet roll and eggs (no, I don't know either) were all gone, Nurofen was back on the shelves and I was also able to get some pasta, chopped tomatoes and all the tinned goods. There was one brand of pasta that was strangely still all there. Thinking it must be coeliac shit to start with, I initially dismissed it, but then the words MADE IN ITALY jumped out at me and that explained that. Picked 5 bags up (the max I could as per their polite request) and this theme repeated elsewhere. Chopped tomatoes. Pesto. Anything with made in Italy on the front is untouched.

After doing a few circuits I ended up with a trolley full of stuff that eventually amounted to just under £200, but that included toiletries, and household products. Up to this point it had been plain sailing, the place was reasonably dead and easy to navigate, bar the shop floor lads who were moving cages and unpacking them at an impressive rate. Then I got to the counter and as all the actual tills were closed I had to use a self service one, which for that much shopping was a right fucking ball ache. The technology on these things is now so outdated they make the McDonald's touch screen machines (before they patched them) look good.

I know some of you may think that much stuff is excessive, but I don't consider it stockpiling. I've just bought some non-perishable items, 2-4 week's worth, that will comfortably see me through should I catch it and be ill at home on my own. My Mum is in her mid 60s now so there will come a time in the not too distant future where I'd rather she didn't leave the house for a bit and most of my other friends and relatives round here have kids and I don't want to burden them with helping me unless I'm seriously ill. This food will be kept only to be eaten if and when I catch it and I'd suggest anyone living on their own do likewise.

Actual stockpiling may come later, depending on how it develops in other countries that are ahead of us in the spread of this fucker.

:D

Might have a gander at the local Co-op tonight and see if it's the same story. Up here doesn't seem to have been too bad so far.

[The Merse]

taking on board the point Yev made about isolating, I just went onto Ocado to do a good 2 week essentials list and found they're completely down, whilst Asda's next delivery date is the 25th, ffs.

[Raoul Duke]

I have an order placed with Tesco that I did earlier in the week - earliest slot was Monday evening. I then spotted they'd sold out of loads of the stuff I ordered and not told me. Idiots :moop:

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

Seems like we're keeping our heads so far. Co-op was short on dried pasta and potatoes but that was about it to be fair.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Eggs is a strange one. In peacetime I always had some in but I've abandoned them now. I'm not sure they really achieve anything.

[The Merse]

A Spanish friend has his family staying over at his place this weekend. The idiot.

[Foe]

My uncle who’s lived in Texas for a good 17 years was supposed to be over in a couple of weeks. However, good thing he didn’t as he wouldn’t be able to get back as he’s not a us citizen.

Going to be a few lost individuals with all this closed borders.

[Shindig]

He would've been able to get back as a US resident, probably.

[Yevrah]

When I was unpacking my food last night I left the damn freezer door open. The bread's ok, but I now have 8 Chicago Town pizzas that have been kept at fridge temperature for over 12 hours.

Anyone done something as dumb as that, refrozen and eaten them and lived to tell the tale?

[phonics]

I tried to cook an unfrozen one, it worked like i'd just put a lump of cheese in the oven.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Jesus, I nearly died of respiratory failure laughing at that.

[Yevrah]

I might phone 111 and ask them.

[Kikó]

When I was unpacking my food last night I left the damn freezer door open. The bread's ok, but I now have 8 Chicago Town pizzas that have been kept at fridge temperature for over 12 hours.

Anyone done something as dumb as that, refrozen and eaten them and lived to tell the tale?

😂

The UK herd immunity thing is complete pseudo science bollocks. It's going to fuck loads of us. My family are going to be fucked.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Their logic is logic (just as all logic is logic) but the frustration is that they simply refuse to explain why their approach is different to every other nation and appeal to 'the science'.

La France is now in lockdown, for example.

[Yevrah]

😂

The UK herd immunity thing is complete pseudo science bollocks. It's going to fuck loads of us. My family are going to be fucked.

This is the danger of morons (who genuinely think they're intelligent) blindly following experts. They absolutely need to be listened to, but then serious questions as to why they believe what they do and how they've modelled that need to be asked and answered.

[Spikey M]

Cook them up Yev. Pizza for breakfast lunch and dinner for the next few days.

[Yevrah]

Their logic is logic (just as all logic is logic) but the frustration is that they simply refuse to explain why their approach is different to every other nation and appeal to 'the science'.

It's like a cult.

France have now locked down everything, presumably across the entire country. If you're not buying food or seeking medical help, that's it. Stay at home.

[Kikó]

I think if they explained it or at least offered some leadership I could get behind it. But so far it's fucking about, giving us duff information (sporting events are fine.. Oh wait no they're not) and hoping we don't all kill the hospitals. Nothings changed bar individual businesses now forcing people home.

[Yevrah]

Germany, who our approach was likened to (and really should have more deaths by now given the number of cases) have done similar.


Germany has reported 733 more cases - the national total now stands at 3,795, with eight deaths. Berlin has banned on all public and private events with more than 50 participants and forced the closure of all bars, cinemas, clubs, gyms, betting halls and brothels. Similar bans are expected in the western city of Cologne on Sunday

With another day or deaths and more cases to come tomorrow, I suspect the FTSE may absolutely tank on Monday.

[Yevrah]

Cook them up Yev. Pizza for breakfast lunch and dinner for the next few days.

I've put them back in the freezer. That may be a mistake.

[niko_cee]

I'm pretty sure the whole refreezing thing is largely a myth (or of a bygone age at least) but lol if some sort of self-inflicted food poisoning sinks you instead of THE VIRUS.

As to my earlier death apportionment question, I think it's incumbent on TEAM PANIC to come up with some sort of fair system - I nominate Jimmy as he can use his baseball knowledge to cook up something like they way they work out wins for pitchers.

[Yevrah]

I think if they explained it or at least offered some leadership I could get behind it. But so far it's fucking about, giving us duff information (sporting events are fine.. Oh wait no they're not) and hoping we don't all kill the hospitals. Nothings changed bar individual businesses now forcing people home.

But they can't explain it. If they came out and said the measures we are imposing will lead to 750,000 deaths over the next 12-18 months, but that will be less than other countries will experience in the longer term, nobody would listen to the second bit and the country would implode. They'd also be inviting a diplomatic nightmare by essentially saying all of the other countries are wrong and their approach is more dangerous.

They also haven't reneged on the sporting events policy and they're not stopping them because they're arsed about the spread, more the burden it places on the emergency services.

[Kikó]

I'm going to chuck some money at Barclays if the markets fall again. Could be dangerous though as this seems pretty seismic.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Since Wednesday I have (in the politest and most respectful possible manner) been trying to convince my mate and his girlfriend not to go skiing in France on Sunday. He has just been giving it the oh I'm sure it's not that bad. As of this afternoon he was still going. I'm not going to bug him any more, but I really fucking hope he isn't now.

[niko_cee]

Aren't all the ski resorts shut already?

[Kikó]

But they can't explain it. If they came out and said the measures we are imposing will lead to 750,000 deaths over the next 12-18 months, but that will be less than other countries will experience in the longer term, nobody would listen to the second bit and the country would implode. They'd also be inviting a diplomatic nightmare by essentially saying all of the other countries are wrong and their approach is more dangerous.

They also haven't reneged on the sporting events policy and they're not stopping them because they're arsed about the spread, more the burden it places on the emergency services.

I mean there's also nothing to suggest their approach is going to work - immunising against the flu or common cold hasn't happened yet despite it being with us for centuries. It's a massive massive risk on us all.

[Yevrah]

I'm going to chuck some money at Barclays if the markets fall again. Could be dangerous though as this seems pretty seismic.

The thing that's putting me off is similar. I don't know how long things will last, I don't know how dependent the FTSE is on the global markets vs. its own (and if other countries start to show recovery, even a false one what happens) and if things really do get that bad I'd rather have access to a reasonable amount of money than it be tied up in shares that have further sunk and are at that moment in time worth x% of what I paid for them.

[Boydy]

1238914154129432583

[Yevrah]

I mean there's also nothing to suggest their approach is going to work - immunising against the flu or common cold hasn't happened yet despite it being with us for centuries. It's a massive massive risk on us all.

That's a very fair point.

I also don't understand what happens with immunity if this strains off (aren't there two strains of it already) and what of the vaccine? What's the point in letting, nay encouraging, x% more people to die if a cure could be with us in 12 months.

Journalists instead are choosing to ask the same run of the mill shit that's been drilled into them all their lives.

[Boydy]

Since Wednesday I have (in the politest and most respectful possible manner) been trying to convince my mate and his girlfriend not to go skiing in France on Sunday. He has just been giving it the oh I'm sure it's not that bad. As of this afternoon he was still going. I'm not going to bug him any more, but I really fucking hope he isn't now.

My mate's currently in Paris as he had tickets for the France v Ireland game and went anyway even when the game was called off. Someone else going with him had to pull out a couple of weeks ago and he offered me the spot but I turned it down. Very glad I did now.

[Boydy]

That's a very fair point.

I also don't understand what happens with immunity if this strains off (aren't there two strains of it already) and what of the vaccine? What's the point in letting, nay encouraging, x% more people to die if a cure could be with us in 12 months.

Journalists instead are choosing to ask the same run of the mill shit that's been drilled into them all their lives.

The British press are fucking awful.

[Yevrah]

Since Wednesday I have (in the politest and most respectful possible manner) been trying to convince my mate and his girlfriend not to go skiing in France on Sunday. He has just been giving it the oh I'm sure it's not that bad. As of this afternoon he was still going. I'm not going to bug him any more, but I really fucking hope he isn't now.

People don't want to listen and they don't like the advice.

My best mate has two parents still with him who're in their mid 70s, otherwise reasonably healthy, but they run a shop in the city centre. They've got enough access to funds to board themselves in until they die naturally, so if it were me I'd be telling them to shut up shop and knuckle down with Netflix and some tipples for a while, but based on the other discussions we've had about this* I don't even know how to broach the subject with him as I know what the response will be.

*Discussions like, parroting the words the government have used, complete with all the holes, essentially:

1. Shut nothing down
2. Carry on spreading it
3. ?????
4. Peak is suppressed

[Gray Fox]

Liverpool Uni has DEFIED Boris and closed up for the rest of the academic year. Now we wait and see.

[Yevrah]

The point I'd add about travel is that if we're going to continue on this approach, it really doesn't matter. In fact, you're safer from it if you're wandering around a locked down town abroad than going out to work and the pub here.

[CJay]

How is Ant & Dec’s terrible show allowed to be on tonight? You’d have to be an idiot to be going to that. It’s also the type of show twats who aren’t feeling well would go along to anyway.

[Yevrah]

1238914154129432583

I joked about burying granny in the garden, but people are genuinely going to be dying at home, aren't they.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

I joked about burying granny in the garden, but people are genuinely going to be dying at home, aren't they.

My old man has COPD and cancer so he really can't afford to get it or that's it. However, ironically enough, the COPD means he stays in the house the vast majority of the time.

[Yevrah]

This is worse than I thought. The dropbox link from Boyd's tweet explains the logic.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/d5jqdmsxgwrjz6v/ICU_beds.pdf?dl=0

There could well be 20-40 year olds dying from respiratory failure through lack of beds to treat what would otherwise be treatable, thousands of them.

[Shindig]

Are there two strains? All the academic stuff talks of it in relation to SARS which, as far as we know, isn't active.

[Kikó]

I doubt it's 20 year olds. The 40 year olds though...

[Baz]

I’m glad this herd immunity approach is being hailed as bullshit already.

It’s such a moronic idea, it’s like a bad movie plot.

[Yevrah]

I doubt it's 20 year olds. The 40 year olds though...

It's 2% of 20-40 year olds that need ICU treatment based on China's numbers, which presumably starts below that for 20 year olds and tapers upwards the older you get.

[Lee]

The government’s approach might be right. We don’t know. What we can be sure of is the boffins will be advising in good faith and on the basis of solid science. What isn’t right is the rush to criticise if people challenge why we’re so out of step with everybody else, and the lack of transparency about the evidence base. Just share the modelling and the inputs. Good science is peer-reviewed science.

I don’t actually believe the aim of the government is to kill a load of old folk to achieve herd immunity. Some modeller chap working on all of this tweeted an interesting thread on it earlier and vented his frustration at the reporting. The problem is herd immunity is emotive, creates headlines and creates debate for new channels. We need to see an explanation from the government and so far it’s their messaging prompting the reporting. If they’re fine with younger people getting it because we won’t die, fine. But where’s the sense in saying we can get on with our lives normally if it isn’t accompanied by advice to lock granny away for a bit?

Given the numbers we now surely know are coming our way, and the policies we’re seeing enacted by almost all our neighbours, we really ought to be at the point of daily PM (flanked by the experts) statements explaining in layman’s terms what the current numbers are, how they inform the government’s position, and how they relate to the actions we can expect to see in the coming days.

I’d like to see an explanation as to why we don’t just do what other European countries are doing now. In the first couple if northern Italian towns to have been locked down they have really slowed the rate of new infections. Zero the last two or three days, I think. In which case we ought the be watching very closely what happens when they open up again.

I understand the fear of a second wave and that fear might be legitimate. Wave 2 was more deadly during the Spanish Flu pandemic. But, surely we can lock places down, open up small elements of social activity one by one once growth dies off, test the fuck out of everybody emerging with so much as a sniffle (using lockdown to ramp up testing capacity) and isolate whichever individuals test positive. Maybe not. But nobody is telling us why.

EDIT: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

What Peston seems to think is coming.

[Yevrah]

Keeping the old away, while the young uns share it amongst themselves seems to fit right in with the theory of what they're doing. I don't think they want to actively kill old people either, just that they appreciate that in all likelihood it's a necessary evil of this approach that a lot of them will die.

[Boydy]

Were there second or third waves of SARS? Was lockdown not pretty effective at containing it?

Genuine question, I don't know.

[Yevrah]

The government’s approach might be right. We don’t know. What we can be sure of is the boffins will be advising in good faith and on the basis of solid science.

I know you go on to elaborate a bit on this, but this bit for me is the crux. It can't be based on solid science, or if it is, everyone else's science is wrong. So someone is not using solid science.

Agree entirely on the comms bit. He needs to be addressing the country personally, every single day.

[Yevrah]

Were there second or third waves of SARS? Was lockdown not pretty effective at containing it?

Genuine question, I don't know.

Seemingly not having just looked. It only lasted for 7/8 months with minimal cases after that. Only covered 17 countries though, so a tiddler compared to this.

[Shindig]

SARS didn't transmit as freely as this.

[Lee]

I know you go on to elaborate a bit on this, but this bit for me is the crux. It can't be based on solid science, or if it is, everyone else's science is wrong. So someone is not using solid science.

Agree entirely on the comms bit. He needs to be addressing the country personally, every single day.

Well it will be solid in that it will be evidence based. We don’t get to find out which evidence base we can eliminate as shit science for this particular type of outbreak for ages yet. Such is the nature of science.

[Yevrah]

The prime minister's adviser, Dominic Cummings, has also initiated conversations with Uber and Deliveroo about taking food to the old and vulnerable when they are put into forced isolation.

That also made me laugh. "You want me to do fucking what Boris?"

[Kikó]

https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1238913213250572288?s=20

The under 60s aren't safe.

[Yevrah]

Well it will be solid in that it will be evidence based. We don’t get to find out which evidence base we can eliminate as shit science for this particular type of outbreak for ages yet. Such is the nature of science.

So all science is good science and must be listened to and followed until it's demonstrably proven to be bad science.

It's this sort of wank that gives experts a bad name.

[Lewis]

If you lock everything down you have absolutely no chance of just slowly turning everything back onto normal over a further x amount of months. Right, the virus is fucking off. You can go back to work, but don't go on the bus. And we can dribble a few sporting events back on, but I wouldn't watch them in pubs if I were you... Once enacted it effectively becomes an all or nothing measure. People will just hear 'the virus is fucking off' and go back to behaving in ways that are liable to spread it back round, and they will have spent three months inside wanking with no sort of immunity to it ('herd immunity' doesn't mean it bounces off your face - it means reducing it to the virility of a common cold).

[Yevrah]

https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1238913213250572288?s=20

The under 60s aren't safe.

It's smoking isn't it.

I've stopped now, but did for ages and I vape (which I don't really trust either). With the government's approach, this might actually get me.

[randomlegend]

My hospital has confirmed cases now, so I guess I'll be 'winning' the first TTHer to catch it award.

[Yevrah]

Yeldoow's already got it by the looks of things last night.

[Lee]

So all science is good science and must be listened to and followed until it's demonstrably proven to be bad science.

It's this sort of wank that gives experts a bad name.

No. The point is that nobody from any country is just making this up based on their own crackpot theories. There will be a basis to it. Science is based on observation and experimentation. You test things and eliminate stuff. The problem we have in the UK is that we haven’t had that evidence base shared with us. Whereas elsewhere it’s obvious - let’s copy China as far as we can get away with in a liberal democracy. I’m not saying ‘they’re scientists so they must be right’. I’m saying Whitty and Co aren’t heading into No.10 having never done any research and saying ‘let’s just have a crack at this, Boris’.

We simply won’t know for months who has this right. We don’t know if there will be a second wave. If there is we don’t know if it will look like there isn’t because Italy opens back up in the summer and it doesn’t transmit, only to kill everybody in November. We know fuck all, because it’s new, other than that shutting down stops it in the short term. Because of course it does. Uncomfortable as it might be, we are in the midst of a global experiment with lives on the line. Our experts will be acutely aware of that. They’ll be doing what their evidence tells them will work rather than copying others for the sake of it. Firstly, I hope they’re right. But secondly and probably more importantly, I hope they’re flexible that if Italy opens up and infections don’t spike again to change direction.

Anyway, I quite liked this explanation of what they’re up to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzCi8

[Shindig]

The wikipedia page seems to attribute herd immunity as a factor of eliminating smallpox. They also talk a lot about how herd immunity is used in conjunction with vaccination.

[Lee]

My hospital has confirmed cases now, so I guess I'll be 'winning' the first TTHer to catch it award.

Have your lot stopped visiting yet and done stuff with wards/ICU?

[Yevrah]

I'm not saying people are making things up Lee, I'm sure the things that are concrete in this area are universally concrete and understood, but not everything can be evidence based, there have to be assumptions. We know there are, our government scientists told us many (one being people will get bored staying inside if we ask them to now). And it's those assumptions that are key, and ours are very different to the rest of the world. For me they form part of the science, maybe they don't for you and that's the distinction in where we veer off.

[Lee]

I'm not saying people are making things up Lee, I'm sure the things that are concrete in this area are universally concrete and understood, but not everything can be evidence based, there have to be assumptions. We know there are, our government scientists told us many (one being people will get bored staying inside if we ask them to now). And it's those assumptions that are key, and ours are very different to the rest of the world. For me they form part of the science, maybe they don't for you and that's the distinction in where we veer off.

I agree that what is happening elsewhere is part of the science. It can’t not be. I have to assume that whatever is making us different is compelling to our lot. I’m not at all certain that we are right and nobody else is. The government really need to be transparent with the evidence so it can be interrogated and challenged properly.

[Yevrah]

And that video sums up what I'm saying perfectly. "One shot at the quarantine phase" is a huge assumption.

And as the tweet before that Jim posted perfectly summed up, there are so many assumptions in this approach, with a seeming starting point of not even knowing how many people are actually infected and where they are, while they're all still moving. If you don't know that, how can you possibly control the flow from the bucket?

[niko_cee]

You can't, but don't you just kick quarantine in when things look like they're about to get stretched/critical in the health system?

I agree 'one shot at quarantine' sounds a bit :cab: - maybe it means if you do it this way you have to do the quarantine right once, albeit very right, and if you go the other way you have to do about X quarantines (however many that may be) and can maybe get them less right, but both ways essentially push the whole population through the virus mincer?

[Shindig]

My worry with quarantine (at least from China, Italy and ... presumably France) is that mortality spikes in the wake of it. You do get a chance to slow things down but it's after a lot of collateral.

[randomlegend]

Have your lot stopped visiting yet and done stuff with wards/ICU?

I've not been in over the weekend and I'm also on paeds so we're a bit isolated from the main hospital. I know nearby hospitals stopped visiting today, not sure if we have yet. There's definitely been clean and dirty wards being set up.

[Yevrah]

You can't, but don't you just kick quarantine in when things look like they're about to get stretched/critical in the health system?

But given the lead time in contracting it and getting seriously ill from it, how will you know when they're about to get stretched? It's another assumption and one I can't see (but would love to know the basis for) how it works. Mis-time that at all and the quarantine is too late and you're going to have a fuck ton of people who need medical help.

There must be a model somewhere that says if we keep people fully integrated for this long then x % will get it and we can cope with that. But that model is a forecast (essentially a huge part of what I do for a living) and the one thing that's bloody obvious about forecasts is that they're wrong as soon as they're submitted and it's all about how wrong.

[Spikey M]

My worry with quarantine (at least from China, Italy and ... presumably France) is that mortality spikes in the wake of it. You do get a chance to slow things down but it's after a lot of collateral.

The mortality would spike anyway.

[Yevrah]

My worry with quarantine (at least from China, Italy and ... presumably France) is that mortality spikes in the wake of it.

How do you mean? As a percentage because fewer people are contracting it?

[Lee]

My worry with quarantine (at least from China, Italy and ... presumably France) is that mortality spikes in the wake of it. You do get a chance to slow things down but it's after a lot of collateral.

It can take a fair while to kill you. 2-3 weeks. So there will be a period through which deaths from legacy cases continue to mount whilst new infections slow down. Spain, for instance, is seeing a fuckton of new daily cases which will result in a big spike in deaths in 2-3 weeks time. Also at around that point they ought to see the impact of lockdown on new cases.

[Shindig]

Yeah, I wasn't thinking that through. I see numbers, I react.

[randomlegend]

A doctor friend has been put on indefinite paid leave because she's on immunosuppressants.

[Yevrah]

Another thing about the government approach that's incongruous is the hand washing. Thinking about it, wouldn't they rather healthy and young people didn't wash their hands?

EDIT: Or at least a certain percentage at any one time didn't.

[Bernanke]

1238913213250572288

It's the smoking isn't it.

[niko_cee]

They probably figure the virus will spread itself at a decent enough rate no matter what preventative measures (short of quarantine/lcokdown) you attempt.

Also, the boon in personal hygiene is probably stopping the spread of loads of other shit the filthy, largely male, population previously tended towards, which could be a trend for the better both in the short and long term.

[Yevrah]

Only just seen this, but 229 scientists around the UK have felt strongly enough to sign an open letter disagreeing with the government's action:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402


As scientists living and working in the UK, we would like to express our concernabout the course of action announced by the Government on 12th March 2020 regarding the Coronavirus outbreak.

In particular, we are deeply preoccupied by the timeline of the proposed plan, which aims at delaying social distancing
measures even further.

The current data about the number of infections in the UK is in line with the growth curves already observed in other countries, including Italy, Spain, France,
and Germany. The same data suggests that the number of infected will be in the order of dozens of thousands within a few days.

Under unconstrained growth, this outbreak will affect millions of people in the next few weeks. This will most probably put the NHS at serious risk of not being able to cope with the flow of patients needing intensive care, as the number
of ICU beds in the UK is not larger than that available in other neighbouring countries with a similar population. Going for “herd immunity” at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of
stress, risking many more lives than necessary.

By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared. We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world.

We urge anyone who has sympathy with our views, and access to the government strategy group, to make our concerns more widely known.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The problem they have is that fuck knows which blend of the science is right, but their approach makes people feel unsafe and/or like lab rats.

[Lewis]

They're mostly from unrelated fields, so fuck knows why the dickhead BBC and Sky are reporting them as 'scientists' as if their opinions carry equal weight to the people behind the policies in question.

[Lofty]

Who would have thought BoltonMassiv was a trailblazer with self isolation.

[Shindig]

I don't think I like Lewis when he's drunk on immunity.

[Lewis]

https://i.imgur.com/tj6pVqg.jpg

[Pepe]

Scientists is a meaningless term.

[Lewis]

In my job I'm classed as a 'subject matter expert', so feel free to quote my bollocks to your family and friends as coming from a 'government expert'.

[Yevrah]

Trump hasn't got it.

[SincereTheRebel]

Even if he did, it shouldn't be reported given his position. He cant be weak out here

[Mellberg]

He's already weak. The AMERICA, FUCK YEAH approach may 'work' due to herd immunity, but at least Boris has had a go at being contrite and explaining the situation, to an extent. Trump's just lying and will likely be held accountable for X amount of US deaths.

I started smoking again over the winter. Well done, Mellin.

[Mike]

Woke up with a cold, so I’ve deffo got it. See ya lads!
Good news, feel fine today, first TTH full recovery! :cool2:

[Raoul Duke]

Trump getting croaked by this would be the dream scenario. It's still all to play for.

[Spikey M]

Boris' Dad dropping would be top tier stuff.

[niko_cee]

Isolating the elderly (so probably reducing their general social isolation for at least half of them) does seem a more sensible way to go about 'managing' this than just shutting down society and surely, of any group, they are the most likely to listen to what they are told to do? I wonder why it isn't done asap - do we still need to push a percentage of them through the mincer for 'the model' to work?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Because they'll get lonely.

Just need to load up the TV schedule with 60s and 70s sitcoms and they'll be right as rain.

[Giggles]

Britain seem to be the only country clinging on for dear life to politics when it comes to general attitudes to all this. Forget them for now.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They've had a PR shocker but I think behind the scenes the processes are actually fine.

[Shindig]

Yeah, they've been criticised they're putting the at-risks at ... err... risk so they're attempting to mitigate it.

[Magic]

Bloody hell it was RAMMED last night in the pubs.

[Kikó]

Just get it approach may need to be questioned.

https://twitter.com/narrowthefield/status/1238969032528855041?s=21

[Magic]

Just get it approach may need to be questioned.

https://twitter.com/narrowthefield/status/1238969032528855041?s=21

And yet there are tens of thousands who have it with no symptoms.

[Spikey M]

Just get it approach may need to be questioned.

https://twitter.com/narrowthefield/status/1238969032528855041?s=21

Just sounds like Flu.

[Manc]

The group very much on the ropes.

[Giggles]

Same cunts will be posting tears and blaming the government when they're burying parents or grandparents in a few weeks. Twats.


1238893141341724673

[Lewis]

In the Manly vs Melbourne match they were disinfecting the ball when it came back out of the crowd. That's the level of seriousness we ought to be aiming for. #governmentexpert

[niko_cee]

Just seen the result. Cancel the season.

[Lewis]

This wheeze to stick all sixteen teams in a resort somewhere and play the games out in quarantine demands round-the-clock coverage.

[Lofty]

Taz must be like a pig in shit with all this toilet paper bollocks.

[mo]

Looks like schools will become creches for parents who work in the emergency services. Aces. Wonder how they'll decide on who gets to be skeleton staff.

[Lewis]

If reduced supervision is on the cards then that rules you out.

[Giggles]

Videos like the one above prompted Lord Vradkar to sort of threaten legislation forcing the closure of pubs and restaurants but I see piles of them announcing today that they’re closing up anyway for 2 weeks to start.

[Pepe]

Lol at France SHUTTING DOWN EVERYTHING but still running elections today.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Team Panic visited the local small Sainsbury's this morning to collect data and it really is surprising how the hive operates. Pasta completely gone; rice gone except for risotto rice (can they not read?), and noodles/couscous completely untouched.

Working class frozen foods also untouched. However, there was a woman who had based herself in the middle of the shop with three baskets (no trolleys at this joint) and was operating on a kind of mission basis. Off to the canned goods, gather ten to twelve cans of whatever, back to base to dump them. Then off to get four pies, and back again. I didn't stay to see her complete the operation.

[Spikey M]

No online shopping slots for the next 2 weeks. People are such cunts.

[Andy]

I haven't been to a big supermarket for months. We get a HelloFresg delivery each week and a separate order of meat every 4-6 weeks. Then we get the odd fresh and dry goods from our local coop.

I went to the coop this morning and they had everything apart from Eggs and low on Pasta. Yesterday I popped into Icelands for a quick snack as I was working and again they had everything in.

I have probably got enough food to last a month at all times so never any need to do a big stock up shop like some have been.

Just bizarre the things people are buying in bulk, I read on twitter yesterday about a lady who had 25kg of four in her trolley and a load of yeast

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm surprised that your Iceland wasn't a barren wasteland. Don't the dregs of society love it?

[Gray Fox]

If the object of their shops is to buy all of the toilet roll, pasta and rice, then Iceland will be the last place they think of.

[Jimmy Floyd]

When we all get made redundnat from our jobs in the next few weeks we can start working for Tesco delivery. Supply and demand.

[Shindig]

The civil service stops for nothing (except weekends and bank holidays).

[Lewis]

Iceland is quality.

[Waffdon]

I was out last night with someone who’s just back from Madrid who was coughing all night and someone who’s missus works at the hospital and is in self isolation.

I will report back on my symptoms in due course

[Mellberg]

Honestly, what's the eggs thing all about? They only stay in date for, what, 3 weeks?

[-james-]

When we all get made redundnat from our jobs in the next few weeks we can start working for Tesco delivery. Supply and demand.

I didn't expect the gambling gravy train to last forever, but I definitely didn't anticipate bat flu being the nail in the coffin.

At this stage I've just got everything crossed that Eurovision goes ahead.

[Boydy]

Honestly, what's the eggs thing all about? They only stay in date for, what, 3 weeks?

Would they keep longer in the fridge? Baking?

[mugbull]

I was out last night with someone who’s just back from Madrid who was coughing all night and someone who’s missus works at the hospital and is in self isolation.

I will report back on my symptoms in due course

Why did you go out with him lol

[mugbull]

Would they keep longer in the fridge? Baking?

What do you mean 'would they keep longer in the fridge'? Where do you usually keep your eggs?

[Disco]

On the side next to the bread, they don't need to be refrigerated.

[Boydy]

What do you mean 'would they keep longer in the fridge'? Where do you usually keep your eggs?

In the cupboard, they don't need to be in the fridge. Although I read something before saying American eggs do so there's a difference there.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Im my experience eggs go a bit beyond their date (in the fridge), but I just don't know why they would be that useful in a stockpiling scenario. They break, and only fill you up so much.

[Boydy]

No online shopping slots for the next 2 weeks. People are such cunts.

Sainsbury's has nothing for 3 weeks here. Not sure about Tesco. Iceland deliver though and have slots this week. Try them. People seem to have forgotten about them.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

In the cupboard, they don't need to be in the fridge. Although I read something before saying American eggs do so there's a difference there.

It's because in America they wash the eggs which takes off a protective coating around the eggs which stops bacteria from getting inside.

[mugbull]

In the cupboard, they don't need to be in the fridge. Although I read something before saying American eggs do so there's a difference there.

I always love the cultural cross-pollination on here, I never would have known there are people who put eggs in their pantry. In Czech Republic eggs also go in the fridge.

[Bernanke]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETFRQF1XsAAp3Yp.jpg

Good luck with the herd immunity strat. :eyemouth:

[Disco]

Once you've fridged them you shouldn't un-fridge them, they'll probably last longer in the fridge but I keep mine for weeks sometimes and they're fine.

[Spikey M]

They're sold from shelves but we still keep ours in the fridge.

[Disco]

They're sold from shelves but we still keep ours in the fridge.

They aren't refrigerated anywhere in the supply chain either, mainly so people can fridge them at home if they want.

[niko_cee]

Makes me feel better about our 7 critical care beds for 65,000 people.

I'm pretty sure that stat derives from a bit of a false premise though - I saw something similar designed to have the UK towards the bottom of the stats and the only developed nations that were worse were Sweden and Canada, which seemed a bit off seeing as they are generally seen as models of progressive society.

[Giggles]

Seen a few shared videos (you know yourself, though different sources with same story) that we’re going on full lockdown from Tuesday morning. No pubs, no shops, no public transport, no leaving the house.

[John Arne]

America, lol. 5,000 cramped in a small space :/

1239102590719332354

[Jimmy Floyd]

Seen a few shared videos (you know yourself, though different sources with same story) that we’re going on full lockdown from Tuesday morning. No pubs, no shops, no public transport, no leaving the house.

Some shops will have to stay open won't they? When I watched the French minister's speech I'm sure he said supermarkets and tobacconists would remain open. They're running public transport as well, as is Italy I think.

[Shindig]

That's how we should be creating the herd, to be honest.

[Yevrah]

Seen a few shared videos (you know yourself, though different sources with same story) that we’re going on full lockdown from Tuesday morning. No pubs, no shops, no public transport, no leaving the house.

What about work?

[ScousePig]

Looks like schools will become creches for parents who work in the emergency services. Aces. Wonder how they'll decide on who gets to be skeleton staff.

The only fair method is to use the snow method: those who live farthest away don't bother coming in. More seriously though, my HLTA practically lives in school because she's bored at home.

[Yevrah]

The government don't help themselves by saying the goal is to protect life, when it manifestly isn't perceived to be. At least not in the short term.

[Giggles]

What about work?

None.

[ScousePig]

The government don't help themselves by saying the goal is to protect life, when it manifestly isn't perceived to be. At least not in the short term.

But we'll be mostly still alive and fine in several months and everyone else will be dying off. Right?

[Jimmy Floyd]

My first thought as to what the long term social effects of this might be are that no one will smoke or vape ever again.

[Boydy]

randomlegend does your advice on the pneumococcal vaccine still stand? I told my parents to try to get it.

[phonics]

lol.

People have gone fucking mental. I saw someone saying this was 'on the scale of 9/11' the other day. Everyone trying to outdo each other with their hyperbole.

[Yevrah]

But we'll be mostly still alive and fine in several months and everyone else will be dying off. Right?

Supposedly. If the plan does work and backfires everywhere else, we'll be in a position of strength not seen since the British Empire.

[mugbull]

My first thought as to what the long term social effects of this might be are that no one will smoke or vape ever again.

The one thing I'm hoarding for this quarantine is marijuana

[Yevrah]

lol.

People have gone fucking mental. I saw someone saying this was 'on the scale of 9/11' the other day. Everyone trying to outdo each other with their hyperbole.

It shits on 9/11 from a colossal height.

[Giggles]

Supposedly. If the plan does work and backfires everywhere else, we'll be in a position of strength not seen since the British Empire.

Get the sails up.

[Yevrah]

What I don't understand is that I thought China had started back up to some degree, manufacturing etc. and has been for some time. If so, why aren't we seeing a spike in cases again? Instead, they're posting single digits daily now, which presumably is just from the stragglers.

[Giggles]

They’re putting Garda decals on a load of cars they’ve got from the hire companies up at the docks all weekend.

[Bernanke]

What I don't understand is that I thought China had started back up to some degree, manufacturing etc. and has been for some time. If so, why aren't we seeing a spike in cases again? Instead, they're posting single digits daily now, which presumably is just from the stragglers.

It's because they are keeping an insane level of control on it and a very, very clear process for dealing with cases to a degree that I'm not sure a less totalitarian place could:

1238604080571772928

[niko_cee]

They've not been 'back-to-normal' for all that long either.

[Kikó]

Test and trace is obviously the only way to manage it at the moment. Which is why we're telling our old people to isolate..

.. In a few weeks.

[Yevrah]

Test and trace is obviously the only way to manage it at the moment. Which is why we're telling our old people to isolate..

.. In a few weeks.

And not testing either...

[Kikó]

I know we're not experts, we're yevrah, but the whole approach smells awful. Something is fundamentally wrong with what we're trying to do in the UK.

[Giggles]

https://www.thejournal.ie/pub-closure-temple-bar-5047010-Mar2020/

[Disco]

The one thing I'm hoarding for this quarantine is marijuana

Laying in longlife munchies is the real challenge.

[Serj]

Austria is going into almost full lockdown. People can only be on the street for 1. work that can't be postponed (interpretations of that are going to vary massively, I expect) , 2. Urgent shopping i.e. Foodstuffs and medicine 3. To help others.

Police will enforce this from tomorrow.

Let's hope the internet providers don't fuck this up or we'll riot.

[Boydy]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

I'm sure Lewis will say this is just The Guardian attacking the tories so here:


When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.

[Yevrah]

I'm assuming he fits everyone's criteria of an expert and a proper scientist and he speaks perfect sense.

[Boydy]

I'm assuming he fits everyone's criteria of an expert and a proper scientist and he speaks perfect sense.
This was probably the most worrying part for me:


About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future.

[Yevrah]

He highlights all the gaping holes in the plan perfectly.

Another 95 dead in Spain.

[Yevrah]

And tomorrow is going to be very interesting at work. I think a weekend of the entire world shutting down and us not will see a lot of people voluntarily self isolating with no symptoms. I can't say I blame them.

[John Arne]

I haven't seen this before, so I fired up Excel and we got a '% Deaths per Reported Cases'...

https://gyazo.com/d679ff1866f4b4f5088ed6e88dc1d35e.jpeg

That fatality range is spread....

[Lee]

This was probably the most worrying part for me:

That’s what worries me, too. This is a SARS thing, not a flu thing. There was no SARS second wave.

The Germans are closing borders. The Dutch have just shut all schools and universities and their PM is doing a national address tomorrow evening. This are hardly countries known for their lack of competence.

Our government needs to share the modelling and talk to us properly.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've decided to go in as I have no symptoms today and probably imagined the ones I 'had' before.

It might be the only day before everything shuts down. To be honest, I'm ok up here on my own. My whole life has effectively been spent preparing for this scenario. Extroverts and people who get restless I fear a bit for.

[Giggles]

I haven't seen this before, so I fired up Excel and we got a '% Deaths per Reported Cases'...

https://gyazo.com/d679ff1866f4b4f5088ed6e88dc1d35e.jpeg

That fatality range is spread....

No, the testing and reporting range is spread. Nobody has real numbers from anywhere.

[John Arne]

Meanwhile, Switzerland have shot up massively in the 'Cases/1m Pop' table, whilst Italy continue to lead by someway. The Liverpool of the Corona world, if you will.

https://gyazo.com/86940d5b1553d32daf240377f9b69247.jpeg

[Jimmy Floyd]

I haven't seen this before, so I fired up Excel and we got a '% Deaths per Reported Cases'...

https://gyazo.com/d679ff1866f4b4f5088ed6e88dc1d35e.jpeg

That fatality range is spread....

I read something very interesting on twitter about how Italy has been fucked by the high levels of intergenerational transmission, as they have the highest rates of multiple generations living together in the world. By this measure, if it is indeed relevant, the UK is better protected (as is France).

[Lee]

We’ve had 232 new cases here. That’s down a fair bit 35 deaths now.

EDIT: turns out we tested half as many people in the past 24 hours compared to the previous period.

[John Arne]

No, the testing and reporting range is spread. Nobody has real numbers from anywhere.

No shit. That why I used the word 'reported' on both columns.

[Giggles]

No shit. That why I used the word 'reported' on both columns.

Sorry, I thought Yev had posted it :D

[Shindig]

Something tells me I'll not be coming back to work in a fortnight. Even if this country's not on lockdown, we're certainly getting penned in.

[John Arne]

I read something very interesting on twitter about how Italy has been fucked by the high levels of intergenerational transmission, as they have the highest rates of multiple generations living together in the world. By this measure, if it is indeed relevant, the UK is better protected (as is France).

That makes sense. I would say the same applies to China, Vietnam and some other SEA, too. We got 34yr old women being told to come home by 9pm by their dad over here :/

There must be a reason for the Spain v Germany gap.... 3.75% v 0.2%

[Jimmy Floyd]

I know we're not experts, we're yevrah, but the whole approach smells awful. Something is fundamentally wrong with what we're trying to do in the UK.

The cornerstone of the whole thing seems to be that they don't think they will physically be able to lock the population down for as long as will be needed, so are trying to delay the start as long as they can.

No other nation seems concerned by this but we seem desperate to hinge the whole policy on it.

[Yevrah]

We’ve had 232 new cases here. That’s down a fair bit 35 deaths now.

Testing people unless they're ill in hospital isn't part of the strategy anymore though, is it? Our death rate is going to be obscene. The government need to be explaining that to people too.

[Giggles]

The only difference in figures is economics. They’re all fudged.

[Giggles]

The cornerstone of the whole thing seems to be that they don't think they will physically be able to lock the population down for as long as will be needed, so are trying to delay the start as long as they can.

No other nation seems concerned by this but we seem desperate to hinge the whole policy on it.

The need to be different from the rest of the EU is the policy.

[Lee]

That makes sense. I would say the same applies to China, Vietnam and some other SEA, too. We got 34yr old women being told to come home by 9pm by their dad over here :/

There must be a reason for the Spain v Germany gap.... 3.75% v 0.2%

Looks as though Germany has a shitload of ICU capacity, so everybody who has needed that level of treatment so far is getting it. The anecdotal stuff from ICU consultants is that they can get people better if they have space, people and kit.

EDIT: Also looks as though Germany is only counting is if it’s the direct cause of death, not if something else killed you and you just happened to have Covid.

[Yevrah]

The cornerstone of the whole thing seems to be that they don't think they will physically be able to lock the population down for as long as will be needed, so are trying to delay the start as long as they can.

No other nation seems concerned by this but we seem desperate to hinge the whole policy on it.

It's bonkers. People are increasingly worried and thousands have died, everywhere has closed/is closing, so if you told people to stay at home they would. That and the second wave are two assumptions that are so huge and are seemingly based on nothing. Have they actually confused this with a Flu pandemic? Did they test people getting bored and running around the streets licking everything on mice?

[Disco]

I've decided to go in as I have no symptoms today and probably imagined the ones I 'had' before.

It might be the only day before everything shuts down. To be honest, I'm ok up here on my own. My whole life has effectively been spent preparing for this scenario. Extroverts and people who get restless I fear a bit for.

No problem here with staying inside for a few weeks, that's essentially what I'd be doing if I had that time off in normal circumstances so it's really not that much of an imposition.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If I can't go out for walks or whatever I might have to develop some kind of indoor exercise regime. Maybe now is the time for fasting and tantric yoga.

Thank God I now have a balcony/terrace, so fresh air will be possible.

[thommo]

I genuinely don't think people would stay at home for long. The level of worry in the real world doesn't seem to be anywhere near the level on TTH - a woman in work jetted off to Poland for a holiday this week because it was so bloody cheap, the pubs and bars were still pretty busy last night judging from social media, and whenever I've popped out to the shops, there are dozens of old gits wandering around without a care in the world.

With that in mind, I can completely understand the logic behind holding back on telling the population to stay at home.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I genuinely don't think people would stay at home for long. The level of worry in the real world doesn't seem to be anywhere near the level on TTH - a woman in work jetted off to Poland for a holiday this week because it was so bloody cheap, the pubs and bars were still pretty busy last night judging from social media, and whenever I've popped out to the shops, there are dozens of old gits wandering around without a care in the world.

With that in mind, I can completely understand the logic behind holding back on telling the population to stay at home.

I assume she's back in the UK, if not she's going to have to wait a number of weeks.

[Jimmy Floyd]

We'll just have to see what happens in Italy etc once the lockdowns have been in place for a while.

[thommo]

I assume she's back in the UK, if not she's going to have to wait a number of weeks.

I'll find out tomorrow and report back.

[Lee]

We'll just have to see what happens in Italy etc once the lockdowns have been in place for a while.

We already know that in some of the first towns locked down they’re reduced the rate of infection, in at least one case to zero. The question is, what happens when they’re all let out again.

[Disco]

I shall be off to work tomorrow and I'm yet to encounter anyone aside from people on here who have expressed more than passing concern. I guess we're about to find out who's right.

[Spikey M]

No, the testing and reporting range is spread. Nobody has real numbers from anywhere.

The actual mortality rate will be well below 1%. This shit is rife and has been for some time. They're only finding out about the extreme cases.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Consensus is it's 1% or less until you get into a situation where there aren't enough ventilators, and that's when it gets higher.

The only thing we're really waiting for with the numbers is if or when Italy starts to improve.

Also if Elon Musk is so good at building diving tubes in a day, he really needs to get his shit together with mass-manufacturing ventilators.

[Magic]

Lee back? :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

According to Le Figaro, Monsieur le Président is 'silently supporting' the UK approach. Good old France, always there for you in a crisis.

[Shindig]

And the Yellow Vests are back out. Immunité collective

[Waffdon]

Yeah, the general public don’t really have a care in the world. TTH and Piers Morgan are the only folks I can see worrying or at least getting into somewhat of a panic.

Pubs were busier yesterday than the norm if anything

[Shindig]

I'm not staying packed in for the fortnight, to be honest. Shopping gets me out for half an hour and I can walk to ... like, some proper northern pitholes. Anything to make it feel less like unemployment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The general public are wrong and we are right.

[Baz]

What’s the opposite of Team Panic? Team Get A Grip? I’m happy to captain.

[randomlegend]

randomlegend does your advice on the pneumococcal vaccine still stand? I told my parents to try to get it.

That's what the paediatric respiratory consultants have advised us all to do (and have done for themselves and their own families). If you aren't in a group who'd usually be offered it, you'll probably have to pay for it yourself.

[Magic]

RL I had pneumonia 12 months ago, it was terrible. Does this mean anything in terms of Coronavirus?

[ScousePig]

I shall be off to work tomorrow and I'm yet to encounter anyone aside from people on here who have expressed more than passing concern. I guess we're about to find out who's right.

Slightly related, but I only post on two message boards and the talk on this one pales into insignificance compared with the other. Yes, it's a much bigger forum, but there's been a new sub-forum created, and it has 78 threads and nearly 15k posts.

[Lewis]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

I'm sure Lewis will say this is just The Guardian attacking the tories so here:

He's attacking a misrepresentation of the policy. He seems to think that they actively want us all to catch it ('vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future'), which is doubly stupid when he basically goes on to endorse the government's approach in the last few paragraphs (albeit disputing their scheduling, which I would assume the government has reasons for).

[Mike]

Just done an online ASDA shop to arrive on Saturday as it's payday (my usual online shop day). Got a different pasta to normal coming, and aloe vera toilet paper. Bloody panic buyers. Wonder how much stuff will actually arrive.

[Raoul Duke]

Spreadsheet people: can we get number of tests p/d and ICU capacity on these charts?

[Yevrah]

He's attacking a misrepresentation of the policy. He seems to think that they actively want us all to catch it ('vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future'), which is doubly stupid when he basically goes on to endorse the government's approach in the last few paragraphs (albeit disputing their scheduling, which I would assume the government has reasons for).

They do want us to catch it Lewis, that much is clear as day.

[Foe]

Despite the ceo guidance, my boss+1 he sent an email out with his expectations that i, amongst others, am in the office on Monday.

It’s going to be a ghost town so I’m wearing jeans.

Suspect we will be told to work out how to work remotely with meetings etc and then working from home from Wednesday or so. If we end up being the only chumps in the office I’ll be pissed. If everyone else is meeting digitally and we aren’t allowed to do F2F meetings it’s pointless being there.

Downloading the whole lot of sex and the City from sky box sets to fill the time..

[John Arne]

Spreadsheet people: can we get number of tests p/d and ICU capacity on these charts?

If the data is out there... sure. Any link?

[Mike]

What’s the opposite of Team Panic? Team Get A Grip? I’m happy to captain.

You're only allowed to join if you haven't bought more toilet paper than you'd normally buy.

[randomlegend]

RL I had pneumonia 12 months ago, it was terrible. Does this mean anything in terms of Coronavirus?

You might have some residual lung damage that puts you at higher risk of being seriously ill if you do catch it, but it's hard to know.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

RIP Magic.

[Yevrah]

RL, will you formally accept the roll of TTH doctor?

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://twitter.com/wokingfc/status/1239226827719299072

I don't want to put this too crudely, but white van man needs to smell the coffee and get his act together. Another rise in Italian cases/deaths today.

[Baz]

You're only allowed to join if you haven't bought more toilet paper than you'd normally buy.D’oh. I’ll send my replica shirt back in exchange for a Team Panic one and take my photo wearing it, behind my 48 toilet rolls and 440 teabags.

[niko_cee]

Nothing but Di Cecco pasta in the supermarket here today.

Allied to the fleets of Abarth 500s you should think about relocating Pepe. Very proximate to La France as well.

[Yevrah]

Over 3,500 new cases in Italy and 368 deaths.

Fucking hell.

[Magic]

You might have some residual lung damage that puts you at higher risk of being seriously ill if you do catch it, but it's hard to know.

That's good enough for me. RIP.

[niko_cee]

Italy just showing why you don't go over that line, the one we're going to be limbo-ing under.

[Yevrah]

Italy just showing why you don't go over that line, the one we're going to be limbo-ing under.

How are we going to be limbo-ing under it though? Do you really not think we're going to get over 2,000 deaths even if we locked down now?

[Giggles]

All pubs closed here effective immediately until March 29th.

[Disco]

You'll get more suicides than corona deaths.

[Shindig]

When China had a problem with capacity, those hospitals were straight up.

[niko_cee]

How are we going to be limbo-ing under it though? Do you really not think we're going to get over 2,000 deaths even if we locked down now?

No idea and no idea, although I don't think we're going to see a recreation of the Italian experience.

[Boydy]

1238909743105597441

:D

Lol

[Giggles]

You'll get more suicides than corona deaths.

Piling haven’t been really busy here in years apart from the tourist traps. Drink got too expensive during the tiger.

[John Arne]

Interesting to see European countries suddenly not giving it the ol "EUROPE TOGETHER!!!". Each country seems to be making different decisions, there's no unified message, and now borders are being closed.

[Yevrah]

You'll get more suicides than corona deaths.

And more people killed by paper clips, and more people killed by falling fridges and, and, and

[Yevrah]

No idea and no idea, although I don't think we're going to see a recreation of the Italian experience.

Why not?

[Yevrah]

Interesting to see European countries suddenly not giving it the ol "EUROPE TOGETHER!!!". Each country seems to be making different decisions, there's no unified message, and now borders are being closed.

It is an interesting one for the great European experiment. The borders will presumably stay closed for months, maybe years too, as once you've done it you surely need to be certain there's no more coming in again.

If our strategy works, we could clean up over that.

[randomlegend]

RL, will you formally accept the roll of TTH doctor?

What does the role entail?

[John Arne]

What does the role entail?

You have to send each TTH member $4 a week, and a face mask.

[Giggles]

What does the role entail?

Placating magic.

[Pepe]

Is De Cecco not selling because it is actually made in Italy? If so, lol.

[niko_cee]

Is De Cecco not selling because it is actually made in Italy? If so, lol.

I guessed it was just more expensive, I think most of the pasta we have here is made in Italy.

[Spikey M]

Is De Cecco not selling because it is actually made in Italy? If so, lol.

People are refusing to buy Corona beer. Never doubt the stupidity of the general public.

[Shindig]

I do love the idea of someone looking at a near empty pasta shelf and sticking to their inner price limits in a crisis.

[Yevrah]

Does it have "made in Italy" on it, clearly labelled? If so, that'll be why.

It's moronic, but people are morons. We all knew that anyway.

[Yevrah]

What does the role entail?

Giving advice for those that are struggling to breathe about when to hit 111.

[Spikey M]

If RL turns it down, I'll take it. What I lack in qualifications I make up for in spirit. Spirit. Spirit and information from YouTube videos.

[Lofty]

I wonder if those panic buying are as concerned about their home security arrangements because if this is as bad as projected then the have nots will have plenty of opportunity to roam around and acquire what they need from the haves whilst blue light response times are decimated.

[Giggles]

I wonder if those panic buying are as concerned about their home security arrangements because if this is as bad as projected then the have nots will have plenty of opportunity to roam around and acquire what they need from the haves whilst blue light response times are decimated.

Yeah I wouldn’t be sticking the beer stash up on Instagram or anything.

[Yevrah]

https://i.postimg.cc/QM8STQ3X/Coronavirus.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

Right, just knocked the above together in terms of us vs. Italy.

The number of days passed was taken from the first day Wikipedia started recording infection cases by day, but it's largely pointless as we don't know how close "day 0" was in each country.

What we do know is that the number of deaths we've seen today and yesterday puts us somewhere at the start of the highlighted range for Italy. They're a similar sized population, but their spread seems more localised than ours, where bar Norfolk (I might need them to let me back in at some stage) it's everywhere.

The next two or three days are crucial in mapping how close we'll get to their trajectory. If we're posting another 20 or so deaths tomorrow and close to double that by Wednesday, we're very possibly on exactly the same trajectory as they were. If we are, we're going to be posting hundreds of deaths a day this time next week and if the deaths are that high the cases must be similar at the same stage as them (or more, given Italy's ludicrous mortality rate from it) and we'll have run out of current ICU beds in around two weeks.

[Yevrah]

Forgot to add, the red line is the day when Italy locked everything down and with their approach and wished they'd done it sooner. If we're going to change tack on ours we need to be doing it now, otherwise (and if we hit Italy's trajectory over the next 2/3 days) I think we're in this for the long haul, with a lot more deaths in the short term than any other country will be facing.

And that long haul starts before the end of March.

[Baz]

People are refusing to buy Corona beer. Never doubt the stupidity of the general public.

A pub here is doing a “Virus special, 2 for 1 on Corona” offer. Pity it’s minging.

[Yevrah]

Stick a lime in it and drink it in a hot tub and it's delicious.

[Giggles]

The only way it’s delicious is if you pour it out and put a real beer in it.

[Shindig]

Guys, you know how they test vaccines on animals before moving on to human testing?

Why don't they vaccinate the bats in the first place?

[Boydy]

Guys, you know how they test vaccines on animals before moving on to human testing?

Why don't they vaccinate the bats in the first place?
It'd be pretty hard to catch all the bats to vaccinate them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Government (on Thursday) had us 4 weeks behind Italy, Yevrah has us 2 weeks behind Italy.

Really hope that the government are right.

[Luca]

It'd be pretty hard to catch all the bats to vaccinate them.

Didn’t Vietnam manage to vaccinate (or incinerate) all the chickens set for human consumption during the last bird flu round?

John Arne