UK General Election 2017 - 8 June

[Jimmy Floyd]

Because what we all needed was another vote on things.

Who will you vote for? Poll to follow (not the last one, alas).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Etr-Jr-ou1M

[Kikó]

I'll either waste my vote and go liberal or Labour and stick with Emily in Islington.

[Offshore Toon]

Same as Kikó, but I realise its a bit of a pointless exercise. Caroline Lucas will run away with it here.

[Giggles]

GS just heard the news.

https://i.warosu.org/data/3/img/0004/31/1405805031872.jpg

[-james-]

Dunno.

I align with most of what the red team say but i don't know if i could vote for Corbyn. Might help if he stopped pretending to love Europe.


I live in Glasgow Kelvin though so it really couldn't matter less. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Magic]

Lol better get some childish confectionary and binge food ready so I can do an all nighter and watch the results come in! Will have to postpone my sex arranged for that night! Can't wait!

[Jimmy Floyd]

A dominant woman decides to capitalise on her advantage over an unpopular man trapped in an unhappy situation in order to strengthen her position still further and gain the upper hand in the inevitable exit deal to be signed in a couple of years' time. And then there's also the election.

[Magic]

A harsh but acceptable retort.

[Bartholomert]

Lol Tories about to wreck shit

[Henry]

So, nobody cares that the repeated denials of an early general election turned out to be lies? We're post-cynicism now I suppose.

[GS]

You can't exactly say "we'll have a general election in about six months' time, depending on how it goes". It creates uncertainty, by spooking markets, and it puts every party on an election footing in case it's called. Nothing would get done. It would have been far more damaging to intimate repeatedly that you may have one and then not call it, frankly.

That said, it's very interesting to see continued adherents to the Red Menace claiming it's a 'nakedly political act' to call an election. Of course it is. As it has been every time ever before the constitutional abomination that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act. What they mean is that Jezza is about to be annihilated and that's going to be a particularly unpleasant reality to confront.

[Magic]

Anything described as 'post-' anything can just get to fuck, as well as the clown using it.

[phonics]

Nothing would get done..

So, business as usual then?

[Lewis]

No bollocks telly debates as well. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

So, nobody cares that the repeated denials of an early general election turned out to be lies? We're post-cynicism now I suppose.

Please refer me to a historical era in which politicians didn't lie.

[Henry]

Please refer me to a historical era in which politicians didn't lie.

I won't, but does that make it acceptable when they do?

[GS]

I won't, but does that make it acceptable when they do?

Why do you care what the reasons are? Surely you should be thrilled at the idea that there's an opportunity to kick the Tories out.

[Magic]

Why do you care what the reasons are? Surely you should be thrilled at the idea that there's an opportunity to kick the Tories out.

He votes Green, mate.

[GS]

Some immediate polling data here, gentlemen. It suggests that the Tory lead is around 20% (consistent with two other polls over the weekend), and the public are supportive of another general election being called.

Perhaps more indicative of the final result, May has a massive lead over Corbyn on leadership and perception, whilst May/Hammond also have a huge lead on economic competence. These were the two key drivers in 1992 that helped to bring Major back into power, and that was without an already huge poll lead and Labour's numbers being a bit soft.

Assuming nothing goes hugely wrong for the Tories before the 8 June, then it could well be a massacre.


Majority of voters think May right to change her mind and call an early election, poll suggests

Voting intention

ICM has carried out a snap poll today on the general election announcement. The state of the party figures are very good for the Conservatives, although that is not particularly surprising because other recent polls have produced similar results.

What is potentially more significant is that the poll shows strong support for Theresa May’s decision to call an early election. Voters accept her argument for doing a U-turn on an early election, and do not seem to mind being dragged to the polls only two years after the last general election.

Here are the key figures.

Conservatives: 46% (up 2 from Guardian/ICM over the weekend)
Labour: 25% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 11% (up 1)
Ukip: 8% (down 3)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Conservative lead: 21 points (up 3)

This is the joint highest Conservative lead in Guardian/IMC polling, matching the Tory lead in June 1983. And, at 46%, the Conservative share of the vote is also at its joint highest, matching its figure in the 1992 general election.

Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.

Reaction to snap election

People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.

Support: 55%
Oppose: 15%

Most voters support an early election, the poll suggests. Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters back the early election in broadly equal numbers (64%, 65% and 60% respectively). Those least supportive are Ukip voters, only 49% of whom back holding an early election. It was then put to respondents that May used to be adamant that she would not call an early election. They were asked which of these three statements they most agreed with.

The situation has changed, and May is right to change her mind: 54%
Nothing has changed and May is wrong to hold an election: 21%
Don’t know: 25%

A majority of voters think May is right to change her mind on an early election.

Expected outcome

Respondents were then asked what outcome they expected.

About a quarter of respondents said they expected the Conservatives to win a majority of more than 100.
People were asked if they would treat this as a normal general election or as a second Brexit referendum.

Normal general election: 67%
Second Brexit referendum: 17%

Personal ratings

There was a question about which team is best able to manage the economy.

Theresa May and Philip Hammond: 51%
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: 12%

May and Philip Hammond have a 39-point lead over Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell on economic competence, the poll suggests.

And finally, there were questions about whether leaders are doing a good or bad job.

May

Good job: 57%
Bad job: 24%
Net score: +33

Corbyn

Good job: 13%
Bad job: 61%
Net score: -48

May has a massive lead over Corbyn in terms of general approval ratings.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ online immediately after the announcement that a general election had been called on 18 April 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

[GS]

There's a second poll showing support for calling the election, so it won't be an effective attack line to say she shouldn't have called one:

854367344361123840

[GS]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-opposes-automatic-reselection-of-labour-mps-for-general-election-sources-claim_uk_58f638a7e4b0b9e9848ec795?iqk

Make it happen.

[Spikey M]

Probably Terry May but with absolutely no pleasure in doing so.

[Lewis]

854353800722866176

Alright, mate.

[John]

854353800722866176

Alright, mate.

She said she wouldn't comment on the announcement until tomorrow, then had a pop at Theresa May for lying.

What a self important cunt.

[Magic]

It's a pity she ruined such a joyous and happy occasion.

[Spikey M]

It's almost as if dead relatives of unimportant MP's didn't factor in the decision.

[Offshore Toon]

Won't somebody please think of the poor mums! :(

[Pleb]

Ironic this snap election is happening with a local council election just 2 to 3 weeks away.

Corbyn will probably walk into number 10 with TTH pointing fingers and lolling at him.

[Spikey M]

With the Polls performances in the last few outings Corbyn will win all of the seats. Including the Queens throne. I for one welcome our new Communist overlord.

[Raoul Duke]

Corbz is going to get absolutely felt up here.

It's about as easy an election to call as there's been in my lifetime. May might as well go for it as there's no way she'll lose, it gives her credibility (#mandate) and settles things down pre-Brexit.

[Magic]

Tenner on Corbz? Lol.

[Shindig]

I don't even think an election defeat would boot Corbyn out of leadership.

[Lewis]

Tony Blair campaigning for (sorry, 'alongside') the Liberal Democrats would be all sorts of lol.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The problem for Labour is not so much that Jezza is an idiot, but the fact that they as a party are completely unprepared to run an election campaign. They don't have any candidates currently, for example, except for whichever brave souls are prepared to run as incumbents. Then you'll have all the Momentum entryism and process-driven wank getting in the way as well, and that's before you've even started to think about forming a coherent policy platform, let alone one that will defeat the Conservatives.

It wouldn't surprise me if they lost 100 MPs and the Conservative majority after this was around 250-300.

[phonics]

Tim 'I hate the gays' Farron running alongside Tony 'I led to the deaths of millions of brown people' Blair to unite the country would be quite the sight.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Oh and lol at someone coming up with a 'Tim Farron hates homosexuals' narrative already.

[phonics]

Oh and lol at someone coming up with a 'Tim Farron hates homosexuals' narrative already.

He thinks it's a cureable disease.

[Lewis]

Yeah, it all got dredged up pretty quickly. Wasn't his position basically what dela cried off over expressing? I don't see much wrong with it, but if you imagine what would happen if Nigel Farage said it then balls to Tim Farron.

[phonics]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9sI5WYXgAA4O2r.jpg:large

'They' tells you all you need to know before we even get to the gay frogs, at least Nige would have thrown a French joke in at the end.

He, of course, claims he was hacked.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is there a Lib Dem who hasn't had some sort of gay related scandal lurking under the bedsheets?

[phonics]

A group of us once got told off once for turning a part of a school assembly hymn (so weird now I think about it) into Paddy Pantsdown. I assume he had one?

IIRC, it was year 4 or so so our satire must have been pretty high level.

[GS]

854365083266408448

Outstanding.

[Yevrah]

That's game over for him then.

[GS]

It would be if game over if he was exposed as the massive insubstantial charlatan he is, but never underestimate a Lib Dem's ability to come back from a scandal. It's basically a right of passage.

[Lewis]

You would think that the sort of perma-outraged wally liable to be put off by that is probably a demented remainer anyway, in which case it will just win them Bradford East back.

[Lewis]

That Mail front page is, erm... Yeah.

[Boydy]

Couldn't you post it?

EDIT: Just seen it on Facebook. Fucking hell.

[GS]

They almost certainly believe it as well, which is the worrying part of it. It's representative of the nutter fringe.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Newspapers need to do ridiculous front pages now in order to draw attention to themselves. 'May calls snap election' isn't going to sell many copies.

[phonics]

Do you think that sells papers?

Can't wait to be crushed.

[Henry]

Jesus :D

That's actually quite funny. Not so offensive as their usual.

[GS]

The Guardian have reached peak seethe over this. Some of the hand-wringing in the articles is absolutely belting. Their position boils down to the people shouldn't be consulted because they'll vote for her.

:harold:

[Lewis]

It's not even about the Labour Party. They remember 1997-2005, and now they're on the wrong end of it.

[Byron]

Well looks like my only option are the Greens. That said, Norwich South is one of their target seats, they finished third behind Labour (Clive Lewis) and Norwich South is peak lefty territory.

Reckon the Greens might get 3 seats overall. Brighton Pavilion, Norwich South and Bristol West.

[Boydy]

Why are Greens your only option?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The idea that Remain voters are all going to cross over to the Lib Dems en masse is going to be one of many disappointments to an already disappointed Twitter.

Some will go but we're talking parliamentary seats here, they can't win more than 60-80 even if they had a stormer.

[GS]

If they recover to about 30 seats, that would be a great effort. They'll be hampered by significantly less TV time than they would have had last time out and a leader who nobody knows.

Meanwhile, the meltdown continues:

"Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an election because she rejects the idea of an opposition on our democracy. We are not some dictatorship."

Chuka Umunna, there.

[Spikey M]

What with Dictators being famous for their love of elections.

[phonics]

Most of the good dictators (as in good at being dictators, not benevolent ones) hold elections, they just fix them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Parliament has to vote it through, on a two thirds majority no less. Good old Parliament, with its sovereignty. Bloody dictator Theresa May.

[phonics]

ITV confirm they're going to have a leaders debate whether May says yes or not.

[GS]

With Corbyn, Farron et al on stage, May would look significantly more heavyweight just by not turning up.

[SvN]

I disagree with that. I think the majority of people would be pissed off at her not turning up.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Leader debates should be outlawed. They are utterly awful. It's not a presidential system.

At best there could be issue specific debates involving the relevant party spokesmen.

[GS]

Leader debates should be outlawed. They are utterly awful. It's not a presidential system.

At best there could be issue specific debates involving the relevant party spokesmen.

Exactly. Nobody is going to think Jez is worth a vote after watching him screech his way through a debate.

[Henry]

So I might have a vote again by the time this happens. It will be for the Greens if they're running, and probably SDLP otherwise.

As regards the UK generally and the apparent impending Tory mudslide, one must unfortunately recognise Corbyn's lack of competency as a big problem. Any left-winger who attains a prominent position is going to have everything stacked against him, and needs to be able to manage his message and the media very well, in addition to coming across as personally charismatic. Whatever about his wider philosophy, Corbyn fails in those areas badly. One looks at someone like Bernie Sanders (who still didn't win, but made a better go at it) as an example of what Labour should aspire to. If/when they're beaten and if/when Corbyn quits, they aren't going to achieve anything if they return to being Tory-lite in a bunch of empty suits.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've developed a theory that voters don't actually give a shit about ideology or policy, and just vote in whoever comes across as least useless, regardless of policy platform.

This also explains incumbency advantage.

I reckon if 2001 Hague and 2001 Blair swapped their rosettes and manifestos, then Blair still pisses it.

[phonics]

Yeah but then Trump blows your theory out the water with 59 tomahawk missiles.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm not talking about Americans, Christ knows they are a rule unto themselves.

I think it holds up over here.

[Magic]

Yeah but then Trump blows your theory out the water with 59 tomahawk missiles.

Does he?

I'd say Shillary appeared even more useless.

[Henry]

Hilary was boringly competent. They voted for Trump because he was a loose cannon.

[Magic]

Hilary was boringly competent. They voted for Trump because he was a loose cannon.

:cab:

At what?

[Offshore Toon]

Hillary and Trump are both liars and both extremely fake people, but Trump had the bravado and confidence that made it all a bit of a joke so he was likeable. Hilary was just weird.

[Offshore Toon]

:cab:

At what?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8q29F1jPvNk

[John]

:cab:

At what?

Governance. In CV terms she was just about the most qualified person ever to run for the office, and the only person in the country who could run with a better CV would be Colin Powell.

[Magic]

Governance. In CV terms she was just about the most qualified person ever to run for the office, and the only person in the country who could run with a better CV would be Colin Powell.

To be in jail, too.

[phonics]

There's another piece on the news about the old lady who didn't want an election.

Get back that lady Brown called a bigot.

[Spikey M]

She's probably dead. Shame, she'd have loved Bexit. 'Kickemaat! Ooo yoo callin racist?'

[John]

That MP moaning that Theresa May ruined her mum's funeral only won her seat through a by-election because the last bloke died. You think she'd have more respect for out of step elections.

[Lewis]

https://www.gofundme.com/whats-best-for-britain

Give it up, love.

[John]

'We need to prevent the people being given the thing they voted for.'

[Henry]

http://68.media.tumblr.com/fe4dd2110ca40b3c13fc86c257cda7ed/tumblr_oa9kfuydxn1utqlyco1_500.jpg

[John]

In that analogy Corbyn gets cut in half while May wins in a big way for many, many years.

[Henry]

And presumably Boris then overthrows May and defects to the Labour party?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I just don't think it suits them to admit that a bigger Tory majority = softer Brexit because she doesn't have to worry about Peter Bone torpedoing her Commons votes anymore.

[GS]

She won't row back from her commitments to come out of the single market / customs union, as she shouldn't, but I suspect there'll be a longer transition period than the hardcore leaver will be comfortable with. That and some sort of deal on immigration, no doubt, which she'll pass off as "control, lads".

Gina Miller really thinks she's some sort of modern-day revolutionary, like Che Guevara with a Twitter feed. The level of self-importance is startling.

[John]

She's worth millions as well, if it's really as desperately important as she says what's she doing trying to crowdsource fifty grand to fund it?

[GS]

Like many on the left, she's firmly decided that she wants something but has decided even more firmly that other people should pay for it.

[Boydy]

Stop confusing liberals with the left.

[GS]

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist...

[Shindig]

Leader debates should be outlawed. They are utterly awful. It's not a presidential system.

At best there could be issue specific debates involving the relevant party spokesmen.

Aye, your vote is at a local level. It just happens that the party with the most seats gets to plug a government together.

[GS]

Given ITV put Farage up in the "debates", irrespective of Leave.EU not being the designated group for the campaign, you have to wonder what shite they'll get up to this time. They'll probably bring out Ken Clarke as a 'representative of the Conservative party'.

[Lewis]

That has raised about ten grand since I posted it, even though you would think that anybody liable to vote solely on the issue would have done so anyway. Still, it keeps her in the news.

https://s9.postimg.org/b2drdj0zz/Untitled.png

I would actually like to talk to somebody of this mindset. Even if you like the European Union, how do you get to that sort of point?

[GS]

854802665116717056

:|

[Shindig]

That has raised about ten grand since I posted it, even though you would think that anybody liable to vote solely on the issue would have done so anyway. Still, it keeps her in the news.

https://s9.postimg.org/b2drdj0zz/Untitled.png

I would actually like to talk to somebody of this mindset. Even if you like the European Union, how do you get to that sort of point?

Tough shit, sir. Your kids are studying in Britain.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If they play their cards right (which they probably won't) I wouldn't rule out a 300 majority.

[GS]

If they play their cards right (which they probably won't) I wouldn't rule out a 300 majority.

It depends on how brutal the Crosby campaign is going to be, as you'd imagine it might annoy tentative Tory voters. Then again, what other option do most of them really have.

[Spoonsky]

Aye, your vote is at a local level. It just happens that the party with the most seats gets to plug a government together.

It's why I don't get this "unelected leader" thing. The people didn't elect David Cameron to be leader either, they just happened to vote for his party.

Actually that's being fairly obtuse, but I'm curious (because it's so different here) - when you guys vote, are you voting more for the party, the leader of that party, or the local representative?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The 'unelected PM' thing is horseshit. No PM has been 'elected' in the history of the British Isles nor will one ever be.

It's just a convenient thing to beat your political opponent with without having to actually use reasoned argument.

In a general election I think you're voting for the party really, unless you have a particularly strong view on your local candidates (if there was a great local MP for Labour/LDs I'd consider voting for them, even though I'm generally a Tory supporter).

Voting some way because you love Corbyn, David Cameron or Paddy Ashdown would be a bit weird.

[GS]

It's why I don't get this "unelected leader" thing. The people didn't elect David Cameron to be leader either, they just happened to vote for his party.

Actually that's being fairly obtuse, but I'm curious (because it's so different here) - when you guys vote, are you voting more for the party, the leader of that party, or the local representative?

Myriad of different reasons why people vote they want they do (e.g. Douglas Carswell could stand for the Nazi Party in Clacton and still win because he's (apparently) a top class local MP, some people will vote Labour because they always have and always will etc.)

As an indicator of which party is going to do well, the two key metrics are generally 'leadership' and 'economic competence'. People do vote for a party based on who the best PM would be, but that's irrelevant once the parliament is elected. It's a parliamentary system, not a presidential one.

As Floyd eludes to, it's politically convenient to have a moan about it because you know the new leader almost certainly won't call an election in their first month. The last four Prime Ministers 'elected' all handed over power mid-parliament (Blair to Brown, Thatcher to Major, Wilson to Callaghan) and they didn't bother going to the country. The only time it's happened in recent memory was 1955 when Churchill handed over to Eden, but then the last election was in 1951 and they were due one anyway.

That line of attack, plus this TV debate nonsense, is an attempt to push things into some sort of bizarre middle ground between our system and the American one. It's fucking stupid, really. We should blame Tony Blair, with his "Supreme Court" bollocks and his ignorance of cabinet government as starting it all.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've always thought a great monster raving loony equivalent would be someone fielding a bunch of candidates as 'The Nazi Party' complete with uniforms, swastika armbands, toothbrush moustaches and comical German noms de plume - and manifesto items like 'We will gas all the juice'. Doubt Twitter would approve of the joke though so it's probably not a goer.

[Lewis]

Were it not for the 2008 CHANGE train, the 'Hillary' cult would have been the most sinister thing in recent history.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Were it not for the 2008 CHANGE train, the 'Hillary' cult would have been the most sinister thing in recent history.

I loved this shit:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h-42YsYWZM

They don't even realise which is the best bit.

[phonics]

How is everything in the world Tony Blairs fault if the leader of the party doesn't matter?

[Boydy]

It's weird how you're all pretending the 'unelected prime minister' thing was only ever levelled at May.

It was fucking massive when Brown was in. I've hardly seen it mentioned with regards to May except for your strawmen on here.

[Lewis]

It's good, but this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51kAw4OTlA0) will never be topped. David Cameron shitting himself in Steve Hilton's allotment just can't compete.

[Lewis]

To this day I still devote at least an hour a week to lolling at that Labour one of people in Chiswick having their kids confiscated and hospital torched.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Christ, that hasn't aged well. Obama the President took himself far less seriously than that as well.

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcRXbsPafBM

Such innocent times when the main election issues were MP expenses and the bankers the bonuses the bankers the bonuses. RIP ginner.

[Lewis]

I think Jezza should re-create this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gi5j7jjhm4M), but with a Morning Star, and a Trabant, and so on.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Ken Loach selling balloons instead of Paterson Joseph, Diane Abbott at the flower stall.

I really am looking forward to the Jezmania aspect of this campaign, it'll be class. The man is a living legend.

[Lewis]

Can we have 'Things Can Only Get Jezza' as the thread sub-title?

[Spoonsky]

I loved this shit:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h-42YsYWZM

They don't even realise which is the best bit.

Your damn emails. :(

He lost the primary in that moment (which Trump called immediately, funnily enough).

[Shindig]

As another Five Live breakfast politics thing turns into another North - South debate (which the beeb can't be fucked with for time constraints), I've realised we're always going to get fucked over. "I've made more funding for X" quickly becomes, "There's not much need for X in the North." Makes me realise most political policies have the all the precision of a hammer operated by a child.

[Byron]

That's the one thing that infuriates me about all governments. 'We've made an extra £xbn available'

Well how do we know that's enough and it's being spent properly you cockwombles?

[Yeldoow]

The 'unelected PM' thing is horseshit. No PM has been 'elected' in the history of the British Isles nor will one ever be.

It's just a convenient thing to beat your political opponent with without having to actually use reasoned argument.

In a general election I think you're voting for the party really, unless you have a particularly strong view on your local candidates (if there was a great local MP for Labour/LDs I'd consider voting for them, even though I'm generally a Tory supporter).

Voting some way because you love Corbyn, David Cameron or Paddy Ashdown would be a bit weird.

Surely you're voting for the party as led by Cameron/May/Corbyn/whoever.

The leader has a lot of influence on the direction of the party. The Conservatives under May are different from the Conservatives under Cameron. It's easy to see why people want to have a say on whether they like the new direction the government is taking when the leader changes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

We vote in representatives to the Parliament and then it's up to them to sort themselves out. The makeup and priorities of the government / opposition are inevitably going to change within a 5 year period and sometimes that includes the leader.

It's more the media circus and desperation to be like America with a presidential system (because personalities sell papers) that drives the stuff about party leadership, rather than anything constitutional.

[Magic]

Just voted in my local council election.

1. Lib Dem
2. Labour
3. Tory

:harold:

[Spikey M]

What a mong

[Magic]

The wife just voted as well, and because I'm learning Portuguese right now (fuk u Enty) I just went through and asked her if she knew what the first/second/third person is and she replied:

Oh I can't remember, didn't I put Labour/Lib Dem/that guy from round the corner?

LOL.

[GS]

Surely you're voting for the party as led by Cameron/May/Corbyn/whoever.

The leader has a lot of influence on the direction of the party. The Conservatives under May are different from the Conservatives under Cameron. It's easy to see why people want to have a say on whether they like the new direction the government is taking when the leader changes.

They may want to, but they have no intrinsic right to. Ultimately the governing party is effectively bound by their manifesto.

The Salisbury Convention dictates that the Lords won't block anything that was included in the manifesto, but if it wasn't then they are free to do so. It's why May wouldn't get grammar schools through in this parliament without a fresh mandate.

Hammond wanted to increase NIC, and couldn't because of the outcry over a manifesto breach. Changing PM doesn't change any of this, so it's not a relevant trigger for a new election. People voted for a party, and their programme for government. The leader is irrelevant.

On a side note, the Liberal "Democrats" are on record as saying they won't abide by the Salisbury Convention any more. Effectively they're using their Lords in lieu of being roasted in the general election. When you consider that in the context of their clear policy breach on tuition fees, and their Brexit stance, they're probably the most anti democratic party in the UK.

[Magic]

They may want to, but they have no intrinsic right to. Ultimately the governing party is effectively bound by their manifesto.

The Salisbury Convention dictates that the Lords won't block anything that was included in the manifesto, but if it wasn't then they are free to do so. It's why May wouldn't get grammar schools through in this parliament without a fresh mandate.

Hammond wanted to increase NIC, and couldn't because of the outcry over a manifesto breach. Changing PM doesn't change any of this, so it's not a relevant trigger for a new election. People voted for a party, and their programme for government. The leader is irrelevant.

On a side note, the Liberal "Democrats" are on record as saying they won't abide by the Salisbury Convention any more. Effectively they're using their Lords in lieu of being roasted in the general election. When you consider that in the context of their clear policy breach on tuition fees, and their Brexit stance, they're probably the most anti democratic party in the UK.

https://i.makeagif.com/media/12-14-2015/41ylpj.gif

[GS]

Them too.

[Kikó]

I look forward to our one party state.

[Henry]

Ultimately the governing party is effectively bound by their manifesto.

No they aren't. They violate their manifesto promises all over the place.

[randomlegend]

Yes but the people elected them KNOWING they would break their manifesto promises, so can you stop protesting about it please?

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

For the first time ever I'm considering taking the Friday off work and pulling an all-nighter.

I remember reading stuff like that on here before and thinking how unbelievably sad you'd have to be.

[phonics]

Why would you do that for the most boring election of all time?

P.S. Carswell is going to step down. BOTTLING the showdown with Arron Banks.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Poor old Arron Banks has been rather blindsided by all this I think. The wanker. No time to get his personality cult properly off the ground.

[GS]

No they aren't. They violate their manifesto promises all over the place.

Yes, they are. Certainly in the context that we're discussing. Some promises obviously become redundant.

You do get the odd material exception (Lib Dems on tuition, or Labour refusing to have a vote on the Lisbon Treaty) but they get their comeuppance when they go back before the public.

It's not a perfect system, but it's as good as you're going to get.

We could, of course, have stayed in the EU where there are no manifestos and no mechanisms for booting out the wankers. But there you are.

[Spikey M]

Actually, I might chuck Jezza a sympathy vote. The Conservatives always win round here anyway. Bless him and his little 'anti-Establishment' pitch. UKIP have already pocketed that card, Jez.

[Henry]

The list of manifesto promises broken is endless. There is no mechanism to bind anyone to them. You're talking shit.

[Lewis]

https://reubendangoor.myshopify.com/products/corbyn-dab-tee

:drool:

[GS]

The list of manifesto promises broken is endless. There is no mechanism to bind anyone to them. You're talking shit.

Your failure to understand the constitutional settlement in the UK remains a source of constant fascination.

Perhaps you've been spending too much time looking at Twitter trends.

[Henry]

This guy (https://gx99g.wordpress.com/2015/07/06/the-conservative-party-manifesto-lies-2015/) has helpfully catalogued 21 manifesto promises that have been broken by the Tories since 2015. You could come up with similar lists for other governments. It's quite clear that these are regarded less as things they intend to do but as a vague wish-list that may or may not change depending on what suits.

Clearly any constitutional measure intended to hold them to their promises is defective.

[GS]

He's helpfully catalogued a list, but more unhelpfully has catalogued a list that includes fundamental errors.

Not that I have time to go through the whole thing, because why would you, but even a cursory look demonstrates this. Obvious examples include the single market (superseded by the referendum), grammar schools (which haven't gone ahead and would be blocked by the Lords).

I'm sure there are many other discrepancies in his list, but it clearly cannot be considered credible.

[Henry]

The promise about the single market is that they would stay in regardless of the referendum. You, Tory boy, are the one who isn't credible.

[GS]

It says "yes to the single market... Yes to a family of nation states all part of the European Union". The discussion is in the context of European Union membership, but then it says, later on the same page no less, "we will hold that in-out referendum before the end of 2017 and respect the outcome".

This is consistent with what they did. Cameron renegotiated, they held a referendum, the government's official position was to stay in, but they lost and are now implementing the result.

If you want to fabricate your own view, that's fine, just spare the rest of us your fiction.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Manifestos should be binned as well. We should be electing representatives to make the right choices on the issues of the day, whatever those issues may be.

[GS]

Manifestos are fine - you need to have some sort of programme to put to the country, and we'd end up having the American shite of the opposition packaging together interview clips to try and claim they've lied.

Basically what Henry is doing now, only on YouTube.

[Henry]

The referendum was not about the single market, and it's quite clear that it's still possible to stay in - except that the Tories are prioritizing other things and making that impossible. Having made clear that you have no problem with politicians lying reflexively, one wonder why you're bothering to pretend that they haven't in this instance. Probably just the partisan blinkers.

[GS]

The referendum was about everything the single market and customs union entails. Leaving the EU means leaving its institutions. This isn't hard.

[Henry]

There's quite a lot of debate and discussion about what leaving the EU entails. You don't get to declare it from on high.

[Magic]

Thought I'd have to wait another 3 years for this. :drool:

EDIT: GS and Henn0rz, that is.

[Spikey M]

It's why I don't get this "unelected leader" thing. The people didn't elect David Cameron to be leader either, they just happened to vote for his party.

Actually that's being fairly obtuse, but I'm curious (because it's so different here) - when you guys vote, are you voting more for the party, the leader of that party, or the local representative?

Technically it's your local representative, but in reality most people base their vote on the leader of the party.

[Spikey M]

I was too young to really appreciate The Troubles, is this pretty much what it was like?

[Magic]

I was too young to really appreciate The Troubles, is this pretty much what it was like?

Don't be so fucking stupid.

This is way worse.

[Spikey M]

Well, I do feel like I have shrapnel in my eyes.

[Magic]

I'd rather be bombed shopping with my family rather than read Henry and GS having banter.

[Spikey M]

Flanter

[GS]

They're counting in the Unite leadership election today. Early returns indicate that Gerard Coyne is ahead of Red Len McCluskey.

Unite have suspended Coyne as of about fifteen minutes ago.

Outstanding.

[Magic]

Pikey and Tragic banter > BS and Lenny Henry.

[Boydy]

The referendum was about everything the single market and customs union entails. Leaving the EU means leaving its institutions. This isn't hard.

I dunno, your dick seems pretty hard for it.

[GS]

Not quite, but the impending destruction of the socialists will be most enjoyable.

When do you concede that the electorate want nothing to do with it and move on?

[Pepe]

'The electorate' :sick:

[Shindig]

The referendum was about everything the single market and customs union entails. Leaving the EU means leaving its institutions. This isn't hard.

Lads, you're both wrong. The EU referendum was about a member of the public having a gut response to having, "Do you want Britain to remain in the EU?" bluntly put in front of them. There was fuck all nuance about it. A person sits there and says, "My perception of the EU is thus ... hence YES/NO."

[Pleb]

So Dimbleby and the swingometer is back then?

[Disco]

The swingometer belongs to Peter Snow.

[Magic]

Just seen some shit about virgin care. Anyone know anything about this? Tempted to vote labour now

[John]

I knew she wasn't yours.

[Magic]

I'm...I'm sorry was that an attempt at a joke? :sick:

[GS]

855174656164286465

:harold:

[Jimmy Floyd]

If they lose Barnsley you might as well shut the party down anyway.

Polly will be more at home in the Lib Dems tbh.

[phonics]

Farage saying he won't stand 'even though it would be really easy' despite having lost seven times is top, top stuff.

[GS]

She QUIT Labour and stood for the SDP in their first election after Limehouse. It takes a nerve to be that hypocritical, really.

[Jimmy Floyd]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39657843

I would normally be in favour of the dribbling old cunt fucking off, but Huw Edwards is far too nice a man to front political coverage.

[GS]

855314234007212034

Clive Lewis there, attempting to charm Tory voters into voting for Labour instead.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Clive Lewis voted against the election because it's messed up his wedding plans. Not even making that up.

[Kikó]

That flow chart has really helped me. Thanks for sharing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What if you're poor, but care more about rich people's welfare than your own?

Probably a surprisingly large chunk of the pie chart, that one.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Byron]

Clive Lewis voted against the election because it's messed up his wedding plans. Not even making that up.

Well it's better than making up a reason to vote against the election when the reality is that your majority is tiny.

I have no qualms with it, weddings cost a lot of time and money and this close to it hell stand to lose between 50-75% of what he's put in.

[Adamski]

That vote is mad, why have the majority so far voted for Labour?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Well it's better than making up a reason to vote against the election when the reality is that your majority is tiny.

I have no qualms with it, weddings cost a lot of time and money and this close to it hell stand to lose between 50-75% of what he's put in.

I'm sure it's a pain in the arse, but I wouldn't make decisions at work based on the fact that my oven had blown up.

Dennis Skinner voted against it because of TORY ELECTION FRAUD. I reckon people who reckon that's the reason behind the election should be put in a home.

[Lewis]

And we're off.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBt5wfJci18

'I'm Enver Hoxha, and I approve this message.'

[Jimmy Floyd]

I just played that in the living room and started lolling at it, but my mum heard it and shouted THAT'S FUCKING IMMORAL!

[Lewis]

Top spot as well that they papered over an expensive interactive whiteboard.

[John]

I hadn't seen that 'Corbyn's Ten Pledges' from the related videos. Good heavens. :D

[Shindig]

And we're off.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBt5wfJci18

'I'm Enver Hoxha, and I approve this message.'

North that shit up, Jeremy.

"Kids, we've ran out of money. Here's a letter to show your parents."

[GS]

Labour's election broadcasts are fantastic entertainment.

[GS]

The right-wing press are SEETHING over foreign aid being protected, the impending refusal to announce locks on pensions, and no manifesto commitment on tax rises.

It's fortunate that Labour are so utterly dreadful, really.

[Lewis]

One cause for optimism is that she seemed to suggest that it wouldn't all just continue to get sent (with no oversight) to Ugandan lesbian outreach programmes like it does now, but that it might overlap more with foreign and defence policies (although that will just mean showering Islamists with money on current form). As for pensions, if ever there was an election in which you could take the biddy vote for granted, so using the next four/five years to reform pensions is potentially the most useful thing any government will do in our lifetimes (which inevitably means they will somehow make it all worse).

[Smiffy]

.....

[Jimmy Floyd]

That isn't bad actually.

[Boydy]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/faces-jeremy-corbyn-pulled-reading-10269582

http://i3.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article10269552.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/General-Election-2017.jpg

http://i1.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article10269550.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/SWNS_CORBYN_BRISTOL_007.jpg

:D

I love him.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I really want to take over from Seumas Milne and run his campaign. Stops will include:

- Stopping off in care homes and homeless soup kitchens ALL THE TIME
- Playing chess in the street with a homeless man
- Visit the troops in Cyprus and hand out some jams and chutneys he has made
- Go for a swim in the sea
- Maybe a guest spot on Saturday Kitchen
- Refuse to turn up for the TV debates (nobody's a winner there) and go and volunteer at a bingo hall somewhere while it's on

No set pieces, crowds or stupid slogans allowed. Keep it real.

[Pleb]

When's Nick Clegg making his WWE inspired return then?

[Lewis]

He'll be in the gimmick battle royal with David Mellor and Derek Hatton, who can't bump in case his facelift comes undone.

[Boydy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C990MVqWAAQcb8t.jpg

https://twitter.com/parliawint/status/855530228919279618

[Giggles]

Is a SNAP election an actual thing or just some bullshit word someone used and everyone clung on to? The media don't fucking half love saying it and really emphasising it.

What's snap about it, or is it S.N.A.P?

[GS]

It's an actual thing. Snap as in sudden, unexpected.

[Giggles]

So it's not an actual election or political term, but a word the media are beating to death. Was it ever used before?

I could understand the likes of the Sun using snap instead of unexpected to dumb it down for their readers, but the proper media are using it too.

[GS]

It's an actual political term, and has been for years.

[Giggles]

Grand job, makes more sense then.

[Boydy]

What the tories are doing to schools (https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158524071580384&id=660365383)

[randomlegend]

Listening to my auntie and girlfriend (both teachers) it really is tragic what's happening in the education system.

Lewis and Jimmy just come in and pass it off as "teachers moaning" so I don't bother posting about it any more.

[Boydy]

Listening to my auntie and girlfriend (both teachers) it really is tragic what's happening in the education system.

Lewis and Jimmy just come in and pass it off as "teachers moaning" so I don't bother posting about it any more.

This whole thread is just detached twenty something males not caring about anything because they don't need any public services at this stage of their life.

[Offshore Toon]

This whole thread is just detached twenty something males not caring about anything because they don't need any public services at this stage of their life.
Its pretty much just Jimmy, Lewis and GS that are the Tories, isn't it? Admittedly they make up most of the posting in here.

[Smiffy]

.....

[ItalAussie]

What the tories are doing to schools (https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158524071580384&id=660365383)

The way funding is allocated to schools has always seemed like lunacy to me. I see already wealthy schools getting government-funded sports venues while I know of teachers who have to purchase books out of their own pockets. At the current rate in Australia, private schools will get more government money per student than public schools by 2020. I assume there must be a logic to it, but it just seems like madness to have so many schools that are so poorly funded, and so much money going to schools with independent revenue streams.

Is it crazy that I think any school that charges admission fees should be locked out of government funding? They already have a way of making money, after all. I feel like I'm missing something, to be honest, because it just seems so obvious that it could only be missed for very good reasons.

[GS]

This whole thread is just detached twenty something males not caring about anything because they don't need any public services at this stage of their life.

This perfectly encapsulates the problem on the left, I think. People don't vote Tory because they "don't care about public services". I care about them, but Labour's record is a bit grim and the solution of throwing money at the problem whilst simultaneously working out how you're going to fund it isn't exactly a winner. The shadow education secretary was on Daily Politics yesterday and he couldn't explain how any of their proposals, however reasonable they may sound, were going to be funded.

Labour did this from 2002, running a significant budget deficit for current expenditure and borrowing to plug the gap. It's a bit cruel to offer people public services that aren't sustainable from a funding perspective, because at some point they're going to have to be taken away again.

Tax increases never yield commensurate returns. You could try, but the likelihood is that you're almost certainly going to have divert money from other departments to meet Labour's proposed spending increases. Which is perfectly reasonable as an approach, but when you get into the detail of it you're in a bit of bother trying to work out where it's coming from. The three biggest areas of government spending are health (Jeremy wants to increase funding), pensions (Jeremy wants to keep the triple lock), and welfare (Jeremy wants to significantly increase its scope).

So after he's implemented significant increases in funding for the three largest departments, where do you find the money to increase the education budget to the extent you need to for his policies? He wants to remove tuition fees as well, which would be another heavy increase in cost (excluding any social impacts like reducing access for poorer students).

It just doesn't add up, in any way whatsoever. The Tories are hardily world class economists, but there's not exactly a choice to make between the two approaches.

[phonics]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-AiM-GXUAA_703.jpg

Marvellous effort. It escalates to a point I didn't think it could every other sentence.

[Boydy]

The way funding is allocated to schools has always seemed like lunacy to me. I see already wealthy schools getting government-funded sports venues while I know of teachers who have to purchase books out of their own pockets. At the current rate in Australia, private schools will get more government money per student than public schools by 2020. I assume there must be a logic to it, but it just seems like madness to have so many schools that are so poorly funded, and so much money going to schools with independent revenue streams.

Is it crazy that I think any school that charges admission fees should be locked out of government funding? They already have a way of making money, after all. I feel like I'm missing something, to be honest, because it just seems so obvious that it could only be missed for very good reasons.

I don't think that's crazy.

[Disco]

It's like the ravings of a lunatic (golf courses?) or something off Brass Eye.

[Shindig]

I also understand the cold, hard logic behind the North / South divide, sadly. Spend more on the south because their cost of living is higher. Get more southern plebs in work because they'll provide more for the treasury in tax and generally spend more money. Spend in the North if you want some figures to look good. Spend in the South if you actually want cash back.

[Lewis]

Its pretty much just Jimmy, Lewis and GS that are the Tories, isn't it? Admittedly they make up most of the posting in here.

I vote for them as the least rubbish party, and had the referendum gone the wrong way I would probably have sat this one out in a sulk.

[Shindig]

You were sitting and sulking anyway. You still out of work?

[Lewis]

I am, but I'm well past sulking about it.

[phonics]

The party of the job creators.

[GS]

You jest, but it's a necessary evil.

Imagine the carnage if Corbyn implemented his policies. Slashing the tax base whilst massively increasing spending. :drool:

[Boydy]

http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2017/04/not-enough-money.html

[Lewis]

Theresa May's Conservative Party is on fifty per cent with ComRes. I expect the eventual result to be nearer to forty than fifty (beating 1997 would be nice), but fucking hell the protests on the Saturday after. :drool:

[GS]

Fifty percent. :D

As well as this. Fucking hell, it really could be a massacre.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-CwBwnXkAEs_eb.jpg

[Lewis]

I saw a Jock poll earlier (albeit using a small sample) that had them on thirty-two up there. Progressive Majority.

[GS]

There's an exclusively Jock poll out tomorrow that has the Tories SURGING, apparently. There's no details as yet beyond the below, but presumably it'll be out shortly:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-CxfR3W0AE2C10.jpg

[Lewis]

Team Krankie getting anything less than fifty per cent will be the biggest kick in the bollocks possible.

[GS]

If they lose five or six seats, it might be quite hard for them to claim MANDATE. An erosion of the vote share and a handful of losses is the best you can hope for up there.

[GS]

Meanwhile, here (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/22/dont-believe-theresa-may-election-wont-change-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw) we have the European Parliament's chief negotiator throwing a wobbly and attempting to influence a national election in a member state. :harold:

We should have a national holiday when we leave.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

Fifty percent. :D

As well as this. Fucking hell, it really could be a massacre.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-CwBwnXkAEs_eb.jpg

The impending facebook meltdowns against old people will be worth the wait.

[phonics]

Do we have to have the polls? It's so dull. It's like if football arguments were based around xG.

[GS]

Lads. We're into surreal territory here:

855882636371398656

[GS]

Apologies for the storm of posts lads, it's not deliberate. This, however, could be fucking spectacular if it holds until election day:

855883991324479488

[Lewis]

Meanwhile, here (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/22/dont-believe-theresa-may-election-wont-change-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw) we have the European Parliament's chief negotiator throwing a wobbly and attempting to influence a national election in a member state. :harold:

We should have a national holiday when we leave.


As with the referendum, which many European leaders saw as a Tory cat fight that got out of control, I have little doubt many on the continent see this election as again motivated by the internal machinations of the Tory party.

Theresa May: 'Some cat; some fight.'
*entire English-speaking world marks out*

[randomlegend]

Imagine how boring your life must be to get as excited as GS does over this shit.

[Lewis]

Go bum a roulade mate.

[randomlegend]

Hopefully it'll be FUCKING SPECTACULAR.

[GS]

Politics is interesting. General elections with the sort of implications this one has especially so.

[randomlegend]

Apologies for the storm of posts lads, it's not deliberate. This, however, could be fucking spectacular if it holds until election day:


Interesting perhaps, but you're practically climaxing in this one.

[GS]

If you want to know why I care about the Scottish poll, it's because the last thing that Northern Ireland needs is more constitutional agitation from the Scots. It just gives succour to the Shinners, and the inevitable civil war that would unleash itself if there was a serious danger to the border. It's already been dreadful because they increased their vote by 3.9% in the last assembly election.

[Spikey M]

Imagine how boring your life must be to get as excited as GS does over this shit.

You make Cholcolate and post pictures of it on the internet.

[Offshore Toon]

Nobody on this board has any right to judge how somebody spares their free time. There were a few times where I looked forward to playing FM and browsing this place. How sad is that? GS' polls are much more interesting than RL's chocolate, too.

[Offshore Toon]

Chocolate > politics.
Maybe if we could eat the chocolate, you'd have a point.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Spikey M]

And you think that's not sad?

[Shindig]

We've all failed. Every single one of us. At least we're not ISIS.

[Offshore Toon]

I definitely spend more time chatting on Facebook than here, but that's only because the board is DYING.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Spikey M]

I definitely spend more time chatting on Facebook than here, but that's only because the board is DYING.

What'sApp killed the forum star.

[Offshore Toon]

Nope but then I've probably relied on this place more than most over the years for personal shit so maybe it's a different thought process to yours. I might not be well received at times but I love the lot of you for that.

:nodd: The sad part is you've all done more for me than most people in my life. That part is sad but nothing I'm ashamed of. Thankful for it.
We've all benefited in some way from the relative (though lessening) anonymity and this place not actually being 100% wankers.

[Lewis]

Not since they all defected to WhatsApp.

[randomlegend]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15240329.Ukip__39_s_new_Scots_candidate_backs_guil lotines__castration_and_flogging_____and_you_shoul d_hear_her_views_on_gorillas/

Now THAT is spectacular.

[Lewis]

The Communist Party of Britain (Not the Communist Party of Great Britain, or the Communist Party of Great Britain [Marxist-Leninist]) endorsing Labour for the first time in history is pretty funny. What was it about Clement Attlee and Michael Foot that put them off?

[Smiffy]

.....

[Shindig]

Don't think there's any danger of that here. The pit lot will be backed by the students to stay Labour.

[phonics]

Swansea will remain a pointless seat where everyone gets 20% and they split the seat. I never understood how it worked and never cared to tbh.

[Smiffy]

.....

[GS]

New Scottish poll out this evening on independence. You can decide for yourself how reliable it is, but the headline figures are:


The Brexit issue does not appear to have given wings to the independence movement, according to Kantar's survey of 1,060 adults carried out after Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for a referendum to be held in autumn 2018 or spring 2019.

Of those interviewed, only 26 percent thought an independence vote should be held on either of those dates, while 18 percent thought it should take place later. But 46 percent thought there should be no referendum at all.

Kantar found that of those who said they would be certain to vote in any independence referendum, 55 percent would vote against it, while 37 percent would vote in favor and another 8 percent were undecided.


Full story: here (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-idUSKBN17Q2F4?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuter s+World+News%29)

Effectively a 60/40 split when undecideds are removed. It'll be interesting to see if that holds in any way in the coming months.

[Bartholomert]

Nope but then I've probably relied on this place more than most over the years for personal shit so maybe it's a different thought process to yours. I might not be well received at times but I love the lot of you for that.

:nodd: The sad part is you've all done more for me than most people in my life. That part is sad but nothing I'm ashamed of. Thankful for it.

This is a good post.

[phonics]

Arron Banks has cucked it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's such a tit. This election has come far too soon for him to have his ego vehicle mobilised and so he's crying off.