The Betting Thread

[Reg]

In play

£1
Man City 2-1
@11

Edit- 40p on 3-2 City in case it's a classic.

[Baz]

I want to bet AGS/FGS/LGS on a specific player in the Montenegro/Kazakhstan game on Saturday, but can't find any sites that are listing individual players. Will it be more likely closer to the time?

If not, if I go into Betfred round the corner from my house and ask them is it likely they'll give me odds?

[Weaver]

I want to bet AGS/FGS/LGS on a specific player in the Montenegro/Kazakhstan game on Saturday, but can't find any sites that are listing individual players. Will it be more likely closer to the time?

If not, if I go into Betfred round the corner from my house and ask them is it likely they'll give me odds?

Sky Bet, William Hill and Betfred have odds online for those markets.

[Baz]

Sky Bet, William Hill and Betfred have odds online for those markets.They weren't on when I posted. Cheers. :thbup:

If Kuat scores we party.

[-james-]

Kosovo +2.5 :nodd:

[Max Power]

£3 on Georgia at 11/1

[Max Power]

Cunt misses a one on one

[Max Power]

All over the Welsh here this is mad. Hit the bar now

[-james-]

It's nearly half time and Lithuania haven't drifted an inch from their 1.14 opening price in what has been a fairly even half. :sherlock:

[Mellberg]

£30 on Benteke to score first and Palace to win @ 7

[Mellberg]

And £10 on the draw in Chelsea game @ 26 with 25 minutes left.

[Boydy]

26? It's 40 on Betfair exchange.

[Mellberg]

Shit anyway. I put the bet on a bit earlier than the post, which is why I specified with 25 minutes left.

[Reg]

£3 Copenhagen @4.50
£3 Over 2.5 Leverkusen-Spurs @1.80

[-james-]

It's nearly half time and Lithuania haven't drifted an inch from their 1.14 opening price in what has been a fairly even half. :sherlock:

http://www.timesofmalta.com/mobile/articles/view/20161017/sport/overwhelming-evidence-of-dodgy-betting-ahead-of-malta-match-mfa.628281

hehe

[Reg]

Arsenal, West Ham, Liverpool, Newcastle, Aston Villa five-fold (using BetVictor so money back if 4/5 win).

£5 @8ish.

[Baz]

The Reid's informed me you can get £7500 from a quid by picking fifteen BTTS onm the Betfred Goals Galore Bonus coupon. The internet suggests its actually £5000, but it's still worth a punt. Will walk over later.

[Max Power]

£10 on Brighton/Scunthorpe double at 5.9.

[Adamski]

The Reid's informed me you can get £7500 from a quid by picking fifteen BTTS onm the Betfred Goals Galore Bonus coupon. The internet suggests its actually £5000, but it's still worth a punt. Will walk over later.

When was the last time he posted on here? I think you can just say 'my mate...' now.

[Baz]

He views as a guest.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Bank of Merkel has come in :drool:

First time in ages. Might try at the Banque de Merde (unders in France) later, it looks primed for it tonight.

[Boydy]

The Bank of Merkel has come in :drool:

First time in ages. Might try at the Banque de Merde (unders in France) later, it looks primed for it tonight.

How much did you win?

[Jimmy Floyd]

240 off 10. I feel like it comes in more often than once in 24, but it probably doesn't.

[Reg]

Some Chelsea-Man Utd bets:

50p Hazard to score 2 or more @10
£1 Draw/Draw HT/FT @5
50p Ibrahimovic scorecast 1-1 @29

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I was about to put £10 on 0-0.

£5 on United
£5 on Rashford to score the next goal.

[Reg]

Arsenal, West Ham, Liverpool, Newcastle, Aston Villa five-fold (using BetVictor so money back if 4/5 win).

£5 @8ish.
Just Arsenal who failed to win (they were at 1.22, dammit!) so I got the £5 back as bonus funds.

I've put it on a 5-fold for next weekend of Brighton, Derby, Ipswich, Aston Villa and Newcastle @42.

Also £1 on a double for midweek of Preston and Sunderland @48. My 'reasoning' being that Preston have done well lately and that the other teams will rotate for the League Cup.

--
So err... Preston lost 6-0. But the weekend 5-fold is definitely happening!

[Max Power]

£10 on Arsenal -1 at 2.2

[Bernanke]

Nice tomorrow looks really good value, especially with Balotelli back.

[Bernanke]

Nice look immense. :drool:

[Reg]

£1 on Nainggolan first goalscorer @15

[Reg]

£5 Barcelona and BTTS @3.8

[Bernanke]

I'm riding this Nice form all the way until it burns me.

Edit: Oh well.

[Jeet]

Horse Racing -
Breeders Cup for tonight:

23.35 Songbird 11-10

& a double with 22.05 Dortmund 11/10 also

[Jimmy Floyd]

Sevilla +1 at odds against.

[Reg]

I've got 2-2 @12, but also had to go with Sevilla @4.50 because the odds seemed too good.

[Smiffy]

.....

[wullie]

http://i.imgur.com/boG847k.png

I only bet on important stuff nowadays. Got Danny Mac to win Strictly at 8/1 too

[Jimmy Floyd]

I had a good look at 3/1 last night and then thought nah, Hillary will win.

[Boydy]

I had £20 on at 5.7. Put that on after I got home from work int he early evening. It went out to 12 at one point still quite early in the night. I contemplated sticking some more on then but chickened out.

[wullie]

When I put mine on I thought the odds would come right down but I didn't bank on Trump being allowed to speak out loud between then and now.

[Waffdon]

On overs in England, Malta and France -1 @5

[-james-]

on Czech Republic, England, Romania and Northern Ireland.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Czech look quite long. Norway are minnows these days.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£10 on Poland/Denmark/Slovakia
£10 on England/Czech/France/Germany -5.5.

[Baz]

http://i.imgur.com/boG847k.png

I only bet on important stuff nowadays. Got Danny Mac to win Strictly at 8/1 tooSpeaking of 8/1 that's the odds of Michelle Obama winning the 2020 election. :nod:

Also, I don't watch international football but have to pick one of the games on my usual coupon. Which is more likely to be BTTS in Serbia vs Wales and Austria vs Rep Ireland?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

http://i.imgur.com/3kpsIfN.png

I must be missing something with Walsall, that price seems so damn tasty.

[Reg]

Ireland draw no bet @2.50

I like the look of their defence, or the right side of it at least.

edit- woohoo! Forza app informs me that Ireland [Men] beat Austria [Men].

[Manc]

Real Madrid, Chelsea, Newcastle & AC Milan. £12 for £300.

Well worth a nibble.

[Reg]

Djokovic 2-1 @3.75

Liked the look of those odds.

[SvN]

Everton fucked me for about £200 today. The total twats.

[Manc]

Real Madrid, Chelsea, Newcastle & AC Milan. £12 for £300.

Well worth a nibble.

Bottled it for £90.

[Manc]

£7 on every team to score for £200.

[Reg]

in play

Real Sociedad @5

Very much on top v Barcelona.

[Shindig]

Yesterday was Mick Lowes' last match commentating for BBC Radio Newcastle. I sensed that'd been coming with him missing more matches due to illness but his voice will be missed. Now who's going to say, "Yeah, I agree." whenever John Anderson goes off on one?

[Baz]

50/1 on Skybet. :(

[Manc]

Monaco, Liverpool, Torino, Newcastle. £20 for £100.

Safe as houses.

[Reg]

Real Madrid @4.5

[Jimmy Floyd]

On that also, mad odds.

[-james-]

I am similarly perplexed by this Real Madrid price. Fancied them last night when line was +0.75, so got to be on now they've drifted quarter of a goal further.

[Waffdon]

£50 in play offer on 365. No idea what my bet will be as I don't fancy many goals.

Spurs game

[Waffdon]

Under 2.5 goals in Dundee United/St Mirren at 2.35 is the most generous odds I've seen since Anzhi

[Reg]

£2 on each of:

Bournemouth @2.875
Man City @3

[-james-]

Came pretty close last week so I've gone for double the odds this week, will go 0/7

https://i.sli.mg/12DeN3.png

[Baz]

If every 3pm kickoff is goals galore, The Reid wins £96k off a quid. :D

[Reg]

£2 on each of:

Bournemouth @2.875
Man City @3
Following this mighty profit I've gone with ...

£1 on each of:

Southampton @3.60
Man City-Burnley draw @7.50
Middlesborough-Leicester draw @3.125

[Smiffy]

I hate to after event but here's my story of the hour.

Stuck a £30 double on the tennis out of boredom.

Cashed out.

http://s30.postimg.org/ciwb3kp1d/screenshot_703.png

Brengle was looking good in fairness.

So I stuck rounded the cash out up and stuck a little on her.

http://s30.postimg.org/dz7tlpry9/screenshot_704.png

But each time she would match Serena's serve. So I thought sod it, I'll have a speculative punt.

http://s30.postimg.org/7dv3lyc3l/screenshot_705.png

Lucky bastard, you're thinking? Well, the in play changes too fas and in the midst of trying to stick one on, it would appear I doubled up unintentionally. :cool:

http://s30.postimg.org/nddr5i85d/screenshot_706.png

:D

Bonus.

[Boydy]

http://i64.tinypic.com/2janmon.jpg

:rave:

[-james-]

Tammeka Tartu in play at the moment are a large bet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

African Nations outright. I don't know why Algeria and Egypt are as long as 15/2 (inexplicably level with Cameroon and outside both Senegal and the IC). I'd have those two as joint favourites.

For a longer option, Mali at 22/1 is much too long. The market probably thinks Ghana (9/1) are still good, but they aren't. Burkina Faso 28/1 also on the long side.

[Offshore Toon]

Are any English channels going to be showing ACON?

[Baz]

Needs its own thread so we can all mourn/lol at the loss of Mane and Liverpools collapse.

[Weaver]

Are any English channels going to be showing ACON?

British Eurosport are, and they've got an offer on their website for 'Eurosport Player', £19.99 for a year.

Might be worth doing depending on which devices can be used.

[Offshore Toon]

Hmm I think I'll just rely on streams. Burkina Faso v Cameroon later should be good.

[-james-]

Just noticed Hong Kong FC are 7-0 down to last year's champions Eastern Salon.

Quite funny. HKFC are just a bunch of ex-pats who play after work for a laugh. Basically a bunch of pub league players who have gone over to become PE teachers or whatever and accidentally got promoted to the top division because the tier below is Chinese men who are half their size and/or fixing every other game.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£10 on Rashford NGS @ 5.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Plugging at the four aways, as Larkin would have it: Luton, Barnsley, Swansea and Bournemouth. 30/1 or so.

[Manc]

I've gone for a long shot. Bolton, Swansea, Norwich and Burnley. £8 returns £600.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£20 on Newcastle/Brentford/Brighton/Wycombe. Returns 99.42
£20 on Arsenal/Atletico/Las Palmas/Napoli. Returns 98.37
£11.54 on Dries Mertens FGS @ 3.75.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Newcastle are dicks.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Napoli with a 95th minute winner :drool:

[Weaver]

Stuck £5 on Leeds @ 7/1 at 1-0 down last night for £40 - I said they'd win to one of my mates so I put my money where my mouth was at HT.

I've been winning small but regular amounts recently, withdrawing more than I've deposited a few weeks in a row now.

[Reg]

£2 double of Brighton and Leicester/Chelsea draw. Returns £17.10.

[Baz]

Today's the day I win my goals galore bonus (£7500 off a quid) bet, lads. All 3PM, no BPLSBB. :drool: Would be perfect if it wasn't for Dumbarton vs Hibs.

15xBTTS
sheff wed vs Huddersfield
Portsmouth vs Leyton orient
Dumbarton vs hibs
Bolton vs Swindon :stamford:
Shrewsbury vs Bradford
Wycombe vs Yeovil
Preston vs Brighton
Oldham vs gillingham
Port vale vs mk dons
Brentford vs Newcastle
Rotherham vs Norwich
Chesterfield vs Coventry
Birmingham vs Nottm forest (Baz's NAP)
Charlton vs Milwall
Southend vs Rochdale

[Reg]

Draws in Utd-Liv and Real-Sevilla
£4 double @13.26

[Boydy]

Draws in Utd-Liv and Real-Sevilla
£4 double @13.26

I like the sound of this. Fiver on at 12.87.

[Boydy]

Tenner on Nice at evens against Metz. It's 0-0 at half time.

[Boydy]

Tenner on Nice at evens against Metz. It's 0-0 at half time.

It finished 0-0. :moop:

[Reg]

We were close Boydy. :(

[Boydy]

Ah shit. :(

[Reg]

Underdog doubles:

Evans (3.75) & Karlovic (3.75) - £2 returns £28.13
Zverev (3.2) & Ferrer (2.6) - £2 returns £16.64

The Zverev price is the most intriguing. I do think Nadal will probably beat him but it isn't the easiest to call.

[Boydy]

http://i66.tinypic.com/2j0b01t.png

Rochdale, with the best home record in League One, lost fucking 4-0 to Oxford United. Fuck's sake.

[-james-]

Deep on Totteringham.

[Waffdon]

Let down for the fourth week in a row on the five fold by one team. Sheffield United this time after Newcastle (twice) and Man Utd

[-james-]

Well this is awful.

[-james-]

Thought I'd check up on my outrights.

http://i.imgur.com/pgQdEi7.png


:huhu:

[Baz]

Crazy stakes but fucking hell.

[Foe]

Lord. That's looking tasty Dino.

Anyone got any bets today, I've gone for a 90/1 accumulator long shot.

Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield, Burnley, Doncaster, Forfar, Livingston and BTTS in Rotherham v Barnsley.

[Max Power]

Monaco 6/1 :cab:

[-james-]

Swansea and West Brom seem far too big tonight.

[Waffdon]

Thought Burnley looked the most bizarre. Their home form is incredible and Leicester are obviously a shambles.

[Reg]

£1.73 on Burnley & Chelsea double. Returns £15 and change.

[Baz]

Tempted to put my life savings on Burnley. 9/5

[Max Power]

Us as favourites away to Burnley is scandalous :D

[Baz]

£40 on Burnley (7/4 now :moop: )
£10 on Liverpool 1-0, Milner to score (60/1)

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Played for the Burnley mini train, chaps.

Wish I had gone in :(

[Baz]

Adam Etches to win by KO 3/1 :dust:

:train:

LOST ON POINTS
I feel like SincereTheRebel

[Reg]

£5 Huddersfield @2.2
50p Swansea @15
£1 Swansea-Man City draw @7

[Reg]

Longshot £5 treble of Man Utd + next week Stoke and Burnley.

Burnley will probably lose but they're at 9.something and at home.

[mo]

Oxford at evens away at Swindon or 12/5 to win to nil. Free money, basically.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£5 on Hull @ 11
£5 on Hull and BTTS @ 19
£5 on Grosicki AGS @ 5.5.

[Max Power]

£10 on Draw at HT 2.75

[-james-]

Just spent a couple of weeks watching every 2. Bundesliga game this season and compiling a hell of a spreadsheet. Hopefully not been a massive waste of time. A couple of small bets this weekend to test the waters:

Dynamo Dresden DNB at 1.74
Bochum +0.5, +1 asian at evens.

[Foe]

What does your day-to-day job actually look like Dino?

Do you just rumble through stats and team news, or is there something a bit more mathematical probability behind it?

Is it solely football you bet on?

I only ever put on like £5-10 worth of accumulators each weekend and it makes my saturday a bit more exciting.

Do you ever fire on accumulators of tips or is it finding value in singles/doubles?

[-james-]

What does your day-to-day job actually look like Dino?

Do you just rumble through stats and team news, or is there something a bit more mathematical probability behind it?

Is it solely football you bet on?

I only ever put on like £5-10 worth of accumulators each weekend and it makes my saturday a bit more exciting.

Do you ever fire on accumulators of tips or is it finding value in singles/doubles?

Some combination of stats, team news, highlights/streams and tedious spreadsheet data entry mostly. Depends on what's on. I've only recently started dabbling in the more mathsy stuff. Most serious gamblers I know place their bets based on personal judgement rather than what their equations tell them to. I'd like to be somewhere in the middle.

I only do football (and eurovision) but I follow some people who know their shit in other sports.

Just singles, I do accumulators every so often for a laugh if I can be arsed.

[Boydy]

What do you keep in your spreadsheets?

[-james-]

Often just stuff like appearance data, especially where not available readily in one place online. They're generally just for visualising/digesting data though.

[-james-]

Dresden was an extremely poor bet, oh dear. Hoping for more from Bochum tomorrow or it's all going in the bin (maybe).

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd have thought 'the market' has access to all the stats and data it needs, so the only edge presumably comes from insider knowledge or exceptional judgement.

If there was any liquidity for side markets on domestic first class cricket I'd bloody clean up ffs.

[-james-]

I'd have thought 'the market' has access to all the stats and data it needs, so the only edge presumably comes from insider knowledge or exceptional judgement.

If there was any liquidity for side markets on domestic first class cricket I'd bloody clean up ffs.

It'll be interesting to see. I do alright on the most mainstream stuff going so I'm fairly confident it'll be worthwhile long term, spreadsheet upkeep shouldn't be more than a few hours a week. Should more of a level playing field in terms of availability of data/heuristics compared to the premier league anyway.

I imagine a lot of the betting will occur early on, when liquidity is small (too small for the deepest pockets/sharpest money to bother). But then limits are so huge in the 12 hours prior to kick off that I think it takes a good 6 figures to move a price much. I'm sure Tony Bloom's lot and their PhD have their mitts on this stuff but I wonder how much value there will be left after them. Or even provided by them where opinions clash.

[Kikó]

I was reading the Numbers game and it says football is one of the poorest things to bet on as the probability of the favourite winning is much lower than in other similar sports (e.g. basketball). I'd bin it off Dino and delve into something that's a little less stacked against you.

[-james-]

That issue can be solved by not exclusively betting on favourites.

It's a bad sport for betting on because of random shit like red cards and penalties and the worse team scoring happen, but I know a lot more about it than Badminton. It being pretty impossible to get your money on minor sports with any reliabilty is probably a bigger factor though.

The only alternatives really are things like tennis, NBA or horses, and I have neither a desire nor a clue where to start.

[SvN]

My biggest success in football was laying the correct scores. If you've got a 4 figure bank to start with, you can clean up as long as you're sensible about managing your stake and what you bet on.

The NBA when I was a student was my favourite betting period though. With very little real knowledge, it became so clear to me when momentum suddenly swung in the games - especially when the favourite was behind. I remember a Cavs game where I won a few grand by backing at 100/1 when they were down by 20 odd in the fourth, because you could sense that as soon as they got a few turnovers in a row, they'd turn it around.

[Jimmy Floyd]

There's nothing more amusing/bewildering than casually being in a Betfair football market with £10 or £20 on and suddenly you hear the galloping of hooves and it's Lord Chunkington dumping £200,000 on the opposite way to you.

[Reg]

CL outright

£10 PSG @7

[Baz]

Put a treble on:
CL winner, FA Cup finalist, relegated: Leicester

[Weaver]

The Bet365 £50 free bet offer is on for Bayern vs Arsenal tonight, if anyone cares.

[Foe]

The Bet365 £50 free bet offer is on for Bayern vs Arsenal tonight, if anyone cares.

Shoved £20 on over 0.5 goals.

Can I put the risk free bet on 0-0 / no goal scorer or will that bork the system?

[Offshore Toon]

You can, yeah. They say you can't, but everybody does it.

[Foe]

You can, yeah. They say you can't, but everybody does it.

I've just shoved £3 on at 15 on WilliamHill.

So If it's 0-0 I'm up £22.
It it's not 0-0 I'm down about £2.50, but I've still got my free in play bet which I'll probably chuck on Lewandowski to score.

[Boydy]

I haven't used my bet365 account in ages. Turns out I had a limit set on deposits for £25 a day so I've only got £25 on over 0.5. Not sure what I'll go for with the free in-play bet.

[Offshore Toon]

Why don't you just do the £50? You can't lose. The safest option is along the same lines as Foe. £50 on over 0.5 on Bet365, then £5 on 0-0 somewhere else. Then you've got £50 to stick on whatever you want in-play.

[SvN]

Shoved £20 on over 0.5 goals.

Can I put the risk free bet on 0-0 / no goal scorer or will that bork the system?

Doesn't an own goal fuck you over in that situation?

[Foe]

Just testing the water with this one to make sure I don't make an arse of it.

[Boydy]

Why don't you just do the £50? You can't lose. The safest option is along the same lines as Foe. £50 on over 0.5 on Bet365, then £5 on 0-0 somewhere else. Then you've got £50 to stick on whatever you want in-play.

What? I can't put any more than £25 into my account at the minute because of a limit I set myself ages ago.

I've removed the limit but it takes 24 hours for that to come into effect.

[Offshore Toon]

I meant Foe.

[Reg]

£5 Bayern and BTTS-No @2.3

[-james-]

Bayern are too short tonight I think. Results have flattered in the league recently and this feels like exactly the type of game Arsenal show up for. Had a little on +1.5.

[-james-]

I haven't used my bet365 account in ages. Turns out I had a limit set on deposits for £25 a day so I've only got £25 on over 0.5. Not sure what I'll go for with the free in-play bet.

They don't credit you with a free bet, you use your own funds and they refund it if it loses.

[Mellberg]

Put £50 on Bayern as the refundable bet @ 1.4

Gone big for the freebie with 4-1 @ 13

[Reg]

Free in play

£5 Bayern 3-1 @5

[Weaver]

Three mates had BTTS in the First Half there, combined £825 or something like that.

[Foe]

Lewandowski.

:cool:

Will keep an eye out for these bets again and go balls deep.

[Offshore Toon]

Mellin must be fucking shitting himself right now.

[Boydy]

I meant Foe.

Oh, I thought it was at me because of the 'same lines as Foe' bit. My bad.

Anyway, I just woke up and haven't placed my in-play bet yet. Is it still available? I can't find where it is.

[Boydy]

They don't credit you with a free bet, you use your own funds and they refund it if it loses.


Oh, I thought it was at me because of the 'same lines as Foe' bit. My bad.

Anyway, I just woke up and haven't placed my in-play bet yet. Is it still available? I can't find where it is.

That solves that riddle.

[Foe]

Melin ain't no melon.

[Foe]

Hope he cashed that puppy out.

[Mellberg]

No :moop:

Was £430 last time I checked.

[Foe]

Olympiacos, Ludogrets and Ajax/Warsaw BTTS at 9.something treble.

Just to give the games tonight a bit of interest.

[Foe]

Olympiacos, Ludogrets and Ajax/Warsaw BTTS at 9.something treble.

Just to give the games tonight a bit of interest.

Off to a flier. :moop:

[Baz]

Blackburn @ 12 seems a bit big. £50!

[Weaver]

I've got £1.50 on Sutton 1 Arsenal 0 for tomorrow @ 50/1, and 50p on Sutton 2 Arsenal 0 @ 100/1. The latter price is now 150/1.

I fancy Arsenal to steamroller them, in reality, but if Sutton score the first goal :drool:

[Weaver]

Sutton 1 Arsenal 0 is now 66/1, and 2-0 is 200/1, but Arsenal's line up looks pretty good so it's not happening.

[-james-]

Someone I know doing it right:

http://imgur.com/a/M6v3X

[Foe]

Throwing £90K about :uhoh:

[Offshore Toon]

The possible loss at any given stage is nowhere near that.

[Baz]

18/1 Vardy to score and Leicester to win.

[Max Power]

Could have given that money to a homeless man you sick fuck.

Worried that Sevilla see us as so shit they aren't even arsed and won't bring home my handicap bets

[Max Power]

They did fuck the handicap. Leicester fucking City

[John]

Raith Rovers will be starting with a midfielder in goal tonight. No idea how long it'll take the bookies to find out and adjust their odds, but there's probably still value in backing against them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What could possibly cause that state of affairs? Do they not have youth team?

[Adamski]

You yuppies and your youth teams. Raith have barely got 22 legs in their first team.

[John]

Every goalkeeper at the club is injured and they've already used all available emergency loans.

[Waffdon]

I'm tempted but Ayr are fucking awful

[-james-]

Even their youth team have been fielding trialists in goal lately. Price has moved a fair bit so not sure it's worth it any more. Ayr are indeed wank and missing a few of their own (outfielders).

[-james-]

Scrap that.


https://twitter.com/KCrawfordBBC/status/836660514935668736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Baz]

It's not on Skybet.

[Max Power]

0-0 at HT :D

[-james-]

Anyone want an 11% interest savings account?

http://i.imgur.com/7PO2jpW.png

[Jimmy Floyd]

Who the hell wants to part with two grand that badly to lay him up at 1.1?

I laid Raith at 4.2 for fairly big money, nice one John.

[Baz]

Tenner on the following:

Roberto Firmino to score first and either Liverpool to win 2-0 or Liverpool to win 2-1 @ 25/1
Mesut Ozil to score first and Arsenal to win 2-1 @ 100/1
James Milner to score a brace @ 28/1
Jamie Vardy (vs Hull), Joe Allen (vs Boro) and Christian Benteke (vs WBA) to score 1st [void if any player doesn't start] @ 400/1

Hoping on the bottom two. :baz:

Saw this on offer too: Bellew to be knocked down in Round 1 and 2 and Haye to win by KO in Round 3 @ 25/1 :lol: I don't think so.

[Kikó]

Paddy power has evens for Haye to win in 1-6. Up to £50. Free money.

Where's that offer Baz? Edit: not that I'm backing out now that I've read it.

[Baz]

Where's that offer Baz? Edit: not that I'm backing out now that I've read it.
Skybet.

[Baz]

Anyone going balls deep in Cheltenham next week?

I know nothing but plan on asking lots of old blokes at work for any tips.

There's a price boost (9/1) for Noel Fehily to finish as top jockey. Anyone know?

Sky has this offer on:


How to Claim

Place a bet on the 1.30 Cheltenham- Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
If your horse loses we will refund all win singles and the win part of each-way singles as a free bet up to £/€20 within 24 hours.
E.g. A £10 each-way bet (£20 total stake) would receive a £10 refund.
This offer only applies to your FIRST BET, on a horse that runs, placed on the 1.30 Cheltenham between 20:00 Wednesday 1st March and 13.30 Tuesday 14th March.

[Boydy]

http://i66.tinypic.com/rw49id.jpg

The second one's just won.

One more goal in Celta Vigo - Krasnodar, Olympiacos - Besiktas and Schalke - Borussia Munchbunch will bring the other one in.

[Boydy]

The other one's not gonna happen. Posting it here jinxed it.

[Smiffy]

Oof. Juventus penalty in the 90th minute just netted me a decent in-play double Brighton +2 and Juventus win when 1-1.

Anyone got any picks for tomorrow?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I lost out on £100 off a fiver on Leverkusen missing the last minute penalty, thanks guys.

[Boydy]

Leverkusen fucked me over on £80 or so off a tenner. Other teams were Juventus, Espanyol and Brighton. Useless krauts.

[Baz]

Alex Ferguson to win the Cheltenham opener.

[Baz]

Spent a long time over the past few days scouring form and jockeys and other boring horse stuff ready to win some money at Cheltenham. I'm only going to back one horse in every race, and all each way. There is one standout (dare I say Baz's Nap?) though, and that's the final race of Day Two (Wednesday) in the Championship Bumper: Irish Roe. Averaging about 25/1 (http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner) at the moment but surely will drop closer to kickoff. I've read and double-checked it against the rest of the field and don't understand why it's not favourite. :scratch:

If you've got a few quid in a betting account, or fancy a flutter, stick a bet on Irish Roe.

[Smiffy]

Cash out? Or let it play. It's a £50 sign up bonus so I have to roll it over x10 so I think £500 means I can withdraw?

http://s28.postimg.org/iz3koxoi5/screenshot_1134.png

[-james-]

Cash out? Or let it play. It's a £50 sign up bonus so I have to roll it over x10 so I think £500 means I can withdraw?

http://s28.postimg.org/iz3koxoi5/screenshot_1134.png

Rolling it over means staking it 10 times over.

[Foe]

Thought I'd check up on my outrights.

http://i.imgur.com/pgQdEi7.png

:huhu:

Scunthorpe are doing a great bottle job. No wins in 9.

[Baz]

841272641910640640

[-james-]

Been passed on some stuff from a guy with a pretty decent record.

Race by race:

Bunk Off Early e/w

Royal Caviar win w/o Altior

Noble Endeavour e/w & Henri Parry Morgan e/w

Petit Mouchoir e/w

Apple's Jade e/w

Genie in a Bottle win

Powersbomb e/w & Burtons Well e/w

[Mazuuurk]

I know fuck all about horses but went on some of those, what the fuck.


EDIT: Tho I accidentally went for just a win on some of them instead of E/W I think... Which I suppose fucks it all.

[Mazuuurk]

Been passed on some stuff from a guy with a pretty decent record.

Race by race:

Bunk Off Early e/w

Royal Caviar win w/o Altior

Noble Endeavour e/w & Henri Parry Morgan e/w

Petit Mouchoir e/w

Apple's Jade e/w

Genie in a Bottle win

Powersbomb e/w & Burtons Well e/w


I know fuck all about horses but went on some of those, what the fuck.

EDIT: Tho I accidentally went for just a win on some of them instead of E/W I think... Which I suppose fucks it all.


Well, I've no real idea what happened here, but I ended up with more money in my betting account than before I placed them all, so cheers :D

[Baz]

I'm having a shocker. :nono:

841709599866654720

842070246357913600

Hopefully the next two days prove to be better.

[Baz]

842442176403501056

:thbdn:

[-james-]

Overs price didn't move until 40 minutes into the first half in Anderlecht - Apoel. :sherlock:


http://i.imgur.com/sRKCseA.png

[-james-]

Whoever was backing that has lost an awful lot. I'm baffled.

[mo]

Bolton's late turnaround netted me £110.57, off a £10 free bet. Cheers Ladbrokes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wales on the long side tonight?

[-james-]

They've come in a lot, Ireland are missing a load of regulars. I've abstained.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm involved sheepside.

[Reg]

£1.50
Defoe 1st goalscorer
@3.8

[Mazuuurk]

Bad day yesterday.

How the fuck does USA not beat Panama? I mean does Panama even have a football team? Fuck.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Masters (it's next week, I'm on early). Normally I back Bubba Watson as a matter of course, but I'm afraid on principle I am unable to back anyone who uses a pink golf ball. Dustin Johnson is the favourite at 5/1 and his form merits it, but 5/1 is too short for anyone to win a golf tournament unless it's peak Tiger (who used to depart the gates at 2/1 or shorter, bless his feline socks).

Rory McIlroy 7/1. I like his chances compared to the equal priced Spieth. McIlroy's had a couple of strong finishes in strong tournaments of late, nice low key preparation, no one's really focusing on him as DJ burns the road, and he'll be a lot fresher than some.

Rickie Fowler 25/1. I hate myself for doing this as it defies all logic. He has an average to poor record here, his one top five being in 2014 when he was top five in all the majors without winning one, but even then the T5 here was his lowest. Last year he missed the cut. AND YET I think he's finally grown up now and I just have a hunch.

Phil Mickelson 25/1. There's no point watching the Masters unless you've backed Phil. The course is made for him, he's a three time winner, he's played some lovely stuff of late and he's Phil the Thrill, he can do anything on a given day. Fuck he's great, just ask him.

Jimmy Walker 80/1 each way. He's the most recent major champion. His form goes up and down even within a tournament (he loves to pull out the triple bogey when everything's going well) but he's played well here before and 80/1 looks awfully long to me.

Ross Fisher 150/1 each way. The odds here seem fair until you consider some of the other utter goons who are also 150/1, like Webb Simpson, and Hideto Tanihara, and Pat 'the Mullet' Perez. Fisher is back for the first time in a while, has been near the top of most things he's entered recently and is bang in form. I'd also think about Soren Kjeldsen at the same price, who was top 5 here last year and putts like a dream.

Steve Stricker 200/1 each way. I'm not sure how he even qualified for this as he barely plays anymore, but experience counts around Augusta. Looking at his record he's played this 15 times, making the cut 10 times including the last 7 in a row. Only a best of T6, but you can't count out OAPs who can putt on this course. Which does not bring us on to...

Ernie Els 300/1 each way. Pure sentimental pick but wouldn't it just be awesome.

People who I think are too short include Jon Rahm 20/1 (will win multiple majors but nobody wins first time at Augusta, ever, except Fuzzy Zoeller 40+ years ago), Jason Day 16/1, Spieth 7/1 (should be 10), and Ian Woosnam 500/1 which is bafflingly short.

[Mazuuurk]

I have no clue what sport this even is.

[Boydy]

Golf. :cab:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Surely everyone has heard of at least one of Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth or The Masters itself.

Sweden have several dons in play as well.

[Baz]

Put a few bets on the Liverpool game to make it more interesting being crammed in a pub full of sweaty manchildren in replica shirts. :sick:

Mane hat-trick, Liverpool win 3-0 @350/1
Mane to score Liverpool win, Can & Barkley to be carded @40/1 (free money, surely?)
Lukaku first goal and Everton win either 2-1 or 3-1 @50/1 (may as well throw my money down a grid)
Firmino first goal and Liverpool to win 2-1 @40/1
Milner to score and Liverpool to win 1-0 @55/1 (pen, obv)
Milner to score @10/3 :cab:

Also had a bet on McAuley to score, as is my usual bet when I watch United vs WBA @ 9/1.

Plus a flutter on a horse, and I would suggest you do the same. 14:50 Navan, Persisten EW @12/1

And had two tiny EW bets on the Masters while Sky is paying to 8th place: Phil Mickelson @25/1 and super Danny Willett @100/1

Not betting now until the Champions League final, hopefully. :yn:

[Offshore Toon]

What's so good about that horse, Baz?

[Baz]

It's just changed hands and meant to be overpriced.

[Baz]

Told you it was free money. Actually missed a bit off as it was also BTTS but still the easiest 40/1 of the year.

[Offshore Toon]

Did the horse come in?

[Weaver]

9th, the big fraud.

[Offshore Toon]

:D

Nice. I'm always tempted by horse tips, so it pleases me when I successfully dodge them.

[mo]

Yeah, not thrilled about the donkey, Baz.

BTTS and Coventry to win at 6/1 is close to coming in.

[-james-]

Horsey stuff I've been passed on for today (Aintree):

14:50
3 Points Win Bristol De Mai at 6/1 BOG

15:25
6 Point Win The New One without Buveur D'air at 13/8

16:05
2 Points Each Way Balnaslow at 9/1 BOG
3 Points Each Way Pacha Du Polder @ 5/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

16:40
3 Point Win Theinval at 13/2 BOG
2.5 Points Win Dandridge 13/2

17:15
2 Points Win Shearling at 6/1 BOG
1.5 points Win Sweetlittlemystery at 11/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

When people talk about 'points', is that a percentage of your supposed bankroll? Or just a purely relative scale of nothingness?

I've added Francesco Molinari for the Masters at 150/1.

[Offshore Toon]

I think its a percentage point, but you can use the scale as 1 = long shot to 10 = banker.

[-james-]

It can be either. Certainly not advocating putting 6% of your money on anonymous horse advice, but by that system if you follow the lot then you should have twice as much on the 15:25 bet than the 14:50 bet.

They're a combination of Declan Meagher's and Tony Ansell's picks if you wish to have a google.

[-james-]

Oh dear.

Three second places. :moop:

[Josh]

Anything for today Dino?

[-james-]

13:40
2 Points Each Way Ice Cold Soul at 12/1 BOG
1 Point Each Way Sumkindofking at 12/1 BOG
1 Point Each Way Crievehill at 33/1 BOG

14:20:
5 Points Win River Wylde at 9/4 BOG

15:25:
4 Point Win Gods Own at 7/2 BOG

16:05:
2 Points Each Way Go Conquer at 9/1 BOG
1 Point Each Way Eastlake at 16/1 BOG

16:50
4 Point Win Constantine Bay at 4/1 BOG
1 Point Win Beyond Conceit at 16/1 BOG

17:15:
2 Point Win Black Op at 7/2 BOG

[Kikó]

Grand national punts anyone?

[Mike]

Got my national bets
Blacklion 14/1 £2.50 EW
The Last Samurai 14/1 £2.50 EW
Vincent 20/1 £2 EW
Pleasant Company 14/1 £2EW
Regal Encore 66/1 £2 EW.

Big spender!

[Offshore Toon]

Not betting this year, but Bet365 are doing the same offer as last year. You get half your money back from e/w bets (up to £125). Last year I bet on about 25 horses and won a few hundred quid out of it. I think you have until midday and you have to be an existing customer.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lord Windermere. 50/1. My entire net worth on it each way.

[Offshore Toon]

We're at a good price. 2.4. I'm gonna put a bit on us -1.5 @ 4.8.

[-james-]

Cause of Causes, Last Samuri, Ucello Conti, Pleasant Company, Tenor Nivernais


I find it's easier to win when you've backed half the field.

[Offshore Toon]

And there's no reason not to with the Bet365 offer!

[Foe]

How's the 2. Bundesliga spreadsheet working for you Dino?

Both my accumulators looked Buckled before half time. Again.

[-james-]

How's the 2. Bundesliga spreadsheet working for you Dino?

Both my accumulators looked Buckled before half time. Again.

It's running at 23% return after 41 bets at the moment, which is definitely higher than can be expected long term, but I'm happy with it.

It's nice and automated now, all I do is watch extended highlights every week and record bits and bobs, then the following week's games are spat out like this:

http://i.imgur.com/5tVvqx5.png

I'm not really big on bets based on stats alone, but it's nice to have that there as a guide. Watching every game is probably the bigger factor in terms of forming opinions.

[Foe]

Does 23% have a net positive?

My five fold is now a Dundee equaliser away from being on. Unfortunately I assumed hearts Dundee would end 0-0 because both have been shite recently. Fuck sake.

[Offshore Toon]

Ended up sticking a quid on Highland Lodge alongside my Newcastle bet.

[Spikey M]

Cocktails at Dawn, Highland Lodge, One for Arthur, Rogue Angel, Thunder and Roses. All £1 Each way bets. Making it rain $$$$$$$

[Offshore Toon]

Backed the wrong Scottish horse.

[Weaver]

The bet365 offer is running for Atletico vs Leicester tomorrow.

I think it'll be a low scoring game but I'm probably going to go BTTS - First Half to try and win THE BIG ONE.

[Offshore Toon]

How long does Bet365 take when you withdraw funds? I know its pretty quick these days, but if I withdraw tomorrow night after the game will I have the funds by close-of-business Thursday?

[Adamski]

Planning a Thursday blow out?

[Mazuuurk]

Seems to be some pretty decent value on Juve tonight. 2.7 or so seems quite good for a home team of fairly solid Juve against fairly shaky Barca.

[Offshore Toon]

Planning a Thursday blow out?
Ye on Friday, but its GOOD Friday so banks won't be piddling about.

[Waffdon]

You'll have money by Thursday, Offy. I'll be piling on Atletico - not even bothering covering myself. Benalouane against Griezmann :D

No idea what to go on tonight.

[Offshore Toon]

You sure? I did think it was within 24 hours, so lets go for it!

Yeah, Atletico seems the way to go, but I'll have to cover myself. Though I may just go with 0-0.

[Reg]

£5 Juventus @2.75

Good price, I think, and should make it more fun - especially as I'd like them to go through.

[Waffdon]

You sure? I did think it was within 24 hours, so lets go for it!

Yeah, Atletico seems the way to go, but I'll have to cover myself. Though I may just go with 0-0.

100% should see the money if you withdraw Wednesday night by Friday morning. Only times it's iffy is weekends.

[Offshore Toon]

Okay, cool. Cheers.

[Mazuuurk]

Really you guys going for Athletico?

Not that they wont win, I guess they will, but 1.3 seems pretty bad odds for anything. I mean, you never ever seem to know with Leicester either, sometimes their whole team just seems to show up against anyone.

[Waffdon]

£50 on them to win rather than covering the 0-0. In play bet is where the money is to be won. Odds are absolute horrendous though.

[Offshore Toon]

I might stick with the 0-0 tactic.

[Mazuuurk]

What does covering the 0-0 mean, actually?

[Mazuuurk]

Also, I'm a little inclined to go with Monaco @4.0 now given that the Dortmund players might be a bit shocked, but it doesn't quite feel right.

[Offshore Toon]

Depends how you do it. You stick pre-match bet on over 0.5, then you can: a) stick some money on 0-0/under 0.5 on another betting site to cover yourself leaving you with a free £50 bet with a possible loss of a few quid or b) stick the £50 in-play net on 0-0/under 0.5 and pray it comes in.

[Mazuuurk]

But the odds for over 0.5 are usually abysmal?

[Boydy]

But the odds for over 0.5 are usually abysmal?

That's the point. The offer is that they match any pre-game bet with a free in-play bet of the same value. So you just want to put the maximum (£50) on something that is (almost) definitely going to come in so you get your money back from that and also get the free bet of the same value.

[Mazuuurk]

Sorry if I'm being daft here, but doesn't that just mean you're out 100 quid, and while you'll likely win about 3-4 quid on the Over 0.5 bet, the other bet will still be whatever liability there is to that bet? Meaning if you lose that bet, you'll have maybe lost 47 quid instead of 50 (and also just risk losing 100 if it's 0-0).

I realize I'm missing something, but what is that?

[SincereTheRebel]

Pre qualifying bet = £50 on over 0.5 goals @1.05
In play bet = £50 Atletico Madrid 3-1 Leicester correct score @12
Potential profit of over £500

The in play bet is refunded if you lose. Chances of a 0-0 are fairly common with atheltcio, but as they are playing at home, the pre match bet is a banker.

Alternatively, the both teams to score int he first half is a much more safer option.

Pre qualifying bet = £50 both teams to score in first half NO @1.12
In play bet = £50 both teams to score in first half YES @6

If both teams do not score in the first half you win around £5
If both teams do score in the first half then you win over £200.