The Betting Thread

[Baz]

He'll get two minimum just tomorrow. Put a tenner on and thank me later. He's 8/1 actually, not 7.

There is an offer on Sky for Jack Kennedy and Paul Townend to have 1-2 2-1 today. Worth a go at 33/1

[Ben]

On that cheers. :thbup:

[Baz]

https://e.issuu.com/issuu-reader3-embed-files/latest/twittercard.html?u=weatherbys&d=cheltenham_-_2022-03-15_-_o_final_plan_02&p=1

[Manc]

Edwardstone & Honeysuckle double 6/1.

[Manc]

Our Power 11/1 ew.

[Manc]

Blackmore double 9/1.

[Waffdon]

Bring on the Night
Couer Sublime
Lostintranslation
Zanahijr
Mrs Milner
Bell Ex One

I’ll have them all in multiples EW alongside a few others. Betting w/o fav was good to me last year

Cracking end to the day. Paddy Power only paying 5 places in store rather than 6 online fucked me out of having Death Duty, Zanahijr, Bell Ex One and Mrs Milner paying out on the Lucky 15.

[Manc]

2151B22 leaves me £70 up. Roll on tommorrow.

[Ben]

Not a fucking sausage today.

Had a right mare the last few days overall with all my Player’s picks bottling it in the final round too.

[Manc]

The Players was an absolute mess. Thoughts for Valspar?

[Ben]

The Players was an absolute mess. Thoughts for Valspar?

Burns for sure. Not looked deeper for now.

[Baz]

Turns out I missed Stattler being tipped antepost at 12s :moop:

On we go. Lad from my betting group has covid and is there. :face: Sent a selfie with Matt Chapman so he’s probably got it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Players was an absolute mess. Thoughts for Valspar?

Knox, Oosthuizen

[Ben]

So I'm on Simpson (66), Tringale (70) and Kizzire (125) as their odds are just too good vs. their stats. Hoffman (150) might be worth a punt too.

The smart money would be on Thomas but I'm siding with Burns (25) instead in the battle of the likely lads.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The smart money is never on 'JT'.

[Ben]

That might burn you this week. :D

But I'm definitely on the Burns train out of the favourites. Schauffele is the spoiler; no appearances at Valspar I believe but it should suit him.

[Don]

Evens :happycry:

[Manc]

Valspar:

DJ 15/1
Fitzpatrick 32/1

[Manc]

Irish clean sweep 14/1.

[John Arne]

In play now. Long An v Pho Hien
Should get Pho Hien at 3/1

Nothing dodgy - just Pho Hien are better than Long An.

[Ben]

On it :cool:

[Don]

No runningball stats? :( Gone in big thanks to last night's winnings.

[Waffdon]

2.10 - Born Patriot, Third Wind, Dallas Des Pic
2.50 - Eldorado Allen
3.30 - Lisnagar Oscar, Song for Someone
4.10 - Spiritofthegames, Coole Cody
4.50 - Love Envoi
5.30 - Smoking Gun NAAAAAP

anymore non runners losing the place offerings and I’ll cry

[John Arne]

Stream for anyone interested.

https://90phut.net/truc-tiep/long-an-vs-pho-hien-1700-04-03/

[Ben]

Pho Hien are shit.

[Don]

Didn't watch but RB stats made it seem like it was a good bet. What a finish too.

Newcastle tonight to save the day.

[Manc]

Paul Townend wants his license revoking for that.

[Baz]

Paul Townend wants his license revoking for that.

Nah he didn’t ask anything. Just bad luck.

[Waffdon]

https://i.ibb.co/3vCcQPh/E7-E8-C022-E2-D8-44-B7-BBDC-ED2-BDA472-A9-A.png

How’s this won :lol:

[Manc]

Looked long to me.

[Baz]

If your bookie offers non runner no bet (NRNB) then for the Turners Novice Chase (first race on Thursday) these two have multiple entries and may switch to this race to try for a place:
Presentandcounting 125/1
Busselton 100/1

Worth a quid each way or whatever. Money back if they race in the Paddy Power Plate anyway, where they’re 33/1 & 12/1 so obviously not rubbish.

Busselton 2nd :harold:

[Waffdon]

Third Wind :drool:

[Waffdon]

The non runners fucking the place for Eldorado Allen has me fuming

[Manc]

Townend almost putting another monster down at the last. Christ.

[Waffdon]

2.10 - Born Patriot, Third Wind, Dallas Des Pic
2.50 - Eldorado Allen
3.30 - Lisnagar Oscar, Song for Someone
4.10 - Spiritofthegames, Coole Cody
4.50 - Love Envoi
5.30 - Smoking Gun NAAAAAP

anymore non runners losing the place offerings and I’ll cry

Jesus Christ. The 1-2. What would I have got for the forecast? :sick:

Apparently Spiritofthegames finished 3rd. Thank god for that

[Manc]

Waff absolutely sweeping up.

[Waffdon]

I put Mighty Blue over Love Envoi with a Yankee that had Coole Cody and Third Wind. Seething.

[Baz]

What a day. :youpi:

[Ben]

Absolute birdie fest at the Valspar already so fuck knows what the winning score will be. Not great for betting.

[Baz]

All EW unless stated:

13:30 Vauban (win), Knight Salute
14:10 First Street
14:50 Minella Cocooner, Classic Getaway
15:30 Chantry House
16:10 Pont Aven
16:50 Concertista, Zambella
17:30 Quinta Do Mar

Also got antepost for Ilikedwayurthinkin (17:30), Ramillies (14:50), Freedom To Dream (17:30), Bob And Co (16:10, including a “Bob double” with Bob Olinger), Mount Ida (16:50), Elimay (16:50), Vauban (13:30 25/1!) & Icare Allen (13:30) so lots of money to be made/lost :drool:

[Manc]

I'm knee deep in Vauban.

[Waffdon]

I’m not very confident for today, but on some of the following in Trixie’s, yankees etc:

1.30 - Knight Salute EW and Icare Allen EW
2.10 - West Cork, Eclair De Be EW, First Street EW
2.50 - Ramilles EW, Green Book EW
3.30 - Tornado Flyer EW
4.10 - Fumet D’douairies EW
4.50 - Pink Legend EW, Zambella EW
5.30 - Earlofcotsworld EW

Think Galvin, Concertisa and Hollow Games all romp home

[Baz]

I'm knee deep in Vauban.

:jayjay:

[Waffdon]

Put money on Felix Desjy when he reached 100/1. Defo has a chance for getting top 6

[Manc]

Ginto for the Albert Bartlett. A Plus Tard for the Gold Cup.

[Waffdon]

You may as well say the fav for every race pal x

[-james-]

Saw Ginto snap there and it's ruined my day. Vile sport.

[Manc]

That was unfortunate.

[Waffdon]

Fumet D’douairies and Pink Legend in the next two to save the day

[Waffdon]

Thought Pink Legend had that :(

[Don]

Been eyeing this up for months now. On Thursday South Korea host us in a WCQ. Both sides have qualified so not too important but both sides will be motivated for the game. South Korea team news I'm not 100% on but they're close to full-strength. Iran are missing 3 key starters. More importantly, Iran continue to look like shit and rely on their 2 front-men who are admittedly elite level to save their asses. South Korea will dominate possession and territory and our defence is a shambles. I can't find any prices yet, I'm expecting 1.9-2.3 for SK at which point I'm unloading heavy.

[Ben]

I followed John in on Vietnam second tier the other day so I’d be rude not to go in on this as well.

[Don]

Taremi (one of our elite 2) has just tested positive for COVID. This would have been glorious but I suspect the price is gonna tumble to about 1.6 now ffs. Handicaps here we go.

[Don]

Jahanbakhsh now fallen to COVID too, anything over 1.5 is still value.

[Ben]

A nice win at the Valspar. Burns was way overpriced at 25. Just missed out on an EW as well but not sure how I can ask my predictor to account for randomers like NeSmith and Riley to play like Ben Hogan for two and a half days.

Match Play this week. Ugh.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I love the Match Play. Always some absolute bolter who comes through, I won an absolute shitload on Victor Perez a couple of years ago.

I'm here for Blandy demolishing all comers.

[Ben]

Depending on odds, I'll probably be on Im, Power and Gooch.

[Don]

https://oddspedia.com/football/iran-south-korea-1265#odds

We eating good on Thursday :drool:

[Ben]

Win outright odds are out for Match Play. Russell Henley @ 55 is just obscene. Going fairly big on that one. My predictor actually has him top of the pile (just above Thomas).

Also going for Im @ 40, Gooch @ 66 and Power @ 110.

Mackenzie Hughes is way overpriced @ 140 so there'll be some good odds on him in his individual matches.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Russell Henley as outright favourite for this would be the work of a fairly eccentric predictor.

I would be all over Cam Smith again except I'm never sure how much he can be arsed with certain events. Might well be interested in his fellow Aussie Lucas Herbert for an outside run, especially if the wind blows. Got to wait for the draw though really.

[Baz]

https://emoji.aranja.com/static/emoji-data/img-apple-160/1f682.png

Destination: South Korea

[Ben]

Smith isn't on the entry list I've got?

Henley is high up in all the stats this year (top 10) and after weighting it for recent form and course he's just a shade above the rest (like almost level with Thomas). Admittedly it doesn't account for weather or bottling it on the big stage and I've never ran it on a match play before so this could go horribly wrong, but I'm well up with it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You're right, he isn't, I was looking at two weeks old list from twitter. Proving my point about how arsed he is, I suppose.

From the top of the market I quite fancy DJ, has bullied the shit out of Austin in the past, and his odds will be better than ever.

[Ben]

No Smith or "Rorz" but the rest are there.

Also on the South Korea train @ 2.25.

[Don]

Ray's lot have bottled it and only allowed me £500 on FT and £150 on -1. Soft shites.

[Baz]

Rozner, kinhult, campillo, lemke, soderberg and valimaki

From Brad Todd’s patreon :sst:

[Ben]

What's everyone's preference for betting on the early rounds of the Match Play? Individual match bets, Lucky 15/31/63, accumulator?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The results are so random that I don't go in too hard on the individual matches, might as well just go and play a fruit machine. Group winners a more interesting bet.

[Manc]

Kisner 45/1
Casey 33/1

8 places EW for both.

[Baz]

The results are so random that I don't go in too hard on the individual matches, might as well just go and play a fruit machine. Group winners a more interesting bet.

Anything in Qatar?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Broberg, if you can get him for three figures

[Ben]

Tringale to win Group 3, Thomas to win Group 6, Henley to win Group 14, Lowry to win group 16.

[Baz]

Spieth and Keegan dishing out gimmes. Might as well play with each others cocks.

[Ben]

I'm surprised my predictor gave either of those two any chance, but 0.83% and 0.36% for two major champions shows where they're at.

[Baz]

It’s an account closer but there’s an easy arb at Sedgefield 16:47 tomorrow.

Tim Pat ran today so only 2 horses left. Back them both to win.
£495 @ 15/8 rule 4 is £1005 back
£315 @ 4/1 rule 4 is £1008 back
£810 staked guaranteed £1005 back

[Ben]

Why have they suddenly started races going off at odd times (ie. not 0 or 5 minute intervals)?

[Manc]

Rozner, kinhult, campillo, lemke, soderberg and valimaki

From Brad Todd’s patreon :sst:

Following on Campillo 55/1 & Valikami 100/1.

[Ben]

Just realised there's an alternate event in Dominican Republic. The field is actually decent. I'm on Hubbard @ 34, Duncan @ 61 and Armour @ 81.

Bollocks to Qatar. Can't find the win outright market on 365 for some reason (because it's started?).

[Don]

Get on Japan before second half kicks off to enlarge the South Korea funds.

I'm up to about £2k staked and will hit 3 if Japan come in :drool:

[Baz]

89’ and 90+4’ :D

[Don]

£100 on SK, Son FGS, Over 2.5 at 21 should have paid out but all went to plan otherwise. £50 to £6K in 3 weeks, I'll start the thread with deets of how you can all pay me £500 this evening.

[Baz]

Easy win. Ta.

[Baz]

It’s an account closer but there’s an easy arb at Sedgefield 16:47 tomorrow.

Tim Pat ran today so only 2 horses left. Back them both to win.
£495 @ 15/8 rule 4 is £1005 back
£315 @ 4/1 rule 4 is £1008 back
£810 staked guaranteed £1005 backThe favourite fell. :happycry: Easy money.

[Baz]

1507346506688442379

[Ben]

I'm going to parrot Henley again. He's not even on the list so he will be long odds yet his SG is way up there (>2 maybe). Lowry too.

[Ben]

DJ is looking good today. He's flying up the stats sheets, I've a feeling he'll be a good bet come the Masters.

[Ben]

Bland :cool:

[Manc]

Kisner. :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Kisner :drool:

That chip shot onto the green at 18 was beautiful.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Kisner is a joke at this event.

Masters is so hard to call. Field gets wider every year. I like Cam Smith...

[Ben]

I'm with you on Smith but DJ is looking better every week now. I might get on him instead if the odds are favourable.

[Ben]

Just had a spy of the Valero Texas Open field list during a meeting and it's completely wide open. Matsuyama is probably the favourite (lol at Rory's odds) but I can't commit money to a guy who invariably leaves his putter in Japan; if he actually does bring it then I would expect him to be up there.

I'm going to go with Chris Kirk and a few others TBD.

[Manc]

Thought we had it with Kisner. We go again.

[Don]

Some tasty picks again tomorrow.

South Korea are once again evens, this time away to UAE. UAE fighting for qualification and likely to need something from this but the gulf in class is too much.

Iraq away to Syria at above evens. Iraq 1 point behind UAE so must win game for them. Syria aren't too shabby but I watched Iraq's last game and their new manager has them playing extremely good, the market hasn't factored that in yet.

Nigeria at above evens against Ghana. They should have won the first leg and there's a serious gulf in class here too. It's African football so you could always get the unexpected or some actual corruption like what the Mali guy did in their qualifier against Tunisia but Nigeria at home should storm it.

I've gone a little greedy and threw a mix of Iran/Japan/France(:cab:) into some accies but money should be made.

[Lofty]

Mon the 6 fold.

[Offshore Toon]

Let's roll.

[Manc]

Followed on the treble.

[John Arne]

I just put a tenner on Vietnam at 20. Away to Japan. Japan nothing to play for, and even though Vietnam are crap - there's always that one time.

[Don]

Japan look like rotating too :moop:

[John Arne]

They are also treating it as a victory parade. Full house, party mode. 1-0 Nam.

[John Arne]

0-1 at halftime to Vietnam :drool:

[Lofty]

1-1

[Ben]

I'm glad I got Chris Kirk at 50/1 yesterday, he's been backed into 30/1 already.

Also just got on Keegan Bradley @ 40/1 and Luke List @ 55/1 (was 80/1 yesterday :().

EDIT: And a small dabble on Luke Donald @ 250/1.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Golf media is too busy on the plane tracker apps trying to work out if tigger is going to ANGC this afternoon.

[Don]

Disaster in Asian football, not only bets flop but we top the group and now have to keep our manager in place for the WC :sick:

[Offshore Toon]

That was some disgraceful tipping yesterday, Taz.

[Don]

Truly. SK and Iraq were good enough performances but I didn't watch Nigeria.

[SvN]

That was some disgraceful tipping yesterday, Taz.

Just looked at the results :D

Some things never change.

[Don]

I'm gutted you missed the last couple before, would stop your missus from asking me for a tenner if nothing else.

[Manc]

Texas Open:

Vegas 45/1
Steele 60/1

[Ben]

Glad I backed out of Matsuyama because his odds weren’t good enough. He’s withdrew.

[Manc]

Stormy Judge 7/1 for the Scottish National. Lump on.

[Ben]

That’ll do me. A bloke in our syndicate who knows his shit is also on it.

[Offshore Toon]

On with EW 2 places.

[John Arne]

Just kicked off. Nothing dodgy, just longer odds than should be.

Can Tho - Khanh Hoa

[Lofty]

Stormy Judge 7/1 for the Scottish National. Lump on.

Choo Choo

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I can't wait to lose my money.

[Manc]

Completely smashed a fence half way round. No chance from thereon in.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've chucked 94p on United to lose 4-1.

[Ben]

Had a T2, T4, T8, T13 and 2x T18 on the Valero. :moop: Only Luke List wasn't close.

Returned more than I staked but that's annoying.

[Baz]

Just done my bollocks on the 365 EW offer (half your stakes back upto £125) as well as doing £50 on the nose for Delta Work.

Edit: Grand National. It’s tomorrow.

[Baz]

Bravemansgame beats Ahoy at Kempton
L'Homme beats Ahoy at Cheltenham
Ahoy beats them both at Aintree

:sorry:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was going through the runners and riders for a reason to choose one, and settled upon this legend:


Harshly described as a "boat" in some quarters for supposed lack of speed, but stamina assured.

Santini it is, 40/1.

[Manc]

If given a more prominent ride I can see Spiritofthegames 16/1 going close in the next. Ran well at the festival and has dropped further down the weights. Previous Aintree winner.

[niko_cee]

I was going through the runners and riders for a reason to choose one, and settled upon this legend:



Santini it is, 40/1.

:D

Running in the dullest colours imaginable as well. All about the Jacques Express!

[Ben]

Bet365 are refunding 50% of stakes up to £250 on EWs on the National so I’ve gone full beans on Any Second Now.

[Baz]

Worth mentioning that offer ended at 11:59 today so don’t try it now.

[Baz]

Gone back in big on Delta Work, EW this time at 14/1

[Baz]

3rd but never in it.

50/1 winner though, love to see it even though I didn’t back it

[Ben]

Bet365 is down lol.

[niko_cee]

Jacques 'The Boat' Santini. :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Slow and steady comes 4th in the race, motherfuckers.

[Ben]

Bet365 is down lol.


You are now in line.
Thanks for your patience.
Your estimated wait time is more than 6 hours...

Pricks.

[Mike]

It’s back up

[John Arne]

There's a fix underway.

Gotta be quick. Viettel v Can tho over 1.5 goals first half.
Currently 40th minute.

Not concrete, but worth a tickle.

[Don]

Market was getting suspended like mad there but when it did re-open, they weren't offering HT markets. Just as well.

[John Arne]

Yeah, watching the game it didn't look too dodgy, but my man in the know said it was on.
Can Tho just too shit to make it happen.

[Don]

Chelse at 3 to beat Real Madrid looks tasty for me tomorrow. Will also be on the -1.

[Ben]

Onto the next one: RBC Heritage.

Hoge, Hadwin, List, Pereira and Young.

[Waffdon]

Chelse at 3 to beat Real Madrid looks tasty for me tomorrow. Will also be on the -1.

8/5 for Madrid with Lottie Cheek and Alonso at wing back looks bonkers

[niko_cee]

Surely James is playing at fullback?

On the other side, the BBC have Valverde lining up as part of a front 3. I thought he was more of a midfielder [no idea whatsoever].

[Waffdon]

I think it’s James at 3rd centre half with Loftus Cheek in front of him as the latter played there against Southampton unless he’s changing it to a back 4.

[Baz]

Kovacic yellow 10/3

Easy, surely.

Was disappointed Rulli was only 6/1 in the important game

[Manc]

RBC:

Kevin Na 40/1
Kevin Kisner 40/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mine for Hilton Head:

Conners 25/1
Horschel 40/1
Wise 100/1
Pan 100/1
Thompson 150/1

Quite like Kis as well but he feels a bit too obvious here.

[Don]

2.7 with possibly no KDB, Walker, Ederson and with a rested XI. Here we go again baby :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Onto the next one: RBC Heritage.

Hoge, Hadwin, List, Pereira and Young.

We have three each in the top 22 going into the weekend, surely something lands here.

[Ben]

We have three each in the top 22 going into the weekend, surely something lands here.

Not a great Saturday for me, might scrape a place or two if it goes in my favour.

[Don]

Liverpool -1 at evens for Tuesday. They just keep giving free money.

[Ben]

I had -1 yesterday. Fuming.

[SincereTheRebel]

Been watching this PSG game for 10 minutes and Guendouzi has been on the floor, a dozen times and not a foul has been called. he is also 1-0 down.

Booked@3

[SincereTheRebel]

Sideshow has been down three times now with two fouls called, and has had a spat with Neymar.

Lash out you cunt.

[SincereTheRebel]

He tried everything to get a card and it didn't happen.

[Ben]

My run of success on the golf will come to a grinding halt this week I feel. If there's one thing my predictor is worse at than match play, it's team play.

It's thrown up just two teams this week: Morikawa/Hovland, who are way too short to bother with so I've just got the solitary bet, on Niemann/Pereira.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I like Team Chile as well. The random American pairings are hard to judge.

[Don]

Shame about the Ronaldo news as those mixed race lads pose more of a threat but 0*x is still 0 innit. Is -4 gonna pay or not, that really is the question.

Edit: Pogba in a midfield 2. Yes is the answer.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm on the Liverpool -2 and -3.

Our team is horrendous.

Edit: Also got on Liverpool to win, have the most corners, most shots on target and United to have the most cards.

[Don]

I fear this may be the final days of these giveaways, take advantage and protect yourselves against the cost of living crisis and recession, kids.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I need a late United card.

Edit: Hannibal :cool:

[Don]

Chelsea is free money. Palace seem decent and whether we add Leicester into the mix will depend on whether they play their Conference League best XI or that shite lineup they played against Newcastle.

[Max Power]

Will be first choice and back ups on Saturday vs Villa I’m sure.

[Don]

Nice. Might cover all the doubles as well as the treble too.

[Lofty]

Awaiting the team sheet but if Martinelli isn't picked up front then yeah stack your cash on Chelsea -1 etc. Not sure the last time Arsenal lost 4 in a row but could see them losing every game to the end of the season with the injury crisis.

[Ben]

Martinelli is made of tracing paper anyway so don’t let him starting influence anything, he’ll be off the pitch after 20 minutes.

[Waffdon]

Chelsea are bang average at home and are starting Lukaku up front with Christensen and Sarr in defence. The score line could be anything I guess but Chelsea average 3 goals a game with Havertz up front and half that with Lukaku

[Manc]

Chelsea is free money. Palace seem decent and whether we add Leicester into the mix will depend on whether they play their Conference League best XI or that shite lineup they played against Newcastle.

Tremendous work.

[Baz]

What does your Newcastle top half bet return Offshore Toon?

[Don]

Tremendous work.

The silence last night was deafening :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The silence last night was deafening :drool:

Free money was -2 yesterday not the paltry -1 you tipped.

[Offshore Toon]

What does your Newcastle top half bet return Offshore Toon?
£1.6k. It was 80/1.

They're offering £135 cash out right now. As if.

[Don]

Chinese teams once again sent essentially U23 squads to the AFC Champions League... some cracking results so far..

Shandong Taishan 0–7 Daegu FC
Urawa Red Diamonds 5–0 Shandong Taishan

Johor Darul Ta'zim 5–0 Guangzhou
Guangzhou 0–8 Kawasaki Frontale

Shanghai Port didn't even both turning up and withdrew, and Changchun Yatai withdraw months ago, giving Sydney a bye to the group stage.

Lion City kick ofd at 12pm against Shandong.

-2 @ 1.66
-4 @ 4.0
-5 @ 7.0

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair sportsbook aren't offering any handicaps (they know) and the Exchange on the market is fucked :(

[Don]

I thankfully couldn't get on either :D

[John Arne]

Rule #1 of ASEAN football.... never trust a Singaporean team to do anything remotely decent. Ever.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Arsenal -1 & -2.

They'll probably have one of their mental games where they can't do anything right or Ronaldo will just save us but it's hard to say no at those prices.

[Offshore Toon]

£329.37 cash out now. I think that's likely the best I'll get, but I'm not cashing out.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Got some money on Liverpool -1 & -2.

[Ben]

Just having an early look at this week's golf. A new course in Mexico so I've got absolutely no course form to go off with my predictor therefore I'm not expecting much (any) success. And because there's no previous course history to use in my predictor, I'm using Greg Norman as the baseline for that instead; partly for a laugh, partly because it's his course and partly because in such a weak field it won't matter much. Even an out-of-form Rahm should win. Although the weak field should give some cracking value bets outside of Rahm.

[Lofty]

Not sure if everyone is getting this but I opened a Bet365 account a few weeks back because their racing odds were vastly superior to Sky and they keep throwing free £5 bets at me. Compared to Sky wanting you to stake £25 a week to get one.

[Baz]

Not sure if everyone is getting this but I opened a Bet365 account a few weeks back because their racing odds were vastly superior to Sky and they keep throwing free £5 bets at me. Compared to Sky wanting you to stake £25 a week to get one.Yep, not only better odds but also offers ‘best odds guaranteed’ upto 48 hours in advance, rather than 9/10am the morning of the race. So placing your bets the night before, you still get best odds if your horses price drifts before the off

There’s a reason people, including me, buy unwanted Bet365 accounts off people. The account used most recently (thanks mum) gave me free £10 bets every week, but I did stake a lot.

[Ben]

I don't use any other to be honest.

[Waffdon]

Yeah, I bet at the bare minimum and I’ve had a free £5 football and horse racing bet for weeks now

[Ben]

Just having an early look at this week's golf. A new course in Mexico so I've got absolutely no course form to go off with my predictor therefore I'm not expecting much (any) success. And because there's no previous course history to use in my predictor, I'm using Greg Norman as the baseline for that instead; partly for a laugh, partly because it's his course and partly because in such a weak field it won't matter much. Even an out-of-form Rahm should win. Although the weak field should give some cracking value bets outside of Rahm.

Odds are out. Rahm is 5/1 which is a little bit of a joke even though he should win. However the knock-on effect is a lot of value elsewhere so I'm on loads of other players.

Not entirely confident given the lack of history on this course so not sure what type of player it will benefit, so using the Greg Norman prototype:
Kirk (30), Wise (35), Jones (50), Knox (60), Pan, Hubbard, Stallings (all 80), Duncan and Rodgers (both 125).

Normally only 5 or 6 are decent enough value so either the lack of a course-specific model or the Rahm effect has extended the list. Duncan in particular is massively overpriced I think.

[-james-]

City -1 asian looks a bit of a gift. Stones fit apparently.

[Don]

I'll join that train even though I'm not sure what the back 4 looks like. Emotional hedge to make tonight bearable.

[-james-]

I think it's Zinchenko Laporte Dias Stones. Was talk of some Jesus RWB nonsense.

[Don]

Cancelo is a big miss still and Vinny vs Stones has put me off given the disgustingly low prices.

[Baz]

I’m on cards for Silva, Laporte, Rodri and Vinicius @ 113/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A little on Madrid and Madrid -1.

It's time for the City bottlejob to begin.

[Ben]

I fancy Madrid like.

EDIT: No I don't.

[Manc]

Woodland 20/1
Champ 33/1

[Don]

Get a fucking load of that Brentford price on Monday.

[-james-]

I'm on Sweden for Eurovision at 8-9ish. Has a good chance of going off favourite I reckon. 4 place 1/4 each way terms should work out as a free bet.

[-james-]

Ukraine is a colossal lay on paper. I would love to bang my "Eurovision is apolitical" drum but fuck knows how that's going to play out really.

[Ben]

I don’t follow Eurovision at all but wasn’t our nil pois a big Brexit fuck you?

[-james-]

Not really, UK entries are always just terrible. This year's is our best for a long time, could well see a top half finish.

[niko_cee]

Aye, the standard of our entries nose-dived after reality tv fame shows became a thing, presumably as a nexus of the dregs rejects being lined up to do the entries and/or aspiring dregs rejects not wanting to sour their tv reality talent show brand by doing Eurovision in the first place.

[Don]

Did someone delete a Marseille bet post from here?

Leverkusen -2 and Bees are bets tonight.

[Offshore Toon]

Aye, Manc.

[Don]

Of all the people :D

[Ben]

As predicted, my run of about 8 weeks with at least an EW on the golf (ignoring the team play bollocks) came to an end in Mexico. Had two just outside the top 5 though which is a shame.

Wells Fargo this week and I'm not seeing a lot. It's a good field but very even. I've gone for Mitchell (50), List (100) and Lashley (140).

EDIT: And Jordan Smith for British Masters.

[Max Power]

Think Forest are a bet tonight at 3.2

[SvN]

Get a fucking load of that Brentford price on Monday.

:D

[Don]

Manc, take a lesson from SVN lad, don't post in here if you're gonna fangirl over me.

[Manc]

du Plessis 40/1 for the British Masters. Homa 40/1 at Wells Fargo.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wells Fargo

Henley 33/1
Knox 80/1
Hickok 175/1
Chacarra 400/1

Belfry

Richard 'Blandy' Bland 30/1
Bjork 70/1
Ormsby 125/1
Guerrier 150/1
Dredge 500/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Madrid -1, Madrid -2, Madrid to qualify and Benz to score 2 or more.

Mon the bottlejob.

[Don]

Wanted City handicaps but no inspiring prices so Over 4.5 for bants.

[Lofty]

Any reason Wolves are 10/1 on Skybet? Chelsea haven't beat them in the last 3 meetings.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Homa :cool:

[Manc]

Never in doubt.

[Ben]

Good shout lads. He was on my shortlist but I discounted him when I saw the odds as my predictor wanted minimum 50/1 for him. Oops.

[Ben]

I'm on Hideki at 25/1 for the Byron Nelson. He never seems to win after a few weeks off (indeed all his wins have come when he's also played the week before) but a lot of stats for this course point his way. Obviously Scheffler in the field throws a spanner but at least it boosts everyone else's odds.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is the one KH Lee won last time? One of my least favourite events.

I am however all over Hurly Long for the Soudal Open. He sounds like a golf-themed porn star.

[Ben]

Yeah that's the one. They've finally managed a sell out though, because it's in Texas and Scheffler is playing.

[John Arne]

Indonesia v Timor Leste.
Just kicked off in the SEA Games.

Timor Leste to score at least 1. #ItsAFix

[Ben]

Indonesia 1-0 up so got on BTTS at 2.2.

[-james-]

There's a good chance Timor score, but I'm not sure it'll be because Indonesia let them. Timor are far more likely to chuck a couple in as I suspect they did in their last game.

[John Arne]

Yup :d My contact says over 3.75, but the game is still quite cagey. Both teams are dodgy as fuck.

[Baz]

Anywhere got odds on Mourinho next Chelsea manager?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd actually love that. We'd come 11th but I'd love it.

[John Arne]

:drool:

https://gyazo.com/20840655ce81087d765ef4b1829dec66.gif

[Offshore Toon]

I got on with £25 @ 8. Legend. :huhu:

[Don]

Stuck in Turkey without a VPN so couldn't get on, what a cunt.

[Manc]

Soudal Open:

JC Ritchie 50/1
Ashun Wu 60/1

Byron Nelson:

Hadwin 45/1
Theegala 100/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

James. Talk to me. 4/9?

[-james-]

Every casual observer with a Betfair account is going "War m8, 12 points from every country, free money", while every seasoned Eurovision gambler is going "Noooo that's not how this works, the juries are going to pan it! Please stop shortening!" https://im5.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-5-3dfd8a1111.jpg

On merit it's an 50/1 shot in any other year, but it's also a pretty weak field this year. They should smash the televote. Depending on how many points they rack up there, they need perhaps 5th (I'll do the maths on Friday) with the juries. It just comes down to the extent of the sympathy voting.

Here's the song if you've not heard it. The chorus is clearly banger and even the first rap verse is fine, but it goes nowhere and the last minute is a fella breakdancing and another pretending to play the flute.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfm8hVNZt8g

UK (7/1) is second favourite but I don't think it'll do well enough in the east.

Italy (10/1) is very competent but I'm getting slight self sabotage vibes, not sure they want to host again.

Sweden (12/1) should be shorter but it probably needs a good draw. It'll get forgotten if it draws first half.

Beyond that there's not much to be had. With nothing standing out there's a very good chance we get a steamer over the next few days. Netherlands look too big at 100/1 but aren't winning. Serbia, Moldova maybe, dunno. My thoughts tend to crystallize towards the end of the week as the picture becomes fuller, I'll probably throw a few bets up then.

I don't know who wins, but I have a hard time seeing it being Ukraine. Then again, there is no precedent.

[-james-]

I forgot Spain.

1524501053986816003

Those booty shots might just be enough to do it tbh.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's not a patch on last year's Ukraine entry, which was an apex banger. I asked as all the people in my life who for some reason see me as a general gambling expert because I sometimes do alright on the golf are asking me if they should pile their life savings into the Ukr song, so I think the answer is no they shouldn't.

[Jimmy Floyd]

God, that Spanish song just gives me PTSD about being the ugliest person in every Spanish bar I've ever entered after midnight.

[-james-]

It's not a patch on last year's Ukraine entry, which was an apex banger. I asked as all the people in my life who for some reason see me as a general gambling expert because I sometimes do alright on the golf are asking me if they should pile their life savings into the Ukr song, so I think the answer is no they shouldn't.

At sub 1.6, certainly not, and it's probably reasonable to assume that it's that sort of thing that's driving the price. They shortened even more after drawing first half in the running order (historically ~halves your chances of winning) which is rather an odd one.

[Ben]

Byron Nelson bets in tatters already after Munoz shoots a fucking 60 to kick things off.

[-james-]

Spain, Italy and the UK are probably all value (in descending order) in the outright market because of how ludicrously short Ukraine are. There are clear arguments for and against each of them. I should add that Ukraine absolutely do have a path to victory and they probably should be favourites, just not one point fucking four favourites.

Sweden to win Eurovision @11 (Take each way if you can get 1/4 4 place terms at odds of 8)
Portugal top 10 @3.5
Poland to win the jury vote @25 (should be available on exchanges at some point today, probably wouldn't bother with the @17 on bet365)
Belgium to finish last @9

Might put a couple more up later depending on prices

[Offshore Toon]

£35 on Spain it is.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Jury vote on Exchange is suspended :sherlock:

Got on the others plus a nibble on UK last.

[-james-]

Jury vote on Exchange is suspended :sherlock:

Got on the others plus a nibble on UK last.

Ah, Jury vote was last night so it's probably not coming back now, must be afraid of shenanigans.

UK last place should be 10000/1 this year.

[-james-]

Also on:

Spain top 4 @ 2.25
Estonia top 15 @1.8
Poland top 10 @1.7

And will be laying Norway to finish top 10 and top 15 in running

[Baz]

Ukraine, on the nose.

Dunno the odds but, regardless of what James says, it’s printing money.

[-james-]

And that's why the 8/1 on Sweden each way exists.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Only had 3 places for Sweden :(

[Baz]

Easiest money I’ve made since John Arne heard a whisper.

[-james-]

Did okay in the end. Portugal, Spain and Sweden places saving me, though a chunk was done on Poland top 10, Norway pipping Netherlands to 10th hurt as well.

In hindsight got Ukraine very wrong. Jury vote ended up being entirely irrelevant. Eurovision betting truly is the highlight of the calendar though, shame it's only once a year.

[John Arne]

Do anyone have the ability to bet on the 5x5 SEA Games basketball?

[Ben]

Hideki got me my money back on the Byron Nelson. As if K.H. Lee did it again. :D

Thoughts on the PGA Championship? I'm still debating at the sharp end but have got on Vegas, Pereira and List now while the odds are at 200's.

[Kikó]

Paging Jimmy - Figjam up to his eyes in debt

https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/33862095/book-phil-mickelson-had-more-40-million-gambling-losses-2010-2014

[Jimmy Floyd]

Might just plough the bank into KH Lee tbh.

Seriously - wind's up, we're in Wizard of Oz country. The favourite should absolutely, every day of the week, be Scottie Scheffler. If he isn't fav I'm going to pour onto him again a la Augusta. I'm also keen to see how far down Spieth is.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Paging Jimmy - Figjam up to his eyes in debt

https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/33862095/book-phil-mickelson-had-more-40-million-gambling-losses-2010-2014

Also seen talk he's in the midst of a divorce, though I'm not sure how kosher that is.

[Ben]

Might just plough the bank into KH Lee tbh.

Seriously - wind's up, we're in Wizard of Oz country. The favourite should absolutely, every day of the week, be Scottie Scheffler. If he isn't fav I'm going to pour onto him again a la Augusta. I'm also keen to see how far down Spieth is.

Bet365 have him and Rahm joint favourite on 11/1. Hard to see past him but I'm going to wait it out to see if I can get some sort of offer like I did on the Masters.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Instant verdict upon looking at the odds is I like these: Scheffler, Spieth, Smith, Hovland, Burns

Undecided on Cantlay.

Deleted: McIlroy, 'JT', Schauffele

I'll have a think as the week goes on.

[Ben]

I'm with you re: Scheffler, Hovland, Burns and Schauffele. I don't even both with McIlroy and Thomas.