The Betting Thread

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

They still haven't put up the Qatar Masters though.

[Baz]

If Cheltenham’s cancelled cos of this equine herpesvirus outbreak, I mightn’t make it to 21st June. :face:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair have the Qatar masters up now but the odds aren't great again, however they are doing 7 places over Bet365's 5 places.

Jazz at only 56 is a bit shit though.

[Manc]

If Cheltenham’s cancelled cos of this equine herpesvirus outbreak, I mightn’t make it to 21st June. :face:

Didn't a similar thing happen in 2019? Calm your fears.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Betfair have the Qatar masters up now but the odds aren't great again, however they are doing 7 places over Bet365's 5 places.

Jazz at only 56 is a bit shit though.

He is in to 66 now on 365 as well. I did think 100 was mental (though didn't notice 5 places, being a 365 virgin). This is why I do all the prep on Friday/Saturday and have it ready to whizz as soon as the markets open Monday lunchtime or so. Hope a few of you got on.

66 is about the right price for him so wouldn't take him shorter.

[Waffdon]

Didn't a similar thing happen in 2019? Calm your fears.

Cheltenham has been in doubt for about five years running

[Baz]

If Conners could chip, we’d all be a bit richer.

[Jimmy Floyd]

No better Thursday feeling than logging on (no pun intended) for the early scores and seeing him up there with Westy again.

He actually made a water par and holed out with his second shot for eagle early on so quite lucky to be where he is.

[Manc]

Had a nibble on Paisely in Qatar. Strong start.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If I ever put Rahm up again, someone set the dogs on me.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I really do love the 17th hole here. I could happily watch a live stream of just that hole.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Playing a bit windmill crazy golf on that green today, but whatever, it's nice to see them have to actually think through their shot rather than just aim and fire like it is at most American courses.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Rahm reeling The Computer back in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rahm can do what he likes, an out-of-form Brian Harman compiling a cosy 67 for solo second on the first day of THE PLAYERS after I put him up at 200/1 is proof of supernatural forces I think.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Harman still doing well.

[Kikó]

Rahm is in the mix.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

This is shaping up too nicely right now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Mon the Mig.

Also, for some reason Betfair allowed me to cash out of my Tree bet despite him being at +7 or something after yesterday.

Edit: Fuck the Frenchie Rozner. Place is still very nice with hopefully more to come in America later.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Guido winning that would have been beyond outrageous, so delighted with the place at that price. Had almost given up on it after two days.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I was sure he was going to a playoff at the very least.

Didn't think Rozner had a chance at the 1 putt.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I think Conners could win it.

Especially if he can get into the clubhouse at 13 under.

Westwood could struggle later if the greens dry up.

Edit: He's fucked it with the missed eagle & birdie putts on the 16th.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd completely given up on him tbh. What a day.

[Kikó]

Shame Im had such a rotten R3 because he was great as well today.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'd completely given up on him tbh. What a day.

Yeah, I thought he was gone but he's had a storming day which could have been so much better.

Looks like it's Thomas' to lose now but potentially 3 places (Rahm is shitting his pants again) is on the cards.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Shame Im had such a rotten R3 because he was great as well today.

He fucked it on the back 9 yesterday. He was doing alright at +1 but went for +4 on his final 8 holes.

[Kikó]

Harman seems like he wants a nibble. Go on lad.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Rahm is infuriating to watch.

He's constantly fluctuating between "he's fucked it" and "he's right back into it".

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Justin Thomas needs to find some water.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Even though I won't get the winner, I can't remember sizing up a tournament as well as this. They are/were all set up to have a sniff at it.

Masters again soon for some failure, sigh.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Harman with a glorious tee shot on the 17th.

He could be in with a chance if he puts it in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Updated 2021 record after places for Conners and Harman there:

81 golfers backed, 3 wins, 15 places
150pts staked (10 per tournament)
316.09pts returned - profit 166.09pts
ROI: +110.73%

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Another cracking weekend.

[Lofty]

Thanks again Jim!

[Jimmy Floyd]

Going from that to the Magical Kenya Open is going to be a wild ride so enjoy the good times, is all I can say.

[Kikó]

Thanks Jim. I should start putting some real money on this so I can change your strike rate.

[Jimmy Floyd]

P/L by player

Na 79.20
Casey 48.00
Hatton 28.80
Conners 23.50
Migliozzi 21.00
Harman 19.50
Garnett 18.00
Smith 12.75
Rose 9.00
Simpson 2.80
Garcia 2.80
Finau 2.60
Cantlay 0.80
McIlroy 0.40
Day -0.28
Els -0.50
Rodgers -0.50
McCarthy -0.50
Ventura -0.50
Frittelli -0.50
Schwartzel -0.50
van Driel -0.50
Tree -0.50
D.Lee -0.60
Huh -0.80
Moore -0.80
Dahmen -0.80
Horschel -1.00
Piercy -1.00
Perez -1.00
List -1.00
Bramlett -1.00
Coetzee -1.00
Rock -1.00
Brehm -1.00
Kitayama -1.00
Kanaya -1.00
Vegas -1.00
Hall -1.00
Baker -1.00
Howell III -1.00
Todd -1.00
Grillo -1.00
Schenk -1.50
Hossler -1.50
Muñoz -2.00
Bradley -2.00
Scheffler -2.00
Niemann -2.00
Ancer -2.00
An -2.00
Pendrith -2.00
Burgoon -2.00
Im -2.00
Janewattananond -2.00
Veerman -2.00
Tringale -2.18
Reed -3.00
Fowler -3.00
Zalatoris -3.00
Otaegui -3.00
D.Johnson -4.00
Champ -4.00
Gooch -4.00
W.Clark -4.00
Matsuyama -4.00
DeChambeau -4.00
Schauffele -4.00
English -5.00
Rahm -7.60

Rahm and me are going to have to have a chat at some point.

[Baz]

15 points profit from Migliozzi, Harman and Conners. Thanks a lot. :thbup:

[Waffdon]

There’s gonna be 4 runner races at Cheltenham at this rate

[Baz]

Aye. :cab:


Skybet doing the £10 “back as cash if your horse loses” for the Supreme (first race..)

Paddy Power doing a similar offer, only they’ve already said they’ll be doing it for the first race everyday (Sky usually scrap it) but it’s only £5. Need £10 in your account though, it seems.

Remember to do WIN only so you get your full stake back.

And don’t fall for any of the “money back if your horse finishes second” SCAMS.

I’ve done Ballyadam on Sky and Soaring Glory on Paddy Power, because I think Appreciate It (I’ve made a spreadsheet to tell me all the winners) will definitely win but not worth the tiny payout. ��

[Manc]

I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.

[Waffdon]

Aye. :cab:


Skybet doing the £10 “back as cash if your horse loses” for the Supreme (first race..)

Paddy Power doing a similar offer, only they’ve already said they’ll be doing it for the first race everyday (Sky usually scrap it) but it’s only £5. Need £10 in your account though, it seems.

Remember to do WIN only so you get your full stake back.

And don’t fall for any of the “money back if your horse finishes second” SCAMS.

I’ve done Ballyadam on Sky and Soaring Glory on Paddy Power, because I think Appreciate It (I’ve made a spreadsheet to tell me all the winners) will definitely win but not worth the tiny payout. ��

Paddy Power are just giving it to everybody. Ladbrokes have a £5 free bet but it’s impossible to do any ew yankee bets unless you have money on your account as the system calculates it weird.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Golf w/e 21 March

Honda Classic

The last stop on the Florida Swing, this was a particularly enjoyable event last year, one of the last gasps before the pandemic struck, and was won by Sungjae Im. This year will be a little more subdued with all the big names having the week off after THE PLAYERS and the great events that preceded it, with most returning for the Matchplay in Austin next week. As a result this week's field is not the strongest by PGA Tour standards but offers a ticket to the Masters for those not qualified, and sometimes this is where the computer can strike. PGA National is a pretty fun layout featuring the so-called 'Bear Trap' holes towards the end. Wind can often play a part.

Tringale 33/1
Huh 80/1
Long 90/1
Hoag 100/1
McCarthy 100/1
Lebioda 300/1

Magical Kenya Open

Like most national opens, this is an old event but this will only be its second time having European Tour status. This year, for the sake of filling up the schedule, it's immediately followed (with a Tuesday start!) by a second tournament at the same course (I'll do that one next week after we've seen the first one). The whole thing, from the name to the venue to everything else about it, feels a bit like a fever dream and the field is a bizarre mashup of various decent to low level Europeans, a batch of 18 Kenyan golfers, and a smattering of low world ranked players from other African countries. I've gone for a pair of big-hitting saffas as my main selections, and smaller stakes advised on five other longer shots.

Burmester 35/1
Nienaber 45/1
Vincent 70/1
Meronk 100/1
Kruyswijk 175/1
Enoch 200/1
Tree 350/1

[Baz]

£78.50 up after day one of Cheltenham. Not bad.

[Manc]

Not bad at all. Galvin pulling it out the fire saved me a loss (thanks Goshen).

Plenty of value flying around tommorrow. Queen Mother should be a cracker.

[Baz]

I should be more up really because of Vintage Clouds but my bet was diluted down to 10/1 with extra places. :sick:

[Waffdon]

https://i.ibb.co/hDWGWQ3/2-CBF9423-79-F6-4969-B121-017-DC78-FCEA6.png
https://i.ibb.co/NWWbGKq/4-C9-EE85-A-83-C9-4-FB5-AFD3-3-A2-ED2-AB8-A11.jpg

Had the exact same four fold but with Happygolucky instead of Appreciate It for £350. Gutting. Only deposited £15 all of which was on bet365 but only just about broke even there. Tomorrow looks like a favourites day again (yuck) but I’m on the following:

Bravemansgame W/O fav, Tiger Roll W/O fav, Sir Gerhard W/O fav, Blue Sari and Ibleo to be placed @ 170/1
Bob Olinger, Easyland, Sir Gerhard, Sporting John W/O fav and Nube Negra W/O fav @ 260/1
King’s Temptation, First Flow, Dysart Diamond, Duc Des Genierevs, Ramillies EW Yankee for millions
Sporting John, Ibleo, Nube Negra, Blue Sari EW Yankee

Then a few variations of the above. Quite like the look of Entoucas and Grand Roi

[Baz]

TIGER ROLL :hail:

[Manc]

Charlie Deutsch wants shooting for that ride he gave Ibleo. Absolute tosser.

[Waffdon]

That Entoucas was saving the day there. Fuck sake. Blue Sari would have came close too if he didn’t fall. We go again.

[Baz]

Yeah write off today.

A decent win in Huntingdon saved my balance.

[Waffdon]

I put a fiver on Cristal Palace Cat at Kempton and Stevie G which put me back up. Tomorrow looks fun, all the big priced places. Mon the super yankees :drool:

[SincereTheRebel]

If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

[Baz]

I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.

As expectedly, Sky is no longer risk free. Horse must finish top 4 for money back. Scammers.

[Waffdon]

If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

He has 20k just chilling in his account balance, too. Mad man

[Offshore Toon]

I like the amount of people questioning his decision to cash out by saying he should have done a £350k lay of the reverse result. If he had another £350k he should have let the bet run.

[Manc]

Tremendous cash out.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Golf w/e 21 March

Honda Classic

The last stop on the Florida Swing, this was a particularly enjoyable event last year, one of the last gasps before the pandemic struck, and was won by Sungjae Im. This year will be a little more subdued with all the big names having the week off after THE PLAYERS and the great events that preceded it, with most returning for the Matchplay in Austin next week. As a result this week's field is not the strongest by PGA Tour standards but offers a ticket to the Masters for those not qualified, and sometimes this is where the computer can strike. PGA National is a pretty fun layout featuring the so-called 'Bear Trap' holes towards the end. Wind can often play a part.

Tringale 33/1
Huh 80/1
Long 90/1
Hoag 100/1
McCarthy 100/1
Lebioda 300/1

Magical Kenya Open

Like most national opens, this is an old event but this will only be its second time having European Tour status. This year, for the sake of filling up the schedule, it's immediately followed (with a Tuesday start!) by a second tournament at the same course (I'll do that one next week after we've seen the first one). The whole thing, from the name to the venue to everything else about it, feels a bit like a fever dream and the field is a bizarre mashup of various decent to low level Europeans, a batch of 18 Kenyan golfers, and a smattering of low world ranked players from other African countries. I've gone for a pair of big-hitting saffas as my main selections, and smaller stakes advised on five other longer shots.

Burmester 35/1
Nienaber 45/1
Vincent 70/1
Meronk 100/1
Kruyswijk 175/1
Enoch 200/1
Tree 350/1

What a first round in Kenya. Everyone on -3 or better (although a couple are still playing) with Meronk leading the pack at -6 right now.

[niko_cee]

How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.

[Manc]

Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

[-james-]

How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.

This one?


https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/03/18/08/40597124-0-The_racing_punter_stands_to_win_511_225_unless_he_ cashes_out_for-a-2_1616056145054.jpg


I think you've just described how fractional odds and accumulators work. 13*11*5*26*5.5 = 102245 * 5 = 511225

He took a £250k cash out, and the remaining leg fell at the first. Stunning.

[niko_cee]

I was just multiplying all the fractions together and getting a significantly different outcome, I didn't know you added 1 on to each denominator.

[-james-]

Yeah fractional odds are a load of nonsense. Not as bad as US odds, though, which continue to melt my brain each time I encounter them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I come across US odds A LOT in the course of researching golf stuff and I don't know how they can be considered a superpower while using them. It's absolutely mental.

PLUS FIVE HUNDRED, MAN!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

They're a steaming pile of shit.

[Waffdon]

Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

Good when it works out for you though.

I need Royal Kahala in the next for £180 off 80p. I’ll be pretty gutted if it comes in with that little amount put on

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Denny McCarthy has absolutely shat his pants on the last two holes.

Was looking decent for a place tomorrow with an outside chance of winning but he's fucked it hard.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's meant to have ability but he never really impresses me in practice, he got done by the Bear Trap™. Tringale is well in with a shout though if conditions are anything like this tomorrow.

Pleased to say that after blackout for the first three days, the final day of the Magical Kenya Open will be broadcast tomorrow morning as the TV equipment has finally cleared customs at the port of Mombasa. It's those little things that make the Magical Kenya Open so magical.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

It's amazing how much Wise struggled since the 6th onwards.

Would have been horrible to watch had The Computer thrown his name out.

From -14 and looking good for a win to just about holding on to a -7.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A place/dead heat for Kruyswijk depending on the places your bookmaker offers which is lovely.

Betfair offered 7 places so he just sneaks in for a full place but it also means that Burmester just missed out on a dead heat.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Both of the dozy fuckers bogeyed the last, although Burmy I think would have been denied the full place by Gonnet who I thought had retired about 7 years ago.

Still a 175/1 place for Kruyswijk even at my stake of 0.4pts is a profit on that tournament, somehow.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm in profit across both tournaments with my stake.

If Tringale can go on to do something special and McCarthy recover after his back 9 last night that would be lovely.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Aaron Wise with a 4 putt for a triple bogey to take himself from -10 to -7 and bring those on -6 (like Denny) into play was a heroic move.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think he's getting a part place with that monster birdie putt at 18. What a scummy way of making a weekend profit from triple figure warriors.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Aaron Wise is desperate to see Denny McCarthy place.

Edit: Annoyingly Tringale missed a birdie at the 18th which would have given me a part place.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Computer this week returned 30.15pts from 20pts (one could have done better than that with bolder staking than mine).

This week is going to be an absolute mess as we have the Kenya Savannah Open or something running Tuesday to Friday (fuck knows), and the WGC Matchplay starting Wednesday which is one of my favourite events of the year (matchplay rules) but obviously all normal strokeplay betting norms are out the window so it'll be a bit of a voyage of discovery for the computer. Hopefully get something up for both tomorrow night.

[Kikó]

Amazing stuff Jim. The computer is a thing of beauty.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Kenya Savannah Classic

This tournament may have a different, less magical name than the Magical Kenya Open, but it's essentially the same tournament again with almost exactly the same field. What is different is the odds: pretty much anyone who had a decent week last week has been slashed, with those who struggled drifting like a barge. With this tournament playing Tuesday to Friday (I'm really not sure why), you'll need to get on quickly but the computer laps up this sort of thing: reversion to the mean should be rife, in both directions. If there are double-contenders we won't have them, but here are six to play.

Otaegui 45/1
De Jager 66/1
Angles 70/1
Besseling 70/1
Lieser 125/1
Cockerill 175/1

WGC Matchplay this evening

[Baz]

These DJ gambles will be interesting to see how it pans out.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/bookies-on-red-alert-after-major-move-for-five-runners-from-same-stable/480295

My tipster actually tipped Perfect Predator at 7/1 and then when doing the write up noticed the gamble, so I also have a trixie for Notnow Seamus, Blood Eagle and Perfect Predator where £8 returns £678 so I’m fully onboard with the fix. Also have a single for The Gold Bug at 6/1 and reverse forecast for the 2 in the same race - Gold Bug and Getaman. Hopefully I’m well off by 4:30.

[Jimmy Floyd]

WGC Matchplay

This is always a very enjoyable break from the grind of weekly strokeplay and has all the sport's top names at a quirky, fun venue in Austin. The 64 players are drawn into 16 groups of 4, the first three days are a round robin. The 16 group winners qualify, which can force some pretty gun-slinging sudden death playoff scenarios on the Friday. The last 16 then play in four knockout rounds with the final on Sunday night. The draw (https://www.golfchannel.com/news/wgc-dell-match-play-2021-group-schedule-matchups-tee-times-results) is out and inevitably there are some great matchups. My favourite groups are the all-European one (Hatton, Westy, Garcia, Wallace), Group 2 which features 'JT' up against three true match play grinders, and of course Bryson's date with the far-flung trio of Tommy Fleetwood, Siwoo Kim and rank outsider Antoine Rozner.

I've found it very difficult to convert the computer's normal strategies into match play as, obviously, it's a very different game, one in which you can win by being bad as long as your opponent is worse. I have used Sky Bet odds here, who pay out each way on making the QFs, which is pretty generous in my book. I have four each way selections to win, and some side bets.

Each way: Collin Morikawa 20/1. I haven't been on Collin for a while but I'm returning to him this week at his Matchplay debut. This will be a good test of his Ryder Cup credentials for later in the year. He's received a fairly kind draw in Horschel, Homa and Poston (although anyone is capable of beating anyone in this format) and with his dead straight ball flight and consistent striking I fancy him to tame some of the scoreable holes on this course.

Each way: Sungjae Im 30/1. Sungjae's putting has been pretty hazy this year but his striking immaculate and if he finds it this week - starting from a very conquerable group involving Victor Perez, Marc Leishman and Russell Henley - I fancy him for a strong run at the title.

Each way: Corey Conners 50/1. For a third start in a row I'm backing the Bank of Conners, which has paid out handsomely in Bay Hill and Sawgrass, and I fancy could do the same in Austin after a week's rest. He has a fun and gnarly group with Spieth and Fitzpatrick, but should he get through that he will be in fine shape.

Each way: Robert Macintyre 125/1. This may seem bold, as he is drawn in the same group as the world number one. However, although he won this a few years ago, I'm not convinced that Dustin is terribly arsed about it; he'll be more focused on his upcoming Masters defence, and at the best of times DJ is a golfer motivated largely by money, which he will earn here even if he crashes out early. This tournament often has a long odds international runner - names like Dubuisson, Tanihara and Bjerregaard come to mind from the past, and lefty Macintyre I fancy to have the fighting temperament for match play and boost his own Ryder Cup claims.

Bezuidenhout, Ancer & Zalatoris all to win their groups @ 50.57/1.

Finalists Morikawa and Matsuyama: 200/1

Non-American winner: 10/11.

Corales Puntacana

No writeup to speak of for this except that we already had this tournament in the same season, which is weird. Anyway, it's an opposite field drudge fest in the Dominican Republic, and here's what the computer thinks (5 places with Bet 365)

Howell III 33/1
Dahmen 50/1
P.Perez 75/1
Stuard 140/1
Merritt 150/1
Goosen 250/1 (bit of a blast from the past, to say the least)

[Manc]

I've followed on the group winners.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've only just realised that Im and Bob Mac would meet in the last 16, but whatever.

Add Scheffler in place of one if that clash worries you.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I have a 5 fold with a small stake on Matsuyama, Bez, Ancer, Morikawa and Im to win their matches tomorrow as well as a larger triple of Matsuyama, Ancer and Morikawa.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bob Mac taking down Na was pretty epic, as was Mr Large getting done in by Rozner, gallic shrugging his way down the fairways in his central casting van de Velde visor.

[Baz]

What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.

Without looking at the course there are probably a low number of hazards (and they possibly don't come into play often), easy to read greens, a low rough, wide fairways etc etc.

Lack of wind helps too.

Tee position and pin location are probably very favourable meaning players can be aggressive too.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Generally the four things that defend a course against par are design, firmness, wind and pins. Don't think Karen's had any of the above these two weeks. The other end of the spectrum, you go to one of the tougher Open layouts, or a US Open and they'll usually have all four in abundance.

[Yevrah]

I know nothing about golf, but surely if a load of people are -15 to -25 below par, then the par is wrong.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Par is set for the ordinary competent player, rather than top class touring pros. It's also almost meaningless.

It's just the number of shots you're expected to take reaching the green + two putts.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've also got £15 on Lanto Griffin @ 2.63.

With the way Rory has been playing lately (including yesterday) it's free money.

Also, lol at Justin Thomas.

Edit: Rory 3 up after 3 holes. Free money indeed.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Ancer being 2-0 up after the 14th only needing a draw to go through but losing the next 3 holes (before tying the last) to lose 1-0 is seriously annoying.

He better not lose his playoff.

Edit: :moop:

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is such a crapshoot. Great watch though. I'm now rooting for Rahm for my so far quite auspicious fantasy team.

Will do a silly eightfold tomorrow morning for interest.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Yeah I've enjoyed watching it so far.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Oh and MacIntrye :cool:

Get fucked DJ.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

Na didn't even have to "claim" a win on that hole either. He knew he'd take him down.

[Kikó]

Bob McIntyre 😎

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you used a bookie that pays out for last 8 (Sky Bet did) then he only needs to beat Monsieur Perez in this game for an each way place.

Mad how basically every top name has been knocked out, very different form of the game this, brings the madheads like Poulter and Bubba right into play. My approach wasn't quite right in the end but still got Bob running.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've put £5 on Fleetwood, Garcia, MacIntyre, Rahm, Harman & Spieth to win their matches today.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

American golf coverage really is horseshit.

They missed MacIntyre's insane drive on the 18th yesterday and it looks like they've not got Tommy Fleetwood's hole in one today.

Edit: Seems they did get the Fleetwood hole in one.

[Baz]

I’m on Povetkin to beat Whyte by any means. 11/4 Just because I don’t like Dillian Whyte.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I didn't until he went on Celebrity Masterchef. He comes across as a nice bloke.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Big Bob :\

[Jimmy Floyd]

Perez is 6 under or something, unbelievable display.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Speaking of unbelievable displays, little Brian Harman is tearing it up.

4 holes down and he's now birdied 7 in a row to lead by 2.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've only just realised that Im and Bob Mac would meet in the last 16, but whatever.

Add Scheffler in place of one if that clash worries you.

:moop:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

'mon Dahmen.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Oh and in the matchplay Scheffler/Kuchar is being played at a far too leisurely pace.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Dahmen :cool:

The Computer strikes again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Not doing the star spangled as a winning song but we can have a nice upbeat Joel tune (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFTLKWw542g).

2021 record now 4 and 17 from 110, and RoI +104.12%

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've been dipping in and out of the WGC and Scheffler is seriously fucking annoying.

They need to tell him to stop spending about half an hour for each shot.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Pace of play is the biggest issue in the game, but especially the PGA Tour do nothing about it because they're player-run and scared of pissing off their pampered pros who like to take their time with money on the line.

Certain players (JB Holmes, Jason Day, sometimes Spieth) are absolutely brutal for it. DJ on the greens as well, horrible to watch.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Scheffler and Kuchar took close to 4 and a half hours for their semi-final which to me seems mental (I don't know if that's in an acceptable range but the commentators were moaning too) considering there was only one other group playing on the course and they were 2 holes ahead at least.

[Jimmy Floyd]

For a 2 ball in matchplay it's absurd (matchplay is quicker as everyone doesn't hole out). The excuse is they're tired or whatever, I don't buy it. They're just well used to playing as slowly as they like with no penalty. You won't see it at Augusta in a couple of weeks, as there are no greens books.

McGinley loves sticking the boot onto the Americans.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Texas Open

Only the one tournament this week which is the national open of the lone star state. This is always a bit of a low key event, often coming in the lead up to the Masters, as it is again this year. Augusta's next week (I am working on some finely honed selections for that this year, sigh) and most of the top names give this a miss, but others prefer to tune up on the course: DJ is here, as are leading Texans Spieth and Scheffler. The course I always find fairly uninteresting, but what it does offer up is a final last-gasp Masters invite for the winner, and those players are who the computer is looking at this week.

Steele 33/1
Davis 50/1
Howell III 55/1
N.Taylor 125/1
Hoag 175/1
D.Lee 200/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

DJ w/d so hope they don't get slashed. I'm not changing them.

[Lofty]

Thanks for another win Jim, lets hope DJ pulling out gives the computer the edge. Odds only look to have been cut on the favourites.

[Bob Sacamano]

I found myself reading Kezman's wikipedia page and it's seems he fancies himself as a bit of a Jimmy.

Kezman found his calling by consistently predicting the top 3 performing golfers in any given tournament. In a recent interview he stated “Although I enjoy the winnings, it’s just a reminder that form is temporary and class is permanent”.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If class was permanent then Jack Nicklaus would still be up there. Try again, Mateja.

[Lofty]

The computer vs Kezman, let's go.

[Baz]

Palmer for the Masters? :eyemouth:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm doing my Masters work at the moment. Doing (for my own benefit but you might as well have it too) a full Grand National style field preview. Here's RP's line: Palmer 125/1. Bit too vanilla as a golfer to do well at Augusta. If he ever fluked a major, could see it being a US Open.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Shoddy week in Texas, but Masters BUMPER preview will be posted up probably tomorrow morning depending on who wins this later.

[Baz]

Kempton 13:45
Meng Tian

Wins

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Masters

The best (or maybe second/third best) week in golf is back around quickly after last year's wet, foggy, delayed November edition. The spring light and flowers will be back, but there is always a cloud here, and if it isn't Covid this year, it's the backdrop of political tension in Georgia following legislation to change voting laws there, which is widely perceived as an attempt to restrict the black vote (Georgia went blue in November). Many from outside sport have called on the PGA Tour to remove the Masters from Augusta; those people clearly don't know anything about how golf works, as this tournament has nothing to do with the PGA Tour and is owned and run by Augusta National Golf Club, an organisation which hardly seems likely to remove the tournament from Augusta National Golf Club. Still, it's possible that there may be some kind of protests and/or disruption, although I doubt it - they take zero shit at ANGC.

On the course, all the big names are here as usual along with the qualifying invitational field; most players qualify by being in the world's top 50 or by winning a PGA Tour event in the last year. Dustin Johnson defends, while an out-of-sorts Rory McIlroy will once again be looking to complete the career grand slam with a win. There are 18 former winners in the field; Tiger Woods is of course missing as he recovers from his, shall we say, mysterious car crash last month. Another notable absentee is Rickie Fowler, who has failed to qualify, and so misses his first major since 2010.

We are now back on the normal major schedule, so this is the first of the four this year: the others will be the PGA at Kiawah Island, the US Open at Torrey Pines, and finally the Open at Sandwich.

Main selections (all odds from Skybet, ew 11 places)


Jon Rahm 11/1 ew to win
Patrick Cantlay 16/1 ew to win
Tony Finau 28/1 ew to win
Joaquin Niemann 45/1 ew to win
Carlos Ortiz 125/1 ew to win
Lanto Griffin 200/1 ew to win

Side bets


Stewart Cink to finish top 20: 8/1 (Betfair)
Sungjae Im Top Asian: 5/4
Carlos Ortiz Top Debutant: 5/2
Ian Poulter Top Englishman: 14/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top South African: 5/2
Robert MacIntyre Top Left hander: 4/1
Sergio Garcia Top past champion: 8/1


Course guide, for those who haven't watched / haven't taken it in before

1. Pretty vanilla par 4 but with trouble lurking if you miss the fairway, and a variety of pins. Aiming for the middle is never a bad play. If you get greedy your round gets off to a bad start.
2. Downhill par 5. The tee shot is important. A good one gives you a strong chance at birdie or eagle. Miss left and you're in the shit. The Sunday right funnel pin is great fun.
3. Short par 4 with a devilishly tough green. You can birdie this if you play it sensibly and make a putt, but you can also get into trouble if you bite too hard.
4. Tough par 3. You always take a par on this and 6.
5. Dullish par 4 but with a big mound at the front of the green which makes life interesting.
6. Another tough long par 3 with a big slope on the green.
7. A good drive gives you a strong chance of birdie here, particularly to the front pins. However if you get in the trees you can shoot anything.
8. Torrid uphill par 5. The toughest of the par fives, I would guess. Played very long last year, but birdies still in play.
9. Again a tee shot between trees which then opens out for the approach. The green has three tiers and tilts sharply from back to front. Spin the ball too much and you can end up rolling back 40 yards down the hill to a bogey-laden grave.
10. The start of the back nine and an incredibly hard hole. The vast middle bunker reins in the big hitters, while there is desperate trouble left and right off the tee. Also a very undulating green. Par a great score here.
11. Traditionally the hardest hole on the course. Tee shot is threaded through trees and then water lurks front left of the green. Many will bail out into 'Larry Mize country', the swale front right that avoids the H2O but still gives you a nasty up and down to make your par.
12. Golden Bell, the short par 3 where dreams go to die. The correct shot is middle between the bunkers all four days, but so many are suckered to a watery grave, and if you go long into the flowerbeds, good luck.
13. Azalea, one of the best holes in all of golf. Tee shot can be missed left (stream) or right (trees). If you hit a good one you have a fairly simple mid iron in and possible eagle chance. If you don't, a large number beckons. This hole favours the right to left draw shape (or fade for lefties), which is often (misleadingly in my view) extrapolated to the whole course favouring right to left players.
14. A par 4 with no bunkers. The defence is in the fiercely sloping green. The back left Sunday pin is a nightmare and tests your lag putting.
15. The last par five, with history of great drama, from Seve going marine in '86 to Nicklaus's 'life in the old bear yet' eagle the same year and Garcia seizing control with eagle in '17. Pond in front of the green and another pond long, with another tricky undulating green.
16. Dramatic par 3 with funnel pin Sunday leading to holes in one and all sorts of excitement. The water short left is rarely in play but still worries the eye. This was the scene of Tiger's famous chip in 2005.
17. This used to have 'Ike's Tree', a big obstacle which Eisenhower wanted cut down. He never got his wish but a storm did the job a few years ago. It's a tricky approach shot to a difficult green, four is always a good score here.
18. If you avoid the trees right and the famous bunker on the left, this isn't a difficult hole, but you have to find the right part of the green or life becomes very tricky.

Runners and riders verdicts

D.Johnson 7/1. Reigning champ, and world number one. Of late, he has had some dodgy driving days and some equally indifferent ones with the putter. Slightly odd to commit to the Texas Open on Friday and then pull out of it Monday. I'm not taking him at these odds, even though his game is a cheat code when dialled in.

DeChambeau 9/1. Even if the computer rated his chances, I couldn't possibly spend 4 days of the Masters, such a pleasant time of year, wanting this cunt to win. Luckily, the computer absolutely does not rate his chances. No form around here at all - my theory, as stated last time, is that without the greens books (used on Tour but banned/non-existent at Augusta) he can't work out the putting surfaces.

Spieth 9/1. Cut dramatically in to single figures off the back of his comeback win in Texas, his first for four years. Back in form he may be, and great record at Augusta he may have, but these odds are absolutely dreadful. Computer has him at, like, 30s. Swerve hard.

Thomas 10/1. I quite fancy him (not in that way, he'll be pleased to learn) after some improved form of late and a fine win at THE PLAYERS, but he always has an unexpected shocker in him. A pretty likely winner but I've just argued myself out of taking him and in favour of taking the next guy.

Rahm 11/1. The computer adores him always (makes him favourite for this), he is unquestionably a great player, and yet whenever I back him it ends in failure. He has also had a baby over the weekend and named it Kepa Cahill Rahm which suggests that even his child's name is an attempt to troll me into backing him. And you know what? It's going to work. There is no escape.

McIlroy 14/1. McMince has been struggling of late, mincing around the course with small dick energy rather than his usual throbbing boner. The focus is usually on him here as he bids to complete the Grand Slam, but this time he's more under the radar. Has just begun working with English coach Pete Cowen. Sometimes the biggest prize comes when you least expect it. I just think it might be a hair too soon.

Cantlay 16/1. Miserable Pat Cant has a dodgy back, akin to Ledley King's knee - he has to have 4 hours of massage or something before every round. His game, though, is undeniably all-round fantastic and he's been in strong form all season. Computer thinks him a stronger shot than 16/1.

Schauffele 18/1. Has lost his way a little in the last couple of months and lacks a bit of killer instinct at the best of times.

Koepka 22/1. Wasn't in the field when I started doing this and may yet pull out. Just off surgery and I keep seeing pictures of him proposing on a beach. Can't see him winning this.

Morikawa 25/1. Lovely straight hitter, perhaps too straight for this course where you sometimes have to sneak it around corners to dodge trees or find pins. Not sure he yet has the nous for Augusta.

Reed 25/1. His ball-striking has been pretty dodgy for a while now as he bounces from one cheating scandal to the next. His mental wife and her secret twitter account @useGolfFACTS seem to do most of the hard PR yards. I kind of want him to win and so lock up a Ryder Cup place, as the universe needs him there with all his team mates hating him. 2018 champion but I doubt he'll double up this year.

Hovland 28/1. Copy-paste from Morikawa, but instead of shot shape his kryptonite is short game.

Finau 28/1. I'm backing Tony. You'll just have to trust me on this. He's going to win a tournament one day, so why not the biggest one of the lot? You can't be as good at golf as he is and not win eventually. Why not here? He contended in 2019 and the year before with a broken rib or something. Putting always the question mark with him.

Westwood 28/1. It's a pity, as Lee has had multiple runs here and I'm normally bang up for giving him a shot each way given this course has such an experience tariff. But this year he's played too well and his odds are too short. Next year!

Simpson 30/1. Not had it this year and I can't be doing with the God Squad generally.

Smith 30/1. I love this guy and his stupid mullet, but he's a fraction skinny here. Think I had a place off him at big odds one year, a rare Augusta success for me.

Berger 30/1. DB straight vibin. Computer rates his game for this. I have my slight doubts over whether his temperament lasts the four days of a major.

Casey 30/1. Mr Cool Beans and Johnny Long Socks have already produced one victory for me this year. Computer hates him, though, at this price, which I find surprising as he's in solid form and has done well around here before, but who am I to argue with the big man upstairs.

Im 30/1. Love Sungjae, plays every week and doesn't give a fuck. Tied second last time with Smith, not sure he'll repeat that.

Matsuyama 33/1. I've been off the Hideki cocaine train for a while now, and am not ready to jump back on yet. Strikes it like Godzilla but normally hands about 3-4 shots back to the field with the putter.

Scheffler 33/1. Computer doesn't like him for this, and the computer is normally a huge fan of his, so it's a pass from me.

Hatton 33/1. I backed him here last year which was a big miss. Computer isn't too down on him but I've not seen much in the majors yet. Five top tens, none of them here. We'll revisit.

Fitzpatrick 33/1. Everything points to him being good around Augusta. As yet, in six appearances, he has not been. I'd want 50s and rock hard greens to be tempted. Perhaps a more likely candidate for Sandwich in July.

Fleetwood 33/1. I have a bit of a timeform squiggle against Tommy's name unfortunately. Don't trust him under pressure.

Garcia 35/1. Former winner, striking it nicely at the moment, and putting with his eyes closed. A good finish could propel him towards the Ryder Cup team, but computer not buying it.

Day 40/1. Slow-moving Aussie sicknote who should have won here in the early to mid 2010s, but I think it may now have passed him by.

Niemann 45/1. I wanted to back him last time before he tested positive for Covid, and he's on my hit list here again. Doe-eyed young wizard from Chile who has been in great form basically ever since that positive test and unlucky not to win somewhere. His first appearance here as a pro but he played it as an amateur in 2018. Computer very much on board.

Watson 50/1. Wrong-in-the-head dickcheese from Bagdad, Florida who has won this twice with a pink driver. Another member of the God Squad, as well as a member of the Golf Boys (never to be forgotten) - in fact, with Fowler having slid off the world and not qualified this year, he's the only Golf Boy left at the Masters. Went into the wilderness for a bit after inexplicably moving to use a pink Volvik ball. Now playing better, but not well enough.

Scott 50/1. Smooth-swinging, smooth-talking Aussie, unquestionably the best-looking man in golf and a former champion. Known for his sweet move and putting woes. Not this time.

Oosthuizen 50/1. Major champion and has nearly won here a couple of times, but the fact that a player as good as him has never won in America after all this time is a bit of an issue.

Rose 60/1. Avoiding JR like the plague. Dodgy back and no real form for some time now. Needs something to happen to make the Ryder Cup team. Bit touch and go in that regard.

Ancer 66/1. Faux-Mexican pocket rocket who was in the final pair with DJ in 2020 and buckled hard. Not yet a winner on tour and I'm not convinced by his bottle.

Conners 66/1. Canadian gorgeous ball-striker who has paid out handsomely for me recently, but 60/1 a bit light against this field. Putting is also a bit of a question mark.

Zalatoris 66/1. Young rising star who has impossibly thin legs (seriously, look at them). Qualified via world ranking even though he's not technically a full PGA Tour member yet. Unlikely to have played a round here before this week, so no play from me.

Horschel 66/1. I wondered why he was so long after recent big performances. It's because his record here is dreadful: never in the top 16.

Kuchar 70/1. Has come flying in from 100s. Well known for stiffing his Mexican caddie. Everyone seems to agree he's in the top five biggest pricks on Tour, along with Bryson and Grayson Murray.

Wallace 70/1. Was 150/1 when I first started working on this preview. A strong performance in Texas has halved his odds. Makes too many mistakes for my liking. Like many Europeans, will want some big Ryder Cup points here.

Kokrak 80/1. I can't stand his face.

Harman 80/1. Lefties go well here and Harman's in decent form, but 70/1 is too short, much like Harman is, both in height and driving distance. Mike Weir winning in 2003 is a comp but, jeez, that was 2003. This (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGoqfIajW7I) shit was number one.

Homa 80/1. Love Max. Very nice man. Would want 100s to back him.

Molinari 80/1. Contended here two years ago, fucked it, and has disappeared ever since. Recently moved from London to LA - not quite sure why - and although there have been small signs of a return to form, it looks a tough gig to get back into the Ryder Cup team, where he won all five matches last time.

English 80/1. He's one of these good ol' southern boys who walks around chewing tobacco. Had a purple patch in autumn, not been so good since winning Hawaii in January.

Poulter 80/1. Good old Poults. You have to salute his longevity at this point, for someone who wins as little as he does and strolls around with the ego he has. Has made 14 of 15 cuts here, which is a pretty good record. He will want to be closer to the Ryder Cup team even though I think him an almost certain captain's pick.

Leishman 80/1. Had a horrible period post lockdown. Back to some mild form now but nothing to suggest a title run is in the offing here.

Lowry 80/1. Flattered to deceive since his Open win. I think he has the game to go well at Augusta, but not this time.

Wolff 90/1. Completely out of sorts recently. Having life problems, they say.

Perez 100/1. Clean-cut Frenchman now making waves on the world stage. His walk really annoys me for some reason. Seems a Ryder Cup certainty if he carries on this way. Don't trust his short game for Augusta.

Mickelson 100/1. I'm really tired of him now, as with every passing year he slips into being more of a parody of himself. Far too short even at a venue where he has won three times. He might have one more glory run in him here, like Couples did, but I'd want better form coming in.

Bezuidenhout 100/1. I love backing this guy because he's a true fighter, putts like God, and has a great underdog life story - drank rat poison when he was a toddler, nearly died, and to this day speaks with a severe stutter because of it. Computer not a fan here though.

Kim 100/1. Shrug.

Frittelli 110/1. Bespectacled South African who weirdly came 5th here in 2020. Not sure he will this time.

Kisner 125/1. I thought this felt long but the computer wants even longer, which isn't a good sign for another of the tobacco-chewing southern states crew. Probably doesn't hit it far or well enough, despite his fierce attitude.

Willett 125/1. Always a hero in our hearts for lolling his way past Spieth to win this in 2016. Hope he properly lives it up each year in green jacket land. Asks Jack Nicklaus if he can have his spare roast potato at the Champions Dinner. Goes for a midnight dip in Ike's Pond. That sort of thing.

Ortiz 125/1. A true legend of the computer after his 125/1 win in Houston last year. The fact that he's now the same for this despite being a debutant tells you that he's played well since, too. Goes a bit under the radar as he isn't an American college hero (they are so obsessed with college over there, it's bizarre).

Champ 125/1. Bit of a freak show long hitter, but he's had no game for months, so this is definitely too short.

Woodland 125/1. US Open winner but has been mostly injured since. Can't see it.

Na 125/1. Christ I love Kevin, with his gimmicky shite and 66/1 win for me in Hawaii. Been here nine times and never inside the top ten. Suspect it's too long for him.

Macintyre 125/1. Qualified recently via world ranking, one of the last to get in. Very likeable lefty with a distinctive western Scottish accent who hits it far enough for Augusta, but to back him each way I'd want him to have played the course before.

Palmer 125/1. Bit too vanilla as a golfer to do well at Augusta. If he ever fluked a major, could see it being a US Open.

Munoz 150/1. Had a good start here last time and then evaporated on Sunday. Computer not fond at all.

Jones 150/1. Got in with a recent win. Only played this once, which surprised me, and missed the cut. You'd want longer to back him.

Z.Johnson 1575/1. A past winner but that was a weird year, and 14 years ago. He's far too short to do well now.

Todd 200/1. Odd-looking Georgian who had crashed out of the game but is now back. Odds about right.

Pan 200/1. Him finishing in a place at the 2020 Masters was insane. Possibly the worst course profile fit there is; short hitter, little course experience. Has done nothing since either.

Griffin 200/1. This is a long price for Lanto. He's a pretty unsubtle golfer to say the least, but he hits it far enough to get in the right spots here, so if he has a good ball-striking and putting week I don't see why he'd be too far away from the top ten. Had a debut sighter of the course last year.

Wiesberger 250/1. Austrian who has been sort of decent for a good while now, and qualifies for Augusta again. Rarely contends in America.

Schwartzel 250/1. Past winner. Was lucky then. Has had it now.

Hughes 250/1. Second appearance for this Canadian. Some signs of form but I'm not convinced even at this possibly inflated price.

Stenson 300/1. No idea how he's this short. Has gone off a cliff and heading for the glue factory.

Laird 300/1. Scotsman in America since forever. Qualified via a win in Vegas. First major since 2017, can't see him figuring.

Thompson 300/1. Qualified with a win in the Twin Cities last summer. One of the lower profile American players.

Walker 400/1. Still qualifies via his PGA win years ago, but I think this might be his final outing. Hasn't done anything in the game for about four years.

Cink 400/1. I've only been to watch one major live, which was the 2009 Open, where this man stole all our dreams. He is now 47 and has his rather dorky-looking son on the bag. Qualified out of nowhere with a win in the autumn and having played this tournament on 17 previous occasions, with a best of 3rd and only missing the cut twice, I don't see why I wouldn't have a penny or two on him at this astronomical price. Even the computer agrees.

Langer 500/1. Sly old fox from Augsburg who made the cut last year at the age of 62. Now he's 63. Winner in 1985 and 1993.

Gay 500/1. Isn't gay, despite some of the shirts he wears.

Swafford 500/1. Another good ol' southern boy, possibly the goodest ol' of the lot. Walks around like the entitled son of a plantation owner, which I suppose is apt for this venue. Will not win.

Streb 500/1. Pops up every 5-7 years with a random win. Both his wins have been in Georgia, but not this Georgia.

Herman 600/1. Big friend of Trump (though aren't they all). No form at all.

Strafaci 600/1. The first of the amateurs. Won last year's US Amateur. Said to have a knobhead dad who is also his caddie. Google images has him looking like your standard American college twat.

Couples 600/1. Remains the coolest cat in town, even though he's now 61 and basically no part of his body works anymore.

Weir 1000/1. Old lefty Canadian who won 18 years ago. It feels like more.

Singh 1000/1. Fijian sociopath who won in 2000. A modern great and sued the PGA Tour just because he could. I was always a fan.

Osborne 1500/1. Runner up to Strafaci in the US Am. The market has him down as 'Charles', whereas I thought his name was Ollie. I'll leave that mystery unsolved.

J.Long 1500/1. The third and final amateur this year. He's ours, or just 'the Amateur Champion', because we in Britain don't need to specify. He's from Bristol.

Olazabal 2500/1. Spanish stylist who won this twice in the 90s and used to go around slaying Americans in the Ryder Cup with his old mate Seve. Widely considered to have one of the greatest short games of all time. He always seems a bit melancholy to me without his old buddy around. Also has arthritis.

Mize 3000/1. Won this in 1987, which is insane. Golf is amazing for that kind of ability for people to span eras.

Woosnam 5000/1. 1991 winner from Wales.

Lyle 5000/1. 1988 winner. Bad threads.

[-james-]

Bloody hell.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It probably took me about 1/4 of the time that it looks like it took me. Most of them feel like old friends / bitter enemies.

[Manc]

Ancer looks tasty @ 80/1.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

If I ever put Rahm up again, someone set the dogs on me.

The dogs are coming.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I think we've just witnessed apex Finau. If I ever put him up please take me round the back and shoot me.

Dogs and a bullet then.

[Baz]

kempton 13:45
meng tian

wins
ffs

[Lofty]

Either Rahm romps it to prove the computer right once and for all or he is stricken from the thread.

[Don]

Right, gtfo all of you fruity cretins, we're reclaiming this thread for tomorrow to celebrate Liverpool at 2.7.

I've had to dust off the betting account and just to warm up I stuck a BTTS accy in the champ which was a 92nd minute missed Blackburn penalty away from yielding a £700 return.

Anyways, yeah, liquidate all your assets for tomorrow promises scenes. Whether we take the plunge for a -1 at 5s is something we can ponder over the next 24 hours.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Never bet on Blackburn to score.

[Don]

Must have had a moment of great clarity overnight as was going to spunk heavy on -2 @ 11 this morning but unfortunately I've had my account restricted as they realised my -1 @ 5 bets are about to bankrupt them so alas, just -1 for me.

[Baz]

Go on then. £10 on Liverpool -1 @4/1

[Don]

Varane is out with COVID. Price not yet crumbled :drool:

[Bob Sacamano]

Dortmund at 9.50 is worth ago with City's recent history in the Champions League

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£5 on Haaland to score 2 or more.

[Don]

God bless the responsible gambling team for restricting me from further damage. Meet back next week on Wednesday for proper train.

[John Arne]

Who is best for in-match odds and cashing out (for football)? Paddy or Bet365 or someone else?

[-james-]

Bet365. Why plan to cash out though?

[John Arne]

I've heard that some sites are quite slow to update goals in leagues such as V.League. There was a game at the weekend where a goal went in, and my mates app still had cash option for a good 3-4 seconds. Hoping to capitalise on that.

EDIT: We were at the game, so saw it live.

[-james-]

Ah yeah that's good stuff. The guy at the pitch doing the bookie feed will have a man doing the same.

[John Arne]

Ah yeah that's good stuff. The guy at the pitch doing the bookie feed will have a man doing the same.

They employ 16 kids to do it here, pretty sure I can chuck them 200,000 dong to record a few seconds later :D

[Kikó]

It is quick fire street to a restricted account though.

[John Arne]

It is quick fire street to a restricted account though.

Aye, there is that. :D

"Fancy getting yourself sacked, young kidda? Here's $2."

EDIT: ah, you meant me, not him. Anyway, you're right - screws us both, really.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've added one last Masters bet which is a heinz of the following tournament match bets

D.Johnson over DeChambeau: 8/11
Conners over Ancer: 5/6
Thomas over Spieth 4/5
Im over Matsuyama 4/6
Smith over Simpson Ev
Berger over Morikawa 10/11

[Manc]

I've had a nibble at Garcia & Casey EW.

[Baz]

Declare your Grand National bets. It’s this afternoon at 17:15.

I’ve gone big on Cloth Cap, cos all things well he should win.
Failing that, Kimberlite Candy winning would be magnificent.
I also have a small bet on Any Second Now.

[Lofty]

Chris's Dream, Mister Milarky and Discorama for me.

[Baz]

If Mister Malarkey wins I’ll buy you an NFT. :sick:

[Spikey M]

Places. :dc:

[Spikey M]

Cabaret Queen
Discorama
Burrows Saint
The Long Mile
Tout Est Permis

£10 on each E/W

[Spikey M]

The wife has:

Chris's Dream
OK Corral
Ami des bois
Mr Malarkey

[Spikey M]

Post your horses you nonces.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cabaret Queen for me. My lifetime record is 1 place and 2 horses dead so fingers crossed we can at least bang in the equaliser today.

[Spikey M]

Oof. The kiss of death.

[Spikey M]

:moop:

[Manc]

de Bromhead horses are on the juice.

[Boydy]

Had 2.50 each way on both Any Second Now and Farclas. I think both placed?

Betfair not settled yet so not sure how much that gets me.

[Pleb]

Rahm and Finau placing is a small victory for the COMPUTER

[Jimmy Floyd]

It is indeed, though that Finau T10 is an embarrassing way to do it. Record for the year now stands at 230pts wagered 431.04pts returned (RoI +87.41%). I also won on Stewart Cink's top 20 and a couple of other side bets though they aren't in the calculation.

Im over Matsuyama match bet possibly the worst tip I have ever put up, deki beat him by 23 shots and took the jacket.

Two tournaments next week which will have somewhat shorter previews.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Just about scraped profit largely thanks to Cink.

Would have been a nice amount had Macintyre not bogeyed 17th and thus tied with Harman as the top lefty.

[Kikó]

Only took the main bets so ended up return £42 on bet £38.

[Jimmy Floyd]

RBC Heritage

Back in its traditional slot just after the Masters, this nudge around Harbour Town in South Carolina is not too far up the road from Augusta but demands a different skillset, with long hitters largely neutralised, and accurate wedge play rewarded. As with a lot of PGA Tour events at the moment, the field seems to be a revolving door, with Bryson pulling out today and I cannot imagine that Dustin Johnson won't at least consider doing the same.

Fitzpatrick 28/1
Na 45/1
Kirk 60/1
Streelman 66/1
Reavie 150/1

Austrian Open

Not much to say about this one except that it's the first event of 2021 to take place in Europe. Field is similar to the recent Kenyan events, but with the Africans replaced by a selection of lowly mountain goatherds. I'm on two of the homeboys at opposite ends of the market.

Schwab 18/1
Crocker 33/1
Catlin 50/1
Chesters 100/1
Heisele 125/1
Nemecz 250/1

All e/w

[Waffdon]

Unless I’m missing something or it’s the biggest fix in history, Ben Askren to beat Jake Paul in a boxing match at 6/4 is free money

[Baz]

Nah. I reckon if he give me one free punch even I could make Askren’s legs wobble.

[Waffdon]

Based off of what? One flukey knee to his face?

He’s been knocked out once in his life in MMA. I don’t they a Youtuber will be able to do the same in 10oz gloves or whatever they’re using

[Jimmy Floyd]

Investing in France to win Eurovision, this really is a test of an Englishman's nerve.

[-james-]

Sorry for the hasty delete. The endorsement remains. :charm:

It's a very accomplished entry in what looks a far from vintage year, and far easier to get right on the night than co-favourites Malta and Switzerland.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTaOHpWz3og

[Pleb]

Isn't this Eurovision 2020?

[Manc]

What's the value selection -james-? I see San Marino are turning out Flo Rida.

[-james-]

The San Marino song is a bit of a banger but I can't see it contending, even if Flo Rida is physically there (which I rather doubt).

France and Bulgaria are the safest bets at the moment. Romania, Moldova, Belgium are worth small greens if you want to get involved now but I don't want to advise any of them properly before rehearsals.

I'll do a Jimmy style preview in a few weeks.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's a pretty good song, is the frog language factor something it has to overcome? Couldn't see that charting outside francophone territories (though I know nothing so it's probably number 1 everywhere).

[-james-]

To an extent, but it's that much better than most of the other entries that it shouldn't be a factor. There's precedent for foreign language ballad types winning (Serbia 2007, Portugal 2017) and it's the type of thing that gets lapped up by juries. I think it's pretty immediate and everyone knows what "Voila" means.

Switzerland, currently hovering around the same odds as France, is also performed in French. That has a pretty high ceiling but its chances will depend entirely on presentation. Wouldn't be surprised to see it drift to 20s post-rehearsals.

[Baz]

Sad that The Computer didn’t catch this:

1382070771946766342

125/1 :happycry:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Computer works on more solid stuff than that hocus pocus.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Unless I’m missing something or it’s the biggest fix in history, Ben Askren to beat Jake Paul in a boxing match at 6/4 is free money

£15 on Askren @ 2.4
£5 on Askren by KO @ 6.

[Baz]

Based off of what? One flukey knee to his face?

He’s been knocked out once in his life in MMA. I don’t they a Youtuber will be able to do the same in 10oz gloves or whatever they’re using

:harold:

[Waffdon]

:D

He’s definitely thrown that.

[Baz]

Absolutely. Wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Paul gave him his paycheque just for the publicity. One step closer to Conor.

[Kikó]

Come on Catlin (Austrian Open). Schwab probably too far out.


Fitzpatrick, Steelman in with a chance of placing.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Schwab forgot how to play in round 2 which hurt him a lot.

He could potentially win but he'd need a lot of help from those above him you feel.

Edit: Although Kieffer and Catlin are playing far too good right now.

Schwab should be fine for a dead heat place at the least though.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Mon Catlin.

MASSIVE putt on the 14th to take him to -13.

Edit: Kieffer will not fuck off though.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Schwab has fucked it.

Betfair is only 7 places so unless Canizares bogeys and finishes on -7 I'm getting no dead heat placing from him.

Edit: Catlin could win but he's missed a relatively easy putt (especially with how he's putted today) for birdie which would have near enough guaranteed a playoff at worse.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

This playoff is nervy as fuck.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Kieffer's put it into the water :drool:

Catlin has a chance.

He's in the water again :rave:

[Kikó]

Twice!

Thrice!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

And a third time :drool:

[Kikó]

Well done Jimbo yet again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cor, loving that result. Pity Schwab only got 1/5 of a place (at my bookie anyhow).

Might get a sliver from Hilton Head, we'll see.

[Lofty]

Excellent as always Jim, cheers.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Cor, loving that result. Pity Schwab only got 1/5 of a place (at my bookie anyhow).

Might get a sliver from Hilton Head, we'll see.

He snuck into a dead heat place with Betfair thanks to Canizares dropping to -7.

That playoff today was the tensest Golf I've seen (obviously helped by having money on one of them ofc).

[Boydy]

Fiver on Neil Robertson at 5.8 for the World Championship. There's power in that hair.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That playoff today was the tensest Golf I've seen (obviously helped by having money on one of them ofc).

Playoffs are a nightmare and it feels like my guys always fuck them, but, as we say to the god of death: not today.

[niko_cee]

I love that Mahow has become a hardcore golf viewer.

Jimmy and The Computer single-handedly doing more for fan engagement than all the mooks at the European Tour with that as part of their job description combined.

[-james-]

Time to pack in the day job, Jimmy.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Two places in America thanks to Fitzpatrick and Kirk.

Jimmy and The Computer donning it again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Time to pack in the day job, Jimmy.

Tbh I'm still a bit mystified as to whether it works and if it does, why others aren't doing it.

This week one of the well known tipsters had 4 selections the same as me for Austria, which was :sherlock:, but for Heritage we completely diverged, as we usually do, so I think it was just coincidence.

[Kikó]

£136 back from about £20. You're the new BTC.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Zurich Classic

This is a weird tournament. Played in New Orleans and slapped in the down part of the schedule between Masters and PGA, it's played in a very unusual 'pairs' format, so rather than a player you're betting on a team of two. They play two days of foursomes (alternate shot) and two days of fourball (all play their own ball). It's quite fun in terms of seeing who on tour is mates with whom, and you do get some quite weird pairings at times but otherwise I never really know what to make of it. The winners get most of the usual winning perks (2 year card, money, Fedex points) but not the Masters invite. I've plumped for 5 teams ranging from the top to much further down the market.

Cantlay & Schauffele 7/1
Homa & Gooch 28/1
Van Rooyen & Clark 60/1
NeSmith & Seiffert 90/1
Garnett & Stallings 125/1

Gran Canaria Open

The European Tour starts a three week stay in the Canary Islands (two weeks in Tenerife follow this event). The course will be new to everyone - expect, perhaps, tournament host Rafa Cabrera Bello and a few who may have played it on the local Spanish circuit. Wind and sun can be expected, it'll be a classic resort layout. The field is a bog standard European Tour effort although bolstered a touch by a few higher profile players like Cabrera Bello, Eddie Pepperell, recent winner Rozner, and aeroplane cabin groper/urinater Thorbjorn Olesen.

Dubuisson 33/1
Crocker 45/1
Otaegui 55/1
Lemke 66/1
Levy 100/1
Mansell 200/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair like Mansell a lot more than Coral do.

He's only at 126.

Guessing steer clear at that price.

[Jimmy Floyd]

These are all from Sky Bet. I'd take 175. Not 150.

[Baz]

Ben Coley has also tipped Mansell. :sherlock:

[Jimmy Floyd]

He was who tipped 4 of the same guys last week, but tbh he is a great golf writer and tipster so I'm honoured if the computer occasionally comes up with the same as him. However it hates all his other picks for Gran Canaria. I'll be interested to see what he thinks about New Orleans. He and Steve Palmer are the two must-reads.

Sully is a classic example of someone who is a great match for this tournament using qual methods, but using the slightly more quant approach that I do he loses appeal. That isn't to say that often those guys don't win, but it's all playing the percentages and the odds.

[Lofty]

Given someone has been copying your posts and putting them on reddit I wouldn't be surprised if someone is touting the computer's work as their own somewhere.

[Baz]

Where’s that?


(It’s not me.)

[Jimmy Floyd]

Someone took one from the super league thread and did so yesterday.

[Manc]

I nominate Lofty. It's a bold move, but one a wolf must have in his locker.

[Lofty]

Let's just say the only things I post about on Reddit, I am confident Jim isn't interested in.

[Baz]

r/iamameme and r/NFLGB

[-james-]

/r/BIGTITTYGOTHGF imo

[Jimmy Floyd]

Gran Canaria Open

Dubuisson 33/1
Crocker 45/1
Otaegui 55/1
Lemke 66/1
Levy 100/1
Mansell 200/1

Lemke seems to have dropped out so we're down to five (hopefully will be a void situation).

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Skybet and Betfair say as long as they haven't teed off the bet is void.

Seems he was pulled from the Austrian Open due to Covid and I guess he is still recovering/isolating.

[Baz]

365 refunded my stake

[Lofty]

/r/BIGTITTYGOTHGF imo



Actually correct :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

Falling short with 4 pairs in the top 20 but no one placing here, I suppose I used up all my luck last week. We go again.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Really thought they'd all place.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Valspar Championship

We're now fully into the post-Masters lull, with another 3 weeks before the next major. Wells Fargo next week is a bigger draw, but this one is sponsored by paint coatings. In my mind, this is one of the most vanilla, nondescript events on the PGA Tour - played at Innisbrook somewhere near Tampa, the course is OK and tends to suit the nudgers of this world rather than the big hitters, but looking back over previous editions, I really can't remember much at all. Paul Casey is the double reigning champion here and returns looking for a hat-trick. Dustin Johnson also appears, as does my mate 'JT', but otherwise most of the bigger names are giving this a swerve. I'm backing a couple of Europeans who look as classy as anyone.

Hovland 20/1
Hatton 28/1
Streelman 60/1
Hoge 100/1
Moore 125/1
Long 150/1

Tenerife Open

After a barren week last week we hop from one Canary Island to another, with covid keeping them in one place for longer stretches of time. The field is not terribly different to last week, with a handful of additions and a couple heading to the States. The European Tour hasn't been to Tenerife since 1995 and even then it was on a different golf course, so clues are in short supply. From what I can tell, like last week it looks quite short and open, so should be a birdie fest with wind possibly the only defence.

Canter 40/1
Burmester 50/1
Meronk 80/1
Angles 80/1
Laporta 200/1
Broberg 250/1

all e/w

[Baz]

B365 doesn’t know who Steve Stricker is, so hopefully he doesn’t win.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I presume he's WD'd, although there's no announcement, as the alternates have all moved up one.

I will whitewash history and replace him with Ryan Moore 125/1.

[Lofty]

I went for Straka instead, close enough :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hatton (and Straka, for that matter) are WD with covid. The old beast is back to fuck me up.

EDIT: Hatton out, adding Scheffler 28/1.

[Waffdon]

Man City at evens :lol:

You’re getting 8/11 for PSG not to lose. That’s mental

[Don]

I'll follow you in on PSG as I need something to offset having to cheer for Neymar.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair are horrendous at dealing with Golfers withdrawing.

I had to message them twice to void the bet Stricker and now I have the most useless agent trying to void Hatton's bet.

He initially said Hatton wasn't withdrawing and sent me a Flashscore link to which I sent him links from the BBC and PGATour and now he's entered my Bet ID wrong twice, telling me it's a bet for Laporta.

He clearly didn't copy/paste and has just entered the numbers but put them in the wrong order.

Edit: Now claiming it's already been voided despite still showing as open in my bets...

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you follow PGA Tour Communications (I think it is) on twitter they instantly tweet out the withdrawals/field changes, and I think the European Tour do the same in Europe. Betfair must be completely useless as SkyBet immediately voided for me. Whoever normally runs a golf market would be well aware of this stuff so you probably just got a work experience idiot.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The company/whoever runs the markets know as they instantly take the golfer out (which means you can't cash out) but unless you pester them they seem to take fucking ages to actually void any bets.

The guy I got today in the live chat was absolutely a work experience idiot.

[Manc]

You're obviously on a list with that ROI. They'll be trying to get rid.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

[Manc]

That won't look good out of context.

[Baz]

Bet365 for life. Every month they add to my Rewards4Racing balance, just for placing bets, which I’ll likely never use.

[Boydy]

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.
Going to an actual bookies shop?

Are they open again yet?

[-james-]

A free pint of wine for anyone who can work out what my current genius plan of untold strategic brilliance, to avoid going on a list, might be.

Single digit stakes?

[Kikó]

Yeah low stakes means you'll be ok.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Even more 4D chess genius. I just haven't bet some weeks. Missed at least 2 winners. The thrill is in being right.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Burmester and Meronk looking good in Tenerife with Angles (shame he wobbled today), Canter and Laporta not far off the pace.

Hovland and Scheffler aren't far off the pace in America and they still have a few holes (more so Hovland) left today.

Could be a nice day tomorrow.

[Kikó]

Both Burnmester and Maronk have started well this morning. The former in the lead with Maronk in third. Mon the boys.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Was able to watch some of the early holes and they were both playing excellent stuff.

Burmester could have been out of sight already though tbh.

[Kikó]

He's 3 clear of Meronk with 7 holes to play so looking decent either way.

[Kikó]

Great 1-3* Jimmy. Well played mate.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Banging work again.

[Baz]

Fantastic. Thanks a lot.

[Lofty]

Legend Jim :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cheers all, didn't get to see any of it today but loved the result.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hovland is ripping it up here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think CNN are calling this as a place for Hovland, in which case we're looking at a 2021 stats line of:

156 golfers backed
6 winners
24 places

289pts invested
594.27pts returned
RoI +105.63%

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wells Fargo Championship

With two more events before the next major, the first is this event at Quail Hollow, a venue which has coughed up two McIlroy wins in the past and generally (but not exclusively) tends to favour the longer hitters. Fat Bryson duly emerges from his protein-shake lair, as indeed do Jon Rahm and McMince himself, who hasn't been seen since a dreadful Masters. There will be a time to side with Rory to emerge from his slump, but I don't think this is it. Instead, in a slightly unusual staking plan for me, I'm sticking rigidly to just four of his rivals towards the top of the market. I haven't yet had a win from Tony Finau - no one has - but he has made me place profit and joins two of his Ryder Cup chasing countrymen as well as my guy Joaco on a shrunken list this week. I've looked high and low for value further down the market, but for once I'm just not seeing it.

Simpson 20/1
Finau 25/1
Reed 25/1
Niemann 28/1

Canary Islands Championship

As has become common on the European Tour during Covid, this is a second tournament on the same course and after last week's birdie fest it will surely be more of the same this week. We found a sixth winner of the year with long-hitting Dean Burmester, and he's around the same profile statistically as surprise second place man and Indiana Jones nemesis Nicolai von Dellingshausen, for whom that finish could be a career-changing effort. The golf course therefore clearly suits a certain sort of player and I've asked the computer to find me some more. Perhaps surprisingly, off the back of a nicely-paying third place it once again churns out the name of Poland's finest, Adrian Meronk, among others.

Meronk 35/1
Crocker 35/1
Veerman 50/1
Jordan 60/1
Oriol 100/1
Pulkkanen 300/1

all e/w

[SincereTheRebel]

So this works by putting e/w bets on each of the golfers or add them all in a acca and e/w it all?

[Waffdon]

Just do them individually and select ‘ew’.