The Betting Thread

[Mike]

Nice one Jimmy

[Baz]

Cards tonight.

Thiago silva, Reece James, Casemiro and Sergio Ramos @ 85/1 ooh James ain’t starting brb

Thiago Silva, Kante, Casemiro & Kroos to be carded, BTTS @ 160/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Webb Simpson withdrew with a neck injury literally on the first tee box. While since I've had that one. Guess it's all down to Big Tony.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Did he tee off? If he did some places wont void his bet.

[niko_cee]

Webb Simpson withdrew with a neck injury literally on the first tee box. While since I've had that one. Guess it's all down to Big Tony.

Do they do that to get a paycheck (as in tennis)?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm guessing he didn't tee off as he's been replaced by someone else.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Do they do that to get a paycheck (as in tennis)?

Not on this occasion as he actually withdrew and was replaced. However I can remember a time when Joost Luiten walked up to the first tee injured, teed up, tapped the ball with his driver and then immediately withdrew in order to add an event for Ryder Cup eligibility or something. Made him popular with whoever the next guy for the field was.

[Lofty]

Couple of quid on Aubameyang/Fernandes 2+ goals double and 3+ goals double respectively. Just for interest.

[-james-]

Bulgaria to win Eurovision at 22/1 is unlikely to go any higher pre-event.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Free money?

[-james-]

No, just probably quite overpriced.

[Kikó]

Pulkkanen has had an unbelievable third round. Only 300/1.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I thought he fucked it yesterday shooting a par round.

10 under is batshit.

[Baz]

Yeah absolutely mega. Was cursing I only had 5 places and I think he heard.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Higgo is taking the piss now.

He's even dropping in a hole in one.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is the real deal, will be a world class player.

[Baz]

Yeah fair play to Higgo.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Tapio in for 3rd. My penance is I have to spend the evening supporting Darth Reed in his bid for a high finish in Quail Hollow.

[Mike]

Nice one Jimmy

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Quality result. I wasn't sure he'd make a full place due to the massive pack behind Higgo.

[Lofty]

Top work as always Jim, thanks again!

[Jimmy Floyd]

Scummy place run befitting of Patrick Reed has come in, hope you got 8 places as I did for a full place.


There will be a time to side with Rory to emerge from his slump, but I don't think this is it.

Gr8 shout, m8.

[Lofty]

Still an excellent return from the initial stake, can't get them all right!

[Kikó]

My skybet is looking incredibly healthy so the two places are welcomed.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Byron Nelson

Named after the 5-time major champion from the wartime years, this tournament has had many homes and this year it largely serves as a warm-up for the PGA Championship next week. It's also on a new course at Craig Ranch (why can't Americans pronounce 'Craig'?) which few of them will have seen before. Often in this sort of pre-major event, the bigger names are more concerned with the process than the result. The 'big four' here - Rahm, Bryson, Spieth and DJ - do not appeal at single digits. Instead I look to those who would benefit most from victory. Many are looking for their first win, and there are only 11 events left in the promotion/relegation style dogfight of earning your card for next year too. With a top 125 finish needed to stay on Tour, many in the field are some way short of that. For others, a win or a top 2 will be needed just for a berth in the major championship coming. I'm plumping for a couple of winless young guns at the top of the market, and some meagre coin sprinkled around five longer shots.

Scheffler 22/1
Zalatoris 25/1
Ghim 80/1
Vegas 110/1
Sloan 250/1
Hoag 300/1
Campos 500/1

British Masters

Possibly the more intriguing event of the week is the European Tour's return to Britain, and to a classic venue too, with the British Masters this year being played at the Belfry. This will be a rare example of a top tour event taking place on a course that I have played. In fact, I've had three separate attempts at the Brabazon course on which this tournament will be staged and after each one I hated myself, golf and life in general - it's too long and too tough for a poor player like me. These guys, though, should find it a relative breeze, as is often the case when golfers with modern technology take on a classic design whose main defence is the possibility of wind. Holes such as the short par 4 10th and long par 4 18th are stone cold classics that older viewers may remember from Ryder Cups past. The field is slightly better than the recent island events, with additions like MacIntyre, Willett and Detry upping the ante slightly. NB: Wednesday start and Saturday finish for this one.

Donaldson 40/1
Canter 40/1
Syme 50/1
Kawamura 80/1
Korhonen 80/1
Moriarty 1,000/1

[Lofty]

Colm Moriarty :drool:

[Kikó]

£50 single on Moriarty.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's slightly showboating after the 300/1 third place at the weekend but, you know, trust the process. He arrives in good form having won the 2007 FirstPlus Wales Challenge.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair have cottoned on, they're only giving Moriarty at 501.

[Mike]

£1ew on each!

[Boydy]

£1ew on each!

Same, gonna finally join in with these golf trains.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bulgaria to win Eurovision at 22/1 is unlikely to go any higher pre-event.

Bulgaria down to 9.8 on Betfair exchange.

[-james-]

Greece @65 is the next one worth picking up.

[Mike]

Same, gonna finally join in with these golf trains.
You better not jinx it!

[Boydy]

I almost certainly will.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was going to say, you join the firm after 6 months of 105% return on investment, so from here I'm afraid the only way is down to a sustained cold run and massive losses.

[Pleb]

I punted on MacIntyre and thank fuck I did because he's going on a massive tear despite the fact that he dropped 2 shots this round.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's captain of my fantasy team, the odds were shit though. Great young player, should become the best Scot since Monty.

[Foe]

From the golfing haven that is Oban.

[Jimmy Floyd]

His accent is A++. Good luck to the yanks with that one.

[Kikó]

Canter and Mikko doing reasonably well still in the British Open.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bob Mac hard to beat from here.

Richard Bland, up there sharing the lead, is an intriguing sporting story, to me at least. Named 'Richard Bland', 48 years old, from the bland nation of England, plays the bland sport of golf. Has played 477 career tournaments on the European Tour. Zero wins. His last tournament win at any level was twenty years ago. Qualified for 2 majors in 25 years as a pro, missed the cut at both. Career earnings: 5.5 million euros (so an average annual salary of around £200,000 over his career).

Christ that's a nice life if you can get it.

[Kikó]

Dickie Bland gets all the bishes.

[Baz]

He’s also top 218 in the world.

Golf needs a Ronnie O’Sullivan to call everyone else shite.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Morally they all owe Eldrick about 2/3rds of their lifetime earnings. It's probably the same with Ronnie really.

[Pleb]

Bland at 80/1 is tempting (4 places though).

Rest of the pack dropped off the face of the earth (apart from Korhonen)

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

If we don't get a winner in America I'd love for Seamus Power to take it.

[Kikó]

Mikko is definitely in with a shout today. Great finish lined up in the back 9.

[Baz]

I’m on 5 places at 90/1 but feel it’s definitely win or bust. :yn:

[Pleb]

Bland at 80/1 is tempting (4 places though).
I hate myself right now.

[Mike]

Skybet have it for 7 places

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I hate myself right now.

You'll hate yourself more when Migliozzi or Burmester win.

[Baz]

Coley put up Molinari at 250/1 didnt he

Might have to either stop checking his tips, or start backing them.

Actually I see he’s dropped off now. Yess!

[Pleb]

Wouldn't be remotely mad.

Korhonen placing is :drool: despite missing out on the win. Swung and missed on MacIntyre. EDIT- Never mind, MacIntrye is still in play for a place.

[Kikó]

Amazing. Didn't put Mikko as ew and every other one as ew. Top banter.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

btw, American golf fans are the worst.

"Kooch".

Just fuck off.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Coley put up Molinari at 250/1 didnt he

Might have to either stop checking his tips, or start backing them.

Actually I see he’s dropped off now. Yess!

His run in the last 8 weeks or so has been absurd. Computer had the measure of him all through the autumn and winter, though.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Vegas might sneak a place here.

He needs some bogeys from those above him but the weather is on his side.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Going to need Charl blowing up I think, and the Doc.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

One shot off a dead heat placing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

PGA Championship

The second major of the year. Since moving into this calendar spot the PGA Championship has struggled somewhat for an identity. Whereas the Open is a test of links golf how it was first designed, the US Open is set up to be brutally difficult, and the Masters is the Masters, it's often been hard to say what exactly the PGA is for. It has a nice big trophy, and major status, but all too often the PGA of America has set courses up in a more 'friendly' fashion so as not to embarrass its club pros, 20 of whom qualify for this tournament each year. Despite those interlopers, it is undoubtedly the 'deepest' field in golf, with all of the world's top 100 invited, and a somewhat haphazard qualifying process raising that field to 156. This year it seems they had to go a long way down the list to find a reason to invite Rickie Fowler, could not find one, and then just invited him anyway, because, well, I don't really know.

All that being said, I am very much looking forward this year's event, and that is mainly because of the venue. Rather than some boring parkland course, this year it's at Kiawah Island. This is a remote, somewhat wild, coastal venue in South Carolina notorious for the 'War by the Shore' Ryder Cup in 1991, when Seve trolled everyone to death, American players were wearing combat hats to SUPPORT THE TROOPS, and everyone went a bit mental. If the wind gets up, as it did in 1991, Kiawah can be brutal; if not, it is still a fairly tough test.

A more recent source comes from when this same Championship was played at Kiawah in 2012 and Rory McIlroy won by eight. In fact, that tournament was more or less dominated by Europeans, as is often the case when conditions become firm and fast and the wind gets up. Kiawah will need deadly ball-striking and a solid short game to get up and down when things go awry.

So how are the big contenders looking? Imagine my shock that after a comeback win, Rory McIlroy has swiftly been installed as favourite. He may well win - there are a number of things that point to him having a strong chance - but he is poor value at the price. Dustin Johnson has been all over the place since winning in Saudi, and although Jon Rahm appeals in the same way he always does, I have decided to learn my lessons and not side with him (he can thank me when he hoists the Wanamaker on Sunday night).

I have three main selections e/w, and three triple figure selections for your spare change. The below are all 11 places with SkyBet, which I'm sticking with, even though my top pick was tempting on the nose as well. Side bets will follow when the markets are up.

Selections

Jordan Spieth 12/1. After three years in the wilderness, Spieth has turned the lights back on and now seems to threaten whenever he plays. Like Rory McIlroy, he is one major short of the career grand slam (something only ever achieved by five golfers in history) and this is the one he's lacking. He may not have a better chance than this. Arriving bang in form, if the driver behaves he has to fancy his chances rotten on this layout. Controlling your ball flight with the irons will be crucial and no one is better at doing that than Spieth at his best. His short game should also be suited in the event that things go awry. Two of his previous major wins have come on the coast, with the third (Augusta) just a short drive from Kiawah. I often oppose Spieth and this is my first bet on him in a long time. I hope he doesn't let me down.

Viktor Hovland 18/1. Smiley, slightly eccentric Viktor feels like he is the coming man in golf. As far as pure ball-striking goes, I'm not sure there is anyone better. Later this year he will become the first Norwegian to play in the Ryder Cup. Before then, who knows what he could win? I fancy him strongly here for two reasons. First of all, Kiawah is going to be a course that demands quality iron shots, which will work in his favour and against some of the wedge merchants. Secondly, the paspalum greens here are similar to those he won on similar 'island' type settings in Mexico and Puerto Rico. If he putts well, he should be right in the mix, and I much prefer him to some of the elite few - a group he may well soon join.

Tyrrell Hatton 45/1. Hatton's odds have drifted like a barge and I am clambering aboard. He hasn't played since the pairs event in Louisiana where he gave a strong performance. The 'vid then took him out but I don't see why he wouldn't be fit and raring to go for this one. This is a big computer pick - statistically he is very overpriced here, I have him closer to 30/1. His ball-striking is the difference.

Kevin Streelman 175/1. Loath though I am to back someone who walks around with sunglasses on the back of his head, Streelman is so beloved of the computer here that a few spare pennies just have to go on him.

Joel Dahmen 250/1. Dahmen is curiously long at this price. He is a popular player with a big social media following, who, to be honest (unlike his mate Max Homa) I find a bit tiresome. However, he has found a bit of form in the last few months including a win in the Dominican Republic again putting on that paspalum grass. The computer had that one covered and it likes him here, too.

Aaron Rai 400/1. Rai has been strangely quiet this year, hardly playing at all after moving into the top 100 at the end of last year. When he has played, the returns have been quiet except for a very decent showing at the WGC in Florida. Clearly he has been focusing on this as he hasn't played for weeks and a good showing could open numerous doors for him. With 11 places paying and a recent big win in treacherous weather (in Scotland last year) I think this is worth a speculation.

[Yevrah]

Cracking write up Jim.

If I go with 10 points each on the top three each way, how many points would you suggest on the longshots? Assume that's each way too?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I have it like this (using your 10pts as a baseline)

10pt Spieth
8pt Hovland
5pt Hatton
1pt the others

And yes, each way the lot, I didn't phrase that great.

[Yevrah]

Ta very much.

So as not to mess with your system, what measurement do you normally use with pts? 100?

One last question, what does this mean?


The below are all 11 places with SkyBet

If they place in the top 11 Skybet pay out for each way? Was looking online for what counts as an each way in golf and it seems to vary by bookie.

[niko_cee]

In my 12 year old brain Kiawah Island was some fantastical Isla Nublar style place whacked out in the middle of some ocean somewhere, giant reptiles chilling by the greens and all.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I normally don't state the staking plan in here (as it's up to the individual what they want to do), but my standard thing is I have 5pts e/w per tournament and distribute them depending on the selections. For majors I double up to 10pts.

And yes, each way pays out the top x places, 11 in this case, and it will vary across firms (this being a major, you get more places at most firms). Top 11 means the top 11, so if you have say a four-way tie for 10th, then it would be a 50% payout.

[Yevrah]

Apologies if you've no doubt already covered all this, but what's the logic on doubling up for majors? Easier to call?

[Kikó]

Gone all in (£25) so I get the free bet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Apologies if you've no doubt already covered all this, but what's the logic on doubling up for majors? Easier to call?

None really except for field strength, motivation and hype. The Masters is easier as they always play at the same course. Otherwise, I'd say it's like considering a tennis grand slam vs a random ATP event.

[-james-]

It's Eurovision week, my favourite betting week of the year. The reason Eurovision is a brilliant market to bet into is that it's pure hot take (you can't model it or look at the head-to-head lol), and the volatility of things going from 50/1 to 10/1 and back again is always a laugh.

You formulate your takes and fly whichever flag you think comes closest to nailing the formula. There is (almost) no variance or bad beats. Unlike in sport, there can be no debate as to whether the winner deserved to win or not. The winner is whoever came closest to getting the formula right, and the winner thus defines the formula for future contests.

We've had 6 or 7 favourites over the last couple of months but the market has now decided that it's a two horse race between France and Italy. They are the two stand out acts, and are very different to one and other with very different appeals (jury/televote). There's some weirdness elsewhere in the market, including what I'm guessing is a Cypriot millionaire driving their entry's price into the low teens over the past few days, and not much respect being given to the excellent Bulgarian entry.

I'll go through all the acts, organized by semi-final and whether I think they'll qualify or not, and what I think of their chances in the final where relevant. I've mentioned a few semi bets in the write-up but I'm not as keen on them as I am on the bets for the final.

I'll do the Big 5 & host (who qualify automatically) first, seeing as how the two favourites come from that group.


Italy (4/1) - Rock/rap entries traditionally struggle with juries but this is so well presented that I think they'll buy it. Huge televote numbers are a given and this is guaranteed to look incredible (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7ZlfraxaFM). Will contend for the win, but the jury question mark does remain.

France (4/1) - I think this is wonderful. Star quality and absolutely captivating, the rehearsal clip (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUfkstvRMtw) leaves me gagging for more. The caveats being it might be a bit high brow/pretentious to win, and I wonder if the big finale comes off a touch jarring on the night. I have it as a fairly nailed on jury winner, and seeing as how we get jury results first on the night I think it's a good idea to have this green ahead of time if you're trading the event. How it is rated on sofas will decide the contest.

Spain, UK, Germany - Non-contenders that are not worthy of discussion. UK and Spain come 25th & 26th. Germany might do alright idk.


Semi 1


Lithuania (44/1) - Q - Slick, fun, but maybe a bit too zany? Will certainly mop up a ton of televote. Should be fairly nailed on for a top 10 finish.

Russia (70/1) - Q - They've really nailed the staging on this, should be very memorable and assured of a good televote. Potentially even ticks the authenticity box for the jury. Top 10.

Sweden (90/1) - Q - I can't remember a Swedish entry this bad. Once again they get their national selection wrong and send the wrong act. Completely forgettable and should get lost among the plentiful more engaging performances. Could genuinely see it not qualifying and the TQ lay at 1.2 is certainly value.

Cyprus (13/1) - Q - Just as in 2019, Cyprus attempt to recreate their second place finish of 2018 (click here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyDTbJ4wenY) for a reminder of how good that was) by sending an unbeat pop song performed by a scantily clad diva and four dancers in a line. Elena is very competent, but will not come close to being as likeable to the televote as Eleni Foureira even if she does do a lot more smiling. This is one of the better entries of this genre, but I'm truly baffled it's traded as low as 11 the past few days. True odds of this winning are 100/1+.

Norway (210/1) - Q - It's a massive gimmick, but there's usually one that does well. Obvious jury poison. Anywhere between 10th and 20th sounds about right.

Ukraine (40/1) - Q - This will be a big fan favourite and has drawn the absolute pimp slot in the semi. Probably too weird to properly contend.

Malta (13/2) - Q - Instantly went favourite when the song came out, and I get it. It's contemporary, attention grabbing, huge vocally, has a message etc. Is it more memorable than the other favourites? I don't think so. Maybe too much of a Lizzo/Netta tribute act, and might get lost in the sea of uptempo pop. It's definitely not a bad one to have onside but the current 13/2 in the outright is probably about right.

--

Australia (880/1) - Borderline - This is a curious one. I really like it, and should go down better with the juries than Croatia, Israel etc., but it has loads going against it. Lack of USP, rotten draw, but also lack of diaspora/voting friends and the fact that it'll be an empty stage with a home video playing. The latter element introduces a lot of uncertainty but I hear the execution is quite impressive and might not even be noticable to the lay viewer. Basically it's probably at the mercy of the juries, which is worrying considering that it's a tricky song to sing and Montaigne has far from a spotless record when it comes to live vocals. I do hope it's a success but steering clear in the betting.

Romania (330/1) - Borderline - I backed this as low as 35 in the outright pre-rehearsals which is clearly a turd. Just doesn't come to life on stage or showcase Roxen's vocals like it should. Possibly in trouble.

Ireland (310/1) - Borderline - Has a fairly unique staging concept and following the worst song in the contest will elevate it. It's just a bit too breathless though and I can't see it travelling East very well. There is definitely a universe where it qualifies but I'd want a bigger price.

Croatia (200/1) - Borderline - Probably the most generic of the fem-pop acts and I hope it doesn't qualify, but should be competent enough to get through.

Belgium (640/1) - Borderline - They're an actual band who make ACTUAL MUSIC so I have no doubt they'll look good on stage and deliver it well. Song is pretty dull so it's hard to see them not tanking the televote, but juries will reward it in an evening that is very light on jury bait. I've backed TQ at 2.2ish.

Israel (400/1) - Borderline - This lives or dies by the vocal performance on the night. More pretty boring fem-pop and perhaps borderline gimmicky with the whistle notes. Possible NQ.

Azerbaijan (550/1) - Borderline - This is 14th in the running order and I think by that point you're so done with inoffensive popstresses. Also not getting as many of the usual freebies in a semi featuring this many strong Eastern entries. I've laid TQ @1.7.
--

Slovenia (1000/1) - NQ - It's not awful, her vocals are excellent in fact, but qualifying from 2nd in the running order, and in between a bunch of stronger acts, is a tall order.

North Macedonia (1000/1) - NQ - A long three minutes. Nailed on last place.


Semi 2



San Marino (90/1) - Q - They're really, really trying here, and it does kinda bang, but it's hard to see much better than 15th in the final.

Greece (75/1) - Q - Should be superb vocally. The production team have correctly identified that it needs something to set it apart from similar entries this year, so have gone a bit leftfield with the staging (Think Sergey Lazarev 2016). Could look a bit naff or could absolutely nail the retro aesthetic. I'm optimistic.

Iceland (14/1) - Q - They have a huge cult following off the back of their song for last year, which was legitimately great but never going to win Eurovision. This year's entry is similar, but not as good. Nerdy twee stuff does not go down well with the televote and I'm not seeing much jury appeal either. Maybe I'm underestimating the power of the fanwank, but I do think the market is very driven by the west and I can't see this doing much better than 10th.

Bulgaria (17/1) - Q - This is my biggest position in the outright. It should be absolutely charming on the night and has potential for moment of the contest. Can absolutely win. Quite unsure why it's still trading in the high teens.

Finland (150/1) - Q - Very enjoyable Linkin Park tribute act. There's a strong precedent for rock flopping at Eurovision (Hungary '18 a recent example), but this is catchier than many of those and the success story that will be Italy has the potential boost jury sympathy towards this as well. I'm very tempted by a top 10 bet at 2.6ish.

Switzerland (18/1) - Q - What the hell are they thinking with his staging? The song has a huge ceiling and could've contended but it's completely unvoteable in this form. Top five at absolute best.

--

Albania (1000/1) - Q/Borderline - Solid Balkan-diva-core. You've seen it before. Plum draw in a semi that contains loads of voting friends too. Gets through I think, and possibly a bet if we get a drift to 1.8 TQ.

Austria (1000/1) - Q/Borderline - Absolute dirge of a song but Vincent does a decent job of selling it. Should get through.

Serbia (420/1) - Q/Borderline - I saw this described as 3 influencers getting trashed and doing karaoke and I can't do any better than that. I love it tbh, it could go down an absolute storm though is guaranteed to tank the jury.

Portugal (200/1) - Borderline - The aesthetic here makes me want to vomit. As a result I'm not sure I can judge it objectively. Market seems to think it qualifies and I cba getting involved.

Denmark (460/1) - Borderline - A rubbish song performed by a couple of randoms plucked from the queue for an £1 vodka coke 80s night. Has an absolute dream running order slot though, following load of weird dirge in semi 2. Absolutely no desire to back even severe odds against TQ mind.

Estonia (1000/1) - Borderline - Hunk in an undone tie. It's pretty listenable and I quite like it but the weak semi draw could be a killer.

Moldova (1000/1) - Borderline - Pleasant enough, but lots of acts that do the same thing better.

Latvia (1000/1) - Borderline - It's a bit moody and unfortunately perhaps not good enough a song for that not to be a dealbreaker. She's got a good set of pipes on her though.

--

Czech Republic (1000/1) - NQ - Really badly performed and the worst draw imaginable.

Poland (1000/1) - NQ - A complete mess.

Georgia (1000/1) - NQ - Nope


Bets I like currently:


Greece to finish top 5 @7
Greece to finish top 10 @1.92
Cyprus to NOT finish top 10 LAY @1.3
Russia to finish top 10 @2.02

Bulgaria to win Eurovision @18 (15/1 with 4 each way places is good too)
Bulgaria to finish top 4 @3.6
France to win Eurovision if you can get 4/1+
Italy to win Eurovision if you can get 5/1+ (improbable before about 9pm on Saturday)


This is my current guess at the top 15:
1. France
2. Bulgaria
3. Italy
4. Malta
5. Greece
6. Russia
7. Ukraine
8. Cyprus
9. Lithuania
10. Switzerland
11. Finland
12. Iceland
13. San Marino
14. Sweden
15. Romania

[Boydy]

Start a thread for it and link the songs.

[Spikey M]

I have no idea what Jimmy is talking about with his Golf tips, but it sounds like he knows his shit to a ridiculous degree and they should be behind a pay wall. Get dat money Jim.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I have no idea what Jimmy is talking about with his Golf tips, but it sounds like he knows his shit to a ridiculous degree and they should be behind a pay wall. Get dat money Jim.

He does and they really should.

[Kikó]

My mate at bet365 says Jim will start to have a tracked account soon and everyone who they see following him will be restricted. May as well enjoy the good times while we can.

[-james-]

I don't think Jimmy tips anything that you can't get on with the exchanges. Probably better prices there too.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My mate at bet365 says Jim will start to have a tracked account soon and everyone who they see following him will be restricted. May as well enjoy the good times while we can.

Think this is surely unlikely with 5 people on TTH following me in?

There is a reason I just put them up here. If I spread them widely, the clever people would be onto me.

[niko_cee]

Daws has dobbed you in and/or monetised your tips for personal gain elsewhere [THE GROUP!].

[Jimmy Floyd]

I said the clever people, not THE GROUP.

Speaking of which, James's Eurovision preview is quality and I'm going to go through it listening to the songs over the next few days.

[Waffdon]

Jim could charge £20 a month for his tips and he’d get hundreds of folk paying it. The amount of people paying for horse tips (half them odds on or evens fav) with horrible strike rates is ludicrous

[Manc]

Speaking of which, James's Eurovision preview is quality and I'm going to go through it listening to the songs over the next few days.

You'll love the French entry.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Just went through a few, honestly I would rather nail my own bollocks to the kitchen floor than ever experience the Danish entry again. I don't share James's enthusiasm for Bulgaria either, it's like the John Lewis advert from hell.

Ukraine absolutely bangs.

[-james-]

Bulgaria is pure "moment" and there's nothing in the contest like it, the Portugal winner in 2017 is a decent comparison. It comes down to the performer and I think she's very good.

One of the best stories of last week week was the Ukraine vocalist having a covid scare and missing the second rehearsal. They seemingly plucked a random Dutch woman (https://eurovoix.com/2021/05/14/%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6-ukraine-stand-in-artist-invited-to-join-go_a-for-semi-final-one/) off the street to stand in and she was fucking great.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v39i-sPHsQ

[Kikó]

Think this is surely unlikely with 5 people on TTH following me in?

There is a reason I just put them up here. If I spread them widely, the clever people would be onto me.


Daws has dobbed you in and/or monetised your tips for personal gain elsewhere [THE GROUP!].

Snitches get stiches.

No dobbing, I just asked him. Maybe at such a low level (and a variety of bookmakers in use) it's probably not being picked up. When Yev starts chucking his mint £50 at every Moriarty though, we're done.

[Lofty]

My main concern, and I have previously stated it, is that some pleb was detected copy pasting one of Jim's non betting posts on Reddit. So if someone was to do the same passing off Jim's tips as their own we would all be penalised for the crime of Jim being a thoroughly good lad.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Side bets for fun on the PGA

Top Asian - Takumi Kanaya - 10/1
Top SA - Dean Burmester - 10/1
Top continental Europe - Victor Perez - 18/1
Dual forecast Spieth / Hovland - 150/1
Someone to card a round of 18 pars - 20/1

I can't find a market on Omar Uresti to make the cut, but if you can find one, take 'Yes' which should be 4/1 or better.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

No Top Asian, dual forecast or "round of 18 pars" on Betfair that I could see.

The exchange currently has £10 left on Uresti to make the cut @ 11. I took £5 of the initial 15.

[Jimmy Floyd]

11 is a bit daft. Basically, as mentioned above, this tournament invites the top 20 'club pros' from their annual championship, club pros being distinct from touring pros - i.e. these are the guys who work at a golf club, teach lessons, sell clubs and clothing in the shop etc. They are good players but nowhere near Tour standard. However Uresti, who won their championship the other day, is basically a cheat - he's an ex tour pro who has now fudged some kind of eligibility as a 'club pro' even though he's never done a day's club pro work in his life. As a result of this everyone hates him. I thought he would be no more than 5 or 6/1 to make the cut given that Rich Beem (the Sky Sports commentator) is 5/1 and he doesn't even play much golf anymore.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The market looks absolutely horrific and I'm the only one who has any money on it right now.

Uresti has a few quid at 11 and then it drops to 1.03.

[Jimmy Floyd]

There are probably a few floating mugs in those kind of zero liquidity exchange markets, if you time your run. A lay of that at 11 is bold to say the least.

[-james-]

Happy enough that Belgium got through the semi, but got Azerbaijan and Israel wrong. Should've really opposed Croatia.

The two major movers in the outright after the first semi are Cyprus are out to 55 which is all sorts of lol, and Ukraine are into 11ish 4th favs, which does seem much too short now. Malta briefly went fav after their showing which was a bit of a barnstomer, but drifted again after drawing first half in the final. I dunno. The first half could be pretty tame so it could really stand out at 10th in the running order or something. We also got a full clip of the Italy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GL1mzJuV11c) performance, and I'm a bit surprised that that's still trading favourite. It's a bit abrasive innit?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Ukraine price movement is just me calling in a few favours with Big Wallet Billy. It's a certified firecracker of a tune and needs to win.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

11 is a bit daft. Basically, as mentioned above, this tournament invites the top 20 'club pros' from their annual championship, club pros being distinct from touring pros - i.e. these are the guys who work at a golf club, teach lessons, sell clubs and clothing in the shop etc. They are good players but nowhere near Tour standard. However Uresti, who won their championship the other day, is basically a cheat - he's an ex tour pro who has now fudged some kind of eligibility as a 'club pro' even though he's never done a day's club pro work in his life. As a result of this everyone hates him. I thought he would be no more than 5 or 6/1 to make the cut given that Rich Beem (the Sky Sports commentator) is 5/1 and he doesn't even play much golf anymore.

Well at least Uresti has had fun out there.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Don't @ my Uresti takes whilst Streelmania is running wild across South Carolina.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Don't @ my Uresti takes whilst Streelmania is running wild across South Carolina.

I did lol at one of the commentators saying that no one, "with all due respect", believes that Streelman could win here.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

lol @ Rory seething and lobbing a ball after getting a bogey.

[-james-]

Random thoughts on betting Eurovision this year while it's fresh in my mind. Probably about a 15% ROI off about 10k staked in the end. Had hoped for a lot better with the amount of time and effort invested.

Was a pretty tough market this year with a lot of uncertainty. Probably not firm enough in my convictions and nowhere near selective enough. It's a four month build up with new information coming out sporadically. I found it hard to be selective and ended up staking a load of old wank. I correctly called it as a two horse race between France and Italy, and I think I ended up with decent sums on Italy at average odds of 9ish and France at odds of 8ish. Pretty ideal, except I also had a load of money on stuff that was never going to contend like Sweden, Romania, Belgium, Greece etc. It's a massive waste of time staking something speculatively at 100/1 or whatever in March in the hope it drops to 10/1 at some point in the future and you are able to magically time the trade out correctly.

I think the way to do it is follow the national finals and get on any stand-outs in February/March, and then literally forget about it all until the semi finals. There's too much insider information in the market that I don't have access to in between.

Got way too drunk tonight and completely failed at evening out my France/Italy positions during the jury vote as I had intended.

Lost a big chunk on Bulgaria. Don't think it was a bad punt at all, just didn't come together. Them losing the tie-break for 10th place was a sore one. Had way, way too much invested in them though.

Malta coming 7th was flabbergasting and rather expensive. Completely tanked the televote. Also extremely surprised at Iceland doing as well as fourth.

Greece a success in the end, as was the Cyprus lay. Russia top 10 was a pleasant surprise on the night.

Moldova coming 13th is an absolutely massive lol and is 100% down to bought votes.

[Offshore Toon]

Yeah, Moldova was dreadful. It was like a remedial version of Holly Valance - Kiss Kiss.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Streelman is on it today.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It does appear that we may have a developing situation.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I really fucking hate Mickelson and the dickhead American golf fans.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

It does appear that we may have a developing situation.

Less so now.

His second shot on the 7th has really rattled him.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He was a bit unlucky on 9. Think -2 will place so hopefully he can hold on for that.

The tournament is magnificent theatre. Quite want Phil to win even though he's a massive twat.

[Mike]

Fingers crossed!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Streelman :face:

Fucked in on 17.

I get a dead heat place which has cost me about £60.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Only part of a place in the end. Disappointing but covers most of the others. Annoyed only to get that, poor weekends for Spieth and Hovland. My workings were good but just landed on the wrong players, it's ended up more linksy than anticipated.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Charles Schwab Championship

After a great golfing but quite an annoying betting week at the PGA (salvaged somewhat by a Streelman part-place) it's back to the regular events and we are back to Texas for the umpteenth time this season for the Charles Schwab at Colonial. Colonial is quite a nice test of a course, and like many tour venues, has its own 'hard stretch of holes' gimmick - we've already had the Snakepit and the Bear Trap and the Green Mile, and this week it's the worst name of them all, the Horrible Horseshoe. This is another example of what they call a 'second shot golf course', i.e. bombing it off the tee is less important and precise iron play will bring you home. As such we're on a selection of nudgers this week, some of whom have been computer heroes already this year.

Conners 25/1
Harman 35/1
Kirk 60/1
Kim 66/1
Thompson 175/1
Whaley 200/1

Made in Himmerland

This has previously been the 'Made in Denmark' but they seem to have narrowed it down this year - to all intents and purposes, this is the Danish Open. It's only been around for a few years but has already had some good winners including Pieters, Wallace and Wiesberger. The latter appears in a decent enough field also including young local hero Rasmus Hojgaard. I find this one quite difficult to read so sticking to the numbers, which churn out some mainly speculative punts including a trio of Aussies and also, curiously, David Drysdale, a 46 year old Scot who is the only man with a longer losing streak (523 events) than Richard Bland who finally bagged on his 478th attempt last time out.

Scrivener 50/1
Antcliff 100/1
Ormsby 125/1
Shinkwin 125/1
Simsby 300/1
Drysdale 400/1

[Kikó]

This is the one.

[Kikó]

1396999787266940928?s=20
Jimmy Floyd

[Jimmy Floyd]

Probably the best 45 second interview in the history of sport (they will be Ryder Cup team mates also which is, yeah).

[Baz]

Europe NAP

[Jimmy Floyd]

I have a long term position backing Europe. Currently 6/4, if it gets any better I'll be adding more. Stricker is useless and USA are going to implode.

[Baz]

Hungary to be the lowest scoring team at the Euros at 5/1 (bet365) when they’ve France, Portugal and Germany in their group is a free paycheque.

Just gotta hope Scotland knock a few past Pickford.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Scrivener looking good in Denmark although the leaderboard is very crowded at the top right now.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Scriv T3 will break us even or slightly better in that event, looking a bit sketchy at Colonial unless Harman or Conners gets on a real run.

If Conners could putt, my word, what a player he would be.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Harman is shitting his pants.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Eventually got a sliver of a part place for Harman, overall the week returned 13pts from 20 which isn't great but have had worse.

A somewhat odd golf week this week as the European event in Germany is, by dint of their stupid covid rules, having to take place as a three-dayer from Sat to Mon. As such in a break from the usual format I have just one tip for that and also one bonus tip for the US Women's Open. The PGA tour event I'm tipping up normally as below.

Memorial Tournament

The Tour finally moves north this week to Ohio, and it's the latest edition of the event hosted by Jack Nicklaus. Much like the Arnold Palmer event in Florida, it's a bit of a sickening two fingers down throat fest as they all spend the week telling 'Jack' how great he - one of sport's most arrogant men - is. The golf, however, is usually very good on what is a real challenging test of a course. They have also renovated it for this year which should make it even better. The field is very strong indeed, with more of the world's top 10 playing than not. Rahm is the defending champion but he's not been at it this calendar year, except for those place runs from nowhere on Sundays. Instead I'm siding with a quintet of Americans led by one of the top young guns.

Morikawa 16/1
Scheffler 40/1
Cink 100/1
Gooch 110/1
Ghim 125/1

European Open

The computer has very few models for a three day event, but it knows that this course demands length and plenty of it. As well as this there are US Open places up for grabs. As such there is only one pick for me: Poland's Adrian Meronk, third in strokes gained off the tee on the European Tour for whom virtually any decent finish will make him the first Pole to qualify for a major championship.

Meronk 35/1

US Women's Open

Jin Young Ko 10/1 on the nose

[Pleb]

Will you be dipping into the Euros this tournament Jimmy?

[Baz]

Hungary to be the lowest scoring team at the Euros at 5/1 (bet365) when they’ve France, Portugal and Germany in their group is a free paycheque.

Just gotta hope Scotland knock a few past Pickford.
Hungary star Szoboszlai misses Euro 2020 with injury (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210601-hungary-star-szoboszlai-misses-euro-2020-with-injury)

ALL ABOARD!

[Jimmy Floyd]

Doubt the magic Magyars at your peril. They are toppling Germany.

[Offshore Toon]

There's your bet, Pleb. Hungary to be the highest scoring team.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Will you be dipping into the Euros this tournament Jimmy?

Maybe for fun but not with any knowledge, I only have anything more than joe pleb on golf (and maybe cricket).

[Baz]

Fucksake, had the dreaded “account limited” email from Bet365.

Tried to bet £2.50 EW on golf and they said I could bet 40p. :happycry:

I’ve been told it’s a badge of honour but it doesn’t feel like it. End of an era.

Apparently Coral and Ladbrokes do Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) the night before races so might try them. Boylesports and Sportingbet do too but, er, who are they. Don’t fancy giving them thousands of pounds.

[Offshore Toon]

Just make a new account using your wife, parents or Mike's details.

[Kikó]

Such bullshit that. As if the exposure to a fucking £2.50 bet is so much that they'd fold. Absolute thieves.

[Don]

Skybet have seemingly failed to add the word 'each' to the end of an 'Immobile, Kane and Morata to score 5+' bet at 200/1. Worth getting on in case they don't void.

[-james-]

Do you follow any popular tipsters Baz? I can't see why they'd do you for stakes that small otherwise.

[Baz]

Do you follow any popular tipsters Baz? I can't see why they'd do you for stakes that small otherwise.I only do small stakes for golf, but yeah I follow a tipster although he only has 155 members. Truth be told I went from £10 a point to £100 a point on 1st June. Was 3.5k up since January 1st and figured I could realistically be £35k up between now and Christmas, so decided to up it.

I’ve now withdrawn “30 points” from 365 and deposited 20 to Ladbrokes, so will see how long my account lasts. I usually back around 8 horses a day for between 10-30 points.

[Jimmy Floyd]

No wonder then. My golfers are on about 85% profit I think at the moment but I've only taken out about a thousand this year as the stakes are small.

[-james-]

Three grand profit is often about the tipping point on a 365 so that makes sense. You're best off shopping around as much as possible if you can be bothered keeping track of it all, will get you the best odds and also preserve your accounts. Definitely use the exchanges where possible as well.

[Lofty]

Skybet have seemingly failed to add the word 'each' to the end of an 'Immobile, Kane and Morata to score 5+' bet at 200/1. Worth getting on in case they don't void.

Excellent shout.

[Baz]

More chance of them scoring 5 each than Sky paying out on that rick.

[Lofty]

They have edited the bet to say each after it was struck.

[Lofty]

Sky credited all affected bets with a free bet equal to the stake after amending the bet.

[Baz]

I’ve now withdrawn “30 points” from 365 and deposited 20 to Ladbrokes, so will see how long my account lasts. It lasted less than a day. :moop:

Some lad from my tipster group works for Ladbrokes/Coral (same company, apparently) and said he could look into what they restricted me for. Quite interesting really:

Trying to stake 2 points on a 6/1 got my account flagged saying 'showing price awareness' but it didn't even bloody win! It's now limited to 30% so I can only stake where the winnings would be 30% of what a clean account could win. I tried to bet on Prosperous Village tomorrow, and a clean account will be allowed to stake anything upto what returns £2000, whereas my max stake will be whatever returns £600. And because Ladbrokes and Coral are the same, and I used the same username, both got limited. Bit of a con, that.

Every bet I placed yesterday went for "review" but finally went through. Then todays bets went for review and then the traders offered me 40% stake at SP. No thanks! Weirdly they let me put a 4 pointer on without any review, so hopefully that wins as one last fuck you to Ladbrokes. Managed to get the others on, for proper odds with Sky and Paddy Power but they're serious long-term accounts and I'd hate for them to get limited, especially Sky, so don't really want to use them as part of my staking plan.

I'm trying William Hill now. I had to chat to them to "verify" my account the other day cos they were offering 33/1 for Ronaldo to join Miami and they let me have a whopping £15.15 on it. But then earlier they let me stake 2 points on an 11/8 shot tomorrow, so gonna smash them from Sunday onwards. Any bets on how long my account lasts?

Maybe I should go to £50 a point and lower my £35k by Christmas dream. :(

[niko_cee]

That sort of stuff is actually quite scandalous and should probably see the industry just shut down (more than all the 'oh but the poor idiots gambling all their money away' shite). If they want to operate like an underworld racket, then at least have the good grace to do so from the shadows.

[Kikó]

Absolutely - they're absolute crooks who limit any sort of loss but encourage mug punters to go and bet on loss-makers like accas. Fuck the lot of them.

[Baz]

If Baron Samedi doesn’t win this American race at 10:48 I’ll reconsider the rest of my months betting. Everything points to a landslide. Very nervous though.

[-james-]

The whole business model is to attract mug punters. Them not bothering to hire odds compilers any more is pretty much why they're so easy to take money out of.

Popular bets and obvious misprices will get you limited quicker than anything though.

[Baz]

The whole business model is to attract mug punters. Them not bothering to hire odds compilers any more is pretty much why they're so easy to take money out of.

Popular bets and obvious misprices will get you limited quicker than anything though.

Know any bookies that will happily let me bet ten 200 stakes from the off?

[-james-]

Betfair exchange.

Backing ten horses, that others are also backing, for £200 each on a fresh account is an almost guaranteed restriction I would think. Exactly the sort of business they don't want and incredibly easy to spot.

[Waffdon]

Frankie Dettori:lol:

[Jimmy Floyd]

So Jon Rahm led by six shots at the Memorial going into the final day, and then suddenly a positive covid test came back. I now have the joint leader at -12 (should be six back) and another three back (should be 9 back).

I think this is what is known as 'the rub of the green'.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Rahm finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Kikó]

1401304515572273155?s=19

Serves him right for not winning when you picked him.

[Waffdon]

Why are they touching and hugging him lol. Why was he playing whilst waiting for results. Why does he say ‘not again’. So many questions

[Lofty]

The gift that keeps on giving.

[Kikó]

Keep it up Scottie.

[Yevrah]

The Woman in that video reveals the COVID news as if someone had died.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Jim Nantz with the funereal tone as well as if there's been a death in the family. Welcome to a sport that never takes itself less than deadly seriously.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Mon Scheffler.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm not too bothered from here, even if Cantlay wins. Despite the whole thing being a massive fraud, I'm pretty content with the process if my two top picks are 1st and 2nd with a couple of holes left.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Fucking pussy rules officials suspending play for a bit of rain.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Fairly sure Cantlay has the greater bottle of the two, though it's a bit of a race to the bottom in that regard.

[Kikó]

Cheers Jim. Both Cantlay and Collin showed some stones near the end with their putting. Money back and a little more.

[Lofty]

Yeah thanks Jim.

[Jimmy Floyd]

An odd and quirky week in golf this week, coming before the US Open next week (the qualifying for which is running at the moment: RIP Rickie again). The European Tour are running something called the 'Scandinavian Mixed', which is a tournament with 78 men and 78 women all playing on the same leaderboard for the same prize pot and trophy. This is a bit of a chin-stroker of a concept (I can't see how the men won't dominate, but I guess we'll see) and the bookies seem to agree, as they have thus far declined to put up a market at all. As such I will be giving that one a swerve and sticking to the PGA Tour event in the US this week.

Palmetto Championship

Normally we would have the Canadian Open this week, but for the second year running it's been cancelled as the Canadians are being a lot more tight about covid than the incredibly lax Americans are (it amazes me how few of them give a damn, and occasionally, as Jon Rahm found out, this comes back to bite you). For a replacement event, it's back to South Carolina for a hastily arranged tournament at Congaree. This is classic Carolinas sandy/swampy type territory, burned down by Sherman in 1865, and at some point after that someone decided to build a golf course on what was left. Coming directly before a major, the field is an unusual mix of the bottom-feeding guys you would normally only see in opposite field events, but also Dustin Johnson and a few other bigger names wanting a tune-up before Torrey Pines on the other coast. As ever with these new courses that no one in the field has played, research is required to find out who actually has played them, but off the books. That research, allied to the standard computer methods, leads me to this little squadron.

Fitzpatrick 14/1
Glover 30/1
Varner III 40/1
Werenski 80/1
Garnett 125/1
McGirt 600/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair exchange has it up but £0 has been staked on the market.

It sounds a bit mental.

Will they be using handicaps or something to help the women be able to compete? Able to tee off closer? Surely they're going to get smashed on the par 5s?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The women will be from forward tees (as they always are), but even then it is quite difficult to set up. For example if they set it up so the tee shots are landing in the same place then the men will always have a more lofted club in, so to equalise it they will need to have the women land the tee shots further up than the men to have the same club in. Even then, I'm pretty sure the men would be better with wedges and around the green, even if it's by less. So I am a bit curious to see how they end up doing it. The women playing are far fron the world's best, too.

[Lofty]

Sky offering women only for it.

[Manc]

Talk to me about Kevin Kisner Jimmy Floyd.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A player I like, and probably knows the territory over there, but has shown no form this year. His ball striking has receded to average tour level, which you can't afford when you're a shorter hitter. I'd want 66/1 or higher.

[Baz]

"It’s a golf course that really on paper does not suit my game," said regular visitor William McGirt, apparently confirming that view. "When you look at the scorecard and you see 7,800 yards, I’m not a bomber. So you have a very long golf course with no real penalty off the tee for spraying it."

Love the bluffing. :henn0rz:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I saw that Luke List had the course record too and thought, nah, it's not that easy. Somehow BC and I have both alighted upon HV3 so here's hoping the method works.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Am relenting and putting up four for the Scandi Mixed (men only market) to keep myself interested for the next two days. SkyBet are doing 5 places for 1/4 the odds.

Fox 16/1
Besseling 30/1
Kruyswijk 40/1
Aberg (am) 66/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Euro 2020(1) bets:

£10 on BTTS in Italy/Turkey match @ 2.4

£5 on Lewandowski top scorer @ 26
£5 on England to finish third in their group @ 8.5
£5 on Czech Republic to win their group @ 11
£5 on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to score a headed goal each @ 13
£5 on Kane & Lukaku to score 3 or more, Yilmaz & Depay 2 or more and Ferran Torres 1 or more @ 8
£2 on Poland to reach the quarters & Lewandowski to score 5 or more @ 23
£1 on Turkey to reach the semis, Benzema top scorer & Bellingham best young player @ 301
£1 on Turkey to reach semis, Denmark win group B & Bellingham best young player @ 501
£1 on Kane & Mbappe 4 or more goals and Jota, Insigne & Yilmaz to score 2 or more @ 51.

I only feel confident in the Turkey/Italy BTTS tonight, I can't wait to see all the tournament bets crash and burn.

[Baz]

I’ve three free bets to use on the England matches, but dunno what to do.

So far my only bets are Hungary to score the fewest goals @5/1 and Kante player of the tournament @40/1

Oh and Netherlands to win it @14/1 but only cos I get a free £5 bet every time they win a group game.

[-james-]

Top team goalscorers:
Austria - Baumgartner @15
Denmark - Kjaer @67
Spain - Ferran Torres @4.5
Netherlands - Depay @2.5

Tournament goals:
Denmark - u5.5 @1.8
Poland - u4.5 @1.73
Croatia - u5.5 @1.8
Austria - u3.5 @2.2
Ukraine - u4.5 @1.83

Lukaku to outscore Mbappe @1.8
Netherlands Austria straight forecast @3

[Jimmy Floyd]

Here is my list of mug punts for Euro '21

Golden Boot: Robert Lewandowski @ 25/1 (4 places)
Exactly 131 goals scored: @ 18/1
Yann Sommer most clean sheets @ 18/1
North Macedonia to reach QF @ 16/1
Scotland out on penalties @ 14/1
Top Chelsea goalscorer Mason Mount @ 4/1
Austria to concede the most goals @ 16/1
Joao Felix Best Young Player @ 10/1
Total penalties scored: Over 14.5 @ 8/13
Wales last in Group A @ 11/10
Tournament forecast: 1 Portugal 2 France @ 40/1
Finland to score fewest goals @ 7/1
Group C most goals @ 9/2

[Offshore Toon]

I stuck a fiver on Turkey to win a couple week back. It is written.

[Jimmy Floyd]

US Open


For the first time since 2008, we are at Torrey Pines in San Diego for the US Open, the third major of the year - they come thick and fast at this point. The 2008 edition was a truly memorable one, with Tiger Woods holing his famous 'Expect anything different?' putt to force an 18 hole playoff with likeable New York journeyman Rocco Mediate, which Woodsy duly (though barely) won to claim the 14th and last major before it all went south for him. Torrey Pines is a familiar venue as it also hosts a regular PGA Tour event in January/February each year. However, the US Open is the self-declared 'toughest test in golf' so you can expect a much drier and tougher golf course than the one seen a few months back when Fat Pat Reed claimed his most recent victory.

Unlike the last two majors, the US Open (as the name suggests) takes its field (after the usual top 50 exemptions etc) from a series of open qualifying events. As such you get some right old randomers who manage to make it through alongside the more familiar names. The highest profile such event was last Monday in Columbus, where the last place in the field was decided by the carnage a 12 man playoff (going for 1 place). England's Ben Taylor holed his approach shot for an eagle to send the other 11 - including Rickie Fowler - packing. Fowler and other fallen names didn't make it but you will see appearances from Peru's Luis Barco, Costa Rica's Luis Gagne, and some classic American golfer regen names like Zach Zaback, Davis Shore and Wilson Furr.

In between my own schedule and the Euros, I hope to get as much viewing in as possible, and this week I have a quite simple six fancies to go with.

Xander Schauffele 16/1. Sooner or later, it has to happen for Xander at a major championship. Among the top players, he has consistently shown perhaps the greatest ability to peak at the right time for the majors. He's had 8 top 10 finishes at majors by the age of 27, and nowhere has he looked more comfortable than on the tough US Open setups, where in four stabs he has incredibly never finished below 6th place. Not only that, but he is in his home city of San Diego so will undoubtedly feel comfortable at a venue he knows well and where he finished in a tie for second place earlier this year. I find this price surprising.

Tony Finau 25/1. For a player whose continued failure to win is almost a running joke in golf circles - see this song (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B71RWlGEZxo) which went viral last year - Tony has been a surprisingly profitable geezer for me, bringing home 9.3 of the 292.43pts I'm up this year. As such, when he came up on the computer's radar for this I was happy to plough in again. I have a sort of vision of him finally winning and it being a US Open (or maybe a Masters). The reason for this is he is quite simply better at golf than almost everyone. He has logged a cool ten top 10 finishes in majors, most of them more of the backdoor variety compared to Xander, but that's still no bad thing for an each way bet. I just hope at some point he gains a putting stroke and/or a temperament.

Joaquin Niemann 50/1. He has long been a favourite of mine, not just for his dreamy Chilean eyes but mainly because he has a phenomenally consistent golf game. He has yet to really turn up at a major but it has to happen some time and I don't see why it shouldn't happen at a venue like Torrey Pines where his sneaky distance and crisp iron play will be of great benefit. This price feels just long of right.

Jason Kokrak 60/1. This price, on the other hand, feels really quite long. Kokrak is a recent winner and has really come to the fore over the last year, apparently since changing his putting grip. This allowed him to start capitalising on his unsubtle length - he's more a Dodge Ram of golfers than a Ferrari Enzo. Nonetheless his win over (an admittedly bed-shitting) Spieth the other week will have given him confidence that his career is finally at a point where he can take on the big dogs. He'll have to have a good putting week but his game feels well inside this price.

Charley Hoffman 80/1. Hoffman has had a quietly very good year on Tour - 29th on the points list without a win - and at 44 the chances are starting to run out for someone right on the cusp of being a journeyman or not. Four wins in his career is a good record and the first of them also came in southern California, where we are this week, albeit inland. Hoffman's main claim to fame is being the first round leader at the Masters - something he has done several times - and then fading at the weekend. In fact, his best major finish was 8th at the US Open in 2017 and he's made the cut at six of the seven US Opens he's contested. With his ball-striking form the way it is, I can't resist a punt.

Chan Kim 500/1. Although an American citizen, Kim plays primarily in Japan and had to qualify for this from scratch. He did so with aplomb, winning the Rolling Hills qualifying site with aplomb at -10 from two rounds. What I cannot understand is why an accomplished golfer ranked as highly as 83 in the world is slumming it at 500/1 along with all the plebs ranked around 300 places lower. Sure, the OWGR can overvalue wins in Japan, but wins are wins, and they mean you are better than the competition, so I find it mystifying. Perhaps all the Kims blend into one another and people without a strong American presence can be overlooked. Although unlikely, a top 11 (Skybet pays this many places) seems far from impossible and I will be having a piece.



(I may take a break after this one, I get so busy in the summer which limits my research time each week. We'll see)

[Kikó]

All in one last time. Thanks for the past few months Jim.

[Baz]

Apologies if this has been asked before but do you do level stakes for every pick?

+293 in 6 months is crazy. Thanks for sharing.

[Kikó]

No he doesn't

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't. I stake 5pts e/w and distribute them. This probably isn't an optimum method so I don't share it but it is used for the overall calculations. Last week's for an example:

Fitzpatrick 14 1.50
Glover 30 1.00
Varner III 40 1.00
Werenski 80 0.75
Garnett 125 0.50
McGirt 600 0.25

[Don]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/14/betting-firms-won-13m-in-stolen-money-from-gambling-addict

Some great rides described in that :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Anyone who likes a bit of group permutations bingo:

At 5pm tonight, Australia play Jordan in the final round of their World Cup qualifying group. Jordan must win this game to have any chance of progressing to the next round.

At 7pm, Saudi Arabia play Uzbekistan knowing the Jordan result - if Jordan haven't beaten Australia, then a draw takes both Saudi/Uzbek through. Currently 21/10 the draw. Might be worth getting on early if Australia go a couple ahead in play. My only concern about going early is I don't know if Aus (evidently the stronger side on paper) will roll over for Jordan.

[Manc]

Thoughts on Homa? Jimmy Floyd?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thoughts on Homa? Jimmy Floyd?

I'd want three figures minimum.

[Don]

If we somehow end up only drawing against Iraq, MBS will threaten a chainsaw massacre on all the Saudi players if they don't throw the Uzbek game. They'll do anything to stop us from progressing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've got you through with a point as long as Jordan don't win.

Must be a new world record for permutations. Mood said to be 'relaxed' in the Lebanon camp.

[Baz]

Hungary haven’t scored yet. :youpi:

[Mazuuurk]

Got BTTS here. Come on Pen-land.

[niko_cee]

It'll never last but got to get a comment in here whilst Dickie Bland shares the lead of the US fucking Open well into his second round.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is on the ultimate divorced dad mad bender. Nearly 30 years of utter mediocrity and now suddenly lighting up everything he touches.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Don't think any of my runners will be in it, but this US Open final day is setting up to be absolutely brilliant.

[Manc]

I was fed whispers of Koepka earlier in the week. Praying for a bottle job.

[Mellberg]

Early start in the morning. Shaping up to be a problem.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I love it when Bryson fucks up.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rahm and the chokemaster general going toe to toe to the finish line with a whiny Bryson wheezing his way back into the pack, this is what major Sundays are all about.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That bunker shot :drool:

The scientist is on the ropes.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

While part of me would love it if Rahm won here I'd also be a little gutted that it would happen when THE COMPUTER isn't on him.

Although I do think that would be very fitting for Rahm.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was out of my chair for both those putts on 17 and 18, so yeah, fuck Rahm, but also, love Rahm. What a player.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That was brilliant.

I didn't think he'd get either of those.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Louis has choked.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He already has the grand slam of runner ups in majors and now halfway through a second one. Absolute all time great of finishing second.

[Kikó]

I wish we could have been there for the final Rahm train. :-(

[Jimmy Floyd]

He was just too short to back, 7/1 or something. Christ if I'd been on him I might have woken up the neighbourhood for his putt on 17.

I'll have a little break now and be back for the Open. Had a slightly meh run recently which has taken the 2021 profits down to about 65%.

[niko_cee]

Both Rahm and Hideki picking up majors does feel a bit of an affront to the computer, but then I guess that's how it works.

Feel a bit for Little Louis and his grand slam of second places (seeing him up against Bomb and Gouge is quite funny), but then I've always resented him as a bit of a fraud for that Open win when he just scampered off in the best conditions of both first days.

Has the meh run coincided with whichever of Yev or Boydy joined the train most recently? Coolers!

[niko_cee]

Also, loved that ball up a tree moment. That was it for me though, west coast US Majors are a bit of a pain in the backside from a Monday morning perspective.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah, I'm on about 5 hours' sleep but it was worth it to see someone actually win a major rather than be handed it by crumpling arseholes as is normally the case.

The main enemy of the computer are game-raising bastards who come out of nowhere after shoddy runs of form, Rahm wasn't that (he was just too short) but Hideki and Mickelson definitely were, as have a few others been.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I am back. Watched the epic 8 hole playoff on Sunday and was just itching to have been on one of them. I live for the chase.

Rocket Mortgage

Only 8 events left on the PGA Tour now, only 4 of which are 'regular' events, of which this is one. The build-up to the Open is very much in swing and the Americans are already having a cry about the British covid rules being more stringent than theirs (if there's one thing the yanks are great at, it's living under a rock). As such this event in Detroit has a very weak field and it's those, like several last week, desperate for a late run to keep their Tour status for next year who are worth keeping an eye on. That is with one exception. Bryson DeChambeau plays this event due to his personal sponsorship from the exciting-sounding Rocket Mortgage, and last year he basically walked it on a course which while not necessarily rewarding length per se, did reward his 'hit it and find it' philosophy, with very little trouble where he misses it. This should give him and other streaky bombers an advantage this week.

DeChambeau 7/1
SW Kim 45/1
Bradley 45/1
Grillo 50/1
Pak 400/1

Irish Open

Last year the Irish Open was a low key affair played in a wet September slot in front of more cows than people. This year, Mount Juliet provides a slightly less bleak and more conventional test as the first of the Open warm-ups in Europe, and this is a proper field, too: McIlroy, Lowry, Tommy, Bez, Kaymer, as well as the likes of Dick Bland and the rest of the weekly Euro cast. A proper menagerie of stars (including Rahm and a load of top Americans) join them in Scotland next week, but this should be a good event in its own right and with McIlroy a bit short at 9/2, I've gone for a much-loved computer winner of the past, alongside some classy grinders.

Bezuidenhout 16/1
Pieters 50/1
Hill 50/1
Fichardt 80/1
MW Lee 150/1

All e/w

Bonus bet: the Ric Flair double - Si Woo Kim and Min Woo Lee to win - about 7,000/1

[Baz]

Ric Flair double :lol:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That double is incredible.

[Mike]

All over the double!

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Euro 2020(1) bets:

£5 on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to score a headed goal each @ 13


My only pre-tournament bet still standing. The rest were pretty tragic.

Just waiting on Lukaku.

[Kikó]

On the golf.

[Manc]

Putnam for the Rocket @150/1.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bryson appears to have sacked his caddie during the warm up, this could be a wild ride.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

SCIENCE working again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bryson appears to have sacked his caddie during the warm up, this could be a wild ride.

He's +2 thru 3 and hitting 3 wood out of deep rough on 4. RIP Bryson.

The Woos however starting 67-68 :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://i.ibb.co/yy5FFP3/mwl.jpg

There is no need to feel afraid.

[Baz]

Really wish I'd done it EW.

[Jimmy Floyd]

More frustration last week with four (I think) top 20s but nothing landing.

Scottish Open

The European event gets top billing this week because for the first time since Covid, it genuinely deserves it. This has long been the traditional warm-up event for the Open, but rarely can I remember a field as strong and deep as this on our shores outside the Open itself. There was no Open last year and so a lot of the newer American stars find themselves with zero experience of golf over here: the cold, the wind, polite applause and guttural roars from the fans rather than the whoopin', hollerin' and get-in-the-holes that you have in the States. Rahm, Thomas, Morikawa, Schauffele, McIlroy, Hatton and Fitzpatrick headline but there's also a real depth including first-timers in Europe like Zalatoris, Burns and Scheffler. The only disappointment is that for covid reasons, they aren't using one of the Scottish links classics, but instead Renaissance, which provides a test but not of the authentic seaside sort. If it rains - and for the clue here look to the name of the tournament - scores could be pretty low.

Morikawa 14/1
Conners 40/1
Palmer 66/1
Rozner 80/1
V Perez 100/1 nap
Kawamura 175/1


John Deere Classic

As the great and the good depart the US for a couple of weeks, we now move into the truly yee-haw section of the American golf season as those who have not made the Open stay behind for a few of their own hoedowns in the late season scramble for career salvation and tour status next year. Nowhere is this better encapsulated than at the John Deere Classic, sponsored for decades by the tractor folk and hosted somewhere deep in the Midwest. There is also the carrot of an Open spot for the winner - usually JD put on a charter flight to take them from Illinois to whichever rugged windswept part of the coastal British Isles they need to get to. The field here tends to be weak and unusually for a full PGA Tour event, the bottom quarter or so are genuine no hopers. For this one I've stuck to those who have something to gain here, as well as wily veteran Steve Stricker.

Stricker 50/1
Stanley 60/1
Howell III 66/1
Laird 125/1
Villegas 250/1
Shelton 250/1

All e/w

[Manc]

Vegas 66/1
Kizzire 45/1

[Baz]

Not really sure where to post this but here will do.

I’ve mentioned before that I follow a tipster for horse racing. I’m in a telegram chat group and everyone chats pretty much all day. Jon Oster used to be in it. Anyway, a “pornstar” called Elle Brook has joined, presumably in a desperate attempt to get horny perverts to subscribe to her only fans or whatever she uses. :cab: It’s a bit weird. Posted a pic of herself naked besides and England shirt with a dildo halfway up her bits. Then when called out on whether it was genuinely her she posted a video saying the name of the group chat. Then today she posted her miming along to Three Lions, with [presumably fake] jizz dripping out her mouth.

Most of the group seem to be enjoying it but when I’m scrolling through the chat looking for insider tips (“info”) I’ve now gotta be wary in case my wife catches a glimpse of some dolled up girl with cum in her mouth. :moop:

[Kikó]

DM.

[Baz]

DM.

NSFW: https://anonfiles.com/ReYdyc5euf/IMG_2533_MP4

[Manc]

She's really exploring all revenue streams. Fair play.

[Lofty]

I'm need to see the rest of the evidence to be sure.

[Manc]

Does this chat cover the national hunt season? If so I want in.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Min-Woo couldn't do this last week?

[Baz]

Slabhead to score please :happycry:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Obviously on Minwoo a week early, fucking raging. At least Palmer came home.

[Baz]

Obviously on Minwoo a week early, fucking raging. At least Palmer came home.

A lad in my betting group had €50on him 150/1. Four and a half Gs, motherfucker. Obviously aftertimed seeing some YouTube video of him tearing it up at St Andrew’s.

[Lofty]

Three Lions 2022 Christmas Number One?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Open

After a two-year wait, the best tournament in golf (for my money) is finally back and despite various types of Covid chaos, the field is still as strong as you would hope for a major championship. Britain has a far stricter covid regime than America does - over there, once you're vaxxed it's basically pandemic over for you. Here, regardless of vaccination status, we have heavy restrictions especially in professional sport and especially where contact tracing is concerned, something that has put a few yank noses out of joint. Hideki won't be playing and nor will Bubba Watson, Kevin Na or Zach Johnson. Matthew Wolff has also withdrawn for 'unspecified reasons', while there's another reason for the absence of Sungjae Im and Siwoo Kim - they are preparing for the Olympic tournament in a couple of weeks, which for them as Koreans is far more important than any major championship, because a medal will get them out of military service and thus allow them an unbroken tour career, something which tends to ruin most Korean golfers in their prime.

Anyway, back to Sandwich on the Kent coast, which saw two surprise winners in its most recent Opens, with Darren Clarke winning in 2011 and Ben Curtis in 2003. Sandwich is an old links which tend to play pretty firm whatever the weather - although as I type this on Monday it is shitting it down across the south, things should dry out as the week goes on and a sunny weekend is in prospect. Wind speeds don't look like getting up to anything outrageous so the carnage of 2003 should be avoided, but it will still be a tough test with a shit ton of blind shots (which pampered pros hate) and nasty hay waiting for errant shots.

I haven't had time to write the usual essays on this one but the research has gone in and spat out the following seven names for each-way backing (11 places with Skybet):

Oosthuizen 25/1
Fitzpatrick 33/1
Reed 35/1
Grace 50/1
Fowler 66/1 (shoot me)
Cink 125/1
Senior 500/1

And these side bets:

Top Japanese: Hoshino 5/2
Top Amateur: Bairstow 11/2
Richard Bland top 20: 6/1
Richard Mansell top 40: 11/2
Jack Senior top 40: 11/2
Darren Clarke top 40: 6/1

[Manc]

Love the Grace and Oosthuizen picks. Thoughts on Koepka?

What betting sites are people using in this day and age? Looking for value and a clean app.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I very very very nearly included Koepka. Of those priced under 20/1 he would be my pick.

[Manc]

Can you get odds on a 1-2 finish?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Skybet have a dual forecast market, yeah, imagine others would too.

I've moved most of my golf stuff over to them now as they get odds up on time on a Monday.

[Manc]

I've gone Oosthuizen, Grace & Leishman all E/W.

[Jimmy Floyd]

As Morikawa steams into an unanswerable lead, it should come as no surprise to recall that I backed him last week. Every fucking time.

[Manc]

Grace with an eagle at the 7th. There's hope yet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A nice quad from him at the 9th to crush said hope.

I have to say, the most satisfying aspect of tipping up golf is when you plump for a Jack Senior at 500/1 and after 30 holes he is doing the business. It rarely sticks the landing (these people are 500/1 for a reason) but it reassures you that the methodology is sound.

Louis on course for another comfortable runner-up finish which will be OK.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Louis :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Well placed but I am left rather wishing that instead of Morikawa, Spieth and Dustin Johnson within four it was, say, Keith Mitchell, Ted Potter Jr and Frank Lickliter II.

[Manc]

What on earth happend to Fowler?

I'm all in on Louis now. A place and I'll get my money back, a win sees me £150 up.

[Manc]

Louis. :(

[Jimmy Floyd]

I can kind of take that, he needed 67 for a playoff, not sure he had that in him. Morikawa was supreme all week. Bit disappointed I discounted him from the running but I thought he hits it too straight and would need a year or two under his belt to win this one.

He's heading for a hell of a career, what a player.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Indulging myself with 7 picks in each this week as there are quite a lot of 3 figure dallies in there.

3M Open

Grillo 30/1
Todd 60/1
Dahmen 70/1
Kodaira 150/1
Hoge 175/1
McCumber 400/1
Pak 400/1

Cazoo Open supported by Gareth Bale (lol)

Van Tonder 33/1
C.Kim 40/1
Geary 50/1
Guerrier 80/1
Farr 125/1
A.Fitzpatrick 125/1
Leon 125/1

[Lofty]

Cheers Jim, hopefully a good weekend.

[Jimmy Floyd]

In semi-related news I'm now inside the top 80 in the global fantasy Euro Tour standings (not sure how many play, around 50,000 perhaps), now absolutely bricking it with my picks for that each week. Christ knows how those at the top of the fantasy PL global rankings psychologically deal with it. Every wrong move is a bomb.

Captained the last two major winners - Morikawa as a result of forgetting to change my team after the previous week. It's only the true greats who scale the heights.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm disappointed that McCumber isn't actually "McCucumber" which is what I first read his name as.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Hundred (cricket)

Oval Invincibles 11/2 outright

[Manc]

Feeling Bubba.

[Baz]

Rhys Enoch top 20, 5/1
Jack Davidson EW (6p), 400/1

[Lofty]

Won a grand on the Postcode Lottery today, which was nice.

[Manc]

:cool:

Did you make the TV ad?

[Lofty]

No door knock, just a shiny gold envelope from the postman. Was genuinely confused until I opened it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Probably the worst Thursday in living memory for the computer. I need to stop backing streaky knobheads.