The Betting Thread

[AJ23]

I'm going for 'Villa to win and both teams to score'.

Villa love to win whilst conceding goals. Asensio and Rashford have added a new dimension, Villa are pushing for Europe again, and Palace's last two home games have ended in 2-1 defeats.

I'm getting odds of 19/5 on that. A tenner would pay out £48.

Might also double that up with Brighton v Bournemouth 'both teams to score'. 2 very forward thinking teams with goal threats all over the place. A tenner on the double would pay £74.

Looking at Wednesday's Premier League matches, I think 'both teams to score' on all 5 games is a really good looking bet. Fiver would pay £61.

[Ben]

Leeds are the best Championship side on record by my numbers. Stick them in the BPL as it is and they're probably top half. Sheff Utd would get relegated.

https://i.imgur.com/KkSjT4w.png

Translating across divisions is hard so there are error bars but odds on at Brammal Lane doesn't seem too farfetched.

What sort of stats do you pile in to get something like this?

[phonics]

Is the time these withdrawals are made at a display of problematic behaviour. Probably. But if you turned 150 quid into this would you not continue to be problematic?

https://i.imgur.com/WjIn8mk.gif

[AJ23]

Did you get the funds in the end? Ladbrokes are pretty good for me for paying out. I usually get the money within an hour. Skybet is instant withdrawal but they've blocked my account :henn0rz:

I found a site a while ago who also pay out quite quickly. They let you win at first on casino, but then take it all back. Drawing you in.

Happened to my mate too. Once you're £500 up, close the account. I actually got £1.5k in profit but then it was on the take after that, no matter what game I played, what day or at what time - https://gentlemanjim.bet/

[SincereTheRebel]

Is there some type of online account, where for example. A group give me £20 for betting purposes but I make it publicly visible to everyone involved so they can see I haven't ran off with the bank? Then in the event of death, somebody of my choosing can still gain access to the bank? Is that a thing?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2gl2n2n14o

Get to fuck Paddy Power.

[Waffdon]

The hubby has definitely been playing under her name and had to prep her for that

[Luke Emia]

Is there some type of online account, where for example. A group give me £20 for betting purposes but I make it publicly visible to everyone involved so they can see I haven't ran off with the bank? Then in the event of death, somebody of my choosing can still gain access to the bank? Is that a thing?

My first thought with this post was that Mellin was back.

[AJ23]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2gl2n2n14o

Get to fuck Paddy Power.

Good on her to beat the bookies. The amount of times they try to screw you when you win is incredible.

I heard a story of a guy once who won such a big amount on a horse race and the bookies told him to come back the next day because they didn't have enough in their safe to pay him out for the full amount.

When he went back to the shop the following day, they tried to make out he was drunk at the time and must be mistaken, that they'd paid him what they owed him.

Disgraceful, shameless bastards.

[SincereTheRebel]

My first thought with this post was that Mellin was back.

Good days. Paypal Pool it is.

[SvN]

Good on her to beat the bookies. The amount of times they try to screw you when you win is incredible.

I heard a story of a guy once who won such a big amount on a horse race and the bookies told him to come back the next day because they didn't have enough in their safe to pay him out for the full amount.

When he went back to the shop the following day, they tried to make out he was drunk at the time and must be mistaken, that they'd paid him what they owed him.

Disgraceful, shameless bastards.

Yep, they'll do anything to avoid paying out. Feels like I've seen countless stories about jackpots being blamed on "computer error" over the years.

[Baz]

Some golf bets to get free bets for Cheltenham next week

LIV Hong Kong EW 7 Places
Brendan Steele 66/1
Charles Howell 80/1
Yubin Jang 70/1

Started next week with a sweaty favs 5 fold on Majborough, Constitution Hill, Ballyburn, Jonbon, Teahupoo & Galopin des Champs to turn £30 into £500.

[AJ23]

Just seen this online from someone who betted on this for £500k. From 0.44p. It's always one that lets you down.

Would have been an absolute huge win. I'd have cashed the fucker out if it got to £10k.

https://i.ibb.co/RpSrsP0K/482091178-122204120228231984-4345774633340713102-n.jpg

[John Arne]

Bayern - Bochum at 18/1 :drool:

[John Arne]

Full time, Bayern 2-3 Bochum :drool:

[Lofty]

Nicely done.

[Ben]

What we thinking today gents?

1.20 Kopek Des Bordes Evs, Tripoli Flyer 25/1 EW
2.00 Jango Baie 17/2
2.40 Henry's Friend 12/1
3.20 Lossiemouth 4/6
4.00 Constitution Hill 8/13
4.40 Total Look 8/1
5.20 Transmission 9/2

Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill as a double. Brighterdaysahead is improving massively and is the stand out on paper to me, but she's a very inconsistent jumper and the Cheltenham fences might be her downfall.

[Waffdon]

Wouldn’t say she’s inconsistent at jumps, she’s incredibly good but she can’t touch god.

I’m on the disgusting 4 fold and went for mostly accas for the week. I’ve joined the dark side.

[Lofty]

Listened to the Long Shot Value preview and todays e/w picks were:

Workahead/Irancy
Touch Me Not
Sequestered/Stay Away Fay
Gala Marceau
Liam Swagger/Static/Teriferma
Kyntara/Gericoult Roque

[Ben]

Sequestered is a good shout. It was a toss up for me.

[Waffdon]

Connie Hill has been boosted by Skybet and 365. We’re doomed

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's been a while.

THE PLAYERS

Fleetwood 22/1
Rai 40/1
Poston 90/1

EW

[Ben]

Oh Jango you beauty. How the fuck did he win that. :D

[AJ23]

Gonna go for Stay Away Fay as an each way bet.

[Waffdon]

Majborugh clipping that fence is going to save the bookies’ bollocks

[Ben]

Loads I know were on that 4 fold.

I need two winners from the last three for nearly £10k. One of which is Conny.

[Waffdon]

Aye, just have to for FOMO more than anything else. Not to be. The big man doing the business in 15 mins will set the week up perfectly. Lots of lovely short priced favs left this week.

[Ben]

I like you're so confident. I'm on him too but not feeling super confident like with Kopek and Lossiemouth.

[Waffdon]

I wouldn’t be as confident if the acca was still on for the sweaty fore some

The money is also being punted on him which says a lot. I was confident in him beating a cracking pony in Lossiemouth in his comeback race after a year off so today should just be inevitable.

Unless that Elliot horse is a freak but I’m still unsure. State Man getting beat twice doesn’t really impress me. On Golden Ace to finish 2nd

[Ben]

Well then.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You should have put it on the S&P 500.

[Manc]

[https://i.postimg.cc/KzfVDD7x/Screenshot-20250311-160531-Samsung-Internet.jpg

:rasta:

[Waffdon]

Yeah not end of the world :cool:

https://i.ibb.co/Q3TRgBMy/IMG-2082.png

[AJ23]

Absolute shit day for me so far. I was looking at Puturhandstogether and went against it last minute.

I've just come back from the pub where most have lost money too.

Good to see a few of you doing better.

[Ben]

Jonbon boosted to 7/4...

[AJ23]

I'm going for The New Lion in the 1.20pm. I think he'll have too much for Final Demand in the closing stages.

Potters Charm is worth an E/W bet at 14/1 in my opinion. Has the pace. All depends whether he jumps well or not.

[Ben]

1.20 Final Demand 6/4
2.00 Ballyburn 8/13
2.40 Sandor Clegane 16/1
3.20 Stumptown 3/1
4.00 Jonbon 10/11
4.40 Unexpected Party 6/1
5.20 Gameofinches 4/1

[Waffdon]

I’ve got Final Demand, Jonbon, Stumpton and Ballyburn all in various accas for the rest of the week so them 4 winning would be nice. Ballyburn was 6/5 on Sunday, he’s been backed like he can’t lose.

Probably going to do a trixie on the 2 Skelton horses in the handicaps and stick The New Lion in as well in case he’s a good ting

[AJ23]

Beat the Bat for me in the 2.40pm. Currently 9/1. Has to be an E/W with 5 places paid.

American Mike or My Mate Mozzie in the 4.40pm. Might go for both. That'll do. Really hope I get back on track today.

[Ben]

The New Lion getting backed in and ITV all over this Challow Curse for McManus. Nailed on then.

[AJ23]

Get in there. I thought he'd have too much towards the end. Beautiful. I saw a recent race where he was on the bridle cruising after the last fence and just kept pulling away. He's also got that dog in him if he needs it.

[Waffdon]

The New Lion getting backed in and ITV all over this Challow Curse for McManus. Nailed on then.

He wasn’t? He was joint favs at various points in last few days and drifted to 3/1 today. Skelton’s are different gravy at Cheltenham unlike that joker Nicholls

[AJ23]

Yeah I was surprised The New Lion drifted so much. He was the best finisher in the race.

[AJ23]

Impose Toi is a massive market mover in the 2.40. Nicky Henderson is a huge bonus. Now into 11/2. Hmmmm.

Still fancy Beat the Bat. Also considering Ballyadam but up 4lbs from the same race last year when finished 2nd. With Blackmore on board, there's always a chance.

[AJ23]

Ballyburn is looking shaky so far. Almost went there :eek:

[Waffdon]

Bookies having a field day

[Ben]

He wasn’t? He was joint favs at various points in last few days and drifted to 3/1 today. Skelton’s are different gravy at Cheltenham unlike that joker Nicholls

Yeah fuck knows. Ed Chamberlain was saying it, then they put the board up after he finished and it said 3/1 still.

[AJ23]

Yeah fuck knows. Ed Chamberlain was saying it, then they put the board up after he finished and it said 3/1 still.

I made 4x my money on it. Madness at that price.

Glad I didn't go for Ballyburn. What a mess. Everything went wrong.

[Waffdon]

Impose Toi is a massive market mover in the 2.40. Nicky Henderson is a huge bonus. Now into 11/2. Hmmmm.

Still fancy Beat the Bat. Also considering Ballyadam but up 4lbs from the same race last year when finished 2nd. With Blackmore on board, there's always a chance.

Jesus, thought you were going to mention the tricast at a point there

[AJ23]

Jesus, thought you were going to mention the tricast at a point there

Haha, I think they've finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I'd have been gutted if I'd done the tricast there.

[AJ23]

What's everyone thinking in the 3.20?

I fancy Mister Coffey in this. All in the spirit of Green Mile :cool:

Less weight than Stumptown and Galvin although I do like Galvin as a horse. His best days might be behind him but you never know.

Vanillier and Latenightpass are also on my mind.

[AJ23]

Tremendous finish from Stumptown.

I think Vanillier would have won that though, without that stupid wrong turn. Arrgghhhhhh.

[Ben]

Stumptown saving my day.

[AJ23]

Stumptown saving my day.

I'm doing a lot of E/W bets so I'm making my money back from yesterday. Still a bit annoying because I had Vanillier and Latenightpass E/W with Mister Coffey.

So one of them winning would have given me the business back even better.

Still all in the places so can't grumble too much.

[AJ23]

Hope Galvin is ok. That's been a trooper of a horse. Maybe time to retire.

[AJ23]

Found a fifty and Captain Guinness for me here. E/W.

Solness could be a big problem though. I only see Jonbon winning.

[Ben]

Biggest bet of the week here. Well, until Friday anyway.

[AJ23]

I'm lumping on Solness. Fuck it.

[AJ23]

Damn.

[Ben]

The Bookies Festival.

[Waffdon]

So many big hitters falling or smashing into fences and effectively ending their races early on. Tomorrow and Friday is the day the punters fight back. And if not, we go again next year.

[AJ23]

Still. Third place Captain Guinness at 25/1. Blackmore doing the business again. Thank you Rachael.

[AJ23]

My mate Mozzie and American Mike E/W next. Then I'm done for today. Made it up somehow after yesterday's shitshow.

This has been a festival for the bookies so far.

[Ben]

Small dabble on Unexpected Party then a medium dabble on Gameofinches in the Bumper.

[AJ23]

I do fancy Gameofinches. I'll see what I can get out of the next race and then call it.

Still think it's better to walk away the way things have been going so far :harold:

[AJ23]

Megan Nicholls reminds me of an ex of mine. Similar looks and similar voice.

Glad I got rid of her. She presented herself very well in public but was a nightmare behind the scenes/on whatsapp.

You always have to watch out for those daddy girls who've been spoiled. Also, those posh girls are dirtier than most in the bedroom. Anyway. Back to the racing.

[niko_cee]

Isn't that what finishing schools are all about? Teaching them how to deepthroat etc.

[AJ23]

Isn't that what finishing schools are all about? Teaching them how to deepthroat etc.

Instagram likes tell them they're doing better than everyone else and are so desirable.

These stupid guys. Thinking with their wrong heads. Slipping into their DMs. Etc.

[Manc]

It's been a while.

THE PLAYERS

Fleetwood 22/1
Rai 40/1
Poston 90/1

EW

Following on Fleetwood. I'm also keen on Morikawa, MacIntyre and Kuchar.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I ride or die with The Computer, always and forever.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Following on Fleetwood. I'm also keen on Morikawa, MacIntyre and Kuchar.

Rai is down to 33/1 since I posted that, which I wouldn't take, and would instead take MacIntyre at 45/1.

Henley is on the radar as well but I can't imagine him winning back to back.

[Manc]

BDC looks a sure thing for LIV Singapore.

[Waffdon]

Fact to File and Teahuppo. They just don’t lose.

Denise, we’re coming for you and your super boosts

[Waffdon]

We beat the Denise Super Boost :cool:

[Ben]

Gone 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st today. :cool:

I don't do EW though. :(

[AJ23]

That was so impressive from Fact to File.

As impressive as The New Lion.

Now come on Teahuppo. Done an e/w on Bob Olinger too.

[AJ23]

Gone 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st today. :cool:

I don't do EW though. :(

Ahhhh mate. Do you ever do the places bets? Horses to finish top 4, etc? You whack a combination bet on that and you're laughing if you stick a £50 on it.

[Ben]

I don't do accumulators in general. EW I'll probably do if it's 16/1 or over, but it's rare something of those odds stands out to me.

[AJ23]

Go on Bob Olinger. Rachael Blackmore's day.

[Ben]

I thought Teahupoo was ready to kick on before that last hurdle but he had nothing extra when asked.

[Manc]

Someone check on Waff.

[AJ23]

Ginny's Destiny and Path D'oroux for me next.

Then Johnny Who in the 5.20 and I'm done for today.

[Waffdon]

Someone check on Waff.

Conflated and Wise Guy in the next two will make up for it

We keep puntin’

[AJ23]

Actually, Masaccio is also intriguing me. Might go for the tricast. Fuck it.

[Manc]

Conflated is absoutley thrown in here.

[AJ23]

Just got this feeling for Ginny's Destiny. Don't let me down.

[Manc]

Waff can't catch a break. Pole-axed the second last after a dream spin.

[Waffdon]

Had a trixie of Sixandahalf, Thecompanysergeant and Walking on Air so get your money on the latter to finish 2nd to follow suit with the others

I’m not sure Conflated was lasting home before smashing that fence but he certainly got my hopes going for 80% of that race

[AJ23]

Bugger. Now it's up to Johnny Who on the 5.20. I'm still up.

[AJ23]

Had a trixie of Sixandahalf, Thecompanysergeant and Walking on Air so get your money on the latter to finish 2nd to follow suit with the others

I’m not sure Conflated was lasting home before smashing that fence but he certainly got my hopes going for 80% of that race

Conflated ran a great race there. Was looking strong all the way with Ginny's Destiny. Then both just got overtaken and couldn't come back.

Mars Harper 4th at 100/1 is mad. Anyway was 125/1 second in the 14:00. Double each way on that would have been lovely.

[Ben]

Sa Majeste here after dodging the 4.40.

[Waffdon]

Bugger. Now it's up to Johnny Who on the 5.20. I'm still up.

No idea how he’s not won that

[AJ23]

No idea how he’s not won that

Raging. Was the best horse by far all the way. Rolled over at the end.

[AJ23]

Bet365 offering 2/1 for Bruno Fernandes to have 1 shot on target and commit 1 foul tonight.

That's tempting. He takes free-kicks and penalties and loves to get stuck in.

[Waffdon]

GDC, Dino Blue and East Indian Dock treble for tomorrow and nothing else

[Ben]

6 winners this week so I’m above water but Constitution Hill and Jonbon really stung. Gold Cup will save us.

[AJ23]

Also wouldn't be surprised to see Mourinho with his Fenerbache team beat Rangers at Ibrox.

They're 3-1 down from the first leg but Mourinho knows how to set up a team to win away, with passion and organisation.

Not convinced by Barry Ferguson either. Lost his first two home games in charge.

[AJ23]

Only a tenner so it's nothing too drastic if it doesn't come in. Seems like a good bet though.

https://i.ibb.co/h1DJ50pN/Screenshot-2025-03-13-at-18-28-00.png

[Waffdon]

6 winners this week so I’m above water but Constitution Hill and Jonbon really stung. Gold Cup will save us.

1/2 so I’m expecting Denise to employ the sniper at some point on the way round the course

[AJ23]

My mad bet from way back is still on course. Fingers crossed.

https://i.ibb.co/gLrKbhND/Screenshot-2025-03-13-at-20-11-17.png

[Lofty]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/mar/12/booze-and-bets-in-benidorm-welcome-to-the-costa-del-cheltenham

[Ben]

I'd hate every second of that place I reckon.

Watching this afternoon's racing in the local Irish bar, which ironically does the worst Guinness in town. :thbup:

[Waffdon]

Denise has super boosted GDC to evens and to rub it in further has also boosted East India Dock’s odds also. Away for a walk off the cliffs

[Ben]

FFS :D

Day 4

1.20 East India Dock
2.00 McLaurey
2.40 Dinoblue
3.20 Derryhassen Paddy, Wendigo
4.00 Galopin Des Champs
4.40 Shearer, Fairly Famous
5.20 Taponthego, No Questions Asked

[Waffdon]

The more I look at the Mares Chase the more I fancy Limerick Lace to do it again. May have to abort the treble. Will report back.

[Waffdon]

Winston-Davies done well to get that thing beat

[Ben]

Yeah he’s a knob.

[Ben]

Fuck. Off.

[Waffdon]

:lol:

Denise has taken this piss this week. First the Connie hill super boost and now GDC. She’s absolutely laughing.

If JP MacManus could do the quad and win the next two races that would be sound

[Manc]

3/1 for the Grand National.

[AJ23]

That one's fucked up a lot of people. Seen a tipster online who bet on the below, with loads of big combination bets. He was only waiting on Galopin Des Champs. His head has gone.

https://i.ibb.co/wFkdFNZ2/Gl8w-Wa-AWk-AA7qfo.jpg

[Waffdon]

People got 4/1 for him in November and thought they won the lottery

[Waffdon]

3/1 for the Grand National.

Stumptown the real value

[Ben]

I’ll back Stumptown like. Done me solid this week.

[Waffdon]

Itsontheline broke my heart last year. I’m ready to do it all over again.

[Waffdon]

As expected

[AJ23]

Beautiful backup bet. I couldn't ignore a name like that. Also had decent form.

https://i.ibb.co/HDdt9mn1/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-16-48-51.png

[-james-]

Italy shouldn't be a three digit price to win Eurovision on the exchange. Should be 30-35 or something.

Sweden will probably win but backing it at current price two months out would be fairly mental.

[Waffdon]

Couldn’t make this up. Sporting Index obviously felt pity on me.

https://i.ibb.co/1G1dnmBd/IMG-2126.png




How’s that happened then. Shame the R4 absolutely decimated part of that payout
https://i.ibb.co/JjrkH542/IMG-2127.png

[Ben]

Good man. Fuck the bookies after this week.

[AJ23]

Same sentiment as that. Fuck em.

[AJ23]

Decent little yankee e/w for £5.50 gets me £88. That'll do.

https://i.ibb.co/DfTY7FBn/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-20-37-36.png

[Waffdon]

Bit of change on France -31 @ 3.5 (highest I could do, would have done more)

[Jimmy Floyd]

Valspar

Conners 20/1
Smalley 33/1
Dahmen 90/1

[Manc]

My model has a real hard on for Ben Kohles 300/1 & Greyson Sigg 125/1 atm.

[Waffdon]

Denise is offering 2.75 for Conny Hill currently in the 15.30. Some balls on that bitch

[Ben]

Let's not go there again.

[Waffdon]

let’s go there

[Waffdon]

£10er on Puturhandstogether, Grey Dawning and Connie Hill @ 15s

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'll be in Munich for a lot of the Masters so not able to attack it with my usual vigour, but Scheffler is probably value even at his silly odds, and I like Shane Lowry this year.

[Waffdon]

Let's not go there again.

Mullins 3/3 and none were even hot favs. Uh oh.

[Waffdon]

4/4

How De Boinville is first choice jockey I will never know

[Lofty]

Grey Dawning's jumping was horse shit I thought.

[Waffdon]

Yeah it was, would have won otherwise. Lost ground every time.

[Waffdon]

All aboard Stumptown

[Manc]

Beauport and Vanillier for me.

[Lofty]

Yeah that's where my biggest punt is, a little each way on Stay Away Fay and Hitman too.

[Waffdon]

Another 1-2-3 for Mullins. Just end the sport, that cunt and his doped up horses getting away with murder.

Did stumptown fall early? I never heard him once

[Ben]

I had Hewick. Was going really strong until a mistake on a fence towards the end and that killed its momentum.

Stumptown never got going. Pulled up quite early.

[Jimmy Floyd]

RBC Heritage

Rai 30/1

[AJ23]

Put your money on Liam Cameron.

For all his bravado, Ben Whittaker is showing a lot of insecurities in person as he did in the ring.

I don't think even Andy Lee can save him. If he does, fair play to him. But I think Cameron is his bogey man. Body shots hurt him and were breaking him down.

Hence why he wanted less rounds.

Double it up with another bet.

[Manc]

Boreham Wood
Halifax
Notts County
Stockport
Torquay
York

24/1

[Waffdon]

Probably going to look like a tit but I proper fancy Villa to smash City here (based off the line ups anyway). -2 @ 19s and bet builder Rashford AGS, Marmoush 1 shot on target, City 2+ bookings and Villa to win

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://i.imgur.com/tR6MY3L.png

Anyone ITK?

[niko_cee]

All aboard the Pizzaballa train.

[John Arne]

Charles Maung Bo likely has the best motto of the lot.



I can do all things in Him


Quite.