The Betting Thread

[John Arne]

FML.

3-2 Japan.

[Manc]

Dubai

Meronk 22/1
Smith 33/1

AMEX

Sungjae Im 20/1
J.T. Poston 30/1

[John Arne]

Vietnam v Indonesia at 12/5.

Just kicked off. Vietnam under strengthened and Indonesia got a load of forriners.

[Don]

This guy we know as John :drool:

I'm currently liquidating all my assets in time to back South Korea/Japan against us in the quarters on 3 Feb :drool:

[John Arne]

I got 3 bets on various combos all backing Indo.

Amat just gone off with a bloody nose, but they should hold on.

[John Arne]

I've cashed out for £150.

10 minutes extra time and Vietnam are going for it.

[Manc]

Ras Al Khaimah

Hao Tong Li 40/1
Shinkwin 60/1
Veerman 70/1

[Manc]

The Hojgaard transatlantic double is definitely happening this year.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Pavon winning at Torrey is mental. A year ago I wouldn't have trusted him to win the monthly medal down the road.

[Manc]

Pebble Beach

Difficult to see past Spieth or Homa for this one. 16s the pair.

[Don]

I've been eyeing up this bet for over a few months now and the time is now. Iran vs Japan on Saturday at 11:30. Japan at evens outright. I have the best part of a K on it and some on -2 at 8 because I have ridiculous girth. I'll probs have more before KO.

Japan not been as dominant as expected and have a GK that Utd scouts deemed a talent so there's seriously weakness there but thankfully we have no system, no legs, no manager, no star player (sent off in previous round) and no hope. Cracking streams to be found on Bet365 with English commentary for those that will tune in. Mitoma is also back fit but that matters not, they don't need star players, their style matches up perfectly to our bs.

[Don]

I'm done at 2K.

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4D22AQEG9osvvm3--A/feedshare-shrink_2048_1536/0/1695284227631?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=ERuuK2g-Y2nG44yTCNmB5Jo9OZNrRXrISiwVneMLJt0

[Manc]

Phenomenal effort.

[Don]

:drool:

[Ben]

Tremendous. :D

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

You ok, mate?

[Baz]

Ouch

[Don]

Incredible day at Don towers. Had £200 on BTTS on all 4 later prem games at 10. 91st min Sheff Utd goal chalked off by VAR :D

[Lofty]

I did think I bet that has fucked someone.

Shaw, Fernandes and Casemeiro to get booked, 30/1.

[John Arne]

My paddypower account got shut down (fortunately, I withdrew $600 a week before. And, fair play, they sent me the final $30 in the account when I asked... although they could have done this when they shut the account.

Anyway, which sites are the best nowadays, and more importantly include Vietnam football? Season restarts in 2 weeks, and we've already had 5 players from the second division recently arrested for match fixing https://cadn.com.vn/clb-ba-ria-vung-tau-cham-dut-hop-dong-voi-5-cau-thu-ca-do-post290631.html

:drool:

[Waffdon]

Villa on Wednesday around 2.15 is surely a train

[Manc]

Phoenix Open

JT 10/1
Kitayama 70/1

Qatar Masters

Larrazabal 40/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm on Homa at 20/1.

[Baz]

Nunez to score a header and Nunez to score from outside the box 100/1

[Lofty]

Villa 5/1 to win here is tasty.

[Baz]

Done a variety of bets involving David Hancko scoring for Feyenoord. :yn:

[Baz]

1756775019902894486:thbgrin:

[Manc]

Genesis Invitational

Burns 25/1
Finau 28/1
Theegala 30/1
Wyndham Clark 35/1
Si Woo Kim 55/1

Going all out for the win.

[Baz]

Welsby, Makinson and Percival to score tries @ 10/3

[Waffdon]

Newcastle at evens is very generous

[Baz]

Numerous goalscorer bets on Mats Deijl (Go Ahead Eagles) at big prices. :yn:

[Manc]

Kenyan Open

Catlin 33/1
Kawamura 35/1

[Waffdon]

Over evens for Liverpool to win in 90 mins. :|

[Baz]

I’ve done a few bet builders:

Salah 2+ goals
Nunez goal involvement
Liverpool win

Van dijk so score a header
Nunez to score a header
Diaz 2+ shots

Diaz goal involvement
Bradley goal involvement
Liverpool win

[Lofty]

Just out of interest do you usually do bet builders before lineups are announced? Or was it a cup final thing?

[Baz]

Yes to both

I don’t normally do bet builders

[Waffdon]

Constitution Hill 13/8 for Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham because he has a cold.

Might be the greatest value in horse racing history

[Baz]

That is indeed madness. Unload the wheelbarrows.

[Ben]

I’ll be in the stands for that as well. Scenes.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Been a while since I've bet.

Haaland to score 2 or more
Haaland hattrick
Haaland to score from a De Bruyne assist
Man City -3
Bruno/Casemiro/Dalot/Garnacho to be booked.

[Kikó]

Case red is free money no?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Case red is free money no?

Probably get hooked at HT on a yellow.

[Baz]

Constitution Hill 13/8 for Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham because he has a cold.

Might be the greatest value in horse racing history

He’s out. :thbdn:

[Waffdon]

Nicky Henderson is a sassij

[Manc]

Leeds
Leicester
Peterborough
Mansfield
Ipswich
Southampton

10/1

[Waffdon]

Put £15 on Leeds, Ipswich, Barnsley, Mansfield & PSG

[Waffdon]

Fuck off, Mansfield.

[Manc]

Over 2.5 goals 50/1

Roma v Brighton
Qarabag v Leverkusen
Benfica v Rangers
Marseille v Villarreal
Ajax v Villa
Olympiacos v Tel Aviv
Haifa v Fiorentina
USG v Fenerbahce

[Baz]

I’ve never really paid attention to royal ascot but some bet slips for the Saturday will be a good wedding present. When do people usually start churning out antepost picks for it?

Also there’s a lad on Reddit called YTGriffo who posted an insane ante post treble. So gutted I didn’t get involved. I’d link it but reddits being an arse on my phone.

[Manc]

Over 2.5 goals 50/1

Roma v Brighton
Qarabag v Leverkusen
Benfica v Rangers
Marseille v Villarreal
Ajax v Villa
Olympiacos v Tel Aviv
Haifa v Fiorentina
USG v Fenerbahce

7/8. :vomit:

[John Arne]

Unfortunately my account got shut down, but if anyone else wants free money..

Kicking off in 50 mins

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HA HAGL) v Ho Chi Minh City FC

[Baz]

Go on then

[John Arne]

HAGL are shit and just sold their best player, and loaned their manager to another team...

[Lofty]

Ho Chi Minh in the mud.

[Baz]

Losing 2-1 at HT. still confident?

[John Arne]

Fucking bunch of useless twats. Hope we get relegated.

[Baz]

Work is disappointingly busy this week. I’ve planned poorly.

[Ben]

Just printed off my tickets. Tattersalls Tuesday to Thursday. No Gold Cup this year.

[Waffdon]

Is Friday not the worst day anyway?

It’s getting worse every year for the declarations. They need to reduce it by a day. The novice chase would be brilliant but instead they’ve got them all scattered because some are in that dreadful amateurs race tomorrow evening and others are in the Turners.

[Ben]

Tuesday is definitely the best day.

[Waffdon]

Definitely.

Especially when Willie’s odds on horses cock up :drool:

[Lofty]

Willy Hill's also offering a free £5 bet per day no deposit or bet required.

[Baz]

Cheers. Their odds seem garb but a free fiver's a free fiver.

[Waffdon]

All my alt accounts are banned on there. Paddy offering £5 free bet too.

[Waffdon]

Gevrey @ 34s in 14.50 EW. mon the rain.

[Lofty]

Just put him in my acca, his form suggest he will either piss it or keel over, no inbetween. Hopefully they have been trying to drift his price pulling him up.

[Waffdon]

Tempted to lay Lossiemouth as well. Distance an unknown and they heavy rain this morning should only make it more difficult.

[Waffdon]

Just put him in my acca, his form suggest he will either piss it or keel over, no inbetween. Hopefully they have been trying to drift his price pulling him up.

4th last year in a race here. Won a mini national in Ireland and runner up in Irish National so staying the trip won’t be an issue. Hopefully it’s a quickly run race and he peels them off like Corach Rambler

Edit: similar can be said for Kitty’s Light who loves the soft and long distances so will put a few quick on that as well in same race

[Lofty]

365 Superboost is State Man at evens.

[Waffdon]

Folk have definitely made absolutely bank on that Mullins treble. Sickening

[Baz]

Indeed :youpi:

[Manc]

Mullins with the first five home in the opener. The sport is dead.

[Waffdon]

Another short priced fav. :lol:

Backed both for once with El Fabiolo and couple favs tomorrow

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wyndham Clark for THE PLAYERS (I just love writing it out in caps), outrageous value.

[Baz]

Liverpool -2

[Baz]

Easiest money I’ve made this year

[Waffdon]

Just nearly spewed in the betting shop. Waterford Whispers must have traded at well under 1/2 in play. Was about £50 up after yesterday and stuck £35 on GDC, Limerick Lace and Waterford Whispers at 15/1.

Also had a 25p Lucky 31 on them 3 plus Majborough (13/2) and Itsontheline 2/1 so maybe it’s a good thing the latter got done going up the hill as I don’t think my heart could have taken that. Think I’d have got about £220 back if Waterford Whispers did win though so still £780 down the fucking drain.

And to make things worse I forgot to back Jim’s shout on the golf. DISGUSTING

[Ben]

Wyndham Clark for THE PLAYERS (I just love writing it out in caps), outrageous value.

You beauty. Cashed out for half like a shithouse though.

Also had last two at Cheltenham for a great day.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cashed out for half like a shithouse though.


You will therefore have very much enjoyed him, tied for the lead on 17 tee, chucking a ball down onto the grass without a tee peg and then chunking it like a weekend hacker into the lake about 40 yards short of the green.

[Lofty]

David Potts 10/1 to win celeb big brother, worth a few quid.

[Ben]

Some geezer (mate of a mate) supplied us with a massive trends document for Cheltenham, which suffice to say I did great from. Anyway, the week kind of reignited my passion for the horses so I've wasted my evening learning Python and I'm currently scraping every jump race result since 1998 from Racing Post, in anticipation of discovering trends for every course/meet. :drool:

Shite tips incoming.

[Lofty]

David Potts 10/1 to win celeb big brother, worth a few quid.

Never in doubt.

[Lofty]

Everton 11/2 to get relegated but with another points deduction potentially on the way, rumour is Dyche has upset the apple cart with a misjudged joke during their Portuguese warm weather training. Wouldn't be surprised if they come back even shitter than before now.

[Baz]

Some geezer (mate of a mate) supplied us with a massive trends document for Cheltenham, which suffice to say I did great from. Anyway, the week kind of reignited my passion for the horses so I've wasted my evening learning Python and I'm currently scraping every jump race result since 1998 from Racing Post, in anticipation of discovering trends for every course/meet. :drool:

Shite tips incoming.

Thanks for sharing it :moop:

[Ben]

To be fair I only got given it in paper form on the Tuesday morning.

[niko_cee]

Everton 11/2 to get relegated but with another points deduction potentially on the way, rumour is Dyche has upset the apple cart with a misjudged joke during their Portuguese warm weather training. Wouldn't be surprised if they come back even shitter than before now.

Think we need to hear the joke first.

The next points deduction is only going to be four at most, it won't be enough to sink them. There are always, somehow, three teams shitter than them in the league. Unflushable.

[Waffdon]

Thanks for sharing it :moop:

It was short priced favs galore. Not sure much form reading was needed

[Lofty]

Think we need to hear the joke first.

The next points deduction is only going to be four at most, it won't be enough to sink them. There are always, somehow, three teams shitter than them in the league. Unflushable.

I don't know what the joke was but apparently he has tried to banter Nathan Patterson during a team meal at a restaurant but no-one found it funny, instead ended up kicking off and Tarkowski had to pull Dyche away from the table to calm things down :D

[Baz]

Done a bet builder on everything that means 0-0 in tonight’s England match.

[Lofty]

I'm sure you are all too wise anyway but just in case: hearing a lot of horror stories about MGMBet so I would swerve them. Saw one the other day where they settled an extra place horse winner as a loser because 'too many horses pulled up during the race' :D

[Baz]

Because March is a kicker in the bank due to a number of financial obligations, I've just done £100 worth of antepost on Cheltenham. :happycry:

Has anyone got any antepost selections for Royal Ascot?

[Baz]

I’m 18 mins late but there’s rumours of the [female?] ref wanting a bit of limelight and is keen to make sure San Marino win their first game in however many years. Probably helps that they’re against St Kitts and Nevis.

[Baz]

Matt Whitley to score a try in each half seems overpriced at 100/1 (skybet)

[Baz]

Brentford Hope 14:05 Haydock

Wins

[Ben]

Carrying a lot of weight that Baz, although he did fuck the handicappers last time out too. I'll go for Mr Mackay, 8/1 seems long.

Tanganyika in the 2:40 looks a good price too.

[Ben]

Also Frankie Dettori's Newgate looks way overpriced at 17/2 in the Dubai World Cup 16:35.

[Baz]

Brentford Hope 14:05 Haydock

WinsOi oi.

[Ben]

Also Frankie Dettori's Newgate looks way overpriced at 17/2 in the Dubai World Cup 16:35.

Some Juddmonte horse took the lead straight out of the stall and just fucked off. Incredible stuff.

[Waffdon]

Shambles from Ben.

Went with Baz for Brentford Hope. The other two I think are still running.

[Ben]

:D

[Ben]

Some geezer (mate of a mate) supplied us with a massive trends document for Cheltenham, which suffice to say I did great from. Anyway, the week kind of reignited my passion for the horses so I've wasted my evening learning Python and I'm currently scraping every jump race result since 1998 from Racing Post, in anticipation of discovering trends for every course/meet. :drool:

Shite tips incoming.

This has been great fun. I decided the way to go was rather than just predict the finishing positions, I would instead try to predict the running time of each horse. The data scraping took me a week or so and then I had another week of errors because I'm shit at Python still and also didn't really understand how regression models and machine learning work.

Anyway, I finally had a breakthrough on Sunday night and the back testing was successful so last night I thought I'd try to predict today's racing. Unfortunately I've only set it up for chase races using 2018-2023 data so far (partly because I kept running into self-induced errors using the full dataset, but also I think my CPU won't cope with it all together) and there's a whopping two chase races today and they're both at the clown course Hereford so we've got just two shitty Class 5s, so not the best start. That might be a blessing in disguise though because I've not cracked the input of racecards yet so it took a lot of manual work to enter today's 15 runners into the model.

Today's predictions:
14:30 - #3 wins in 248.8303s (2nd #6, 3rd #2)
15:30 - #2 wins in 333.093s (2nd #4, 3rd #1)

Actual result:
14:30 - #3 wins in 248.9s :eek: (2nd #5, 3rd #2; paid 3 places)
15:30 - #5 wins in 336.6s (2nd #4, 3rd #2; paid only 2 places)

14:30 returns a win at 15/2 and a place at 11/4.
15:30 returns a place at 3/1. The predicted time for the actual winner was 336.2674s so again, incredibly, pretty bang on. Just turned out to be a slower race than anticipated.

I haven't obviously just stumbled across a quick route to millions but this is so much fun. It seems like it might be a good predictor, I just need to find a way to input racecards that isn't 100% manual for this to be worth bothering with, it takes way too long as it is. I'm excited to see what is says for the National on Saturday. Although I feel this model might work better for flats (less random opportunities for falls, even more trend indicators like stall draw).

[Manc]

Does the model account for juiced up Irish runners?

[Boydy]

This has been great fun. I decided the way to go was rather than just predict the finishing positions, I would instead try to predict the running time of each horse. The data scraping took me a week or so and then I had another week of errors because I'm shit at Python still and also didn't really understand how regression models and machine learning work.

Anyway, I finally had a breakthrough on Sunday night and the back testing was successful so last night I thought I'd try to predict today's racing. Unfortunately I've only set it up for chase races using 2018-2023 data so far (partly because I kept running into self-induced errors using the full dataset, but also I think my CPU won't cope with it all together) and there's a whopping two chase races today and they're both at the clown course Hereford so we've got just two shitty Class 5s, so not the best start. That might be a blessing in disguise though because I've not cracked the input of racecards yet so it took a lot of manual work to enter today's 15 runners into the model.

Today's predictions:
14:30 - #3 wins in 248.8303s (2nd #6, 3rd #2)
15:30 - #2 wins in 333.093s (2nd #4, 3rd #1)

Actual result:
14:30 - #3 wins in 248.9s :eek: (2nd #5, 3rd #2; paid 3 places)
15:30 - #5 wins in 336.6s (2nd #4, 3rd #2; paid only 2 places)

14:30 returns a win at 15/2 and a place at 11/4.
15:30 returns a place at 3/1. The predicted time for the actual winner was 336.2674s so again, incredibly, pretty bang on. Just turned out to be a slower race than anticipated.

I haven't obviously just stumbled across a quick route to millions but this is so much fun. It seems like it might be a good predictor, I just need to find a way to input racecards that isn't 100% manual for this to be worth bothering with, it takes way too long as it is. I'm excited to see what is says for the National on Saturday. Although I feel this model might work better for flats (less random opportunities for falls, even more trend indicators like stall draw).

Care to share what you've got?

I've been wanting to do similar for a while but machine learning makes my head hurt.

[Lofty]

Build us a full sheet for Aintree, please.

[Ben]

Does the model account for juiced up Irish runners?

If they've run in Britain before then yes! If there's some fresh blood then unfortunately not. It wouldn't be difficult to build in Irish data but I think I'm limited by CPU. I'm still adding in GB data from previous years and that's the priority at the moment. Hopefully I don't hit a memory error.


Care to share what you've got?

I've been wanting to do similar for a while but machine learning makes my head hurt.

Sure. I'm not at home until tonight so I'll paste up the code then. There's a load of models in the 'sklearn' package. I tested a few and ended up using RandomForestRegressor (DecisionTreeRegressor was also a good one). Also import train_test_split also from 'sklearn' to test the accuracy (R-squared?) score for your model. And of course 'pandas' to read the csv data input.


Build us a full sheet for Aintree, please.

Will do. My model accuracy score yesterday afternoon (for those Hereford predictions I posted) was 0.990 (max=1) and last night I added in another couple of years worth of data which brought the score up to 0.993. That is pretty huge. In the National (about 9 minutes run time), the 0.990 score leaves a margin of error of around 5 seconds; 0.993 shaves about 1.5 seconds off that margin of error, so if I ran the model on the race as it is, each horse would be within ~3.6s of the predicted time. Obviously the more I can bring it down the more accurate it will be, because even though 3.6s over 9 minutes is great, 3.6s can still cover a handful of positions. Given the number of years worth of data still missing from the model, I reckon that score can get >0.996 and then it could get tasty.

[Boydy]

Sure. I'm not at home until tonight so I'll paste up the code then. There's a load of models in the 'sklearn' package. I tested a few and ended up using RandomForestRegressor (DecisionTreeRegressor was also a good one). Also import train_test_split also from 'sklearn' to test the accuracy (R-squared?) score for your model. And of course 'pandas' to read the csv data input.

Yeah, it was sklearn I was looking at before. It was cleaning the data and all that shit beforehand I didn't know what to do with.

Had no idea what model I should be using or anything either. Did you just experiment with some?

[Ben]

Here's one for today from the model.

15:00 Market Rasen - War Lord (#1) has the fastest time but margin of error means a lot of overlap. Going off this I'd bet on it at 6/1 or more. It was 8/1 earlier, but drifted to 12/1 in the last hour.

16:00 Market Rasen - Coolmoyne (#9) was a good EW shout at 13/2 earlier (~50% shot for a top 3) but has been backed right in to 9/2F at the moment. The model has it as the winner but not that confident.

[Ben]

Yeah, it was sklearn I was looking at before. It was cleaning the data and all that shit beforehand I didn't know what to do with.

Had no idea what model I should be using or anything either. Did you just experiment with some?

Yep, loads of trial and error. I'm using RandomForestRegressor now but I went through loads to get there. There could easily be a better one out there still, but I just ran with it because it had a decent accuracy score right off the bat.

Data cleaning I feel your pain. Luckily my data scrapes in a somewhat logical fashion to begin with and as my Python skills still aren't great, I use Notepad++ to clean it up instead.

Cutting down my time spent on this is vital. Ideally it'd be ran on every race and the model would pick out a handful of value bets. As it is now, I'm inputting a limited number of races so I'm falling into the trap of trying to see value in something that probably isn't there, as the pain of admitting there's no good bets to be had after wasting an hour is not what you want.

[Baz]

EW double, let’s have it.

[Lofty]

Choo choo.

[Ben]

War Lord out to 16s now. :D

Something must not be right in the stables for a drift like that.

[Ben]

Our boy there was out in front and got excited and fell. :D

Since a few of you followed in, I'll put the stats up for transparency. As you can see it was anyone's race and I mentioned War Lord because his odds were so much longer than his chance. The drift this morning might have been from some stable info. I watched the race and it was incredibly slow (looked like it was pissing down). Bet365 paid 3 places (#5, #7, #4).

I've also added the 16:00 race below too. Bet365 paying 4 places.


15:00
num pred(s) min max WIN%
1 295.7262 293.6725 297.7942 20.58%
2 299.1247 297.0474 301.2165 3.73%
3 297.0416 294.9788 299.1188 14.06%
4 296.8301 294.7688 298.9058 15.11%
5 296.4196 294.3611 298.4925 17.14%
6 296.6480 294.5880 298.7225 16.01%
7 297.1812 295.1174 299.2594 13.37%

16:00
num pred(s) min max WIN%
1 266.4029 264.5529 268.2659 0.12%
2 264.2181 262.3833 266.0658 12.93%
3 264.2582 262.4231 266.1062 12.69%
4 267.2189 265.3632 269.0876 0.00%
5 264.4423 262.6059 266.2915 11.61%
6 262.9835 261.1572 264.8225 20.16%
7 278.7130 276.7775 280.6620 0.00%
8 281.3068 279.3533 283.2740 0.00%
9 262.7363 260.9117 264.5736 21.61%
10 262.8642 261.0388 264.7024 20.86%
11 267.8636 266.0034 269.7368 0.00%

[Baz]

I’ve been told Not So Sobers in the 16:35 at Market Rasen. Was 16s but 8s now so looking promising.

[Ben]

A solid EW. :thbup:

[Ben]

Boydy


import pandas as pd
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

df = pd.read_csv('data.csv', low_memory=False)
# drop the column you want the model to predict
X = df.drop(columns=['secs'])
# insert the dropped column as y
y = df['secs']
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

model = RandomForestRegressor()
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

score = model.score(X_test, y_test)
score

model.fit(X.values, y.values)
predictions = model.predict([ [# insert data input here] ])
predictions

[Boydy]

Cheers.

What's your original dataset look like? And what's your cleaning process?

[Boydy]

Also, I found this a while back which might be useful - it's a Racing Post scraper: https://github.com/joenano/rpscrape

[Ben]

That's what I'm using. :thbup:

I'm having to make everything numerical. Luckily the scraper has a unique ID for courses, jockeys, horses, owners etc., so the only converting I need to to is things like Going (assign each type of Going a static number so the model knows it's a variable).

[Baz]

Is this Mellcorp/Bazbot version 3? :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Masters

Hideki 19/1
Zalatoris 40/1
C.Young 50/1

[Ben]

I'm liking Zalatoris for a top 5.

[Waffdon]

I get Cameron young and smith mixed up so backed them both EW with Delta Work and Coko Beach respectively in the National.

Also backed the fav in both on the nose with another pony at aintree. Plus all these at a couple quid:

Eckroat 200/1 £3ew
Si Woo Kim 67/1 £5 ew
Nick Taylor 200/1 £3 ew
Bhatia 90/1 £3 ew
Denny McCarthy 200/1 £2 ew
Hojgaard 200/1 £5 ew
Lampracht 500/1 £2 ew

[Boydy]

That's what I'm using. :thbup:

I'm having to make everything numerical. Luckily the scraper has a unique ID for courses, jockeys, horses, owners etc., so the only converting I need to to is things like Going (assign each type of Going a static number so the model knows it's a variable).

I grabbed some data for flats last night and all the jockey, horses, owners etc are text. :(

[Ben]

Go into your "rpscrape" folder and in there somewhere there's a settings.toml file - change jockey to false and jockey_id to true, then the scraper will get you the unique ID instead of their name.

[Boydy]

Ah, nice. Cheers.

[Ben]

Still doing chase only.

13:45 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 318.9453235 316.8966043 321.0072875 0.00%
2 319.0448103 316.9954521 321.1074175 0.00%
3 314.2452779 312.226749 316.2768564 50.56%
4 314.335812 312.3167016 316.3679758 49.44%
5 318.8265473 316.778591 320.8877434 0.00%

A two horse race apparently. #3 is 4/1 and #4 is 11/10F so both technically within range to bet on as they're splitting hairs. I'm on #3.

14:55 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 403.1735214 400.5837693 405.7800162 2.63%
2 398.5278056 395.9678948 401.104266 31.89%
3 413.0779144 410.4245422 415.7484405 0.00%
4 405.5922376 402.9869491 408.2143692 0.00%
5 399.5597048 396.9931657 402.1428364 25.39%
6 398.4222057 395.8629733 400.9979834 32.55%
7 402.3927372 399.8080004 404.9941842 7.54%

#6 is the favourite here (Shishkin) which is my own pick for this race anyway. I got 3/1 this morning. #2 currently at 10/1, great value there so I'm on that too.

16:05 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 361.8681354 359.5437051 364.2075931 0.53%
2 360.9506345 358.6320976 363.2841606 4.59%
3 357.3537595 355.0583268 359.664032 20.48%
4 368.0078002 365.6439322 370.3869505 0.00%
5 365.0159145 362.6712646 367.3757224 0.00%
6 360.0065107 357.6940384 362.3339331 8.76%
7 360.13138 357.8181055 362.4596096 8.21%
8 366.5636131 364.2090217 368.9334268 0.00%
9 359.529654 357.2202447 361.8539935 10.86%
10 365.4473379 363.0999168 367.8099349 0.00%
11 364.2069227 361.8674693 366.5615005 0.00%
12 357.6479656 355.3506431 359.9601401 19.18%
13 358.5243889 356.2214368 360.8422295 15.31%
14 364.9912479 362.6467564 367.3508963 0.00%
15 360.6309023 358.3144192 362.9623613 6.00%
16 377.0275139 374.6057085 379.4649762 0.00%
17 364.4870099 362.1457574 366.8433985 0.00%
18 373.5829117 371.1832324 375.9981048 0.00%
19 361.0257751 358.7067555 363.3597869 4.26%
20 367.3907344 365.0308301 369.7658954 0.00%
21 361.5741777 359.2516356 363.911735 1.83%
22 365.7874632 363.4378573 368.1522591 0.00%

22 runners whittled down to half a dozen. #3 currently 40/1 and Bet365 paying 5 places.

16:40 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 245.2348073 243.6595616 246.8202369 0.00%
2 244.6497904 243.0783025 246.2314379 0.00%
3 244.098749 242.5308006 245.676834 2.26%
4 244.8979661 243.324884 246.481218 0.00%
5 244.6303444 243.0589814 246.2118662 0.00%
6 250.0718257 248.4655098 251.6885264 0.00%
7 242.5611962 241.0031242 244.1293411 15.78%
8 241.9733979 240.4191015 243.5377426 20.95%
9 241.2270482 239.677546 242.7865678 27.51%
10 243.6564184 242.0913113 245.2316438 6.15%
11 244.646378 243.074912 246.2280034 0.00%
12 243.1180102 241.5563616 244.6897548 10.89%
13 247.9355266 246.342933 249.5384162 0.00%
14 244.6616726 243.0901084 246.2433969 0.00%
15 242.4843146 240.9267365 244.0519624 16.46%


If the Chase course is indeed Heavy (which it seems to be running as, despite the Soft designation), then the prediction is this instead


num pred min max WIN%
1 251.7068085 250.0899904 253.3340793 9.26%
2 253.1242964 251.4983732 254.7607311 0.64%
3 253.4395242 251.8115761 255.0779968 0.00%
4 253.6280571 251.998898 255.2677486 0.00%
5 254.1028269 252.4706182 255.7455878 0.00%
6 259.6992151 258.0310584 261.3781563 0.00%
7 251.1389081 249.5257379 252.7625074 12.72%
8 250.6973474 249.0870135 252.318092 15.41%
9 250.1839865 248.5769501 251.8014123 18.53%
10 252.6626538 251.0396959 254.296104 3.45%
11 253.5887208 251.9598144 255.228158 0.00%
12 250.7913294 249.1803918 252.4126816 14.84%
13 255.9766231 254.3323782 257.631498 0.00%
14 252.3380542 250.7171814 253.9694059 5.42%
15 249.9862663 248.3805 251.6024138 19.73%

#9 at 6/1 is my bet here.

[Waffdon]

I’ve got a fiver on Grey Dawning, Sir Gino, Shishkin, Bob Olinger & It’s on the Line

EW Yankee on Annamix, Unexpected Party, Ahoy Senor, Langer Dan & Honkey Tonk Highway ( fancying the Skelton’s a bit too much apparently)

[Ben]

A test run on the hurdles.

14:20 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 298.8479008 296.8924197 300.8162618 0.00%
2 268.9581739 267.1982731 270.7296662 0.00%
3 267.3825623 265.6329714 269.1436768 0.00%
5 263.3497793 261.6265765 265.084332 57.89%
6 264.2983304 262.5689208 266.0391307 42.11%

Pretty much reflecting the bookies market.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Has number 1 only got three legs?

[Ben]

Has number 1 only got three legs?

Never gone over hurdles before and bookies have it at 125/1.

[Ben]

Last one for today.

15:30 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 316.1211111 314.0526044 318.203242 0.00%
2 315.86569 313.7988546 317.9461386 0.00%
3 312.5245235 310.4795507 314.5829655 29.68%
4 316.5014083 314.4304131 318.586044 0.00%
5 316.2121808 314.1430782 318.2949115 0.00%
6 311.4359083 309.3980587 313.4871801 40.36%
7 312.4966974 310.4519066 314.5549561 29.96%
8 315.9155109 313.8483496 317.9962877 0


Not sure why it rates #6 so much (14/1) but I'm on it. Hurts to go against Langer Dan after Cheltenham.

[Waffdon]

Someone needs to blow Willie Mullins’ yard up. getting boring now.

[Manc]

Does the model account for juiced up Irish runners?

Nope.

[Ben]

26 out of 34 runners in the National are Irish. :harold:

[Ben]

Nope.

Yeah that was suss as fuck. All the others ran to predicted pace and this cunt just hit the afterburners.

[Ben]

A test run on the hurdles.

14:20 Aintree


num pred min max WIN%
1 298.8479008 296.8924197 300.8162618 0.00%
2 268.9581739 267.1982731 270.7296662 0.00%
3 267.3825623 265.6329714 269.1436768 0.00%
5 263.3497793 261.6265765 265.084332 57.89%
6 264.2983304 262.5689208 266.0391307 42.11%

Pretty much reflecting the bookies market.

Got the full finishing order correct and within 0.6s of winning time. :thbup:

Forecast payout was miserable, however.

[Manc]

The size of these fields. :sick:

[Waffdon]

Thought Ahoy Senor had that

[Ben]

These first few races seem very slow for just "Soft" ground.

Indeed the GoingStick has it the same as the National course which is officially Heavy.

[Ben]

What a finish. :cool:

[Lofty]

That was a mad race.

[Waffdon]

Yeah, that was special. Would be tops off if Ahoy Senor and Langer Dan got up on the line. EW will still pay I guess

[Manc]

Nice little preview for the National that. Engine trumps everything.

[Waffdon]

I’ve got a fiver on Grey Dawning, Sir Gino, Shishkin, Bob Olinger & It’s on the Line

EW Yankee on Annamix, Unexpected Party, Ahoy Senor, Langer Dan & Honkey Tonk Highway ( fancying the Skelton’s a bit too much apparently)

That Langer Dan drift to 19s was nice. Around £130 back off £10.20 if the last two Skelton runners place.

[Manc]

:moop:

[Ben]

Back in the office today so not got my laptop with me. Turned out alright yesterday in the end. 2 wins (including a forecast) and 2 EW.

Going solo on today's. 13:45 Aintree #2 and #5 reverse forecast paying about 12/1.

Boydy how you getting on with yours?

[Boydy]

Back in the office today so not got my laptop with me. Turned out alright yesterday in the end. 2 wins (including a forecast) and 2 EW.

Going solo on today's. 13:45 Aintree #2 and #5 reverse forecast paying about 12/1.

Boydy how you getting on with yours?

Haven't had time to actually grab the data without text yet and have a look at it.

I was reading this yesterday: https://medium.com/@chyun55555/data-preprocessing-methods-with-scikit-learn-python-98437e8d93cb
I was wondering about this bit:

However, label encoding must be used only in appropriate cases. For example, using label encoding in regression models could result in critical errors because regression models will identify 2 as a larger value than 1. This means that regression models will identify grape(2) to be more important than banana(1), which definitely is not true because fruits are not ordinal data in this case.

Do you think that numbers for the ids of the horses, jockeys, trainers etc is kinda wrong then? The ids aren't ranking them but the algorithm is probably gonna consider larger numbers more important?

[Ben]

I don't think so. I'm using a decision tree model rather than a linear one, so it wouldn't consider a higher ID more important than a lower one. My understanding of decision tree so far is that the decision trees will identify trends in the data for that ID (ie. this jockey_ID usually goes a bit faster than average at this course_ID).

I might be wrong because I still don't completely understand how it works, but I've found a few different githubs exploring various things using the same models and they are appearing to be using unique IDs in this same way.

I suppose a way to confirm it is to use GridSearchCV on your data to assess whether the unique IDs are having a negative effect (if at all). I might try this tonight.

EDIT: Just read a bit more. At worst the IDs will be useless to the model (but certainly not detrimental). But if the machine learns a trend between the ID and another input then it will use it, otherwise it is essentially ignored. So something like course_ID will certainly be useful to the model (because course trends are definitely a thing).

[Waffdon]

£20 on the McManus treble today.

Feel dirty for backing Jonbon

[Ben]

Dem Irish roids again.

Shame we didn't get the forecast but a win is a win. 6/4 looked a decent price after watching him fly in the last furlong.

[Ben]

Jango Baie flying there, would have probably won if not for that interference.

[Manc]

The Nicholls yard seems spot on atm. Pic D'Orhy, Kandoo Kid, Afadil E/W treble.

[Waffdon]

I have no idea why I backed Jonbon in this dirty treble as I fancy Pic D’ohry as well. This 2nd place finish is gonna be fun

[Waffdon]

Oh Jonbon baby

Tempted to whack it all on Corach to bring it home

[Manc]

FAVs galore.

[Waffdon]

It’s taken me far too long to realise it’s the way forward. These long shot Yankee’s are utterly pointless.

Trixie on Harry’s two favs in the next couple races and Zeeband in the last

[Baz]

Oh Jonbon baby

Tempted to whack it all on Corach to bring it home
Might as well. Race seems as tied up as Tiger Roll’s second one.

[Waffdon]

Lovely drift on him as well like last year

[Ben]

Yep I'm all over it at 7/1. The Model agrees.

[Baz]

Yep I'm all over it at 7/1. The Model agrees.
What does your model think of Janidil #8?

Highest odds at the moment at 150/1 but hardly ever doesn’t finish a race, 159 OR (and 171 RPR fwiw) feels like a solid EW.

[Ben]

Funny you should say that, I've stuck a few quid on it too. Model fancies it a bit. I'll post up all the times shortly.

[Ben]

num name pred min max WIN%
1 Noble Yeats 553.2005611 550.9610426 555.4491827 19.83%
2 Nassalam 556.965241 554.710482 559.2291651 0.00%
3 Coko Beach 555.9924704 553.7416494 558.2524404 0.54%
4 Capodanno 556.3125482 554.0604314 558.5738192 0.00%
5 I Am Maximus 555.2836849 553.0357333 557.5407738 5.44%
6 Minella Indo 564.162835 561.878938 566.4560155 0.00%
7 Corach Rambler 551.5773376 549.3443904 553.8193612 31.04%
8 Janidil 554.7460366 552.5002615 557.0009401 9.15%
9 Stattler 563.1266543 560.846952 565.4156229 0.00%
10 Mahler Mission 555.950639 553.6999873 558.2104389 0.83%
11 Delta Work 557.9633524 555.7045527 560.2313335 0.00%
12 Foxy Jacks 557.8414555 555.5831493 560.1089412 0.00%
13 Galvin 557.8162962 555.5580918 560.0836796 0.00%
14 Farouk D'Alene 565.5759083 563.2862908 567.8748326 0.00%
15 Eldorado Allen 556.4142034 554.1616751 558.6758877 0.00%
16 Ain't That A Shame 557.432053 555.1754041 559.6978745 0.00%
17 Vanillier 556.0602951 553.8091996 558.3205408 0.07%
18 Mr Incredible 556.066479 553.8153584 558.3267498 0.03%
19 Run Wild Fred 555.9159072 553.6653961 558.175566 1.07%
20 Latenightpass 557.557236 555.3000804 559.8235663 0.00%
21 Minella Crooner 557.259587 555.0036364 559.5247075 0.00%
22 Adamantly Chosen 555.0748866 552.8277803 557.3311268 6.88%
23 Mac Tottie 560.6568361 558.3871324 562.9357656 0.00%
24 Chemical Energy 557.6202132 555.3628027 559.8867996 0.00%
25 Limerick Lace 554.9643753 552.7177163 557.2201663 7.64%
26 Meetingofthewaters 555.7029279 553.4532791 557.961721 2.54%
27 The Goffer 555.882062 553.631688 558.1415832 1.30%
28 Roi Mage 555.2125269 552.9648633 557.4693266 5.93%
29 Glengouly 556.1774076 553.9258379 558.4381293 0.00%
30 Galia Des Liteaux 555.4376072 553.1890325 557.6953218 4.37%
31 Panda Boy 565.1879634 562.8999164 567.4853108 0.00%
32 Eklat De Dire 560.8592319 558.5887088 563.1389841 0.00%
33 Chambard 555.7844225 553.5344437 558.0435468 1.98%
34 Kitty's Light 555.871356 553.6210253 558.1308337 1.38%

[Manc]

McManus' horses being absoutley hammered in the market.

[Ben]

McManus' horses being absoutley hammered in the market.

Hope they keep going. Corach Rambler out to 17/2 now.

[Baz]

Hope they keep going. Corach Rambler out to 17/2 now.
Have you got BOG or keep going in?

Wish I’d have backed the 150/1 before posting and it clearly going viral. Had to settle for 117/1 with Hills’ weird boost. Max bet £40 too, was all set to get rich. :panda:

[Baz]

Sholing are playing Walton today.

Walton sacked there manager midweek and core players have all gone with him

3 of the back 4 and the GK have left

Sholing need the points as well

21/10

Stick it in a double with Farnborough who are playing Taunton.

Taunton playing their 7th game in 15 days.

Double is just over 2/1 with Denise. Free money? :henn0rz:

[Baz]

Also one for Giggles while I’m sharing dodgy info from my group :baz:

In the Nicky Rackard Hurling I’ve backed Kildare to cover the -14 vs Sligo.

Kildare 2 divisions above Sligo in the league and have been impressive. Huge gulf in class here.

Reckon they’ll win 20+

Kildare -14 10/11 (Boyles,Powers)
Starts at 1pm

[Waffdon]

Corach, west balboa, brighterdaysahead & Found a Fifty in doubles and trebles.

Bottled sticking 200 on Corach and settled for £50 at 8s

[Ben]

Have you got BOG or keep going in?

BOG

14:30 Aintree - Cruz Control 8/1

17:00 Aintree - Nickle Back 10/1

[Waffdon]

https://i.ibb.co/jZvjbVX/IMG-7924.png



Just hit 1000/1 on a 10p scratch card from Paddy Power’s 1 free spin a day thing :lol:

Not a chance Corach is winning now with that luck

[Ben]

Lump it on. McManus' luck has to turn some time.

[Waffdon]

Brighter days ahead is an absolute weapon. How did they get that best at Cheltenham

[Ben]

Glad I didn't bother with that race. Cheltenham spooked me so didn't fancy it at 11/10. Silly me.

[Waffdon]

BOG

14:30 Aintree - Cruz Control 8/1

17:00 Aintree - Nickle Back 10/1

Legend. Backed it in a trixie with BDA and flooring Porter in the next. mon

[Ben]

Cruz Control :cool:

Led start to finish. Thought it was getting caught a few times but great ride from Sheppard.

[Manc]

I've gone all in on Mahler Misson 16/1.

[Baz]

:sick:

[Ben]

Jockey just jumped off the cunt.

[Lofty]

Wife turns to me 5 seconds before the race is off and says 'I've got I Am Maximus in the work sweep, can you put me £5 EW on it?' :moop:

[Waffdon]

Well, that went well.

Mon found a fifty

[Manc]

Absoutley romped home. Future Gold Cup winner for sure.

[Clunge]

Sholing are playing Walton today.

Walton sacked there manager midweek and core players have all gone with him

3 of the back 4 and the GK have left

Sholing need the points as well

21/10

Stick it in a double with Farnborough who are playing Taunton.

Taunton playing their 7th game in 15 days.

Double is just over 2/1 with Denise. Free money? :henn0rz:
Taunton :D. My beloved Peacocks!

[Ben]

Whilst I've still plenty of tweaking to do on the chase/hurdle models to improve them, I've decided to have a look into flats because I've already got the data scraped.

Turns out flats might be a lot more accurate in a predictor (which makes sense as the distance is shorter, less non-finishers, draw bias etc.). My chase model is topping out at around 0.9955 accuracy with 25 years of data so I'd have to start adding in manually calculated indicators to improve it further (eg. previous class wins, days since last run, jockey form/quality) and then it gets really time consuming. I put in one year's data for flats with the same inputs as chase (plus stall draw) and it's straight to 0.9990 on first test. That could go up a bit more, or fall slightly, as I add in the other 24 years data I've got but it's a promising start. Retrospectively applied it to yesterday's meeting at Yarmouth (no flat meetings today) and got 3 out of 8 winners which is pretty decent considering no favourites won.

I need to get better at Python though because this is so time consuming. Although I'd otherwise be wasting said time on something that would definitely not be profitable in future years, instead of probably not profitable, and I'm having fun either way.

[Manc]

Milan, Lille & Fenerbahce to qualify 15/1.

[Manc]

Scottish National card at Ayr tomorrow. My two big fancies are Favour And Fortune in the Champion Hurdle & A Penny A Hundred in the Mares. 25/1 for the double.

As for the National itself Git Maker 7/1 looks the one to beat. Only 1 pound higher in the handicap after finishing second in the Kim Muir. The winner that day (Inothewayourthinkin) has since gone on to win a G1. Could potentially hack up. Mr Vango looks the best of the rest.

[Baz]

Go on then, £10 trixie. Choo choo..

[Baz]

Harry Derham double at Bangor. :yn:

[Ben]

Mr Vango for the Scottish National 12/1. Also Elvis Mail has drifted from 12/1 to 40/1 so unless something is going on in the stable, that looks way, way overpriced now.

Persian Time in the first race at 6/1.

[Baz]

Is it soft ground or something? Vangos a mud monster

[Baz]

Surprising how little coverage this (https://www.irishracing.com/news/Bookmaker-reflects-on-100-to-1-wager,-costing-industry-500k/247404) has had. Don’t think it’s even been mentioned by the Racing Post.

[niko_cee]

Look forward to the documentary about it in 30 years.

Such a corrupt 'business'.

[Ben]

Of course Racing Post won't acknowledge it, because it'll confirm what everyone already knows about Irish racing. I think it's very low risk that it would blow up mainstream, but it's not worth the chance.

[Baz]

Everton & Sheffield United double 63/1

[Ben]

Baz :cool:

What's the cash out?

[Baz]

I only put £2 on lol so it’s £7.75

Returns £127.50 later though :(

Gone in big on Bournemouth though so I’m flicking between the two

[Luke Emia]

As long as that useless cunt is upfront for us I wouldn’t worry about the Everton leg of it.

[Manc]

Zander Lombard 55/1 - ISPS Handa

[-james-]

Ukraine 12s e/w for Eurovision is certainly too big.

[Baz]

Shishkin’s dead :|

[Waffdon]

Seen that. Not a great year for Hendo.

Karma for not running Conny Hill more often IMO

[Ben]

Jesus. :|

What an awful year Henderson has had.

[Waffdon]

Did anyone watch that race at Punchestown?

A loose horse came from out of nowhere and decided to charge and spear the jockey off of the 2nd fav :D

[Ben]

Yeah I’ve been watching it. The usual Irish shenanigans. :D

[Baz]

Did anyone watch that race at Punchestown?

A loose horse came from out of nowhere and decided to charge and spear the jockey off of the 2nd fav :D

Paul O’Brien reportedly ‘very very sore’ but if he’s well enough to ride Sir Psycho at 16:15, worth an EW shot. Currently 14/1

Also Ballygrincottage at Uttoxeter tomorrow (17:45) is expected to win. :youpi:

[-james-]

1786342788872683875



This is pretty spot on for the state of play for Eurovision at the moment. Fuck knows. Hope someone copped the Ukraine 12s last week!

[Baz]

Paul O’Brien reportedly ‘very very sore’ but if he’s well enough to ride Sir Psycho at 16:15, worth an EW shot. Currently 14/1

Also Ballygrincottage at Uttoxeter tomorrow (17:45) is expected to win. :youpi:can’t ride so JJ Slevin takes the reins. Decent enough replacement, let’s have it

[niko_cee]

So it's not coming home then?

[Don]

Boycott it, you fucking fassyholes.

[niko_cee]

Are Israel still in it? I assume, if they are, that they have to qualify, so will probably avoid the ignominy of getting nul points in the final by suffering the less embarrassing fate of achieving the same in a semi nobody watches.

[Waffdon]

can’t ride so JJ Slevin takes the reins. Decent enough replacement, let’s have it

Harry Derham fan boy are we

I got on Brentford Hope the other day. Decent place money

[-james-]

Are Israel still in it? I assume, if they are, that they have to qualify, so will probably avoid the ignominy of getting nul points in the final by suffering the less embarrassing fate of achieving the same in a semi nobody watches.

They will qualify and probably finish in the top 10, especially if anything warranting sympathy happens while they perform. You can't vote against an act.

[-james-]

Early guess at left side of the board, with ranges of potential finishes

Ukraine: 1-3
Italy: 1-5
Croatia: 1-6
Switzerland: 1-5
Netherlands: 2-8
France: 3-11
Israel: 3-11
Greece: 4-11
Ireland: 5-16
Norway: 6-15
Sweden: 6-12
UK: 6-16
Belgium: 7-15
Lithuania: 7-20

[Baz]

Harry Derham fan boy are we

I got on Brentford Hope the other day. Decent place moneyI may have a close connection to him. :sst:

And yeah was 2nd despite top weight. Absolute monster of a horse.

lol that LongShotValue has tipped Mars Harper 80/1 in the same race as Sir Psycho. Let’s have it

[Ben]

In to 33/1 now.

[Boydy]

I had a fucking 26/1 shot win yesterday but it was in a mad accumulator that a bunch of favourites couldn't even manage places in so it was all for nothing.

[Boydy]

How's your ML going on the flat races Ben?

[Manc]

Hgranca De Thaix
Its On The Line
Ballyburn

50/1 treble

[Waffdon]

Wouldn’t be backing any of Townend’s short price favs after this week so far. At it

[Ben]

How's your ML going on the flat races Ben?

I think I'm slowly getting there. I still can't convert the JSON file for today's cards to a CSV for easy input but the accuracy is really good. Problem is, a top flat horse usually only wins 2 or 3 of their last 6 so the model could predict it within a half second and it might still not win. I manually inputted the racecards for Ascot this week and only come out with a couple of bets worth bothering with (11/2 win and 11/1 place), so a good strike rate but that was about three hours work because to get the model even more accurate I've created custom variables (jockey form, won previously in these conditions and class etc.) which takes a lot of clicking around on Racing Post to get the info.

If I could crack the JSON thing then it would allow me to run a full day's worth of races in a couple of minutes.

[Waffdon]

Hgranca De Thaix
Its On The Line
Ballyburn

50/1 treble

What a shout. Hope Derek O’Connor doesn’t break your heart like he did mines at Cheltenham

[Lofty]

I may have a close connection to him. :sst:

And yeah was 2nd despite top weight. Absolute monster of a horse.

lol that LongShotValue has tipped Mars Harper 80/1 in the same race as Sir Psycho. Let’s have it

Where did you see that tip? I got on a 40/1 thanks to you, cant see it on his twitter?

[Baz]

Where did you see that tip? I got on a 40/1 thanks to you, cant see it on his twitter?
On his private telegram group. I'm not a paying member but when he tips something in a race my group have "info" for, someone generally leaks it.

Glad you got on. :thbup:

[Waffdon]

Offft, Itsontheline wins it on the line.

Cash out must be tasty Manc

[Manc]

Through the roof. I've jumped ship. :drool:

[Waffdon]

I would. Either that or lumping a quarter of whatever the cash out is on it not winning at 7/2. Jockey has been a disgrace. Got to be at it.

Which doesn’t really make sense as you’d think he’d want to win on a few of them to get the jockey championship. Looks like Jack Kennedy should be fine now even with his ban in place tomorrow

[-james-]

https://eurovoxpop.uk/2024/05/06/eurovision-2024-post-rehearsals-forecast/

Some superb stuff on the Israel televote here that's encouraged me to get them green on Betfair. It doesn't take a huge contingent to swing the televote (see: UK giving Lithuania at least 8 points every year).

[-james-]

Though you can probably wait until after the jury votes have been announced and get them at 200/1 or something.

[Manc]

What betting sites are people predominantly using atm? I've always been a skybet man due to the price boosts specifically for the GGs, but the golf prices simply aren't competitive. I'm considering boylesports who offer decent value for eight places.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've been kicked out of betfair, so I use Skybet only, mainly because they put their markets up on time. If there's a good one I'd be interested in hearing but mostly it's a cartel I would assume.

[-james-]

You should have an account with all of them, and use whoever has the best price/terms for the thing you want to bet on, of course.

[Ben]

James is correct but I always default to Bet365 because I hate having a load of apps on my phone so I only have that one.

As with Jim, I've been turfed from Betfair.

[Baz]

I used to have the oddschecker app logged into every bookie you could name and place bets through that, but nowadays they’re all limited so I use [my mums] skybet almost exclusively as I’ve a second phone with bet365 on, but it’s usually too much fuss to bother with.

[Ben]

I use [my mums] skybet almost exclusively as I’ve a second phone with bet365 on

What, and what?

[Baz]

What, and what?When I was betting a lot, my accounts were restricted so my mum made some accounts in her name. I had a second phone (I’d love to say it was my old one but I bought I specifically for gambling on. Even has a Bet365 case :baz: )for the bet365 one to avoid it being linked to my restricted account. I previously bought bet365 accounts and used them on my phone but they ended up getting restricted too. Skybet don’t seem so bothered so I use that on my usual phone and never had a problem.

[Manc]

You should have an account with all of them, and use whoever has the best price/terms for the thing you want to bet on, of course.

Sadist behaviour.

At what profit are accounts being restricted?

[Ben]

My Betfair one wasn't even that heavy in terms of profits. I guess I just bet on the wrong stuff in their opinion.

[Waffdon]

You should have an account with every single bookie that offer sign up bonuses.

I normally use paddy power as their withdrawals are in your bank within 10 seconds. They’ve banned most of them in my relatives names but my mums and sisters is still going strong (with the same bank details. No idea how)

[Jimmy Floyd]

I never knew quite what happened with my Betfair, one day I just couldn't log in having been 'permanently excluded', maybe it was that time I successfully matched £100 on Vladimir Putin to win the Russian election at 1.18.

[Baz]

Sadist behaviour.

At what profit are accounts being restricted?

I suppose but I was way in.

Got to a point where I was weighing up between £25 and £50 a point, which would be more profitable in the long term. Went for £25 and got restricted really quick so in a blaze of fury upped to £100 and went down swinging. Was an exciting few days. :drool:

I’d say I miss betting so frequently but as much as the money was lovely, the discipline to dedicate chunks of your day to getting prices and placing bets was a pain. Once I got to a point where a big winner was ‘okay that tops the balance up’ rather than WOOOO GO ON HORSE I knew it was time to become more casual. Plus my tipster stopped being good. :stamford:

[Manc]

TTH should run a tipping service. Jim & Ben can cover the golf. Me & Waff the horses. Ones to avoid with Don. Eastern flavours provided by JA.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Can I take booking accas?

[Waffdon]

TTH should run a tipping service. Jim & Ben can cover the golf. Me & Waff the horses. Ones to avoid with Don. Eastern flavours provided by JA.

With my strike rate of 10% we’d be able to charge a premium fee of £25 a month and all the degenerates would be all over it

[Manc]

Can I take booking accas?

Sure. We could also rope in Lofty's mate for the boxing.

[John Arne]

I'd have to stick to fixed matches, my recent record on non-fixed games is pretty hit & miss.

[Baz]

Rodrygo to be carded 7/1

He’s got a message on his undershirt so surely if he scores, his shirts getting whipped off

[Manc]

McIlroy
Berger
Stricker

844/1

Dahmen 80/1 is my e/w punt.

[Ben]

13:30 Chester - Master Zoffany 20/1

[Baz]

13:30 Chester - Master Zoffany 20/1Not meant to be.

I swear Boardman (also raced) is a plot job. Get it down to like 80 rating by September and let it romp home at 66/1.

[Ben]

13:30 Chester - Master Zoffany 20/1

Hope nobody followed. Some shit "info" off one of the guys in my syndicate.

[Ben]

Israr looks good in the next at Chester but I going with Oviedo at 14/1 (2 places). Very good record last season and could have improved further.