The Betting Thread

[Baz]

Lyanco card, Milner to score, 23/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

PGA Championship (SkyBet, 8 places E/W)

First of all I should say I thought the Masters market was strangely bad this year, resulting in giant profits for me and others. I think this market is a lot tighter and am not seeing quite so many glaring errors. However, I've got six value players with the shekels on them.

Scottie Scheffler 11/1. I'm not going in quite as big as I was at 14/1 for the Masters, but double figure odds for a man playing like this is still worth taking, especially in a setting that isn't far off those where he grew up in neighbouring Texas.
Hideki Matsuyama 22/1. I'm still ride or die with Deki.
Viktor Hovland 25/1. Not sure how he's gone out this far. Maybe a bit of the Scheffler effect, maybe some stronger form for others. The guy is fucking class. 25/1, even at a major, is big. Also went to university just up the road so should be vibing.
Tyrrell Hatton 66/1. Not much to say here except he's really good, has shown decent form this year and I don't see why the course wouldn't suit him.
Tom Hoge 150/1. Has the game for a high finish here. Winner this year and not to shabby since. Long at this price.
Mito Pereira 175/1. This is just massive value. Should be 100/1 tops.

[Ben]

I agree with Hoge and Pereira. Got them both at 200's on Monday.

EDIT: Scheffler is my "all in" bet at 11/1. Went for some value bets outside of that with 8 places on offer: Bradley, Scott (both 90), Young (80), Hoge, Pereira (both 200), Vegas (160). Been looking at the guys in the 20's and 30's for a couple of days but think I'll leave it as this.

[Manc]

Following on Scheffler & Matsuyama. Speith & Lowry NB.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think Spieth has a decent chance but he's way too short to back.

[Offshore Toon]

On for the first time in a while. Let's hope for a good weekend of golf and a Newcastle top half finish. :drool:

[Ben]

Jonathan Woodgate going round here telling everyone he’s going to be next Salford manager. Was 12/1 earlier but word is getting around and he’s 6s now.

[Don]

Frankfurt look like real free money.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Mon the Mito.

[Kikó]

Jonathan Woodgate going round here telling everyone he’s going to be next Salford manager. Was 12/1 earlier but word is getting around and he’s 6s now.

Went well.

[Ben]

Fuck him, it’s all about Mito at 200/1 :cool:

[Offshore Toon]

Does this Mito bloke have a proper shot at winning? When does the comp finish?

[-james-]

Fucking hell Mito. First time I've followed in a while.

[Offshore Toon]

He was 2.2 earlier, now at 4. Find strength you little rat.

[Mike]

Fucking hell Mito. First time I've followed in a while.

First ones I've put on for ages too...

[Offshore Toon]

And me. What a train.

[Ben]

Looks like we’re all on Mito. A small taste of Mellinmania.

[Waffdon]

He will win purely for the fact I’ve never bet on any of these tips before and went to put him on but bet365 was down and by the time I remembered about it the first day was over. You’re welcome x

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm not sure how it'll go tonight. There are no previous major winners within seven shots, so I feel it's all about him and will his arse twitch. If it twitches early he won't win. If he gets through the first few intact, he's got a great chance.

[Ben]

I actually fancy Fitzpatrick if the wind stays up, even though that would cost me a lot of money.

[Don]

Brentford and Palace double and BTTS accy on all bar the City, Liv, Chelsea and Spurs games for big scenes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You need a Man U goal then. Get cheering.

[Offshore Toon]

At least I didn't lose the top half bet on goal difference. Over to you, Mito.

[Don]

:sick:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Mito's arse is looking a little twitchy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Swing has gone, he's not winning this.

[Ben]

Yeah I’m banking on Young here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

'JT' can fuck off.

Literally all of them are having a mare.

[igor_balis]

Looks like Mito might still stumble across the finish line thanks to the chasing pack totally bottling it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Buns of steel.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That tee shot he just hit on 14 was absolutely terrible. If JT finds a couple of birdies coming in he'll win it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I don't like it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Zalatoris's putting stroke is fucking toxic. I need to use eyewash every time he has one from 4 feet. Not this time though. Get to the burger van you skinny fuck.

[Ben]

One more fucking roll. Don’t like our chances if this goes to a playoff.

Well he’s not even making the playoff now…

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mito, mate. What the fuck. 3 wood you cunt.

[Baz]

Wet.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

You lot are ahead of me, I don't like how that sounds :(

[Waffdon]

For fuck sake

[Jimmy Floyd]

When I saw him standing over it with the fucking driver I put my head in my hands. Reminds me of van de Velde on 18th tee at Carnoustie.

[Offshore Toon]

That's so fucking disappointing. What a twat.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Par, par, birdie on his 3 visits on this hole the previous days and he does that.

[-james-]

Not watching but have been following the odds on Betfair. Was pretty pleased to see him at 1.2 about ten minutes ago, went to get a cup of tea and now he's out to 6. He must have done some terrible golfing.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1.83 on Betfair was the lowest I saw him at, up to 6 now :(

Edit: He went as low as 1.2? Fucking hell.

[Ben]

That tee shot gets worse every time they show it.

[Offshore Toon]

He was 1.25 on SkyBet. :moop:

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's been rushed the last few holes. Not sure if they're on the clock or what.

I can't be fucked with a 3 way playoff with those two specimens, put us out of our misery Mito.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Why wouldn't he just play it safe and aim for a par? :(

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He's not even making the playoff, he's completely gone.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He was trying to hit the low ball flight which was understandable as it's his favoured shot shape and given you get chase off the fairway, the mistake was using driver which can go very wrong to a greater extent than 3 wood or even a long iron.

He might run the place money at this rate.

[igor_balis]

He was trying to hit the low ball flight which was understandable as it's his favoured shot shape and given you get chase off the fairway, the mistake was using driver which can go very wrong to a greater extent than 3 wood or even a long iron.

He might run the place money at this rate.

Does the caddy take some blame? Is it partly his job to be like bro, wtf you doing, use the 3 wood?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That chip shot is disgraceful.

[Waffdon]

Unlucky lads. Sickening

[Jimmy Floyd]

Does the caddy take some blame? Is it partly his job to be like bro, wtf you doing, use the 3 wood?

Yeah, the caddie should be summarily fired (as Scottie Scheffler did to this same caddie a few months back, days before beginning his whirlwind run to world number one and Masters glory).

[niko_cee]

What he would have given for his playing partners shots.

[Offshore Toon]

I was so close to about 4k today. Think I'll end up with 500. Fuck sake.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm just grateful he got me £175 and didn't make me stay up until 1am to watch him go +5 in a three hole playoff.

Poor guy. I hope him or Joaco nick one soon.

[Offshore Toon]

£50 on 0-0 in CL final.

£20 (£10 of free bets included) on double 0-0 in both finals.

[Baz]

No offence but man I hope that doesn’t come in

[Don]

I'll double your payout myself. Goals guaranteed.

[Manc]

Charles Schwab:

Kevin Na 45/1
Troy Merritt 80/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

I only have one this week which is Sungjae Im at a frankly ludicrous 33/1.

[John Arne]

Does anyone have the ability to bet on a players next team? If so, happy to give you an insider scoop, you just gotta place some money for me too :)

Chiellini to LAFC. 60%-70% chance.

EDIT: this seems to be out in the public already :/

[Lofty]

Yeah that was on the BBC Gossip page yesterday.

[Ben]

Slower than BBC is an effort in itself.

[John Arne]

:) It came from an ACTUAL REAL ITK as well. What a waste.

[Ben]

Late to the party on the Charles Schwab. Got in on Hoge, Riley and McNealy last minute. Surprised how strong the field is, hard to pick between the favourites.

[Luca]

I only have one this week which is Sungjae Im at a frankly ludicrous 33/1.

I followed you in on this at slightly shorter (31/1) odds. Mon the Jimmy train.

[Baz]

31/1 :cab:

[Manc]

Huddersfield double 10/1.

[-james-]

In terms of money I've lost both backing and opposing specific teams over the years, no one comes close to Real Madrid. The Karius final a particularly sore one. We go again tonight.

[Offshore Toon]

Real Madrid with a very late goal, probably in extra time.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

On Madrid and various other side bets involving goals/corners/Benz.

[Luca]

Not looking good for our Sungjae. Brendon has been on a tear.

[Luca]

Got in on Real at 4.75. Tremendous odds.

[Manc]

Speith Sunday 50/1.

[Ben]

Got on Hoge and Mitchell for the Memorial while the odds are still large. Not on anything else yet, although I'm liking Matsuyama and Zalatoris here.

[John Arne]

Does anyone have the ability to bet on a players next team? If so, happy to give you an insider scoop, you just gotta place some money for me too :)

Chiellini to LAFC. 60%-70% chance.

EDIT: this seems to be out in the public already :/

Almost done. Also likely not to be a DP slot, either.

[Manc]

I like Cam Young & Zalatoris for Memorial. Rahm/Fleetwood double looks feasible.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Agreed on Zalatoris, not averse to Collin either despite his weird form this year.

[John Arne]

Vietnam U23 v Thailand U23 (nothing dodgy, just a prediction)

Vietnam U23's are trash nowadays, and also have a new manager who has never taken sole charge of the team.

[John Arne]

Get on this QUICK. Rumours that 10 Vietnam players have the shits. Kick off in 45 mins. Odds moving quick. I got evens.

[Offshore Toon]

Was already on but might as well go in more

[John Arne]

How’d it go?

Kick off in 1 minute.

[Ben]

According to Bet365, Vietnam 1-0 up after 20 seconds. :lol:

[Baz]

Ah yeah sorry just realised and deleted my post.

[Baz]

Vietnam already 1-0 up :D

[John Arne]

Oh god, what a start :D

EDIT: 17 seconds.

[Ben]

Thailand at 3.2 now, shall I pile on? :sherlock:

[John Arne]

Thailand at 3.2 now, shall I pile on? :sherlock:

I've just put another 40 on Thailand.

[Ben]

3.75 now so fuck it I’m on.

[Mike]

1-1. I got on it at 1-0

[John Arne]

The goalie isn't even on the take...

https://gyazo.com/da1b710212d9c7a289acac1ecbb822c4.gif

Livestream for anyone interested... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDvPx6XnYLY

EDIT: The scorer was Oxford midfielder Ben Davis (born in Phuket).

[Ben]

:D

[Ben]

Double sub for Thailand after 28 minutes. Vietnam keeper hooked after 38. Is this common?

[John Arne]

Double sub for Thailand after 28 minutes. Vietnam keeper hooked after 38. Is this common?

Vietnam keeper popped his finger when attempting to make the save above.

[John Arne]

Fucking shite Thailand.

I'm sticking to fixed games.

[Ben]

I’m a curse. I’ve just checked my account. I’ve won at least a place on golf every week for the past twelve weeks but haven’t won a non-golf bet outside of a free bet since 2021.

[Manc]

Weird flex.

[Ben]

Just seen that Matsuyama got disqualified for having an illegal 3 wood. Can’t say I’ve ever seen that before.

[Ben]

Zalatoris keeps the run going. Horschel was actually on my model's shortlist but apparently it thought 60/1 wasn't long enough. :moop:

[Ben]

Quite shocked that Sam Burns is as short as 14/1 for the Canadian Open, considering Scheffler, Thomas, Smith and McIlroy are in the field. Hopefully he drifts towards 20s otherwise I'm on Smith.

Kirk, List and Todd look good value bets at the moment.

[Manc]

Following on Smith. Fancy Munoz to be in the mix.

[John Arne]

Saudi Arabia Ủ23 v Vietnam Ủ23 just kicked off. Vietnam look big at 6/1.

Pretty sure I've lost my last 3 bets on this particular youth team.

[Manc]

Sweden DNB 9/1.

[Baz]

Make that 4 in a row.

[Don]

Peru at almost evens. Baz, can you pause the bot for 90 mins geez?

[Ben]

£9,321.09 on Peru?

[Luca]

Jimmy, what is THE MODEL saying about the US Open?

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's saying the same thing it's been saying with monotonous regularity for about six months now: Scottie Scheffler.

I might have time for a deeper look on Weds.

[Ben]

Mine's got Scheffler, too. But really, which model hasn't? 14/1 is a bit short but not bad. Smith at 20/1, too. The McIlroy/Thomas ding-dong yesterday has helped out somewhat.

[Lofty]

What is Baz's nap of the day for Ascot?

[Baz]

What is Baz's nap of the day for Ascot?Ive not really managed to get involved with any raving since Cheltenham really. :sorry:

[Baz]

Or racing.

:rave:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm going all in on mugilroy for the US Open. Got the bit between his teeth.

Zalatoris as my second option.

[Ben]

I'm not bothering with the favourites this week, they're all too much of a muchness.

Burns and Im are my main bets, with Horschel and Conners in there as well.

[Manc]

Sungjae
Burns
Woodland

[Manc]

Not great for the environment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Was going to say, you need to keep the box of matches away from that dastardly Korean.

McIlroy 10/1
Zalatoris 25/1
Bradley 80/1
Mansell 500/1

[Baz]

Let’s go Mansell. I was gonna do first round leader anyway so might as well go all in.

I’ve also started betting on cricket. :sorry:

Alex Carey top team run scorer (13/1) and top batsman (40/1)

[Ben]

Joaquin Niemann has an incredible record in first rounds if you want to go that route.

[Luca]

Was going to say, you need to keep the box of matches away from that dastardly Korean.

McIlroy 10/1
Zalatoris 25/1
Bradley 80/1
Mansell 500/1

This is looking really good going into the final day. I’ve got $$$ on the first 3.

[Manc]

Travelers Championship - McCarthy 60/1 & Dahmen 66/1.

[Manc]

BMW - Larrazabal 35/1.

[Ben]

On Mitchell and Hoge for now as they’re massive odds. Undecided on the win bets at the moment; McIlroy top of the pile for me but I don’t think I can commit at 10/1 so I’ll probably be on Scheffler or Burns and Sungjae.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Liv crew are all in walk of shame tee times together, no way any of them are surviving that. They'll probably all get banned mid round as well so it'll be their last ever event.

Travelers: Scheffler 9/1, Pereira 45/1
BMW International: Fox 22/1, R.Fisher 80/1, Lawrence 100/1

[Ben]

On Mitchell and Hoge for now as they’re massive odds. Undecided on the win bets at the moment; McIlroy top of the pile for me but I don’t think I can commit at 10/1 so I’ll probably be on Scheffler or Burns and Sungjae.

Burns, Niemann, Pereira, Fleetwood, Mitchell, Hoge.

Can't decide between Scheffler and McIlroy so staying clear of those 9/1 boys.

[Manc]

Pablo saving my bacon on the back nine.

Has anyone got a runner at The Travelers?

[Ben]

Mitchell sneaking a place is all I can hope for.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This amateur being in the mix is insane. I don't know what he was but guessing four figures.

[Baz]

I was planning on boasting about how there’s money to be made on the shorties in the early rounds of Wimbledon and show my sweaty favourites 1/4 acca, but my wife Serena might let me down yet.

[Ben]

A total second rate field for the John Deere this week. The odds are kind of all over the place as there's not a lot of form in the field so there's some good value to be had.

Small EWs on: Lashley, Duncan, Laird, Hubbard, Armour, Huh, Smotherman and Grillo.

One place will have me in profit.

[John Arne]

Noises that Young Elephants (LAO) are on the take in the AFC Cup. However, only one game to go and they face Phnom Penh Crown who have already been eliminated.

May be worth a little tickle.

[Baz]

Noises that Young Elephants (LAO) are on the take in the AFC Cup. However, only one game to go and they face Phnom Penh Crown who have already been eliminated.

May be worth a little tickle.4/7 :cab:

[-james-]

1541435101178888194


Fixes were very blatant in their first two games, this is them conceding in first half injury time last game. Cambodian sides are hardly known for their integrity so I'd fancy overs if anything.

[Manc]

John Deere - Svensson
Irish Open - Fox

[Jimmy Floyd]

The John Deere is usually a right laugh, even more so now it's being played opposite LIV Portland and Pat Perez is being wheeled out for media duties there.

I'm going to oppose you there with a similar but different pick of Taylor Pendrith, 66/1.

Irish:
Power 14/1
Rai 28/1
Kieffer 110/1
Tarrio 175/1

LIV (fast, die young):
Matt Jones 33/1

[Ben]

With you on Power for the Irish.

[Manc]

Cam Davis FRL.

[Baz]

Noises that Young Elephants (LAO) are on the take in the AFC Cup. However, only one game to go and they face Phnom Penh Crown who have already been eliminated.

May be worth a little tickle.

Now 1/3, with the team supposedly on the fix at 6/1 so looks like the cats out the bag and it should come in.

[Baz]

Winner! Shame I could only get £6 on.

[Manc]

Have conditions in bottom Ireland got considerably worse?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wind up from this morning but nothing outrageous.

Old Foxy (as I found out last week en route to a comfy place) loves throwing a shit round in when he's otherwise on it.

Meronk and Zanotti were on the computer list for this but I qual threw them out, the old computer's been right back on form of late. Need to throw my own judgements in the bin.

[Luca]

The John Deere is usually a right laugh, even more so now it's being played opposite LIV Portland and Pat Perez is being wheeled out for media duties there.

I'm going to oppose you there with a similar but different pick of Taylor Pendrith, 66/1.

Irish:
Power 14/1
Rai 28/1
Kieffer 110/1
Tarrio 175/1

LIV (fast, die young):
Matt Jones 33/1

Followed you in on the Irish Open folks, only to discover that you betrayed the computer with your ‘human judgment’. Nonsense. :nono:

[-james-]

Three good shite football bets today:

Bohemians Women SW (Ireland Women's National League)
Silas Marijampole SW (Lithuania I Liga)
Morocco women -2 (Women's AFCON)

On the singles, doubles and treble.

[Manc]

Meronk was always going to win after Jim's admission. I'll probably bet on Fox each week purely from a FOMO angle.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Zanotti with a place too.

The Computer strikes again.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Nothing for Barbasol or the Scottish Open?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Barbasol is an absurd crapshoot.

Scottish - Rahm, Jordan Smith, Anirban Lahiri

[Manc]

Scottish Open - Zalatoris, Fox & Rai
Barbasol Championship - Cook & Hahn

[Lofty]

Thought Penny Morduant would be a long shot dark horse for next Tory leader but she is 4/1 favourite.

[Lofty]

Sky Bet suspended all Scottish Open odds, someone dropped out?

[Ben]

I think they just close it in the transition from pre-tournament odds to in-play.

I’ve got a two day old baby so had no chance to boot up the laptop this week. Don’t think I’m missing a lot anyway; my model works with PGA Tour stats so the Scottish is very patchy in that regard and the Barbasol is shit.

[Kikó]

Congratulations Ben.

[Ben]

Thanks a lot. :thbup:

[Baz]

Norway -4 @ 4/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Open

We are back at St Andrews for the 150th Open, seven years after the last visit in 2015. The weather is fine, has been for a while, and the course already looks firm and fast - ideal links conditions, in other words, as long as the wind blows at least a little. This one is played against the background of all the LIV shenanigans, with a number of LIV players in the field. Otherwise it is a wide open field with any number of possible winners.

In looking for options I am drawn to the fact that, at Open venues, experience is a huge factor. I am always fascinated by the idea that Tom Watson nearly won in 2009 (aged 59) because the wind turned on day three and he was the only player - from 1977 - who had played the course in that wind. I was there that year and remember watching the boyish McIlroy hit a series of dreadful high approach shots into holes because he just didn't understand that links golf is played against history and nature, rather than against the mind of some high rolling course designer and his team of manicurists. Phil Mickelson didn't learn this for over 20 years, either, and then he did. Even Tiger Woods, who dominated here in 2000, had had a crucial go around as an amateur in 1995. As such, I feel that the seven-year gap since the Open was last played at the Old Course is going to count against some of the game's newer stars. Of the current world top 10, only McIlroy has ever played an Open here - back in 2010 when he somehow went 63-80 in the first two rounds.

So the winner here, as well as the obvious golfing ability, is going to need the sort of touch, versatility and imagination which I think can only be suggested via their record on true links tests.

Outright
Shane Lowry 22/1
Lowry, of course, grew up playing this sort of golf, has proved it with an Open win at Portrush, and I feel he is certainly overpriced here. Of all the players in the field, Lowry might be the one with the most versatile short game, which is something he is certainly going to need with the course dry as bone and all the humps and bumps coming into play. If he can control his trajectory from inside 100 yards I see no reason why he can't win a second jug this week.

Dustin Johnson 33/1
Not so long ago it was unthinkable that you would soon be able to catch DJ at this price, and many may waver after his LIV defection signposted (and he said in so many words) that playing pro golf isn't something he wants to do forever. However, if one casts aside all the baggage, I can't turn down the chance to back him here. Two Opens at St Andrews produced a best of T14, but he's had four top tens at the Open and is certainly not lacking in distance or the controlled ball flight that may well help him get extra assistance off the deck. My only concern is whether he is bright enough to think his way round this challenge - but if conditions are easier than expected, he could prove a hard man to beat.

Ryan Fox 70/1
Popular in this thread recently, I am sticking with Fox even in major championship conditions. He hits the ball far enough to be able to attack the scoring holes (particularly 9, 10 and 18). He has five Opens to his name and four made cuts, including a trip around St Andrews in 2015 which will have taught him the basics. He's also bang in form and I can see him getting amongst it this week.

Adri Arnaus 300/1
This may be going against my predilection for the over 30s, but Arnaus strikes me as wildly overpriced at this number. He is a quality ball striker, whose failure to break into the game's top 50 can largely be put down to his issues with the putter. Power off the tee, T24 at the Dunhill Links last year, form of late and two strong chipping weeks at the Irish and Scottish Opens present a stronger case than 300/1 would suggest.

Side bets
Top Englishman - Matthew Jordan 28/1. A strong field, but Jordan is a known links specialist who has a T5 at the Dunhill Links and, as an amateur, won the 2017 'St Andrews Links Trophy' - no idea what that is but it sounds pretty on-point. Somehow you get 4 places e/w for this on Skybet as well.
Top Lefty - Brian Harman 11/4. Favourite Bob MacIntyre has no form whatsoever, and Harman very much fits the mould of 2015 winner Zach Johnson. I'm not aware of there being much form for lefties around this ancient anti-clockwise layout, so even making the cut could be enough for Brian up against only MacIntyre and Phil Mickelson, Garrick Higgo and Sam Bairstow.
Top South African - Dean Burmester 8/1. The obvious pick here would be Louis Oosthuizen, whose win in 2010 and T2 in 2015 represent a pretty handy case. However, I think Louis's mind could be elsewhere just now and if he falters I like Burmy, one of my most profitable ever players, at this price. Skybet give you 3 places for this too.

[Jimmy Floyd]

NB: I quite like Big Tony as well but I'm fucked if I'm actually tipping him for a major championship.

[Ben]

Not looked properly yet but I’m all over Lowry for sure.

[Boydy]

5, 2, 1, 1 E/W on Jimmy's tips.

[Lofty]

Are they your words Jim, or the words of the computer?

[Jimmy Floyd]

For majors there's usually a lot more of me in there, as the markets don't make as many glaring errors. Computer flags names and I filter them with my own knowledge. Had a bad year on the majors in 2021 but extremely good so far in 2022, being all in on Scottie for the Masters, then had Mito for the PGA (still pains me most days, that) and was all over the US Open leaderboard like a rash but didn't back Fitz because every cunt had backed him in too short.

The computer is at its most powerful for run of the mill events, as the run of the mill players are always more motivated for these and the computer will pick up on quiet form trends among them. The sort of 40/1 - 100/1 range is sometimes where bookies make what to me are inexplicable errors. Mito 175/1 for the PGA was a classic example of this, should have been 100/1 tops and I said so in the preview post.

[Ben]

It seems Scottie Scheffler has been completely disregarded after last week so at 20/1 I'm going to take a punt on him getting to grips with the greens. Also going with Will Zalatoris at 30/1 because I think with his improving putting he's got all the tools to do it.

Talor Gooch is tremendous around the greens so I feel he's way overpriced at 175/1 and Russell Henley is high enough in all the stats to be worth a dabble at 200/1. I also feel I need someone in the mid-range so going with my usual Sungjae Im bet at 80/1.

[Baz]

I’ve been asked to join a would anyone be interested in a golf version of last man standing. Pick three golfers with a combined total price of 150/1, lowest aggregate score of the combined three wins. Any suggestions, before I accept?

Basically copied from this: https://twitter.com/golflms?s=21&t=1yGssE3DxSDbixVW9hzVkg

[Jimmy Floyd]

Late additions:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100/1
Jamie Donaldson 400/1

[-james-]

I’ve been asked to join a would anyone be interested in a golf version of last man standing. Pick three golfers with a combined total price of 150/1, lowest aggregate score of the combined three wins. Any suggestions, before I accept?

Basically copied from this: https://twitter.com/golflms?s=21&t=1yGssE3DxSDbixVW9hzVkg

Their competition odds aren't in line with the exchange, so absent of any golfing knowledge you could go for players who are shorter on Betfair compared to their list.

Schauffele, Homa, Finau sums to 150 in the competition but only 139.5 on the machine. :naughty:

Here's a comparison of relevant entries:

https://i.imgur.com/KfWROMf.png

Or you could just go with Jimmy's picks.

[Baz]

Very ianteresting.

I’ve sent

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125/1
Dustin Johnson 35/1
Shane Lowry 22/1

You can have 10% of my winnings Jim.

[Manc]

Xander
Power
Kisner

[Jimmy Floyd]

Properly miserable start for my lot, rubbed in by the big easy being -4 from 700/1 or whatever he was (narrowly went for +4 Donaldson over him as token OAP rolls royce pick).

[Jimmy Floyd]

In looking for options I am drawn to the fact that, at Open venues, experience is a huge factor. I am always fascinated by the idea that Tom Watson nearly won in 2009 (aged 59) because the wind turned on day three and he was the only player - from 1977 - who had played the course in that wind. I was there that year and remember watching the boyish McIlroy hit a series of dreadful high approach shots into holes because he just didn't understand that links golf is played against history and nature, rather than against the mind of some high rolling course designer and his team of manicurists. Phil Mickelson didn't learn this for over 20 years, either, and then he did. Even Tiger Woods, who dominated here in 2000, had had a crucial go around as an amateur in 1995. As such, I feel that the seven-year gap since the Open was last played at the Old Course is going to count against some of the game's newer stars. Of the current world top 10, only McIlroy has ever played an Open here - back in 2010 when he somehow went 63-80 in the first two rounds.

So the winner here, as well as the obvious golfing ability, is going to need the sort of touch, versatility and imagination which I think can only be suggested via their record on true links tests.

This is literally a manifesto for backing Ernie Els at a massive price and I didn't do it.

[Ben]

Of course he’ll have a brain fade at some point but McIlroy is looking ominous here. Both his ball striking and putting is on the money.

[Baz]

England Women over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5

[Manc]

The cream really has risen to the top in the Open. Minimal returns all round.

[Baz]

England Women over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5
Couldn’t quite finish them off, but decent profit nonetheless.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Top Lefty - Brian Harman 11/4. Favourite Bob MacIntyre has no form whatsoever, and Harman very much fits the mould of 2015 winner Zach Johnson. I'm not aware of there being much form for lefties around this ancient anti-clockwise layout, so even making the cut could be enough for Brian up against only MacIntyre and Phil Mickelson, Garrick Higgo and Sam Bairstow.
Top South African - Dean Burmester 8/1. The obvious pick here would be Louis Oosthuizen, whose win in 2010 and T2 in 2015 represent a pretty handy case. However, I think Louis's mind could be elsewhere just now and if he falters I like Burmy, one of my most profitable ever players, at this price. Skybet give you 3 places for this too.

Harmy and Burmy :wub:

Thieved a 100% profit off the back of these and DJ, can't wait to lose it all on the 3M Open.

[Ben]

After having four of the top 8 going into Sunday, I got fuck all.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Decided late last night whilst watching the World Athletics Championships to put £5 on Devon Allen to win at 8.5 which I thought was far too generous.

He's blown hot and cold this year but when he's been on form he's been lightning. He's got the fastest time this year at 12.84 which also happens to be the third fastest time ever in the sport and just four-hundreths of a second off the World Record.

This was also going to be his last ever race as he's going to try to become an NFL WR and was recently signed by the Philadelphia Eagles. The track also happens to be where he went to College so I assumed he had lots of practice on said track plus would want to really go for it for his home crowd.

Things looked even better when the Olympic champion and favourite for the race Hansle Parchment (what a name) injured himself in warm ups.

Obviously he ended up being disqualified for a false start. The electronic blocks said he moved 0.001 seconds too fast (if you react in under 0.100 seconds it's deemed that you couldn't have reacted to the gun and went before) and left the track with the crowd booing the officials.

[Lofty]

Harmy and Burmy :wub:

Thieved a 100% profit off the back of these and DJ, can't wait to lose it all on the 3M Open.

I followed this so cheers Jim!

[Ben]

Some quick last minute picks for 3M:

Todd 50/1
Hoge 75/1
Lashley 110/1

Todd and Lashley because the good putters go well here and Hoge because I keep backing him and I know when I fuck him off he will come good (despite six missed cuts in a row his stats are still holding up).

[Manc]

Cazoo - Olesen & Ferguson

3M - Clark & Tarren

[Jimmy Floyd]

3M
NeSmith 50/1
Ghim 66/1
Hoge 70/1

I agree Hoge just can't be missed at those odds.

[Baz]

Has anyone got any season long football bets on? I’ve a few, mostly based on Haaland being very good:

Man City to win by 5+ goals at least 5 times in the league @ 12/1
Man City to win by 6+ goals at least 5 times in the league @ 18/1
Man City to win the league, Haaland top scorer @ 8/1
Haaland top scorer and 15+ assists @ 250/1
1 City, 2 Liverpool, 3 Spurs, 4 Chelsea @ 25/1
Haaland, Nunez & Kane to have 15+ headed shots on target @ 500/1

[niko_cee]

How many times have City historically won by 6 in the league? That seems a pretty low price for it to happen that many times.

What is a headed shot? 15 headers on target all season from those three? Combined?

[Waffdon]

Yeah the first two aren’t happening and the prices given are horrendous.

The headers seems pretty good valve on the face of it but it must be 500/1 for a reason. Must not happen as often as you’d think.

[Lofty]

The best season long ones are outright league winners I think, as an acca. My mate had one years ago as a £5 acca that he cashed out at £30k because two teams had a wobble late on. They later recovered and won their leagues meaning he would have won £120k if he held his nerve :eyemouth:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The headers is surely 15 each.

Also, Spurs in third? :harold:

[Baz]

How many times have City historically won by 6 in the league? That seems a pretty low price for it to happen that many times.

What is a headed shot? 15 headers on target all season from those three? Combined?

It’s 15 each :harold:

And they won by 5 four times last season. To win by 5 five times was 50/1 at one point, so I agree the prices are turd this time.

[Boydy]

How many headed shots did Kane have on target last season?

[niko_cee]

He had 53 shots on target so I'm going to guess not many [he led the league with 4 headed goals].

[Baz]

Not many: https://www.bettingodds.com/news/premier-league-heading-stats

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hoge placed, Ghimp went round in about 200 to miss the places, wanker. Wp with Tarren, Manc.

[Manc]

Been a while since I've had a triple odds come in. Lovely jubbly.

[Ben]

Rocket Mortgage: Kirk, Kuchar, Hubbard.

[Manc]

I'll follow on Hubbard 50/1. Kisner 40/1, Champ 50/1 & Pendrith 70/1.

[Manc]

Hero Open:

Long 33/1
Law 40/1
Sullivan 55/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rocket Mortgage

Kirk 50/1
Henley 50/1
Spaun 150/1
Lipsky 150/1

Hero Open

Law 40/1
Jamieson 60/1
Hundeboll 80/1

LIV Donald J. Trump Murder Classic

Kokrak 25/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Has Russell Henley ever actually won? I swear one of us backs him every week. Here we go. 2017 Houston the last time. Bleak.

[Ben]

I was obsessed with him for a bit. He came out on my shortlist for this as well but I limited myself to three.

[Jimmy Floyd]

+ over a stroke t2g since January and no top 10 in the same period, he must be the Hulkenberg of golfers.

[Luca]

All in on the Jimmy train.

[Manc]

I was obsessed with him for a bit.

This is definitely a thing. I've been hot on Kisner all year. Hoge the year before.

[Ben]

I'm a fan of Hoge this year. He's consistently triple figures despite being there or thereabouts more often than not.

[Baz]

Sky offering 7/1 for Haaland to score 3+ PL hattricks is unreal. :drool:

[SvN]

That seemed like a big ask, but it's been done a few times. Shearer got 5 in 95/96, Kane got 4 in 16/17 and Aguero did it two seasons running. I still think 7/1 is short.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Reckon it sounds good until you remember Pep's going to bench him about 12 times in easy home games.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Time for my winners of the 4 English divisions bet. Got 2/4 last year and close to a third with Rotherham.

Man City, Watford, MK Dons, Northampton @ 900/1

[Ben]

Oooh, I'll do this.

Man City: obviously.
Norwich: they're the favourites because they're always solid and the only team that might be exciting up there is Sheff Utd but there's rumblings of Berge leaving so don't want to risk it.
Sheff Wed: again a choice more because the likely challengers all look poor and they've kept the squad together from last year plus added a couple.
Bradford: they're making a massive go of it with lots of signings from higher up the leagues.

420/1.

[Baz]

City, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday & Mansfield is 643/1

[niko_cee]

Louis Barry to fire MK Don's to the title?

[Josh]

Watford!? Are you lot mad?

[Baz]

Watford!? Are you lot mad?

Boro then? Seem to be signing well.

[Ben]

Nope. We haven't got a striker.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Watford!? Are you lot mad?

The gap is getting wider. I did think about Middlesbrough or Swansea but both lack star quality.

Norwich too short, the spell has to break eventually with them.

[Josh]

We are going to have a midfield of Cleverley and Gosling!

Sarr and Dennis are both going to go and we bung a single agent for all of our transfers who is involved with numerous court cases. Players we have brought it in are all complete punts.

It's your money but I would very much recommend to not go near the circus that is Watford. We are not the same club we were 4/5 years ago that was smart in certain areas.

[Waffdon]

Long shot btts coupons back tomorrow :drool:

[Lofty]

Netted a nice return off a fiver last day of the season, time to erase that profit on 20 fold accas :drool:

[Baz]

Long shot btts coupons back tomorrow :drool:Theyre shit, them. I used to have a Friday ritual of walking to betfred to put on a goals galore coupon. But then one day The Reid put the exact same results into his bet365 app it and was like double the odds. Don’t fall victim to coupons.

[Waffdon]

Ladbrokes give you the boost with accas and 10+ folds give you a decent bit more. I’ll check the difference tomorrow compared to 365. I just like ticking them off like an old man rather than the computer working it out automatically :lol:

Teams to win I do on 365 just because of the 2-0 rule

[Waffdon]

Bet365 £489.60 more for a 12 fold :lol:

Forgot they gave the massive bet boost as well

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Couldn't find Hundeboll on Betfair so of course he ends up placing.

At least Law got a place too.

[Luca]

I have Hundeboll outright to 5 places, and somehow didn’t get paid out?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I have Hundeboll outright to 5 places, and somehow didn’t get paid out?

Nothing?

You should have gotten a dead heat place unless your bookie is a complete scumbag that don't do dead heats.

[Luca]

It's Bet365. I filed a live chat complaint and suddenly my money appeared. :sherlock:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

It's Bet365. I filed a live chat complaint and suddenly my money appeared. :sherlock:

That sometimes happens.

On Betfair I once got a full place paid as a dead heat, complained to live chat and the missing money came in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Couldn't find Hundeboll on Betfair so of course he ends up placing.

At least Law got a place too.

He was being called Jorgensen in some places. Pleased with those places. Hopefully can be followed up later in America.

[Ben]

Kirk is playing some good golf here. :yn:

[Manc]

Pendrith bottling it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Finau winning two in a row? The world really is fucked.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Spaun's -17 won't be enough. Ridiculous dart board of a course.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was actually enough for half a place if you had 8, which I did with Skybet. Satisfying week with others close as well.

Pendrith a lovely shout too Manc, often comes on my radar but I overlooked him for this.

[Manc]

Strong week all round. A winner must be close.

[Manc]

Wyndham

Si Woo Kim 25/1
McCarthy 35/1
Smalley 80/1

Cazoo (yeah you can)

Pepperell 28/1
Schmid 28/1
Syme 40/1
Hanna 70/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've had a few the same as you of late but absolutely no way the computer is giving me Eddie Pep. Let's have a look.

[Ben]

Wyndham odds are generally shit all round. I'm on Mitchell and Duncan.

[Baz]

How many headed shots did Kane have on target last season?

12 on target, from 26 attempts.

Thanks Understat.

None of you python boys fancy setting something up to scrape every match next season and outputting any headed shots that were saved/scored, for Nunez, Kane and Haaland? :arry:

[Manc]

Wyndham odds are generally shit all round. I'm on Mitchell and Duncan.

Noticeably so. I may follow on Mitchell. Loves a top ten finish.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wyndham

Horschel 16/1
Harman 30/1
Wise 40/1
Glover 175/1

Taff Open

J.Smith 14/1
Helligkilde 50/1
Norgaard Moller 80/1
Garcia Heredia 100/1

[-james-]

Rasheed Broadbell @2.87 for the 110m hurdles at the Commonwealth Games with William Hill and perhaps others, if you're quick. Favourite has pulled out.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Got on @ 3.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Easy stuff.

[Lofty]

Gabriel Jesus 80/1 for a hat trick tonight, worth a nibble.

[John Arne]

Saigon FC - Hagl

Second half just kicked off. Nothing too dodgy but ref seems a bit bent.

[Don]

What was the price, you dirty fuck? :drool:

[John Arne]

:d

29/20

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

BTTS:

Fulham/Liverpool Yes
Bournemouth/Villa No
Leeds/Wolves Yes
Newcastle/Forest Yes
Spurs/Southampton Yes
Everton/Chelsea No.

Free money.

[Don]

Sheff Wed are a juicy price, Dons are a long way off being a functional side according to reports.

[Lofty]

Skybet offering 16/1 on a Gross hattrick and he already has 2 goals.

[Don]

I'm on a random Haaland and KDB to have 7+ shots on target combined at 20/1 for scenes.

[Manc]

Solid return in Wales. Smalley looks have to just missed a T10.

[Ben]

Thankfully back to big boy tournaments this week.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My lot went limp dick on me at the weekend.

First playoff event is always a weird one, hopefully they come up with a better system in response to LIV laugh love.