The Betting Thread

[Manc]

Any insight into the Olympics Jimmy Floyd?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I haven't checked the market yet (will look tomorrow) but my fancies without seeing odds are Morikawa, the two Japanese and the two Koreans.

[Don]

Iran +40.5 in the basketball against USA. Thank me later.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Olympic golf (men)

To win gold:
Morikawa 7/1
Hovland 11/1
Matsuyama 12/1

To win a medal:
Matsuyama 4/1
SW Kim 12/1
Pereira 20/1

[Manc]

Do the Koreans avoid military service if they medal?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yep. I'm undecided whether that will propel them forth or add too much pressure, but it's a factor and they both missed the Open to prepare. The only precedent is 2016 when Ben An and Jeunghun Wang had the same prize on the line and neither top 10'd, albeit these two are much better players. Sungjae is young enough for another stab in Paris, but his form has been a bit patchy so I'm not taking him at the prices. Siwoo, a streaky, mad motherfucker, offers better value.

Hideki won the Asian amateur on this course and has also presumably been preparing. Riyuka Hoshino is slightly too shit I think, on reflection.

[Baz]

After missing a 28/1 winner yesterday (I got 9s) due to not having overnight Best Odds Guaranteed I decided to buy a Bet365 account, and it’s already paid dividends. 2 accounts for £25 seems expensive for what it is but I’ve already made about £125 extra than I would have without it, so happy days.

And I’ve got a backup if this one ever gets limited, albeit unlikely cos I’m sticking to £25 a point.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Matsuyama and Pereira look like they could come good.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Absolutely typical of my current run, had it surrounded from all sides and ended up with fuck all. Had 2 of the 3 medal picks miss a putt for bronze, and if Hideki could literally putt at all he would have won gold. He really is a pain in the arse.

I will soldier on and do WGC Memphis later.

Women's Olympics: Tavatanakit 20/1 EW

[Jimmy Floyd]

A triple helping of failure this week. 4, 5 and 6 players respectively.

WGC Fedex St Jude

Probably the most vanilla of the WGCs, despite boasting almost all of the world's top 50, this is mainly notable for the time Lee Westwood won it while being plastered with UPS logos, something which made Fedex cry so much that they refused to invite him to a later tournament they sponsored, and also brought in a rule that no PGA Tour player is allowed to negotiate a new sponsorship deal with UPS or DHL (Westy prowls the fairways in his UPS shirt to this day).

Morikawa 12/1
Cantlay 25/1
Ancer 45/1
Harman 55/1

Barracuda Championship

To my knowledge the only PGA Tour event named after a fish. This is in Reno, and played in the Stableford format, i.e. you score points for birdies rather than being over/under par. It's also vital for many down the order chasing their cards for next year - the grim reaper is coming for the careers of plenty in this tournament if they don't play well this week.

Wise 35/1
Dahmen 40/1
Knox 66/1
Whaley 100/1
McCumber 150/1

Hero Open

This is being played at Fairmont St Andrews, i.e. not St Andrews, but a hotel nearby. We're now into the quiet period on the European Tour while the Americans climax their season. I was looking down some of the lesser known names in this (weak) field and found one Robin 'Tiger' Williams, a black lad from Peterborough with what I think is a self-awarded nickname. No pressure eh lad. Also playing are amateur champion Laird Shepherd - a rare example of someone named for two different jobs in a medieval Scottish village - and veteran Scottish journeyman Graham Fox. Trying to find material on Fox I could only manage this, from the horse's mouth: "Took up the game as a 12 year old with a group of friends at West Kilbride because there was nothing else to do in our village." Inspirational.

Kawamura 22/1
Besseling 33/1
G.Porteous 66/1
Winther 66/1
Howie 125/1
von Dellingshausen 300/1

[Manc]

Not fancy Mito? Jimmy Floyd

[Jimmy Floyd]

Market has picked up on him now. Lovely player. Has the same swing as Niemann which is fairly spooky, maybe they had the same coach back home.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Ancer :cool:

That was a tidy play-off.

His and Burns' approach shots on the final playoff hole were brilliant.

Stunned that Matsuyama's putt on the first playoff hole didn't go down, just a bit too much pace on it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Abe :cool:

I love the Mexicans, me.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Might yet get a place out of Whaley or Dahmen too, though following the scoring in that is a brainfuck. We are BACK.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Yeah I've looked at that leaderboard a couple of times and I genuinely have no idea what's going on.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's two points for a birdie and -1 for a bogey, though I'm not sure what happens with the doubles/triples, and the course is seriously easy so it's flying all over the place.

Fuck it, got to post the winning song for Abe as it's such a banger.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6xIHbSQ85s

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Whaley dropped the ball :(

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wyndham Championship

One of my favourite American tournaments of the year, and not because of the course or the championship itself, which is just another golf tournament somewhere in America (North Carolina, in this case). This week is great because of what's at stake, as this is the final tournament before the playoffs and the 125 spots in those playoffs are on the line, but so are many people's careers. The magnificently meritocratic nature of golf means that if you finish outside that top 125, and are not a recent winner or exempt in some other way, your time as a PGA Tour golfer could well be up. The highest profile golfer facing such a fate is, perhaps surprisingly, Tommy Fleetwood, who despite being ranked 35 in the world is only 136th on the American list and so must, by my reckoning, finish at worst top 15 to have a chance. Many other less famous names face a similar challenge. As well as that struggle, there are also various sub plots. Will Zalatoris, 2nd in the Masters, is notionally ranked 26th but because he is not an official PGA Tour member (until next year) he will not be eligible for the playoffs unless he wins this event. Bob MacIntyre needs a top five or so to have a chance of earning his card for next year. Whatever happens, there are usually celebrations for plenty and tears for others come Sunday night.

Oosthuizen 14/1
Harman 25/1
Reavie 80/1
Stanley 110/1
Garnett 125/1
Percy 200/1

Cazoo Classic

Is there any sport left that Cazoo will not sponsor? Their list goes as follows: Aston Villa, Everton, the Rugby League World Cup, the Hundred, half of the snooker tour, the EFL, the Derby and the St Leger horse races, the PDC darts, the Welsh rugby team, the Welsh Open golf the other week, and now this, effectively the English Open. Their marketing budget must be astronomical/dodgy to have instantly monopolised such a huge proportion of UK sport in this way. Still, someone has to pay the bills, and it's a car website. This event is played at 'London Golf Club', which, as you can probably guess, is not in London. It hasn't been used on the European Tour for a while but I vaguely remember the last time in 2014, mainly for the fact that it's very close to Brands Hatch and you can hear cars or bikes buzzing around there in the background.

Kawamura 25/1
Fox 35/1
van Tonder 60/1
Whitnell 80/1
De Jager 100/1
Enoch 300/1

[Manc]

Villegas @250/1. Talk to me.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think a top 30 or so might be enough for Camilo, and he hasn't been on top form recently, so no each way appeal for me. Price is about right probably. I hope he does it.

[Baz]

4 points on PSV to win.

Midtjylland have half a team and PSV stuffed Ajax 4-0 in their community shield.

#freemoney

[Baz]

93rd minute goal to make it 1-0 to PSV. Yes!

[Jimmy Floyd]

A traditional August bet that I have never come close to winning but gives some rooting interest during the year. Fourfold on the 4 English league champions.

Man City / Fulham / Rotherham / Newport - 1,200/1

Think the most I've had was 2/4 one year.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Wyndham Championship

Oosthuizen 14/1
Harman 25/1
Reavie 80/1
Stanley 110/1
Garnett 125/1
Percy 200/1

Louis a late withdrawal (not for the first time...) so we'll just have to go in with the famous five. I dreamed that Cameron Percy came 2nd, if that's any help (concerning, both on a base level, and for the fact that I don't even know what Cameron Percy looks like).

[Manc]

Is Sabbatini on the juice?

[Jimmy Floyd]

My contacts are investigating a possible doping programme that may have spread all the way through Slovakian golf. Results of the investigation when we have them.

Between the 'worst putt ever hit' and Olympic silver, he's had quite the 12 months. EDIT: And facetiming Morikawa's girlfriend of course, how could I forget that.

[Lofty]

Sky Boost Toney Anytime 3/1 and Mari starting: free money.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Whitnell (who looked great for a place today) and Enoch fucking up is annoying.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Had that one surrounded and yet again the cunts can't play golf on Sundays.

It's so annoying when I nail the logic of tipping for a tournament and the dickheads all bottle it. If you get it wrong then fine, but bottle jobs do my head in, and golf is chock full of them, it's what makes it such a great watch.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Had that one surrounded and yet again the cunts can't play golf on Sundays.

It's so annoying when I nail the logic of tipping for a tournament and the dickheads all bottle it. If you get it wrong then fine, but bottle jobs do my head in, and golf is chock full of them, it's what makes it such a great watch.

Both were joint top after day 2 IIRC.

[Manc]

Henley missing out on the playoff despite leading all weekend was a thing of beauty. Kisner taking it down secured me a pretty penny.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I love Kisner. He should be in every US Ryder Cup team and they will be idiots when they overlook him again this time.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Northern Trust

The mega-long covid special PGA Tour regular season is finally over and now it's time for the first of three 'playoff' events. 125 players have qualified during the course of the year and only 70 will go on to the second event next week. This one is at Liberty National in New Jersey, a fairly anodyne track noted more for its backdrop (featuring the New York skyline and eponymous statue) than for its legendary golf holes. The field is obviously as good as it gets and with golf as strong and deep as it currently is, it's hard to imagine a surprise winner, happy though the likes of Anirban Lahiri, Peter Malnati and Matthew Nesmith will be to have reached this point. Of more low-note interest might be the scrap to make the top 70 and progress to next week: names like Bubba Watson, Ian Poulter and Adam Scott are currently on the outside of that, while Fitzpatrick, Hatton and Lowry may be among those clinging on for dear life. I'm going with a method this week that is very unlike me and selecting just two players. They share a first name and a mother tongue but not too much else. I have an overwhelming fancy for the first name, while the longer shot of the two is more of a (data-based) hunch.

Rahm 9/1
Vegas 125/1

Czech Masters

Set against the glamorous dollar orgy that indulges the world's top players in America at this time of year, the European Tour often seems rather quaint and parochial, and it doesn't get any more parochial than the D+D Real Czech Masters. I have always wondered what the trade of title sponsor D+D Real might be; a visit to their website (https://www.ddreal.cz/) offers little in the way of clues. As always on the European Tour, there are some glorious surprises when I look at the entry list: who should have hot-footed it from his failed attempt to make the playoffs than Slovak sensation Rory Sabbatini, the boy from Bratislava doing his best as always for the betterment of central European golf. Also playing is Henrik Stenson; no one quite knows why he is in the Czech Masters, so theories abound that a Ryder Cup vice captaincy announcement is incoming, with captain Harrington also present. Otherwise, this will be a fairly bog standard Euro event with a healthy contingent of Czechs and Slovaks spicing things up, and I'm on one of those alongside some more familiar (largely saffa) names.

Burmester 16/1
Leon 33/1
Ritchie 66/1
De Jager 70/1
Bertasio 80/1
Lieser 300/1

[Baz]

I’ve not backed for ages so I’ve backed these on my otherwise dormant William Hill account, including max bet on Ondraj Lieser, for £6k return.

[Manc]

I like the look of Scheffler.

[Manc]

Money down for Garcia 90/1.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Late addition for the true believers.

Boise Open

Whaley 70/1
Smalley 80/1

[Manc]

Garcia with a triple bogey at the first. Thanks for the ride lad.

[Manc]

Make that a quadruple. Pack away the clubs.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It would be quite fun if he played badly enough in this playoff stretch to play himself out of the Ryder Cup wildcard that he is currently nailed on to get because 'experience'.

[Baz]

Fixed match alert. 9/1

FK Indjija 2 - 1 Rad Belgrade

Kicks off at 16:30

[Offshore Toon]

Fixed match alert. 9/1

FK Indjija 2 - 1 Rad Belgrade

Kicks off at 16:30
Lets have a pop then.

[Offshore Toon]

Stick to animations.

[Baz]

I was lied to by the random WhatsApp number!

[Pleb]

I was lied to by the random WhatsApp number!
:D

[Baz]

I’ve figured it out.

Find and join one of the many “WhatsApp/Telegram bet group chats” that are all over Twitter and telegram.
Message everyone individually saying you have paid for a result to be fixed and will share it with them, if they promise to pay you XX% of their winnings each time.
Send a different completely guessed result for an obscure match to everyone who replies.
If by chance one of your predictions is correct, that person MIGHT send you some money in the hope of getting another “fixed result” guaranteed win.

You could probably then rinse them and say ‘I’ve proven myself as a betting fixer, pay me £100 and I’ll send you three more results all for tomorrow’ and then block them when they’ve sent you some Bitcoin for the random guess you made.

Who’s in?

[Kikó]

You haven't invented something here. This is classic fraud.

[niko_cee]

Seems like a lot of work for a hundred quid.

Also, wouldn't the better play to be to give them a result you could lay for that second fixed bet? So you can coin all of their false investment. Extra double lol when it comes in and bankrupts you.

[Manc]

Odds on Rahm bottling? Jimmy Floyd

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'll take him to win from here over any of the chasing bed wetters. Finau ffs.

Burmy with a place which is better than nowt I suppose.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Here comes the Tony Finau CHARGE. What could possibly go wrong.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

:uhoh:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rahm's proper chopped it round the last few. Tony, it's yours to lose now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

His last few tee shots have been abysmal.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Really intrigued to see how Tony manages to lose it from here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's done it. Beaten by a Finau win. I'll take the place money out of the bank and burn it, there's no coming back from this.

[Manc]

Big Jon strikes again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think he and I are going to have to go our separate ways now. Was in complete command for 67 holes of that tournament, then turned into a cunt for the last five.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3mdHmhI3cs

[Manc]

Can't wait for THE COMPUTER to put him up for the BMW.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Fear not.

BMW Championship

The second event of the playoffs whittles the field down from 70 players to 30 for next week's finale at East Lake. Most of the big dogs are through this far but this is the point at which there could be some casualties. It's an important tournament for many because being in the final 30 gets you into all the majors next year; those who miss out will need to find other routes in. This year it's at Caves Valley in Baltimore, not a course that many players will have played. At first look it seems fairly interesting, with water and undulations. After last week's disgrace by Jon Rahm, who goes off this week at 11/2 (positively feline odds), the computer has apologised profusely and given me four different names all with much to play for.

Scheffler 30/1
Berger 35/1
Casey 40/1
Homa 125/1

Omega European Masters

With Rolex for once taking a back seat in the battle of the timekeeping megaliths, it's off to the Swiss Alps for what is visually perhaps the most stimulating tournament on the European schedule. Summer alpine landscapes provide the backdrop for a course with (as you might expect) a lot of uphill and downhill holes, and with decent cash on offer, the field is improved too: no PGA Tour players yet, as the playoffs continue, but the likes of Kaymer, Molinari, Wiesberger, Willett and new Aussie star Minwoo Lee arrive to bolster the competition strength. Absolutely none of this provides an excuse to put up Victor Dubuisson, but I'm doing it anyway.

Rozner 40/1
Willett 45/1
Dubuisson 80/1
Ed Molinari 80/1
Zanotti 80/1

[Manc]

Following on Homa. DeChambeau comfortably to be in the mix.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's on for a 59 here, I hope you loaded on. My method is not primed for beefsteak blitzes.

[Manc]

Bryson or bust. Nice of Sergio to turn up this week.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Computer actually liked Sergio this week, but I know much better than to get involved in that sort of nonsense.

Coley looks to have nailed it with Deesh and Cantlay.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bryson choking hard.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bryson :harold:

[Manc]

We go again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That we do.

Tour Championship

This is a weird and frankly quite stupid way to end the PGA Tour season (before the next one starts in literally 2 weeks' time). The 30 remaining players' season long points totals have been thrown in the bin as they finally arrive at East Lake in Atlanta for the season finale which pays out the massive money. Instead they begin with handicapped scores, so points leader Patrick Cantlay is on -10, second placed Tony Finau begins on -8, and so on. As such, the winner of the actual 72 hole tournament can and probably will be different from the winner of the Fedex Cup itself. My bets are on the latter, as the massive money pot for winning ($11 million, or whatever it is) is what will motivate these players. My selections are also extremely boring, but I think have the best chance to cover the winner while making a profit.

Cantlay 7/2
Rahm 7/2

Italian Open

This is a more standard event over in Europe and the field continues to get stronger as Ryder Cup qualification nears its end. There is quite a bit on the line here for the various runners and riders. A lot of the European team is probably locked in (including at least two of the captains' picks) but there is certainly one spot to be played for, if not two. Bernd Wiesberger's second place last week moved him into strong contention, just 200 or so European points behind McIlroy in the quite complicated standings that I am one of about 9 people in the world to have mastered. With Rory otherwise engaged it will only require about a top 8 or 10 for Bernd to climb above him and thus knock out Shane Lowry from the other list, who doesn't play until next week's decisive PGA Championship. There are others, like home boy Migliozzi, last week's winner Hojgaard, France's Victor Perez and a couple of others who could force their way into the reckoning with a win or 2nd place. It's surprising how often that happens at this time in the qualification cycle. Speaking of the Ryder Cup, this event is being held on the 2023 venue, the first look we've had at Marco Simone GC in real competition.

Wiesberger 18/1
Migliozzi 22/1
Canter 66/1
Meronk 80/1
Van Tonder 90/1

[Baz]

Done 2 bets:

Ronaldo to score & Ronaldo to be booked
His goal breaks the record so the tops coming off off. B365 says it’s 134/13, which is nonsense

Filippo Celli to win the Italian Open EW 5 places 1000/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Senegal, Egypt and Mali to win today - 7/4

[Manc]

I'll follow on that, Jim.

I like the look of Burns for the Tour Championship.

[Offshore Toon]

Done 2 bets:

Ronaldo to score & Ronaldo to be booked
His goal breaks the record so the tops coming off off. B365 says it’s 134/13, which is nonsense
I like this. I'm on.

Also done a tiny amount on CR FGS and sent off.

[SvN]

Betfair is giving me 3/1 for that combo :D

[Baz]

BOYYYYYYY YEYEHSHHShahsp

[Kikó]

Lol brilliant.

[Manc]

Phenomenal.

[SvN]

Nice one Baz. Gutted I didn't get involved, seemed so inevitable.

[Offshore Toon]

Donned it, Baz. Cheers.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Wish I had followed.

Nice call, Baz.

[Kikó]

Show us the bet slip Baz

[Baz]

Show us the bet slip Baz

https://i.imgur.com/mFAUOeI_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Jimmy Floyd]

90 quid? Fuck off :D

Coates on the dole.

[Kikó]

Serious dollar.

[Baz]

Tomorrow's bet is Harry Souttar anytime goalscorer vs China. 11/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Senegal, Egypt and Mali to win today - 7/4

This won. Today across to another continent: South Korea, Iran, UAE, Saudi to win. 1.54/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Dead. East Asian football's pitiful decline continues apace.

[Yevrah]

Top bombing btw Baz. :chief:

[John Arne]

Fucked up results in Asia with Oman beating Japan (won $32) and S.Korea and Iraq drawing.

Double on Saudi beating Vietnam and Aussies beating China at 0.7

[John Arne]

Decent night for me

https://gyazo.com/6b439e24a1f9256c5780be49be97266c.jpeg

[Offshore Toon]

If you didn't post it before the event then it means nothing you pedo.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Van Tonder is doing his best to try and fall out of the places here.

Meronk is making a serious push though.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't trust Nicolai, think -14 could be in with a shout if Meronk can get there.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Van Tonder has shit his pants.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Thought Meronk would scrape a playoff.

Damn.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Another hollow victory for the methodology, they did all try to spew their guts out on 16 but found it on 18. Still, 80/1 place is nice.

Nicolai swearing in the post round interview wins him points.

[John Arne]

Vietnam v Australia tonight (lunchtime for you). Australia are already better, however, Vietnam missing our best 2 defenders, and 3 or 4 players with Covid. It's going to be an ass raping of a lifetime. Australia 1/6, so not much value, however, some on the Over 3.5 and goalscorer market.

https://gyazo.com/6778a4e937777f6b735f4b7aea136d15.jpeg

[Baz]

Tomorrow's bet is Harry Souttar anytime goalscorer vs China. 11/1

Yes John Arne!

I’m on him to score and win, to score 2+ and to score 3+.

[Jimmy Floyd]

BMW PGA Championship

Only one event on this week (other than the US Ryder Cup captain's picks on Wednesday, which should be interesting) and to make things even more thrilling it's an event I'm going to on Saturday, Wentworth being only about 25 minutes' drive and about £2 million in house prices from my gaff. This is the 'flagship event', as they call it, of the European Tour and features one of the strongest European fields of the year. Not many yanks are coming over this time, although Billy Horschel does as he looks to build on his 4th place in the standings, and so is Viktor Hovland, who I would love to watch live so have to hope he makes the cut. Other than that it should be a good shootout between European golf's best on a familiar but difficult course. The subplot is of course Ryder Cup qualification. Shane Lowry is currently in the mayor's office for the final qualifying place, but the likes of Wiesberger, Perez, Macintyre, Migliozzi or at a stretch Detry could pass him with a win here. In Wiesberger's case, a top 10 would do it. Last year I had a winner here with Tyrrell Hatton, and I'm on a favourite again this time around.

Hovland 15/2
Fitzpatrick 18/1
Korhonen 80/1
Dubuisson 125/1
Ramsay 125/1
Aphibarnrat 175/1

[Offshore Toon]

I'm on the Harry Souttar train. I'm expecting nothing but I can't turn down betting on a defender scoring a hat-trick.

[Offshore Toon]

Is the Aus-Vietnam match being shown on YouTube or anything?

[John Arne]

Is the Aus-Vietnam match being shown on YouTube or anything?

Yeah, they'll be lots of VN streams on YouTube. Or just get a link from soccerstreams.net

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm on AGS, to score 2 or more and the hattrick.

Also have a bit on over 4.5 goals.

[John Arne]

Crap start by Australia. Proper turgid.

[Offshore Toon]

It might work out for the best if they give up on playing football and just go for set pieces.

[John Arne]

That's a penalty for me that, Clive.

[Don]

Onefootball.com for AFC streams.

[Jimmy Floyd]

BMW PGA Championship

Aphibarnrat 175/1

Going to enjoy this two shot lead while it lasts.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXUf006V4AEcNTP.jpg

[Waffdon]

Nearly 3/1 for an Annan Athletic and Queens Park double seems far too generous. Annan at evens is mental

[Lofty]

I'll have a nibble of that.

[Offshore Toon]

Nearly 3/1 for an Annan Athletic and Queens Park double seems far too generous. Annan at evens is mental
Yep, lets av it.

Also, stuck a £5 free bet on 0-0 in MUN-NEW. Can Ronaldomania trump our simple little Ole? I'm not so sure, even if he starts.

[Lofty]

Would you not have been better off backing no goalscorer to cover any OGs?

Fancy the hat trick myself.

[Offshore Toon]

Yeah, didn't think of that. Odds have plummeted from 19 to 17 anyway so it's coooooming home.

[John Arne]

Just managed to get odds of 151 on Newcastle winning. Should I cash out before they notice the mistake? Will it be voided anyway?

https://gyazo.com/1d2f9d38f25c497257a7094e174d8cab.jpeg

[Offshore Toon]

Nah, keep it. ASM > Ronaldo.

[Yevrah]

For £12 profit I'd take the risk and leave it in.

[John Arne]

Yeah I'm going to. Pretty sure they'll void it anyway. Betting companies are cunts.

[Offshore Toon]

What an anti-climatic shithole of a goal to send social media crazy.

[Offshore Toon]

Nearly 3/1 for an Annan Athletic and Queens Park double seems far too generous. Annan at evens is mental
Annan currently losing 2-0 to Stenhousemuir for those interested.

[Waffdon]

Football makes no sense.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Going to enjoy this two shot lead while it lasts.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXUf006V4AEcNTP.jpg

He's on it today.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Eagle to give him a 3 shot lead :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

What the fuck is he doing?

Edit: Knew he was done after the 17th. He was lucky to escape with a bogey but it was clear that it affected him on the 18th.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I went yesterday and as I was stood no more than 6 feet away from him on the 17th fairway, I wanted to say to the great man: look, Kiradech, I've got some shekels riding on this, you know, if you wouldn't mind getting going a bit here. However, I held my tongue, more's the pity. I don't think there's any other sport where you can bet on someone and then be that close to them mid-game.

He then went on to balls up the 18th, looked like he had run out of puff completely, so I gave up on him, and then next thing I know he's 8 under through 12 today, rarely has a good full 18 in him unfortunately.

It's quite interesting being at the course, you really get a sense for who is good and who is having to work bloody hard to be at the top. Marcus Armitage, for example, is in the latter category. Nicolai Hojgaard looked a million dollars, he and his brother will go to the very top. Bezuidenhout is absolute pure class as well, think he might nick a major one day.

[Don]

Been a while since a good train chaps but Bayern at almost evens is the one. You're looking at a Barca side who have just lost Greazy and have been struggling even before that against a Bayern side that is really beginning to click. Would have preferred it to be a KO game to ward off complacency but I think that could also make it one worth covering some ambitious handicaps on.

-1 3.1
-2 6.0
-3 12.0

Let's be fuckin 'avin you.

[Lofty]

Barca -2 then.

[Don]

You can lead the mong to water...

[Jimmy Floyd]

I find that Bayern thing convincing so may follow. Godspeed, my Nazi heroes.

Anyway.

Fortinet Championship

The PGA Tour season has only just finished, but already it starts again with this rather low key event in California wine country. This falls the week before the Ryder Cup, and it's notable that 23 of the 24 players in that event are giving this one a miss. The one exception, somewhat oddly, is Jon Rahm, who clearly feels the need to compete against a very humdrum field to tune up for Whistling Straits. As a result he goes off at 4/1, which to beat 150 odd people in a golf tournament is pretty damn short. I am not interested in Rahm this time, purely because he will see this as a tune up whereas for most of the rest of the field it is a golden chance to grab some early Fedex points and make the rest of their year a lot easier. This is also the first tournament with a shaken-up field as new faces arrive promoted from the Korn Ferry.

Grillo 40/1
Ghim 66/1
Kizzire 80/1
List 125/1
Hardy 200/1
McCumber 250/1

Dutch Open

After last week's star-studded affair, the European Tour returns to a much weaker field in the Netherlands this time. In fact, they have attracted a pretty reasonable cast list considering the low prize money, as in the absence of the Ryder Cup stars, some of the middling names jockey for ranking points ahead of the final 60 cut off for the season finale in Dubai. I have always quite liked this event, which moves around between different courses, as the Netherlands has some crackers - Hilversumsche being my favourite. This year however we're at the newly built venue of Bernardus Golf, which on first inspection appears to be one giant sandpit. I saw enough last week from BEEF to think that this might be his week, but I've also gone for a home town boy, as I like to do, and a talented amateur.

Johnston 25/1
Besseling 33/1
Garcia Heredia 66/1
Kearney 80/1
Gavins 125/1
van der Vight 500/1

[Lofty]

You can lead the mong to water...

Bayern should win but you have the reverse midas touch.

All aboard Jimmy's train.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's you who conducts trains. I just drive golf buggies.

[Yevrah]

Bayern winning by three goals, in Spain, to get 5/1, sounds a little bit...risky.

[Don]

Ya, but Jan Venegoor of Grolshbrewery swinging a stick at a ball at 561/1 is okay because everyone's fallen asleep before any kind of result is announced. The state of what's become of this gaff :face:

[Jimmy Floyd]

You could have had the 175/1 place last week, so basically a 35/1 winner to go alongside 7/2, 12/1 and 45/1 payouts in the last few weeks. Tell me when you last had any of those on the kickball.

[Manc]

Im fully converted to betting on the golf. Lots of stats to mull over and four days of entertainment.

Maverick McNealy 50/1

[Lofty]

The computer trumps the nostrils every time.

[Manc]

Moreno NGS 5/1

[Yevrah]

I can only apologise to the train Taz. That said, you're probably lucky I didn't join it.

[Don]

0.2 - 2.30 xG with them walking around in the second half. It was a CR7 raping.

I'd feel bad for you gammons but I'm sure after so many years, you know better than to doubt my credentials. Even Lofty was probably on it but had to join in on the racist attacks to save face. You're welcome lad, buy the missus something nice and tell her I'll be round later for a reverse midas touch of her dirty clit.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I said it was a convincing train, shots were only fired once you strayed onto my patch. They keep BLMs like yourself off golf courses for a reason.

[Baz]

I was on -2.5. Cheers Taz.

[Lofty]

Gavins out of the Dutch Open, Jim? Refunded on Sky Bet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Seems so. I can't see any info but it tends to be sparse on the Euro tour for this sort of thing. Does happen occasionally with people like him who have cards for next year and don't need every penny, so if they have a twinge in the warm up or something they can drop out.

[Baz]

I’ve got far too much on wullie’s Coventry to beat Milwall this weekebd

[Jimmy Floyd]

Kearney bogeyed the last two to lose a place, great job m8.

Good luck Manc with the Mavster later - I don't think my man Kizzire has much of a chance from four back, but you never know.

[Manc]

Some big hitters in behind so I'm not holding my breath.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He should be able to take care of Jim Knous (I'm not sure how he's even in this tournament let alone leading it), and from there he has a two shot lead so I'm fairly optimistic for you.

Mito and Homa the dangers.

[Manc]

Solid return. Could have been so much sweeter.

[Baz]

If you want some free money, 3:35 at Beverley tomorrow. Straight forecast: 1 Guilded, 2 Dreams Of Thunder.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Ryder Cup

(this is on the long side a la the Masters, but I write it out to get my own thoughts in order so you might as well have it)


I could go into my usual spiel introducing the tournament, but I think we all know what the Ryder Cup is: United States vs Europe in 28 games of golf to keep the cup for the next two years. It's probably the best event in golf, possibly even the best bilateral event in all of sport, which I think is for two reasons. First of all, the team element sweeps away most of the corporate / money-driven bullshit that normally surrounds and dulls the game of golf, a game that is fundamentally thrilling but has been hamstrung for decades by the boring tossers who run and participate in it. Secondly, this is, to my knowledge, the only major sporting event in which the United States of America - competing as such - is opposed by a rival anything like its size and strength.


In reality, even the whole of Europe is, on paper, completely dwarfed by America in golfing terms. With money, top events and the generously funded college system all aggressively concentrated within the US of A, European golf is always playing catch up. The USA always names by far the stronger Ryder Cup side on paper. I think there has only been one occasion in history, 2006, when Europe have matched America on paper. All of this points to American domination with Europe as perennial underdogs. Europe are perennial underdogs - and yet they have won seven of the last nine Ryder Cups, which is a real sporting curiosity. Once again, in 2021, USA go off at 1.59 on the exchange, with Europe 3.25 and the tie 14. So will Europe continue their remarkable habit of bucking the odds, or are USA going to get it together this time?


Preview


US Team

All the smartest analysts I read agree: America have got their team right this time. The six automatic qualifiers are all studs in the top 15 in the world, and they have an unprecedented high of six captain's picks to complement them. These were Spieth, Schauffele, Finau, Berger, English and Scheffler. As it happened, five of the six were the next five on the qualifying list, so unlike some I am not going head over heels to praise captain Stricker for his ingenious selections. There was a campaign by some for shorter-hitting battlers like Kisner or Na to make the side, but the American plan has been clear from the off: they are going to set the course up to favour long hitting with no premium on accuracy, and they have picked players to suit. The theoretical strength of this US side is almost unlimited - it's a side without weaknesses.


Europe Team

In contrast to America, Europe have had a number of players run into questionable form over the summer. The Moliwood partnership of 2018 has proved short-lived, with Francesco Molinari well out of sorts for some time now and not making the side. The headline act is the world number one, Jon Rahm, who is by far the world's best golfer. However, his support act is nowhere near as deep as what America has. Many of Europe's multiple winning players are now in their 40s and there is a question mark over whether they have another tilt in them. Justin Rose has not even made it, snubbed for a pick in favour of Shane Lowry, a decision which caused outrage among those who watch little golf and look to name recognition in this event, but makes perfect sense for those who do. Veterans Poulter and Garcia won the other two captains' picks, but Europe find themselves very much the weaker in theory of the two sides.


Preview - Foursomes

There are eight points up for grabs in foursomes, in which teams of two golfers hit alternate shots on the same ball. Generally this calls for steady players who meet the course requirements. The key to strategy here is that one of your pair tees off on the odd holes and another on the even holes. My reading is that your stronger driver needs to be on the even holes, with a good iron player taking the odd holes as there are three par 3s and some more open par 4s on the odd side. There is no way that USA can possibly field Bryson DeChambeau in this format - he is a complete headcase. I also expect them to rest Brooks Koepka, who is an awkward tit at the best of times and also unfit. They have many options available to them, but this is what I would expect to see from the US in terms of foursomes pairings:


Spieth / Thomas

Morikawa / Schauffele / Cantlay (any two from these three)

Johnson / English

Finau / Scheffler - I am less certain about this one, but this is a 'feel-good' pair with matching golf games, and gets rookie Scottie into the thick of it early.


Europe have a more daunting task. There are only five strong drivers in the European 12, and if you remove rookie Hovland, I expect captain Harrington to install Rahm, McIlroy, Casey and Garcia as their even hole drivers to lead each pair. Short hitting Fitzpatrick and rookie Wiesberger may struggle to get a look in here. I think it might pan out like this:


Rahm / Hovland

McIlroy / Lowry (I believe Lowry was picked specifically to play with his old Irish junior sparring partner McIlroy)

Garcia / Poulter

Casey / any of the English contingent - Fleetwood probably favourite


I think this will be Europe's strongest format, due to the precision with which they can plan, whereas American egos and lack of clarity in preparation tend to get in the way. If they don't have the better of this 8-point set, they will almost certainly lose the Ryder Cup.


Preview - Fourballs

Eight more games will be in the fourball format, where each team fields a pair and all four players play their own ball, the team's best score counting for that hole. This means that you can team someone going on the all out attack with someone else playing more steadily. America I think will look like this:


Spieth / Thomas

Morikawa / Schauffele / Cantlay (any two from these three)

Johnson / Berger OR Koepka / Berger

Finau / DeChambeau


The Johnson / Koepka / DeChambeau triangle of menace is what is going to cause the USA problems in this Ryder Cup. Johnson and Koepka, former friends and fourball partners, ended the loss in 2018 having a punch up in the team room, and apparently no longer speak. Koepka and DeChambeau have had a well publicised feud this year. None of the three can possibly play with each other, so depending on how things pan out you can expect them to partner Finau, Berger and Scheffler in some combination, with only two of them out there at a time so as not to disrupt the more likeable pairings above. Poor old Tony Finau, by all accounts the nicest man on the team, is going to end up going around with some real stinking blokes.


Europe are blessed with a few more options in fourballs than they have in foursomes. I expect Rahm and McIlroy to play every session no matter what, but there are ways they could mix things up and rest some of their older legs in this format. For example, if they wanted to give Casey or Garcia a game off, you might see:


Rahm / Hovland

McIlroy / Lowry

Westwood / Wiesberger

Fleetwood / Hatton


This format suits America more, but Europe will be looking to share the points or better if they can, and go into the Sunday singles at least level.


Preview - Singles


This is where America should have a clear advantage. Unlike in the pairs formats where Europe can play to their strengths and avoid their weaknesses, in the singles there is no hiding place. A lot will depend on the scoreboard going into the singles session, and the course setup that results. If the USA are in front, you can expect them to make it a pitch and putt, with flags in the middle of greens and easy birdies on offer. If USA are chasing from behind, they will need to make it as long as they possibly can, and so try to expose the weaker European players like Fitzpatrick and Wiesberger.


The European order will be crucial in this respect. A clever US captain would not mind losing a couple of points to Rahm and whoever if he can nail the weaker Europeans, traditionally found at the middle to end of the order. As a result, I would expect Harrington to deploy an unusual order in an attempt to avoid this and find matchups like English, Berger or Scheffler for his weaker players. Whatever he does, it will be a tall order for Europe to win this session.


Selections


Given all I have said above, there are five (well, actually six) bets which I find enticing for this week's matches. Some of them are contradictory, but I think all are logical and represent value in a very difficult market.


Winner: Europe 2/1. There are many routes to victory for the US and fewer for Europe, but I believe there is a very plausible one of the latter that may well play out. 1. There is some disharmony in the US team, who have spent almost two weeks at the venue, and captain Stricker proves too nice a man to be able to sort it out. Some have overthought things, while others are just dickheads. The team's brains are frazzled, and pairings are compromised as a result. 2. Captain Harrington, in the great tradition of European captains, promotes a relaxed atmosphere among his strong mix of characters, producing a team that is not over-prepared and has nothing to lose. 3. Europe's relative lack of options plays to their advantage in the pairs matches, with everyone knowing their roles. Stricker tinkers after a disappointing Friday, but the heat is on his players. 4. Europe take a narrow lead into the Sunday singles, and then the wind kicks up, as it is presently forecast to do. This brings players like Fleetwood, Westwood and Lowry into play, and neutralises several Americans. Europe tie the singles 6-6 and hang on for victory.


Correct score: USA 18-10 Europe, 16/1. If one runs through another scenario, one finds what is I believe a value selection, even if I think Europe to win represents the outright trophy value. In this world, the Americans, bolstered by six world class rookies untroubled by recent American failures, pepper the easy-placed flagsticks with a barrage of birdies from the first morning. They win each day 5-3 despite some European fight in the foursomes, as the Europeans are unable to touch the US when they play their own balls. In the singles, it becomes a rout, with the monstrous par fives playing into American hands and an 8-4 session hammering feeding a joint record victory total.


Top Event Rookie: Shane Lowry 15/2. As stated above, I believe Lowry has been selected to partner McIlroy and if this partnership goes well, I can see him playing 4 or even 5 times. Many of his rivals in this market - most of them highly-ranked Americans like Morikawa, Cantlay and Schauffele - will rest up for form and fatigue reasons. Europe have no such luxury.


Top points scorer / to score 5 points: Jordan Spieth 11/1 & 50/1. Spieth is the golden child and unless there is some kind of disaster, I expect him to play all five matches for the US, four of them paired with Justin Thomas. Spieth loves Whistling Straits (he finished 2nd to Jason Day in the PGA here in 2015, the last time big time golf visited here) and has been back to glorious madcap form this season, albeit admittedly less so in recent weeks. However, I expect him to be very tough to beat for the Europeans, even if there are problems for his team elsewhere.


Day 2 winner: USA 11/10. For some reason, at time of writing on Skybet, USA are 4/5 to win Friday and 11/10 to win Saturday. Each day features the same type of matches, and the USA have a deeper squad and younger legs, so I don't really understand why this is. There is a slightly stiffer wind forecast, but that alone would not be worth that kind of odds shift.


Top European points: Sergio Garcia 11/1. Rahm and McIlroy lead this market, but in the event either has a quiet time of it, Garcia represents the outstanding value. Garcia may be a captain's pick but he is a key player for Europe, not only being the record points scorer in the Ryder Cup for a reason, but also still being one of their best 4 drivers of the ball and therefore someone that Harrington will need to lean heavily on. I see Garcia playing all five games if things go well for him, so 11/1 seems value in this arena.

[niko_cee]

I don't have much insight into the event, but for me the yanks appear to be short of a few rabble-rousing dickheads who are usually central to their successes. Quite a staid bunch.

[Baz]

If you want some free money, 3:35 at Beverley tomorrow. Straight forecast: 1 Guilded, 2 Dreams Of Thunder.

Easy money. :thbup:

[Offshore Toon]

Very much like Joshua-Usyk result by split decision either way @9.5.

[Don]

Man City are well above evens at PSG. They should never be that price in any football match let alone one against that dodgy shite.

[Manc]

Choo choo.

[Don]

They ain't rotated. Choo choo indeed. Same with us tbf although we're facing the best target man in world football so...

[Jimmy Floyd]

On siddy @ 2.4

[Manc]

Men against boys. Piled in on a City 3/1.

[Don]

Yep, need to get an early one and open the floodgates, fucking Bernardo Silva.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I bailed at half time. Back to small balls and varicose veins for me.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/d98d17b/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2048x1576+0+0/resize/840x646!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F55%2Fa6%2F4940147234 c27ccdd4808436110b%2Fla-1533662034-ak7pgctvyr-snap-image

[Don]

Absolutely filth but it was never a Bayern mismatch. The teturn legs in both shall make us millionaires.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Sanderson Farms Championship

The Ryder Cup is over and the comedown is this slightly random 2nd event of the new season in Jackson, Mississippi. The field suffers from the Whistling Straits hangover but defending champion Sergio Garcia, who won for me last year at 40/1, does play. However, I think this is very much as an obligation to defend, so instead of him I will be backing youngster Sam Burns, who is one of the few outside the victorious American twelve who will fancy forcing his way past some of them and into the next squad for Rome. Burns is a long, straight driver and in the last few events here that has been the profile of player to win. However, before that some proper randos ruled the roost, with wins for the likes of Peter Malnati, Cody Gribble and Ryan Armour. It's a great place to set up your career versus a not great early-season field and so at longer prices I have sided with several of the newly-promoted PGA Tour players.

Burns 14/1
Pendrith 66/1
T.Moore 100/1
Hagy 175/1
Lahiri 200/1
McGreevy 400/1

Dunhill Links

This is a great if slightly chaotic annual autumn visit to the Scottish links, taking place across the contrasting trio of Kingsbarns (new), St Andrews (old) and Carnoustie (hard). It is also a pro-am, which makes for very long rounds as the celebs do their stuff alongside the pros. Usually Irish horse shark JP McManus is to be found near the top of the leaderboard as he lies about his handicap once again. This year the pro field is quite strong and there are some cracking 'erm, what?' amateur pairings too. Who could not be dazzled by pairings such as Max Kieffer/Wladimir Klitschko, Luke Donald/Jamie Redknapp or Eddie Pepperell/Ronan Keating. For the betting I've avoided the Ryder Cup contingent, who will be mentally and physically drained, and gone for a fresher team while avoiding drifting too far down the market - the winners here tend to have pedigree.

Migliozzi 45/1
Canter 60/1
Jordan 60/1
Burmester 66/1
MW Lee 70/1

[Manc]

In Mito we trust.

[Don]

Had a £50 treble on Juve, Benfica, Utd draw for £2.5k :happycry:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Burmester has gone from a slim chance of winning to trying to hold onto a place...

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think he will place with a four at the last, 17 is playing wildly over par so a few will trip up there on the way in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mr Burns is my 9th winner of the year, not a terribly outlandish one at 14/1 but they all count.

Winning is always a convenient time to post the annual P/L again:

661pts staked, 923.23pts returned (+39.67%)
341 selections, 9 winners, 42 places, 290 losers

I'm -7% in 2H (since 1 July), so the bonkers first half carrying it a little bit but a bounceback recently.

[phonics]

Not the kind of betting we’re talking about but I’ve been playing poker a lot recently and I think if I just quit every time I doubled my money and quit when I lost my buy in. I’d be up about 100 quid now. So frustrating.

[phonics]

Also because this is the first time I’m in this thread. I’m going to presume Jimmy is making up all these golf names.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

This event in Las Vegas always gets a strong field for the time of year, mainly I think because pro golfers love going to Vegas and drinking/shagging their way through the various casinos. On the course it can be quite hard to predict, but it's a pretty fun easy course that is ripe for low scores and dramatic finishes. Several Ryder Cuppers make their returns to the grind here, and after recent wins for Homa and Burns, my biggest play is on Scottie Scheffler to break his duck.

Scheffler 22/1
Casey 33/1
Streelman 70/1
Piercy 125/1
Jaeger 125/1
Putnam 200/1

Open de España

This is one of the weirdest fields I have seen for a long time in golf. It's a bog standard European field... and Jon Rahm. I presume Rahm is playing in this fairly low-money event not only for the glory of winning his home Open, but also to try and get a win to catch Morikawa and Horschel at the top of the Race to Dubai standings. Either way, he is going off 9/4, which is the shortest odds I have seen a golfer go off at for at least 15 years, since the infancy of my golf betting days, when prime Tiger was still stalking the fairways. Amazingly, I think there is still some value in that, because Rahm is so much better than everyone else here that if he plays well (by his own standards) it's basically all over. No one else appeals, so this is it, kids: my split with Rahm is over and the full 5pts is going on one man.

Rahm 9/4

I'll also play the Rahm/Scheffler double at 73/1 for shits and giggles.

[Baz]

Does any bookie have 5-0 to Australia for the Ashes?

[Jimmy Floyd]

No, but Australia 1/3 outright on Sky bet is... value.

[Jimmy Floyd]

5 holes into the tournament, 67 to go, Rahm has gone odds-on. Haven't seen scenes like this since the Sheffield Rally.

[Don]

Iran and Japan double at I think around 3.8.

[Baz]

Apparently Oisin Murphy glassed someone last night? :facepalm:

[phonics]

Is there a poker thread. If not I have had the worst beats of my life. I have been beaten by 4 of a kind 5 times. I finished 16th in a 10k poker tournament that paid out the top 12 finishes and had my first placing in a tournament that didnt cover all the other losses.

[Don]

South Korea tomorrow at 3.6 away to us. No crowd permitted and results will show us being on a 10 game winning streak under our new manager whilst SK have struggled against weaker opposition. However, having watched all the games, I can confirm our manager is clueless, our defence is shite and we can't string 3 passes together whilst SK have been unlucky with their finishing and are a much much superior side.

The only 2 risk factors are our pitch isn't ideal for SK's quick passing game and we have 2 elite strikers who can work individual magic to make shit happen but I'm fairly confident it's a tasty bet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've consulted my friends in the Zoroastrian community, who have in turn been in touch with Ahura Mazda himself, and apparently he says 0-0 nailed on.

[Manc]

Is The Computer dead?

I like Garcia & Noren for the CJ Cup.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm having this and next week off as I haven't had / won't have time to do the research, rest assured I will be back after that.

From a quick glance, agree with Garcia, would also look at KH Lee at a long price.

[Baz]

Dhoni 20/1 MOTM today in IPL final. Go and collect now tbf

In all seriousness, if he does anything of note in the final and CSK win they’ll probably give it him. Potentially his last IPL and the most loved man in Indian cricket, wouldn’t surprise me if they gave it him for a 20 off 18 balls ffs

[Baz]

My 365 account got limited again :happycry:

Gonna have to stop doing antepost bets on these disposable accounts cos gonna have to make a note of all the bets still standing and log back in to claim any winnings. Annoying.

[-james-]

Are you getting accounts off acquaintances, or have you moved on to shady Bangladeshis on Telegram?

[Baz]

Are you getting accounts off acquaintances, or have you moved on to shady Bangladeshis on Telegram?Found a reliable seller the lads in my tipping chat use.

https://t.me/IOUBettingAccounts

2 365s for £25, but other accounts are available much cheaper and they do sales most Fridays on everything except 365. They’re all purposely made accounts using fake IDs where you can change all the details except the name and address as soon as you get them.

[-james-]

What sort of stuff are you staking and how long do they last?

[Baz]

What sort of stuff are you staking and how long do they last?£25 a point. Usually average 15 points a day.

Can’t remember when I got it but P&L since June shows +£2481.29 with £1047 stakes still unsettled.

Thankfully bought 2 when I got it so can continue as normal.

[igor_balis]

Is there a poker thread. If not I have had the worst beats of my life. I have been beaten by 4 of a kind 5 times. I finished 16th in a 10k poker tournament that paid out the top 12 finishes and had my first placing in a tournament that didnt cover all the other losses.

love poker, wanna play some time m8

[phonics]

love poker, wanna play some time m8
Get a pokerstars account and I can play with you. Is the only company that’s legal here.

Followup on the above post. I spent 5 hours finishing 8th of 562 on another tournament and didn’t realise it was a 11 cent buyin I’d clicked on and won 4.62.

[igor_balis]

Get a pokerstars account and I can play with you. Is the only company that’s legal here.

Followup on the above post. I spent 5 hours finishing 8th of 562 on another tournament and didn’t realise it was a 11 cent buyin I’d clicked on and won 4.62.

I have it. I'm "gvshk", hmu

[Manc]

Can't see past Xander for the Zozo.

[Don]

Porto should be a shoe-im today. Taremi up against a significantly weakened Milan side :drool: Gonna double up with Liverpool. May back Leipzig too.

[Baz]

Skybet account limited now :(

[Manc]

Atalanta at 4/1 is absolute filth.

[Don]

I'll join on that (or some silly goals line) alongside Juve.

[Baz]

All aboard

[Offshore Toon]

On Atlanta single as well as -1 and -2. Mon.

[Don]

My boy better not come off the bench and bag for Zenit.

[Smjffy]

On Atlanta single as well as -1 and -2. Mon.

Now cover the bet. ££.

[Offshore Toon]

Used Will Hill because they had minus handicaps for Atalanta so didn't get the Bet365 payout at 2-0. Fuck sake. /o\

[Manc]

:moop:

[Don]

Shame. I had both if mine on though :drool:

[Don]

Villa :thbup:

[Baz]

Can someone please explain “The Exchange” to me, like I’m 5?

I wanna bet solely on horses and I wanna be able to stake whatever I want without getting limited. Honestly not that bothered about the odds being the best available.

Already have a Betfair account so presume I’m on my way.

So I’m backing Royal Marine tomorrow, 16:50 at Newbury, right? 2 point win at 15/2. Bam, £50 returns £425. Easy.

I look on the exchange and see it listed as 9.4 with £32 underneath it. If I input my stake as £50 it says £420 profit. Is that it? I can place all my bets on THE EXCHANGE and not bother about being limited?

What’s the £32 about?

[-james-]

Every bet you want to place has to be matched by someone on the other side. You can back a horse (the blue button) or lay a horse (the pink button). Laying it means you're on the other side of the bet, so you're in profit if the horse does not win.

The £32 is how much someone is currently laying at 9.4. If you put £50 through, the remaining £18 will sit there unmatched until someone decides to lay you (or a bot might snap it up immediately).

You won't get limited. The prices on betfair are usually sharper though so it's regarded as harder to win. Not being bothered about the odds you're taking is a quick way of reducing your balance to zero.

[Baz]

Cheers for that. Can’t you switch it to fractions for easier comparison?

[-james-]

Nah it's decimal only. I am eternally baffled by people who prefer fractional odds.

[-james-]

https://myaccount.betfair.com/rewards/my-rewards/choose

Make sure you change your commission plan to basic if it's not already (and you're not still using betfair sportsbook)

[Baz]

https://myaccount.betfair.com/rewards/my-rewards/choose

Make sure you change your commission plan to basic if it's not already (and you're not still using betfair sportsbook)

This doesn’t do anything?

https://i.imgur.com/b2MOG7t_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[-james-]

Doesn't work on my phone either. Try on a computer, and try this (https://myaccount.betfair.com/rewards/my-rewards) link instead also.

[Baz]

Changed to basic :thbup: comes into effect 1st Nov.

Was set to Rewards+ prior. Why do you recommend basic? Does 2% commission really outweigh BOG?

[-james-]

BOG only applies to bets placed on Betfair Sportsbook, which is a different product. Sportsbook a traditional bookie (found here (https://betfair.com/sportsbook)) that you can get limited on. It's a mirror of Paddy Power iirc. Use it if you've not already, and the BOG commission plan is probably better in that case.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think of the exchange as a big hall where punters gather to agree bets with each other and the guy who owns the hall takes 5% of winnings.

[Don]

Over 5.5, let's be 'avin ya. Mane off the bench should ensure tempo late into the game.

[phonics]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/270326079648956433/901882287778594886/image0.png

Progress.

[phonics]

I have it. I'm "gvshk", hmu

Did you delete your facebook? Tried to message you no luck.

[Don]

Over 5.5, let's be 'avin ya. Mane off the bench should ensure tempo late into the game.

£200 @ 6 :happycry:

[igor_balis]

Did you delete your facebook? Tried to message you no luck.

Some American cunt hacked me and I have a new FB account now, I'll message you from my new one

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bermuda Championship

This is a full PGA Tour event in name and purse and season points, but oh my lol, what a setup we have here. You wouldn't normally see the big names at this event after the no-cut tournaments we just had, but this year there is the added flavour of the island of Bermuda only allowing in vaccinated people. As such, it has instantly become very easy to spot, among the rank and file of American tour golfers, who has been vaccinated and who has not. Those who have not are missing out because the vast list of absentees mean that this is probably the weakest main tour field I have ever seen and the chance to win, make the Masters, and wrap up a two-year Tour card is as good as it ever is. The 132 places have to be filled but it's got to the point where they are basically pulling in anyone who owns a set of golf clubs to make up the numbers. Some of the names being dragged from the vaults have not been seen in the wild for donkey's years. Carlos Franco is now 56 years old, sports a big bandito moustache, and hasn't been good at golf since he was about 40. Heath Slocum I haven't seen mentioned for a good decade. John Merrick, the elephant man, makes an appearance, as does some guy called Brian Morris who has terminal cancer and has been dragged out of palliative care to fill the field (this is only a slight exaggeration).

Ramey 40/1
Rai 50/1
Smalley 50/1
Stuard 80/1
Novak 125/1
Kohles 150/1

[Don]

The over 5.5 ghosts will now be banished with an uneducated punt on the same line in the Atalanta game at 7/1. Both sides seem to bang.

[Smjffy]

Bayern 3-0 down so backed the draw at 8/1 and the win at 18/1.

Still shit odds but Bundesliga init.

Doubled up both with accs.

Bayern 18/1, Liverpool 8/11, City 8/15, Tottenham 5/4. - 112/1

Bayern 8/1, Preston 7/1, West Ham 9/1 and Burnley 9/2 - 3959/1

Bayern 18/1, Preston 7/1, West Ham 9/1 and Burnley 9/2 - 8359/1

:D

Fuck the EFL Cup. 'Mon Preston.

[Don]

Lille are a mad price, they should be up by about 5 already.

[Spikey M]

Betting on Man Utd vs Spurs is insanity. It could finish 10 - 0 to either team and any score in between.

Edit: Smiff posted that pre-Spurs vs Burnley. Stand down.

[Manc]

Lens are definitely worth a tickle at 5/1. Elsewhere I fancy Leipzig to smash Frankfurt to bits.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£5 on Spurs -1 @ 6.5
£5 on Spurs -2 @ 15.

[Baz]

While you’re all regretting watching United later, I’ll be tracking Charlton vs Rotherham.

Ben Purrington AGS 20/1

[Don]

Don't fancy any sides on today's games, Kiev and Atalanta are a little too weak to back. Over 5.5 on Atalanta game it is.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mayakoba

Henley 40/1 NAP
Streelman 66/1
Dahmen 80/1
Reavie 100/1
Garnett 140/1
R.Moore 150/1

^ this is probably the wrongest golf market since January. Bookies miles out.

Portugal Masters

N.Hojgaard 60/1
Crocker 60/1
Shinkwin 60/1
Jamieson 100/1
Pulkkanen 100/1
Lombard 175/1

[Jimmy Floyd]

Don't fancy any sides on today's games, Kiev and Atalanta are a little too weak to back. Over 5.5 on Atalanta game it is.

Lay Juve is my favoured option.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Also, sorry for 3 posts in a row about 3 different sports, but Pakistan 1.07 to beat Namibia later is as close to free money as there is. Should be like 1.02.

Reminds me of when I got on Putin to win the Russian election at 1.1.

[Manc]

Following on Henley in a big way.

[Manc]

The Maverick at 50/1 looks irresistible.

[Don]

Gonna pile into City -1 and -2 tomorrow and get infuriated by Grealish pissing about with no cutting edge.

If you needed any further inspiration, take a leaf out of this don's book:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/05/portsmouth-gp-who-gambled-away-11m-of-nhs-money-is-jailed

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hojgaard has a chance to get back into this if Pavon and Pieters keep this wobble going.

Edit: Well it's more of an earthquake for Pavon and Pieters is only a little tremor.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't think he's quite going to win but it'll be top three and he's such a gorgeous player, as long as the market has him inexplicably longer than his brother I will be milking it.

I followed him a few holes around Wentworth and my lord he's good at age 20.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Yeah I think he needed the eagle on the 17th to have a chance at winning. He's been brilliant today.

[Baz]

Doing a horse racing tote fantasy stable thing. Any of you jockeys got any suggested horses please?


Horses score points based upon the quality of races they win

You also get extra points for the price, so if you have a horse that wins at even money on the tote you’d only get 2pt but if you found a horse to win that was 30.0 on the tote you’d get 30pt

So it’s finding that balance between horses certain to win races and horses that’ll win the big races at a nice price too

[Manc]

Who do you fancy for Houston Jimmy Floyd? I like the look of Kokrak and Smith.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Haven't done the full thing yet (tonight) but yes, Smith.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Houston Open

Smith 18/1
Im 18/1
Varner III 50/1
Poulter 66/1
Jaeger 175/1

Dubai Championship

Casey 10/1
Veerman 50/1
Meronk 60/1
Armitage 70/1

[Manc]

Kokrak. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Well done, great shout. A nice sign off for him before he jets off to join the Saudi revolution.

[Baz]

If anyone wants to cross something off the ‘I’ve never bet on _____’ list, a man known as Stella Dan has offered the following for tomorrow mornings Womens Alpine slalom skiing:

My ski instructor best mate says mikaela shiffrin is a) a worldie b) should be 1/4 tomorrow but is 7/4

[Baz]

Skifo pipped at the post, finishes second ��

[Manc]

RSM cut was brutal. I've only Hughes left from a selection of five.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm sticking to Sunday punts on it this week (the research time is grinding me down of late) but it's nice to see Taylor Moore up there whom the computer rates. Talor Gooch banging the door down as well.

Dubai looks like it will be a great finish, I'm considering opposing McIlroy.

[Manc]

Hughes pulling out a 62 brings a tear to the eye.

[Manc]

Thoughts on Joburg, Jim?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I like a couple of the new CT graduates - Julien Brun & Yannik Paul.

Helligkilde tempting too but a bit short.

[Don]

I'll have a bit of Benfica at that price. Hopefully they don't sit on a draw.

[Don]

Seferovic special.

1463264329554444296

Still, the Barca raping in Munich is still on.