The Betting Thread

[Offshore Toon]

I know Newcastle are shit, but 28/1 for 0-0 seems ridiculously high for a team that manages to successfully park the bus at least once a season.

[Don]

The city handicaps are free money.

[Baz]

How many of you are on Locks Corner tomorrow? :gs:

And for how much?

[-james-]

The markets (and Nate Silver (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/)) still have massive faith in City being the best side in the league. They are basically exactly the same price as the last time (https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/premier-league-2019-2020/manchester-city-newcastle-utd-EeU9PyK4/) this fixture was played. City are worse and Newcastle are probably about the same as then so it's hard to have much faith in the minus being value. Even with that, and line-up featuring a Rodri, Gundogan double pivot and Ferran Torres up front I'm not sure I could back the + though.

[-james-]

City's games this season vs equivalent last season in terms of xG difference


City

Wolves Away:
19/20: -0.2
20/21: +0.9

Leicester Home:
19/20: +2.4
20/21: -2.7

Arsenal Home:
19/20: +3.1
20/21: +0.6

West Ham Away:
19/20: +2.3
20/21: +0.6

Sheff Utd Away:
19/20: +2.1
20/21: +1.0

Liverpool Home:
19/20: +1.4
20/21: +0.2

Spurs Away:
19/20: +2.7
20/21: +0.6

Burnley Home:
19/20: +3.0
20/21: +2.4

United Away:
19/20: -0.5
20/21: +0.2

So’ton Away:
19/20: +2.1
20/21: +0.1

They're just not putting away the muck like they used to.

[-james-]

Ends 5-0 lel.

[Offshore Toon]

How many of you are on Locks Corner tomorrow? :gs:

And for how much?
Tenner e/w. Saw the odds have halved since you posted initially.

[Don]

I'm balls deep now (missed the early price), MON.

[Don]

You fucking fraudster.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

:harold:

[Waffdon]

I backed train wreck at 50s with a £1 ew double with Darlac in the next

[Offshore Toon]

Should have known better than to trust somebody whose yearly highlight was "dodgy dealings"

[Don]

Liverpool handicaps to recoup it all. -2 at evens is the free money, the rest is what trains are made of.

[Baz]

Should have known better than to trust somebody whose yearly highlight was "dodgy dealings"
He made a mistake and jumped badly on the second to last. :sorry:

[Offshore Toon]

I was only joking. The fact the odds more than halved shows there was something in it.

[Waffdon]

He made a mistake and jumped badly on the second to last. :sorry:

Nah, he was travelling pretty badly at that point. Was never winning it.

[Lofty]

I had a couple of quid on the three draws at 100/1 but got panicked by Origi's late goal record and cashed out for £41 :moop:

[Manc]

Eye watering talent over in Leopardstown today.

13:15 - The Storyteller @ 13/2 - At the odds it's worth backing him to reverse half a length with the fav. Let's not forget this lad has beaten Gold Cup winners in the past.

14:25 - A Plus Tard @ 11/1 - Only a six year old so has scope to improve. Wasn't that far behind Min (3rd) in the Ryanair and has beaten the impressive Chacun Pour Soi in times gone by.

15:00 - The Big Getaway 10/11 - 8l behind Envoi Allen, should piss this.

[Offshore Toon]

I'll run with that, Manc.

I've done a series of doubles/trebles over Leicester, Villa and Everton. I very much like Villa to win both halves at 16/1.

[-james-]

City, Leicester, Villa DC today.

[Max Power]

Leicester backers might regret it looking at how many changes we’ve made :sick:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

What a final half mile by A Plus Tard.

[Offshore Toon]

Mon the Manc.

[Offshore Toon]

So close to the treble coming in. Great picks.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I was too late for the first but got on the other two.

Cheers Manc.

[Manc]

£140 return for the double. Possibly got a bit lucky with both Delta Work & Minella Indo falling in the Savills chase, but I'll take it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Villa crowd onto one, our midfield is all wrong for this game.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£36.50 on the Villa.

[Waffdon]

Your defence is horrific as well. Only saving grace is two actual wingers playing. Hudson Odoi will have Targett on toast

[Offshore Toon]

Gonna bet against the Ryan Garcia hype train, once Bet365 make the fucking odds available again. I'm thinking draw as the judges are probably bent.

[SincereTheRebel]

I havent seen the odds but in guessing Campbell is at least @3

[Offshore Toon]

He is. I got the draw at 18/1 and Campbell KO/TKO at 7/1.

That second round knockdown was beautiful.

[SincereTheRebel]

Garcia hitting gloves so far but that final punch of round 5 got through.

[Offshore Toon]

Yeah, he's definitely ahead so far and Campbell looks shaky. Could be over very soon but Campbell has levelled out now.

[SincereTheRebel]

Strong body blow put Campbell down and out. That look painful. Lopez and Haney beat Garcia.

[Offshore Toon]

What a body shot. Fair play, Garcia. The crown stuff is so ridiculous but he's pretty good.

[Offshore Toon]

Strong body blow put Campbell down and out. That look painful. Lopez and Haney beat Garcia.
Depends how many stops the hype train makes beforehand. If he goes for a title fight now it probably won't end well.

[Baz]

It's eary days but I'm being super disciplined with my betting this year. Tracking everything and sticking to a staking plan.

https://i.imgur.com/Jiyftkp.png

Hit rate's not amazing but return so far has been pretty great.

Probably all out the window when Cheltenham rolls around, mind.

[Lofty]

Go Boy a non runner there but stuck the rest on a Lucky 31 EW so choo choo I guess!

[Manc]

Dropping £50 on a Sunday. :drool:

Fairyhouse double @ 18/1

12:40 - Runrized - Second ever start was in the truimph hurdle and wasn't disgraced. Long time off the track, could be anything.

13:10 - Delvino - Beat a very smart type in Ballyadam on debut who has since won a G1. Huge scope.

[Kikó]

On.

[Offshore Toon]

Mon the Manc.

[Lofty]

Choo choo.

[Manc]

Shambles.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Played...

[Don]

What happened? Are we changing his name to Graham?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Both failed to place.

[Waffdon]

Chelsea -1 depending on team news.

[Pleb]

Is it still going ahead?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Chelsea -1 depending on team news.

I assume the 'team news' you're expecting is for us somehow to name Ronaldo and Messi either side of Tammy Abraham up front.

[Waffdon]

Man City team news more than anything. You have your best front three finally playing though so 2/1 is very decent odds for the win

[niko_cee]

Man City XI: Steffen, Cancelo, Stones, Dias, Zinchenko, Rodri, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, Sterling, Foden

Looks fairly rancid.

[Offshore Toon]

Fuck it, Mon the Waff.

[Waffdon]

Lol

[Offshore Toon]

Waff is cancelled.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bonjour and a happy new year. Tournament of Champions. These are dull picks but there is absolutely nothing in the market, tightest one I've ever seen.

D.Johnson 6/1
Reed 16/1
Muñoz 55/1
Horschel 66/1

All E/W.

[Pleb]

The Jimmy train is here lads.

Buckle up.

[Manc]

I'll follow on Reed. Money down for JT also.

[Don]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55560401

This should be an interesting affair. Markets have Chorley a slight fave. No opinion myself, just interested to see how it pans out.

[Lofty]

It's hard because I have seen these reserve teams play lower league teams in the cup and batter them. I might have a single but would swerve it for my acca.

Speaking of which, I often feel this saturday is the most potentially profitable in the football calendar due to the round of the FA Cup, a lot of big teams playing lower league opposition. There are some question marks over the likes of West Brom and Sheffield United, but simply backing all the PL teams against the weaker ones and the likes of Milwall against Boreham Wood pushes the odds right up.

Could be a potential train in there if we could narrow down the cupset potential.

[Waffdon]

Dundee United are 7/2 to beat St Johnstone at home and I can’t quite get my head around it. United aren’t on great form but they’ve faced the top four recently and are a lot more reliable than the latter. If not going outright, lump on double chance as it should be about 1/3

[Waffdon]

Pitch inspection at 12 apparently so hold off for now

[Kikó]

It's fucking freezing here (-1) so could be a frozen one.

[Waffdon]

-7 last night in Perth so probably similar there. There is under soil heating but no idea how good that is.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bonjour and a happy new year. Tournament of Champions. These are dull picks but there is absolutely nothing in the market, tightest one I've ever seen.

D.Johnson 6/1
Reed 16/1
Muñoz 55/1
Horschel 66/1

All E/W.

I'm only scoreboard watching but Horschel is look good right now.

It's also a shame Munoz had a shitter on day 1 otherwise he'd be right up there.

[Manc]

Feelings towards JT Jimmy Floyd?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Speaking of JT:

1348070252731633665

This wasn't great.

[Manc]

That's what I was getting at. Do keep up.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That's what I was getting at. Do keep up.

I thought you were talking about his ability to win it here seeing as you've got money on him.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Feelings towards JT Jimmy Floyd?

Hasn't improved my opinion of him. It's not worth cancelling him (or anyone) over, but at the same time if you use it in that situation you probably use it a lot, and it's not a word I like at all. Has a nasty edge to it that the other ones don't, the yanks seem to love it.

Most American golfers are genuinely terrible people and JT always comes across OK to me, but, yeah, well, whatever. Let's put it this way, you hear Tyrrell Hatton mouthing off on every hole of every round but you never hear him say that. And to be fair, you never hear Bryson or Reed say it either. It's not a great look.

[Lofty]

The computer obviously has a method given three of the selections currently sit at 16 under and the other 15 under.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If Munoz hadn't played like a wanker on Thursday he would be right in it. Would like to see Joaco win this, lovely player.

[Waffdon]

If you can find a market for Hibs/Celtic might be worth lumping on the former. They were 13/2 before bookies realised majority of Celtic’s team is self isolating. The latter are pretty shite anyway

Edit: new odds probably aren’t worth it. They’ll be playing their third choice keeper if the list of players out is correct but still have first choice midfield and attack

[Lofty]

Sky Bet have Hibs 3/1?

[-james-]

It's total guesswork at this stage without knowing who is out. Not many Hibs players who would get into a second string Celtic side anyway.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Sony Open

Simpson 12/1
Bradley 60/1
Na 66/1
Piercy 90/1
Perez 200/1

The best value of the five by a mile is Na.

[Waffdon]

It's total guesswork at this stage without knowing who is out. Not many Hibs players who would get into a second string Celtic side anyway.

Barkas
Hazard
Ajer
Ralston
Brown
Soro
Turnbull
Connell
Ajeti
Laxalt
Ntcham
Griffiths
Edouard

That’s doing the rounds but I’d take it with a pinch of salt. Would
Leave them with 3rd choice keeper and a youth player up front

[-james-]

Hard to imagine Edouard and Ntcham aren't two of the thirteen who got told to isolate tbh.

[Don]

Livingston price looks nice given they seem to have been not up to much tonight.

[Lofty]

Anyone seen this new betting craze doing long accas betting over 1.5 goals on farmer's leagues? Some guy landed one for £11k off a tenner earlier in the week and now everyone is trying it, to the point bookies are now suspending markets on the dodgiest fixtures :D

[Waffdon]

2.37 for Fulham not to lose with that Chelsea line up is very good odds. They played a better team against Morecambe

[-james-]

Sony Open

Simpson 12/1
Bradley 60/1
Na 66/1
Piercy 90/1
Perez 200/1

The best value of the five by a mile is Na.

First time follower, and I'm cursing it by posting, but our boy Kevin is having a day of it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is doing very nicely. I'm slightly afraid of Niemann for the win, but good chance of place.

[Lofty]

Simpson rolling up to joint second with Na is good news for the computer but bad news for dead heat odds settling.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Kevin Na winning with Simpson placing would be the perfect result here.

[Baz]

I'm still following my tipster's staking plan and up 37.675 points, aka £ 188.38 for January. :)

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think Steeley might go away with it now. Two places would be a good result though.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

4 way tie at the top right now :eyemouth:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Kevin Na \0/.

The Computer coming up big early in the year.

Touch under £150 profit for me.

[-james-]

Top stuff Jimmy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He had a few moments in that round but ultimately was just hitting it too well. 66/1 was straight up banditry, no idea what they were playing at.

[Luca]

I made a mental note to myself to open up a betting account and get on the Jimmy train this year, but the Old-Order Mennonites that run my bank don't do business with gambling companies, so I'll have to get creative to load my account without signing up for some questionable third party transfer service. Twats.

EDIT: Turns out the majority of Canada's banks and fintechs are run by Old Order Mennonites.

[Lofty]

Yeah, excellent stuff Jim. Thanks!

[Baz]

I made a mental note to myself to open up a betting account and get on the Jimmy train this year, but the Old-Order Mennonites that run my bank don't do business with gambling companies, so I'll have to get creative to load my account without signing up for some questionable third party transfer service. Twats.

EDIT: Turns out the majority of Canada's banks and fintechs are run by Old Order Mennonites. Hey, I think you should get a Monzo account. Get one through this link:

https://join.monzo.com/r/340el90

[Lofty]

Does anyone ever use your affiliate links, Baz? :D

[Boydy]

I made a mental note to myself to open up a betting account and get on the Jimmy train this year, but the Old-Order Mennonites that run my bank don't do business with gambling companies, so I'll have to get creative to load my account without signing up for some questionable third party transfer service. Twats.

EDIT: Turns out the majority of Canada's banks and fintechs are run by Old Order Mennonites.

Just use paypal?

[Luca]

Nah, Bet365 doesn't accept that here in Canada either. The intermediary services on offer ("iDebit" is one of them, "Instadebit" isbanother) have a history of being a bit wonky, so I'd rather avoid.

I've been meaning to try out Neo Financial (a new neobank here) so I'll give it a whirl for this. Probably won't work, so I'll have to resign myself to using one of the above-mentioned services.

[Boydy]

Oh, that's annoying.

[Kikó]

Feels like I've had no luck on when to follow Jimmy's train - one time I did it I forgot to do e/w so the place didn't even stick any money back. Great work again though.

[Jimmy Floyd]

American Express

This is a slightly odd one. Much like Hawaii last week it's normally a pretty run of the mill event which would not attract the HUGE names, but this year Jon Rahm is playing and the market is a mess as a result. If he doesn't win, whoever does will do so at a tasty price. The computer likes Rahm so much that even his short price favourite status is seen as amazing value, so we're on him, and then I've gone with a few bigger priced citizens too.

Rahm 6/1
Champ 40/1
Clark 80/1
List 200/1
Bramlett 300/1

Abu Dhabi

The first Euro event of the season has a great if very top heavy field, almost the equal of the US event according to owgr. Rory McIlroy is playing here, as is Justin Thomas, who looks to atone for last week's 'faggot' controversy by taking a hefty appearance fee to play in a locality where homosexuality carries the death penalty. The computer barely makes the field favourite vs McIlroy and Thomas, so I have to be on one of them, but they're quite hard to separate. I've gone with McIlroy as he knows the territory a bit better, though perhaps Thomas will benefit from the newfound freedom to choose his own clothes.

McIlroy 6/1
Hatton 12/1
Coetzee 125/1
Rock 150/1

All E/W

[Baz]

£2.77 EW on them all.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair Sportsbook have the American's priced very generously.

Rahm @ 7.5, Champ @ 46, Clark @ 126(!) and Bramlett @ 401(!).

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'll say once again that I quote Coral's odds which are almost always total shit, but that actually assists me in terms of being choosy about selections and sticking to the real value as opposed to borderline players who might otherwise be tempting.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

It seems to happen a lot less these days anyway.

The Abu Dhabi ones are all at the exact same price.

[Jimmy Floyd]

American Express

This is a slightly odd one. Much like Hawaii last week it's normally a pretty run of the mill event which would not attract the HUGE names, but this year Jon Rahm is playing and the market is a mess as a result. If he doesn't win, whoever does will do so at a tasty price. The computer likes Rahm so much that even his short price favourite status is seen as amazing value, so we're on him, and then I've gone with a few bigger priced citizens too.

Rahm 6/1
Champ 40/1
Clark 80/1
List 200/1
Bramlett 300/1

Wipe this out as Rahm has now withdrawn. Probably stick with most or all the others but will have to do a re-calculation.

[niko_cee]

Is that why the event appears to have disappeared off Betfair?

Guess everyone's odds will be getting a serious shave so Mahow may be sitting pretty on some of those.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yes, it will be.

From memory I'm fairly sure Champ will still be value in the new field, but I'll have to have a look at those further up the tree. I have never yet had the Code Red situation in which Tony Finau shows up as value, not sure what I'll do then, probably notify Interpol.

[Lofty]

Glad I went balls deep on the market as soon as Jim gave us the good word. Got Bramlett at 500s on Sky Bet.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Champ has moved to 41 (so same price as the original Coral price).

No other Jimmy selection has moved in the American Express.

[Jimmy Floyd]

American Express v2

Champ 40/1
Gooch 66/1
Clark 80/1
Schenk 175/1
List 200/1
Bramlett 300/1

Computer doesn't like any of the favourites sans Rahm, so we're spreading our stakes a bit thinner.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hatton is looking quite good here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think he's in pretty handy shape, unlike Cam Champ.

That Bob Hope / Amex tournament is a fucking crapshoot if ever there was one. Sure enough Big Tony is in-running fav, pass me the smelling salts. Three of the six at least haven't spewed their guts all over the first round which is a bonus really.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hopefully Hatton can win it tomorrow as I have more money (and his odds are better) on him but it's looking quite good heading into day 4. Coetzee also is currently in a dead heat place too so if he can pull away from the pack that would be lovely.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The way I stake (at least on paper) is I give myself 5pts per tournament and distribute them accordingly. In this I have 2pts each on McIlhatton and half a point on Coetzee and Rock. Normally it's much more even but this was a clearly topheavy field (he says smugly before his men placed 1-2 fuck it tomorrow and David Lipsky wins).

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://i.imgur.com/4Ee2ExF.png

https://i.imgur.com/P21BHae.png

Few quid back on Rory too.

Thanks Jim.

[Lofty]

Yep, thanks again Jim. The Computer could end up being the TTH pension fund at this rate.

[Baz]

Vitaly Janelt 6/1 to be booked. :eek:

Edit- nope

[Kikó]

Cheers Jim!

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hatton is an ice cold killer. Executed McIlroy in that head to head today. Can't wait for the next time the computer likes him (probably in America).

[Jimmy Floyd]

Farmers Insurance

I always like this tournament because it's at Torrey Pines, which was the only available course on Microsoft Golf, which was the only game installed on the Windows 95 when my parents first got a computer in 1995. It's ace: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAC3Asz8zV4

The US Open will also be held on this course later in the year so it's a bit surprising that only McMince and Rahm of the top, top names are playing. Anyway, I despise what the computer has come up with for this, but Big Dick Rick really needs something asap to get his career going again, and it looks like my ride or die relationship with Hideki is back on. His putting remains a bomb scare but the rest of his game is genuinely world class and projects for results. It'll happen one day.

Matsuyama 22/1
Fowler 55/1
W.Clark 100/1
Tringale 125/1
Brehm 400/1

Dubai Desert Classic

I'm not sure why Morikawa is playing in this, but he is, so there you are - he's about the only bloke with a Japanese name that I won't be backing this week. Hatton leads the market but without the twin titans of last week pushing his price out, the value isn't quite there. Instead we're going with a pincer attack with overpriced duo Paul 'cool beans' Casey and one of our autumn winners Sergio Garcia, as well as a complete left field selection in Japanese youngster Takumi Kanaya, who is making his European Tour debut. Tasteless rice wine for everyone.

Casey 20/1
Garcia 22/1
Kitayama 100/1
Kanaya 125/1
Els 300/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Arigato.

[Lofty]

Cheers Jim.

[Waffdon]

Spurs -1 AH @6.4 :drool:

[Don]

Sit the fuck down, lad.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Casey :cool:

The Computer has started 2021 on fire.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm a bit miffed about Kanaya narrowly missing a place, but three wins in three weeks is scenes.

[Mike]

Won me a cool £15

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm a bit miffed about Kanaya narrowly missing a place, but three wins in three weeks is scenes.

Can you see anyone in America pulling their finger out from here?

Tringale & Clark the closest but they're still 4 shots behind the placing right now and there are some big names in and around there.

Looks a bit of a write off at the moment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think -9 will be the lowest score for a place (maybe -10), so will need a low one. I can't see it.

The main interest over there is Patrick Reed being caught cheating (yet again) yesterday and the fallout as he currently shares the lead.

[Kikó]

Cheers Jimmy again!

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's a bit of a lucky run but at the same time, it's gone on long enough now that when I read the big name tipsters each week and see their (heavily researched, well thought-out) takes for considerably less results than I am getting in about 1/10th of the time spent, it makes me think this stuff is sometimes simpler than people make it.

I'm obviously not going to give away exactly what I do but there are basically three important variables that go into it (all using readily available information), and half the time I think these people are trying to involve about 20 variables, most of which are useless noise. For instance, no one went near Casey this week because he's had a long flight. Why? Why would a long flight (in first class) stop you from playing good golf days later?

Now for a six month losing run to prove I'm talking bollocks, but whatever.

[Lofty]

Top work again Jim, cheers.

[Baz]

Be interested to see if The Computer doesn’t pick Justin Thomas.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It won't this week but rest assured the only things that go into the computer are golfing information. What it spits out is up to it.

[-james-]

How mathsy is the computer, Jimmy?

[Jimmy Floyd]

How mathsy is the computer, Jimmy?

Not terribly. The bookies will have better, and they cover most inefficiencies with their overround anyway. Although I'm up a fair bit since I started using this (around 100%, I think), I still find it hard to believe my method actually has a long term edge. It's just about knowing what REALLY makes good golfers good, rather than what people think makes them good. In every tournament there is normally (if I'm lucky) one big red flag on a player and a handful of little flags. I just run what I have against the odds and see what comes up.

When I put Na up the other week and singled him out, which I rarely do, it was screaming out as the big mistake (I think he was 66/1 and I had him 40/1). Then him actually winning at 40/1 is just luck. But you've got to be fox in the box for those, as you know better than me.

I think it's very likely that at some point this year I'll go three months without a bean and then I'll look like a wanker, but that's golf - it's a great sport to bet on because you can lose all the time and then your one win blows it all away.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Phoenix Open

This is always a fun tournament in the desert. Scottsdale will be familiar to anyone who had the old Tiger Woods series on playstation. Normally the 16th hole par 3 is a stadium hole packed with thousands of the very worst of trailer-party drunken college yahoos. Last year at the same hole they also managed the most hilariously mawkish tribute in sporting history by placing the pin 24 feet on, 8 from the left in honour of Kobe Bryant's old shirt numbers. No tournament will be more different with no fans and without all the commotion one can expect a birdie fest and very low winning score.

Rahm 6/1
English 28/1
Huh 110/1
Moore 125/1
Dahmen 150/1
D.Lee 300/1

Saudi Invitational

This whole event, and my picks for it, make me want to puke. This is the very worst that sport has to offer. Set in the centuries-old golfing, erm, mecca of King Abdullah Economic City, this tournament is effectively an advertisement for the murderous ways of MBS and his cronies. Golf, of course, being golf, laps this up with the self-awareness of someone who has just been sliced up with a bonesaw and placed into a number of holdalls. One only has to look back to last year and Phil Mickelson's risible claim that his appearance here was about 'doing my bit to grow the game in the Kingdom' as he smiled to the cameras and launched an exhibition drive into the Red Sea. Perhaps this year they will invite him to behead a local gay man instead. With big bung appearance fees on offer, Phil is not the only American star keen to miss Phoenix and fly halfway across the globe to play on the European Tour. Popular figures like Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau also make the journey, as does Dustin Johnson. It's an unpleasant spectacle; I am disappointed in a lot of the top British players for playing in it (props to Rory McIlroy and Matthew Fitzpatrick for never having done so) and I will avoid watching it but I don't see the harm in trying to scalp a cynical few quid out of it. When in Rome.

DeChambeau 9/1
Finau 18/1
Rose 50/1
Vegas 110/1
Hall 200/1

[Kikó]

ON IT.

x

[-james-]

Not terribly. The bookies will have better, and they cover most inefficiencies with their overround anyway. Although I'm up a fair bit since I started using this (around 100%, I think), I still find it hard to believe my method actually has a long term edge. It's just about knowing what REALLY makes good golfers good, rather than what people think makes them good. In every tournament there is normally (if I'm lucky) one big red flag on a player and a handful of little flags. I just run what I have against the odds and see what comes up.

When I put Na up the other week and singled him out, which I rarely do, it was screaming out as the big mistake (I think he was 66/1 and I had him 40/1). Then him actually winning at 40/1 is just luck. But you've got to be fox in the box for those, as you know better than me.

I think it's very likely that at some point this year I'll go three months without a bean and then I'll look like a wanker, but that's golf - it's a great sport to bet on because you can lose all the time and then your one win blows it all away.

100% ROI is bonkers, and as you say likely unsustainable, but the sample seems big enough to indicate that whatever you're doing does work.

I've seen so many maths/comp science graduates try and build a model to beat the football markets and utterly fail because they have no idea how the game works, while some of the best gamblers I know have never written an Excel formula. The sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle.

[Mike]

All aboard

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've seen so many maths/comp science graduates try and build a model to beat the football markets and utterly fail because they have no idea how the game works, while some of the best gamblers I know have never written an Excel formula. The sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle.

I suspect football is much harder to build a model for in that way, as the result is often less to do with the process and more to do with certain high-leverage moments. OK, if Liverpool play Northampton then you basically know that the process will dictate the outcome, but Liverpool v Man City may well hinge on who happens to convert a chance at a particular moment, which is luck. I suppose what you're looking for is a very small margin in the process that the market hasn't seen. In a 2 horse race with high liquidity, that must be almost impossible.

In golf, the winner's having around 275 stabs at the ball, so it's basically always about the process, and 72 holes is a pretty decent sample size to shoot at. Like football, if it was Rory v Tiger over 72 then it would be hard to beat the market, and Rory v Tiger over 18 would depend too much on randomness. The joy of golf is that in most cases it's a 150 horse race rather than a 2 horse race, and therein lies the magic.

[Baz]

Dublin Racing Festival Digital Racecard 6.2.21.pdf (https://mega.nz/file/aU9FzQSC#1HIlVKyuwUuAzz-gXIC3b33v1P2jzKhF_gkcrXx_4_0)

[Kikó]

Only Rahm left in the phoenix but not doing great.


A lot better in the Saudi with only Hall falling so far at the cut.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think DJ will stroll Saudi so probably playing for places.

[Kikó]

Finau is within touching distance at least for tomorrow.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Finau always seems to be in touching distance of a win and then chokes (not too badly mind) on Sunday.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Finau is like the opposite of the man for the big occasion. He's in decent nick though so hoping some combo of he, Rose and the michelin man can place up and drag something from the week. There are quite a few mugs in and around the top ten at the moment. David Horsey taking it to DJ etc is like, I don't know, the aggressive guy from your local pub getting in the ring with Tyson.

[niko_cee]

Big Tony on the charge.

'Rosey' (term use authorised by Butch Harmon) in the hunt for a place as well.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is my first time with Finau up and in contention Sunday, should be a wild ride.

Taking money off Justin Rose feels immoral, I might donate any winnings to his sponsors Morgan Stanley.

[niko_cee]

Presumably, depending on how this all pans out, Tony Bloom (James) will be looking to buy the computer forthwith. Rinse them Jimmy, rinse them for all they have.

[Kikó]

Always been a big fan of Tony Finau.

[Kikó]

Really fucked up the staking on this bet so actually, come on Justin.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I had 1pt on each and 2 on Bryson (I don't post the staking plan because it's people's decision what they do, probably different if you're putting 50p on or a fiver or £100). If they both place (which they now should/will) then it'll be a profit on the tournament but probably not on the week unless Rahmbo pulls something out.

[Kikó]

I managed to put less on finau than rose (really irrelevant now) and made Tony the same as your outside shots. Oh well. Good tips anyway.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Never change, Tony. Sniffs the lead and his arse completely goes on 16 and 17.

[Baz]

Decent shouts yet again. Cheers Jim.

My Bet 365 balance is looking pretty mega lately. £508.88 at the moment, with a couple of horses running later.

Uisce Beatha 16:10
Grand Morning 15:55

Both EW

[Waffdon]

Andy Dufrense to win without favourite

3rd. Shite

[Baz]

Andy Dufrense to win without favourite

3rd. ShiteMonkfish is incredible.

[Waffdon]

Not quite as good as Honeysuckle ��

[Baz]

Will be interesting to see this Bezos horse run tonight (21:03 Santa Anita) cos I’ve fallen victim to the hype and backed him 5pts EW for the Kentucky Derby. :eyemouth:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Pebble Beach

No European tournament for a few weeks now so just the US event per week in February. This run begins with a bit of a silly tournament and not the best use of one of golf's greatest venues, but this year it should be better as the Ams are not there and so you don't have the six hour rounds or having to endure Bill Murray doing the same unfunny shtick he does in all of these things. On to the actual tournament and the field is surprisingly weak this time around as many of the top boys take a breather before the run of quality tournaments coming up. Not so for Dustin Johnson who travels over 13,000 miles from his blood-soaked win in Saudi to play here. We are on him this week even at the skinny odds offered - as with Casey the other week, I'm taking the 'Air Miles Margin'. Cam Tringale and Wyndham Clark have been backed in recent weeks with no joy but come up again here and I'm willing to run the gauntlet with them once more.

D.Johnson 7/2
Day 25/1
Tringale 50/1
W.Clark 66/1
Rodgers 150/1

All e/w.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Scratch above, there has been a whole tranche of withdrawals including DJ and Clark. I'll go again later when the new field is confirmed.

Word seems to be it's because it's forecast to be a bit cold, which just about sums up American golfers.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Pebble Beach Take 2

Cantlay 7/1
Day 18/1
Tringale 33/1
Rodgers 125/1
Schenk 150/1
McCarthy 150/1
Ventura 175/1

Haven't put 7 up in a long time, it's what happens in a star-free market. Spread those stakes. Cantlay is a bit of a cowardly pick but the computer likes him sans DJ, so there we are.

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.com/1tPP5kM_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Kevin Na 175/1 for the Masters? :saywhat:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Would think that is about right. He isn't a great fit for Augusta. Does his work on the accuracy courses.

[Lofty]

Cheers for the previous picks Jim, and this week's.

[Manc]

Thoughts on SiWoo Kim? Jimmy Floyd

[Jimmy Floyd]

For what, the AT&T?

Has a reasonable shot vs this field, I would want about 35-40 to back him, think he was less than that when I ran my numbers.

[niko_cee]

Nice start for Cantlay and Tringale.

Had a few sneaky sidebets outwith the computer on Donald and KJ Choi as they were both 500/1 and I was feeling sporty.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Nice start for Cantlay and Tringale.
You've jinxed them both for round 2.

Never post how well a golfer is doing before the start of day 3.

[niko_cee]

lol

Neither round was particularly disastrous.

I see Dufner's going well (well, well for 500/1) - he was on my long shot hit list of people I had heard of as well. Didn't go with him though, so apologies when he wins.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The computer kept giving me Dufner for a spell in the summer/autumn, though it's gone off him of late. He is in a group of players I do keep an eye on because they need results to keep their card, which he hasn't been getting so far. The likes of Donald and Choi are just blown up vets really who can get starts forever in the silly exemption categories because they were once good.

[Waffdon]

When did the Lincoln game get changed to tomorrow at 6pm? Swear it was 3pm. Only waiting on Hull to win with Dundee United/Norwich/Burnley/Watford paid out and then realised the Lincoln game wasn’t postponed and just a different time

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was postponed to then, because of weather (I saw something about it on twitter).

[Jimmy Floyd]

Got a few runners here but fear it might be a loss to Daniel Berger (straight vibin) and his slightly pornographic trousers.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Lashley with a massive choke there.

His chimpout after :harold:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I could do with another four putts from him on the next tbh. Day and Boutros right on the cusp of place, part place or no place.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I need Tom Hoge to not birdie the last part 5 to get a sliver of a place for my other boys, and we return from commercials to see his caddie climbing up a tree before they are both escorted back to the tee box on a cart. Love golf.

EDIT: I made 8.84 back off the 10pts, so a fairly OK week depending on your staking, but a bit annoying only to get that given I had three scoring players.

[Lofty]

My stakes were basically covered so it was a free hit for me, cheers.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Genesis Invitational

We're now at the start of a long run of superb tournaments and I think that of all the non-majors, this one is possibly my favourite American event. Historically this was just the 'Los Angeles Open' and as always it's held at the brilliantly evocative Riviera Country Club in Santa Monica. With the old-timey clubhouse, the vegetated hillsides and an authentic Hollywood feel, this is a lovely, compact but challenging venue with some great holes. The field this week is also exceptionally strong, and after missing Pebble last week, most of the world's top ten are back for this.

The market is pretty tight this week, unlike last week when I felt it was a fraction sloppy. Our chosen top boy is Big Jon Rahm, who the computer absolutely loves but who hasn't really delivered when I've backed him in recent times. Let's hope that changes at this slightly heftier double-figure tariff. I'm also on 'young' Scottie Scheffler (who looks about 44), and some Aussie and Saffer longer shots. (late decision) we'll also stick with last week's placeman Cam 'Isosceles' Tringale for what seems like the 48th week in a row but whose solid golf is not being recognised by the oddsmakers just yet.

Rahm 11/1
Scheffler 40/1
Tringale 70/1
Smith 90/1
Frittelli 150/1
Schwartzel 225/1

All e/w.

[Baz]

https://i.imgur.com/Pnp1v3W_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Manc]

9 lengths off the winner.

[Lofty]

I put my £5 free bet on West Ham -2 and won £50. Smugly overconfident, I decided to put it all on Bayern and Chelsea when Bayern were 2-0 down at half time :moop:

[Baz]

Checked out all my antepost bets so far, after Waffdon mentioned bankers elsewhere.

Fantasio D’alene £5 EW @ 33/1 – Martin Pipe Hurdle
Lieutenant Rocco £5 EW @ 33/1 – Ultima Chase
Great White Shark £5 EW @ 16/1 – Coral Cup
Coo Star Sivola £7.50 EW @ 50/1 – Ultima Chase
The Storyteller £5.00 EW @ 22/1 – Stayers Hurdle
Hook Up £5 EW @ 20/1 - Mares Novice Hurdle
Paul’s Saga £10 win @ 16/1 – Stayers :sick:
Barbados Buck £5 EW @ 14/1 – Albert Bartlett
Houx Gris £5 EW @ 18/1 – Boodles Juvenile
Barbaos Buck & Houx Gris double £2.50 EW
Southfield Harvest £7.50 EW @ 20/1 – Pertemps
Appreciate It (Supreme) & Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) both to win £5 @ 6/1
Shishkin (Arkle) & Envoi Allen (Marsh) both to win £20 @ 7/2
Galvin £3.60 @ 4/1 – Win Any Race
Eskylane £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Holymacapony £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Monkfish £3.60 @ 13/8 – Win Any Race
Hook Up £3.60 @ 14/1 – Win Any Race
Locks Corner £40 EW @ 50/1 – Pertemps
Paisley Park £3.60 @ 5/2 – Stayers
Youmdor £3.60 @ 18/1 – Triumph Hurdle


Also
Bezos £50 EW @ 25/1 – Kentuck Derby :sick: now available at 40/1 :happycry:
Cloth Cap £12.50 EW @ 20/1 – Grand National
Kimberlite Candy £50 EW @ 25/1 – Grand National

:uhoh:

[Manc]

I see the GN weights are announced today. Hoping the handicapper doesn't anilihate Cloth Cap.

[Waffdon]

Checked out all my antepost bets so far, after Waffdon mentioned bankers elsewhere.

Fantasio D’alene £5 EW @ 33/1 – Martin Pipe Hurdle
Lieutenant Rocco £5 EW @ 33/1 – Ultima Chase
Great White Shark £5 EW @ 16/1 – Coral Cup
Coo Star Sivola £7.50 EW @ 50/1 – Ultima Chase
The Storyteller £5.00 EW @ 22/1 – Stayers Hurdle
Hook Up £5 EW @ 20/1 - Mares Novice Hurdle
Paul’s Saga £10 win @ 16/1 – Stayers :sick:
Barbados Buck £5 EW @ 14/1 – Albert Bartlett
Houx Gris £5 EW @ 18/1 – Boodles Juvenile
Barbaos Buck & Houx Gris double £2.50 EW
Southfield Harvest £7.50 EW @ 20/1 – Pertemps
Appreciate It (Supreme) & Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) both to win £5 @ 6/1
Shishkin (Arkle) & Envoi Allen (Marsh) both to win £20 @ 7/2
Galvin £3.60 @ 4/1 – Win Any Race
Eskylane £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Holymacapony £3.60 @ 16/1 – Win Any Race
Monkfish £3.60 @ 13/8 – Win Any Race
Hook Up £3.60 @ 14/1 – Win Any Race
Locks Corner £40 EW @ 50/1 – Pertemps
Paisley Park £3.60 @ 5/2 – Stayers
Youmdor £3.60 @ 18/1 – Triumph Hurdle


Also
Bezos £50 EW @ 25/1 – Kentuck Derby :sick: now available at 40/1 :happycry:
Cloth Cap £12.50 EW @ 20/1 – Grand National
Kimberlite Candy £50 EW @ 25/1 – Grand National

:uhoh:

Champion Hurdle - Honeysuckle @ 3.50
NH Chase - Coko Beach @ 15 ew
Cross Country Chase - Defi Des Carres @ 50 ew
Kim Muir - School Boy Hours @ 25 ew
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle - Hook Up @ 10
Pertemps - Come on Teddy @ 25 ew
Mares’ Chase - Elimay @ 3.75
Ballymore Novice Hurdles - Bravemansgames @ 5.5 NAP
Hunters Chase - Highway Jewel ew @ 16
County Hurdle - Eclair De Beaufeu @ 33
Ryan Air - Min @ 7
Supreme Novice Hurdle - Appreciate It @ 2.75 NB
Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill @ 5
Triumph Hurdle - Zanahiyr @ 3.75

Do have £15 Appreciate It, Shishkin, Honeysuckle, Envoi Allen and Al Boum Photo to win @ 154

[Manc]

I see the GN weights are announced today. Hoping the handicapper doesn't anilihate Cloth Cap.

10st 5lbs. He's going to absolutely fly round.

[Baz]

If anyone has £5 or less in their paddy power, might as well put a bet builder on for Liverpool cos it’s risk free: https://promos.paddypower.com/promotion?promoCode=CCRMLEPLIV1602P

Angelino 2 shots was 10/1 when I did mine. 🤨

[Jimmy Floyd]

Managed to get 5 of my 6 through the cut in LA but most of them a way back and there's the odd complicating factor of several big dogs having missed the cut and Sam Burns having a five shot lead. He showed definite arse-twitching tendencies when I was on him at Houston and he led at 36 and 54 (I think), hoping he hasn't learned anything and they continue.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I haven't been watching but Burns with a lovely choke-job in round 3 so far.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Today should be a great watch, conditions are absolute carnage and everyone's going backwards. Obviously DJ the man to beat but I wasn't expecting to have Cam Smith just 4 back from the lead here.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Rahmbo clawing his way up the leaderboard.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Doesn't look like Burns will choke today.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He's trying to fuck it up.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bloody Rahm always does this. Moops around for three days and pisses it on Sunday to finish 6th.

Just need Cam not to blow up.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Cam would do a lot better if he just shaved that thing he calls a moustache on his top lip.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Oh God, Finau is going to take this isn't he?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm rooting for Max, lovely guy. Finau sniffing the lead normally ends one way.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Finau's arsehole twitching on the 18th.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Looks like 18.45 returned from 10pts this week on my stakes, so a good week. Next week is an absolute sweepstakes.

+122.19% ROI in 2021 thus far. 3-10 from 53 each way selections.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Homa with the choke.

lol at Finau.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think we've just witnessed apex Finau. If I ever put him up please take me round the back and shoot me.

[Lofty]

Excellent work as always Jim.

[Kikó]

Yep - got to love the computer.

[Jimmy Floyd]

WGC Concession

This has been the WGC Mexico in recent years at the rather charming Chapultepec, but the Mexicans seem to have run out of money so at short notice it's been moved over to Florida and The Concession course. The Concession is an exclusive private club, the course designed by Jack Nicklaus and in a move that sums up both Nicklaus and golf itself, it takes its name - The Concession - from a famous act of sportsmanship by Nicklaus in 1969 when he conceded an opponent's putt in the Ryder Cup. What better way to celebrate such humility than by building a fucking great country club in the middle of Florida, starting memberships from $30,000 a year, paying the humble Nicklaus to design the course, and naming it after the time he gave someone a 4 foot putt. With capital letters. The Concession. Anyway.

It's hard to know who among the big dogs to go for in this event with the course a bit of an unknown quantity and the WGC limited field of 72 is always a topsy turvy affair, mixing players from all the world's main tours, with the US based stars dominating the book but with some quaint wild card names on the sheet as well. One of the 72 players - 'Trevor Simsby' - was news to me, which is a pretty rare thing. WGCs tend to be won by established form names, so there's no Long Odds Larry pick in this one. This is my first time backing Xander for a long time, and he has been extremely trophy-shy in the last 2 years, but he is so good so often that he has to win one at some point.

Schauffele 12/1
Niemann 33/1
English 45/1
Ancer 80/1

Puerto Rico Open

For a minor PGA Tour event attracting weak fields opposite the WGC, this is a notorious tournament. Scene of Tony Finau's only career win, it boasts the 'Puerto Rico curse' in which none of its winners have ever gone on to win a PGA Tour event in the mainland USA. Some proper numpties have fluked a win here in the past, notably back to back wins for someone called 'Michael Bradley' who has never been heard from since, and also a win for Martin Trainer a few years ago who is surely the worst golfer ever to win on the PGA Tour. The field this year is bolstered by a few relatively big name (but well underpriced) Europeans who didn't make the WGC, such as Poulter, Wallace and Pieters, looking to harvest some sweet Ryder Cup qualifying points and/or earn their American card with a win. These star-free markets are always a journey to say the least, but I've found six that look like strong value.

An 28/1
Pendrith 55/1
Burgoon 70/1
Hossler 80/1
Garnett 125/1
Baker 250/1

[Waffdon]

How are Atletico not favourites for tonight

[Jimmy Floyd]

Neutral venue and they're shite. 5-0 Chelsea.

[Waffdon]

You’ll be playing the same back 3 as you were 3 seasons ago who got battered by an average Barcelona team. I’d be wanting at least 7/2 to go anywhere near them.

[Manc]

Had a sneaky wager on Grillo for Puerto Rico @ 16/1.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Good luck - he wasn't far off for me but went with Ben An instead.

[Baz]

If anyone wants the 2021 Cheltenham Guide from Wetherbys, DM me your email.

I get it every year.

This one: https://bettrendsshop.co.uk/weatherbys-cheltenham-festival-betting-guide-2021/

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've just seen Brice Garnett and he looks nothing like I imagined.

In my mind he's a fat giant of a man who chews tobacco and loves the American 'Frat' life.

He's not even 6 foot ffs.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Most golfers look like they should do. Exhibit A: Ted Potter.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That is a strong head shape.

[Manc]

Four consectuive bogies on day one has cost me and Emiliano greatly.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Nothing from the WGC (they are often awkward bastard tournaments, god knows what the computer will make of the Matchplay in a few weeks) but a full place for Garnett in Puerto Rico brings me back 19.50 from 20pts, so not too bad. Also keeps the year's ROI above 100% from 63 golfers backed.

The next few tournaments stateside are great: Bay Hill next week (was epic last year just as lockdown drew in), The Players, Honda which is fun, and then the Matchplay which I am all over like a rash. Euro regular events are back next week too which are often a happy hunting ground for the computer.

[Waffdon]

If anyone wants the 2021 Cheltenham Guide from Wetherbys, DM me your email.

I get it every year.

This one: https://bettrendsshop.co.uk/weatherbys-cheltenham-festival-betting-guide-2021/

Avoiding Elliot runners like the plague now

[Jimmy Floyd]

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Just the one event this week (European Tour doesn't start again until next week) but it's a good one, Arnie's old event at Bay Hill. Tiger in his pomp was more or less unbeatable here (8 wins) but of late it's turned into a bit of a graveyard for American players, with forriners winning each of the last five editions, most recently Tyrrell Hatton's win last year in brutal conditions. I'm backing that to change this time around. It seems to be one the top yanks dislike for some reason and of their top boys, only perennial villains DeChambeau and Reed appear here, but McIlroy, Hatton and Hovland among others do set up a decent field overall. Unusually, I've decided to swerve all the top players as there isn't much value and they may be in a mode to tune up for the Players next week. Instead, a sextet of middle of the road contenders for your delectation.

Zalatoris 40/1
Conners 80/1
Gooch 80/1
W.Clark 100/1
Howell III 150/1
Champ 150/1

all e/w

[Manc]

All in on McIlroy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I hope you're right but he ain't got it just now.

The closest one was Bryson but he ain't got it either. Cue a McIlroy/Bryson playoff 12 strokes clear.

[Waffdon]

Avoiding Elliot runners like the plague now

Henry De Bromhead will be the happiest man in Ireland. Good on him

[Jimmy Floyd]

I hope you're right but he ain't got it just now.

The closest one was Bryson but he ain't got it either. Cue a McIlroy/Bryson playoff 12 strokes clear.

:baz:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

It will be fun seeing him choke over the next few days though.

[Baz]

Victory March
16:30 Dundalk tomorrow
14/1 EW

[Manc]

The computer strikes again.

[Waffdon]

10st 5lbs. He's going to absolutely fly round.

Did you see what he’s just done with 11st10 against decent horses? He’s going to absolutely piss it

[Manc]

Trevor Hemmings strikes again. There is no stopping Cloth Cap.

[Offshore Toon]

What's everyone's picks for UFC tonight?

[Waffdon]

Israel in round 2

[Manc]

Rory. :cool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bryson and Spieth choking in front of American fans here would be incredible.

[Baz]

How’s our lad Conners looking?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Tied third right now, 2 off the lead.

[Jimmy Floyd]

No way he's beating these players, place would be great.

I'm annoyed as Zalatoris was cruising towards a place and then dunked one on 17.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He needs to snap out of this little wobble he's having.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

If Corey can't manage it I'd love to see Westwood do it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That was a MASSIVE eagle.

[Jimmy Floyd]

17 and 18 absolute graveyards today. -10 might be a playoff.

[Baz]

Another top, top shout though. :thbup:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bit annoyed not to pick Bryson as I knew he was the choice from the short priced men, but I didn't trust his form at the 12/1 price.

Still 7pts profit and takes us back above +100% ROI on the year so far.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Thought Bryson was going to miss that parr putt.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Only in golf can the winner thank first his sponsors, then the spirit of Mister Palmer, and then a hospitalised cripple who sent him a text also invoking the spirit of Mister Palmer.

Glorious nonsense, and the nonsense only escalates with THE PLAYERS next week (their capitals, not mine).

[Jimmy Floyd]

Golf w/e 14 March

THE PLAYERS

The PGA Tour is a silly organisation in many respects. It is the richest and probably most powerful body in golf, but, thanks to its origins as basically a money grab by the top professionals fifty years ago (in a similar-ish way to darts's PDC), it does not actually run or have any control/influence over any of the four historic major championships. This has been a source of great pain to the PGA Tour and its marketing department over the years, and its response has been to try to elevate its own flagship event, THE PLAYERS, into the 'fifth major'. Simply writing the name of the tournament in all caps hasn't done the trick so in recent years their marketing job for THE PLAYERS has extended to somehow pretending it really is a major (it isn't), or even elevating its status above the real majors in their broadcasts and in-house statistical records. No one is fooled. Still, THE PLAYERS is indeed a great championship and Sawgrass is a very fine venue, boasting the famous 'Eye' island green 17th hole and many other fun ones on the way in. The field is as strong as they come and the winner earns a three-year exemption and a huge truck full of dollars. So why isn't THE PLAYERS a major? Well - and this is something that will always be lost on the PGA Tour - it's because this tournament is ultimately all about money, and the four real majors are about so much more.

(these odds from Bet365)

Rahm 16/1
Im 55/1
Conners 90/1
Todd 175/1
Harman 200/1
Grillo 200/1


Qatar Masters

A considerable tone shift from THE PLAYERS here as the European Tour returns with its first regular event in quite a while. It's also a return to golf that finishes earlier in the day, for those who like that pattern. Last year this was the last tournament before lockdown and it ended with a playoff that ran for about two hours. It's very hard to know what to expect here as a lot of the players have been off for weeks or months, which would normally not favour the computer, which relies on reversion to the mean (the mean, in this scenario, being all the market really has to go on). However, a bit of sprinkled form from the Middle East a few weeks back, and the UK golf ban giving many players fewer opportunities to 'find something' away from prying eyes, should give us a fighting chance. I would expect a couple of real long shots to get into the mix.

Otaegui 66/1
Janewattananond 100/1
Veerman 100/1
Migliozzi 110/1
van Driel 300/1
Tree 500/1

all e/w

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I thought we might be on Jazz soon after his great day 2 & 3.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Jazz is mental at 100/1. Rahm feels like a bit of a 'fool me 83 times, shame on me' situation, but he's gone outside Dustin, Rory (?!) and Billy Beefcake now, whereas I've got him as #1 fav, so back to the well we go.

[niko_cee]

I reckon Betfair may have got wise to THE COMPUTER (give it its due) as they consistently price under what you post up now (whereas before they were more often than not better).

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair are offering 10 places as opposed to 8 though.

[niko_cee]

Ah, fair enough.

[Jimmy Floyd]

As Mahow says, partly depends on how many places they're paying out for. I tend to use Coral which pays at 7 places, but this week they've gone to 8 places and their odds are so shite that I had to change to Bet365 (also 8). I see Betfair are doing 10 places this week so that probably explains that.

They've shown no signs of getting wise to it yet (I would be able to tell if they were). You do get tighter markets with fewer inefficiencies, which tend to be the likes of the WGCs and the Masters with the more selective entry criteria. I am working on a model for the WGC Matchplay in a couple of weeks but we'll see if it works. Ryder Cup, christ knows. Lump on America, crack open a beer and enjoy the losses.

The most likely explanation for the computer's success remains that it's a lucky run, or else much cleverer people than me would have been on it years ago. But then sometimes you can be too clever.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair also usually offer better odds for the American events. They're a little stingy with the European.