The Betting Thread

[Manc]

The joys of unemployment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lad, I swear there's a golf thread, don't pollute me like this.

You start a new thread for your mug accas on Everpool.

[niko_cee]

Is it just me, Jimmy and Mahow on this train? Big money on the line. :drool:

Hopefully Burns can pull away a bit to comfortably place too.

I'm also on, what I would give for a Whistling Straight rule infraction for DJ right about now.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I could live with losing to DJ as he's a bit of an alien, but if Hideki takes this I might cry.

At least should have the each way part in now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That is a glorious approach shot.

If Hideki and DJ could fuck off that would be nice.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A shame he missed the eagle putt by a bit but DJ missing that birdie helps.

[Manc]

Has anyone put double figures on this lad? Scenes if so.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I did £2 E/W on all of them.

[Offshore Toon]

£1 e/w plus 20p doubles across the two tournaments.

[Baz]

Potential Returns:
£41.70

[niko_cee]

Has anyone put double figures on this lad? Scenes if so.

What you're really asking here is does anyone need serious professional help.

I've got doubt figures (pence, 50 e/w) on our man Carlos at 150/1.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm on for £304 if he does it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Closes it out in style too.

Jimmy :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

First Mexican winner for 42 years, on the weekend Trump got kicked out of office. It was written in the stars.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://i.imgur.com/ZlfrXh4.png

:drool:

[Manc]

Get the Twitter account created, Jim. Subscription service should see you part time within the year.

[Offshore Toon]

God bless you, Jimmy. Cheers.

[Baz]

What you're really asking here is does anyone need serious professional help.

I mean, I had 500 on the Vietnam game. :baz:

Nice one Jimmy. Really good tips. Burns got me £22.24 and Ortiz £41.70, off £2.78 on each. Plus Detry got me £6.72 before.

Gz Mahow.

[Manc]

I mean, I had 500 on the Vietnam game. :baz:

Fucking lunatic.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I had £3.50 each way so it's been a good evening. I think Carlos is my second longest winner ever (Ashun Wu 300/1 at the China Open will never be beaten).

[Baz]

Fucking lunatic.Free £150.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Masters

The market loves length. Now, I can see why it loves length. We're all thinking the course will be softer than usual and this in theory should favour length. The market certainly thinks so. Bryson (the longest driver in golf) is favourite and all the way down the board longer hitters are shorter than they might be.

At Winged Foot the market loved accuracy and the market was wrong. Bryson prevailed easily because with narrow fairways and thick rough, his distance advantage was multiplied by how much easier his short approach shots from the rough were compared to everyone else's long shots (he also putted really well). This created a statistical mask to the quality of his approach play which won't exist at Augusta, where there isn't really any rough. Plus, if the course really is on the softer side, the greens will be that much more receptive to the longer irons from further back (on firmer greens, it is far easier to hold wedges). At Winged Foot I was seduced by the market's 'wisdom' and not much happened for my picks, but here I've decided to start from a position of believing that the market will be wrong again, and the length advantage here will be no more than it is anywhere else.

As such my philosophy has been to side with ball-striking and method rather than bombing power. My top pick player is long too (which will help) but my longer priced players are the shorter-hitting grinders who I believe the market has over-reacted against.

These odds are with my substandard bookie for 10 places. You should be able to find better elsewhere.

Each way, to win
Jon Rahm, 9/1. This is an obvious pick but an enthusiastic one when you think Bryson is at 15/2, and DJ has now also snuck inside him. Rahm ticks all four of my boxes and then some. He has played three Masters and twice made the top ten. His short game is for my money the best in the world, and his form this year has been exceptional, bouncing back and forth at world numbers one and two. For my money Rahm, and not DeChambeau, should be favourite. Spanish players have won a total of eight majors, and five of them have been Masters - two for Seve, two for Olazabal, and one for Garcia. Rahm is in that tradition and I fancy him rotten to break his Major duck this week. As well as taking him E/W I will also have a chunk on him outright on the exchange.

Tyrrell Hatton, 25/1. Hatton is a great golfer to watch, effing and jeffing his way around the course and flicking the bird at inanimate objects. He has also had a breakthrough year this year, raising his level to that of the elite. He is a complete golfer, with no real weakness in his game, with a very hot last couple of months, and a breakthrough win at Bay Hill earlier in the year which will have raised his native confidence playing against world class fields in the US. His course form here is not stellar - three played, two cuts made, two lowly finishes - but he delivered a victory a few weeks ago at Wentworth, which is an English Augusta in so many ways.

Hideki Matsuyama, 25/1. This would be a heart pick if the computer wasn't telling me every week that this guy is due for a big one. Why not the biggest one of all? Hideki is probably in the top 5 ball strikers in the world, but he hasn't holed a putt since Nagasaki. This makes him a real white-knuckle rollercoaster of a golfer to back. I was going to eschew him at these odds before researching his course form and it turns out to be a lot better than I thought. He's made 7 of 8 cuts here, with two top tens, and was the low amateur back in 2011. I've backed him a few times this autumn and the returns have not been good. But why would I not want to be on Hideki when he becomes the first Japanese player to win a major? He's a labour of love.

Matthew Fitzpatrick, 50/1. Conventional wisdom has the big hitters eating this place alive, but Fitzpatrick is highly rated by the computer so I'm going to go in the opposite direction. The colder it is, the more someone like Matt Fitz will come into play. It was so in 2007 when Zach Johnson won and it could be so again. Fitz has been putting like God this year and only a few bizarre mistakes have stopped him from winning on either side of the pond. He is a wizard with the wedges and a very straight hitter who will plot his way around.

Kevin Kisner, 100/1. This is my only American selection for the win, and a player in a similar mould to Fitzpatrick. Kisner is my favourite southern battler. He's played here the last four years and made the cut each time. He isn't the longest but he is a great grinder and this price looks long to me with chumps like Fowler at half the tariff.


I also have some other side action on. Might find another couple before Thursday if any more markets go up.

Dual forecast: Jon Rahm / Xander Schauffele 80/1
Top 10 finish: Tyler Duncan 25/1
Top 20 finish: Tyler Duncan 8/1
Will there be a playoff? Yes 7/2

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've gone £5 E/W on each. And then £3-£7 on the side pieces.

I wouldn't mind a Hatton win, I've started to really like him over the last couple of months.

[Manc]

Phenomenal.

[Offshore Toon]

Great write up. I enjoyed watching on Sunday so will probably tune in again this weekend at some point.

[Kikó]

On the train.

[Mike]

On those!

[Manc]

I like the look of Hatton.

[Baz]

I’m on.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If Bryson wins it by ten I'll probably commit suicide, just fyi.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CBSxnnvDMxb/?utm_source=ig_embed

See how far you can make it in before spewing.

[Manc]

Sprinkling his PEDs on toast. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Few extras for pence from the silly markets

Top Korean: An 3/1
Top debutant: Van Rooyen 14/1
Top past champ: Reed 3/1
Top amateur: Augenstein 5/2
Top senior: Weir 14/1
Top Aussie: Smith 3/1

Top Englishman is a great market, but having backed Hatton and Fitz outright there's no way I can justify taking the oh so tempting Westwood 10/1 odds.

[Lofty]

All aboard!

[Manc]

Thoughts on Finau? Jimmy Floyd

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bottler.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thoughts on Finau? Jimmy Floyd

Has the tools for the job but don't trust his putting. Would want him 40/1 or so.

[Lofty]

My mate who is a tennis nonce is balls deep on this Forejtek kid to beat Gasquet today.

[Manc]

What time does the Masters tee off?

[Jimmy Floyd]

First man tees off 12 noon British time tomorrow.

[Manc]

My mate who is a tennis nonce is balls deep on this Forejtek kid to beat Gasquet today.

Lost the first set. If the tennis nonce is right I'm on for a ton.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've just lobbed (wahey) £10 on him.

[Manc]

Is Gasquet still on the white?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The nonce wants locking up.

[Manc]

Is Gasquet still on the white?

Confirmed.

[Lofty]

I should have been wary of him after he almost me talked out of a winning bet on the boxing last night, apologies gents.

[Manc]

£200 return if Hatton wins, £100 for Rahm. In the computer we trust.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1326910247768911872

I'm sure if The Computer knew Sandy would be rocking braces it would have been all over him.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bryson is having a meltdown :drool:

He's exploring the 13th hole very well :harold:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Best take it to the Masters thread (wherever it is) so as not to antagonise Taz, but: lol.

[Boydy]

How's Rahmbo doing?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Started like a twat, just got a birdie back to +1 but early days. Being drawn with that blubbery whale-clown can't help.

[Waffdon]

I put £2 ew on Hatton, Molinari, Speith, Fleetwood, Munoz and Fitzpatrick for the lols

[Manc]

Rahm. :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He's woken right up.

[Waffdon]

The scenes when Tiger does it again :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Tiger will shit himself over rounds 2 & 3.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hatton just got fucked hard by a dickhead green.

Looked like a beautiful shot with a chance to eagle and then it just rolled back into the water.

1327246049879224320

[Jimmy Floyd]

Tbf that's an established miss at 15, you can't be short (or long) of the right pin. Might have stuck up there yesterday in the sodden conditions.

This leaderboard is mental, pretty much every top player going well except McMuff who has checked out (he was a favourite of the big name tipsters this week for reasons that really do elude me).

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1327260576792383488

Null and void his bet as top debutant?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Probably not, as someone else will win it.

DJ is so short now. Sub 3/1. I'm not sure. I'm not sure you can stroll away with this like he does playoff events and WGCs. I might make a small investment in Bryson at the higher odds he now has.

[Manc]

Is Hatton finished?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cut I think will be -1 so anything in the 60s would get him through that, winning looks a long way away though.

[Manc]

Blacklisted.

[Don]

Anyone see what odds Belgium were pre-match? Mortgage-maker stuff if above evens.

Still time for Mason and Tammy to turn it around :happycry:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A shame that Augenstein and Mike Weir shat the bed on the final day otherwise it would have been a good weekend.

Augusta is a really wild ride.

[Baz]

Any of the golf ones still on?

[Lofty]

Rahm placed at the end.

Any Celeb betting Yevrah?

I'd fancy Vernon Kay to take the most stars in a trial as a dark horse, he used to play UK Gridiron after all.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Any of the golf ones still on?

Rahm placed, Cameron Smith was the Top Aussie and Patrick Reed was the Top Former Champion.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That was a bloody hard one to call. DJ was just too short at 8/1 or whatever he was. Rahm saved the day, he played utter toss for about 60% of it and still placed. Bit annoyed I didn't get Smith e/w given I did back him for top Aussie but then he wasn't in consideration for outright. The ones I got rid of from my longlist were Muñoz 100/1 (glad as that would have been a heartbreaker), Westwood, Spieth and Lowry, so I didn't toss anything big away. That said, I am pretty happy that my philosophy as outlined in the preview post was pretty sound, I just didn't get the right players.

The hard thing about Augusta is that it's usually quite easy to dismiss about two thirds of the field (much more so than for a normal tournament), but at the same time form tends to go out the window so among those who are left it's a bit of a sweepstakes. Whichever geniuses were on Frittelli and CT Pan I would have liked to have seen their workings. CT Pan I would have given next to zero chance. Sungjae I have been on many times, including last week, but I thought his putting was too shit for Augusta. Then the other place players were just the obvious candidates at unattractive short odds.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Back to the happy place of shite tournaments. Only two left on the PGA this year but several on the Euro.

RSM

English 25/1
Dahmen 66/1
Streelman 90/1
Stuard 150/1
V.Taylor 200/1

Joburg

Bezuidenhout 12/1
Rozner 35/1
Brown 60/1
Lawrence 150/1
Ferguson 175/1

All E/W. Bez is a particular fancy even at that skinny price. He has to fly all the way from Augusta to Johannesburg to tee it up for this dogshit B-tier Euro event. He's the only player doing so, and let's just say it's not the sort of trip you'd make if you didn't have a carrot for doing so.

[Lofty]

50p each way on each for a bit of interest, let's rerail this train.

[Pleb]

Any Celeb betting Yevrah?

I'd fancy Vernon Kay to take the most stars in a trial as a dark horse, he used to play UK Gridiron after all.
Jordan North, Vernon Kay, Mo Farah and Shane Ritchie at the moment.

[Pleb]

Fuck me Russell Watson is on the outright list at 25/1.

Hopefully he gets in.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I went through my record last night (since August when I began using the computer). I've backed 79 golfers, with 3 winners, 11 places and 65 losers, for an overall return of 2.12 (if total stakes are 1). I would say that is an unusually good run, so don't expect anything else now until hell freezes over.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Thinks in America are going far too well right now.

English and Taylor (who I got at 301) are right up there and Dahmen & Stuard who looked like they'd miss the cut yesterday are marching up the leaderboard.

[Jimmy Floyd]

26 under between the five of them yesterday, and currently 8 over today. Absolute bunch of Gone With The Wind cunts at the top of the leaderboard, if Kisner wins I will have to firebomb his massive plantation house.

[AyDee]

6 months of trying to do betting full-time alongside work but gonna have to bin it. Definitely getting harder each year.

-james- how's your year been?

[-james-]

My worst yet, but I pretty much took March to August off. Had a couple of decent months since getting back into it but it is definitely getting tougher. I don't think the market is that much sharper, the main problem is getting on bets. Pre game limits and sing/sbo voids are worse than ever so I'm relying on bookie accounts, in-play situationals and the few leagues I feel confident I can beat kick off prices on.

The other thing is that fixtures are really terrible at the moment. Really missing things like minor international tournaments.

[-james-]

I should add though that I'm definitely fed up of it now.

[Baz]

I'm thinking of going all in after Christmas. I used to be in a private racing group so will join that again, start with a 100 point bank and hopefully turn some decent profit.

John Oster's in it. :D

[AyDee]

That doesn't sound all bad, which is good. But sounds like most people are having a similar year then. Agree with the main issues being that it's harder to get on bets now - have you been using Drin? Their Skype broker has been good but has been out of action for weeks, which is the tip of the iceberg really. Unclear why but could be because being forced out of china / new regulations or something. Some are expecting that brokers will soon only take the most mainstream leagues pre-game (and still only on Matchday).

So yeah, getting on can be a pain. I've similarly been trying to make most of bookie accounts / shops.

My year was going really well up to end of August but lost about 75% of profit since then and mostly been constant losses. Still managing decent odds beat against asia closing line but variance refusing to change.

Will miss it though. ☹️

[-james-]

I think Sing have just realised they can do whatever they want in pre-game and brokers can no longer afford to absorb the voids. Live is better because there is apparently far more liquidity from locals. Maybe it's a covid thing, dunno, surely their turnover has gone to shit now with everyone avoiding them.

[Manc]

Can a professional gambler afford to have a bad year?

[Kikó]

Depends if the convergence is diverging.

[-james-]

I'm still up for the year. I can't imagine the depression that would be involved with a losing year.

[Manc]

Leeds & Leicester @ 23/2. Great value.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Harris English is trying to win this.

[Don]

I still have access to one of the big Asian agents who I placed Benham's bets with. If that sounds like it may be of value to you mandem give me a PM and I'll see if he's about and we can negotiate my cut.

[Jimmy Floyd]

English with a part place salvaging things somewhat. Streb winning is an absolute classic golf happening- hasn't done anything at all for almost five years, and there he is, bringing it home with balls of steel at about 4 billion to one. The three people in the world who backed him antepost will be doing lines off the ceiling tonight.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Only one tournament this week - Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek

Bezuidenhout 16/1
Jordan 35/1
Sterne 60/1
Pavon 100/1
Lawrence 200/1
Jerling 1000/1 (pennies on this, if you can find a top 20 market or something then do that instead)

The computer seems to be giving me a Frenchman a week at the moment, presumably on the wind up.

[Manc]

Thoughts on Zander Lombard?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I imagine the tipsters will all have him (haven't looked at them yet) due to course form and an ok week last week, but the computer isn't too impressed and wants 100/1 which is not available as far as I can see.

For a bit of context, Brandon Stone (2nd favourite with the bookies behind Bob Mac, past winner on this course, great form last week) is rated a miserable 13th in the computer's estimations. It really takes no prisoners.

[Manc]

Fascinating stuff. You should run a blog of some kind.

[Baz]

Do you really have some kind of computer system spitting these out, or is that just what you're calling your opinion for lols?

[Jimmy Floyd]

lol, when I used to use my opinion I'd win half as often if that. The computer reigns supreme.

EDIT: There is a bit of judgement involved in making the actual selections, but the base data I use basically tells me the 15% of players in a tournament that are OK or good value, and the 85% where the bookies are having you over. Obviously the players where the bookies are having you over often (usually, in fact) win, but that doesn't mean they were good value bets.

You get tournaments like the one we've just had at the RSM where you don't get much return - in this case, just a T6 for Harris English - but all five players made the cut and all tore up the course at various points, so you end the week pretty satisfied that the theory behind it was good.

[Lofty]

I have faith in the computer.

[John Arne]

Real Madrid 3.2 tonight.... that seems a little big.

[Manc]

Veerman @ 33/1
Fichardt @ 40/1

£100 return if either comes in.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

What a nonce going against The Computer.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The computer doesn't hate those two, just not quite stand out enough to make the list. Veerman's been on a hot run but somewhat fear we might just be on the wrong side of it, but good luck.

It's quite astounding how much it hates Brandon Stone, who is getting tipped everywhere and now in to favourite in some quarters. Let's see who's closer.

[-james-]

Biden 1.08

https://toppng.com/uploads/preview/youthinkwrong-thinking-face-emoji-meme-11562990040intvzbbv3v.png

[-james-]

It's one of the most nonsensical things I've ever seen. 1 billion matched on the market and genuinely a 1.00 shot going by Betfair's settlement rules.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Must be people getting their dollar out, surely?

[Baz]

So I shouldn’t bet £5k on it?

[-james-]

You should, it's the freest money you'll ever see. The only question mark is when you will receive your free money.

People greening up made sense up to a point, but he was 1.02 last night before about 40 million quid got matched to push it out to 1.08. Apparently there was some lol press conference about votes getting voided but it makes not a shred of difference.

[Baz]

I’ll leave it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bez :cool:

[Manc]

The Computer strikes again.

[niko_cee]

Nice one.

Some epic bottle job final rounds in there by the looks of things.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Crocker's 18th hole was a classic. One behind standing on the tee, hits a drive left, bounces off the roof of a moving buggy into the out of bounds. Then playing his 4th went long into the back water and ended up with an 8. Even then he still finished tied for second thanks to everyone else mulching it as well.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Three golf events this week (unusually) with selections below. Computer RoI is now up to +90.54% over the 95 selections since I began using this method (4 winners, 12 places, 79 losers).

Mayakoba
Henley 22/1
Reavie 50/1
Streelman 70/1
Hubbard 100/1
Duncan 125/1

Golf in Dubai (nb Weds start)
Pieters 16/1
Langasque 40/1
Smith 45/1
Hebert 70/1
Karlberg 175/1
Moller 200/1

There is also the South African Open but my dogshit bookmaker not offering odds yet, I may return later in the week for that.

[-james-]

Can't be long before your dogshit bookmaker stops accepting your business.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Reavie (@91) and Hubbard (@201) on Betfair :eyemouth:

They also have the South African odds and Bez has been hammered, he's only at 8's there. RIP sweet prince.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Can't be long before your dogshit bookmaker stops accepting your business.

I have wondered that but I'm not sure tenners each way winning every six weeks are going to bankrupt him, tbh.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Reavie (@91) and Hubbard (@201) on Betfair :eyemouth:

They also have the South African odds and Bez has been hammered, he's only at 8's there. RIP sweet prince.

Bez doesn't need to win anymore (got his Masters place sorted which is why I was huge on him), will be avoiding. Also Betfair odds are higher because they are outright and not each way 7 places - unless that's sportsbook prices you're talking about in which case they're miles off. The overround is a joke on some. Valimaki in the Dubai event I have around 110/1 and he's being priced up at 28s.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

They are sportsbook prices.

Valimaki seems to always be tipped by the Betfair tipster Matt Cooper.

https://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-bets/each-way-betting/golf-in-dubai-championship-each-way-tips-sure-fire-sami-301120-721.html

He's gone for him again, however he's -37 points this season so he'll probably be asking for access to The Computer soon.

[Lofty]

Mon the digital don.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I know it's golf and anyone could win, but I would seriously question his methods if he judges Valimaki to be a back at 25/1.

The key to reading tipsters is that if they have a good methodology (which I think I have, at the moment, before it either gets compromised or turns out to be a run of superb luck) they aren't going to give it to you, so they will dress their reasoning up in a load of spiel about grass types, wind patterns and course designers etc. That stuff is valid but is all so marginal, it's 80% about who is going to be best at hitting the golf shots that the course demands. The rest is down to putting luck, how the golfer feels when he wakes up in the morning, whether his ball lands behind a tree or just to the side, etc.

[Manc]

Jordan @ 33/1
Stone @ 16/1
Bland @ 33/1

I'd back Thomas for the Mayakoba, but 6/1 is sickening.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thomas 6/1 is nonsense. I'm not sure why he's even playing there.

South Africa I'm on:
Schwab 16/1
Schaper 28/1 (serious talent albeit currently looks in need of a good bedtime story)
Farr 110/1
One final roll on Lawrence 150/1

[Lofty]

Langasque pulled out?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Tested positive for Covid so will be a non-runner.

Take Lorenzo-Vera if you want a similarly priced (and similarly French) replacement, computer a huge fan of his work, and I'm a huge fan of his look.

[John Arne]

VBA Finals.

Saigon Heat v Thanh Long Warriors.

TLW at 4... Which is way too big. Worth a cheeky punt. Nothing dodgy, though.

[Don]

Marcelo's titans are above 5/1 up against Fat Frank's Brexit boys. Let me see you try and keep a clean sheet there, lad. They haven't fucking lost since us in September so we have the classic roulette strategy of forecasting a red after 15 blacks favouring us too, as if it wasn't clear to the astute footballing mind.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I would go the other way, towards an enormous Chelsea win. I've watched a lot of both teams and they are just going to leave far too much space for us. They might score two but we'll score seven.

The time to oppose us will be at Goodison when DCL bullies Thiago Silva to death.

[Don]

You've struggled against expansive sides, namely cause your manager can't organise a defence beside putting bodies behind the ball. You can't do that against Leeds. And 2 Phillips-less games aside, they've been superior to everyone they've faced, they are not a 5/1 shot.

[Waffdon]

Werner is about to have half the pitch to run into against Leeds. Hat trick for him is a better price than Leeds 5/1

[Don]

That's the only worry. I'm hoping be gets rested :baz:

[Manc]

It'll all come down to Frank's selection.

[Waffdon]

He’ll go full strength as the game midweek against the Russians is meaningless as no one in that group can change place. Havertz will run circles round the lonely Phillips if he starts.

[Don]

Only thing that Jew can run circles round is a 16-wheeler.

[Lofty]

I need Fat Frank to don old man Bielsa senseless as it is my pick in the final of my Last Man Standing for £200. Other guy picked Leicester so no doubt Chelsea shit the bed and Leicester suddenly turn their form around.

[Baz]

Got absolutely screwed by a horse that had had “a whisper from the yard” that was brought down at the first. :mad: 28/1

[Waffdon]

Win it back on an Allmankind/Altior/Native River treble

[Baz]

Nah gonna try and hold out until 27th December 14:55 (unless I get more info in-between) cos I’ll be going in big time on Locks Corner.

[Offshore Toon]

Hoping for another successful weekend of boredom betting.

Gone for a Calvin-Lewin hat-trick (void if not starting) and doubles across Everton and West Ham wins and with Asians -1.5. May lump on Everton depending on how they start as 1.9 seems generous.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Imagine backing three different Frenchmen for a golf tournament pre-off and a fourth one fucking wins.

MLV with the place though at 50/1.

[SvN]

Hoping for another successful weekend of boredom betting.

Gone for a Calvin-Lewin hat-trick (void if not starting) and doubles across Everton and West Ham wins and with Asians -1.5. May lump on Everton depending on how they start as 1.9 seems generous.

DCL is my FPL captain, so I'll be cheering you on with that one.

[Lofty]

Imagine backing three different Frenchmen for a golf tournament pre-off and a fourth one fucking wins.

MLV with the place though at 50/1.

Thankfully I took your advice:


Tested positive for Covid so will be a non-runner.

Take Lorenzo-Vera if you want a similarly priced (and similarly French) replacement, computer a huge fan of his work, and I'm a huge fan of his look.

So cheers for that.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

MLV :cool:

It's nice to see that Lawrence shat the bed on day 1, recovered well on day 2 to make the cut before shitting over the ceiling and walls on day 3.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is a bit of an annoying one, young player who ticks all the boxes to be in the top group of South African players (at least in these kind of events) but has probably shat the bed this month as a lot of them do when the European Tour comes to town and the stakes are so much higher.

Suspect that could be it for the weekend, Schwab has gone into total reverse ferret and over in Mexico my main man missed the cut (as did Rickie Fowler, who is now in serious jeopardy of not making the Masters and his career going into Spieth mode).

[Manc]

Win it back on an Allmankind/Altior/Native River treble

Whoever is in charge of the racecourse at Aintree wants shooting. The Many Clouds Chase was effectively a flat sprint.

[Waffdon]

Whoever is in charge of the racecourse at Aintree wants shooting. The Many Clouds Chase was effectively a flat sprint.

The long run fucked it for Native River. Went from 4/9 in play to 100/1 without a fence in sight

[Manc]

West Ham, Leeds & Montpellier @100/1.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Last one of the year.

DP World Tour Championship

Hovland 14/1
Im 18/1
Wiesberger 25/1
Poulter 40/1
Rai 60/1

Don't think there's much value down the field - this is a top heavy event, my bookie's only paying 5 places with the limited field, and the big dogs usually win. Hovland has a long trip to make and has just won but he's probably the class player in the field on current form - Morikawa's world ranking is a touch inflated as he has dropped off since the summer, and to my knowledge he has never played outside the United States. Im is also a Euro tour first timer but I don't get the impression he gives a fuck where he is as long as there's a golf course and a hotel room.

If you want someone longer, Hansen 70/1 and Janewattananond would be of mild interest.

On a side note, I think this is the first time in my long, long history of golf betting that I have ever backed Ian Poulter.

[Pleb]

You fucking madman.

Love seeing your tips.

[Manc]

What of Hatton/Fitzpatrick?

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you can find 12/1 for Hatton that would be a good price. Fitzpatrick I'd want 18/1.

[-james-]

An odds-on accumulator of stuff I think is value this weekend. 8/1ish.

https://i.imgur.com/bWENjbu.png

[Waffdon]

Queens Park at evens is ridiculous value on its own

[-james-]

It really is, should go off 4/6 or something.

[Don]

Those 'system bet' days were the one. Grinding out 40 sub-1.1s for our riches :drool:

I'll get on blind without looking into it for the ride.

[Baz]

Paddy Power are doing a free £5 bet on the Manchester derby for anyone who’s previously deposited with them.

[SvN]

Those 'system bet' days were the one. Grinding out 40 sub-1.1s for our riches :drool:

I'll get on blind without looking into it for the ride.

The glory days. I won about £6k laying correct scores circa 2009. I genuinely considered doing it full time after uni.

[Don]

I was going to say name a more iconic duo than SvN and a system bet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Correct scores are the most beautiful of all football bets. The mechanics of the odds movement on them during a game must form into one of those fractal images that mathematicians wank off to.

[-james-]

If you add up the probabilities on a Premier League correct score market, figure out what gets creamed off the top and then look up Denise Coates' net worth, everything starts to make sense.

[Offshore Toon]

I'm on the James train.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you add up the probabilities on a Premier League correct score market, figure out what gets creamed off the top and then look up Denise Coates' net worth, everything starts to make sense.

The sportsbook markets which go up to 7-2 etc are pretty much fraud. The betfair one which levels off at 'any other' for a team getting 4+ goals is a beauty though.

[Don]

An odds-on accumulator of stuff I think is value this weekend. 8/1ish.

https://i.imgur.com/bWENjbu.png

I couldn't get ES Auckland so I upgraded Queen's Park to home win to make it worth the ride. Let's have the theead kept updated with progress as it looks a ballache to follow.

On Leeds to make back the stake above. Not confident but why tf would you not want added reason to cheer those dons.

[Baz]

Bolivar’s basically in.

[Baz]

finished 5-0

More of that, please.

Also, possibly an omen, I did the 5 fold on the 7 picks, so I'm deffo winning. Hope all 7 come in, obviously.

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://www.europeantour.com/european-tour/dp-world-tour-championship-dubai-2020/leaderboard?round=4

Absolutely quality leaderboard for tomorrow's final golf of the year. Obviously would like Hovland to win having tipped him, but if any of the others manage to beat Fat Pat it would be class. Might in-play the fuck out of it if I wake up early enough.

[Baz]

Coleraine leaving it late with a 90+3 winner to make it 2-1 but that’s 4 out of 7 in. :drool:

Crusaders was another 5-0.
Queens Park drew 3-3 so the double chance safety net was needed.

[-james-]

Feels like the hard part is still to come with Blooming having drifted a bastard, but I think we're on a 1 in 3 shot from here.

[Waffdon]

Man Utd not to lose at 2.20 not a bit overpriced?

[-james-]

Feels pretty lotto pre-game but I'd be looking to be on City in play if anything.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm on goals - United will surely play for counter attacks and City will surely break them down.

[Waffdon]

Im probably basing it on regency bias between the two. I’ve fancied City every time but I’m sure Ole is unbeaten in the league against them and he always wins after he gets hounded out a bit

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm on goals - United will surely play for counter attacks and City will surely break them down.

This theory rested on City being something other than a completely disjointed mess.

[Lofty]

Auckland and Blooming :moop:

[Don]

What a fucking car crash. Don't fucking waste my time with system accies spread across 3 days of twilight hours that I can't even ride ever again.

[Baz]

Yours was dead when you added Leeds. :cab:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He didn't add Leeds, he was on them as a single.

[Don]

What Mahow said. Mine died with getting greedy with Queen's Park first.

[Manc]

Fitzpatrick doing me a solid.

[Manc]

Corinthians @ 3/1. Yes please.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Fitzpatrick doing me a solid.

Well done, he was mighty today.

[Manc]

Are we going to get a review of The Computer in 2020?

[Manc]

Corinthians @ 3/1. Yes please.

Happily cashed out at HT.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Are we going to get a review of The Computer in 2020?

We will tomorrow if I remember. Mediocre-ish last couple of weeks although Hovland placing today was OK.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Computer end of year stats:

115 golfers backed
97 lost
14 placed (longest odds: Reitan 250/1)
4 winners (longest odds: Ortiz 125/1)
192.4pts staked
Final tally: +164.2pts (ROI +85.34%)

By tour
PGA tour: 43 golfers backed, 2 winners 2 places, 61pts staked, final tally +20pts (ROI +132.8%)
Euro tour: 61 golfers backed, 2 winners 10 places, 99.4pts staked, final tally +83.6pts (ROI +84.1%)
Majors: 11 golfers backed, 2 places, 32pts staked, final tally -0.4pts (ROI -1.2%)

I will start the clock again for 2021, will be interesting to see if it stays even remotely close to those levels or if this was just a lucky run.

[Manc]

85.34% is truly insane. Get a blog going.

[Baz]

Mind if I steal all your picks and use them to monetise a telegram group?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The Ortiz win and Reitan place :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mind if I steal all your picks and use them to monetise a telegram group?

Stuff like that doesn't work with golf as most punters don't have the patience to absorb 97 losers out of 115.

[Don]

https://i.ibb.co/6gswShz/Screenshot-20201214-182336-Chrome.jpg

What a selection. All seem free money so some combo of them will pay big.

[Kikó]

Stuff like that doesn't work with golf as most punters don't have the patience to absorb 97 losers out of 115.

That's a polite way to say fuck off.

[Waffdon]

https://i.ibb.co/6gswShz/Screenshot-20201214-182336-Chrome.jpg

What a selection. All seem free money so some combo of them will pay big.

This Brighton and Leeds semi you have is cute. Fulham and Newcastle double for sure

[niko_cee]

Last time Brighton played Fulham at 'The Cottage' they were 2-0 up at half time and somehow contrived to lose 4-2, so I wouldn't have that one marked in as a win, but then it'll probably come down to who gets the more ridiculous penalty awarded for or against them.

[-james-]

US Election market finally settled on Betfair. Biden available for 1.04 at the bell and never went below 1.02. Absolutely mental.

[-james-]

Over a billion pounds traded on the market post-election night. Betfair Christmas do is going to be a big one.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hopefully it becomes all the rage, I'm itching to trade a Euro 2004 market.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I didn't have it in me just in case.

£40 odd back from my bets on Biden and for him to win Georgia.

[-james-]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/400378864446489

The absolute funniest thing ever.

[SvN]

I completely forgot I had about £90 tied up in that market, so that was an unexpected bonus.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Had a bit on City -1 :moop:

[Don]

https://i.ibb.co/6gswShz/Screenshot-20201214-182336-Chrome.jpg

What a selection. All seem free money so some combo of them will pay big.

:happycry:

[Lofty]

The Wolves/Draw double though :drool:

[Don]

Today's BTTS accy on all the games at 20/1+ will recoup it alland then some.

[Lofty]

You think Arsenal will score?

[Don]

No tbf, that's just relying on law of averages.

[Lofty]

So is Arteta at this point.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm on Southampton today so expect Arsenal to find some form from nowhere.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

:moop:

[Don]

A train is hurtling towards us tomorrow with the Asian CL final kicking off at 12:00.

Iranian giants Persepolis up against Korean somethings Ulsan.

The former scraped their way to the final but are now a team decimated by suspensions and absences with no firepower to threaten (missing 3 best players, CF, AM and CB).

The Koreans (JohnA or Jimmy can further expand) are on fire, relentlessly scoring and smashing their way to the final, beating Iniesta and Vermaelen's Vissel Kobe in the semis. Their top scorer is none other than Junior Negao (yes, that very one) who averages about 6 goals a game.

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/955331522231439360/luZqCCyW.jpg

Just look at that and tell me you aren't gonna back him.

Last I looked a couple days ago Busan were at 2.3 on B365 and it's evens today. Expect them to KO at odds on but even though it's a final, get on the handicaps, the thrashing to nils, the whole lot. 12pm live on youtube. Merry Xmas.

[Baz]

Ulsan -1.0 3/1 £25

[Offshore Toon]

On over 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5. Mon.

[Don]

I've just read some preview that says Busan's coach starts big games conservatively but I wouldn't worry because the author looks like this:

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zh64cCe_TAs/XRFq5Vw_xzI/AAAAAAAAEEE/1STQw4hITdsVeGxnkY8cke8qCNH9Agx-QCK4BGAYYCw/s113/20190531_092111.png

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'll introduce some jeopardy here by going the other way. Sounds like Persepolis name on the trophy to me. Qatari referee will help the Iranians.

[Don]

It would have to be a proper shitfest 1-0 aet or pens victory, really can't see how they're going to score (Offie you may want to change your bets to favour Busan as a result) but I also have never watched any of this Busan side (but fear not for the form speaks for itself).

I'd be angry but I'm just glad the community can come together in a feast of gambling, like the degenerates we are.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It would have to be a proper shitfest 1-0 aet or pens victory

I would like to introduce you to an old friend of mine: football as played in the Islamic world.

[Don]

Don't group us in with the Arabs, please, he says as he watches his domestic league filled with nepotism and corruption yielding XIs with an average age of 30+ and one of the lowest goals per game averages in the world :happycry:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Going down injured in your own half at 0-0 on 61 minutes is the sixth pillar of Islam and I'd say the Hajj is very definitely looking over its shoulder, too.

[Baz]

Why do you keep mentioning Busan?

[Don]

Woah, there's a mindfuck.

[Pleb]

Whose winning the Copa Liberatores this year Taz?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Choo choo.

[Offshore Toon]

It would have to be a proper shitfest 1-0 aet or pens victory, really can't see how they're going to score (Offie you may want to change your bets to favour Busan as a result) but I also have never watched any of this Busan side (but fear not for the form speaks for itself).

I'd be angry but I'm just glad the community can come together in a feast of gambling, like the degenerates we are.
Cash outs are tiny so I'm strapped in.

[Offshore Toon]

Shit train so far. What happened to it being live on YouTube? I can't see anything.

[Don]

No, looks like buffstreams it is. Missed most of the forst half and will only half watch second half. Looking alright for your overs.

[Baz]

Ulsan -1.0 3/1 £25
:moop:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm up a little.

Cheers Taz.

[Don]

We'd all be up if we weren't greedy. As it is, dead train.

[-james-]

https://twitter.com/austin_james906/status/1339753088199090176

1.6+ still widely available on Barcelona DNB.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1339753093790109702

£30 on the draw @ 3.

[Jimmy Floyd]

How do bookies miss things like that?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Especially in leagues/countries that would be right up for that sort of stuff.

[Kikó]

It won't be a draw.

[Baz]

We'd all be up if we weren't greedy. As it is, dead train.
True dat. Good shout on that bloke scoring too.

[Offshore Toon]

Nobody hops on a train for evens. Either bring true insight or fuck off.

[Luca]

Are there odds for the first MP to be caught mixing with their family in a Tier 4 zone?

[-james-]

How do bookies miss things like that?

They are oblivious to this sort of thing. All they do is stick up opening prices generated by some algorithm (likely largely based on the respective teams' historical prices at kick-off), and let the market do the work for them.

Opening lines have very small limits, meaning that it only takes a relatively small amount of money to bump the price around. Anything a bookmaker gets wildly wrong does not cost them a lot to correct, and by the time the match starts you can assume that the odds are about right.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bookmaking and pimping must be the two easiest rackets in human history.

[-james-]

I reckon Paddy Power's yearly expenditure sheet is about 1% odds compilation and 99% marketing grads/Jose Mourinho adverts.

[-james-]

Chuck a bit of customer profiling in there as well. Got to be absolutely sure that the only bets you lay are to addicts and weekend acca merchants.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

It won't be a draw.

https://i.imgur.com/qmxlU0f.png

Ended 0-0, cheers -james-

[Baz]

Yeah, good shout.

[Baz]

Get your Christmas money on this:

https://i.imgur.com/f4nR6ps_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[Waffdon]

14s elsewhere. EW or on the nose?

[Baz]

EW to avoid being disappointed with second, like when it was 28/1 recently.

[Offshore Toon]

James pulls through with the proper train. £121 profit from that (draw, draw-draw and 0-0). Legend.

On the Baz horse.

[-james-]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftlfPb0gyxI

[Manc]

Get your Christmas money on this:

https://i.imgur.com/f4nR6ps_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

What gives?

[Kikó]

https://i.imgur.com/qmxlU0f.png

Ended 0-0, cheers -james-

Well played! :youpi:

[Waffdon]

6/4 for West Ham not to lose tonight. They love a London Derby and Chelsea’s best player should be out injured. Only way I don’t see it as value is of Werner is played through the middle

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think you'll find Mason Mount is fighting fit.

[Don]

Burnley is the train today. 2 midgets and a back 8 trying to do anything against a full-strength Burnley, do me a favour.

[Offshore Toon]

Fair play to Taz for the Burnley train today, even though I missed it. I'm going to follow Waff with West Ham to make up for it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I doubted the train and as such refused to board :(