The Betting Thread

[Baz]

What made you so sure PSG would lose?

[Waffdon]

Hope you got on 20+ booking points :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

Joakim has done us a beauty there. Not getting anything in the US where HV3's 13 under par looks to be coming up about 10 short in a stupid birdie fest.

US Open next week so I will be back after some hard research.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I skipped the golf picks this week :(

Hopefully the US Open is big.

[Lofty]

My mate does very well gambling, throws me the odd horse tip. Last one he had won and from the same source he has told me: Bumble beee 4.40 & Aidens reward 6.20. Both Wolverhampton.

[Waffdon]

I’d trust Hollie Doyle on anything at an all weather race track and the second horse has already been punted from 11/1 to 9/2. Choo choo

[Kikó]

Cheers Lofty. Bumble Bee comfortable.

[Waffdon]

Hollie Doyle from the front on all weather is something else. I put £20 on the double at 13.5/1. Papped out of doing singles

[Baz]

Hollie Doyle from the front on all weather is something else. I put £20 on the double at 13.5/1. Papped out of doing singlesSames.

[Baz]

NR. Refused.

[Lofty]

Better than the fucker doing it after it was in the stall to be fair.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My US Open picks thrown into slight chaos by the Covid withdrawal of Scottie Scheffler, who was going to be a real massive value selection. However, we will go, each way in all cases, with this squadron:

Rory McIlroy 14/1. Of the six big favourites, I think this is where the value is. DJ at 7/1 is the form player but that is so short for a major championship, especially a US Open. Jon Rahm is going to win one soon but again, 8/1 doesn't tempt me. Barry McMinge has been toiling for a fifth major for some years now and hasn't had a great summer, but looked better at the recent Tour Championship and a three week old baby might just free up his mind - there are well known stats about new fathers being weirdly likely to win on tour.

Daniel Berger 25/1. This guy has done nothing but good things all year and his game is only going in one direction, which is up, after languishing in 2019. He's a good all round player and has been putting very well - I haven't backed him of late as I haven't trusted the resurgence fully, but after about 15 quality outings in a row, he's become hard to ignore.

Matthew Fitzpatrick 40/1. This guy is a tough competitor, and seems to excel in difficult conditions - exactly the qualities you need in a US Open. He won't be a prolific winner on easy courses but make life difficult for the bomb and gougers, as it will be this week, and it brings him right into play.

Rasmus Hojgaard 100/1. There's always a European wildcard who does well at this tournament and after considering former champ Martin Kaymer (80/1), I've gone with young Rasmus. He is the in-form player in Europe at the moment, and at just 19 has already won twice, including recently at the Belfry. The Americans won't know anything about him and nor will the market.

Corey Conners 150/1. He may not be a well known name, but I consider these odds to be outrageous. He has taken a huge step up statistically in 2020 from previous years, and although he has just the one tour victory and nothing of note in majors, I don't see why this course couldn't be where he comes good.

J.T. Poston 300/1. A true outsider, this is based on nothing except a wild statistical variance between what my cheat sheet has him at (120/1) and what the market has him at - the biggest such variance of any player in the field.

I have ignored lots of potential winners, some real big dogs and top players - what I'm really going for in a market that pays out 10 places with my bookie (Coral) is each way value.

[SvN]

Fiver E/W on Rasmus Hojgaard. If he doesn't make the cut I'll send you my invoice.

[Lofty]

All aboard Jim's long shot picks, choo choo

[Kikó]

Train is ON.

[Baz]

I’ll do a quid on each if my horses win today.

[Ian]

I made a whopping £9 profit on one of Lofty's horses above so I've put a couple of quid each way on Berger. Choo choo, etc.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Btw, every one of those will have better odds on a Betfair outright market or similar, those prices are depressed as it's a 10 place each way market I'm using.

[Manc]

Thoughts on Fleetwood?

[Don]

Great town, top infrastructure GAHAHHAHAHAHHAHHHAHA

No but seriously, as with all these, team news has to be waited for but Bournemouth look tasty if they go in strong assuming Palace will probably play a heavily weakened side.

[Lofty]

Just to point out Jim Skybet is paying 11 places E/W until tee off and has some of those higher than your listed odds, if you want to double dip.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thoughts on Fleetwood?

28/1 is too short for me - has a good game for this (and for everything, tbh) but has had a slightly weird schedule of late, flying to and fro, and playing the Portugal Masters last week which is about as far away from US Open conditions as you can get.

Matt Fitz for top Englishman is probably decent value on those side markets you get. Hatton, Rose, Casey all bumping his price up along with Tommy Lad.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've gone for Berger, Rasmus and Corey.

Was also going to get on Fitzpatrick but his odds on Betfair have come in.

[Baz]

Paddy Power doing free £5 for existing customers, on the Chelsea Liverpool game on Sunday. https://promos.paddypower.com/promotion?promoCode=fbcheliv2009

[Kikó]

Rasmus Hojgaard 100/1. There's always a European wildcard who does well at this tournament and after considering former champ Martin Kaymer (80/1), I've gone with young Rasmus. He is the in-form player in Europe at the moment, and at just 19 has already won twice, including recently at the Belfry. The Americans won't know anything about him and nor will the market.


It won't be him this time. +7 in round 1.

[Manc]

£5 ew tickle on Fleetwood.

[Jimmy Floyd]

On any great voyage there will be violent deaths along the way. RIP young Rasmus, you will be missed.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Early signs for utter carnage today, the team are coming back into it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Berger is on it.

[Ian]

Berger is on it.

:drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Anyone who gets in at +1 or better today will be bang in it. Maybe even +2. DJ looking slightly ominous after a shit start yesterday. JT also could run away with it if he plays like yesterday, but that's when those sweet, sweet places come into it.

RIP the Fitz, his body will be laid down next to Rasmus and we will honour the fallen.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Berger decided to get off it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

RIP Poston.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They showed him playing a one handed backwards shot from behind a tree earlier, this is the sort of player I love to back at 300/1.

Might have to exhume Fitzpatrick's corpse the way this scoring is going, cut going out like a tsunami tide.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.golfchannel.com/news/jt-poston-misses-cut-us-open-after-suffering-freak-eye-injury

What a way to end a train.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was worth it for this:

1307021823192825856

He also bounced it onto the green off a tree canopy 50 yards left of a par 3. All in all, £2 well spent. Sadly Conners absolutely shat the bed coming in with 4 dropped shots in the last 5 to miss the cut by one, leaving me with just two survivors.

[SincereTheRebel]

Nice @10 vs PSG.

PSG have won one of their first three league games, scoring once. Nice has two wins.


Edit: 10 minutes gone and it's 0-0. However, Mbappe has picked up the ball in the Nice box three times, gone past a man and got a shot off. Only for it to be blocked. He is looking ferocious

LOST. PSG are 3-0 up after 80 minutes

[Manc]

Liverpool humiliating Chelsea is the bet of the day.

[Don]

What was our man Bryson's odds?

[Jimmy Floyd]

He went off about 7th fav at 20/1 or so, iirc. Having been all in on him at the PGA I am a bit pissed off I didn't foresee him cockbombing this course into submission, but then I don't think anyone did - it's a transformative moment for the sport.

The theory goes that with tough greens and high rough, accuracy is a premium - but Bryson has just shown that that's not true at all and if you roid up and hit it 30 yards past everyone then you will prevail regardless of accuracy. It's likely to lead to some rule changes, largely because he's a massive tool and no one wants to see him win 10 majors.

[niko_cee]

Not the golf thread, but as this seems to have become it, surely his body won't be able to hold up to the forces he puts through it hacking balls out of the rough. He was turning himself inside out. The best bit is the running commentary he offers. Must drive everyone around him insane.

[SvN]

Fiver E/W on Rasmus Hojgaard. If he doesn't make the cut I'll send you my invoice.

Can I get a PO please Jimmy?

[Jimmy Floyd]

If I tip him 100 times at that price and he never comes in, then you can have your money back.

I actually made a wholly undeserved 47% of my outlay back on Rory's mincing tie for 8th, which I will be reinvesting in the Irish Open and the ever prestigious Corales Puntacana later in the week.

[Lofty]

Rory recovered my outlay but I think that was the golfing equivalent of the Grand National at times.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Corales Puntacana
Zalatoris 11/1
List 35/1
Mitchell 50/1
Brehm 125/1

Irish Open
Syme 25/1
Korhonen 40/1
Janewattananond 55/1
Reitan 400/1

All e/w

[Don]

https://www.mancity.com/news/mens/pep-guardiola-post-wolves-63736318

Bournemouth at almost 9 to beat City on Thursday. The comments and their available players suggest a Liverpool-Villa type possibility.

[Offshore Toon]

6 now on Bet365, the bastids.

[Don]

We need to keep our ears to the ground in coming weeks for COVID outbreaks and react quick. Spurs and Salzurg would have been tasty in the coming days and it's bound to keep happening.

[Don]

Bookies getting absolutely creamed tonight, the prem 5-fold without Chelsea would have paid out 15/1. Jahanbakksh FGS would have paid 7/1. Thank Potter's idiocy.

[Don]

https://www.mancity.com/news/mens/pep-guardiola-post-wolves-63736318

Bournemouth at almost 9 to beat City on Thursday. The comments and their available players suggest a Liverpool-Villa type possibility.

That did not pan out quite as expected but you'd fancy Bournemouth at these monster prices now.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Corales Puntacana
Zalatoris 11/1
List 35/1
Mitchell 50/1
Brehm 125/1

Irish Open
Syme 25/1
Korhonen 40/1
Janewattananond 55/1
Reitan 400/1

All e/w

Jazz is in for 3rd place in Europe at 55, pleased with that - had a chance to win but slightly muffed it. Across the pond, List is still just about in the hunt, certainly for a place.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Sanderson Farms
Scheffler 9/1
Garcia 45/1
Vegas 80/1
Wise 125/1

Scottish Open
Van Rooyen 28/1
Bezuidenhout 33/1
Waring 60/1
Norris 90/1

All e/w

[John Arne]

Game already started. But, Hue-Binh Phuoc. Get on the draw.

[John Arne]

Game already started. But, Hue-Binh Phuoc. Get on the draw.

Full time. 1-0 BPFC.

[Kikó]

Sanderson Farms
Scheffler 9/1
Garcia 45/1
Vegas 80/1
Wise 125/1

Scottish Open
Van Rooyen 28/1
Bezuidenhout 33/1
Waring 60/1
Norris 90/1

All e/w

Johnny Vegas - I'm in.

[Bob Sacamano]

Very tempted by Galatasaray tonight @ 4.00 to beat Rangers

[Waffdon]

Rangers record in the EL under Gerrard is the only thing making me avoid it. They’ve beaten some really decent teams in the last year.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Wise and Garcia are looking alright thus far.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Sergio's underlying numbers are making me bullish. Scheffler will go mega-low one of the last two days as well, but I think he's too far back, might need 64-64 to win.

[Waffdon]

13/8 for Palace not to lose.

[Don]

Them but primarily Leeds' prices :drool:

[Manc]

Palace, Brighton & Leeds @ 230/1. Woof.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've stuck £5 on Leeds and £5 on Over 4.5/BTTS.

[Don]

Leeds is nice but goals galore seems a safer bet. O5.5. On Burnley too obvs.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Sergio's underlying numbers are making me bullish. Scheffler will go mega-low one of the last two days as well, but I think he's too far back, might need 64-64 to win.

Scheffler is done but Wise and Garcia are on it.

[Kikó]

Van Rooyen sat in third.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My thing pays seven places, think he might squeak that, absolutely no idea how, I had given up on those wankers after day 2.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I thought he had no chance when I looked at the leaderboard last night, what a hero.

I've got 8 places so there's a chance.

[Jimmy Floyd]

When he finished his round yesterday I think he was nine back. Then the weather got angry, they all came backwards but even then he was seven back this morning.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Finished 6th (top 8 due to ties so might have some dead heats applied for 6/7 place sites) which is sweet.

£8 profit on him.

If Garcia wins and Wise places we could be on for a biggie.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

£9 on Spurs -4.

They've also given me less than I expected for Rooyen.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've complained as Betfair are trying to claim that my returns for Van Rooyen are because of Dead Heat.

8 places, he finished in the top 8 regardless of ties you mooks.

Edit: They've given me the missing money.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Peter Malnati can fuck right off. Mon Sergio.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm more scared of Poston.

Wise has also gone off the boil.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think 18 will be hard to get past. Might get a playoff, we'll see.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That shot from Sergio :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

If it goes to a playoff Malnati is gone.

Lounging around with his wife and child instead of hitting some balls. Doesn't have it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He's absolutely nailed it on the 18th too.

Sergio :cool:

What a guy.

Cheers Jimmy, great weekend.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Those shots on 14 and 18 were absolute mustard. Gracias señor.

[Kikó]

Well played Jimmy, Sergio and Von Royen. Nice £110 off Sergio winning.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I am away and have questionable internet so you will have to take this week's golf selection bag in the form of a list of names, I haven't got odds to hand but there's a mix of short to long

Shriners
Hideki
Homa
Old Mother Hubbard
Kuchar (through gritted teeth)

PGA
Reed / Hatton (favs but still overpriced)
Green
Beef
Bezuidenhout

[Jimmy Floyd]

My bookie has taken down the Shriners market atm, presumably due to Big Tony having a pos covid test, should be up again later.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair odds:

Hideki @ 19
Kuchar @ 81
Homa @ 201
Hubbard @ 201

Reed @ 12
Hatton @ 17
Bezuidenhout @ 41
Green @ 67
Beef (Andrew Johnston) @ 67

I've got £2 E/W on all except Reed and Hatton which I've taken £4 E/W.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The ones at Shriners are all too long, what is Bryson going off at?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

8.5.

[Bob Sacamano]

10 on Israel, Bosnia and Slovakia at 18.00

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Not looking great across the pond but not too shabby in Wentworth with Hatton tied for the lead, Green just a shot behind the leaders and Beef two behind.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Any time Andrew Landry homes into view near of the top of the leaderboard is a sign that it's a total crapshoot. I nearly took HV3 though so a bit pissed off with that.

Hideki tugged a 4 foot birdie putt on #2, it's good to know where you stand with people sometimes. If anyone else was as bad at putting as he is I think they'd probably be playing cards instead of, say, being a world top 30 ranked golfer.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Fitzpatrick is taking the piss right now.

Edit: His 18th brought him back down to earth though.

[-james-]

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.

That's it. That's the post.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm of a mind with you but reckon Donny might move the needle a bit before the day so am uninvolved as yet.

[Baz]

Plus at 2/5 (fuck you decimal nonces in here), there's little point unless you're happy to risk a massive wedge.

It's not like a Floyd Mayweather fight - there's still some doubt.

[-james-]

Mayweather was the best bet of all time. This is top five.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Trump will have something in his pocket for the last week or so, as with Clinton emails, and even if it doesn't move the result, it'll move the odds. If it's outside 1/10 on the Monday then yes, I'm on.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Good days for Hatton (although his approach shot on the 18th was a shitter, could have easily done an eagle after his tee shot) and Reed along with a decent day for Beef.

Could be on for a decent return tomorrow.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't trust anyone in the chasing pack, other than Reed, so pretty confident at this stage. Fitzpatrick exploding his guts all over the course today was a nice touch, I thought he could be a threat.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

This Frenchie can fuck off.

[Don]

Carrasco starting with no Mertens/Hazard is a shame, as is Gazza 2.0 likely getting 30 mins off the bench but I'm on, regardless.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Hatton and Reed :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Having a winner's ale on that. Love Tyrrell, not the first time he's brought home the bacon.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Put a bit on Belgium after too. 3.1 was far too hefty.

[-james-]

When aftertimes go wrong.

[Don]

Fucking disgusting maggot that he is.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Also had a little on De Bruyne and Rashford to each have a shot on target which came through.

Suck on that after-event, nonces.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

For a bit of pre-eventing.

I've stuck some cash on Italy/Austria/Greece.

[Jimmy Floyd]

CJ Cup

Rahm 8/1
Matsuyama 22/1
Fowler 45/1 (I hate myself for this, but in the computer we trust)
Conners 100/1

Scottish Championship

Paratore 22/1
Senior 55/1
Aphibarnrat 60/1
Cockerill 100/1
Reitan 400/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Fowler :sick:

Betfair only paying out 7 places this time round, they're trying to stop the computer.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's a limited field no-cut event with only 78 starters, of whom about half a dozen are random Korean no-hopers that the sponsor tosses in there, so seven places at 1/5 (which I also have) is probably quite generous.

[Kikó]

On the latest train. Mon Reitan.

[Don]

Norway [or even -1]
Belgium
Czech
England

If team news not bad I'll have that and Mahow will hopefully stay the fuck away.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I only ever bet against England.

[Don]

Scrap England after that starting XI and don't like presence of McGinn and Fraser much.

Norway -1 and Belgium -1 double.
Norway, Belgium, Czech treble.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I am on Norway, Belgium, Czech and Portugal though.

[Don]

:sick:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I officially blame Taz for that display from the Czech Republic.

https://i.imgur.com/WxodxZx.png

A proper FMing.

[Don]

Please stick to golf or just posting your bets in good time, you fuck.

[Waffdon]

I officially blame Taz for that display from the Czech Republic.

https://i.imgur.com/WxodxZx.png

A proper FMing.

Hardly looked like scoring at all. Stats mean fuck all.

[Mellberg]

Scrap England after that starting XI and don't like presence of McGinn and Fraser much.

Norway -1 and Belgium -1 double.
Norway, Belgium, Czech treble.

Wash your mouth out. McGinn's a fat arsed sensation.

[Don]

You misunderstand, I was all on backing Czechs until I saw the fat arsed and the stubby arsed sensations in the Scotland team.

[Mellberg]

Sincere apologies :thbup:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

This page has been far too dark for the TTH betting collective and animosity like this hasn't been seen since the days of 'Jeet.

We have to be better lads.

I'd personally like to offer my sincerest apologies to Taz.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Can confirm I am now on Biden and the stake is large.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Reitan had himself a very good day.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is a 22 year old Norwegian kid with loads of talent, still outside 600 in the world rankings and hasn't done anything yet hence the odds but he's one of those whose numbers just scream at you off the page amongst all the journeyman chaff. I was on him at the Irish Open as well iirc but missed the cut by plenty there. If he has a good weekend this will be his last time at 400/1.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That triple bogey by Matsuyama (I'm not watching, what happened?) is a real shitter.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Looking at my first blank for about six weeks here. Hideki is like a drug, and I am an addict. The Fowler pick was a disgrace though, as is he.

If I'd known that Kokrak was an ambassador for MGM hotels (who own the course) and had visited 20 times whereas no one else has played it at all... it's what you know.

[Yevrah]

I watched a video on 'courtsiding' in tennis yesterday. Tell me, why aren't we doing it? Looked an absolute no brainer and it staggered me such a system exists.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Harder to do in covid times I imagine, but I'm pretty sure that Chinese high rollers do indeed have spotters living in shanty flats around the UK who are sent to League 1, 2 and Conference games to do exactly that.

[Yevrah]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvT_yIVI2Qw

This was the video I watched.

I can only assume that if it's still viable the bookies have just baked in the loss they make and it's still worthwhile from all the regular nutters betting on who wins which point.

[Baz]

Wasn't that James' job for a bit?

[Don]

The accounts will get spotted and closed and that's after taking into account the costs and organisation it all requires.

[Yevrah]

Is it a no from the Iranian judge then?

That does seem like quite the deal breaker. There's something in the vid about him buying accounts from people, but no idea how you'd funnel all the money back to yourself without it being obvious they were all connected.

[Kikó]

Definitely a one way ticket to restricted accounts and/or buying accounts. Bookies don't like winners.

[Lofty]

Yeah even without underhand tactics they don't like winners. My mate has been consistently smashing bets for years now but has had to go more towards spread betting on corners via exchanges because his online accounts with big bookmakers were being limited to low stakes.

[Boydy]

I've had a fun afternoon.

https://i.ibb.co/9V7119x/Screenshot-20201019-171150-Chrome.jpg (https://ibb.co/cCjZZcW)

[Baz]

Why’d you pick those?

[Boydy]

The one that lost was a tip on the racing post. The others I just picked myself from reading the form.

[Boydy]

I'm on Steelriver in 18:00 at Wolverhampton as well. It's a longer shot though.

[Boydy]

I'm on Steelriver in 18:00 at Wolverhampton as well. It's a longer shot though.

It did not win.

[Waffdon]

Morecambe and Bristol City getting you 6.44 for the double seems a bit mental. Don’t understand either teams odds whatsoever

[Jimmy Floyd]

Small stake fancies this week on the golf, none of the favourites are showing up as value apart from Schwab.

Zozo

Im 40/1
Kisner 80/1
Kuchar 100/1 (this is almost as dirty as last week's backing of Micky Growler)
Duncan 200/1

Italian Open

Schwab 22/1
Vincent 90/1
Heisele 100/1
Gagli 110/1
Reitan 250/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The Computer doesn't fancy Tiger to make history?

[Jimmy Floyd]

There's a bit (a lot) of course form in Woodsy's favour, but against him is the fact he barely plays, is a knackered nearly 45 year old man, hasn't done anything this year, and the last of those wins was in 2011.

28/1 shows up as a bad investment. He's on my radar for the Masters but then so is everyone. And if I know Tigger's sense of theatre he will not be passing the (arbitrary, made up) record at the Zozo.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've gone on PSG -2 today.

There's no chance we're not getting turned over.

[Waffdon]

Morecambe and Bristol City getting you 6.44 for the double seems a bit mental. Don’t understand either teams odds whatsoever

Bookies ken ahin

[Jimmy Floyd]

Am I missing something with Biden still being as high as 1.57?

I've got him 49 votes up and that's being generous and giving Trump all the toss-up states of North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Georgia. DT needs all those plus at least two of Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan before he thinks about winning - I just can't see how it's possible. But then the market clearly thinks it is perfectly possible as the layers are giving you over half your money if it does.

Political markets can be weird sometimes. I well remember getting a good few quid on Putin at 1.25 for the last Russian election.

[Foe]

Is this not what happened 4 years ago? And then he absolutely smashed it.

[Spikey M]

Alot of Trump voters don't want to admit they're Trump voters.

4 more years, baby.

[phonics]

The guy who saw the Clinton crash coming a week early is predicting a similar crash for Trump. It's not about the national polls, it's the local stuff.

1318625080704962565

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you dig deep into the numbers it doesn't really look like 2016 at all to me - I'm not going to pretend to know about American local factors in any depth, but Biden just has a starting cushion of a few percent more everywhere than Crooked Hillary ever had.

[phonics]

If he hadn't pretended a global pandemic was a personal attack on him and actually done some work for the first time in 70 years it would be very, very close imo.

[Kikó]

I read that the predictions weren't that far off in 2016. Clinton lead in the battleground states by 4-5% compared to Trump which was within a standard deviation of error. Trump's chances to win were 30% (so not impossible just unlikely). They've changed the sampling since to include the under sampling of non-college educated white voters for this election. Biden's gains have been on former Trump voters and the 2018 undecideds have solidified away from Trump.

Biden is leading 8-10% so margin of error = x2 previously.

[Manc]

Roma's odds. :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

1319425004090556416

:harold:

[niko_cee]

What a shit way to break a club.

At least go a bit mental with it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thomas Pieters is the god-emperor of club snapping. Remember him javelin-ing the two halves into a gorse bush at the Open once.

[Waffdon]

Doing the £1000 drop thing on Paddy Power. On question 10 with £1000 left and pinging it all on btts in the Watford game. Not sure whether to just split the next 2 questions if it wins and guarantee myself £250 or go all out. Reading to win is a question for the 3Pm games which looks a near enough cert.

[Baz]

3:15 Lock’s Corner 16/1

[Waffdon]

Doing the £1000 drop thing on Paddy Power. On question 10 with £1000 left and pinging it all on btts in the Watford game. Not sure whether to just split the next 2 questions if it wins and guarantee myself £250 or go all out. Reading to win is a question for the 3Pm games which looks a near enough cert.

Last kick of the ball :drool:

2 to go

[Baz]

3:15 Lock’s Corner 16/1Went off at 25/1 but I never thought I’d be so pissed off at an EW bet coming 2nd

PROFIT is profit I guess

[Offshore Toon]

Nice tip, Baz.

[Boydy]

Yeah, had 2 quid each way on it. Had 3 on I'd Better Go Now as well though which was shit.

Where'd you get the tip?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Heisele with a big day.

Reitan is still in the mix too.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Kris still lacking a bit of know-how but he is blitzing his odds every week, I think I will stay on him until he makes it (or as long as the computer still likes him).

There are some chumps at the top - Ross McGowan looks like Steve Pemberton playing a divorced dad - so I have some hope for Heisele.

[Waffdon]

Last kick of the ball :drool:

2 to go

I changed my mind and didn’t go with Reading to win and picked btts in Fulham game. I’ve truly fucked it

[niko_cee]

In a straight choice between Reading winning at home against Rotherham and Fulham scoring against Woy's All Out Defence Palace side you went with Fulham?

Edit, Lordy!

:D

[Waffdon]

Unreal. I might just split the last for £500 as I can’t take these last minute goals anymore

[Manc]

Why are you still gambling?

[Waffdon]

It’s free on their website lol

[Baz]

Where'd you get the tip?Long story but the short version is from a private group I’m no longer in, and he’s on my tracker.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Reitan's hit a a 7 under to leave him on -17.

Could well get a place on him.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

With the way Canter, McGowan, Heisele and Burmeister have played the last couple he might even be in with a chance of winning it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

No chance of winning it, and I suspect knife edge on placing, but the boy chucking in a Sunday 65 is :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Canter is shitting the bed.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Think Kris is just going to place, even if it's slightly split. Champagne orgy at mine tonight.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

If my calculations are right that's 115 back for me with hopefully some more in America to follow.

Edit: Calculations were correct. Mon Im, Kisner, Kuchar and Duncan.

[Jimmy Floyd]

5 profitable weeks in the last 6, probably my best ever run which funnily enough coincides with starting to use hard statistics instead of my gut.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

-16 for Kisner which probably wont be enough for a place.

Ouch.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That lot were long gone yesterday, this place is a birdie fest so you can't really come from behind. Still more than doubled my money off the two legends in Europe.

As a betting neutral this is however a great watch as Rahm and JT duel to the finish.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bermuda

Varner III 22/1
Homa 70/1
Dufner 80/1
Baker 100/1
V.Taylor 125/1

Cyprus

Green 33/1
Hebert 40/1
Waring 40/1
Samooja 70/1

All E/W

The bookies have latched onto Reitan now (:() but if you want a long one for Cyprus, try Cormac Sharvin 300/1.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Samooja only at 56 on Betfair for some reason, still worth it at that price?

Reitan is at 81 over there which doesn't seem too bad.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Reitan is 100/1 at my bookie. I don't rate him at that price though, other than maybe as a heart bet as I've become a little attached to the young pup. I wouldn't take Samooja at 56.

Probably no liquidity on Betfair.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Put the Samooja money on Sami Valimaki after some research yesterday (and to keep the Finnish vibes) and he's done fairly well today.

Not the best start for the other picks but hopefully they'll have a cracking second day tomorrow.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Valimaki was on my longlist but didn't like the odds at 28/1. Quality young player especially with driver in hand.

Gavin Green can go fuck himself, the rest are alive.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Taylor with a great round over in Bermuda.

[Don]

1320691814328840194

There's a lot to unpack.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Literally, I fear, in a large suitcase in the corner dating back to when the missus chucked him out.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A 64 from the Frenchie :drool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Varner going 9 over for the day ffs.

Edit: A lot of big scores in round 2 from the early lot. Weather must be atrocious.

[Jimmy Floyd]

BBC weather for Bermuda says 20mph+ winds for the rest of the tournament, absolute sweepstakes. The one trick pony fair weather Americans will plummet down the leaderboard and some old sea dog with zero form will win. I'm looking at the leaderboard and bearing in mind my obsessive personality means I know every fucking golfer under the sun, 'Eric Dugas' at -6 is news to me.

HV3 is close to going on my timeform squiggle list along with Finau and Honest Abe Ancer. Great technical golfer with amazing underlying stats, but any time he comes across any sort of adversity his arse starts twitching.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/playerpage/1627229/eric-dugas

It seems this is only his third event outside of Hawaii.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's a PGA club pro in Hawaii, must have gone off about 8 billion to one. Doesn't even have a world ranking and they go down to 2,000.

[Lofty]

I may have mentioned this before and it might be pure luck but I suspect statistically it is impossible: every payday, this being the fifth in a row I have managed it now, I put £10 on Sky Roulette spread across 6 numbers and I win on the first spin. Not sure if it is some gateway scheme but I am cheap so always cashout :D

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I never knew the Finns loved Cyprus so much.

The French lad is a prick.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

BBC weather for Bermuda says 20mph+ winds for the rest of the tournament, absolute sweepstakes. The one trick pony fair weather Americans will plummet down the leaderboard and some old sea dog with zero form will win. I'm looking at the leaderboard and bearing in mind my obsessive personality means I know every fucking golfer under the sun, 'Eric Dugas' at -6 is news to me.

HV3 is close to going on my timeform squiggle list along with Finau and Honest Abe Ancer. Great technical golfer with amazing underlying stats, but any time he comes across any sort of adversity his arse starts twitching.
You really jinxed Dugas by calling him out.

Finished yesterday with a double bogey and two bogeys and today he's sitting on +5 for the round.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Samooja missed a straight five footer to lose the playoff. Fucking turnip. Still a place at 70/1 but fuck off.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I watched it, clearly the pressure got to him.

I wish Betfair hadn't tanked his odds as Valimaki only got a shared place after 3 bogeys in his back 9 :(

[Jimmy Floyd]

The number of times that happens in playoffs, missing diddlers when the other bloke's in the hole, is ridiculous. It's what makes golf such a great sport, the live mental disintegration. Same thing happened to me earlier in the year with Morikawa from an even shorter distance when he lost to Berger at Colonial.

Oh well, probably another profitable week, we go again.

[Waffdon]

2.40 for Trump ��

[Baz]

:thbdn:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Houston Open

Hovland 20/1
Im 25/1
Van Rooyen 70/1
Burns 80/1
Ortiz 125/1

Burns is a MAGA warrior so he'll be fired up to give the libs hell, one way or the other.

Cyprus Showdown - this is on the same course as last week, but playing in a weird experimental format with 2 cuts and they reset the scores after each one.

Detry 22/1
Hebert 40/1
Armitage 40/1
Lombard 125/1

Could do with a profitable week this week to give me a bank to do my worst with a bit of side action next week at (dun dun dun) THE MASTERS.

[Baz]

£25.02 spread across the lot. Let’s go!

[Bob Sacamano]

40 on the Liverpool/Real Madrid double

[John Arne]

Want free money?

Quang Ninh v Hanoi
8th Nov.

[-james-]

Go on.

[Offshore Toon]

Which sites are covering it? 365 don't have it up yet.

[Baz]

Want free money?

Quang Ninh v Hanoi
8th Nov.
What’s the story?

[John Arne]

What’s the story?

Final day of the season. Same bloke owns both clubs. Hanoi need to win (and hope Viettel lose) and they win the title. Quang Ninh already safe.

[Lofty]

Not on Sky or Ladbrokes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Same bloke owning two clubs in the same league, absolutely no conflict of interests there. Excellent regulations.

[John Arne]

Same bloke owning two clubs in the same league, absolutely no conflict of interests there. Excellent regulations.

It gets worse. He "owns" 5 in total, having been 6 last season. Hanoi, SHB Danang, Quang Nam and Quang Ninh and Hong Linh Ha Tinh. And a couple in V.League 2.

Your friend and mine, former top goal scorer in a calendar year contender, Vu Samson, was last season loaned from Hanoi to Quang Nam to help them avoid relegation despite being Hanoi's best player. It worked.

[Waffdon]

Odds for Vietnamese league 2 for tomorrow on 365 so odds may appear closer to Sunday. 1/8 incoming

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Grayson Murray is STORMING Houston.

+13 after 13 holes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Grayson Murray is the single biggest cunt in golf (in a seriously competitive field) and a massive Trump fan. I saw someone do a quality 'STOP THE COUNT' gag while posting a pic of his scorecard earlier.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He's getting pasted on Twitter.

[Baz]

Final day of the season. Same bloke owns both clubs. Hanoi need to win (and hope Viettel lose) and they win the title. Quang Ninh already safe.I’m all over that then.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Carlos Ortiz :cool:

[Lofty]

Anyone found a market for Vietnamese footballing shenanigans yet?

[-james-]

https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/vietnam/v-league-1/

Keep an eye on this, should be up by tomorrow. Might have to be quick with prices, sounds like the sort of thing that the market will know about.

[Offshore Toon]

Mahow, bro, fancy refreshing all day/night and texting me when it's up?

[Baz]

And me

[John Arne]

The game isn't till Sunday evening (my time) - Sunday morning for you lot. Usually appears on betting sites within 24hrs of KO.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Detry (just) and Armitage into the final round of the Cyprus showdown.

Over in Houston Sam Burns is leading, Ortiz is in second and Hovland & Van Rooyen aren't too far behind. Hopefully they push on today.

Sunday could be a BIG day.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Houston is almost going too well, but Burns's underlying numbers are incredible. Not quite as convinced by Ortiz.

That scramble as to whether or not Detry would get in was mental. Bland left the last putt 1 inch short and that would have knocked him out. Hopefully they will set the course up far harder tomorrow and that will suit Detry and Armitage against some of the riff-raff that has made it through.

[Offshore Toon]

It looks like 365 are just ignoring the Hanoi game as it still isn't up but there's another Vietnamese game listed for 10am tomorrow.

[Baz]

It looks like 365 are just ignoring the Hanoi game as it still isn't up but there's another Vietnamese game listed for 10am tomorrow.Some straight bullshit.

Take my money, Sky!

[Manc]

Stay well clear. I can't remember a JA tip ever coming through.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Houston is almost going too well, but Burns's underlying numbers are incredible. Not quite as convinced by Ortiz.

That scramble as to whether or not Detry would get in was mental. Bland left the last putt 1 inch short and that would have knocked him out. Hopefully they will set the course up far harder tomorrow and that will suit Detry and Armitage against some of the riff-raff that has made it through.

Another great day for both of them and Hovland is only 1 shot off a dead heat placing.

A big win leading into the Masters would be lovely.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I can't tell you how well Burns is statting up for this. If he had holed any putts he would be about seven clear. Ortiz has done the opposite, not hit the ball great but holed everything. Usually that holds up less well over 4 days but who knows. Chuffed with how they're going anyway. DJ will be a problem if he's arsed tomorrow. No one beyond DJ can win unless the top 5 all shit their guts (not impossible).

The only thing I'm not so enamoured with is my Masters position. I had a good team going until yesterday, then Joaquin Niemann dropped out with Covid and Day (who was going to make the side) has had his odds slashed to fuck with this performance today, so doubt I will take him now. 5 million word preview coming up Monday (I love this shit).

[niko_cee]

Stay well clear. I can't remember a JA tip ever coming through.

:D

I was going to say this. He's had quite a few sure things go the other way.

[niko_cee]

Betfair do have that market up now though, I think (https://www.betfair.com/sport/football/vietnamese-v-league/quang-ninh-v-ha-noi-t-and-t/30114325), 1/3 for Ha Noi (?) if free money is your game.

[John Arne]

:D

I was going to say this. He's had quite a few sure things go the other way.

Pretty sure I'm 2 out of 3.

Predicting corruption is hard :D there may be double-corruotuon going on!

[Baz]

I’m on.

[-james-]

Hard to imagine there's much value at 4/11. Maybe if it's all square with half an hour to go and the home side's defence starts parting like the red sea.

[Baz]

Value or not, it’s been personally guaranteed by John Arne.

[John Arne]

I'm going 7-0 to Hanoi.

[John Arne]

Hanoi 1-0 up.

[John Arne]

2-0 Hanoi.

[Baz]

4-0 Thanks mate.

[Lofty]

Excellent tip shame I was stewing from last night's hangover and missed the pre KO odds :D

[niko_cee]

Never in doubt.

:hat:

Now to lose that little bonus backing City this afternoon.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Detry :moop:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I hope you missed Armitage going full Tin Cup on the 18th. Birdie would have got him to -5, instead he kept leathering balls out of bounds :D

Great to see Bob get the win, lovely golfer.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Jesus. Thankfully I stuck it on just after that.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

At least the eagle there takes a non-dead heat placing.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'd like to state that I do no like "DJ".

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Ortiz with a HUGE putt there :drool:

[Don]

Lad, I swear there's a golf thread, don't pollute me like this.

[Offshore Toon]

Is it just me, Jimmy and Mahow on this train? Big money on the line. :drool:

Hopefully Burns can pull away a bit to comfortably place too.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Baz has money on too.

Ortiz is looking really good but DJ is a cunt that can make things happen.

Hovland isn't too far off the placings too although I can't see him getting there.