The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[Lewis]

There are some pretty impressive individuals knocking around the [Conservative] back-benches, but obviously the older generations had war records and didn't have to make all of their decisions based on what the twenty-four hours news cycle of shite would make of it, so their twattery was mainly directed against each other.

This debate on ITV should be good. Remain have put a load of women up in the hope that Boris Johnson thinks twice about the Twitter reaction (see above) before blustering his way through it and lolling at people, but two of them are Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd, who are completely hopeless, so they might end up getting donned shitless by Andrea Leadsom.

[GS]

I can't imagine Sturgeon will play well in England, outside the dense people who need to google whether you can vote for the SNP in England.

[Lee]

It isn't possible to take Johnson seriously, is it?

[Lewis]

Gisela Stuart is the most German-looking woman ever.

[Lewis]

Eagle is so, so bad.

[Lee]

Eagle is so, so bad.

Charisma of a damp rag.

I'm close to giving up on this already. Too many people and half of them are shit.

[Lewis]

Two hours of this. Fucking hell.

[Lee]

Eagle speaks like a fucking dalek.

[Lewis]

And she seems to think that this is a domestic election debate, presumably because Labour people like her don't have a life outside of anti-Conservative feeling.

[Lee]

Fucking hell, get her off. :facepalm:

[Magic]

Two IN votes sent away.

[Lee]

How much better would this be if it was just Leadsom vs Sturgeon?

The rest are just utter spastics.

[Lewis]

This is why people don't want women Prime Ministers. It all just sounds like fucking nagging.

[Magic]

Also Sebo is a Toby alias. Boom.

[GS]

There are too many people in this - they're just SHOUTING.

[Lewis]

Johnson has been very good tonight, to say I've been calling him a twat forever.

[GS]

He's done quite well.

Remain have clearly decided to try and take out Leave by 'association', which is a fairly grim approach.

[Lee]

Johnson has been very good tonight, to say I've been calling him a twat forever.

I think he started badly and improved. He sounded a twat when he kept repeating Sturgeon's quote back at her, but he kept getting applause for it so I guess he wins. I expected Rudd to be shite but she has been pretty good. I think Sturgeon has been great, as has Stuart after a slow start. Leadsom has been the best of the lot. Eagle should just die.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Tony Blair must have an extraordinary lack of self-awareness.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is why people don't want women Prime Ministers. It all just sounds like fucking nagging.

Whereas Thatcher's tones :drool:

[GS]

Sturgeon intrigues me - how does she reconcile Scottish independence with venomous pro-EU support.

[Lee]

It's no more inconsistent than Unionists wanting out of the EU. There are lots of degrees of support on either side.

Etchingham has been very good tonight.

[Lee]

In more important news I need to turn over because I'm starting to want Amber Rudd to fuck me.

[Lewis]

Wee Jimmy Krankie is such a myth. Thomas Hamilton could have done what she did in the last election, but here she is talking shit, and presumably pissing England right off, because the left have out-sourced anti-austerity to her and her lack of responsibility.

[GS]

Angela Eagle is shocking.

[Lee]

She needs shooting. Forget this debate, I'd be embarrassed if she was my constituency MP.

[GS]

Corbyn's deputy at PMQs.

Maybe he's better sticking it out.

[GS]

Amber Rudd sticking the boot into Boris time and time again. There's no way she's doing that without express permission and/or instruction from Downing Street.

[Lewis]

Yeah, that's what Conservative Twitter seems to think. As with the Labour bullshit, it shows you where their priorities are.

[Lee]

The Tory war after the referendum is going to be :drool:

[GS]

The Tory war after the referendum is going to be :drool:

This is Cameron's doing, which shows you what his priority is. He just doesn't give a shit about anything but winning the next battle. They're lucky Labour are so shit.

Speaking of, Angela Eagle's closing statement. She invoked the trade unions and suggested she'd 'fought the Tories all my life'. Both her and Sturgeon look at everything through some sort of anti-Tory prism. It's fucking bizarre.

I think Leave won that, overall. There was a consistency of message across all three participants which contrasted well with the Remain side. The latter weren't helped by Eagle, who was fucking atrocious.

[Lee]

Yeah, leave won. Not sure it will sway anybody though, I thought the whole thing was poor. Just too many participants.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

Just as a sound, remain were horrific to listen to.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I want to disagree with that, but I'm struggling to think of an alternative since you said 'politician'.

Everyone since Victorian days has been better (obviously the Lib Dems don't count as major). My historical knowledge runs out in about 1860 and starts again in about 1610.

[John]

Eddie the Eagle was like a scene from The Thick of It at times there. Just embarrassing.

[Lee]

Even if she had good things to say you wouldn't put up a person with that voice.

[GS]

Even if she had good things to say you wouldn't put up a person with that voice.

"Chuka" is quite a notable example of lacking an authoritative voice. Even if he was making good points, he comes across as whiny.

[Lewis]

She's from Bridlington, so she was probably molested by a Conservative face-painter.

[GS]

There's some movement on the Labour side - John Mann and Dennis Skinner have both come out for Brexit. Normally I wouldn't care, but the latter appears to have done so - in heroic fashion - in the Morning Star ("proudly owned by our readers" indeed).

[Lee]

Skinner really is great value.

Has Carswell had much to say in this campaign? He and Skinner are my two favourite parliamentarians.

[Lewis]

Newsnight has got Andy Burnham agonising over how Labour reconnects with their voters who want to leave now, as he sits there repeating all of the patronising bullshit ('we've been more Hampstead than Hull') that has caused said disconnect.

Douglas Carswell spends his days distancing Vote Leave from Nigel Farage.

[GS]

Carswell has been quite prominent on the news channels, but Dan Hannan seems to be the preferred option for the political shows. He's also great.

[GS]

Newsnight has got Andy Burnham agonising over how Labour reconnects with their voters who want to leave now, as he sits there repeating all of the patronising bullshit ('we've been more Hampstead than Hull') that has caused said disconnect.

I think Burnham exposed himself during the leadership campaign as a vacuous cretin.

It's quite amazing how the likes of Wor Andy and Eddie the Eagle have managed to get to the upper echelons of Labour. Not that the Tories are much better, of course, but it suggests a genuine dearth of political talent.

[niko_cee]

It's depressing to think that there are still two weeks of this shit to look forward to.

[Lee]

Carswell has been quite prominent on the news channels, but Dan Hannan seems to be the preferred option for the political shows. He's also great.

He is. Presumably leave want him quiet though as he quite likes the idea of being in the EEA which still means paying in and playing by EU rules. Probably not a great message for them to be giving out.

[GS]

He is. Presumably leave want him quiet though as he quite likes the idea of being in the EEA which still means paying in and playing by EU rules. Probably not a great message for them to be giving out.

If you get a chance you should listen to his opening (or closing, I can't remember which it was) speech at the Spectator debate. It's on YouTube somewhere - it's the sort of message Leave should be articulating alongside the 'control' issue.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hannan once said bad things about Our NHS, which disqualifies him from public life really.

[GS]

Farage is waving his passport about again on Question Time.

For fuck sake, Nigel, mate. Give it a rest.

EDIT: The state of Eddie Izzard.

[Lee]

Farage's ego is bizarre. If leave win he will deserve great credit for popularising the debate. Even if they don't he has played a role in forcing a referendum.

You'd think he'd be happy with that, especially in the knowledge that he polarises opinion and is probably the single figure most likely to turn off undecided voters. People who like Farage are already voting to leave. You've done your bit, mate. Time to fuck off.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

Is Eddie Izzard always a monumental twat?

[GS]

Farage's ego is bizarre. If leave win he will deserve great credit for popularising the debate. Even if they don't he has played a role in forcing a referendum.

You'd think he'd be happy with that, especially in the knowledge that he polarises opinion and is probably the single figure most likely to turn off undecided voters. People who like Farage are already voting to leave. You've done your bit, mate. Time to fuck off.

Leave.EU (that Aron Banks ego vehicle) did some analysis which showed he should be deployed sparingly for that very reason. You'd think he'd recognise the point.

There's an issue with the BBC / ITV inviting him on in lieu of representatives from the official campaign, mind you.

[Lewis]

Newsnight is the better bet. They've sent Ronald Rudd to Wolverhampton to investigate poor people, and Suzanne Evans is in Hampstead meeting wankers.

[GS]

Eddie Izzard is fucking awful.

[Lewis]

Mate. Just... What is he even about?

[GS]

That was absolutely shit.

What a terrible audience member to finish on as well - "we're being invaded." For fuck sake.

[Byron]

Labour veteran Dennis Skinner has also come out in favour of the UK leaving the EU.

What a man.

EDIT: Missed the previous page, oh well the man is still a hero.

[Davgooner]

It's also bollocks.

I'm told the law professor has withdrawn his work after your critique.

[Byron]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36496203

[Jimmy Floyd]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/tony-blair-is-coming-back-he-will-be-britains-prime-minister-aga/

Well that's ruined my afternoon.

[Disco]

Does no-one proof read anything anymore?

[Lewis]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/tony-blair-is-coming-back-he-will-be-britains-prime-minister-aga/

Well that's ruined my afternoon.

I asked my mother to bring 'some nice bread' in earlier, and she came back with focaccia. Then that pops up...

[phonics]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkmN2RjWUAAU8Bx.jpg

Oh Daniel.

[Lewis]

That (out of context) stuff was about eight years ago wasn't it? How has that come back up?

[phonics]

No idea, just popped up in my feed.

[Lewis]

I'm expecting a late Enoch Powell intervention before polling day, like King Arthur coming back.

[GS]

I'm told the law professor has withdrawn his work after your critique.

It contains basic misstatements of fact so I would hope he did, yes.

At least do a cursory check of such things before promoting them on here.

[Yevrah]

Neil's barking up the wrong tree with Farage here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's only just occurred to me that the referendum is right in the middle of the football Euros. Surely game, set and match to Remain. It's like having a tennis referendum on the middle Saturday of Wimbledon.

[GS]

Lads.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

I still expect a very late swing back to Remain and them to take it, mind you.

A key figure is 44% of Labour supporters are planning to vote leave. It's a fairly disastrous figure for the leadership, as it suggests they're becoming increasingly disconnected from their base.

[Lee]

Lads.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

I still expect a very late swing back to Remain and them to take it, mind you.

A key figure is 44% of Labour supporters are planning to vote leave. It's a fairly disastrous figure for the leadership, as it suggests they're becoming increasingly disconnected from their base.

Looks like a bollocks poll in the basis of the 12 point lead for leave in the London subsample. We had similar in favour of remain a couple of weeks back when there was a big lead in the older people subsample.

It seems certain now that there has been a move towards leave but this poll looks a bit Mickey Mouse.

[Yevrah]

I thought Farage did ok (I need to catch up with the others), but there was very little substance on any of it.

Booked the 24th off, so just need to sort the snacks now.

[Lee]

I thought Farage did ok (I need to catch up with the others), but there was very little substance on any of it.

Booked the 24th off, so just need to sort the snacks now.

Is there any point? I've just assumed they'll announce the overall result fairly early on (if not the final percentages) and that will be that.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The fallout will be snacks-worthy, especially if it's a Leave.

[Davgooner]

It contains basic misstatements of fact so I would hope he did, yes.

At least do a cursory check of such things before promoting them on here.

Seems pretty spot on to me. Brings the leave lot back to reality somewhat.

[Davgooner]

Regarding the day itself, the financial institutions and hedge funds have commissioned their own exit polls, so keep an eye on the markets and we should know the way it's gone pretty early on.

[GS]

Seems pretty spot on to me. Brings the leave lot back to reality somewhat.

Except it contains basic misstatements of fact, as has been outlined.

If you think it's accurate, you should be disenfranchised.

[GS]

Looks like a bollocks poll in the basis of the 12 point lead for leave in the London subsample. We had similar in favour of remain a couple of weeks back when there was a big lead in the older people subsample.

It seems certain now that there has been a move towards leave but this poll looks a bit Mickey Mouse.

I expect it's rogue too - I'm more interested in the general 'trend' which suggests a move towards Leave.

"Sir" Lynton Crosby has apparently suggested it's a genuine 50/50 at the minute which seems more accurate. The polls have been all over the place, but would certainly indicate it's got closer than the Remain runaway that was previously evident.

[niko_cee]

Jez really ought to switch to leave. It's his best shot at No.10. And it's his real view anyway.

Some definite panic on the continent as well. Vorsprung durch shitting it.

I'm quite liking the 'fear' of this triggering other referenda, as if people voting for such a thing would be implicitly bad.

[Davgooner]

If you think it's accurate, you should be disenfranchised.

:D

Consider it done.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The poll above has some quite fruity certain to vote weighting, but then it could also be correct weighting. We just don't know because we haven't had one of these before.

[GS]

The one thing polls like this do is reinforce the media narrative, because the stories become about Remain panic and Leave momentum. The entire rogue programme of polling last year meant significant coverage was devoted to the prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition - and the potential mechanics of it - and it would surely have influenced how some people were viewing the campaign and the choice in front of them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Remain have another gear of scaremongering to go into I'm sure. If they end up getting the big Jonah from Barack Hussein Obama though, well, lol.

[niko_cee]

Isn't there a serious danger of Juncker really fucking things up if these polls continue for another week?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Oh they could do all sorts. We've already had Schäuble giving it his very best today: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

I want to know what Guy Verhofstadt thinks of all this.

[Lewis]

Isn't there a serious danger of Juncker really fucking things up if these polls continue for another week?

I read the other day that he has agreed to stay quiet, but that he's allowed a big intervention in 'squeaky bum time' so that he doesn't go down as the bloke who stood and watched us leave.

[GS]

They've nowhere left to go from here - they've already stretched the truth about as far as credulity will stretch.

There's still this IMF report to come about a week before the vote, which is quite a nice way for Osborne and co to get around purdah.

Given Lagarde has already claimed to see credible forecasts suggesting a recession of 9.5% of GDP (I mean, for fuck sake), where else can they go?

[Boydy]

The one thing polls like this do is reinforce the media narrative, because the stories become about Remain panic and Leave momentum. The entire rogue programme of polling last year meant significant coverage was devoted to the prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition - and the potential mechanics of it - and it would surely have influenced how some people were viewing the campaign and the choice in front of them.

Political polls are bad for democracy: here's why – video (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/jun/01/political-polls-bad-for-democracy-heres-why-video)

[niko_cee]

Yeah, I read the same. If leave are ahead in the polls with a week to go he's going to have his say.

[GS]

Isn't there a serious danger of Juncker really fucking things up if these polls continue for another week?

Apparently Cameron had to make him agree not to say anything - he negotiated an exemption for himself that he'd be allowed to speak up if the polls showed a big Leave lead in the run-up as he doesn't want to be accused of not doing anything.

I'm all for him speaking up, as it'll do the Remain side no good whatsoever.

[GS]

Political polls are bad for democracy: here's why – video (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/jun/01/political-polls-bad-for-democracy-heres-why-video)

From the Guardian. Do not want.

[Boydy]

From the Guardian. Do not want.

I knew that would be your reaction. :yawn:

[Jimmy Floyd]

The biggest threat to Leave will be if they all gang up and say they're going to try and block it.

[Pepe]

Won't bother with the video but I agree with the title.

[GS]

The biggest threat to Leave will be if they all gang up and say they're going to try and block it.

Who blocks what? I'm not sure who you're replying to.

[Boydy]

Won't bother with the video but I agree with the title.

It only is two and a half minutes.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Who blocks what? I'm not sure who you're replying to.

Block Britain from leaving the EU even if we vote to Leave. All the elites here and there would want it, so it shouldn't be too hard to fudge.

[Boydy]

I'm pretty sure Leave is surging into the lead now because I've decided on Remain. I don't think I've ever voted for the winner in an election.

[GS]

I'm pretty sure Leave is surging into the lead now because I've decided on Remain. I don't think I've ever voted for the winner in an election.

You'll be on here whinging relentlessly about TTIP when it ends up going ahead.

[Pepe]

Well, TTIP is an absolute outrage.

[Boydy]

And if we left we'd get an even worse version under the Tories without the help of any other European governments stopping the worst of it or trying to block it.

[GS]

Well, TTIP is an absolute outrage.

It is, yes. That's the type of deal the EU negotiates behind closed doors for the supposed benefit of the 28 states.


And if we left we'd get an even worse version under the Tories without the help of any other European governments stopping the worst of it or trying to block it.

This clearly isn't true. Other European governments stopping the worst of it? We should be wholly focused on getting the best possible deal for the UK and nobody else. This and CETA are quite good examples of why 'outsourcing' control of these negotiations to Brussels is a complete waste of time.

I do find it interesting that there's an argument being advanced from the left that we somehow 'need' the EU to protect the country from its democratically elected government.

[Boydy]

Our democracy's not very good either.

But you seem to be arguing as if I think the EU is all great. I don't. I think it's a bit shit. But I think leaving would be a bit more shit.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

I don't get that argument, at least the government can be changed.

[GS]

Our democracy's not very good either.

But you seem to be arguing as if I think the EU is all great. I don't. I think it's a bit shit. But I think leaving would be a bit more shit.

Our democracy can be improved, but I don't see the solution being to concede further and further erosion of it to Brussels.

I understand thinking the EU is shit, but I don't see why you really expect it to improve or be reformable in any way. They're not interested in that, and Britain is always going to be viewed as 'difficult'. We can't have 'special status' and expect to have everybody agree with our view of the world on it. They will move towards closer union to make EMU work. That's fine, but I genuinely don't see how you think that ends up being good for us.

[Boydy]

Our democracy can be improved, but I don't see the solution being to concede further and further erosion of it to Brussels.

I understand thinking the EU is shit, but I don't see why you really expect it to improve or be reformable in any way. They're not interested in that, and Britain is always going to be viewed as 'difficult'. We can't have 'special status' and expect to have everybody agree with our view of the world on it. They will move towards closer union to make EMU work. That's fine, but I genuinely don't see how you think that ends up being good for us.

I'm not that arsed if it's reformed or not. It's not that bad.

If things get shitter in it in future, we can leave then. We can't go back in if things outside turn out to be awful.

Also, there's going to be at least some kind of hit on the economy. I've spent enough of my formative years living through recessions and austerity, I don't want to make it any worse.

[Luke Emia]

Our democracy's not very good either.

But you seem to be arguing as if I think the EU is all great. I don't. I think it's a bit shit. But I think leaving would be a bit more shit.

This is also my point and people look at me with two heads when I say it. It's bit like deciding which would be better your best mate sleeping with your missus or your mum. Both of them are shit it's just which one you find worse.

Old boy in the pub earlier was saying to me he thinks if we vote to come out there will be some form of negotiation during the two year period and a new referendum. First off that does sound a bit mental. But how worried would the EU be about us leaving?

[niko_cee]

They're giving it the not bothered big one, but will be (not so secretly) bricking it. The UK leaving would come close to breaking the whole thing (through a mix of financial cataclysm and CONTAGION!), which is quite funny, considering the mutual antipathy felt by so many. It's probably not the time to be leaving, but if it's the only chance you're going to get in the next 40 years then maybe that changes things. It does feel like Britain is now very much on a path to leaving, regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

[Lewis]

This James Dyson statement must have caused some problems in Wanker HQ, because Britain Stronger in Europe have said 'James Dyson wanted the UK to join the euro. He was wrong then and he is wrong now'. Yes. Let's ignore the pro-Euro people.

[GS]

I'm not that arsed if it's reformed or not. It's not that bad.

If things get shitter in it in future, we can leave then. We can't go back in if things outside turn out to be awful.

Also, there's going to be at least some kind of hit on the economy. I've spent enough of my formative years living through recessions and austerity, I don't want to make it any worse.

There's going to be a shock regardless - either it comes now when we leave or it comes in the short to medium term when there are convulsions in the Eurozone contagion as a result of problems with another Greek bailout or a run on the Italian banks. There's risks both ways, the question is how one mitigates those risks.

You're not going to get another vote on it, because a vote to stay this time is going to be the rubber stamp of approval to the current trajectory. The Eurozone will integrate further to make EMU work - it'll have to, and we shouldn't try and stop them.


They're giving it the not bothered big one, but will be (not so secretly) bricking it. The UK leaving would come close to breaking the whole thing (through a mix of financial cataclysm and CONTAGION!), which is quite funny, considering the mutual antipathy felt by so many. It's probably not the time to be leaving, but if it's the only chance you're going to get in the next 40 years then maybe that changes things. It does feel like Britain is now very much on a path to leaving, regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

The main issue with a Brexit is that it would break the idea that it's some sort of perpetual union. British membership probably does give the EU more credibility, and our voting to leave is about the biggest vote of no confidence it would be possible to make. As you say, there's no second chance on this. To steal a line, if you wouldn't vote to join now then you shouldn't vote to stay in.

The big risk of staying in is going to be ever closer union. When you have a more closely integrated Eurozone, with any new members being required to adopt the currency, who are the decision makers going to be more focused on? If the Eurozone does, in practice if not formally, become a sort of superstate to make EMU work then we become a 'province' agitating on the borders - like Bosnia in the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

I also think the democratic deficit, which we've covered before, is going to lead to some fairly serious discontent over the next few years. There was a good poll recently which showed serious dissatisfaction in a number of countries with the EU. If the 'Eurocrats' continue to press ahead with 'the project', your ordinary citizen starts to feel disconnected / disenfranchised, that they're not a stakeholder and that's when more extreme parties start to get traction because they offer populist solutions. The Austrians just about avoided a fascist head of state, and the French only avoid the Front National getting power by having everybody else gang up on them.


This James Dyson statement must have caused some problems in Wanker HQ, because Britain Stronger in Europe have said 'James Dyson wanted the UK to join the euro. He was wrong then and he is wrong now'. Yes. Let's ignore the pro-Euro people.

I was reading last night that the Remain camp's plan for dealing with the Leave surge is to start attacking the personalities as they're losing on policy. It's probably quite difficult to stick the boot into the likes of Dyson or Bamford, because then they're attacking BRITISH BUSINESSES.

[GS]

The Sunday Times have got hold of leaked FCO cables showing the government are actively working towards loosening controls on Turkish nationals travelling to the UK, and that Theresa May has been warned by Europol that increasing migration could raise the terrorist threat. Their political editor has it here, if anybody cares: https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound

Not that any of the above is as MASSIVE as the paper seem to think, but I suppose it's always nice to have a whistleblower.

[phonics]

By the time I've clicked on that story they've said it's total bollocks.

[Lee]

Couple of online polls out tonight, one with Remain two ahead, the other with Leave one ahead. Both very little change from the previous versions.

I had a little look back at the last 20 polls for each mode and when taken over time there has been remarkably little change at all. Phone polls still have Remain ahead comfortably (there has been a very slight tightening) whilst online polls have beem basically the same for the whole period.

I have arrived at two conclusions: we don't really know what the fuck is going on because the two polling modes are showing such different results and confidence in polling after last year is low anyway. And both sides of the debate have every reason to call it 50:50 in public because it is likely to galvanise voters.

[ItalAussie]

If the UK leaves the EU, what happens to European citizens who are currently British residents?

[Kikó]

They will be sent to death camps.

[Byron]

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 're-assesment' period.

This is my issue. My hatred of how the EU treated the Greeks and their desire for a European Superstate drives me to vote Leave but I don't agree with the immigration apocalypse that Leave is predicting.

[GS]

By the time I've clicked on that story they've said it's total bollocks.

Of course they'll deny it, as it goes against Cameron's stated public position during the campaign. The EU are holding back reports on common defence and the budget until after the referendum, perhaps because they know full well that it would reinforce the 'Brexit' narrative.


I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 're-assesment' period.

This is my issue. My hatred of how the EU treated the Greeks and their desire for a European Superstate drives me to vote Leave but I don't agree with the immigration apocalypse that Leave is predicting.

To be fair, the immigration issue is a difficult one. There was always a tendency to write off anybody who had issues with immigration as 'racist' or 'xenophobic' until it became a more mainstream position. There's a clear issue with unrestricted free movement, particularly given much lower wage economies east of the Iron Curtain and the criminally high unemployment rates around the Mediterranean. Those migratory flows are only going to go one way. Free movement would work where everybody's economy was on a broadly similar footing and a similar trajectory, and wages were comparable - but they're not, they're not going to be, and therefore it doesn't work.

The problem with unrestricted free movement from Europe is that you end up 'discriminating' against non-EU citizens. I know a 'high-skill' Australian who's required to sit tests to have their working visa renewed, yet you could hire an unskilled barista to work at Starbucks from anywhere east of the Iron Curtain tomorrow without any difficult whatsoever. It's a policy that doesn't work, and isn't fair because we end up making it far more difficult to bring in the people we need in areas we need them e.g. research and development - all because we're required to restrict non-EU admittance to balance out unrestricted EU admittance.

I don't agree with some of the rhetoric that comes from certain people on the Leave side, but I don't see any reasonable position which says immigration numbers don't need to be controlled.

[Lee]

The "superstate" worry is bizarre. Yeah some EU leaders want it, but it literally can't happen unless member states sign up to it. The idea of the EU as some malevolent external force on the UK is odd too. We are in the EU. We are part of the decision making process, for fuck's sake.

There are good arguments for either decision but those are just lazy.

[GS]

The "superstate" worry is bizarre. Yeah some EU leaders want it, but it literally can't happen unless member states sign up to it. The idea of the EU as some malevolent external force on the UK is odd too. We are in the EU. We are part of the decision making process, for fuck's sake.

There are good arguments for either decision but those are just lazy.

I disagree. We have a certain influence, yes, but there are plenty of examples where laws have been passed that the UK have rejected - whether that be at the Council or in the European Parliament. The Commission holds legislative initiative, and there's a massive democratic deficit which exists.

There is also the issuance of regulations. The HoC library suggests 59.4% of our laws are from the EU. As someone who just wants the government to leave him alone, I can't agree with this creeping need to pass laws and regulations to this extent.

The superstate worry is, in my view anyway, a reasonable assumption given the current trajectory. We clearly won't be part of it, but it's something the Eurozone will need to look more and more towards as the Euro flags. Integration through political and fiscal union is what will make EMU work. Where they move further towards a superstate, what position does the UK (and other non-EU countries) hold in negotiations? I would suggest not a particularly important one, and we'd be liable to be outvoted to an even greater degree.

I personally don't believe we should stop that integration either - that's clearly not fair on the Eurozone countries. So we either get involved or get out. And if it's the former, then the only logical position to adopt is to take on the Euro and Schengen.

[Lee]

There are probably a million laws that my constituency MP has voted against and lost. Indeed it's very likely as he is mental. That's democracy for you. Not everybody can get what they want. I think the EU is pretty democratic for what it is, although I'd favour more direct democracy for certain posts.

That said, I do think that the sovereignty argument is intellectually sound and strong, even if I disagree with it. I just find the idea that "THE EU!!!" just does things to us is odd. We are one of the most powerful parties in the EU and that we aren't more influential is a (legitimate) political choice.

I agree with your assessment on further integration but unlike you would just go all in. What I dislike is the implication from leave that we'll somehow be forced to integrate with the rest of Europe. It's deliberately dishonest. Another example of both sides being full of shit.

[Lewis]

I wonder how much this idea of the post-Brexit economic BLACK HOLE is resonating when we're still borrowing a gigantic sum of money every year. I can see why Vote Leave aren't making light of it, but I would have thought that must people can see that having to borrow an extra few billion won't mean having to close the NHS down and burn the pensions book.

[GS]

There are probably a million laws that my constituency MP has voted against and lost. Indeed it's very likely as he is mental. That's democracy for you. Not everybody can get what they want. I think the EU is pretty democratic for what it is, although I'd favour more direct democracy for certain posts.

That said, I do think that the sovereignty argument is intellectually sound and strong, even if I disagree with it. I just find the idea that "THE EU!!!" just does things to us is odd. We are one of the most powerful parties in the EU and that we aren't more influential is a (legitimate) political choice.

I agree with your assessment on further integration but unlike you would just go all in. What I dislike is the implication from leave that we'll somehow be forced to integrate with the rest of Europe. It's deliberately dishonest. Another example of both sides being full of shit.

Your MP has a direct democratic mandate from his constituents. If you think he's voting against laws that you like or for laws you dislike, you can take your ballot paper and put a tick beside somebody else's name. If enough people agree with you, he gets thrown out on his arse. That's democracy for you - not the EU as it exists today. If there was a genuine prospect of root and branch reform, one could be persuaded that the democratic deficit could be rectified - but I think even the most dedicated Europhile would accept that it's just not on the cards.

I also don't disagree on the point that the EU "just does things to us" - but clearly they're the parameters that I look at it from; that is, from the view of the UK. I'm not particularly interested what happens in Latvia, Poland or Greece. The primary concern of the UK government should be the UK, and if the EU is doing things we disagree with and that disadvantage us then that clearly doesn't work. The UK government is not accountable to the people of Lativa, Poland or Greece. Its first concern must be its own constituents.

On the final point, I think there is a clear problem with trust on both sides. Obviously I favour the Leave side's arguments, but the point I would make is that we've been repeatedly told time and time again that certain things "aren't going to happen" - and then they do. The Eurozone will integrate further. I don't believe we'll be involved in the continued 'pooling' of fiscal sovereignty for EMU, but I do think we'll be dragged into certain things that we don't want to be involved in. If the Italian banking sector collapses, I can't see anyway we won't be dragged in under Article 122 as it currently stands - yet that's nothing to do with us.

Leaving now is certainly a risk - but remaining is a much bigger one, because we're in a much weaker position to mitigate those risks.

[Lewis]

That something 'literally can't happen unless member states sign up to it' is great, but then you remember how all parties colluded to ram the Lisbon Treaty through and suddenly it doesn't mean much.

[Lee]

That something 'literally can't happen unless member states sign up to it' is great, but then you remember how all parties colluded to ram the Lisbon Treaty through and suddenly it doesn't mean much.

"All parties" included the elected government of the UK. We are also exempt from significant core EU principles because we wouldn't sign up.

[GS]

That something 'literally can't happen unless member states sign up to it' is great, but then you remember how all parties colluded to ram the Lisbon Treaty through and suddenly it doesn't mean much.

The EU Constitution / Lisbon was the final straw in terms of demonstrating the direction of travel.

It was rejected by the French (55:45) and the Dutch (62:38) in referenda. So they binned that off and repackaged it as the Lisbon Treaty. Gordon Brown then refused to hold a referendum on it because he knew he'd lose as it gave away our veto on a whole range of areas. All other countries, except Ireland, didn't bother having a referendum because they suspected they couldn't win. The Irish had to under their constitution and voted it down (53:47). Then they just held the referendum again until they reached the right answer.

That is the direction of travel. Major signed the Maastricht treaty and gave away powers, Blair gave away a whack of our rebate, Brown colluded with other EU governments to, to use Lewis' phrase, ram the Lisbon Treaty through.

It's an institution which is fundamentally anti-democratic. When people say things like "what I dislike is the implication from leave that we'll somehow be forced to integrate with the rest of Europe", you only have to look at what's happened before to realise that member states have repeatedly said certain things wouldn't happen - and then they did.

[GS]

"All parties" included the elected government of the UK. We are also exempt from significant core EU principles because we wouldn't sign up.

A Labour government that was elected on the basis of a clear manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on the constitution. The content of the constitution and the Lisbon Treaty was 90% the same, repackaged as it was as a direct result of the French and Dutch referenda. It was rejected by three member states, and the elected UK government broke a manifesto pledge to put it to the vote. It was, in its substance, a power grab by the EU.

Yes, the UK electorate punished Labour in 2010 - but we were not in a position to then repeal Lisbon at that point. The damage was done.

[Lee]

It's some stretch to say that Labour were elected on the basis of that manifesto pledge.

Why did no major political party subsequently stand on the basis of a pledge to repeal the Treaty or to abandon membership of the EU? Parliament is entitled to do so. That suggests a failure of UK democracy rather than an "EU power grab".

[GS]

It's some stretch to say that Labour were elected on the basis of that manifesto pledge.

Why did no major political party subsequently stand on the basis of a pledge to repeal the Treaty or to abandon membership of the EU? Parliament is entitled to do so. That suggests a failure of UK democracy rather than an "EU power grab".

I didn't say they were solely elected on that basis, but it did form part of their commitments in a programme for government.

No major political party could stand on the basis of a pledge to repeal the Lisbon Treaty because treaty change requires agreement of all 28 member states, and the other 27 aren't going to allow any British government to repeal existing treaty obligations - we would never, ever get unanimity. We signed up to a further transfer of power, and continued membership means acceptance of that irrespective of whether we agree with 1 percent, 10 percent or 100 percent of the treaty itself. A party may be entitled to campaign on a pledge to repeal it, but it would be wholly dishonest to do so because they could never implement that pledge once in government.

Again, this comes down to the fundamental issue of sovereignty and the ability of a state to self-govern. The fact is that whilst our elected representatives have signed up to Maastricht and Lisbon, they have done so without the direct consent of the people to those transfers of power to a 'foreign jurisdiction' (for lack of a better term). One can certainly make the argument that they hold a direct democratic mandate and we, their constituents, have ceded control of such decisions to them. As someone who advocates for the supremacy of parliament, that would certainly be a fair point to make.

However, I don't think that stacks up in this context. The European treaties, at their heart, require a fundamental transfer of power to Brussels and further erosion of the democratic sovereignty of our national structures - whether that be parliament or the courts interpreting UK law. By voting the treaties through in parliament, our MPs have effectively ceded control of vast areas of legislative power to Brussels. A vote for your MP today is 'worth' less than a vote for your MP fifty years ago, because your MP today has a much more limited scope of action and can influence significantly less aspects of the legislative process. In effect, they have limited the voters' ability to make decisions at the ballot box which impact their own lives.

That is not okay. It's certainly a failure of UK democracy - but the solution, to me, isn't to be defeatist and just accept that by meekly accepting the status quo. It's why I think if you have any doubts at all about the democratic nature of the EU, you can't vote to stay in. There's a clear direction of travel, and this is our one chance to say we're not going the same way.

As a side issue, I think one of the big stories from this campaign is the huge discrepancy that is building up between the views of the Labour party and the views of its wider base. UKIP are already the second party in the north, and many Labour seats (including Yvette Cooper's, apparently) are going to vote for Brexit. That sends a huge message which will, no doubt, be ignored.

[Lewis]

It's a bit like those arguments (which were great for annoying Harold) that because the BNP never won a general election then we all wanted mass immigration. They bring this stuff in, take the grief, and then carry on as normal and we go back to voting on Our NHS and whether or not the candidates can eat properly.

[Lee]

It's clearly not the case that the British are big Euro-enthusiasts but it isn't something we've been particularly exercised about either. People don't give a shit so long as they have some money.

[Boydy]

Interesting:

http://i64.tinypic.com/fyzfjn.jpg

[Lewis]

You can get any political project to work as long as the money doesn't dry up (which is why this is basically a class vote), but you're dealing with headcases at the European level. They're like the stiffs that used to run the Soviet Union, and they aren't going to stop until it all blows up in their faces.

[niko_cee]

"As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilisation in its entirety."

- Donald Tusk

:face:

[phonics]

Interesting:

http://i64.tinypic.com/fyzfjn.jpg

If Cardiff, Cornwall or Birmingham vote out (I think the latter will) will rankle with me considering the obscene amounts of EU money they've been pocketing down the years.

[Lee]

http://i68.tinypic.com/35bgs91.jpg

I don't really have an issue with a debate about security in all of this, but citing Orlando before family members even know their relatives are dead is a bit much,

[Pepe]

Is that poster real? Surely can't be.

[Lee]

It is.

[phonics]

And that bloke was an American so I'm not sure how cutting down on EU immigration will stop either foreign or native born Muslims from popping over.

[Davgooner]

Farage added: "They might also have AIDS."

[Lee]

And that bloke was an American so I'm not sure how cutting down on EU immigration will stop either foreign or native born Muslims from popping over.

The Tweet alongside it was about free movement of kalashnikovs rather than anything to do with immigration. How the fuck is somebody getting into the UK with kalashnikovs under current arrangements? Cunt's trick.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Donald Tusk has tried to one up them by declaring that a Leave vote could herald the end of western civilisation. Not even making that up.

[Lewis]

Leave.EU must secretly be run by Michael Heseltine.

[Disco]

Terribly worded too, can I have a job making shit up and not proofing it?

[Yevrah]

That poster. :sick:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Leave.EU are absolute retards. As Lewis said, it's hard to believe it's not an inside job.

Does Farage think the throne awaits in a post-Brexit universe?

[Lewis]

It has been suggested that he would quite like to lose (this time round) in the hope that UKIP benefit how the SNP have.

[Lee]

ICM phone poll has Leave ahead 53-47. Leave has to be the favourite now. I'm not really sure what Camerom has left in him.

[Lewis]

Labour have supposedly taken over the remain campaign, and lol (https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/742386941002457088) fucking hell lads what are you doing?

[Lee]

Fucking hell, just shit yourselves in public.

[Jimmy Floyd]

God it will be fucking hilarious if it's a Leave, even if we don't actually end up leaving.

Apparently Labour have been SHOCKED that everyone on northern doorsteps is a leave because of immigration. Come on, boys, pay attention. Even if people are wrong about immigration, which they mostly are, then that simply speaks to the fact that Andy Burnham patronises them and has allowed that perception to fester.

[Lee]

How often has momentum swung back the other way at this stage of a campaign? A second ICM phone poll in a row being comfortable Leave is enough to tell me where we are. I reckon it's done.

Still, despite the personal disappointment I'm going to enjoy the fall out. Probably in both major parties too. :drool:

[Magic]

I bet it's not and loads of people BOTTLE IT.

[Lewis]

How often has momentum swung back the other way at this stage of a campaign? A second ICM phone poll in a row being comfortable Leave is enough to tell me where we are. I reckon it's done.

Still, despite the personal disappointment I'm going to enjoy the fall out. Probably in both major parties too. :drool:

It will be more interesting to see what Labour do if we leave. The Conservatives can just butcher the leadership and crack on, but where do Labour go?

[Lee]

It will be more interesting to see what Labour do if we leave. The Conservatives can just butcher the leadership and crack on, but where do Labour go?

The issue Labour have under current rules is the members are going to keep electing mentalists. The normals will have to split. They won't though because they have no bottle.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If Boris becomes PM, say, then he and his crack team of revolutionaries (Rees-Mogg for the Foreign Office, please) will end up being the ones entrusted with sorting it all out, which realistically will mean tacking heavily to the centre ground, or staying where Dave is. That will keep Labour irrelevant until they get rid of Jezza, at which point it's up to them if they want to put someone decent in charge (if there is anyone) or carry on with the lol socialism.

[Boydy]

You can get odds of 2.78 for Leave on Betfair Exchange right now.

[GS]

That fucking poster. Christ alive.

I still reckon Remain are going to win - too many people will bottle it in the coming days. That Donald Tusk quote is a proper low, mind you. What the fuck does he think he's doing?

[Byron]

My favourite aspect was 'as a historian....'

Well as a fucking historian you should know that these things come and go. I don't like using the phrase empires, but Greece came and went, Rome, the Franks, the HRE, France etc. etc.

They all came and went and civilization did not crumble as a result. I suspect the EU is on the same trajectory.

[GS]

Labour have supposedly taken over the remain campaign, and lol (https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/742386941002457088) fucking hell lads what are you doing?

I don't even know where to start with that. Fucking hell.


God it will be fucking hilarious if it's a Leave, even if we don't actually end up leaving.

Apparently Labour have been SHOCKED that everyone on northern doorsteps is a leave because of immigration. Come on, boys, pay attention. Even if people are wrong about immigration, which they mostly are, then that simply speaks to the fact that Andy Burnham patronises them and has allowed that perception to fester.

Labour are finished, I think. They're finished in Scotland, they're struggling in Wales (which is apparently 50/50 in this too) and the north is voting for Brexit in a considerable minority. Where do they go from here? Even Yvette Cooper's seat is apparently going to vote to leave.

[Magic]

The pound us plummeting against the Euro. Should be almost 1:1 if we leave. Just in time for my holiday. :drool:

[phonics]

My favourite aspect was 'as a historian....'

Well as a fucking historian you should know that these things come and go. I don't like using the phrase empires, but Greece came and went, Rome, the Franks, the HRE, France etc. etc.

Those all ended up in massive wars/dictatorships... Each one of them took a hundred years or so to fix or just caused other wars...

[GS]

Those all ended up in massive wars/dictators...

It's a ludicrous comment to make, irrespective of anything else.

[phonics]

It's a ludicrous comment to make, irrespective of anything else.

Both comments are fucking ludicrous. It's the entire crux of this election. Nobody has made a salient point on the EU in about 45 years.

edit: Here's my salient point. Since the age of 16 I've lived through 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, a great depression, 2 killer pandemics, the reignition of the Cold War, domestic and foreign terrorism. Could you lot give me just five years where everything is just 'kind of alright'? It's all I ask. Can we have our 1990s please?

[GS]

The collapse of western civilisation.

What are the historic comparisons here? The fall of Romulus Augustulus? The fall of France in 1940?

[Magic]

Both comments are fucking ludicrous. It's the entire crux of this election. Nobody has made a salient point on the EU in about 45 years.

edit: Here's my salient point. Since the age of 16 I've lived through 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, a great depression, 2 killer pandemics, the reignition of the Cold War, domestic and foreign terrorism. Could you lot give me just five years where everything is just 'kind of alright'? It's all I ask. Can we have our 1990s please?

:D

Get a grip.

[phonics]

:D

Get a grip.

I'm really bored of everything being utter, utter shit.

[Lee]

Fucking hell, Gordon Brown is looking rough. Dead within two years.

EDIT: Hold on, Boris has been in Leicester and I've had a half day? Should have drove in and pissed on him.

[GS]

Fucking hell, Gordon Brown is looking rough. Dead within two years.

As part of his relaunch of the Remain campaign, he's taken the opportunity to have a right go at the Sun and the BBC and suggesting they have the same 'agenda'.

[phonics]

The collapse of western civilisation.

What are the historic comparisons here? The fall of Romulus Augustulus? The fall of France in 1940?

And you're comparing it to a comment that says everything worked out fine with the fall of the Holy Roman Empire and the French Revolution. Both are retarded. It literally doesn't matter which one is more retarded when they start at that level.

[GS]

And you're comparing it to a comment that says everything worked out fine with the fall of the Holy Roman Empire and the French Revolution. Both are retarded. It literally doesn't matter which one is more retarded when they start at that level.

I'm comparing it to nothing, actually.

I was considering Tusk's comment in isolation and trying to think what other events brought about the supposed collapse of western 'political' civilisation. What about the Black Death - can we count that?

[Lee]

Leave phonics alone, he's been through too much already ffs.

[Lee]

Ed Balls is now calling for Europe to restore 'proper border controls'. FOR FUCK'S SAKE.

[GS]

Ed Balls is now calling for Europe to restore 'proper border controls'. FOR FUCK'S SAKE.

They're actually finished, aren't they.

Then again, that might work because a fair number of people probably have no idea.

[Lewis]

The Black Death was great for the workers that survived it. I can't see that one playing well on the doorstep.

[Lee]

They're just windmilling now. I think the Leave campaign has been a disgrace but at least it has looked like a campaign. Remain have been all over the place.

This isn't a strong statement from me given that I haven't voted for them since 2005, but if we leave I'll not vote for Labour again in my life. There is a positive argument to be made for remaining in the EU but given Tory history on the issue I can see why Cameron isn't able to go all out for it. He has to be a reluctant remainer. But Labour have been the mainstream Europhile party for as long as I've had any sort of awareness of politics and they basically haven't tried. Utter cunts.

[Yevrah]

Should I have had a polling card through by now?

[Yevrah]

They're just windmilling now. I think the Leave campaign has been a disgrace but at least it has looked like a campaign. Remain have been all over the place.

This isn't a strong statement from me given that I haven't voted for them since 2005, but if we leave I'll not vote for Labour again in my life. There is a positive argument to be made for remaining in the EU but given Tory history on the issue I can see why Cameron isn't able to go all out for it. He has to be a reluctant remainer. But Labour have been the mainstream Europhile party for as long as I've had any sort of awareness of politics and they basically haven't tried. Utter cunts.

Isn't that mostly down to Corbyn not actually believing in it? And if so, why would you write off the next 50+ years voting for a party because they were once led by a complete twonk?

[Lee]

Should I have had a polling card through by now?

Got mine a few weeks back now, but you can vote without one anyway. I don't think there's a reason for you not to be registered unless you've moved since you last voted. Worth checking though.

EDIT: Actually, as you're voting out and I'm in full shitting my pants mode, don't check. Just turn up and see how it goes on the day, yeah mate?

[Byron]

Definitely. I've had mine about two weeks.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Should I have had a polling card through by now?

I've had one.

[Yevrah]

Got mine a few weeks back now, but you can vote without one anyway. I don't think there's a reason for you not to be registered unless you've moved since you last voted. Worth checking though.

EDIT: Actually, as you're voting out and I'm in full shitting my pants mode, don't check. Just turn up and see how it goes on the day, yeah mate?

I don't think we'll actually leave with a leave majority vote anyway, so don't worry.

[Lee]

Isn't that mostly down to Corbyn not actually believing in it? And if so, why would you write off the next 50+ years voting for a party because they were once led by a complete twonk?

I'm a Lib Dem anyway. Well, going in my voting record I am. I'm not paying to be a member. But it's a big issue. Well known Tories have campaigned at odds with the stance of their leader so there's no reason why senior Labour people couldn't have been a bit more enthusiastic than the spacker in charge. They're sitting back hoping he blows up after the referendum. Party politics is taking precedence for them. Fair enough, they're probably nowhere near as bothered about Europe as I am.

And 50+ years? You're optimistic.

[Yevrah]

Hmmm, I've probably binned mine then. Mrs Yev used to take care of the post (properly).

[Lee]

I don't think we'll actually leave with a leave majority vote anyway, so don't worry.

Really? Even given where I stand on the issue I'd be fucking disgusted if we didn't.

I can see us going for a worst of all worlds option though. EEA, remain in the single market and perhaps get some sort of immigration delay for a few years but nothing more. The new government will justify it on the basis of it being close enough not to want to piss off the large proportion of people who voted to stop in. Nobody wins.

[niko_cee]

Hmmm, I've probably binned mine then. Mrs Yev used to take care of the post (properly).

You've probably already voted to remain. Several times.

[Magic]

I'm really bored of everything being utter, utter shit.

Mate this is the most peaceful it's been. Calm down.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Sun has backed Leave.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck3CZgFWEAAlcr1.jpg

[GS]

742460485279358976

742461683138973696

[Lee]

ORB want to be judge on the 49-44 Remain:Leave figure rather than the one posted above, but it's still a drop from a 12 point lead last week.

This is done.

[GS]

ORB want to be judge on the 49-44 Remain:Leave figure rather than the one posted above, but it's still a drop from a 12 point lead last week.

This is done.

Which one is the 49-44 for Remain?

[Lee]

Which one is the 49-44 for Remain?

The one you've quoted for ORB is based on people certain for vote. The 49:44 is based on all respondents.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm trying to think, when did the Sun last back the losing side in anything? They tend to wait until it's wrapped up and then back the winner. And they are much smarter than all other papers combined, especially the broadsheets.

[GS]

The one you've quoted for ORB is based on people certain for vote. The 49:44 is based on all respondents.

Ah, fair enough. I just saw the headline figures above, I didn't delve too much further into it.

[Lee]

Ah, fair enough. I just saw the headline figures above, I didn't delve too much further into it.

Even that is shit for Remain from a phone poll. I genuinely don't see what Remain can do now to halt this momentum. I can see that some voters will bottle it on the day, and that some won't turn up at all. But it looks like the undecideds are breaking for Leave now and they won't all stay away.

[Lewis]

Polly Toynbee wrote a spectacular article (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/brexit-supporters-leave-vote-right) today about her encounters with the plebs. Basically, she spent an unproductive day on the Labour In phones, and now she's having 1933 flashbacks.

[GS]

I think there are plenty of shy Remainers about who might well say Leave in pols because "patriotism" - but they'll vote Remain and feel ashamed about it for a couple of days.

[Lee]

Polly Toynbee wrote a spectacular article (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/brexit-supporters-leave-vote-right) today about her encounters with the plebs. Basically, she spent an unproductive day on the Labour In phones, and now she's having 1933 flashbacks.

I read that earlier. She's just a massive arsehole.

[Lee]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/jeremy-corbyn-to-flex-labours-muscles-in-eu-referendum-debate

Oh fuck. :D

[Magic]

Silent majority.

I also just found out Turkish public opinion on the EU is overwhelmingy no thanks.

[Magic]

Cameron. :sick:

What a spineless embarrassment of a leader. He should resign after this.

[GS]

Polly Toynbee wrote a spectacular article (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/brexit-supporters-leave-vote-right) today about her encounters with the plebs. Basically, she spent an unproductive day on the Labour In phones, and now she's having 1933 flashbacks.

Labour grandees genuinely hate their own base.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That article is special and illustrates better than anything ever could why the British left is stone cold dead.

Get Tony on the phone banks.

[Lewis]

She hasn't really been relevant since about 2011, and I doubt she even knows what a non-binary is. How is she meant to compete with the outrage crowd?

[GS]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/jeremy-corbyn-to-flex-labours-muscles-in-eu-referendum-debate

Oh fuck. :D

Labour 'colluding' with the Tories to stitch up the referendum vote will be the takeaway for many from that. They'll never be forgiven in some of their supposed heartlands for this given the apparent strength of Brexit feeling. If it's 51-49 Remain, Labour could get wiped in the north in 2020.

[GS]

742471554752229376

The Lib Dem percentage looks much too small there.

[Boydy]

Polly Toynbee wrote a spectacular article (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/brexit-supporters-leave-vote-right) today about her encounters with the plebs. Basically, she spent an unproductive day on the Labour In phones, and now she's having 1933 flashbacks.

:D

[Yevrah]

I'm trying to think, when did the Sun last back the losing side in anything?

Hillsborough probably, and even that took 30 years.

[Jimmy Floyd]

742471554752229376

The Lib Dem percentage looks much too small there.

Two of the three? Sounds about right.

[Yevrah]

Glad I booked the next day off now, this is bubbling up nicely. :drool:

[GS]

YouGov Times - the generational schism
% remain

All: 46%

18-24: 75%
25-49: 50%
50-64: 38%
65+:34%

Times / YouGov - the class divide
% for remain

All: 46%

ABC1: 53%
C2DE: 35%

Times / YouGov - Leave winning amongst women voters too now

Remain vote %:
All - 46
Men - 44
Women - 47

[Yevrah]

Christ, if Leave have convinced Mumsnet then we might as well put a fork in it.

[Lee]

Fucking bitches.

That seems quite low for ABC1s based on what I've seen elsewhere. I basically need poor people not to vote.

GS/Boydy - fancy selling me an Irish passport?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Some are saying the sociological turnout divide could save Remain, but the age one will fuck them over a lot more. How many of those 18-24 year olds will vote?

[Lee]

They probably don't even know there's an election happening.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was watching some decent level club cricket at the weekend and one of the teams walked out onto the field in their whites at the start discussing the fucking EU referendum. They were all for remain as well, and ripping it out of one of their team mates because he liked Farage.

I think it's cut through everything and turnout will be quite high.

[Yevrah]

11 hours of Dimbleby.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h0zcc

:drool:

Brillo had better be involved in some capacity, but at least it's not that appalling Welshman.

[Yevrah]

And then 27 minutes with Nick Robinson 24 hours later to analyse what the results will mean for Britain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07hpmnr

Sums it up really.

[GS]

I was watching some decent level club cricket at the weekend and one of the teams walked out onto the field in their whites at the start discussing the fucking EU referendum. They were all for remain as well, and ripping it out of one of their team mates because he liked Farage.

I think it's cut through everything and turnout will be quite high.

I expect turnout will be much higher than has been suggested. That should help Remain, really, as that will mean younger voters are out in droves.

[Lewis]

The belief is that leave wins on a shit turn-out, remain wins on a decent turn-out, and then leave wins on a good turn-out because all the 'non-voters' pull themselves away from whatever racism they normally do on Thursday afternoons and ruin it for everyone.

[Lee]

I read a piece by Yanis Varoufakis last night that almost got me going for leave. The treatment of the elected Greek government was fucking appalling. I want to stay in on the basis that it can be made better and that we are far better placed to influence that from the inside, as well as the stuff I've posted previously about feeling European above all - but none of that changes regardless of whether or not we are part of a political bloc.

But I guess if we stay in the people who run the UK aren't really interested in turning it into what I'd like to see, which is a transparent democratic federal arrangement. In many ways it's daft. Emotionally I'm very much for in, for reasons I've gone into before. But if we do leave, as now seems likely, what difference is it going to make to me, really? Fuck all would be my guess.

I can't lie though, I'm going to be gutted, even though that's irrational. It will be the death in this country of an ideal I've wanted to see realised more than anything else in politics. It was always bloody unlikely anyway, but it won't be nice to have it confirmed as dead.

[Lee]

11 hours of Dimbleby.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h0zcc

:drool:

Brillo had better be involved in some capacity, but at least it's not that appalling Welshman.


I've not had the foresight to book the Friday off. I'm going to be fucked.

[GS]

I read a piece by Yanis Varoufakis last night that almost got me going for leave. The treatment of the elected Greek government was fucking appalling. I want to stay in on the basis that it can be made better and that we are far better placed to influence that from the inside, as well as the stuff I've posted previously about feeling European above all - but none of that changes regardless of whether or not we are part of a political bloc.

But I guess if we stay in the people who run the UK aren't really interested in turning it into what I'd like to see, which is a transparent democratic federal arrangement. In many ways it's daft. Emotionally I'm very much for in, for reasons I've gone into before. But if we do leave, as now seems likely, what difference is it going to make to me, really? Fuck all would be my guess.

I can't lie though, I'm going to be gutted, even though that's irrational. It will be the death in this country of an ideal I've wanted to see realised more than anything else in politics. It was always bloody unlikely anyway, but it won't be nice to have it confirmed as dead.

Whatever your views on the referendum, the treatment of Greece is an appalling black mark against the EU. There was genuine talk a few months ago of throwing them out of Schengen (temporarily, apparently) so they could effectively be used a massive transit camp for refugees from Turkey. Something like 72% of people in Greece have an unfavourable view of the EU, the only surprise in that statistic being that it's not 100%.

[Lee]

Whatever your views on the referendum, the treatment of Greece is an appalling black mark against the EU. There was genuine talk a few months ago of throwing them out of Schengen (temporarily, apparently) so they could effectively be used a massive transit camp for refugees from Turkey. Something like 72% of people in Greece have an unfavourable view of the EU, the only surprise in that statistic being that it's not 100%.

The was a quote from Schauble which I can't remember verbatim but was a long the lines of "elections can't change our rules". He said it directly to Varoufakis. Sinister.

I'm not in love with the EU - although I do think that some of the criticisms of it are at least exaggerated - but I do think it could be something really brilliant. I'd rather us not chuck the opportunity to be a part of that.

[GS]

The was a quote from Schauble which I can't remember verbatim but was a long the lines of "elections can't change our rules". He said it directly to Varoufakis. Sinister.

I'm not in love with the EU - although I do think that some of the criticisms of it are at least exaggerated - but I do think it could be something really brilliant. I'd rather us not chuck the opportunity to be a part of that.

That attitude isn't the exception, unfortunately - it has clear rules, processes and structures and there's simply not the willingness to change them to anywhere near the extent you'd need. It's a perfectly valid view to say you want to stay in irrespective of its problems, but I think you get into real intellectual difficulties when you talk about staying in to reform it from the inside.

[Lee]

That attitude isn't the exception, unfortunately - it has clear rules, processes and structures and there's simply not the willingness to change them to anywhere near the extent you'd need. It's a perfectly valid view to say you want to stay in irrespective of its problems, but I think you get into real intellectual difficulties when you talk about staying in to reform it from the inside.

The EU and its predecessors has slowly democratised throughout its history. Much too slowly, I'll acknowledge, but it jas done so nevertheless. The institutions themselves are actually pretty well designed for democratic process but clearly there are individuals at the centre of it all who undermine that.

I don't think it's intellectually dishonest to believe that it can be reformed and that reform can be advanced more effectively through participation. It disappoints me that UK governments tend not to participate as deeply as our influnce would allow. Nor do I suppose that reforming the EU would be a simple thing to do. There's a reason why democratisation has been slow.

I'm not one who believes the country is in the shit if we leave. We'll be fine. Just as I remain certain that Scotland would have been fine had they chosen to secede. It just isn't my preferred political direction. I do think it silly to risk some of the practical perks we get from membership and I would hope that opponents of the EU acknowledge that it isn't all bad. Stuff like the right to study, work and settle elsewhere in Europe are really great and I find it disappointing that we might be about to deny some of my younger relatives the opportunities I've had avaialble to me, even if circumstances have meant that I haven't done so.

[GS]

The EU and its predecessors has slowly democratised throughout its history. Much too slowly, I'll acknowledge, but it jas done so nevertheless. The institutions themselves are actually pretty well designed for democratic process but clearly there are individuals at the centre of it all who undermine that.

I don't think it's intellectually dishonest to believe that it can be reformed and that reform can be advanced more effectively through participation. It disappoints me that UK governments tend not to participate as deeply as our influnce would allow. Nor do I suppose that reforming the EU would be a simple thing to do. There's a reason why democratisation has been slow.

I'm not one who believes the country is in the shit if we leave. We'll be fine. Just as I remain certain that Scotland would have been fine had they chosen to secede. It just isn't my preferred political direction. I do think it silly to risk some of the practical perks we get from membership and I would hope that opponents of the EU acknowledge that it isn't all bad. Stuff like the right to study, work and settle elsewhere in Europe are really great and I find it disappointing that we might be about to deny some of my younger relatives the opportunities I've had avaialble to me, even if circumstances have meant that I haven't done so.

There are some positives to it, but I always come back to what I believe is the slow erosion of our democracy (amongst many other obvious problems like the democratic deficit and supremacy of EU laws and the ECJ). I just don't think that's a price worth paying, because we'll wake up in forty years time and find there's almost no point in having a national parliament anymore. When we joined the EEC originally, you'd never have thought you were voting for a situation where, in forty years' time, your MP would be able to influence far less areas of public life and the legislative process because those decisions had been outsourced.

There's no evidence at all to suggest the EU can reform itself or would even be willing to do so. Our opportunity for reform was before the vote - we'll get nothing if we vote Remain because it'll be taken as a rubber stamping of everything that's gone before and forgotten thereafter in Brussels. That's what they do.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The thing about Europe is that ultimately we're an island and we don't have the folk memory that the likes of Belgium have about the Germans rolling across the Ardennes every 25 years. That's what sets us apart from the continental lot.

[Lewis]

I was watching this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4OWslOroaw) again earlier. Playing for penalties.

'You're saying that this is a kind of Munich?'
'Yes, I am.'
'Oh. I see.'

:cool:

[Lee]

The thing about Europe is that ultimately we're an island and we don't have the folk memory that the likes of Belgium have about the Germans rolling across the Ardennes every 25 years. That's what sets us apart from the continental lot.

I think that's basically it. I realise I'm in a tiny minority of British people who would call themselves European first. I blame the old man, but it's there now.

It would be interesting (to me anyway) to know if other islanders in Europe feel the same distance from the mainland. There must be something written on it. I always find it odd when British people don't acknowledge being European at all. It's geographically indisputable. I know that's not the same as being engaged in it culturally, but still.

[phonics]

"The EU doesn't let us do what we want it's unconstitutional!"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/14/uk-can-refuse-benefits-to-unemployed-eu-migrants-judges-rule?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews

"Shit"

[Bartholomert]

The American media seem to think that Leave are currently ahead, is this just wishful thinking from conservatives?

[Jimmy Floyd]

They seem to be inching ahead at the moment, but I'd expect a bit of a late swing to Remain. I'd put it at about 50/50 currently.

Isabel Hardman makes a good point this morning, that Leave have owned the agenda since purdah started and the government couldn't use all the tools that they have.

[Lee]

The thing I'm going to find most interesting about this is Cameron's reaction. Has he ever lost at anything in his life? I can imagine him doing his best to cling on.

His electoral credibility is absolutely shot. Amazing how things can change in just a year.

[Shindig]

I wouldn't mind seeing some emigration figures. The most recent one I could spot was a 2014 one from the Guardian citing 323,000.

[Lee]

Immigration is higher than the government is willing to admit and there is no doubt that the poorest suffer most from it. That's why many will vote leave and I can't really blame them.

My own view is that the government should plan effectively for it and ensure services can cope with it rather than just calling immigration bad, but it's easy to say that when the immigration I see is Portuguese nurses and the Spamisg couple who have just opened a tapas bar in town. The refusal of major political parties to acknowledge it as an issue is a major factor behind us being so close to leaving the EU.

Labour in particular ought to be ashamed. It has been some time now since I could be considered a natural Labour voter so it's not self-pity that has me believing that they've let their core down very badly. The liberal left have hijacked a party that was never meant to be for them.

EDIT: sorry, misread emigration as immigration. I think emigration was down this year which is why net migration has gone up.

[Lewis]

I reckon Cameron would go reasonably quietly if he loses. It's Osborne that won't. He's spent the best part of a decade building his base, he doesn't have any sort of legacy (Cameron at least saw the Jocks off and won a majority), and he will get most of the blame.

[phonics]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck6ApfeXEAAAG36.jpg:large

lol

[Disco]

Quite apart from the fact that they're just a campaigning group and don't get to set policy.

[phonics]

I'm just wondering where this Conservative want for throwing money at stuff has come from.

[Lewis]

Tom Watson sez: 'I think what we have to reassure people is that if they vote remain on Thursday June 23, that isn’t the end of the reform package for Europe. I think a future Europe will have to look at things like the free movement of labour rules'.

Yeah definitely mate yeah.

[Lee]

TNS now has leave 7 ahead, up from 2 last week. It's happening.

Watson and co can fuck off. Talk about hypocrisy.

[Yevrah]

Anyone thinking we're going to get any change from within and voting for remain on that basis is delusional.

If you're happy or not that bothered with how it is now then fine, remain should be your vote, but if you're not then it has to be a leave.

[Magic]

I'm just a selfish cunt and can't be bothered with shit getting worse before it gets better or dealing with short term financial implications. Fuck that.

[Lewis]

It also makes you wonder why they're wasting their time with Europe when they could be in Syria reforming the Islamic State from within.

[Magic]

I'm not sure Islamic State needs reform, to be honest.

[Lewis]

I'm just a selfish cunt and can't be bothered with shit getting worse before it gets better or dealing with short term financial implications. Fuck that.

Relationship Thread.

[Davgooner]

I reckon this is pretty much sewn up. :(

[Magic]

Relationship Thread.

Oh you dirty animal. :D

[Lee]

Anyone thinking we're going to get any change from within and voting for remain on that basis is delusional.

If you're happy or not that bothered with how it is now then fine, remain should be your vote, but if you're not then it has to be a leave.

Depends what you mean by "change". If by that you mean a better deal for the UK then I agree. If by "change" you mean it can work better then I don't as it has consistently changed throughout its history. Whether that change is good or not is clearly subjective.

My stance is that, on balance, it's already very good, but that it can improve on stuff like democracy and that history suggests that it will do so, albeit slowly.

It looks done now which is a massive shame in my view, but such is life. I'll be a bit pissed off if Leicester winning the league means I'll never get my way on anything ever again.

[Pepe]

What is 'done now?'

[Lee]

What is 'done now?'

We're leaving the EU.