The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[Pepe]

Well, lol.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's far from done, although Remain have gone full Yes2AV this week so it's looking a bit bleak.

They've made the classic referendum mistake of appealing to FAHCTS and not emotions.

[Pepe]

Is it all 'we're afraid of immigrants, close the borders!' fueled?

[phonics]

That and curvy cucumbers. It's retarded.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah, I'd say so. There is also a bit of *whatever Lewis thinks*, but among the masses it's the former.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That and curvy cucumbers. It's retarded.

What you and your brethren have to be asking yourselves is why do they think that?

[niko_cee]

Still think the vote will be to remain, probably with the jocks swinging it, which will be all sorts of lol. The aftermath of a vote to leave will be genuinely fascinating though, particularly from our apparatchik overlords. If it is to be out, where does this rate in the history of gross political misjudgments (on the part of Dave & Co)? It has to be right up there.

[Lee]

Still think the vote will be to remain, probably with the jocks swinging it, which will be all sorts of lol. The aftermath of a vote to leave will be genuinely fascinating though, particularly from our apparatchik overlords. If it is to be out, where does this rate in the history of gross political misjudgments (on the part of Dave & Co)? It has to be right up there.

I've seen a couple of polls,woth SNP voters moving in favour of leave, which came as a bit of a surprise. The evidence all points to a leave win now. I just don't see what Remain can do to stop it now. You'd think they'd have something planned as we enter the final week, but people are past listening to them.

[Disco]

Is it all 'we're afraid of immigrants, close the borders!' fueled?

Not for me, I don't see immigration as a negative thing and I don't dislike brown people. I'm leaning towards Leave as, in short, we aren't part of the Eurozone and don't want to be so what's the point. The idea of closer ties with Europe and being part of a larger community is not inherently a bad one I just don't think this version is a very good one.

Edit: Plus it'll be great telly if we leave.

[niko_cee]

Massive electoral fraud.

That or Juncker delivering a Churcillian defence of 'The Union'.

[Pepe]

Not for me, I don't see immigration as a negative thing and I don't dislike brown people. I'm leaning towards Leave as, in short, we aren't part of the Eurozone and don't want to be so what's the point. The idea of closer ties with Europe and being part of a larger community is not inherently a bad one I just don't think this version is a very good one.

Edit: Plus it'll be great telly if we leave.

I'm sure there are good arguments to be made towards leaving, I was just wondering if the main driver is immigration or if there is something else.

Agreed on the spectacle. Will be interesting to see what happens for sure.

[Shindig]

The only poll that matters is the one at the top of this thread. :uhoh:

[Disco]

I'm sure there are good arguments to be made towards leaving, I was just wondering if the main driver is immigration or if there is something else.

Agreed on the spectacle. Will be interesting to see what happens for sure.

I'd imagine lots of people, when asked, would be unable to think of anything outside of immigration and how much it costs. While some are clearly stupid/racist both campaigns have been an abject failure when it comes to actually informing people.

[Pepe]

While some are clearly stupid/racist both campaigns have been an abject failure when it comes to actually informing people.

Am I correct in thinking that no one has any clue what will happen either way?

[Disco]

Am I correct in thinking that no one has any clue what will happen either way?

It's all speculation, particularly with regard to leaving.

[Lee]

Remain are bringing Juncker over to campaign. :facepalm:

[niko_cee]

:D

The ultimate indignity.

Get him on with Brillo.

[Magic]

Why have these remain campaigns been so disastrous? The independence referendum was a dream in 2014 then thanks to a clusterfuck campaign it almost became reality. Now the same is happening. Why didn't they learn from the former?

[Disco]

Is everyone ever a total moron? That's so obviously a terrible idea.

[niko_cee]

It's his sovereign right.

[Lee]

Why have these remain campaigns been so disastrous? The independence referendum was a dream in 2014 then thanks to a clusterfuck campaign it almost became reality. Now the same is happening. Why didn't they learn from the former?

Floyd was right when he posted about emotion trumping fact. There was an emotional basis to the No campaign, as well as a bit of FEAR.

The FEAR for won't work for REMAIN because nobody feels emotionally attached to the EU.

[Cord]

Why have these remain campaigns been so disastrous? The independence referendum was a dream in 2014 then thanks to a clusterfuck campaign it almost became reality. Now the same is happening. Why didn't they learn from the former?

Probably just that having to say 'everything is fine as it is really' is not an eye-catching or inspiring argument in the slightest. Not when the other side can bang on about the grass being so much greener without there being any experience of what it would actually be like. Add in that being negative seems to be out of vogue, and remain doesn't really have a lot to say. You're basically just hoping that enough people are already entrenched enough that they can't be tempted to vote out, which was probably always a reasonably safe bet with Scotland, but definitely not with the EU.

[Lewis]

We got a plush Labour In leaflet today that folds out into a map of Britain with reasons to stay. Did you know that 67% of manufacturing jobs in the North East are linked with exports to the EU? I didn't. What I would like to know is how and why your massive leaflet doesn't mention immigration once.

[Lee]

Because it's not a racist leaflet, silly.

[GS]

"The EU doesn't let us do what we want it's unconstitutional!"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/14/uk-can-refuse-benefits-to-unemployed-eu-migrants-judges-rule?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews

"Shit"

You realise that the story itself only draws attention to the fact that European courts enjoy supremacy over the UK, of course. Even though they rejected the Commission's case, it reinforces the narrative that we're not in control of our own laws. Either way, it brings the issue to the front again. It's much like that £350m. It's clearly not accurate, but when you're discussing whether it's £350m a week or £175m a week, it just draws attention to the fact it's a huge fuck off sum of money.

If they'd had any sense, they'd have postponed the judgement for two weeks.


TNS now has leave 7 ahead, up from 2 last week. It's happening.

Watson and co can fuck off. Talk about hypocrisy.

Labour attempting to regain ground by suggesting that the free movement of people is negotiable inside the EU is a farce. It's just outright bare-faced deception.


Is it all 'we're afraid of immigrants, close the borders!' fueled?

It is for some people. I'm voting out for sovereignty reasons, as I've outlined many times before. But immigration has been a major concern here for years, it's been bubbling under the surface and it's raced to the front here. It's not so much that it happens, it's that the major political parties simply ignored it as an issue and when Labour, in particular, were questioned about it they dismissed the concerns as 'parochial' (at best) or xenophobic / racist (at worst).

Labour are reaping what they sowed here, unfortunately. As Lee says, they've been 'taken over' by your sort of liberal intellectual elite who's only ever worked in politics or in other cushy jobs and thinks they know how to save the world. Clement Attlee fought at Gallipoli and was a social worker in the slums of the East End. The contrast to modern day Labour politicians is stark.


Remain are bringing Juncker over to campaign. :facepalm:

They wouldn't be that stupid, surely.


Probably just that having to say 'everything is fine as it is really' is not an eye-catching or inspiring argument in the slightest. Not when the other side can bang on about the grass being so much greener without there being any experience of what it would actually be like. Add in that being negative seems to be out of vogue, and remain doesn't really have a lot to say. You're basically just hoping that enough people are already entrenched enough that they can't be tempted to vote out, which was probably always a reasonably safe bet with Scotland, but definitely not with the EU.

Remain don't have a tremendously powerful argument that resonates. "Taking back control" is quite a powerful campaign message, irrespective of the other side's shortcomings. There's also absolutely no emotional connection to the EU to fall back on. Whatever the SNP's views, there was still clearly a strong sense of "Britishness" amongst enough of the Scots who voted to reject the idea of ending the union.

[Spoonsky]

It's only just occurred to me that the referendum is right in the middle of the football Euros. Surely game, set and match to Remain. It's like having a tennis referendum on the middle Saturday of Wimbledon.

I wonder how much of this will be nullified by the violence and fuckery thus far.

[Lee]

There's a Vote Leave broadcast on (the first I've seen from either side) and I was thinking how well done it was. Then the NHS section started and I've just had a piss on my TV screen.

[GS]

Appealing to "our NHS" should really be outlawed as a campaign tactic.

[niko_cee]

I saw one of those Vote leave things on Channel 5 before the cricket the other night. I don't know if it was a broadcast error, but it just seemed to loop the same few messages continuously for about 5 minutes. It was weird.

[Lewis]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/tom-watson-eu-freedom-movement-may-need-reform


Downing Street is considering a last-ditch attempt to revisit a deal on the free movement of workers before next week’s EU referendum, either by making a unilateral statement of intent or securing an understanding from European leaders that the issue can be examined under the UK presidency next year.

This will all add to the MELTDOWN.

[Lee]

Such a shambles. :D

[Baz]

The poll is 20-20 atm

[GS]

742824109680254976

This isn't sewn up in any way whatsoever.

[Lee]

ComRes are good as well. The shift is bad for Remain but polls do tend to overstate the change option in referenda. We'll see, but I'm slightly happier for that and I think Remain would take any lead given the last couple of days.

Allegiances aside, next Thursday night is going to be compelling viewing. It's tight as. I'm going to be a mess at work the following day.

[GS]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/tom-watson-eu-freedom-movement-may-need-reform

This will all add to the MELTDOWN.

I quite like the bits at the end that basically have various unnamed Eurocrats slapping the idea down. Quite apt, really.

I still suspect Remain will edge it - too many people will bottle it on the day. It's quite easy to say leave to a pollster.

[Shindig]

I still don't understand how this advert thinks being outside the EU will influence hospital waiting rooms. Are all those extra patients dead before arrival? Is this the Britain we want?

[GS]

ComRes are good as well. The shift is bad for Remain but polls do tend to overstate the change option in referenda. We'll see, but I'm slightly happier for that and I think Remain would take any lead given the last couple of days.

Allegiances aside, next Thursday night is going to be compelling viewing. I'm going to be a mess at work the following day.

Agreed. There's a clear trend towards leave, but certainly not enough that you can say they have a clear and unassailable lead. Given the late swing back to the status quo you tend to get, plus remain voters turning out in droves if they realise they might not win, you'd expect them to win.

Then again, you have to question how accurate the polling can be. It's not like they have results from the last election cycle to compare swings etc. against.

[Lee]

I quite like the bits at the end that basically have various unnamed Eurocrats slapping the idea down. Quite apt, really.

I still suspect Remain will edge it - too many people will bottle it on the day. It's quite easy to say leave to a pollster.

It's too late for the immigration stuff. Nobody believes it from Remain. Osborne is all over tomorrow's front pages threatening more austerity and tax rises if we leave. Dirty tactics really, but I could see the prospect of tax hikes resonating if the message is delivered properly.

[GS]

I still don't understand how this advert thinks being outside the EU will influence hospital waiting rooms. Are all those extra patients dead before arrival? Is this the Britain we want?

Which side is it even for?

[GS]

It's too late for the immigration stuff. Nobody believes it from Remain. Osborne is all over tomorrow's front pages threatening more austerity and tax rises if we leave. Dirty tactics really, but I could see the prospect of tax hikes resonating if the message is delivered properly.

Remain have no arguments that resonate apart from financial ones. The idea of "staying in" to reform it from the inside is the sort of airy-fairy abstract thinking that everyone who doesn't already agree with you is going to ignore. They simply can't win on either the immigration or sovereignty points, so financial is all they have. You can't make a positive case for it either, because it feels intangible and distant to far too many people - so FEAR it is.

Osborne is a right bastard, mind you. If Remain edge it by, say, 52-48, it's going to be impossible to keep the lid on it. Too many people are going to be too angry about the way he and Cameron conducted themselves and one suspects you'll have disputes and challenges over things like that fucking booklet and the voter deadline extension. The Tory backbenchers (outside a core group of 30-40 odd Major-esque bastards) would probably have been quite happy to leave it if it was, say, 55-45 and they never had a realistic chance of winning. Now they probably think they could do it, and if it's 'snatched away' they're going to make Osborne and Cameron's life miserable. The pair of them are finished, irrespective of the result.

I think Labour are also in serious danger of getting wiped in the north at the next election, which could be before 2020 at this rate.

[Lee]

Agreed. There's a clear trend towards leave, but certainly not enough that you can say they have a clear and unassailable lead. Given the late swing back to the status quo you tend to get, plus remain voters turning out in droves if they realise they might not win, you'd expect them to win.

Then again, you have to question how accurate the polling can be. It's not like they have results from the last election cycle to compare swings etc. against.

The phone polls last year herded towards the online consensus, before it turned out that earlier phone polls had been closer to the result all along. That might not be what's happening here - Opinium online got the London result in May bang on, for instance - but it is interesting that phone poll findings are heading towards online values again.

Looking at the AV and Scottish referenda polls it does look as though telephone polling was more accurate, which you'd have to say favours Remain. But I don't know how possible it is to compare single issue votes.

[Lee]

Which side is it even for?

It's for Leave and it's appalling. It was actually quite persuasive until they juxtaposed an empty ED waiting room after Leave against a jam packed one with a Remain vote.

[Shindig]

I'm guessing it's Leave as they assume hospital waiting rooms with slight queues. At no point in this where anybody in desperate need for attention or anything so I'm thinking the point there were making was, "Less immigrants, less queues, eh?"

At no point do they tell us how this queue-topia will be achieved. Are there more doctors? More health centres? Are we just not phoning 111 every five minutes because of Brussels-related anxiety?

[GS]

It's for Leave and it's appalling. It was actually quite persuasive until they juxtaposed an empty ED waiting room after Leave against a jam packed one with a Remain vote.

As I said before, invocation of "our NHS" should be banned from the political discourse. You can't talk about doctors without prefixing it with "our fantastic". I blame Tony Blair, the cunt.

Chilcot is out at the beginning of July - that'll be another 'major' political story when Jezza no doubt demands that Blair stand trial.

[Lee]

Remain have no arguments that resonate apart from financial ones. The idea of "staying in" to reform it from the inside is the sort of airy-fairy abstract thinking that everyone who doesn't already agree with you is going to ignore. They simply can't win on either the immigration or sovereignty points, so financial is all they have. You can't make a positive case for it either, because it feels intangible and distant to far too many people - so FEAR it is.

Osborne is a right bastard, mind you. If Remain edge it by, say, 52-48, it's going to be impossible to keep the lid on it. Too many people are going to be too angry about the way he and Cameron conducted themselves and one suspects you'll have disputes and challenges over things like that fucking booklet and the voter deadline extension. The Tory backbenchers (outside a core group of 30-40 odd Major-esque bastards) would probably have been quite happy to leave it if it was, say, 55-45 and they never had a realistic chance of winning. Now they probably think they could do it, and if it's 'snatched away' they're going to make Osborne and Cameron's life miserable. The pair of them are finished, irrespective of the result.

I think Labour are also in serious danger of getting wiped in the north at the next election, which could be before 2020 at this rate.

Just do one thing for me. Promise me you won't go all 'THE 45!' if your lot lose for fuck's sake.

Labour are fucked unless they get another Blair. I don't mean in terms of personality either. Blair managed, in part at least, to secure working class votes because he was brilliant at being all things to all men. "Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" is probably the best encapsulation of that. Tell the liberal left you love rehabilitating murderers, tell the working class you'll hang the paedos.

The current lot refuse to even acknowledge the working class because they hate them. They hate that they have to rely on what is essentially a mass of social conservatives making up the core vote. Blair knew that he could do what he wanted so long as he chucked them the minimum wage and winter fuel allowance at them. This lot would rather let the working class starve to death.

[Lee]

"We also asked voters how much economic pain they were prepared to suffer to break free of Brussels control.

In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.

But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."

This from Comres is interesting and is why I think a message on tax (as opposed to broad arguments about GDP or recession) might be effective. People don't mind "the economy" tanking a bit, but they most certainly do mind having less change in their own pockets.

[Shindig]

I can't complain if my vote gets edged because, frankly, its a tough thing to get right and neither side has argued the toss at all well. That's what politics comes down to in this stupid age. "Hey, tell me the benefits of AV. Oh, you're just going to tell me it's going to plunge the country into more chaos and hung parliaments. And ruin our everyday lives? Fine."

Maybe this would've benefited from a neutral Prime Minister but that was never going to happen. Just someone in power to say, "Whichever way you vote, here's some facts. Here's some speculation. See you guys on Thursday."

[GS]

Just do one thing for me. Promise me you won't go all 'THE 45!' if your lot lose for fuck's sake.

Labour are fucked unless they get another Blair. I don't mean in terms of personality either. Blair managed, in part at least, to secure working class votes because he was brilliant at being all things to all men. "Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" is probably the best encapsulation of that. Tell the liberal left you love rehabilitating murderers, tell the working class you'll hang the paedos.

The current lot refuse to even acknowledge the working class because they hate them. They hate that they have to rely on what is essentially a mass of social conservatives making up the core vote. Blair knew that he could do what he wanted so long as he chucked them the minimum wage and winter fuel allowance at them. This lot would rather let the working class starve to death.

There's a lot of Labour MPs who literally hate their own base. Andy Burnham spends his life patronising everybody north of Watford. The party's been taken over by Ed Miliband types who think that because they've read Marx and went to the debating society they're left wing. They shouldn't be in the Labour party, frankly.

[GS]

"We also asked voters how much economic pain they were prepared to suffer to break free of Brussels control.

In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.

But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."

This from Comres is interesting and is why I think a message on tax (as opposed to broad arguments about GDP or recession) might be effective. People don't mind "the economy" tanking a bit, but they most certainly do mind having less change in their own pockets.

It could well be effective, but some of the warnings etc. coming from Cameron and Osborne are deeply irresponsible at this point in the campaign. The polls are suggesting a genuine 'risk' (to investors and markets, anyway) of Brexit, and that needs to be handled properly. They're so bent on winning that they literally don't give a shit providing they crawl over the finishing line.

[Lee]

It could well be effective, but some of the warnings etc. coming from Cameron and Osborne are deeply irresponsible at this point in the campaign. The polls are suggesting a genuine 'risk' (to investors and markets, anyway) of Brexit, and that needs to be handled properly. They're so bent on winning that they literally don't give a shit providing they crawl over the finishing line.

Hasn't it beem said by various behind-the-scenes types that Cameron and Osborne only care about winning, whatever the issue? As I said earlier, one of the most fascinating things about a Leave victory would be to see how they react. They've never lost at anything before.

[Lewis]

Just do one thing for me. Promise me you won't go all 'THE 45!' if your lot lose for fuck's sake.

No chance. We would have a lifetime of smugness to look forward to.

[GS]

Apparently Alistair Darling is joining Osborne for his big TAXES AND CUTS push tomorrow.

There's no chance it would even get through the House of Commons, because half the Tory party would never let him do it and most of the Labour party would immediately move into anti-Tory default mode. Why would you even bother?

[niko_cee]

Aren't these tax hikes Osborne is about to embark on scaring everyone with a bit of a double-edged sword again? Or are they just going to do it in the least progressive way possible? Look lads, there's going to be a massive hole, and we're going to fill it by taxing the shit out of the poor. If you do it logically, or like it normally happens, don't you raise the marginal rates first/more? Vote out and get the 50p higher rate back. It's a bit like telling the young there's going to be a massive housing crash. You can't scare everyone at once.

[GS]

Aren't these tax hikes Osborne is about to embark on scaring everyone with a bit of a double-edged sword again? Or are they just going to do it in the least progressive way possible? Look lads, there's going to be a massive hole, and we're going to fill it by taxing the shit out of the poor. If you do it logically, or like it normally happens, don't you raise the marginal rates first/more? Vote out and get the 50p higher rate back. It's a bit like telling the young there's going to be a massive housing crash. You can't scare everyone at once.

Apparently there needs to be a 3% swing in the Labour vote for Remain to sneak it. There's probably a fair portion of the 40%-odd currently voting leave that are soft, so if you threaten them - almost certainly in the C2DE social class and in low-aspiration jobs - that they're going to take a direct financial hit immediately then you swing enough of them back your way. It's not then a case of 'things can't get much worse', as there's tangible evidence that it might well do. Even when you look at the headline points, it's a 2p increase on the basic income tax rate and increases in fuel and alcohol duty. It's targeted at your traditional Labour voters, and it's fucking vile.

[Lewis]

False alarm. Jezza sez he will defend free movement 'because that's intrinsic to the whole thing'.

Agent Jezza. :drool:

[GS]

False alarm. Jezza sez he will defend free movement 'because that's intrinsic to the whole thing'.

Agent Jezza. :drool:

The Labour relaunch is going well. Gordon spends his time slagging off media outlets and suggesting conspiracy, whilst today alone the leader and deputy leader have managed to profoundly disagree with each other on immigration.

Jezza says:

Instead, the Labour leader said the focus should be on “stopping the exploitation of migrant workers”.

He said he was fighting to stay in the European Union so it could be reformed. “Labour voters should think very carefully about the implications of the vote, the implications of tearing up a lot of the regulations which were obtained by trade unions across Europe.”

“I’ve got many criticisms of TTIP and European trade policies – but I want to be there to make sure the interests of ordinary people across Europe are not placed second to those of very big corporations.”

He's not interested in national issues in the slightest.

[Lee]

Apparently Alistair Darling is joining Osborne for his big TAXES AND CUTS push tomorrow.

There's no chance it would even get through the House of Commons, because half the Tory party would never let him do it and most of the Labour party would immediately move into anti-Tory default mode. Why would you even bother?

It doesn't have to get through the Commons since he'll be gone in the event of a leave vote anyway. It's clever positioning really; none of the Tory leave lot can come out and say he's fucked if they win because they've maintained the opposite for the entire campaign so far.

Last throw of the dice stuff, but given where the polls are it doesn't need to sway many. Highlighting specific tax rises is clever too. Whether it will work is anyone's guess.

[GS]

It doesn't have to get through the Commons since he'll be gone in the event of a leave vote anyway. It's clever positioning really; none of the Tory leave lot can come out and say he's fucked if they win because they've maintaned the opposite for the entire campaign so far.

Last throw of the dice stuff, but given where the polls are it doesn't need to sway many. Highlighting specific tax rises is clever too. Whether it will work is anyone's guess.

It depends. I'm obviously looking at it from an 'interested in politics' perspective of knowing that even if he did cling on he'd never get away with it. Whether your average bloke in the street gives enough of a shit about the aftermath to realise he'd almost certainly be toast is another matter.

Fuel, alcohol and the basic rate of income tax. It's a pretty potent trio of financial consequence if you don't look beyond the headline figures. I suspect it will work, because it's not talking GDP figures that a lot of people don't really get or see the relevance to them of.

[Kikó]

Has anyone got a list of reasons why staying in the EU is great? Beyond the sky is falling bit.

[Byron]

Haven't you heard? Staying in the EU is central to the continuing existence of Western Civilization, nay humankind depends on it.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

The best thing that could come out of a leave vote is reading the comments section on the Guardian facebook page. It's still amazing how often the racist/xenophobic shouts come out to anyone saying they want control over immigration.

Was starting to think it wasn't washing much any more but the Guardian die-hards are stubborn.

[Jimmy Floyd]

False alarm. Jezza sez he will defend free movement 'because that's intrinsic to the whole thing'.

Agent Jezza. :drool:

His efforts really have been heroic. Give that man a knighthood after Leave.

[phonics]

743019820489310208

How do you manage to hit a new low everyday?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bob Geldof and Rachel Johnson on a boat telling fishermen to get fucked through a megaphone just about sums up the Remain campaign.

[John]

Drowning out Bob Geldof will always be a noble aim, whatever the methods.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Corbz heroics continue at PMQs, not giving Dave any help whatsoever. Forward, comrade.

He even used one of his questions to ask about 'collecting fish'.

[Boydy]

I'm supposed to be going down south the weekend immediately after this. Should I buy Euros before the referendum in case the pound tanks on Friday or should I wait till after and hope a remain vote sees it rally?

[phonics]

This is why they cancelled The Thick Of It. How do you satirise this?

743048916992729088

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Speccie has also backed Leave. I'll be interested to see what the other papers do, not necessarily because they'll swing any votes, but if the likes of the Telegraph and Mail start backing Leave then we'll be worlds apart from 1975 when every single one backed staying in.

[Lee]

743068947789021184

How do I embed a tweet properly?

Anyway, fuck that if there's any truth in it. I find it hard to believe Johnson would be that stupid. I can well imagine that he's thinking about being PM, but why on Earth would he need Farage?

There was something else from Crick earlier claiming to have been told that Farage has two ambitions; a peerage, and to reunite with the Tories.

EDIT: Tweet appears to be displaying properly now, it was just a blank space originally.

[Disco]

Sounds like Farage trying to make himself seem relevant.

[GS]

743068947789021184

How do I embed a tweet properly?

Anyway, fuck that if there's any truth in it. I find it hard to believe Johnson would be that stupid. I can well imagine that he's thinking about being PM, but why on Earth would he need Farage?

There was something else from Crick earlier claiming to have been told that Farage has two ambitions; a peerage, and to reunite with the Tories.

EDIT: Tweet appears to be displaying properly now, it was just a blank space originally.

A source closed to Boris dismissed it as "horseshit", so I think we can stand the troops down.

It seems the #blackmailbudget went well anyway. 65 Tories, Labour, the SNP and the DUP all said they'd vote against it, and the mood in the Tory camp is "fury" that "well beyond the usual suspects".

The fallout from this is going to be spectacular to watch. Osborne is finished.

[Lee]

I suspect it is bollocks but nobody "close to Boris" is likely to admit he's already planning for government even if it were true.

Osborne have known that was likely. He won't care about people saying they'll vote it down as he'll be out of a job in the event of leave anyway. He just needs to frighten undecideds and soft leavers enough that they'll vote remain. Whether or not that works we won't have any inkling until next Friday. It strikes me as the kind of thing that works in elections though.

Cameron et al are obviously worried about how tight things are or they wouldn't have deployed such a tactic. No matter what they look finished. If it's leave they'll have to go anyway and if it's a narrow remain (which looks to be the very best they can hope for) it won't be long. Whether they wait to be chucked or just accept that they've frittered away all party and personal electoral credibility remains to be seen. Interesting times regardless.

[GS]

Lee, mate.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClAg1YQXIAEQ9B5.jpg

[Lee]

Geldof is a cunt. Always has been. Anybody participating in a fucking referendum flotilla is a state, to be honest.

[GS]

Gove's on Question Time now, if anybody cares.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Who even are those wankers on his boat?

[Shindig]

I think I see Christopher Biggins.

[GS]

Christ knows. Bob bloody Geldof. You'd think you could do better.

On a separate note, Gove's pivoting to pre-tested speeches. Smash the blackmail budget, for fuck sake.

[Lewis]

The same sort of twats who do those lame publicity stunts where everyone wears an Ed Miliband mask.

[Lewis]

They need to do something about these audience members.

[Lewis]

I would have told that Spanish woman to fuck off, so well done Michael Gove.

[GS]

Gove grew into that rightly, I thought. He was a bit wishy-washy at the start, but definitely a strong performance.

I'm genuinely amazed at the manner in which some of these remain types see the immigration issue, as if by advocating control we're one step away from Kristallnacht.

[GS]

Just had a chance to watch Ed Vaizey get Brillo'd this morning. Remarkable stuff.

[Jimmy Floyd]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-would-mean-living-with-all-of-vote-leaves-broken-promises-which-could-sweep-the-tories-out-of-a7083776.html

Do they think a Boris government would start deporting blacks, or what?

[GS]

The unfortunate truth is that I think they know rightly that they're not getting a Labour government any time soon, and they think they "need" the EU to act as some sort of trench system for repeated lines of last defence against "the right".

The left's absolute obsession with couching everything in "anti-Tory" terms is quite bizarre.

[Lewis]

Well what else do they have? The pro-active aspects of left-wing thought have either been tested to destruction or rejected by the electorate, so the modern left is inherently reactive (that is to say negative).

[ItalAussie]

The left's absolute obsession with couching everything in "anti-Tory" terms is quite bizarre.
You say this as if it's not true of both sides. One only has to read your posting history to see the exact same phenomenon in reverse.

Politics is tribal. News at eleven.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah, but in this instance they're making arguments to stay in the EU based primarily on the fact that EU regulations will 'save us' from the Tories. Never mind you actually convincing voters to elect you, then.

[phonics]

GS, the most 'somehow about Labour' poster of all time saying that 'the left' are obsessed :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

Leave lead 53-47 with IPSOS Mori. Somebody get that Ron Paul gif up and running.

Also starting to think Yevrah is an electoral bellwether.

[phonics]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClDwVHbVAAAdNTG.jpg

lul

[niko_cee]

Dta

[Jimmy Floyd]

'People from international organisations' is an absolutely remarkable margin between the two groups. I don't think I've ever seen anything so stark on a binary split.

Academics and economists too, oh lol.

[Lewis]

The blanket lack of trust on the leave side is nice. What a naive lot the remainers are.

[Jimmy Floyd]

One little detail I like is the difference between actors/sportspeople on the remain side, whereas they're equal on the leave side. All roads lead to Hampstead.

[Lee]

Leave lead 53-47 with IPSOS Mori. Somebody get that Ron Paul gif up and running.

Also starting to think Yevrah is an electoral bellwether.

I had the very same thought myself. :D

I might just take up political betting based on his gut feeling.

Aren't Comres, Survation and Opinium the most highly regarded at the moment? It seems to change regularly.

[Lewis]

I've just seen Nick Cohen dismiss somebody for not having many Twitter followers. Is this what it was like in Hitler's bunker?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Interestingly, all of the Oxford [law] academics that I have asked have been strong remain voters. Same is true amongst the students that I know.

Personally, I haven't completely decided but will likely be voting remain.

I think you mean 'predictably'. Academics, like everyone else, look after number one, and in their case number one needs free money and lots of it, for which the EU is (indirectly) quite handy.

This referendum is basically a split between the winners and losers from globalisation. The winners are appalled that anyone could vote otherwise, the losers are angry and want out.

[Lee]

Survation have Leave 45 Remain 42. Phone poll.

I'll be amazed now if Leave don't win it next week.

[GS]

You say this as if it's not true of both sides. One only has to read your posting history to see the exact same phenomenon in reverse.

Politics is tribal. News at eleven.

I'm not a public figure nor making statements with any view to it reaching an audience beyond about 15 people on this forum. Labour since about 2007 has been quite a fascinating political story, really.


I think you mean 'predictably'. Academics, like everyone else, look after number one, and in their case number one needs free money and lots of it, for which the EU is (indirectly) quite handy.

This referendum is basically a split between the winners and losers from globalisation. The winners are appalled that anyone could vote otherwise, the losers are angry and want out.

I think that's quite an apt way of putting it. I'm not sure what's brought about this complete reversal of Leave fortunes, mind. It seems quite staggering, because it's not as if there's been a single 'event' that would have led to it. I assume it's purdah and Cameron and Osborne going so big so early that people just lolled them out of the park, but fuck knows.

[GS]

Survation have Leave 45 Remain 42. Phone poll.

I'll be amazed now if Leave don't win it next week.

It really is looking possible now. Same point as above mind - what the fuck has brought it about?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Survation have Leave 45 Remain 42. Phone poll.

I'll be amazed now if Leave don't win it next week.

I'm not sure. I'm not saying I'm neutral, because I'm going to vote Leave, but I'm not massively invested in a Leave win so am fairly ambivalent - I can't see Leave winning by anything more than the skin of its teeth. People will shit themselves in the polling booth.

[Lee]

The movement coincided with Leave starting to focus more on immigration. As Floyd said yesterday, on this issue emotion trumps cold facts (however dishonestly they're presented). I think you're underplaying it with "possible". It seems overwhelming likely to me now.

Remain now have to rely on people bottling it on the day or just not turning up. Or every single poll being wrong. That's not a strong position to be in.

[ItalAussie]

I think you mean 'predictably'. Academics, like everyone else, look after number one, and in their case number one needs free money and lots of it, for which the EU is (indirectly) quite handy.

By increasing the competition for the already limited number of permanent research positions?

I say this as someone who is now out of the British research scene, so I'm have no self-interest hanging on the outcome here. But if the UK leaves Europe, it will be a stake through the heart of British research. You already pay significantly less than the US does for commensurate positions. Despite that Britain is still able to attract high calibre academics from the continent, as your different status ensures that you aren't competing directly with the US from the same starting point (being as European researchers can live and work in the UK without red tape). If the UK kills this advantage and tries to go head-to-head with the US for the best researchers on a level playing field, it will lose.

Again, I'm out of it. It's no skin off my nose if British R&D stagnates, but it will.

[GS]

I'm not sure. I'm not saying I'm neutral, because I'm going to vote Leave, but I'm not massively invested in a Leave win so am fairly ambivalent - I can't see Leave winning by anything more than the skin of its teeth. People will shit themselves in the polling booth.

Exactly my concern. It's easy to say you're going to vote leave in a poll, it's quite another to go into the voting booth and follow through.

That fieldwork for that Survation poll was done yesterday, so it factored in Osborne's 'blackmail budget'.

[GS]

The movement coincided with Leave starting to focus more on immigration. As Floyd said yesterday, on this issue emotion trumps cold facts (however dishonestly they're presented). I think you're underplaying it with "possible". It seems overwhelming likely to me now.

Remain now have to rely on people bottling it on the day or just not turning up. Or every single poll being wrong. That's not a strong position to be in.

I think purdah played a significant role. I'm not sure immigration can account for the whole difference, mind you. It may have something to do with the fact that we've always been a Eurosceptic country, and people perceive this as the only chance they might ever be given to leave and are prepared to go through it with it irrespective of anything else. The overwhelming disconnect between parliamentarians and their MPs (particularly in the north) may be fuelled the anti-establishment line to the leave vote too.

I'm not sure, really. I just don't think the entire swing - consistent in every poll - can be attributed solely to the increased prevalence of immigration as an issue.

[Jimmy Floyd]

By increasing the competition for the already limited number of permanent research positions?

I say this as someone who is now out of the British research scene, so I'm have no self-interest hanging on the outcome here. But if the UK leaves Europe, it will be a stake through the heart of British research. You already pay significantly less than the US does for commensurate positions. Despite that Britain is still able to attract high calibre academics from the continent, as your different status ensures that you aren't competing directly with the US from the same starting point (being as European researchers can live and work in the UK without red tape). If the UK kills this advantage and tries to go head-to-head with the US for the best researchers on a level playing field, it will lose.

Again, I'm out of it. It's no skin off my nose if British R&D stagnates, but it will.

is the longer term trend not heading in that direction anyway? The Americans have simply far more money than us (and always will), and presumably the Chinese and other newer countries will be entering the top of the market as well.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The movement coincided with Leave starting to focus more on immigration. As Floyd said yesterday, on this issue emotion trumps cold facts (however dishonestly they're presented). I think you're underplaying it with "possible". It seems overwhelming likely to me now.

Remain now have to rely on people bottling it on the day or just not turning up. Or every single poll being wrong. That's not a strong position to be in.

We had a 'Leave' leaflet about immigration yesterday, listing eight or so 'facts'. My mum was loving it, so she showed me it. I reckon about one of them was a legitimate 'fact', and the others ranged between conjecture and bullshit.

If Remain hadn't conducted the most incompetent political campaign since Yes2AV, this stuff might matter, but there we are.

[Lee]

Exactly my concern. It's easy to say you're going to vote leave in a poll, it's quite another to go into the voting booth and follow through.

That fieldwork for that Survation poll was done yesterday, so it factored in Osborne's 'blackmail budget'.

The consensus is normally that things like that take a couple of days to filter through. I don't know what polls are expected next week but if there is any swing back effect you'd see it then. I think if by Tuesday we are still seeing the same polling outcomes then it's pretty much done.

The danger then is that leave voters think it's done and don't turn out. That's straw clutching from a remainer though.

[phonics]

We had a 'Leave' leaflet about immigration yesterday, listing eight or so 'facts'. My mum was loving it, so she showed me it. I reckon about one of them was a legitimate 'fact', and the others ranged between conjecture and bullshit.

If Remain hadn't conducted the most incompetent political campaign since Yes2AV, this stuff might matter, but there we are.

I was going to post this earlier but didn't want to come across as bitter.

http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/20151024_WOC501_2.png

Just look at those reasons for out. I'm not sure you could get more hypothetical if you tried. The Jocks would have been laughed out of the place with stuff like that.

Although 'blocks non-EU migration' is a funny one. Vote Leave to drop immigration only to up the shitty non-EU migration instead :drool:

[Lee]

I think purdah played a significant role. I'm not sure immigration can account for the whole difference, mind you. It may have something to do with the fact that we've always been a Eurosceptic country, and people perceive this as the only chance they might ever be given to leave and are prepared to go through it with it irrespective of anything else. The overwhelming disconnect between parliamentarians and their MPs (particularly in the north) may be fuelled the anti-establishment line to the leave vote too.

I'm not sure, really. I just don't think the entire swing - consistent in every poll - can be attributed solely to the increased prevalence of immigration as an issue.

I think there is a significant "kick Dave and George" element too. That couldn't happen at the General Election as the alternative was Ed. this is almost a free hit. The referendum is about long term political direction, in essence. Nothing big will change in the foreseeable future what we the result so people can launch into the government/establishment without any likely negative short term impact.

[ItalAussie]

is the longer term trend not heading in that direction anyway? The Americans have simply far more money than us (and always will), and presumably the Chinese and other newer countries will be entering the top of the market as well.
Sure, but Britain has held its own, frequently due to the influx of European academics. You're able to attract them, because the ease of movement compensates for the lower salaries. You're hamstringing your research capacity by torpedoing one of the big points in your favour when it comes to attracting really high-calibre academics who could earn a significant amount more elsewhere.

I'm not suggesting that this should change your vote, but the academics pronouncing doom n' gloom aren't lying, and they aren't really doing it out of self-interest. It's true that researchers prefer to be a part of a vibrant research community, so there is benefit there. But it's really obviously going to impact the British research academy in a strongly negative way, and one that it may honestly struggle to recover from for a very long time.

[GS]

The chair of the PLP has broken ranks and declared for Leave and Corbyn's continuing to cite "working conditions" instead of numbers as he defends the principle of freedom of movement.

The "leave it to Labour" strategy from earlier in the week is going to absolute shit.

[Lee]

Labour have quietly been more shambolic than the Tories in all this.

[GS]

I wonder if more Labour MPs will break ranks too. They may sense the direction of the polls and, looking towards 2020, decide it's better to be late to the side their constituents are on rather than cling desperately to the party line.

[Lewis]

You would like to think that academics could still get permission to work here. If the Americans let them in, why wouldn't we? Speaking of which, we got another massive fold-out Labour In leaflet that doesn't mention immigration. Useless bastards.

[GS]

The BBC keep trying to link the shooting of Jo Cox to the referendum campaign. You'd think you'd have the decency to hold off speculating on such things at this stage.

[Lee]

No news agency has the decency to not speculate when things like this happen. It's how they fill the airtime when the know nothing.

Anyway fuck that, get yourself in front of the telly to watch your boys.

[niko_cee]

Sure, but Britain has held its own, frequently due to the influx of European academics. You're able to attract them, because the ease of movement compensates for the lower salaries.

What does this mean? I can only think it means 'ease of movement' in geographical terms, which isn't going to change. Even if this vote is to leave it's still going to be a piece of piss to move in and out of the UK (and EU respectively) if you are a highly qualified person (probably easier if you extend this to colonials). The idea that there is going to be some sort of new Berlin Wall is completely batshit, and the only reason for it having any plausibility is that the European elites tend to put the project before all else (ie the interests of their own people) and then when you start down that line of thinking (this is going to be a disaster because they are going to make it one) don't you come back to the idea that maybe having such people in charge of things might not be the best thing?

[Lofty]

All campaigning has been suspended by mutual consent following the shooting.

[GS]

On the left is an actual Nazi propaganda film (apparently, anyway).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClFL1nxWEAI4NPv.jpg

You'd think you could find a basement to lock him in for the next week, for fuck sake.

[Lee]

On the left is an actual Nazi propaganda film (apparently, anyway).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClFL1nxWEAI4NPv.jpg

You'd think you could find a basement to lock him in for the next week, for fuck sake.

He probably has to go down, perhaps along with Salmond, as the most important single issue politician of my lifetime. But he's also one of the few things which could swing this referendum for Remain on the final stretch.

That poster is not only questionable in its general message, but is also a lie. All of those queuing are brown people, for fuck's sake. They're fleeing Syria amd we're not taking any Syrians from Europe anyway. They're also not anything like representative of EU migration. It's real lowest common denominator politics. And completely unnecessary; anybody with immigration at the top lf their agenda is already voting Leave.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was thinking earlier that a Leave campaign without that idiot would be a lot better. But it would also probably amass fewer votes.

[GS]

It's probably worked well enough for Leave, in that Farage can agitate with the base whilst the 'official' campaign say he's nothing to do with us and canvass for the middle ground.

I suspect this MP assassination is going to have a significant enough impact on the vote, mind.

[Lee]

It's probably worked well enough for Leave, in that Farage can agitate with the base whilst the 'official' campaign say he's nothing to do with us and canvass for the middle ground.

I suspect this MP assassination is going to have a significant enough impact on the vote, mind.

It won't and nor should it. The perpetrator appears to be a mentally ill chap rather than a wanker with links to anything far right.

It does allow the Remain team to pause the campaign and think properly how they end it, and the pause may serve to stop Leave's momentum. But to rely on that is a bit weak.

I believe the IMF Brexit report is due tomorrow, having been delayed following Cox's murder today. It will clearly be negative for Leave and it will be interesting to see how they respond given that the campaign will formally pause until the weekenes now. My view is that they ought to delay the release of the report further, but I doubt they will.

I am interested to see what Remain do next week. You'd expect a big push with Cameron at the forefront. He clearly isn't trusted by the electorate (this campaign has been a lesson in just how quickly the trust of the electorate can evaporate) but he has proven effective when doing his phony passionate act in the past. I find it hard to believe that they don't have something significant planned. Whether it would be effective is another matter entirely.

EDIT: actually, on Cox's murder, it's interesting that the ones commenting more prominently on the national news are those on the Remain side. Understandable of course, given that the senior leaders support Remain. I wonder if these people appearing in a compassionate and statesmanlike capacity rather than the aggressive tone of the political campaign might filter through and influence some.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The self-righteous twitter mob have all decided that Nigel Farage basically murdered her, which is fucking ridiculous.

I've heard reports of the postal votes being grisly for Remain, although such reports would be illegal of course.

[Lee]

The self-righteous twitter mob have all decided that Nigel Farage basically murdered her, which is fucking ridiculous.

I've heard reports of the postal votes being grisly for Remain, although such reports would be illegal of course.

I've heard the same, and similar reports came through re: Labour's general election performance last year. That said, presumably most postal voters are elderly whose vote you'd expect to be for Leave anyway.

[GS]

It won't and nor should it. The perpetrator appears to be a mentally ill chap rather than a wanker with links to anything far right.

It does allow the Remain team to pause the campaign and think properly how they end it, and the pause may serve to stop Leave's momentum. But to rely on that is a bit weak.

I believe the IMF Brexit report is due tomorrow, having been delayed following Cox's murder today. It will clearly be negative for Leave and it will be interesting to see how they respond given that the campaign will formally pause until the weekenes now. My view is that they ought to delay the release of the report further, but I doubt they will.

I am interested to see what Remain do next week. You'd expect a big push with Cameron at the forefront. He clearly isn't trusted by the electorate (this campaign has been a lesson in just how quickly the trust of the electorate can evaporate) but he has proven effective when doing his phony passionate act in the past. I find it hard to believe that they don't have something significant planned. Whether it would be effective is another matter entirely.

I meant the campaign rather than the vote - poor choice of word on my part. Jimmy has it right - although the people who are going off on one are probably of that mindset already. Alex Massie on the Spectator wrote an article which, despite saying "Nigel Farage is not responsible", was insinuating quite heavily that he was, in fact, responsible. It seems to have been taken down, so they might have decided it was a bit imprudent to throw it up in the immediate aftermath.

The IMF report should be interesting. People voting to leave seem prepared to ignore everything these institutions throw at them, and the economic argument doesn't seem to be working. I've read Downing Street are determined to stick with it in the belief it's going to work eventually, but it's reaching the "all chips in" stage - if it hasn't already.

[GS]

I've heard the same, and similar reports came through re: Labour's general election performance last year. That said, presumably most postal voters are elderly whose vote you'd expect to be for Leave anyway.

I've read the same as well. Apparently they're "shocking" in Labour heartlands, and it's one of the reasons why Labour have gone into full on panic.

As you say however, it's going to be the elderly who are postal voting so you'd expect them to be waited heavily to leave anyway. London might win it for Remain, given it must be heavily anti-Leave.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The article is still there. It's not really saying that Farage is (personally) responsible, but it is making a lot of emotionally driven assumptions which it's too early to make before the facts are known, which is why they pulled it. I like Alex Massie, though, so meh.

London will go remain, but I think the Home Counties will go quite heavily Leave, and then it's the Labour heartlands that decide it.

[Lewis]

You only like him because he gives it to the SNP. He's a right wank.

[Lee]

I meant the campaign rather than the vote - poor choice of word on my part. Jimmy has it right - although the people who are going off on one are probably of that mindset already. Alex Massie on the Spectator wrote an article which, despite saying "Nigel Farage is not responsible", was insinuating quite heavily that he was, in fact, responsible. It seems to have been taken down, so they might have decided it was a bit imprudent to throw it up in the immediate aftermath.

The IMF report should be interesting. People voting to leave seem prepared to ignore everything these institutions throw at them, and the economic argument doesn't seem to be working. I've read Downing Street are determined to stick with it in the belief it's going to work eventually, but it's reaching the "all chips in" stage - if it hasn't already.

Yeah that Alex Massie article is in very poor taste. Alastair Campbell is being an arse on Twitter too.

I don't think Remain have anything left but the economy. I guess the belief that it will still work is based on the consensus that it does tend to work in both conventional elections and referenda. Scotland being the key example of the latter. I do wonder if Cameron will attempt a VOW along the lines of that which characterised the final week of the Scottish vote. I imagine that if EU leaders are genuinely fearful of Brexit that they'll be happy to throw a bone of sorts. Such a measure would also betray the level of concern within No. 10, of course.

[GS]

The only vow that would swing anything would be on free movement, and the French and Germans would sooner see Britain leave that concede the point. It's a non-starter. Cameron could try doing something unilaterally, but then he'd just be dismissed with "why didn't you get it in your renegotiation then, you cunt".

In terms of referendum impact, the Daily Star - bastion of sound journalism and sensible media - have decided she was assassinated by a "BREXIT GUNMAN". You'd think you'd wait a day or two before exploiting something so obviously awful for political gain.

[Lee]

The article is still there. It's not really saying that Farage is (personally) responsible, but it is making a lot of emotionally driven assumptions which it's too early to make before the facts are known, which is why they pulled it. I like Alex Massie, though, so meh.

London will go remain, but I think the Home Counties will go quite heavily Leave, and then it's the Labour heartlands that decide it.


The key will be turnout in the Labour heartlands. My feeling is that there are a lot of angry white working class voters (and second and third generation Subcontimemt immigrants actually, from what I can tell about Leicester) and that anger is a strong enough motivator to get them to the polling stations.

I'm almost resigned to us leaving now, although I'll hope for the opposite until it's confirmed. The only thing I know for certaim os that I'm going to be absolutely fucked at work next Friday. I had stuoidly assumed that there would be a fairly quick and boring announcement rather than a Dimbleby all-nighter, so I haven't booked the day off. Probably Dimbleby's swansong too.

[Lee]

The only vow that would swing anything would be on free movement, and the French and Germans would sooner see Britain leave that concede the point. It's a non-starter. Cameron could try doing something unilaterally, but then he'd just be dismissed with "why didn't you get it in your renegotiation then, you cunt".

In terms of referendum impact, the Daily Star - bastion of sound journalism and sensible media - have decided she was assassinated by a "BREXIT GUNMAN". You'd think you'd wait a day or two before exploiting something so obviously awful for political gain.


ITV News are speculating that it might be a result of her Remain leanings. Who gives a shit this early on? Report the facts and reflect on how shit it is. It's a big enough story on its own.

[GS]

The key will be turnout in the Labour heartlands. My feeling is that there are a lot of angry white working class voters (and second and third generation Subcontimemt immigrants actually, from what I can tell about Leicester) and that anger is a strong enough motivator to get them to the polling stations.

I'm almost resigned to us leaving now, although I'll hope for the opposite until it's confirmed. The only thing I know for certaim os that I'm going to be absolutely fucked at work next Friday. I had stuoidly assumed that there would be a fairly quick and boring announcement rather than a Dimbleby all-nighter, so I haven't booked the day off. Probably Dimbleby's swansong too.

Not that it's an overwhelming sample of anything, but I thought this was quite interesting in understanding the ANGER that might drive a leave vote: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/15/brexit-working-class-sick-racist-eu-referendum

[Boydy]

Not that it's an overwhelming sample of anything, but I thought this was quite interesting in understanding the ANGER that might drive a leave vote: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/15/brexit-working-class-sick-racist-eu-referendum

I thought you were all 'Guardian? NO THANKS!' ?

[Boydy]

Anyway, I reckon this was some false flag operation by MI5/6/the powers that be to win sympathy for Remain. The elites don't want us to leave.

[GS]

Some of the writing is horrendously moralistic and deserving of contempt, but some articles are alright. I can generally judge quite quickly if it's worth persevering. Plus it's a news website that is a) free and b) not limited in the number of articles you can read.

Just in case your world as you understood it was about to collapse, the Telegraph remains my paper of choice.

[GS]

Anyway, I reckon this was some false flag operation by MI5/6/the powers that be to win sympathy for Remain. The elites don't want us to leave.

Are you still voting Remain? Genuine question.

[Boydy]

Yeah.

[GS]

Shame.

[Boydy]

The self-righteous twitter mob have all decided that Nigel Farage basically murdered her, which is fucking ridiculous.

I've heard reports of the postal votes being grisly for Remain, although such reports would be illegal of course.

I've noticed this among a lot of my lefty/liberal friends on Facebook too. Some even linked to/quoted that Spectator article. All blaming the right-wing ideology and rhetoric. You wouldn't find any of them blaming Islam for Islamic fundamentalists' terror attacks though.

[GS]

Therein lies the hypocrisy.

Even if the rhetoric did incite someone (which it didn't in this case, as far as we can tell), what are you meant to do about it? You can't just shut down / no platform everybody who disagrees with you on the off chance that some nutter decides to take 'unilateral action'.

[Boydy]

I agree.

Hell, you could argue similarly about violent computer games.

[Lewis]

Toynbee is blaming the Leave people (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox?CMP=share_btn_tw) as well:


There are many decent people involved in the campaign to secure Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, many who respect the referendum as the exercise in democracy that it is. But there are others whose recklessness has been open and shocking. I believe they bear responsibility, not for the attack itself, but for the current mood: for the inflammatory language, for the finger-jabbing, the dogwhistling and the overt racism. It’s been part of a noxious brew, with a dangerous anti-politics and anti-MP stereotypes fomented by leave and their media backers mixed in.

I like the idea that 'anti-politics' exists in a vacuum where people are merely looking for something to be annoyed about, rather than completely disillusioned with the cunts who fuck everything up and the twats who write about it blaming dickheads for not realising how great they are, which is basically the Remain campaign (and her own contributions) in a sentence. Also, Oswald Mosley quit the Labour Party because they weren't left-wing enough. He wasn't chucked out. Knobhead.

[Shindig]

In a world where people are actively voting for Trump for the 'entertainment value'. I blame the internet. And Spain.

[GS]

Toynbee is blaming the Leave people (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox?CMP=share_btn_tw) as well:


There are many decent people involved in the campaign to secure Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, many who respect the referendum as the exercise in democracy that it is. But there are others whose recklessness has been open and shocking. I believe they bear responsibility, not for the attack itself, but for the current mood: for the inflammatory language, for the finger-jabbing, the dogwhistling and the overt racism. It’s been part of a noxious brew, with a dangerous anti-politics and anti-MP stereotypes fomented by leave and their media backers mixed in.

I like the idea that 'anti-politics' exists in a vacuum where people are merely looking for something to be annoyed about, rather than completely disillusioned with the cunts who fuck everything up and the twats who write about it blaming dickheads for not realising how great they are, which is basically the Remain campaign (and her own contributions) in a sentence. Also, Oswald Mosley quit the Labour Party because they weren't left-wing enough. He wasn't chucked out. Knobhead.
Boydy - this is the sort of article I'm on about. The fucking state of it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Another Labour MP, Stephen Timms, was stabbed twice by an Islamist nutter woman at a constituency surgery a few years ago (2010). They had to perform life-saving surgery and she got a life sentence for attempted murder. Heard remarkably little about it either then or now.

[Boydy]

Boydy - this is the sort of article I'm on about. The fucking state of it.

Aye, I know. A lot of it pisses me off too.

I was't being serious with that post anyway. I only said it because that was your response to something I posted from it the other day (which wasn't even about the EU referendum and was genuinely worth a watch for anyone interested in politics, I think).

[Lee]

Another Labour MP, Stephen Timms, was stabbed twice by an Islamist nutter woman at a constituency surgery a few years ago (2010). They had to perform life-saving surgery and she got a life sentence for attempted murder. Heard remarkably little about it either then or now.

I seem to remember that being a big story at the time. Not as big as this, but then Timms didn't die.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was in the news that he got stabbed, but I had to google the Islamist element last night.

Reading people on my twitter feed this morning I'm sad to report that some lefties are absolutely itching for it to be a right wing nationalist. Nothing like a tragedy to seize the moral high ground.

[Boydy]

Jeremy Clarkson tells David Cameron 'my gut says stay in the EU'

http://gu.com/p/4ydtt?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Dave's pulling out the big guns now.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Clarkson came out for Remain ages back didn't he?

I need to hear James May's thoughts before my vote is secure.

[phonics]

Yeah, Clarkson admitted he actually wanted a federal Europe.

[GS]

It was in the news that he got stabbed, but I had to google the Islamist element last night.

Reading people on my twitter feed this morning I'm sad to report that some lefties are absolutely itching for it to be a right wing nationalist. Nothing like a tragedy to seize the moral high ground.

I don't know if it's because they genuinely believe it or they've simply espied any opportunity to slander everybody on the leave side, but it's genuinely disgraceful behaviour the way some have jumped on this.

Boydy made a good point re Islamic terrorism. Either they're nutters acting by themselves or they're influenced by the debate. You can't have it both ways based on what you find convenient.


Yeah, Clarkson admitted he actually wanted a federal Europe.

That would be the absolute pits.

[GS]

For what it's worth, the odds on Leave have lengthened from 5/4 to 7/4 (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result) over the last 24 hours - one suspects on the back of the attack and the way it'll inevitably influence the campaign i.e. everybody wanting to leave is divisive and therefore evil.

:moop:

[phonics]

That would be the absolute pits.

Why? You'd have your democratic representation like you always wanted and what you say is your key issue.

[GS]

Why? You'd have your democratic representation like you always wanted and what you say is your key issue.

It wouldn't be democratic, one suspects.

A federal Europe would inevitably mean an EU president, an EU army and various other EU-wide structures. We'd effectively cease having our own FCO.

[Lewis]

I read yesterday that if we leave then Spain becomes a net budget contributor. :harold:

[GS]

That's Spain - part of our peaceful cooperation within the EU - who continue to agitate for the return of Gibraltar by closing the border and having shipping deliberately cross into Gibraltar's territorial waters. Top, top lads are the Spanish.

[Lee]

For what it's worth, the odds on Leave have lengthened from 5/4 to 7/4 (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result) over the last 24 hours - one suspects on the back of the attack and the way it'll inevitably influence the campaign i.e. everybody wanting to leave is divisive and therefore evil.

:moop:

The odds on leave have been far too long for at least a couple of weeks and that remains the case even though I'd suggest leave should be narrow favourites now. The odds may have drifted as people anticipate that Cox's death will influence the outcome, but I think they're wrong. I don't think it will have any impact at all. There's more chance of Farage's awful poster doing so.

My guess is that gamblers are expecting some swingback to the status quo option. I had a look last night at polling in the AV and Scottish referenda and it is true that the lead (positive or negative) was underestimated by 7-15% between the two. That said, it could also be argued that the overestimate was of the perceived 'left' position rather than an underestimate of the status quo one. Small sample, so impossible to tell. Worth noting that the bookies did not predict a Tory majority last year.

My prediction at the minute is that we're going to see 52:48 leave vote. I think a vote that tight is a bad thing for two reasons; firstly the campaign has been divisive and nasty and I think a close vote sets us up for s continuation of that spirit for some time. And secondly, if leave just scrape it I think we'll end up with another renegotiation with a Johnson-led Tory Party campaigning at the 2020 with that as their main manifesto plank. Or, even worse, another referendum.

The best that can be hoped for, for the sake of politics, is a decisive victory either way.

[Lewis]

The only way it will have an effect is if campaigning shuts down entirely and people forget to vote.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I reckon the same margin, but for Remain.

Also worth remembering a lot of postal votes will already be in so this won't affect them.

[Lewis]

This (https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/76258/nicola-sturgeon-negotiate-brussels-keep-scotlands-eu) would be funny. What would they do if they called another referendum and lost it? I'm sure they would still be the main party on the back of the bitter votes, but it would surely put independence to bed for a generation at least.

[Kikó]

Anecdotal evidence from the MIL but she was saying all of the people she knows who voted no in the indie referendum would now vote yes if we did leave the EU.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

I cannot get 'democratically expressed will' in that twat's voice out of my head.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bristol will probably vote Remain as well, why don't they declare independence.

[Shindig]

Wel'll flood their canals with Cornish blood.

[Disco]

You'll have to do it at the weekend, there's only about 8 people in Cornwall Monday to Friday.

[Shindig]

Well, that's certainly better for my conscience.

[GS]

I cannot get 'democratically expressed will' in that twat's voice out of my head.

I find it all a bit bizarre, really. I read an article which attempted to reconcile wanting to split off from the UK and yet remain in the EU, but it wound itself into intellectual knots in attempting to justify it.

I think the issue for Sturgeon et al is that they literally don't give a shit about democracy if it gets in the way of what they want. Run a referendum and lose - fine, we'll just have another one. Run a UK wide referendum on EU membership and lose - fine, we'll just ignore the result. Even a key line of justification for staying in the EU is that it acts as a defence against the Tories, as if a foreign jurisdiction should be able to stop the democratically elected government for the UK doing what it wants.

Regardless, you can't give them another referendum until well into the next parliament - if at all. We'll need to extract ourselves from the EU first - which would take years, and you can't have yet another constitutional referendum of profound importance in the middle of that process. It'll just fuck everything up.

They had their referendum in 2014 - they were allowed to set the question (meaning they were campaigning for the more positive "Yes"), the date (700 years since Bannockburn, mate), the franchise (reducing the lower age to 16 because young people were more likely to vote yes) - they had every conceivable in-built advantage and they still lost by a decisive margin. They didn't win a majority in the Scottish parliament either, so the Scots didn't back the nationalist cause this year - although they'd no doubt argue there was no manifesto pledge for a second referendum.

One suspects it's all chat to keep the base agitated, mind you. There was a poll recently that said even if Scotland voted to leave, the margin for No was still 48-38.

[Lee]

I don't think it's unreasonable to want another referendum if the constitutional arrangements to which the UK is party change significantly, which would be the case if we leave the EU. It's a defensible position.

The problem Sturgeon has is that polling shows no appetite for independence, even when Brexit is taken into account in the survey. Has she not said she won't want another referendum unless there is a desire for it among the electorate? I guess she thinks Brexit represents a campaigning opportunity to drum up interest. I don't think success is anywhere near guaranteed though.

[GS]

The constitutional arrangements of extracting the UK from the EU would need to take practical precedence over 'internal' constitutional matters. Westminster would have to reject holding another referendum on that basis - the referendum was held on a UK-wide level after all. Northern Ireland will almost certainly vote to Remain on the back of a strong pro-Remain vote in the Catholic community. That doesn't mean anybody would seriously suggest a change in our constitutional position.

I think her position would be more defensible if she hadn't made it abundantly clear that she wouldn't hold another referendum unless she knew she was going to win. Much of it is just is agitation to keep the base interested, knowing full well that there's a hardcore who are never going to concede the point.

Regardless, you can't be leaking stories / suggesting you're going to circumvent the outcome of the EU referendum if you don't like the result.

[niko_cee]

Imagine the seethe on all those jock fisherman if they somehow stayed in in the event of Britain fucking off (completely implausible as that is).

[GS]

More hysteria from The Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers?CMP=share_btn_tw


There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?

They should be closed down, really. They're doing more to fuel the UNPLEASANT ATMOSPHERE than any other publication right now. They're effectively saying that anybody who doesn't agree with them is either a racist or, at the very least, condoning racism.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A vote for Remain is a vote for Tony Blair.

It's what I said about winners and losers from globalisation again. That is the dividing line along the country. Marina Hyde, winner, looks down on the losers.

[Lewis]

I've always taken 'Hyde' as a joke about concealing her poshness.

[Spoonsky]

A vote for Remain is a vote for Tony Blair.

It's what I said about winners and losers from globalisation again. That is the dividing line along the country. Marina Hyde, winner, looks down on the losers.

I think it's the same in the United States. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have both been fueled by the losers. It's why Trump probably poses a greater threat than most of you believe him to.

[GS]

Trump's unfavourables are far too high across too much of the spectrum for him to win, I suspect.

[Lee]

BMG released two polls last night; a phone poll with Remain 7 ahead, and an online poll with Leave 11 ahead.

They are saying they believe the phone poll to be more accurate and that there is evidence that Remain voters are more difficult to get hold of. Still, that's a difference of 18 points. Whilst is is clear that there has been a significant move to Leave over the last couple of weeks it's probably fair to say that nobody has a clue what's going on.

[GS]

743958302451720193

Nobody knows as there's nothing you can compare it to in order to check outliers. Still, the trend continues of a swing to leave. The phone poll showing it closer definitely rings true with the others - they've also had a swing, but more bringing the two much closer together than seeing Leave shoot past into consistent big leads.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Part of me thinks Leave will win by a surprisingly enormous margin, part of me thinks Remain will squeak it. Conclusion: I have no idea.

[Lee]

743958302451720193

Nobody knows as there's nothing you can compare it to in order to check outliers. Still, the trend continues of a swing to leave. The phone poll showing it closer definitely rings true with the others - they've also had a swing, but more bringing the two much closer together than seeing Leave shoot past into consistent big leads.

That's the ones, although apparently they're keener now to exclude don't knows and want the following findings to be the ones reported:

Online: Leave 55.5, Remain 44.5

Phone: Remain 53.6, Leave 46.7

[Lee]

Part of me thinks Leave will win by a surprisingly enormous margin, part of me thinks Remain will squeak it. Conclusion: I have no idea.

I'm in a similar place but can see it being a comfortable margin either way against all expectations. I now suspect that the polls are good at picking up trends, but shit at predicting outcomes.

I think it's bad thing that polling companies keep changing methodology midway through a campaign. Surely you test your approach then adjust after the result if necessary?

[GS]

Part of me thinks Leave will win by a surprisingly enormous margin, part of me thinks Remain will squeak it. Conclusion: I have no idea.

Thirded. My initial view about two weeks ago was a Remain win of around 54-46, but I just don't know any more. The majority of people I know are voting for Remain, but then we're all "young professionals" in well paying jobs so it's far from a representative sample. I agree with Lee, really. There's a clear trend towards Leave, but the actual figure is anybody's guess.

When you try and break it down, I get to this:

Leave
- Tory heartlands
- Labour heartlands, particularly in the post-industrial areas
- The South East and East
- Wales excl. Cardiff
- Coastal areas of Scotland
- Protestant / unionist community in Northern Ireland

Remain
- London
- Scotland (outside the coastal areas)
- Cardiff
- Catholic / nationalist community in Northern Ireland
- Major urban areas, particularly in the north west

I don't know, really. It's fascinating to think about. I'm still hoping that the 65+ vote turning out in droves will swing the vote towards Leave. They're two-thirds for Leave as it stands, although apparently the biggest swing towards Leave has been from the 35-49 age group.

[SvN]

I have no idea how I'm going to vote. I'm completely on the fence, and I've been swaying both ways over the past few months without any real conviction.

[Byron]

Likewise, I swing back and forth myself but I'm still verging on the Leave side. I will be morbidly curious into the aftermath though, whichever way this goes Cameron and Gideon are fucked and I suspect there will be a rift right through the Tory party. Now if only there was a competent opposition who could take advantage of that :moop:

[Lewis]

I bet Norwich is just one big REMAIN sign at the moment.

[Byron]

I've seen a few but of the people at work I talk to, there's a fairly significant Leave portion, which did surprise me.

There's one nutcase Kipper here but otherwise, a lot of the justification is simply the soverignty argument.

[Magic]

I love how that lunatic that killed the MP is called BREXIT GUNMAN in the Daily Star. :harold:

[GS]

I've seen a few but of the people at work I talk to, there's a fairly significant Leave portion, which did surprise me.

There's one nutcase Kipper here but otherwise, a lot of the justification is simply the soverignty argument.

Sovereignty is the big argument winner, I think. Parliament isn't sovereign and the supreme court isn't supreme. It'll keep getting chipped away and chipped away as it has done since 1973, because that's the direction of travel. It's just not worth it.

"Vote leave, take control" has been quite an effective campaign, really.

[GS]

I love how that lunatic that killed the MP is called BREXIT GUNMAN in the Daily Star. :harold:

The Guardian have been more hysterical, unfortunately. Some of the articles they've put up have basically suggested that a vote to Leave is a precursor to invading Poland. It's quite dangerous rhetoric really - or would be if its circulation wasn't so shit.

[Demerit]

For selfish reasons, I'll be remaining.

We've already noticed a huge lag in the property market in the past month with a lot of uncertainty.

If we leave the market is going to effectively die, which is rarely good. Lots of people who have bought in the past 18 months will be in negative equity.

[Byron]

What's the reasoning behind that?

Not baiting but I'm in the process of buying a house (we're at valuation / survey stage) so I'm quite keen to know the ins and outs.

[Demerit]

What's the reasoning behind that?

Not baiting but I'm in the process of buying a house (we're at valuation / survey stage) so I'm quite keen to know the ins and outs.

Mostly investors pulling away their money until after the referendum to see what the country looks like afterwards.

Unfortunately, as lovely as that sounds for first time buyers, you require investors to drive the market and without them it stagnates.

The general concencous is that if we leave, most people (unless they're distress sales aka divorce, debt or death) will hold tight and see how the country shapes up before they decide to sell.

The difference is that this time last year, we'd host an open house and have 40 applicants/15 offers. Now we'll host an open house and we'll have 15 applicants/3 offers.

We just need a few more applicants to drop off for properties to stop selling and prices to start to fall, and the referendum seems to be the thing to do it.

Whereas if we remain I think it will be largely business as usual.

[Luke Emia]

I reckon Norfolk as a whole will heavily be a leave area. Lot of old people and especially in the west of the county a hell of a lot of Eastern Europeans is pretty much the leave dream.

[Raoul Duke]

Yeah - we're in the same boat. Was looking to buy but there's just so much uncertainty we're going to hold off and see what happens. Plus that's on top of the general insanity around prices.

We're having trouble in work with it too - we're trying to hire people but developers who are based overseas aren't willing to commit to moving over whilst this absolute clusterfuck is happening.

It would likely be a fucking disaster if we vote to leave, particularly in the finance/tech sector (a.k.a. the only part of the economy which isn't a total sack of shit).

[GS]

I imagine there would be a deal very quickly - there's nothing for the EU to gain from being wankers, apart from discouraging other countries from wanting to leave. Then again, we tried coercion in Ireland and it didn't go very well. Even then, their leaders (in France and Germany especially) have domestic audiences to mollify and they won't get anywhere electorally arguing the toss on abstract concepts of "punishing" Britain. Hollande is going to lose and Merkel's in choppy water, so they'll be doing anything to win votes domestically.

There are a couple of polls out tonight, and one has the fieldwork being completed on Thursday and Friday. I suspect that vote will be heavily for Remain on the back of "let's all get on together" sentiment, but whether it'll be an outlier or "events, dear boy, events" shafting the Leave side.

On a separate note - you can ignore the campaigning bit at the end, but the first bit is quite good.

744153697207255040

[Lee]

I'm not watching that but if it's a moan about moving the EU to parliament however often they do it then it's bang on. Complete waste of time any money. I can't imagine even pro-EU people think it's a good idea.

I doubt the Cox thing will move the polls at all and, to be honest, I don't know if the polls are any good. I'll look out for them anyway and would expect to see YouGov with a Leave lead of more than five points and Opinium with anything between a couple of point Remain lead to a couple of point Leave lead.

The thing to look out for will be a continuation of Leave momentum.

[Shindig]

"Why would they be upset about that?"

I'm going to set up a camera outside his place of work and see how long it takes for me to get moved on. Then I'll film a piece to camera saying, "See!? SEE!?"

[GS]

I doubt the accuracy of the polls too, but frankly there's little else against which to judge the momentum of the campaigns and they do shape the media narrative around it. On Jimmy's point earlier about the potential for it being a massive leave vote or a narrow remain win, Andrew Marr has written quite an interesting aside for the Spectator:


Nobody knows what’s going to happen in our referendum. But for the past three or four weeks I have felt things are going Brexit’s way. The polls, which I don’t believe, are only now catching up on Marr sampling. One of the very few advantages of having an — ahem! — distinctive televised face is that people come up and tell you, often out of the side of the mouth, what they think.

Over the past few weeks I’ve been filming all over Britain. Everywhere I go, from cafés (‘hot water please’) to trains and airports, walking down the street or lazing on a Scottish island, I hear, ‘Psst, I’m for out.’ I’ve heard it from Scottish nationalists, red-hot socialists and Tories alike. It’s utterly unscientific, of course, but if I had trusted this kind of informal street chatter during the general election I’d have realised exactly what was going on. I didn’t. I listened to the polls and the commentators.

The best bet for the Remain side is a dramatic last-minute moment of alarm. That might happen. But there’s precious little sign of it yet.

The shy remainers coming out to storm to a 51-49 win, no doubt.

[Lee]

I think those who want to leave are those who will shout loudest. We're a fundamentally eurosceptic nation; most of those voting to remain will be doing so for pragmatic reasons and are unlikely, I reckon, to be campaigning overtly and sticking posters in the window.

I can well imagine a feeling of "oh shit, we're actually going to leave here" to jolt a few who might be considering a leave vote as a protest or to those who weren't going to bother because a remain victory looked so obvious for so long. Whether it will be enough I just don't know.

I don't think the poling organisations are completely shit. Indeed they may be brilliant at this; we won't know until Friday morning. They are certainly picking up a trend towards leave. I just don't know if they're quite sure where the 50:50 position lies which obviously undermines the numbers themselves. I have a feeling that they're not calibrated correctly and that we shouldn't be too shocked if we end up seeing a comfortable victory for either side.

[GS]

I'd agree. Strong pro-EU sentiment is niche at best - there are very few nutters advocating federalism or saying it's the best thing that's happened to us since the Bill of Rights. Present company excepted, of course

[Lee]

Thanks, mate. :D

[GS]

You're welcome.

You might like this, too, on the back of the article you cited on Varoufakis and Greek creditors: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647600/We-told-EU-makes-stronger-haunting-dispatch-despairing-destitute-Greece-make-change-mind.html

[Lee]

The Opinium online poll is out. 44 each. Most fieldwork before Jo Cox's murder, in case that turns out to be relevant. No change for Remain, 2 up for Leave. Not sure if that's margin of error movement or continued Leave momentum.

[GS]

Three more due tonight - YouGov for the Sunday Times, YouGov (again, for some reason) for Good Morning Britain and a Survation phone poll for the MoS.

Fieldwork dates will be vital.

[Lee]

Pretty sure the Sunday Times YouGov one is mostly after the murder. The last YouGov one earlier this week had a 7 point Leave lead.

[Spoonsky]

You guys fucking love these polls, don't you? :D

[GS]

They're the only thing you have to try and work out what the fuck is going on, and even then they're worthless.

Still, it's the only constitutional referendum of any consequence I'm going to get bar a border poll so it'll have to do.

[Lee]

Some polling (not voting intention) by ComRes of reactions to various outcomes before and after Jo Cox's murder:

http://i66.tinypic.com/io21ih.jpg

And some on what's going to influence people at the ballot box on Thursday:

http://i66.tinypic.com/2gwrxg1.jpg

[GS]

Events, dear boy, events. You'll see it in the numbers tonight, no doubt.

That pre and post 2pm thing is exactly what I expected, because Leave unavoidably carries connotations of "division" which doesn't sit well after such an event.

[Lee]

The split samples are pretty small, I think. And the ComRes bloke on Twitter reckons plenty of the post 2pm lot may not have even heard the Cox news yet. Could also just be a very short term reaction, or even people less inclined to speak positively about leaving. We'll see.

Let's be honest, we're just filling space trying to work out what's going on because we don't have the slightest idea.

[GS]

True. Plus it would have been in the immediate aftermath, so you'd imagine the dust will have settled by the vote itself.

[Kikó]

Does there have to be a significant margin for leave to "win"? Or is any majority acceptable.

[GS]

Just a majority. There's no 'qualified' majority or double lock (e.g. each of the four countries has to vote to leave).

[Lee]

Simple majority does it.

[Lee]

Survation phone poll:

Remain 45 (+3)
Leave 42 (-3)

Fieldwork all after Jo Cox's murder.

[GS]

Told you.

[Lee]

One poll, margin of error.

[GS]

It's too much of a coincidence.

[Lee]

The two polls out so far tonight, given margin of error, say dead level. All to play for.

[Boydy]

We should ban political polling.

[GS]

Lee and I wouldn't have anything to talk about then.

[GS]

744273560265449474

:moop:

[Lee]

744273560265449474

:moop:

Most fieldwork from before Thursday though, and only margin of error movement. Polls are just herding to the mean, which happens.

The Telegraph has come out for Leave.

The Mail on Sunday for Remain. :D

No doubt the Daily Mail will be Leave though.

[GS]

The Mail on Sunday and the Daily Mail have been having a shit off on the issue for months. None of the declarations thus far have been a surprise, really.

One assumes "Rupert" knows what's happening underneath the surface of coverage and polling, otherwise he wouldn't have went all-in for Brexit in the manner he did.

[Lee]

The Mail on Sunday and the Daily Mail have been having a shit off on the issue for months. None of the declarations thus far have been a surprise, really.

One assumes "Rupert" knows what's happening underneath the surface of coverage and polling, otherwise he wouldn't have went all-in for Brexit in the manner he did.

He has hedged his bets, The Times has come out for Remain.

[GS]

He has hedged his bets, The Times has come out for Remain.

The Sun haven't backed the losing side in anything for decades - it's all tied up in that "The Sun Wot Won It" 'myth' from 1992. He'd give far more of a shit if the Sun was wrong than the Times.

[Lewis]

Vote Leave: Put Estate Agents Out of Work

That would swing it.

[GS]

The YouGov Sunday Times poll has Remain 44, Leave 43. They ascribe the move to a greater consideration of the economic impact of leaving.

If it's fought on the economy until Thursday, which it will be given Leave can't go heavy on their desired lines, then it's done. We've lost it, boys. It's been a good run.

[Lee]

Big swing in that one. You obviously feel how I did earlier this week.

For what it's worth I think the campaign being shut down for a couple of days has harmed Leave. Their message was getting through. I imagine it will still do so when hostilities resume. I'm taking nothing for granted based on a a single day of polling.

EDIT: Sunday Times says Leave.

[GS]

It'll have killed their momentum, which they needed to offset the inevitable swing to a status quo.

Two days won't be enough to reclaim it.

[Lee]

Two key findings in the Sunday Times poll:

The proportion of those polled who believe that Brexit will harm their finances has risen from 23% to 33%.

And undecideds are breaking 2:1 for Remain. This has also been detected by BMG and ComRes.

If this movement is real it sounds more like bottling than anything to do with Jo Cox. Although the biggest movements were in a poll taken after her death.

[GS]

Cameron turning up the smarm factor on Question Time.

He's such a complete wanker.

[Byron]

Yeah but he's always been a smarmy cunt.

[GS]

He's doing that stupid stance where his legs are about three metres apart.

[Lee]

First thing I noticed. :D

[Byron]

Let me guess, a lot of stiff gesticulating as well in an effort to look 'powerful'

[Lee]

How the fuck has "why have a referendum?" got applause?

[GS]

Hopefully he's just alienating people because everybody thinks he's a wanker.

[GS]

The smarm radar goes haywire as Cameron says so-and-so is "doing a brilliant job".

[Lee]

This thick bald cunt.:D

Cameron could do with dropping the "you're all confused, I don't want to baffle you with statistics" patronising though.

[GS]

Most of the people asking questions seem to be misinformed and / or thick. It almost reinforces the idea that "the people" shouldn't be allowed near decisions like this. :moop:

I reckon I could take Cameron apart in a one-on-one debate on this. If I lost, I'd just go and kick him in the bollocks which that stupid fucking stance is practically inviting everybody to do.

[Yevrah]

That bald guy was a complete tool.

Surely the "6 months and send them home" thing was an outright lie.

[Lee]

I think it's one of the things which he 'negotiated' isn't it?

They'd have been better served filling this audience with undecideds. It seems a 50:50 split between those who have decided either way which is a bit of a waste of time at this stage.

EDIT: Fuck it, should just have been Cameron and Dimbleby arguing.The latter is having to pick up the slack because the audience appears a bit stupid.

[Yevrah]

I think it's one of the things which he 'negotiated' isn't it?

There's no way that holds up.

[Lee]

If it goes through the parliament, which it will, then the only way it won't hold up is if our own government doesn't enforce it.

What is clear is that Cameron's electoral credibility is shot. Good job he isn't contesting another General Election.

EDIT: fucking hell this stupid bitch.