The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[Lewis]

I haven't actually heard an explanation as to why Vladimir Putin would want us to leave. If anything, he would want us in, slowing further integration (and the 'European Army') down. Has anyone asked him?

[GS]

I haven't actually heard an explanation as to why Vladimir Putin would want us to leave. If anything, he would want us in, slowing further integration (and the 'European Army') down. Has anyone asked him?

'Diminished power of the EU', presumably. Then again, he only bothers talking to Merkel and the best they can muster is a few sanctions. Meanwhile Vlad is going about trying to recreate the Russian Empire.

Great work, everyone.

[Lewis]

Michael Heseltine is on the news saying that Boris Johnson is having a MELTDOWN and that 'his judgement seems to be going'. That seems like a big call for somebody who has never been right about anything to make.

[GS]

Heseltine has repeatedly said we're going to end up joining the euro, as if that's a good thing. He's a plank.

[Raoul Duke]

I got my 'About the EU referendum' leaflet through the post today. Why have they used red and blue as the colours for the two arguments? Surely that'll just confuse plebs.

[GS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLxmmqnJBgiEBwrMoskhQaIOamCgM_aOvL&v=MGeDX-6DINM

[Boydy]

Lol at the state of that.

[GS]

It has an underlying wit to it.

[GS]

Paxman has done a programme for the BBC on the EU, which is actually quite good.

The fucking state of that place.

[Raoul Duke]

Gideon has been out squawking some nonsense today. Apparently if we Leave then house prices will drop 18%, which sounds excellent.

[Lewis]

Is that after they've requisitioned them for the war effort?

[Boydy]

They were saying that last week too.

[Byron]

I was looking at that thinking 'great, maybe I actually could buy a house then'

[niko_cee]

Of course, that 18% would see small rises in London and the South East and massive falls everywhere else.

[GS]

Osborne is disgracing his position as Chancellor with some of these claims, unfortunately.

[GS]

It appears that the Turkish parliament has passed a law which will allow the prosecution of opposition MPs - here (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nID=99434&NewsCatID=338). Then again, a panel of Greek judges has decided that Turkey isn't a safe country (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36345990). So maybe the Turkish deal will fall through regardless rather than giving Erdogan further legitimacy in-between his persecution of political opponents and resurrecting Kaiserreich-era laws to demand the prosecution of German comedians who insult him.

The Austrians, who you'd think would be more reticent about these things, also appear set to elect a fascist as head of state - here (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36343623). Top work, lads. Maybe they'll manage to gang up on him in the way the French do against the Front National when it looks like they might actually do something.

[Yevrah]

I'm almost definitely in the leave camp now.

[GS]

Yevrah. :cool:

What's swung it for you?

[Yevrah]

The absolute tidal wave of bullshit that's come from our utterly incompetent (and it must be said, hateful) George Osborne.

[GS]

You should watch the Paxman programme that was on earlier in the week on the BBC - you'll be seething about the EU by the end of it.

[phonics]

Let's not tell porkies, lads. George Osborne has been utterly incompetent and lying from his first day in office. He was just on your side then.

[GS]

And yet better than Labour would have been, thus ending the argument.

[Magic]

The absolute tidal wave of bullshit that's come from our utterly incompetent (and it must be said, hateful) George Osborne.

Mate the leave campaign have absolutely nothing in their argument apart from IMMIGRATION and I'm afraid that boat sailed a long time ago.

[Magic]

Having heard for two years a campaign based on ifs, buts and definitely maybes I'm perhaps more cynical to this shite.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cameron has said that he'd rather have a Labour government within the EU than a Conservative one outside it. What is he smoking?

Even if Remain wins, he's absolutely fucked this because he's basically spent it insulting most of the Tory voter base time after time after time. His kind will now lose the next battle for the party and I imagine Boris will win it pretty easily, once people realise that Theresa May is the worst person living today.

[Boydy]

And yet better than Labour would have been, thus ending the argument.

The logical extension of that is advocating not holding politicians to account if the opposition supposedly couldn't do any better (entirely subjective in itself).

[GS]

Mate the leave campaign have absolutely nothing in their argument apart from IMMIGRATION and I'm afraid that boat sailed a long time ago.

The Leave campaign have plenty in their argument, but immigration is probably their strongest card with the average voter. It's one of the reasons Labour is losing its core voter in the north. They've went on Turkey this weekend - whilst it's scaremongering, it also moves the debate away from the economic argument.


Cameron has said that he'd rather have a Labour government within the EU than a Conservative one outside it. What is he smoking?

Even if Remain wins, he's absolutely fucked this because he's basically spent it insulting most of the Tory voter base time after time after time. His kind will now lose the next battle for the party and I imagine Boris will win it pretty easily, once people realise that Theresa May is the worst person living today.

I think he's going to have to resign quite soon, because the eurosceptic wing of the party are never going to forgive him. They've tolerated him, and probably recognised his role in taking a majority last year, but you can't see a way back for him from here. The membership are broadly in favour of leaving - the big cabinet hitters who should be advocating remain, e.g. Javid, May, are supporting 'remain' as quietly as possible. Cameron, and by extension Osborne, are absolutely fucked after this. It'll serve him right too, given some of the shite he's come out with.

[GS]

The logical extension of that is advocating not holding politicians to account if the opposition supposedly couldn't do any better (entirely subjective in itself).

In the last election, you had a realistic choice between Miliband/Balls (with a likely coalition with the SNP to command the confidence of the Commons) or Cameron/Osborne. You may not have liked the latter, but if you believe the former are going to be worse then that's a perfectly legitimate reason to vote Tory. It's not like you're presented with a redoubtable list of candidates each election cycle - sometimes it's going to come down to who is likely to be the least shit.

[Lewis]

Cameron has said that he'd rather have a Labour government within the EU than a Conservative one outside it. What is he smoking?

That says it all really doesn't it? He even said that it is bigger than a general election because you can vote out shit governments. Good point, mate. Have you considered voting to leave?

[Boydy]

What Phonics said had fuck all to do with voting though.

[GS]

What Phonics said had fuck all to do with voting though.

No, but I suspect plenty of people were prepared to tolerate the Osborne bullshit because the alternative was perceived to be worse.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The logical extension of that is advocating not holding politicians to account if the opposition supposedly couldn't do any better (entirely subjective in itself).

What does 'holding to account' actually mean? Whining a bit?

[Boydy]

Yeah, sure, whining.

[GS]

Yeah, sure, whining.

The alternative options didn't convince the electorate they were worth voting for. That's the crux of it.

[SincereTheRebel]

Yo i can now vote in this. Where is the best place to educate myself about this whole saga?

[Jimmy Floyd]

'Tidal wave of shit' is very much the expression to describe what the Chancellor and his mate the PM have been coming out with today.

[GS]

I don't even know where you go with them at this point. Presumably their warnings need to get more dire as the day nears, but how much further can you go without looking ridiculous.

Sadiq Khan has chucked up the EU flag at City Hall as well. :D

[Lewis]

If we do vote to leave, how much of the leadership do you reckon will kill themselves rather than suffer the indignity of having the backbenchers do them in?

[GS]

Cameron and Osborne would have zero credibility and would have to resign. May and Javid et al are being far quieter about their support, whereas Cameron and Osborne are driving the train. The two of them will have alienated plenty, including many normal voters. We've covered it before, but Osborne especially is absolutely fucked from here.

I'm hoping for a Gove Premiership myself.

[Lewis]

Yeah, but imagine them holed up in their offices waiting for Bill Cash to knock on the door and 'Waaaaaaaay!' in their faces.

[GS]

Remain are going to win anyway, so they probably don't care. Too many people will shit themselves over the economic argument before the day.

[niko_cee]

This Newsnight negotiation skit is fairly lolworthy.

[Lewis]

Chuka Umunna really would have been a hopeless Labour leader. He makes Ed Miliband look substantial.

[GS]

Yep, the more you see him the more you think he's both wet and very, very shit. Maybe he realised that running in the last leadership election was only going to expose him and decided not to bother.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I reckon he would have won. The liberal left couldn't not vote for a black man.

[GS]

Corbyn would still have won given the state of the voting system last time out. They'll have to change it, otherwise they're doomed to have embittered old communists running the party into the ground for the next ten years. It's not as if this lot are prepared to compromise the purity of the cause to actually, you know, win.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah but for Corbyn to stand against Chucky would have been racist. Doubt he'd even have made the ballot paper.

The reason Corbz got on there was because even Labour hated their other candidates. If they'd had a black man to rally round for the moral high ground they'd have seized at the chance. A lot of voters would have done the same. Any black man.

[GS]

You may be right. It would be progressive, after all.

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjLP9jhWgAE55Kk.jpg

Matt really is the best.

[GS]

He really is great.

This one is a favourite:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03577/180216-MATT-WEB_3577071a.jpg

[Byron]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/did-treasury-exclude-scenario-that-wouldnt-show-brexit-reces?utm_term=.bxVPReNQK#.ugJa1e8Ld

The fact that this has come from fucking Buzzfeed of all places is galling.

[phonics]

Buzzfeeds an excellent journalistic news source at this point. They're better funded with more researchers and editors than most newspapers nowadays.

[Shindig]

The problem with an exit is you're being a lot more hypothetical when it comes to forecasting. I've got a leaflet in the post which pits £350m a week of savings (supporting an exit) contrasted with the £91bn the EU membership apparently grants our economy. Now, it could just be poorly written or just a complete lack of concrete facts courtesy of a scenario that we're not honestly experienced at dealing with, but those numbers don't half favour staying put. The page devoted to leaving solely focuses on that saving. Meanwhile the page devoted to remaining adds some stuff about trade and jobs.

If the leave campaign has an actual plan, can I be directed to it, please?

[GS]

A major weakness of the leave campaign is that they've effectively conceded that there would be a short-term economic shock. This is fucking daft, because a lot of people won't care about what we're doing in 2030 if they think they'll be out of a job by 2017.

To answer your question, there is no 'actual plan' that exists - largely because the exact parameters of the post-secession relationship would form part of the exit negotiations between the UK and the EU. Various options have been floated - membership like Norway, Switzerland or perhaps a trading relationship under WTO rules - in terms of our relationship with the EU, whilst the nature of any bilateral treaties we would conclude as a sovereign country with non-EU countries or trading blocs thereafter can't be accurately scoped at present. The major selling point in favour of leaving is that we will control the trading arrangements, insofar as we'll be able to negotiate with the right partners and with the right provisions to better suit our economy and not the whole EU of which we form a single-digit percentage.

In the interests of balance (alright), it really needs to be stressed that Remain aren't acknowledging that there is no status quo here. Some of the EU-wide trading agreements that have been negotiated by Brussels, and which are ongoing, appear to be dodgy in the extreme - specifically TTIP (with the Americans) and, to a less extent, CETA (with the Canadians).

The assumptions underpinning that £91bn are also certainly hokum, whilst that £350m a week doesn't consider the rebate. Both sides are being dishonest, unfortunately. And both sides are engaging in second-rate scaremongering. Remain are simply doing it more effectively because they're 'the establishment' and can thus claim more credibility than 'plucky outsiders'.

[Shindig]

Plus remain have more data to pull from to bolster their argument. The thing I'll say about staying put is that, being in a union means that all members wind up being treated equally. It's probably not the case and one nation's needs differ from another but, changing the rules for one member would ultimately piss others off. And, if we opt out, the EU will likely be more difficult to work with, unless we've got some serious bargaining chips. I guess ideally, Westminster would love to dictate to the EU but doing that is like fighting a hornet hive with an ASBO.

My, what a speculative post.

[GS]

All members aren't treated equally, in my view. The Eurozone countries, particularly France, have made it very clear that they will not allow a situation where a non-Eurozone country (i.e. us) are able to impede further integration and 'ever closer union' within the Eurozone itself. Of the 28 countries in the union, 19 are in the Eurozone and can operate as an effective working majority where needed. The EU are already a nightmare to work with - one need only look at complete absence of substance from David Cameron's 'renegotiation' to see what happens when one attempts to challenge central diktats. Even though there would appear to be a genuine risk of a secession, they couldn't bring themselves to concede any meaningful reform.

For me, advocating a Remain vote requires you to acknowledge that we have ceded our ability to act independently and in our own interests where required - instead passing the responsibility for many areas over to Brussels. I also think you can only really advocate a Remain position if you support joining the single currency, because that's the way the institution is going - its direction of travel, if you will. If it was a free trade organisation only, I'd be all for it - but it isn't and it's making small, seemingly meaningless little power grabs here and there, and it's managed to get to a point where the latest HoC estimate (see the Paxman programme on the BBC) is that 59% of our laws come from there. The elected representatives aren't proposing the laws either - they only operate as the fucking revising chamber.

There is no status quo here. It's further integration and further cession of sovereignty or cutting the head off the hydra now, accept the probable short term shock and we're in a far stronger position in the years ahead. Otherwise we'll end up in a single currency which has been wholly discredited by the disastrous situation in Greece and the general misery, particularly in youth unemployment, that has been brought to the southern nation states e.g. Spain, Italy. Then again, there may be an Italian banking collapse before then which sees Italy tumble out of the Euro and causes another Eurozone-wide recession before the next election.

[Lewis]

I saw a similar point about voting remain on Twitter. The twats advocating it will now have to own everything the European Union does and defend it with their lives. If they try to dump a load of refugees on us, well, sorry lads, but you wanted us to stay in. If they want to sink the City of London, well fucking hell, at least we avoided the Third World War. This is particularly the case for those who have been most vocal pressing the 'reformed European Union' bollocks. I thought you protected us from the worst of it, Dave, mate? Why are they making us prop up Italy?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm amazed by the ferocity with which they've gone for it. It's not a strategic position at all. It smacks of something quite desperate being at stake for them (Dave and Gids, this is).

I suppose they don't want to be the ones who lost the party to a lolling Jacob Rees-Mogg. That's what this is all about. Internal Tory stuff.

[phonics]

Not technically EU but wut?

735388796963958784

[niko_cee]

There were reports here about there not being much petrol in the north of France due to some (industrial?) dispute or other, so it's probably that.

[Disco]

I wonder what the farmers burn in the road for a fuel dispute.

[Byron]

Yeah, industrial action has meant all eight of France's oil refineries have shut down.

[GS]

I saw a similar point about voting remain on Twitter. The twats advocating it will now have to own everything the European Union does and defend it with their lives. If they try to dump a load of refugees on us, well, sorry lads, but you wanted us to stay in. If they want to sink the City of London, well fucking hell, at least we avoided the Third World War. This is particularly the case for those who have been most vocal pressing the 'reformed European Union' bollocks. I thought you protected us from the worst of it, Dave, mate? Why are they making us prop up Italy?

This is it. Two or three more crises and the public figures who've advocated remain will find it difficult to row back from their previous statements. Then again, statements in support of joining the Euro seem to have been largely airbrushed from the public record so who knows.


I'm amazed by the ferocity with which they've gone for it. It's not a strategic position at all. It smacks of something quite desperate being at stake for them (Dave and Gids, this is).

I suppose they don't want to be the ones who lost the party to a lolling Jacob Rees-Mogg. That's what this is all about. Internal Tory stuff.

I'm equally amazed - it's like the lesson they've learnt from the Scottish referendum is to just go MASSIVE on FEAR early doors. Then it doesn't look like they've panicked at the last minute.

[GS]

Not technically EU but wut?

735388796963958784

#strongerin

[Lewis]

736301067055599616

Fair play. That's brave.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Brave and stupid. Brillo will crucify him. Unless he brings out Classic Gids with non-shit hair and laughing at the poor.

[GS]

Agree with Jimmy. Brillo isn't Paxman, in the sense that it's seen as some sort of rite of passage. He could ruin him. It's not buried on a Sunday morning either. It's a huge, huge risk.

Also agree with Jimmy that hopefully Brillo won't use it as an opportunity to go back six years. It's about the EU referendum, so hopefully he sticks to that rather than trying to shove every question he's ever wanted to ask him into one programme.

[GS]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjjHu2MVAAIMEm8.jpg:large

The state of this. The Europe "median" is 35, for fuck sake.

[GS]

The postal voting is subtle about it, anyway:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjnqhHZWkAAkoHe.jpg

[Lewis]

Tony Blair doing the rounds confirms that he is mental. His fan club must be limited to the Cabinet and a few journalists by now, yet there he is.

[GS]

He's just doing the pre-Chilcot groundwork so it doesn't look as if he's 'appeared from nowhere' to defend himself.

I read earlier he's intending to reject its findings which would be wholly unsurprising even for him.

[phonics]

Why has everyone chosen today to try murder Cameron?

[GS]

We're into the purdah period and this is the first round of Sunday morning shows since. It means no more ridiculous government reports about the prospects of Brexit, so they have a clear run to stick the boot in.

[Lee]

No more bollocks has come from Cameron or Osborne than has come from the out side. They're all full of shit; that's what happens in election campaigns. Lol at the Tories about to rip themselves apart over Europe again.

[GS]

I don't think much trumps suggestions that world war three is around the corner if we chuck it. And whatever your view on economic forecasts, the wholly inadequate methodology that gets you to "£4,300, mate" shouldn't be coming from an official government source. It's different if it's some independent economist, because then you can lol your way out of it.

[Lewis]

Alan Johnson said that leaving would make us a 'less obvious home for major world sporting events'. It's just bizarre, and I bet they actually do believe it.

[GS]

Alan Johnson said that leaving would make us a 'less obvious home for major world sporting events'. It's just bizarre, and I bet they actually do believe it.

I think they do believe it, and I think it's because they think the alternative to being in the EU must be some sort of 'splendid isolationism' akin to 1920s America.

[phonics]

It will be. Why this lot are so desperate to become Switzerland with zero of the democratic processes makes no sense to me. Instead of voting twice a year every five years to be not represented, you'll vote once. Nice.

[GS]

It won't be. It's not as if we won't co-operate or trade with anyone if we leave. Stop talking shite.

[GS]

Instead of voting twice a year every five years to be not represented, you'll vote once. Nice.

Since you edited this point in, I'll cover it now.

We elect members of parliament, who initiate legislation and have the Parliament Act to force it through if the revising chamber try and delay it. If a party does a shit job, they are voted out and another party comes in.

This isn't the case with the EU, in that we don't have the power to kick out those with the right of legislative initiative. Ergo, any number of shit laws can keep being proposed and we, as an electorate, can do fuck all about it.

If you can't at least recognise the massive democratic issues with this, then you should read more about it.

[phonics]

Yes you do, you just have a lower proportion of representation. There are a million issues with the EU, us electing 100 something people with almost no effect being one of them. To claim it's less democratic is dumb.

[GS]

Yes you do, you just have a lower proportion of representation.

No, we don't. The Commission exercises a virtual monopoly on legislative initiative. We do not directly elect these individuals, and therefore their positions are not held through direct democratic mandate. Even if these positions were elected, our country of c. 65 million would exercise control over the selection of 1/28th of the members thereof. Ireland, with a population of c. 7m, has the same number of representatives as we do.

We are not able to directly vote for someone else if we dislike the job our Commissioners are doing. Even if we could, we could only vote 1/28th or 3.6% of the sitting members. That isn't democracy.

If you want to stay in the European Union, that's fine. But at least have the decency to acknowledge the democratic void that exists in the way it operates.

[phonics]

If its not democratic than its failures are the failures of your elected officials.

[GS]

What does that even mean?

[Byron]

I was thinking that myself. I can only assume he means the failure of our elected officials to gain meaningful reform? Which if so is a pointless argument given your previous post

[GS]

There's an interesting comparison between the EU Commission and the House of Lords, actually. Take Caroline Lucas. Absolutely resolute in her defence of the EU and yet her maiden speech in parliament advocated the abolition of the House of Lords (http://www.carolinelucas.com/latest/my-maiden-speech-in-parliament).

Where one strips out the Lords Spiritual and the ninety-two hereditary peers, the significant majority of the remainder - and thus a significant majority of the house itself - are appointed at the recommendation of the Prime Minister; ergo the executive branch of government. In the same way, our commissioner is appointed by the executive branch of government. It's the same system of appointment; that is, there is no direct democratic mandate from the electorate for appointment to either body.

The practical contrasts are fundamental and are actually in favour of the House of Lords and its role; that is, they demonstrate the complete democratic void that exists in the EU's governance structures. The HoL doesn't hold legislative initiative and the aforementioned Parliament Act allows those with direct democratic mandate to force bills through irrespective of opposition in the second chamber. In practice, it's solely a revising chamber. In contrast, the commission holds legislative initiative and the EU has the wholly undemocratic option of completely circumventing the entire elected chamber and issuing a regulation which immediately takes effect and supersedes all existing legislation, national or continental, in a state's legal system.

In practice, therefore, unelected appointees are responsible for the laws which we must adopt with no ability of the electorate in this country to do a single thing about it. If one advocated the HoL taking legislative initiative and having the constitutional capacity to issue laws from that chamber without the input of those with a direct democratic mandate, there would be a constitutional crisis and outcry the like of which hasn't been since 1936. How can you possibly reconcile those two positions - staying in the EU and demanding HoL reform? You can't, given the former is significantly more dangerous to democratic values than the latter. Whatever your views on the economics of the argument either way, the principles under which the EU's legislative processes operate are indefensible. It should surely be anathema to the left, yet they are the ones more in favour of staying in. I find it genuinely extraordinary.

The more I read about the EU and the way it operates, and try to get my head around the different aspects of it all, the more convinced I'm becoming that it's a complete racket. Not one that is well-intentioned, either. No individual in Brussels holding a direct mandate from the people of this country can initiate legislation, and yet it constitutes a significant percentage of our laws (it could well be over half, according to the HoC) implemented since Maastricht.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Most of the left wing arguments for staying in Europe seem to be founded on either hating Britain, or being furious that people don't vote for them.

[GS]

Most of the left wing arguments for staying in Europe seem to be founded on either hating Britain, or being furious that people don't vote for them.

Given the absence of logic in their arguments, this would certainly appear to be true.

[Byron]

I'm surprised myself. I consider myself a lefty and I'm voting Leave on the basis that I will not remain part of an EU that controls a sovereign nation through bankers and capitalism.

My socialism has come full circle to align with Nigel-fucking-Farage of all people.

[Byron]

Given the absence of logic in their arguments, this would certainly appear to be true.

Yawn. We're agreed on this issue but the constant lefty bashing gets tedious after a while.

[GS]

I'm surprised myself. I consider myself a lefty and I'm voting Leave on the basis that I will not remain part of an EU that controls a sovereign nation through bankers and capitalism.

My socialism has come full circle to align with Nigel-fucking-Farage of all people.

It's not really lefty bashing, as such - I do, however, have a major problem with socialism in that it's a system which simply can't work. I'm always surprised when intelligent people advocate it.

[niko_cee]

I'm not sure it "simply can't work". It just tends not to as scale increases.

[GS]

It can't work because it goes against too many people's self-interest - people tend to want personal and familial advancement. Socialism says that you can't do that as an individual, because everything you do must be for the collective. That sense of collective requires every participant in the system to be altruistic all of the time and never to act in their own self-interest. Some people can be altruistic all of the time, all people (well, the vast majority) can be altruistic some of the time, but the logical next step for either of those isn't that all people can be altruistic all of the time.

In its bluntest terms, that's why it can't work. Capitalism is imperfect, but it harnesses this basic human instinct for advancement and turns it into something 'socially useful'. Where socialism really falls down is that the only mechanism by which it can force people to adhere to the system when it's not working for them personally is through coercion and the threat of prosecution if they don't contribute in the fashion designated for them by the organisers of the system.

It just can't work.

It's a separate discussion to the EU referendum, mind.

[Pepe]

Nice snakesplanation of socialism right there. Think I'll add it to the wikipedia article.

[GS]

Niko suggested it could work. I outlined why I thought it couldn't, with a secondary reason for the post being that is also outlines why I don't buy into leftist ideology.

If you want to think I'm patronising you rather than outlining my own view, that's probably more of a reflection on you than anything else.

[Pepe]

Not really patronizing. It's just that you have such a stupid view on things that there really is nowhere to go.

[GS]

It would be interesting (genuinely) if you outlined why you think socialism works and why the attempts to implement it e.g. Venezuela have been such a disaster.

I'm genuinely interested, because you presumably have an alternative and persuasive view to argue.

[Pepe]

people tend to want personal and familial advancement. Socialism says that you can't do that as an individual

Wrong


because everything you do must be for the collective.

Wrong


That sense of collective requires every participant in the system to be altruistic all of the time

Wrong

Nice try.

[GS]

Wrong



Wrong



Wrong

Nice try.

I think you may be confusing socialism as defined by the OED with social democracies of the Scandinavian model.

[Pepe]

A political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

Care to point out the part that says 'no individual advancement,' 'everything you do must be for the collective,' or 'everyone must be altruistic?'

[GS]

Care to point out the part that says 'no individual advancement,' 'everything you do must be for the collective,' or 'everyone must be altruistic?'

It's the logical next step when one considers what the consequences of socialism are and how one maintains the integrity of the system as there described. A key goal of socialism is to eradicate the supposed exploitation of the worker and rid the world of the supposed inequalities arising from capitalism. If you act with self-interest, from a material perspective, you undermine the community which owns / regulates the means of production and distribution for the supposed benefit of everyone - because then the system isn't working for the benefit of everyone, you're bending it to make it work more for you than for other people.

Self-interest and looking out for oneself is one of the reasons why you end up with corruption inherent at every level in socialist countries, a rebellion against the organised and regulated nature of the system itself, and why there tends to be a thriving black market to circumvent those restrictions. You can generally spot the lads in charge, because they weigh about four stone more than everybody else.

[Lewis]

Most of the left wing arguments for staying in Europe seem to be founded on either hating Britain, or being furious that people don't vote for them.

Logically (arf), it's an argument for a benevolent dictatorship.

[Boydy]

This is good:

However we vote, the elites will win the EU referendum

http://gu.com/p/4jqx5?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[Jimmy Floyd]

One cast-iron guarantee in our polarising age is that this unedifying chauvinism is only going to get uglier. The other certainty is that whether you back red or black in the tawdry, crumbling casino of neoliberalism, and whatever the slimy croupiers of the mainstream media urge, it’s the house that invariably wins.

Irvine Welsh writes for the Guardian

[GS]

This is good:

However we vote, the elites will win the EU referendum

http://gu.com/p/4jqx5?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

:harold:

I think I might have to give up reading the Guardian.

[Byron]

I find it hard to believe you read it anyway.

[GS]

I'm sure you'll be surprised to know the Telegraph is my paper of choice, but the Guardian is free online and I like to challenge my views sometimes. That said, the holier-than-thou content of their comment columns is starting to take the complete piss. To be blunt, it was this absolute shite (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/04/racism-gerry-adams-n-word-fetishise-bloopers-cumberbatch) that was the beginning of the end.


He shouldn’t have done that. He was wrong. But his attempt to explain it in the context of the nationalist community’s treatment in Northern Ireland makes sense.

To judge Adams, who has a life’s work of internationalism and antiracist solidarity, by a single tweet borders on the grotesque. People should be assessed on the body of their work, not just on a single off-colour statement. That doesn’t mean the statement should be ignored. But to fetishise it above a person’s record does a disservice not just to the person but to the issue.

I mean, fucking really.

[GS]

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 14m14 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 51% (-4)
Leave: 46% (+4)
(via ORB, phone)

The polling really is all over the show.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It'll probably be like the jock referendum in that it'll get tight and Remain will properly shit the bed before ultimately winning. Although to be honest I just want it to be over because it's been absolutely dreadful on both sides from start to finish.

[GS]

It'll be interesting to see what the turnout ends up being. It won't be getting near jock levels, you wouldn't think.

[Lewis]

Dave's post-Jock vote speech seemed to cut a line between claiming that the issue was settled (lol) and actually responding to the unexpected closeness of the result, so it should be interesting to see whether a close run thing in this will lead him to acknowledge the risks of just bumbling on without any further attempts at reform.

[GS]

It depends how pissed off the hardline eurosceptics are. On This Week last week, Portillio suggested there were about 40 genuine hardliners (at a best guess) who would simply never forgive Cameron and Osborne, which is enough to absolutely torpedo his agenda.

[phonics]

737617383439765504

Strong campaigns from both sides.

[GS]

737654643778543617

Poor campaigns from both sides, but it seems there has been some sort of swing to Leave in the last week.

[phonics]

Did anyone just see that Inside/Outside the EU advert that went on for nearly an hour then. It was incredible. When we're inside the EU there will be one black nurse to deal with your sick mother, inside the EU there will be the same black nurse and a white nurse. Inside the EU you will be consulted by a handsome Doctor in the waiting room before being treated and cured of whatever disease had her crying while outside of the EU where you still haven't been seen.

It's great television.

edit: Typical, it's crashed VoteLeave.co.uk

http://i.imgur.com/UEqtBpS.png

edit2: This is the one I was talking about (16,000 views...)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtlGN8wVnis

[Lee]

737654643778543617

Poor campaigns from both sides, but it seems there has been some sort of swing to Leave in the last week.

The two polls showing a swing to leave were conducted over the bank holiday. Bank holiday polls have often had dodgy samples historically.

There might have been a change, of course. But a seven point swing either way in the space of a week seems a bit of a stretch. Best to exercise some caution, I'd suggest. Most polls are showing no real change.

[GS]

This is it, although the only reason it merits further consideration as a 'significant' change is that it follows on the back of another phone poll showing a similar swing. I find it difficult to believe that there would be a swing of 8 points (in the first phone poll) or 11 points (in this one) in the space of a week - but two phone polls by two different companies does suggest something may have altered the narrative sufficiently to move them.

As you suggest, though, let's see what happens in the next week or so to see whether they're anomalies or represent a genuine shift.

[Boydy]

What happens next if Britain votes to leave the EU? (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/31/what-happens-next-if-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu)

Sounds like a right ballache.

[GS]

Because the Guardian have no interest in making it sound as difficult as possible.

[niko_cee]

The problem is that the idea of "treating Britain as an example to others", at undoubtedly massive cost to their own peoples, is exactly the sort of shit the EU apparatchiks would be all over. The only thing that would likely save Britain in those circumstances is that the Eurozone ship would probably sink first, which would be unfortunate for those hellbent on ever closer union.

The timing of this referendum is all wrong anyway. Of course, it is opportunistic in the extreme, but we(you)'re going to be here again in the not too distant future when the Eurozone comes for the City.

[GS]

I suspect the unelected officials like Juncker would be all over it, because they'd want to 'set an example' to any other prospective leavers to demonstrate that it's not worth their while. Juncker has said as much. It's effectively a policy of coercion, which tends not to end very well for the coercer. His like are also committed to the "European Project" to such a degree that they could quite accurately be termed a zealot. I suspect he will be personally FURIOUS if we chucked it, aghast that anybody wouldn't want to be part of it all - like it's some sort of Holy Roman Empire for the modern age.

My suspicion is that the elected politicians in the decision making process e.g. Merkel, Hollande, with domestic elections coming up, won't want to piss off their own industries and will, if only for domestic consumption, recognise the reality of the situation. For all the talk of tariffs etc., what would the EU get out of it other than cutting its nose off to spite its face?

To be blunt, it all comes back to the point that if they're prepared to be Machiavellian shits over our leaving because they're SEETHING about it, then why in the fuck would you want to be in an organisation with shitehawks with a blatant disregard for democratic process.

Their first suggestion will probably be to hold off invoking Article 50 and run the referendum again until we get the correct answer.

[Lewis]

I would do an Ian Smith. Tell them to fuck off, and then dare them not to trade. He even had the slogan: 'Rhodesia can not only take it, but she can also make it'. :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've long thought this is a pointless referendum anyway, since the long term choice is between leaving and joining the Eurozone, not this meaningless fudge. With that in mind, you have to wonder what Cameron is actually playing at, other than keeping his London dinner party inivitations coming in.

[niko_cee]

Settling the question for a generation without asking the actual question. Then they can QMV and government fudge their way to a superstate without needing to ask again.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Look at the state of George Osborne's twitter. Just look at it. The Chancellor of the Exchequer.

[Lewis]

Some 58pc of the public believe that their living standards would stay the same in the five years after a UK withdrawal from the EU, according to an Ipsos Mori survey of more than 4,000 Britons. A further 11pc expect that their financial well being would actually improve if voters decided to leave the political bloc behind on June 23... More than four in ten, 44pc, believe that Britain would be in a strong position to negotiate free trade agreements after a Brexit vote, compared with just 27pc who think the opposite.

That (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/31/two-thirds-of-people-think-brexit-would-not-leave-them-any-poore/) is pretty lol, all things considered, and suggests that a decent series of telly debates could do the business.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't want to think about how hilarious a Leave vote would be, regardless of its merits. You could basically write off the careers of about 75% of the current political class.

[Lewis]

The 'progressive' SEETHE at being taken out of it by pensioners and Sun readers will surely eclipse anything we've ever seen.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I reckon there should be a maximum voting age of 60, as anyone older than that can't be trusted to use their vote in the long term interests of everyone.

[Bartholomert]

So to what extent is there a legitimate probability that Britain might actually leave the EU, versus this being the usual emotionally and politically expedient scapegoating of the "other", and where when the times comes to vote, ultimately enough people will BOTTLE IT so that we'll end up with 55-45 for Remain.

[GS]

That (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/31/two-thirds-of-people-think-brexit-would-not-leave-them-any-poore/) is pretty lol, all things considered, and suggests that a decent series of telly debates could do the business.

It depends whether people have engaged so far or not. Part of the problem the remain side have is that by going to the extreme ends of what could happen, they've nowhere left to go. Things can't get progressively worse from here - they've already suggested World War III and some sort of great modern-era depression. If people are engaged, and have basically lolled at it, they're in bother. If people haven't engaged, then you could see those figures change.

I think Vote Leave are doing a handy job on the immigration aspect this week, mind you. If they could somehow establish a credible economic alternative (which they seem to have done with trade agreements from that poll) then they'd be winning on the two big issues which people have cited as being the most important in how they're going to vote.

Suggesting that we have an immigration policy that is actually discriminatory is quite a clever way of putting it when you want to assuage concerns of people who've been conditioned to think they're racist or xenophobic for not agreeing with it.


I don't want to think about how hilarious a Leave vote would be, regardless of its merits. You could basically write off the careers of about 75% of the current political class.

Labour would surely cease to exist at that point, given there's barely a single big-hitter in the party who's come out for Leave.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They don't exist anyway. Jezza wants to leave really but he's not telling.

The Leave campaign is basically a shambles but people prefer that to the sort of corporate intimidation effort that Remain have used.

[GS]

I genuinely don't see where Labour go from here, although I've been saying that since they elected the beard.

The remain camp have been bloody awful, as you say. It's basically the Prime Minister of the United fucking Kingdom prostituting himself for endorsements of his view. I mean, for fuck sake.

[Lewis]

Jezza gave a big speech today where he called George Osborne a twat for his 'myth-making', and said he wants more immigration. Nice one, lad. I think that is why Dickhead Twitter is trying to make a journalist getting booed the main story.

[GS]

He complained bitterly about TTIP as well, as if Jezza can ride to the rescue and stop it.

He so clearly wants to leave, as well. It's a shame this "man of principle" has caved in to the party's demands.

[GS]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/75643/shadow-minister-vote-brexit-and-get-‘worse’-tory-pm

The state of that. They genuinely can't accept that people voted for someone else. 50.7% voted for right or centre-right parties at the general election, lads.

[Lewis]

It's hard to know what to make of this Sky News thing, since Dave isn't so much answering questions as saying 'nine out of ten economists' like a stuck record. He did get lolled at over the Third World War thing though. Twat.

[Lewis]

He isn't actually doing bad on his own terms, repeating his bollocks, but you can tell that nobody believes him (and that he knows it).

[Raoul Duke]

I think people have basically tuned out of soundbite bollocks now. That interview where Miliband was just repeating the same phrase killed it. It's only interesting when they run amok and start cussing China.

[GS]

The moment when the audience fall about laughing at Cameron over the WW3 thing can't be good for him at all. Our Prime Minister is literally being laughed at en masse for being a wanker.

[Shindig]

I could conceivably imagine a situation where an exit fucks us massively and the electorate gimps turn on Cameron because they all thought it was his idea.

"Well, it was on his watch, innit?"

Fuck, I hate everything about this referendum.

[GS]

I'm about to watch Neil Hamilton and Owen Jones have a shit off on Question Time, so political discourse can plumb much lower depths than you'd imagine.

[GS]

I'm catching up on this In or Out programme on Sky, and David Cameron has managed to make 'the single market' synonymous with 'the European Union' and has cited his 'renegotiation' about eighty times in 25 minutes.

Cunt.

[Shindig]

His argument would be made much easier if he just went, "Who's with NPower? Who's with EDF?" and then watched the hands go up. People underestimate just how much business we do with Europe and, by extension, how much more expansive it could be outside the Union.

[Lewis]

'Has everyone heard of Peter Mandelson? Has everyone heard of Peter Mandelson? Right. Then, okay... Then who's this? "I do not believe you wanted to do that! Only me!"'

[GS]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkCTu3-WUAAouLf.jpg

Going well, Jeremy, mate.

[GS]

Other polling from today, if anybody cares:

738759795713409025

738701425048485888

738702107449143296

738702828563206144

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't know what software the good people at YouGov are using for those 'snap polls' (I worked there for a bit, a handful of moons ago) but I doubt they're properly weighted.

[Yevrah]

What's in store for the tv coverage on the night and will we get results by constituency or just a big bang remain or leave at 3 in the morning?

[GS]

http://interactive.news.sky.com/SMSXIX_EU2_030616_FP.pdf

I doubt that helps, mind.

[GS]

What's in store for the tv coverage on the night and will we get results by constituency or just a big bang remain or leave at 3 in the morning?

We'll know fairly quickly which way the wind is blowing, I expect.

[Lewis]

Michael Gove. :cool:

[Lewis]

Faisal Islam seems to think this is about him. Shut up, mate.

[Lewis]

Is it too late to shunt 'Boris' out of the other debates? He would have fallen to bits there.

[GS]

I'm about to catch up.

[Boydy]

Can't wait for another one of your hot takes.

[Lewis]

'Gaseous Takes' could be a great live reaction YouTube channel.

[GS]

It would go above Boydy's head unless it featured chronic indecision and cat gifs.

Gove did very well there, I thought.

[Boydy]

http://i.imgur.com/vJkqtfW.gif

[GS]

3,424 votes and barely one worth engaging with.

Some record.

[Boydy]

The UK's EU referendum: Eddie Izzard debates Brexit with Sammy Wilson (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36438971)

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10E61/production/_89871296_eddieandsammy.jpg

:D

[Boydy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT9pjyMH6so

Why is that daft old twat still getting airtime?

Gordon Brown was right.

[GS]

BBC Newsnight were canvassing opinions from as wide a range of people as possible for a feature.

You'd be all over it if she was some embittered old socialist who'd supported the miners.

[GS]

Watching Marr, John Major, of ERM and Maastricht fame, is properly SEETHING.

It's remarkable how far he's prepared to effectively insult the country as being incapable of doing anything itself.

[Magic]

Postal votes are here, lads.

[GS]

Watching Marr, John Major, of ERM and Maastricht fame, is properly SEETHING.

It's remarkable how far he's prepared to effectively insult the country as being incapable of doing anything itself.

It seems that Downing Street sent Major onto the programme with the express instruction of discrediting Boris. Apparently he wobbled about the wisdom of it, but was 'pressed' and went on. It's a mental state of affairs, because you have a Conservative executive asking a former Conservative PM to go on national TV with the active goal of destroying another major Tory figure's credibility. Cameron must be shitting himself about losing.

[Shindig]

Yep. Everyone comes out of it two-faced. "Bloody government... that I'm in."

[Lewis]

Everyone knows that Downing Street 'deploys' John Major when it wants to put a respectable (which he probably is simply by not being Tony Blair) face to its bollocks.

[GS]

Which is fine, but you can't have him suggesting that giving Boris, Gove and IDS control of the NHS would be as safe as "leaving your pet hamster in a room with a python".

They're only doing it because Boris is considered 'trusted' by the public and they need to ruin his personal appeal, but the longer-term damage to the party is becoming more and more difficult to fix. They're basically writing Labour's attack ads for the next election.

Prescott was on Sunday Politics as well, suggesting that if we left we'd be "some little country shouting from the sideline". Fucking listen to yourself, you cunt.

[Lewis]

I like the fact that John Major is the least discredited/most trustworthy person they can call upon.

[GS]

Earlier today, the new head of one of Britain's biggest unions, the GMB, urged his members - and Labour supporters more generally - to cast an "angry Remain" vote in the referendum.

Tim Roache told Sky News that "the EU is far from perfect" but that the best hope for getting reform was from within.

"Europe has brought many rights for working people," he continued, on health and safety, maternity leave, and so on, and it was was "nonsense" for Labour MP and Leave campaigner Kate Hoey to say those sorts of rights were already well in train before the involvement of the EU.

He also said it was not migrants who should be blamed for taking British jobs, but the "greedy employers" who brought them to this country and the UK government which had done nothing to stop them.

What's the thought process here, exactly?

[Byron]

I've read that several times and I'm not sure what the point is. We've tried reform from within, it's not worked so why bother carrying on?

[Lewis]

The political class hates the British public, and the European Union protects them from it. Speaking of the political class, I read Peter Oborne's Guilty Men last night, and, whilst the appendix of mental Euro scare quotes (peaking with one academic report predicting eight million job losses) is brilliant, it primarily serves as another handy reminder of what a deranged cunt Tony Blair is.

[GS]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/david-cameron-intensifies-tory-civil-war-by-uniting-with-leaders/

Proper Ramsay MacDonald territory, that.

[GS]

https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/polls.png?w=900

The YouGov poll finds immigration is the key issue for voters.

[Lewis]

Andrew Neil is going to give everyone such a bumming this week.

[GS]

You'd almost feel sorry for Hilary Benn.

Christ knows what he could do to Farage. IDS has taken him on on these issues on the Sunday Politics before, so he should be less shit.

You have to wonder how Osborne is going to cope.

[Lewis]

Why is he even doing this? Did that shitty Syria speech trick people into thinking he's a substantial politician?

[GS]

Labour barely have a substantial political figure left in their party. They could put Andy Burnham up, but then Brillo would lol him out of the studio completely.

I obviously have a somewhat biased view, but Benn struggled massively on that. It doesn't help him that 'Jeremy' is about as transparent a closer leaver as you'd hope to find.

[GS]

His point on 'peace in Europe' as a result of the EU is the one I find by far the most grinding. It's moralistic bollocks.

If we'd tried forcing through the Treaty of Rome in the thirties, you'd have been lolled out of the continent.

[GS]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/why-eu-leaders-are-not-speaking-out-about-brexit-a-1094261.html

It's quite interesting reading about the behind the scenes things like this.

[Lewis]

You would lol if we vote to stay in and that foreign policy document is mental.

[GS]

I imagine there are a few things in the pipeline which the Brexit camp would be able to seize on, which is presumably why they're holding fire on everything.

The European Army is probably in it. No doubt there'll end up being friendly fire when it transpires that, in fact, most of the soldiers can't understand each other.

[Boydy]

http://i66.tinypic.com/23rl2x1.jpg

It's unlikely for the remain vote to fall outside the 45-55% range, isn't it?

Although maybe not because I guess the polls are taking undecideds into account.

[GS]

I think it'll be 54-46 to Remain, but that's hardly a barometer of anything.

[Lewis]

Don't fuck it up, Nigel, you dickhead.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is just a total war bullshitter.

[Lewis]

Somebody (Dan Hodges I think) said that the problem with these things is that questioners increasingly seem to turn up with their shitty 'THIS WOMAN OWNED...' viral article in mind.

[Lewis]

He's got his passport out. Abandon ship.

[GS]

The problem with Farage is that no matter what he says, he's just not going to persuade the people you need to persuade.

It's a bit dodgy inviting him rather than someone from the official campaign. Not that you want to get into conspiracy theories - it's just a shit editorial decision, and one that's quite difficult to justify.

In saying that, these lads who are asking the questions are thick as fuck. The point about "I don't understand who isn't elected" - go and find out, you dickhead.

Hopefully the Leave campaign get out of this with a nil-nil draw. It depends how much of a bollocking or otherwise Cameron gets here, I suppose.

[Spikey M]

This is just a load of people with unchangable opinions shouting at each other.

It would be helpful if either side could concede that the EU is neither all great or all shite. And knock the the lazy 'racist' stuff on the fucking head n'all.

[GS]

"Single market" bingo from Cameron here. Change the fucking record, you wanker.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

That black woman just accusing Farage of being a racist is a complete waste of oxygen. They never seem to understand that wanting controlled immigration isn't 'anti-immigration'.

[Lewis]

This Asian giving it the big'un on immigration must be messing with a few heads.

[Spikey M]

Only white people care about that stuff, Loubear.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Cameron is going to lose this quite heavily in the Tory heartlands, from what I can sense. He'll need to win the cities and the suburbs.

[Spikey M]

Dave has cranked the smarm right up for this.

[GS]

Cameron's doing well, but most of the questions haven't exactly been 120mph bouncers.

[Spikey M]

I bet his pub is a fucking riot.

[GS]

That was dull.

Cameron just spouted speeches he's been making for months.

[Lee]

It was a poor show full stop. I thought Farage was weak and Cameron has painted himself into a position from which the most positive thing he can say for his stance is "the EU is shit but being outside would be even more shit". The campaign from both sides has been a shambles. I suspect remain will win comfortably on the basis the undedecideds will break for the status quo and you'll get a few current leavers bottling it on the day.

I'd fucking love to see an election campaign with the opposing parties painting an optimistic picture of whatever they're promoting. Presumably the focus groups tell the parties that they prefer them to just call the other lot cunts. I'd question whether election campaigns make any difference at all to be honest. Pretty sure Smithson write something backing that up after the general election.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Farage bullshitted, Cameron patronised. Plus ca change. Just let me vote now.

[Lee]

Farage bullshitted, Cameron patronised. Plus ca change. Just let me vote now.

I've paid remarkably little attention to this campaign considering that Europe is the most important electoral issue to me. I feel like an old man moaning about how "they're all full of shit". It has been appalling. I guess some of it is because my mind was already made up but I think this is the worst election campaign of any kind I've ever had the displeasure of witnessing. If I'd paid more attention I'd probably be depressed.

[GS]

It was a poor show full stop. I thought Farage was weak and Cameron has painted himself into a position from which the most positive thing he can say for his stance is "the EU is shit but being outside would be even more shit". The campaign from both sides has been a shambles. I suspect remain will win comfortably on the basis the undedecideds will break for the status quo and you'll get a few current leavers bottling it on the day.

I'd fucking love to see an election campaign with the opposing parties painting an optimistic picture of whatever they're promoting. Presumably the focus groups tell the parties that they prefer the. To just call the other lot cunts. I'd question whether election campaigns make any difference at all to be honest. Pretty sure Smithson write something backing that up after the general election.

I think the last campaign clearly had an impact - the Labour/SNP line certainly will have helped cement the Tory vote in England.

I'm tending towards a view here that there's really nothing more to be done in the campaign beyond hammering the core message home - Remain renaming the EU as 'the single market' and Leave focusing on control and immigration. The arguments are what they are - I doubt sufficient number are going to change their mind in the next few weeks from where they're currently leaning and certainly not as a result of this sort of format.

As I mentioned to Boyd earlier, I'm expecting 54-46 to Remain - Labour are probably in for a right shock in terms of the vote that gets returned for Leave in some of their heartlands in Wales and the north of England. The bigger issue is how the fuck Cameron pulls it back, because he's on the verge of becoming a Ramsey MAcDonald-esque figure to wide swathes of the membership and he's basically written Labour's 2020 election campaign posters for them.

[Lee]

I think the last campaign clearly had an impact - the Labour/SNP line certainly will have helped cement the Tory vote in England.

I'm tending towards a view here that there's really nothing more to be done in the campaign beyond hammering the core message home - Remain renaming the EU as 'the single market' and Leave focusing on control and immigration. The arguments are what they are - I doubt sufficient number are going to change their mind in the next few weeks from where they're currently leaning and certainly not as a result of this sort of format.

As I mentioned to Boyd earlier, I'm expecting 54-46 to Remain - Labour are probably in for a right shock in terms of the vote that gets returned for Leave in some of their heartlands in Wales and the north of England. The bigger issue is how the fuck Cameron pulls it back, because he's on the verge of becoming a Ramsey MAcDonald-esque figure to wide swathes of the membership and he's basically written Labour's 2020 election campaign posters for them.

You may be right about the last campaign but I tend to think that people were turned off by Miliband anyway and would have chosen the Tories regardless. We'll never know because of the polling cock up, unfortunately.

Cameron is done regardless and Corbyn ought to just kill himself.

[GS]

I've paid remarkably little attention to this campaign considering that Europe is the most important electoral issue to me. I feel like an old man moaning about how "they're all full of shit". It has been appalling. I guess some of it is because my mind was already made up but I think this is the worst election campaign of any kind I've ever had the displeasure of witnessing. If I'd paid more attention I'd probably be depressed.

I've taken a real interest because it's the first constitutional referendum I've had a chance to vote in, but the standard from both sides has been absolutely shite. The arguments from Remain that Leave need to set out 'their vision' is just a joke - they're not an alternative government in waiting.

There are clearly valid arguments on both sides, and you have to decide what's more important to you. You consider the people who've sat in David Cameron's chair - Pitt, Gladstone et al - he's disgracing his office by being such a wanker. It's alright for Nigel "not even in parliament" Farage to get on like a tit, but Cameron is the fucking leader of the government and he's prostituting himself to anyone who agrees with him. I'm not sure he's ever got over having to rush to Scotland on the back of an opinion poll showing a 'yes' lead to give a speech where he looked like he might actually burst into tears in front of everyone.

[GS]

You may be right about the last campaign but I tend to think that people were turned off by Miliband anyway and would have chosen the Tories regardless. We'll never know because of the polling cock up, unfortunately.

Cameron is done regardless and Corbyn ought to just kill himself.

It was probably a combination of both - the Tories had a clear lead on the economy and leadership, and hammering those points home whilst invoking the fear of a party not trusted on the economy and with a shit leader being propped up by a party which 'hates England'.

What's your view on Corbyn at this point? I can't remember if you thought he'd be not shit or not.

[Lee]

It was probably a combination of both - the Tories had a clear lead on the economy and leadership, and hammering those points home whilst invoking the fear of a party not trusted on the economy and with a shit leader being propped up by a party which 'hates England'.

What's your view on Corbyn at this point? I can't remember if you thought he'd be not shit or not.

I can't remember what I thought myself to be honest. But obviously he is shit. Type of bloke you'd probably want as your constituency MP as I imagine he'd stand up for you like a bastard, but nobody is going to vote for Labour under him.

The country is basically centrist so most of the time you'll have a PM from the left of the Tory party or the right of Labour. Neither party thrives when they turn to their extremes but unfortunately the "grass roots" of neither of the big two parties seem to understand this. I reckon the Tories will turn to the right after the summer, with Corbyn hanging on until 2020 leading to the worst general election choice in history.

Pragmatic supporters of both parties realise you go for some fucker who you don't like but who will get your party elected and throw you a few bones, like Blair and the minimum wage or Cameron with this referendum.

[Lewis]

Remember when I was the only person who saw the majority coming years in advance? It was so obvious.

[Lee]

I do remember, yes. How are you calling the referendum?

[GS]

I expected Labour/SNP.

You could have got 10/1 on a Tory majority on GE day last year. You should have went big.

[Lewis]

I do remember, yes. How are you calling the referendum?

I think it will be closer than the Scotch one, but still a BOTTLE JOB, and hopefully so close that we at least get some quality backbench seething over it.

[Boydy]

I expected Labour/SNP.

You could have got 10/1 on a Tory majority on GE day last year. You should have went big.

The odds can't have been that much, were they?

[Boydy]

I can't remember what I thought myself to be honest. But obviously he is shit. Type of bloke you'd probably want as your constituency MP as I imagine he'd stand up for you like a bastard, but nobody is going to vote for Labour under him.


Hello.

[GS]

The odds can't have been that much, were they?

I'm sure I read it last week when I was reading some article about the voting odds on the referendum, but I could well have made it up.

EDIT: Seems it's true:


“Punters were piling into a Tory majority at 10/1 on the day, when we thought it had no chance and some political scientists put it at exactly a zero percent possibility,” said Matthew Shaddick, head of political odds at Ladbrokes Plc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/u-k-gamblers-trump-pollsters-in-calling-cameron-s-re-election

[Lee]

Hello.

Didn't realise you liked Tory governments so much.

[Boydy]

Bloody hell.

I suppose it only seems so ridiculous in hindsight.

[phonics]

Guys it doesn't matter. It was the BBCs fault.

740309016534863872

For all that the left is 'soft' you don't half get a load of whiney 'woe is me, life is so unfair' bollocks from the right.

[Jimmy Floyd]

From barely literate UKIP MEPs, maybe.

[GS]

Unless it's Douglas Carswell (or Suzanne Evans if she hasn't been expelled yet), it's not worth listening to anyone in UKIP.

[Lewis]

This 'losing control of the economy' is a new line. Twat.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is like trying to interview one of the Faith Militant.

[Lewis]

Brillo is wasted with his afternoon slots and his Thursday night piss-up. He's brilliant.

[Lewis]

Farage is going to get molested on Friday, but I quite fancy Iain Duncan Smith to TURN UP THE VOLUME and do reasonably well.

[Boydy]

:happycry:

[Disco]

You're more Fang McFreeze than Stone Cold.

[GS]

Osborne did well enough in the first half actually - came across reasonably well, and his ploy of basically saying "of course we're scaremongering, you should be scared" was a much more effective way of dealing with it than pretending otherwise.

The remain side clearly can't deal with the immigration and Turkish issues, and they end up shitting the bed trying to weasel out of admitting the basic facts because they think it's not what people want to hear. They'd be better saying "this is the price we pay to be in the single market, but it's worth it so fuck off" than anything else.

Brillo could crucify Farage on Friday. I suspect IDS will do alright - he handled himself well when he was interviewed on Sunday Politics a month or so ago.

[Luke Emia]

As much as those who didn't register before yesterday are massive retards. With the website being down I suppose there is a reason to extend the registration period. To hear a few Tory leave campaigners complaining about it being done really doesn't sit too well.

Obviously the vast majority of those registering now will be young and based on that will probably vote to remain. Basically telling them to piss of most definitely isn't the answer.

[GS]

I take a view that if you were waiting until half an hour before the deadline having had months, you've probably brought it on yourself.

The last thing we need from here is a very tight win for Remain, because then you'll never hear the end of "the deadline shouldn't have been extended", "you spent £9m of taxpayer money to send out a fucking leaflet" and "the electoral commission sent polling cards to EU nationals".

[Luke Emia]

Oh I do as well. But, if it breaks then I think you need to do something and bleating on and saying they shouldn't be able to vote is definitely not democratic. if it was all old people they would have wanted something doing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Tories won't be extending any deadlines when it happens just before a general election.

As for Brillo vs Farage, all he has to do is goad him for twenty minutes and there's the very real chance of HIV tourism rearing its ugly head again.

[GS]

Harriet Harman is a deeply unimpressive speaker.

I've decided "Chuka, mate" is useless as well. He'll be gutted.

You have to wonder how many of the Labour supporters are actually Labour supporters, rather than just voting for them because it's what they've always done. You expect the Leave vote will do quite well in some of the Labour strongholds - it'll be the young urban types who'll be about 95% for remain.

[Lewis]

This (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36485464) is pretty lol, but then she's basically a communist anyway.

[Spoonsky]

Who are the best politicians left in Great Britain? Consensus here seems to be that the ones in charge (of either side) are mostly shit.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They're all shit, but Jeremy Corbyn is objectively the worst politician to lead any major party or movement in the history of the British Isles.

[Davgooner]

The more this goes on the more it's becoming clear that we really shouldn't have been given a choice on this.

[niko_cee]

That's the spirit.

[Byron]

Who are the best politicians left in Great Britain? Consensus here seems to be that the ones in charge (of either side) are mostly shit.

Dennis Skinner.

That's probably about it. Gove is a bastard, but he's a polite one.

[Lewis]

They're all shit, but Jeremy Corbyn is objectively the worst politician to lead any major party or movement in the history of the British Isles.

I want to disagree with that, but I'm struggling to think of an alternative since you said 'politician'.

[MrUmbongo]

Thought I'd read this thread for a laugh and GS you didn't disappoint. You live by a strange narrative ... or do you now have some empathy for some of the positions you hacked out all those bullet points against?

As an intellectually honest believer in de-centralisation and local democracy I hope you Englanders get your freedom. Anyone on the left voting to remain needs to give their head a wobble. What a soulless debate all in though.

To the admins who refused to approve my Sebo account, I say don't panic, have your safe space, this shall be my first and last post on the new board- you are welcome to your ghost town.

[Pepe]

Wait, Sebo was not allowed? :D

[John]

Thought I'd read this thread for a laugh and GS you didn't disappoint. You live by a strange narrative ... or do you now have some empathy for some of the positions you hacked out all those bullet points against?

As an intellectually honest believer in de-centralisation and local democracy I hope you Englanders get your freedom. Anyone on the left voting to remain needs to give their head a wobble. What a soulless debate all in though.

To the admins who refused to approve my Sebo account, I say don't panic, have your safe space, this shall be my first and last post on the new board- you are welcome to your ghost town.

Nobody 'refused to approve' anything. The account is awaiting email confirmation.

Why did you register a new account on Tuesday if you already had that one, registered eight months ago?

[Disco]

Lol at the use of 'freedom' in there.

[Davgooner]

This is interesting:

http://www.squareonelaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/60065-KH-SQ1-Law-EU-Referendum-800x800px.jpg

[Lee]

It's also shite, apparently. I read somewhere else that the stuff about Canada having to contribute to the budget and accepting free movement is wrong.

[niko_cee]

That Canadian model sounds interesting. I don't imagine the Canadians are much up for that.

Edit. I don't think you need to read something to tell you how ridiculous it sounds.

There should also probably be the OUTcome (missed opportunity there) where a mutually non-destructive trade agreement is quickly ushered through, and maybe one where the whole of Europe falls into a deep recession after Britain is 'made an example of'.

[GS]

This is interesting:

It's also bollocks. The Canadians aren't signing up to free movement - not that CETA is the sort of agreement we could lift and immediately implement between the UK and the EU. It would form a decent framework to build on.

[GS]

Sarah Wollaston was taken apart by Brillo on Daily Politics this afternoon. Jo Coburn saying "if you change your mind again, you can come back on."


Who are the best politicians left in Great Britain? Consensus here seems to be that the ones in charge (of either side) are mostly shit.

Almost everybody is shit. Labour has practically nobody of substance left. The Lib Dems barely exist as a party, and most of the Conservatives are shit too. I quite like Michael Gove.

Objectively, Nicola Sturgeon is very good at what she does although I expect if you lent her ten quid you'd never see it again.

[Boydy]

You probably won't see great politicians (whatever that means) again. We know too much about them now and there are too many opportunities for them to look stupid.

[GS]

Speaking of great politicians, John 'Sir John Major' Major and Lord Blair were in Northern Ireland today trying to unsettle everybody by suggesting that Brexit would destabilise the peace process.

It's probably the only claim I've been quite angry about.