The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[Lewis]

Daniel Hannan is the best Eurosceptic by a mile, but you need a prominent person in these things to stop it looking like a crank show. The Prime Minister vs Nobody MEP means everything defers to him because who even is this bald twat?

[GS]

Indeed, which is why one in two people not having an opinion on Gove means that Boris might be the better choice.

[Toby]

David Cameron says his EU campaign is Project Fact, not Project Fear

:sick:

It seems the in campaign are set to approach things with exactly the same ineptitude the Scottish 'No' campaign did, only with a far less comfortable lead to fritter away. The more this goes on the more I expect Leave to win quite comfortably.

[Lewis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrB2yAPPlQ

Brillo. :cool:

[Yevrah]

We're leaving. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

The way they've approached this really has taken me by surprise. I thought they'd try and kill them softly by 'respecting our differences' and that. As it is they're going for anyone who wants to leave, for any reason, by the throat and calling them vile idiots.

I don't know if it will work. Probably will.

[Lee]

The Tories are so lucky Labour are such a shambles at the minute.

[Yevrah]

Having just watched that video, these fuckers are actually lying, aren't they?

[phonics]

Toby has noted it already but it really is quite funny all the anti-EU posters on here sounding exactly like the Scottish Nationalists they mocked all the way through their independence bid.

[Boydy]

I don't think that's what he was saying.

[Yevrah]

The way they've approached this really has taken me by surprise. I thought they'd try and kill them softly by 'respecting our differences' and that. As it is they're going for anyone who wants to leave, for any reason, by the throat and calling them vile idiots.

I don't know if it will work. Probably will.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I've been on the fence for a long time over the issue an was hoping (I know!) that at least in the run up there'd be some actual fachts banded about. As it is I'm now moving more and more towards 'No' every day and primarily now through sheer belligerence.

Not a way to decide how to cast a vote that could be pretty important, but if the people we elect to inform us about this stuff can't be arsed to do that reasonably, then I'm fucked if I can.

[phonics]

I don't think that's what he was saying.

tfw you word a post badly and then your internet dies.

[Lewis]

Stuart Rose has a good day with the Treasury Select Committee as well. When asked whether the end of free movement would increase wages he said 'If you are short of labour, the price of labour will go up. So yes, but that is not necessarily a good thing'. Regardless of what he means, that will look good on an advert whilst doing the Big Business stitch-up NARRATIVE no harm.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Toby has noted it already but it really is quite funny all the anti-EU posters on here sounding exactly like the Scottish Nationalists they mocked all the way through their independence bid.

It's not the same debate at all. Rule of thumb: Britain is brilliant.

[Toby]

Hancock has even opened his bit there with the 'No Thanks' classic, 'Best of Both Worlds'. http://msnsmileys.net/H/h2g2-Emotions/f-groan.gif

[QE Harold Flair]

Fight the stitch up.

[Toby]

Harold is the Sebo of this thread, too, just to complete the parallels.

[QE Harold Flair]

Toby, you're such a poo bum.

[Henry]

Good point made by some UKIP(?) bint today on the news. Cameron can't be saying one minute that he's prepared to leave unless he gets a better deal, and then that it would be a disaster to leave the next. Doesn't stack up, and this is one thing that increasingly pisses me off about political debate. There's no nuance or moderation. Everything's either painted as shambolic or awesome.

[Lewis]

That should be known as 'Yevrahfication'.

[QE Harold Flair]

The main line that we hear about 'tell us what it would look like if we left' is starting to get on my raving titties, too. Of course we don't know for certain, but it wouldn't look that much different to most people in their lives. It's more a matter of principle.

[Lewis]

Will 'Gimp' Straw got a Brilloing today as well. You would really be better off just avoiding him.

[Lewis]

Oooh, the French have waded in. Dismissing it as 'scaremongering' is shite though. It really needed an Alex Ferguson-style 'Lads, it's France'.

[Lewis]

The trickle of stories on Guido suggest that UKIP (or at least Nigel Farage) is having some sort of MELTDOWN. They're basically throwing everybody affiliated with Vote Leave under the proverbial bus in an attempt to stuff their designation hopes; but in a happy coincidence it also downgrades the main people who wanted rid of Farage after the election.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Farage has had a right shitter. His career is over.

[Yevrah]

I must have missed a meeting on this one. How has he gone from an eccentric/mental but reasonably respected operator to political cancer in a matter of months?

[Boydy]

Not winning a parliamentary seat.

[GS]

I've no idea what UKIP are at with this. Douglas Carswell must wonder why he bothered.

[Yevrah]

Not winning a parliamentary seat.

Yeah, that and the u-turn were pretty pathetic, but is it just that? Really?

[GS]

Not winning a parliamentary seat.

That and his hubris in thinking that he can have any positive impact on the debate. The rise of UKIP probably helped secure the referendum in the first place, now he should quietly fuck off and leave the moderates to convince the winnable undecideds. Farage / UKIP aren't going to convince a single person to leave who hasn't already decided that's going to be their vote. Pure hubris and a desperation to remain relevant, nothing more.

[GS]

Yeah, that and the u-turn were pretty pathetic, but is it just that? Really?

When they were making inroads into the Tory vote, it gave him more exposure and helped to highlight some of the more unpalatable elements of the party. Farage has effectively implemented a 'coup' to solidify his own position, shutting out opposition voices. The Tory majority (including thumping one of the Tory defectors to UKIP) and 'Nigel' himself failing to win a seat confined them to the political backwaters. They may have won 3.9m votes, but their relevancy to the wider political landscape ends with this referendum. They're too busy trying to win internal power struggles.

Plus Farage made some fairly unpleasant arguments during the campaign last year, which have made it easy to paint him as a cunt.

[Yevrah]

Yeah, fair point, the AIDS tourism stuff was absolute suicide.

[GS]

Yeah, fair point, the AIDS tourism stuff was absolute suicide.

Apparently the Kippers' strategists spent most of the day before the debate considering whether or not to use the line. They decided to go with it in the end to fire up the base, but in so doing managed to alienate everyone else who thought "well, I'm not a complete cunt".

[Yevrah]

Probably as ill judged a final decision as the policy obelisk, that.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's shown himself up as an egotistical cunt. If he had resigned as promised after the election he could have been fondly remembered as an upstart eccentric of a time, like a knock-off Jimmy Goldsmith, but instead he resigned and then unresigned days later, before reshaping the party to exclude anyone of worth, because his ego just couldn't take the hit.

[QE Harold Flair]

I see tth group-think is in full session again.

[Byron]

Wake up sheeple!

[QE Harold Flair]

I was almost a lone voice on immigration, proven correct. I was almost a lone voice on Muslim criminals, proven correct. You'll find the truth more useful than a worldview.

Women who wrote on this for Slate and The Independent also seem to have misinterpreted things. Or might it be that there is a perfectly legitimate, opposite view of this which isn't necessarily mired in some kind of pathological misogyny? Can't be!

[Lewis]

Wake up sheeple!

If you knew how to think for yourself you would soon learn that Nigel Farage is always right.

[QE Harold Flair]

Very often, yes. Just like the excellent Douglas Murray, who is being right, right here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUgFV7w-tcA

[Lewis]

This migrant summit has interesting implications. The Turkish plan is to take the migrants in return for money, actual Syrians currently sitting in Turkey (one-for-one), and their application to join the European Union being rushed through. In the meantime, they want visa liberalisation for all Turks to begin in...

*drum roll*

June.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If that looks like gaining traction, it's run for the hills time.

[Lewis]

The concept is breathtakingly simple: any migrant arriving on a Greek island would be returned to Turkey. The temporary initiative is intended to be a short circuit for irregular migration. It goes for every one of the 2,000 migrants arriving per day, be they Syrians or economic migrants from north Africa or Asia, according to a draft of the terms.

The political price is the EU abandoning constraints that have framed its relations with Turkey for almost a decade. Strict criteria for granting European visa privileges for Turkish citizens would be all but dropped so the privilege would be available in June; a decade-long Cypriot bar on some of Ankara’s membership chapters lifted; and an extra €3bn potentially made available in 2018.

Even a watered-down version of that will be lol.

[Spoonsky]

Speaking of Turkey: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/08/opinion/democracys-disintegration-in-turkey.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0

The Middle East has cancer.

[GS]

Turkey being allowed into the EU is the time to run very, very fast in the opposite direction.

[Pepe]

Been reading about that 'deal' today. Seriously lol stuff.

[Lewis]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdD0qSQUEAETElo.jpg

Cleggers reckoned it never happened, but fuck him.

[phonics]

Someone should probably have informed her that (and/or the person revealing it) that's illegal but whatevs.

[GS]

Ed Balls' wife was interviewed by LBC earlier and was pressed about whether she'd taken in the Syrian refugee she'd said she put up last year. The transcript is a right laugh.

[GS]

Someone should probably have informed her that (and/or the person revealing it) that's illegal but whatevs.

You what mate?

[Lewis]

You what mate?

She can hardly break her own laws in the country she owns. :cab:

[Lee]

It can't be that long before the old bag dies now, surely? She doesn't even get ill. Probably a robot. I'll probably fucking die before she does. Charles must be getting pissed off now. At least I'm only missing out on a couple of bank holidays. That poor bastard will probably be diagnosed with terminal cancer, dying slowly in the knowledge that his whole life has been a waste of time.

I was reading the other day about what will happen when she dies, in terms of protocols, mourning, all that. Obviously I don't care for the fuckers but it's going to be fascinating when it happens. I wonder if it will be more mental than when that daft slag got killed in the car crash. Less immediate shock factor given she's old, but most people have known nothing else.

[GS]

God Save The Queen.

[Lewis]

Alright, pleb.

[phonics]

Illegal is probably a poor choice of words but is it 'allowable' for the Queen/whoever leaked it to take a public position that is outside that of the sitting Government?

edit: She's allowed to say, "Tony, that's a shit idea." not "Hey everybody, Tony's got a shit idea." no?

[GS]

The Queen can express her opinions during private meetings with her ministers, but it's generally accepted that such conversations are never revealed publicly. Largely because they would threaten the monarch's position as a politically neutral head of state.

The Palace clearly haven't leaked it - they'd be far more subtle if they wanted the Queen to intervene in such a 'constitutional' question. This has most likely come from one of the Brexiters who was in attendance at the meeting, so it'll be a political (or civil service) source and not one originally on the monarch's side.

And as a consequence, the responsibility lies with the individuals who leaked it, not the Queen.

[Boydy]

707886219674427392

[GS]

Boris bollocking American hypocrisy in his Telegraph column tomorrow.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12192893/Americans-would-never-accept-EU-restrictions-so-why-should-we.html

[Pepe]

The American Dream. :harold:

[Yevrah]

Goebbels would be proud of some of the shit the remain campaign are coming out with.

[GS]

They are. Not that the Leave camp aren't presenting occasional glimpses of a land of milk and honey, mind.

[Lewis]

Goebbels would be proud of some of the shit the remain campaign are coming out with.

Speaking of which... (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/12/alastair-campbell-brexit-referendum-media-bias)

[Yevrah]

Speaking of which... (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/12/alastair-campbell-brexit-referendum-media-bias)

What a bitter, bitter man he is.

[Toby]

Namedropping Pravda is yet another check on the referendum bingo grid set by the Scottish one. We'll have an "eat your cereal" moment yet.

[John]

Has anyone compared the situation to Apartheid yet? That should be the centre square.

[phonics]

I was working today and some old man rocked up to check-in with a 'Vote Leave' badge on. He asked why he couldn't go in the short queue instead of the massive one and had to tell him that was for flights to Schengen countries. He was not pleased.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lynton Crosby thinks LEAVE will win. Stand down, vanguard au chocolat, it's all over.

[Lewis]

This migrant deal with the Ottomans has a lot of 'Well what about...' to it, but the main thing is that they will only send back rejected asylum seekers who arrive after 20 March. Enjoy the weekend, Greece.

[Byron]

Fucking hell :D

[Lewis]

712775960089796608

lol

[GS]

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 49% (-5)
Leave: 41% (+5)
(via Ipsos Mori, phone / 19 - 22 Mar)

Ten point swing (presumably mostly) before Brussels.

[Spikey M]

I'd probably vote to stay purely because all the arguments tend to revolve around immigration and I don't give much of a fuck about it. Were I a professional 'no spray, no lay' bloke at my local nightclub then I might feel threatened by it, but as things stand. Meh.

Show me the economics argument. If it's short then I might care enough to read it.

[Lewis]

Typical Idiotmouse.

[Lee]

Last time I saw him he was posting on a weather forum I looked on, shitting myself at the prospect of flying to Norway in a bit of wind. Decided not to say hello.

[Spikey M]

Fucking rude (I saw you on my profile views :ae:)

[Disco]

Spikey in a nightclub, I'm not convinced, I think I'd need to see pictorial evidence of such a thing.

[GS]

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 3h3 hours ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (-3)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via BMG online / 24 - 29 Mar)

This one is online, but it seems to fit the trend of a recent swing towards Leave. I've read some articles recently which suggested that most referenda see a swing towards the 'status quo' in the final run-in, but a major recent exception was the Scots' independence campaign.

[Lewis]

Those status quo arguments tend to rely on old people coming out and ruining it for everybody don't they? Because the biddies all want to leave...

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lynton, the Earl Crosby thinks Leave will win, and that's good enough for me.

[GS]

Those status quo arguments tend to rely on old people coming out and ruining it for everybody don't they? Because the biddies all want to leave...

That and people choosing the safe option. I do wonder how much impact turnout might have on the day. As you say, the older demographics incline towards leave and you can usually rely on them turning up.

[Lewis]

The seethe will be unprecedented if pensioners and tabloid-readers win the day.

[GS]

It would be incredible. Not that it'll happen, but PM Gove leading the negotiations whilst Labour literally cease to exist as a functioning party. Tremendous.

[Lewis]

We got our SCAREMONGERING government leaflet today. It's a belting leaflet really. Very plush and well-designed, and written in such a way that you can see why people are moaning about it.


The UK is not part of the European border-free zone. We control our own borders.

Hmm. Twitter seems to be having fun with the idea of posting them back to either Number 10 or Conservative Party central office (off-shore right?). Is that because they have to pick the postage up if you don't put a stamp on it? I'll do that if so. Otherwise I'll keep it somewhere with my old newspapers and Diamond Jubilee flag.

[John Arne]

Surely 'Brexit' should be 'Ukexit'?

[GS]

The government sending this leaflet out is proper lol.

On a similar note, Dan Hannan is good value at the minute. He put this together. I'd pull the quotes out, but fuck it it's not that long:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTv7UoK8oJY

[Byron]

Got my leaflet through today.

Now, where do I send it back to?

[GS]

I haven't got mine yet. How much of a whitewash is it?

[Yevrah]

Got mine yesterday, Lewis has posted the zinger line from it.

It's put together well enough that I should imagine it'll seal the deal.

[Byron]

I haven't got mine yet. How much of a whitewash is it?

I think the best summary of it is Safety and Security over and over with no citations for their facts.

[GS]

It all feels like a bit of a stitch-up, irrespective of your views either way. The Tory right might never recover from the seethe if it ends up 52/48, or something equally tight.

[Lewis]

The UK has secured a special status in a reformed EU:


we will not join the euro
we will keep our own border controls
the UK will not be part of further European political integration
there will be tough new restrictions on access to our welfare system for new EU migrants
we have a commitment to reduce EU red tape


The Government believes the UK should remain in the EU.

That is the bulk of the very first page. It's more 'Really mate?' than outright lies.

[Lee]

Got mine yesterday, Lewis has posted the zinger line from it.

It's put together well enough that I should imagine it'll seal the deal.

As if anybody is going to read it.

[GS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZsH93tiAIs

Very good.

[Magic]

Bernie. :cool:

[GS]

On a similar note, I did like this from Paddy "Paddy Ashdown" Ashdown earlier:

Paddy Ashdown ‏@paddyashdown 13h13 hours ago
At last the facts. Gove: Brexit means opening the door to cheap food world-wide. Goodbye UK Agriculture. Been nice knowing you. Steel next?

I assumed everyone got over this after we binned the corn laws off.

[Lewis]

Intellectual titan and assured media hand Angela Eagle (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/19/michael-gove-eu-angela-eagle-utopian-rubbish) had her(?) say on Michael Gove earlier, and somehow came out with this: 'There are no countries that trade with the European Union that don’t have to accept free movement... I actually think our capacity to negotiate trade deals is increased and amplified by being in the EU'.

That sort of thing reassures you on the whole misleading people thing, because you could surely only frame it like that if you actually didn't understand it.

[GS]

Aye, it's fucking terrifying.

I quite enjoyed Gove comparing the institution to the Austro-Hungarian Empire earlier. It felt rather apt.

[Magic]

He's a horrible little cunt.

[Lewis]

Vote Leave is out in Hedon. I got a badge off them, and they seem to think that there is a polling conspiracy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Part of me thinks that it will be a lot closer than the polling suggests, for the same reason 2010 and 2015 went to shit for the respective cous cous collectives - young people don't vote.

[Kikó]

We eat Quinoa.

[Lewis]

Part of me thinks that it will be a lot closer than the polling suggests, for the same reason 2010 and 2015 went to shit for the respective cous cous collectives - young people don't vote.

'Well how come every thousand people we speak to, only a few of them want to stay in?'
'Because the only people who stop and talk to you wa...'
'See, you say that, but something has to be going on.'

[phonics]

I've probably mentioned it upthread, but when I had to tell some guy wearing a massive 'vote leave' badge that he couldn't join the small queue because that was for Schengen nations he was so seething that he either changed to 'in' or he's currently co-ordinating a followup attack on Brussels.

[Lewis]

Oh yeah, and they both said that they're moving to Bulgaria if we vote to stay in. Lads...

[GS]

Part of me thinks that it will be a lot closer than the polling suggests, for the same reason 2010 and 2015 went to shit for the respective cous cous collectives - young people don't vote.

This is true. Also, leave voters (across all age bands) are about 10% more likely to "definitely" vote as well. It's hard to know where it'll land given the state of the polling, which seems to change day to day.

[Lee]

The difference between the phone polls and online polls is massive. The former have Remain pissing it whilst the latter have it tight but with Leave having the better of it. I tend towards thinking the phone polls are better but that's probably just confirmation bias. It leaves us all none the wiser as to what's actually happening which I guess will make it more exciting as the election approaches.

[Boydy]

Good article here:

Why our landed gentry are so desperate to stay in the EU

http://gu.com/p/4tgmp?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[phonics]

Really? Farming subsidies are the new evil? Okay then.

If you're making an argument against farming subsidies you may as well wind Government in as it can literally not do anything without screwing someone.

[Lewis]

They've been distorting the market and causing misery forever. When Haiti was flooded with cheap, heavily-subsidised American rice everything fell to bits. They called it the 'Plan of Death'.

[Boydy]

Yeah, they're not a new evil. The CAP is terrible for developing nations.

[phonics]

Yeah, they're not a new evil. The CAP is terrible for developing nations.

I really couldn't care less about the developing world at this point. China has already bought off any countries with any future anyway.

In other news, people getting annoyed at ol Barack is funny.


It is frankly wanton double standards because he is asking the British people to do something he wouldn’t dream of asking Americans. He wouldn’t dream of opening the US border to free movement from Mexico, he wouldn’t dream of allowing the American constitution to be trumped by a Latin American court with judges appointed by Venezuela, or Cuban judges.

They do realise that the US is a collection of states, joining together for better economic prosperity with a court system where the fed can over-rule unconstitutional State laws, right? It's kind of in the name.

[Magic]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36112694

He suggests Mr Obama may have an "ancestral dislike of the British Empire" because of his own heritage.

:D

[Lewis]

Barack Hussein Obama sez that we would be at the 'back of the queue' for a free trade agreement. That Special Relationship.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgplWbXWkAA_aCQ.jpg

True.

[GS]

I really couldn't care less about the developing world at this point. China has already bought off any countries with any future anyway.

In other news, people getting annoyed at ol Barack is funny.

They do realise that the US is a collection of states, joining together for better economic prosperity with a court system where the fed can over-rule unconstitutional State laws, right? It's kind of in the name.

The United States would not cede sovereignty to an institution like the EU in the manner that we have. It won't even sign up to the ICC.

You can decide for yourself whether you think the cession of sovereignty we make is worth it, but it is blatantly hypocritical for the Americans to wade in. I also find it very difficult to believe that the fifth biggest economy in the world would become some sort of pariah state, irrespective of what happens.

[John Arne]

Why would they sign up? They don't even play Cricket in the US.

[Lee]

The United States would not cede sovereignty to an institution like the EU in the manner that we have. It won't even sign up to the ICC.

You can decide for yourself whether you think the cession of sovereignty we make is worth it, but it is blatantly hypocritical for the Americans to wade in. I also find it very difficult to believe that the fifth biggest economy in the world would become some sort of pariah state, irrespective of what happens.

Whilst it would be daft to make comparisons to the current EU and the US, Johnson specifically says that the US would never consider any arrangement similar to the federal superstate the EU wishes to become. The US is the fucking federal superstate the EU wishes to become. Minus the obesity and gun nuttery, one would presume. It's all bollocks from both sides and none of it will do anything but get people whose minds are already made up nodding away in agreement.

Anyway, Johnson has made a right tit of himself since declaring for Leave. Not that it will matter particularly, since his only aim in all this is to win enough love with the Tory membership to guarantee a place on the ballot for the coming leadership contest. If Remain win, as looks very likely at the minute, he just has to wait a bit longer. Twat he might be, but stupid politician he most certainly isn't.

Leave look desperately poorly organised to me. They don't have the names and they aren't making an argument other than "DON'T LISTEN TO PROJECT FEAR!!". Which isn't really an argument. You can argue equally that Remain aren't making strong arguments but they don't need to; they aren't asking anybody to change anything. As almost always with referenda, the status quo mongers will have it.

[Lewis]

The United States is a union of states bound by a common culture and history. So is Germany (so is England). Comparing it to the European Union is stupid, because we have less in common with every mainland European nation than we do with the United States (or Australia, or wherever else has our legal system).

Leave have done about as well as they could have done. They can only bang on about money, sovereignty (admittedly a trivial concern that one), and roll their eyes at every bastard with a vested interest predicting the end of the world.

[Lee]

The United States is a union of states bound by a common culture and history. So is Germany (so is England). Comparing it to the European Union is stupid, because we have less in common with every mainland European nation than we do with the United States (or Australia, or wherever else has our legal system).

Leave have done about as well as they could have done. They can only bang on about money, sovereignty (admittedly a trivial concern that one), and roll their eyes at every bastard with a vested interest predicting the end of the world.

That isn't really the argument Johnson makes though. Unless he elaborates elsewhere. I haven't looked.

Surely Leave could offer a positive vision of Britain outside of the EU? It's hardly an intellectually bankrupt stance to take.

[Lewis]

They have been doing. They've just made the mistake of not having Daniel Hannan doing every single media engagement, so you just end up with a succession of people and Boris Johnson (who is awful) doing the rounds, and what match are they for the government and the Book of Exodus? It made sense early on when they had to emphasis the cross-party aspect to win designation and not let Nigel Farage fuck everything up, but now they need to throw everything behind their best man. Plus, without wanting to sound like THE MEDIA IS BIASED, the fact is that all of this shit plays out on Twitter and Andrew Marr, so inevitably the doom warnings capture all the headlines, and then you just get Johnson blithering in response.

[GS]

Whilst it would be daft to make comparisons to the current EU and the US, Johnson specifically says that the US would never consider any arrangement similar to the federal superstate the EU wishes to become. The US is the fucking federal superstate the EU wishes to become. Minus the obesity and gun nuttery, one would presume. It's all bollocks from both sides and none of it will do anything but get people whose minds are already made up nodding away in agreement.

Anyway, Johnson has made a right tit of himself since declaring for Leave. Not that it will matter particularly, since his only aim in all this is to win enough love with the Tory membership to guarantee a place on the ballot for the coming leadership contest. If Remain win, as looks very likely at the minute, he just has to wait a bit longer. Twat he might be, but stupid politician he most certainly isn't.

Leave look desperately poorly organised to me. They don't have the names and they aren't making an argument other than "DON'T LISTEN TO PROJECT FEAR!!". Which isn't really an argument. You can argue equally that Remain aren't making strong arguments but they don't need to; they aren't asking anybody to change anything. As almost always with referenda, the status quo mongers will have it.

The US is a 'superstate' which has grown organically since 1776, and the defeat of the Confederacy finished the idea that states had the right to secede. It's not a modern day attempt to shove 28 countries together. Similarly, the established position since the Civil War has been that federal government exercises control over defence, foreign policy and other 'reserved' areas of legislation, whilst the judicial branch at federal level is the final arbiter of decisions.

A more apt comparison would be to suggest that the Americans should join a political, fiscal and economic union with Canada, Mexico and various central American and Caribbean states. They'd tell you to fuck right off. As they should.


That isn't really the argument Johnson makes though. Unless he elaborates elsewhere. I haven't looked.

Surely Leave could offer a positive vision of Britain outside of the EU? It's hardly an intellectually bankrupt stance to take.

They have in the past i.e. making clear we can negotiate our own trade deals, that we're not bound by shit EU laws, that we can 'take back control' and 'control our own borders'. These are all positive messages, but it's being drowned out by shite on both sides. Remain are far more prone to engaging in negative arguments, largely centred around the 'leap into the unknown'.

[GS]

They have been doing. They've just made the mistake of not having Daniel Hannan doing every single media engagement, so you just end up with a succession of people and Boris Johnson (who is awful) doing the rounds, and what match are they for the government and the Book of Exodus? It made sense early on when they had to emphasis the cross-party aspect to win designation and not let Nigel Farage fuck everything up, but now they need to throw everything behind their best man. Plus, without wanting to sound like THE MEDIA IS BIASED, the fact is that all of this shit plays out on Twitter and Andrew Marr, so inevitably the doom warnings capture all the headlines, and then you just get Johnson blithering in response.

Agree on Hannan. He's the best man for the job. Gove is good too, but Boris is properly struggling.

[Magic]

That's not an apt comparison GS.

[GS]

Why's that? You're shoving together several countries in the same geographical location absent comparable culture or common language and with vastly different standards of living across the trading bloc. You would then be asking the Americans to let, say, the Dominican Republic exercise a veto over some of your plans, as the Romanians are threatening to do on some EU trade deals at present.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Boris is struggling because he doesn't believe in it, he's just there for the political points. The idiot.

[Magic]

Why's that? You're shoving together several countries in the same geographical location absent comparable culture or common language and with vastly different standards of living across the trading bloc. You would then be asking the Americans to let, say, the Dominican Republic exercise a veto over some of your plans, as the Romanians are threatening to do on some EU trade deals at present.

Sorry mate that sounds more like Yugoslavia than the EU.

[GS]

One of the reasons why World War I kicked off was because Serbia harboured ambitions for a pan-Slavic state, which the Austro-Hungarians wanted to slap down as they were too busy subjugating the Bosnians. Ambitions for a pan-Slavic state existed long before any prospect of a creeping European superstate came into the continental conscience.

As it stands, there are 28 member states in the European Union stretching from the Atlantic to the Black Sea, and from the Arctic to the Mediterranean. There are 24 official languages, and deep divisions in cultural and historical contexts. The standard of living differs greatly across the bloc since the accession of countries behind the Iron Curtain, including the Baltic states.

The comparison of bringing together America, Canada, Mexico and various other shit countries in the region is, therefore, apt when discussing whether the Americans would ever accept a similar arrangement - which they patently would want nothing whatsoever to do with.

[Magic]

Because of the collapse of the Ottoman empire and Turk persecution. Europe is intensely complex with empires all over the place, and deep rooted history. America is nothing like Europe and thus comparing it in any context is not valid.

[Magic]

I've noticed GS how you seem to massively simplify things to suit your opinion. You're obviously a clever chap but this whole 'I'm right because' thing is annoying.

[GS]

The eastern question had long occupied the western European states, but it's irrelevant to considering whether the Americans would be prepared to cede sovereignty or to allow other countries to exercise a veto on their trade agreements.

[GS]

I've noticed GS how you seem to massively simplify things to suit your opinion. You're obviously a clever chap but this whole 'I'm right because' thing is annoying.

I could write something that's ten times the length, but you wouldn't read it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Nicholas Soames (who has an amazing twitter) has tweeted that Boris is among other things an 'ocean going clot'. So good.

[Lee]

I like Soames. He's obviously a bit of a twat but he revels in it. Proper way with words.

Aren't he and Boris great mates? Probably tells him what insults he'll chuck at him this week down the members' club.

[Lewis]

I was only reading about this earlier, but, having seen it on the news, it (and David Cameron) is nothing short of a national embarrassment. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and he's just standing there humiliating himself to win a pissing referendum. I hope the bitters force him out over the summer.

[Lewis]

http://i66.tinypic.com/2chs3o5.png

'In his own meeting with President Obama, Jeremy Corbyn (pictured) speaks for England.'

[Spoonsky]

Boris Johnson reminds me of Yeltsin. Is this accurate Lewis?

[Magic]

I could write something that's ten times the length, but you wouldn't read it.

Perhaps, but it would be just as vacuous as your sweeping statements.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't really think it makes much difference to anyone in this country what Barack Hussein Obama says, but given the amount of sanctimonious bollocks occurring from leftists on Twitter yesterday, this is indescribably lol:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cgtg7hGWsAAmjbH.jpg

[ItalAussie]

Dull poll. If he'd said the opposite thing, the numbers would be flipped around.

Given the way the exiters have hung their hats on ties between the "five eyes" countries, it makes sense for the most powerful one of those countries to say their bit, rather than just being used as the object of an argument telling them exactly how they're going to react. I find myself getting a little irked when Australia's delight with such an arrangement is just assumed.

He's not lying, either. As far as I can tell, the most important points he made were the impact of the collective power of the EU nations operating on concert on important international affairs (Iran, climate change, etc.), and noting that the UK acting alone will have less influence in these discussions (which is true). You may think that's a reasonable price to pay, but it's still an important point which hasn't been talked much. The debate has had a very insular focus so far.

[ItalAussie]

Also, it's hardly hypocritical of America to advocate international groups with actual regulatory power. NAFTA has been in place for a while now, and nobody is pushing TTIP harder than the US. These aren't exactly the same as the EU, obviously, but they do preserve many of the elements that people complain about the EU having, like regulatory oversight and the ability to put down restrictions on the exercise of unrestrained sovereignty.

The US is far too big to belong to an EU-type arrangement, but that doesn't mean that they don't accept controls on their economic sovereignty from international bodies.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Dull poll. If he'd said the opposite thing, the numbers would be flipped around.

Given the way the exiters have hung their hats on ties between the "five eyes" countries, it makes sense for the most powerful one of those countries to say their bit, rather than just being used as the object of an argument telling them exactly how they're going to react. I find myself getting a little irked when Australia's delight with such an arrangement is just assumed.

He's not lying, either. As far as I can tell, the most important points he made were the impact of the collective power of the EU nations operating on concert on important international affairs (Iran, climate change, etc.), and noting that the UK acting alone will have less influence in these discussions (which is true). You may think that's a reasonable price to pay, but it's still an important point which hasn't been talked much. The debate has had a very insular focus so far.

Probably because voters don't give a flying fuck about international affairs until it starts affecting them (eg. British soldiers dying for little tangible gain in Iraq). I mean, if you stopped 100 people in a market town high street and asked them about Iran and climate change, I reckon you'd get 2 who gave a single solitary fuck.

I was more lolling at the Twitter circle jerk being as out of touch with the populace as ever.

I also think it will make almost no difference whether or not we leave the EU at this referendum. In a few years, when they start integrating the Euro and political institutions (as they have to do for it to work), we'll not be getting involved in that anyway, so it's a pointless referendum really.

[GS]

Perhaps, but it would be just as vacuous as your sweeping statements.

And which sweeping statements are these specifically?

[GS]

Dull poll. If he'd said the opposite thing, the numbers would be flipped around.

Given the way the exiters have hung their hats on ties between the "five eyes" countries, it makes sense for the most powerful one of those countries to say their bit, rather than just being used as the object of an argument telling them exactly how they're going to react. I find myself getting a little irked when Australia's delight with such an arrangement is just assumed.

He's not lying, either. As far as I can tell, the most important points he made were the impact of the collective power of the EU nations operating on concert on important international affairs (Iran, climate change, etc.), and noting that the UK acting alone will have less influence in these discussions (which is true). You may think that's a reasonable price to pay, but it's still an important point which hasn't been talked much. The debate has had a very insular focus so far.

I don't think anyone is assuming that Australia would be 'delighted'; however, the argument should be focused around what the UK economy could expect to do outside the EU. The UK is the fifth biggest economy in the world - some of the suggestions that we would be treated as some sort of rogue state outside normal trading parameters are just stupid. The problem with EU trade deals, of course, is that they take fucking forever and any of the 28 countries can exercise an effective veto over it. As I mentioned above, Romania and Bulgaria are threatening to veto trade deals over certain visa restrictions remaining in place.

So whilst I don't think Australia, or indeed any other country, would be 'delighted' at the UK, outside the EU, negotiating its own trade agreements, I reject as highly improbable the idea that we'll just be left to it because we had the audacity to leave. Obama talked about the UK being at the back of the queue for a trade agreement with the US - we don't have one at the minute.

[Lewis]

The United States and Australia negotiated a free trade agreement in ten months. Maybe it would have been done and dusted in a week as part of a Federal Asia, but that is still pretty decent to say we currently have no agreements with them (which seems to be overlooked).

[Lewis]

Boris Johnson reminds me of Yeltsin. Is this accurate Lewis?

Not really. Yeltsin wasn't as much of an egotist.

[GS]

Get this man front and centre, for fuck sake: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2800998/daniel-hannan-no-mr-eurocrat-place-britain-irrelevant-inside-eu.html#ixzz46jahUhfh

[Boydy]

This is quite good (on the pro-EU side): http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/25/ttip-vote-brexit-barack-obama-leave-eu-trade-deal

Might convince me to vote remain, actually, as TTIP was one of the main reasons I was leaning towards leave.

[Lewis]

We should have thrown the Cold War and avoided deregulation completely.

[Boydy]

Now you're talking. :drool:

Seriously though, you can't have fucking corporations suing governments for enacting laws that might harm their profits.

[Lewis]

No, because national sovereignty and democratic accountability are important. So, think about it...

[GS]

Cameron has suggested that leaving the EU could "lead to war".

There are perfectly legitimate and sane arguments on both sides, but he's properly shitting the bed here.

[Lewis]

I can't remember who said it the other day (possibly Iain Martin), but apparently the Jocks just started ignoring the SCAREMONGERING after a while, and all that ever got as far as claiming was that some banks might move to London. Fucking war and genocide. What a bunch of twats.

[Magic]

Campaigns of FEAR don't work, but neither do campaigns of hate (immigration etc). The indyref was a (skewed and full of shit) campaign of HOPE and nearly every second person bought it.

[GS]

Quite. Look at this wanker - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36241798.

Not a few months ago they were suggesting they might recommend leaving (lol) over some trivial change to benefits.

Maybe most people aren't that engaged in it to care, but it really is taking people for absolute mugs.

[GS]

Campaigns of FEAR don't work, but neither do campaigns of hate (immigration etc). The indyref was a (skewed and full of shit) campaign of HOPE and nearly every second person bought it.

FEAR does tend to work when it's reasonable and immediately impacts you e.g. which currency are you going to use. This is just bollocks.

[Lewis]

Yeah. If this intervention doesn't have the desired effect (presumably measured by poll movements), where do you go from there?

[GS]

It's hard to know - you can't get more apocalyptic than World War fucking Three.

Osborne is burning his chances of winning the leadership to the ground, at least. Maybe that's worth having to smash the Germans for a third time, I don't know.

[Lee]

Osborne's chances of winning the leadership were gone a long time ago. After the referendum it will all be about stopping the twats taking over after Cameron. It won't work though. Long-serving governments start to go a bit mental after the second term. They'll win a third term on the basis that Corbyn is a div, before collapsing into opposition five years later.

[GS]

I'd quite like Gove as the next leader.

This is quite good, by the way:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0pwXLtvt2w

[Lee]

Gove would be an awful choice if the Tories want to carry on winning elections. He's the current favourite as well. :drool:

[GS]

They'll win 2020 anyway. Fuck the teaching unions. Everybody SEETHES at change, you just get on with it. I reckon people would like him after they knew more about him other than he pissed off the teaching unions.

[Lee]

They'll win in 2020 because Labour are a shambles. But Gove as PM in a third term is a one way ticket to opposition. He'd probably only be PM in a minority government anyway.

[Lewis]

If we leave, and if (when) Dave 'n' Gideon get bummed out, it will be Theresa May, who has hedged her bets by been deliberately quiet during the referendum, with Michael Gove as Chancellor.

[Boydy]

Campaigns of FEAR don't work, but neither do campaigns of hate (immigration etc). The indyref was a (skewed and full of shit) campaign of HOPE and nearly every second person bought it.

Campaigns of fear such as Scotland staying in the UK, which won, don't work and campaigns of hope such as Scotland going independent, which lost, do work? Eh?

[Lewis]

HOPE: No more destructive arguments, shite family meals, and crippling housing payments
FEAR: Patchy access to his daughter, paying his ex-wife not to work (whilst being stuck with the divorce costs), wife-beating rumours resurface

[Boydy]

:lol:

[Magic]

Campaigns of fear such as Scotland staying in the UK, which won, don't work and campaigns of hope such as Scotland going independent, which lost, do work? Eh?

Look how close it was from being a no chance thing when the campaigns stated.

[Davgooner]

Someone's stuck a 'Vote Leave' sign up in a field so it's viewable when going across ther M6 J1 roundabout. Dirty, dirty bastards.

[Lewis]

The speech (introduced by David Miliband as well) was even worse than expected. As per usual, the Blessed Margaret had it right when she said 'In my lifetime all our problems have come from mainland Europe and all the solutions have come from the English-speaking nations across the world'.

[Henry]

Some lies in the Daily Mirror I see, misquoting Cameron as warning about World War III.

[Lewis]

The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe. Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption... Britain has a fundamental national interest in maintaining common purpose in Europe to avoid future conflict between European countries. And that requires British leadership, and for Britain to remain a member.

He sort of was. Boris Johnson rightly pointed out in his speech how the European Union contributed to Ukraine going up, so the idiots have shifted their focus from the lol doom speech to calling him a 'Putin apologist'. Nice one.

[leedsrevolution]

If we were to leave the EU would workers loose any rights? For example is there a set holiday allowance we have to get in the country or minimum wage?

[John Arne]

*lose.

[Kikó]

You'd loose your ability to spell the word lose.

[leedsrevolution]

Great answers. Keep em coming.

[Yevrah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36243296

For fuck's sake...

EDIT: I see it's been covered, but for fuck's sake.

[GS]

If we were to leave the EU would workers loose any rights? For example is there a set holiday allowance we have to get in the country or minimum wage?

I doubt there would be any change. The national living wage has already been legislated (and will continue to increase) irrespective of whether we're in or out of the EU, whilst the concept of paid holiday has been around since the 1930s.

[GS]

Some lies in the Daily Mirror I see, misquoting Cameron as warning about World War III.

Well, he did. He didn't use the specific term "World War III', but he implied heavily that continental stability would be undermined, perhaps fatally, and the consequence would be another major European war.

NATO was, and remains, the backbone of European security.

[Henry]

The Mirrors headline is "Brexit could trigger WWIII, warns David Cameron".

That's clearly a dishonest representation, whatever you think of what he did say.

And I'm hardly one to go around defending him, as you'll have noticed.

[GS]

I don't really think it's a huge leap from what he said to that headline, although it is the Daily Mirror.

Not to the extent you're suggesting, certainly.

[leedsrevolution]

The Mirrors headline is "Brexit could trigger WWIII, warns David Cameron".

That's clearly a dishonest representation, whatever you think of what he did say.

And I'm hardly one to go around defending him, as you'll have noticed.

I never quite know how much stupid companies like the daily mail impact things. Don't get me wrong, I quite like looking at all the side boob on the daily mail site but I don't take anything other than that from it.

[Kikó]

If Cameron thought a referendum was so catastrophic that we'd end up at war, why did he even chance a vote?

Surely he's not being disingenuous.

[GS]

If Cameron thought a referendum was so catastrophic that we'd end up at war, why did he even chance a vote?

Surely he's not being disingenuous.

You'd hope someone proposed this perfectly sensible question before he turned up to give that fucking speech this morning.

[Lewis]

David Cameron and Nigel Farage are going to take audience questions on ITV next month, so Vote Leave have (not unfairly, if a bit dramatically) shit the bed and accused them all of setting it up so Dave can avoid getting his head bummed in by Michael Gove or somebody else he won't be able to just lol at. Farage really ought to have realised that as well, the egomaniac.

[GS]

It's an unfortunate choice, as Farage is shit. Gove or Hannan would wipe the floor with him.

I've just had a look, and it seems they're going to sue on the grounds that Farage isn't the 'official' choice of the Leave campaign. Which isn't unfair, really.

[Boydy]

Remember when everyone thought Farage was great?

Lol.

[GS]

He was very good for a while.

His problem is that his ego has got the better of him, and he's also on record with some statements / positions that Joe Public find difficult to accept e.g. HIV tourism. It'd be fine if he accepted that he'd done his part i.e. by making UKIP sufficiently SCARY that Cameron called the referendum in the first place, but he seems to think he can still contribute instead of driving potential swing voters away.

He needs to let someone who Cameron can't demolish with easy shots take over. You do wonder how ITV managed to land on Farage as the best bet for this. It's almost like it's A FIX.

[Boydy]

Maybe they thought Farage would make for the best TV?

[Boydy]

I'm surprised you're so keen on out since it seems to go against all your safety first accountant's instincts.

[Lewis]

He is good at what he does, but anyone likely to be swayed by him in a televised debate is probably already voting to leave, where as there is unlimited scope for him to alienate a load of possible supporters once Dave answers a question about trade agreements with 'ask your mate Donald Trump lololol' and sets him off. Boris Johnson should be kept away from it for similar reasons.

[GS]

I'm surprised you're so keen on out since it seems to go against all your safety first accountant's instincts.

I'm sure I've outlined it before, but it basically boils down to what I think the EU will become. The Eurozone (19 countries of EU28) will move towards ever closer fiscal and political union to make the single currency work. There will be a two track EU, and we won't be able - nor should we be able, frankly - to impede / slow down ever closer union for those countries. We'll be in a permanent minority, beholden to decisions taken to appease the Eurozone countries.

If the EU was simply a free trade organisation, I'd be all for it. But it isn't, and suggestions that we can somehow 'reform' it from the inside are fanciful in the extreme given the way they behave when anyone attempts to impede the one-way track they're on. Referenda in France and the Netherlands rejected the EU Constitution. It was repackaged as the Lisbon Treaty. The Irish then rejected it, but were just told to re-run it. Greece ran a referendum to reject its creditor terms, and the EU then fiscally waterboarded them until they accepted even more punitive and clearly ridiculous and unsustainable terms.

The "Commission" are currently investigating Ireland's tax regime using "state aid rules" (I mean, for fuck sake), whilst they've appeared lost on major foreign policy issues, specifically the refugee crisis.

Fuck them, basically.

[Henry]

Ireland is rightly being investigated, having been accused of cutting a specific tax deal with one company. It's not that they don't like the tax rate.

[phonics]

730694321943511041

Worked for Ed

[Jimmy Floyd]

They should probably just round up everyone under 45 who works in politics and put them in front of a firing squad. The national discourse would be much the healthier for it.

[GS]

The Ides was making the point that staff at the Treasury are, on average, 27 years old and only stay in post two years. By the time they've got their head round something, they've fucked off elsewhere. Then a new collection of arrogant wankers walk in, decide they can do it better and start again. Ergo there is zero long-term planning allowed.

[GS]

On a separate note, I see the ONS slipped out statistics demonstrating that net migration was significant higher than the government have been letting on. Top work, lads.

[Lewis]

I'm sure that is true, but isn't long-term planning a political imperative? There will be an element of inertia and uselessness about everybody there, but the wankers are only there to crunch numbers, so the minister should be chucking printers around and doing his best (my man Duncan Sandys was the all-time king of this). Top, top nutter Dominic Cummings of Vote Leave wrote a quality (if self-indulgent) blog (https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/) about Whitehall and how the Department of Education boiled his piss that you might enjoy.

[Boydy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDiGONVJqcU

[Lewis]

It was the evil IMF today, floating a best-case scenario of a 1.5% economic contraction, and a worst-case scenario of 9.5%. Ten per cent. Twice the Great Depression, in other words. What are these people on?

[Boydy]

Isn't the Leave campaign's best case scenario a 4% expansion?

That seems pretty small to be worth risking.

[Lewis]

I don't even care. I just don't know how you can extend your 'credible' estimates to making it as big an economic shock as the end of the First World War.

[Byron]

I did like Patel saying 'they've been wrong before and they're wrong again'

I'm just not sure what all this FEAR gets the Remain campaign.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Who gives a shit about the economic impact. Literally don't care. It should be a decision from the heart. Same as the Scottish thing. If you like being in Europe, vote for that. If you don't, vote for the other.

[Boydy]

Not many of you seemed to be saying that at the Scottish referendum.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was.

[GS]

The difference with the Scottish referendum was that you were looking at seceding from a sovereign, internationally recognised state. It raised questions regarding the currency Scotland was going to use, the proposed size of their banking sector relative to their GDP, the huge reliance the SNP were placing on oil reserves, immediate 'removal' from the EU, NATO, United Nations, G8, G20 etc. etc. The fundamentals were far more profound. Ultimately we're voting to leave a regional bloc.

On the economic question, it's all pointless trying to forecast these things. Absolutely pointless. You can probably count on one hand the number of economists who predicted the 'Global Financial Crisis', yet certain public figures are suddenly pretending that these sort of 'finger in the air' analyses are profoundly important. I think there would be an economic shock for a quarter or two until everybody realised it wasn't the end of the world. Plus we're the fifth biggest economic in the world, in the G8, G20 and Commonwealth, and if we're incapable of managing our own economic affairs then you have to wonder how in the fuck anyone else is remotely capable of it.

The problem that Remain have is that by promoting this sort of Armageddon-type scenario, they have nowhere left to go to in the run-in. It's six weeks out and already the forecasts have reached -10%. I mean, for fuck sake.

[John]

I got my 'HM Government' pamphlet explaining why we're better in the EU through today. It came with a sheet of McDonald's vouchers slipped into the centre page, which is welcome, but not the most absurd thing about it. Page five details how our lives will be improved by the lower mobile phone roaming charges in the EU meaning those in the UK can save money on phone calls. Page nine is about immigration.

As always, I want half an hour with one of the people who writes these things.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I always enjoy studying the pictures in immense detail, because I know that people of inferior raw brain power to myself but a much greater amount of get-up-and-go have put them together just as forensically as I am reading them, and I want to know how they think.

The girl at the breakfast table is always older than the boy.

[John]

This one does have a breakfast table but there's no boy sitting at it. It's in the kitchen of an Asian family with an elderly woman and a young woman sitting at it, a teapot in the foreground, a man in the background drying a mug about four feet away from the sink, and another woman chopping what appears to be an orange.

Other pictures include a headless woman struggling to hold a very heavy shopping basket with both hands, a black man building an engine in the foreground while a white man does the same in the background, and a family with three different hair colours walking away from the camera.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The man had to be doing the drying up and the women sitting down, especially in an Asian family, because as we all know Asian families are just as modern and progressive as all the others.

As for the salt and pepper team of engine builders, well, have you ever seen a workshop with more than one white bloke?

[Lee]

I was just in Hinckley running some errands and an out campaigner stops me. I tell her I'm voting in and she makes arguments as to why I shouldn't and I go back with why I'm happy to stay in. Fair enough, I quite enjoyed the conversation and credit to her for being arsed enough about something to be out there trying.

She then cites some report I've never heard of which says that the EU will have evolved into a federal state by 2025, presumably thinking it will be her clinching argument. Notwithstanding the fact that I think that's a load of bollocks I tell her that I think that's a good thing. She's gone absolutely mental at me and walked off across the road backwards staring at me, shouting "THAT'S NOT DEMOCRACY!!!". Proper nutter. Fuck me.

[Davgooner]

Quality. Can't wait until those cunts appear around here.

[GS]

Aside from the nutter's response, why do you think that's a good thing? Northern Ireland sends three MEPs to the European parliament as it is - they might as well not bother turning up. More decentralisation increases accountability and a sense of genuine involvement in the democratic process - not further centralisation towards Brussels.

[Lewis]

She will have been referring to the Five Presidents Report, which commits them all to proper economic and political union by 2025. It seems a bit ambitious, but the mere existence of it wrecks the status quo arguments.

[GS]

This is it. I think too many people are overlooking the quite fundamental point that you're not voting for the EU as you want it to be, rather what it actually is and what it's going to become. The idea you can reform it to better suit us is absolute hokum.

[Lee]

She will have been referring to the Five Presidents Report, which commits them all to proper economic and political union by 2025. It seems a bit ambitious, but the mere existence of it wrecks the status quo arguments.

I've just had a quick look at it and it's a pipe dream. I can't imagine any of the member states are up for it and given that the EU institutions are made up of representatives from the member states it just isn't a go-er.

[Lewis]

They will need to do something like that after the next economic crisis, otherwise Spain and Italy go down (and France starts wobbling), and then they're done.

[Lee]

I think the Eurozone countries may well. I don't think we'll have any part of it; pr at least if we do it won't be until I'm about ready for the grave.

[GS]

What influence would we have if the Eurozone countries band together? Assuming they do form a superstate, which as Lewis alludes to they will need to in order to make the single currency work, where do the non-Eurozone countries fit in? Constantly outvoted, no right to any sort of veto, and decisions taken to appease Eurozone countries. It's a pointless institution outside the Eurozone.

If you want to stay in, you should really be advocating we join the single currency as well for the position to be a logical one.

[Lewis]

That would be an interesting question to pose Dave and friends (not that you would get an answer). They have made a big deal out of supposedly having secured an exemption from having to join the Euro, so if they were faced with that or being kicked out... I reckon they would suck all of the cock and sign us up.

[GS]

I think it's a question that will be on the table again - probably in the next ten years or so - and presumably when the Germans decide that it's time to clamp down on non-Eurozone countries having their cake and eating it.

[niko_cee]

I've just had a quick look at it and it's a pipe dream. I can't imagine any of the member states are up for it and given that the EU institutions are made up of representatives from the member states it just isn't a go-er.

See the Single European Act in the 1980s, and virtually every other piece of "don't worry, it'll never happen" EU pipe dreaming. It is both the logical, and entirely intended end game.

[GS]

See the Single European Act in the 1980s, and virtually every other piece of "don't worry, it'll never happen" EU pipe dreaming. It is both the logical, and entirely intended end game.

Correct. And that's fine if that's what you want, but at least recognise this is what's likely.

[Lee]

See the Single European Act in the 1980s, and virtually every other piece of "don't worry, it'll never happen" EU pipe dreaming. It is both the logical, and entirely intended end game.

Yeah I wasn't disputing that. I also didn't say never, although I obviously haven't communicated that very well. I was taking about the aspiration to achieve full fiscal and political union within a decade. No chance. Member states don't want it now.

There will likely come a time when they will (European integration has been somewhat cyclical, with big advances rather than continuous evolution) and we'll see a big push forward. Whether the UK will be part of that is debatable. The idea that the EU will move towards a federal model isn't one to put me off voting remain since I don't think a federal Europe would be a bad thing.

[Boydy]

What's the point of a federal European super-state?

[phonics]

What's the point of a federal European super-state?

Worked for America.

[phonics]

P.S. I was all for the EU but this Turkey stuff is becoming an absolute nonsense. Fine if you're trying to stop them being a bunch of genocidal maniacs, funding foreign fighters and crushing any non-Turk population while clamping down on the press but that's exactly what they're doing so fuck them. Get them in the bin with Saudi.

[Boydy]

Worked for America.
It's not even remotely similar.

[phonics]

It's not even remotely similar.

In what sense? The U.S. was nowhere near as unified at it's formation culturally as it is now.

edit: I'm being slightly facetious.

[Lewis]

I think Fox is just drawn to the unaccountable and unmanageable. I'm surprised he isn't pushing for marriage.

[Boydy]

In what sense? The U.S. was nowhere near as unified at it's formation culturally as it is now.

edit: I'm being slightly facetious.

Population size for starters.

They'd have been a lot more similar culturally than Europe currently is too.

And the colonies hadn't been soveriegn nations themselves before.

[Magic]

I've been over this before. America cannot be compared.

By the way I'd happily cede the pound.

[Lewis]

The Americans built their cultural unity on genocide and manifest destiny, which haven't been central to European federalism since the forties.

[Boydy]

It also only worked for America up until they had to have a pretty big war to enforce it.

[Lewis]

The underdeveloped south threatening the stifling economic order devised to benefit the industrialised north. Maybe that's what Europe needs.

[phonics]

Population size for starters.

They'd have been a lot more similar culturally than Europe currently is too.

And the colonies hadn't been soveriegn nations themselves before.

As I said, I was being facetious but we do forget stuff like the national language almost being German had it not lost by a minimal number of votes.

[GS]

The Americans built their cultural unity on genocide and manifest destiny, which haven't been central to European federalism since the forties.

This is it. It involved the quite unashamed use of war and genocide as instruments of imperialist expansion, alongside land purchases and coercion. Land of the free and home of the brave indeed.

[Lewis]

Speaking of which, Boris Johnson happened to have said 'Hitler' whilst making the obviously sensible point that previous attempts to unify Europe have all ended in disaster, and the OUTRAGE bus has kicked into gear and accused him of equating the European Union to the Third Reich. However, polling out tonight claims that people see him as being twice as truthful (45% to 21%) as Dave on the issue, so maybe he is actually untouchable.

[GS]

The polling also suggests that Leave is "winning the argument", as such. 42% to 38% now believe security would be stronger if we left, whilst 57% to 27% believe the borders would be more secure. And in line with the Boris line, 39% to 24% think Vote Leave are more likely to tell the truth than Remain.

Economically, there's still a marginal number of people (33% to 29%) who think they'd be better off if we stayed in the EU compared to leave.

I saw some separate polling earlier which suggested that there's a huge whack of people still undecided. I assume most will just go for the supposed status quo because FEAR - but you never know.

[GS]

Speaking of which, Boris Johnson happened to have said 'Hitler' whilst making the obviously sensible point that previous attempts to unify Europe have all ended in disaster, and the OUTRAGE bus has kicked into gear and accused him of equating the European Union to the Third Reich. However, polling out tonight claims that people see him as being twice as truthful (45% to 21%) as Dave on the issue, so maybe he is actually untouchable.

Mrs Ed Balls has had her say on this:


Former Labour minister Ms Cooper accused Mr Johnson of having a "shameful lack of judgement" and a willingness to play "the most divisive, cynical politics".

She added: "He should not try to play political games with the darkest and most serious chapter of Europe's history. The EU has played a critical role keeping peace in Europe ever since."

Alright, then.

[Lewis]

He's also referred to Roman hegemony as a 'golden age of peace and prosperity', which also ought to be prime OUTRAGE material given that they killed and enslaved millions themselves (and I would have thought daily life for most was worse than it was under the Third Reich). But no, the assumption is that people are stupid.

[Jimmy Floyd]

We don't have video of Augustus Caesar waving his arms about and looking a bit weird, so Pax Romana gets off the hook.

[GS]

An interesting aside from some focus groups on the EU referendum (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/world-war-three-spooks-churchill-boris-itv-referendum-focus-groups-with-41-days-to-go/):


If Boris seemed to our groups to have mixed motives for his position, he was not alone. In fact, with the exception of Nigel Farage, none of the party leaders seemed to be taking a principled stance (though to be fair, nobody in any group has yet mentioned Tim Farron or the Liberal Democrats).

Did Dr Barry ever reappear after the slow unfolding horror of the coalition agreement in 2010?

[Boydy]

Don't you mean Ginner?

Or was Dr Barry a Lib Dem too?

It was Ginner giving it the big one though.

[GS]

Ginner as well. I think it broke dela too.

I saw Tim Farron being interviewed on the Daily / Sunday Politics last week, and it was impossible to take him seriously. They might as well just give up.

[Lewis]

George Osborne, flanked by Ed Balls(!) and Vince Cable(!!), said today that we would risk losing two-hundred billion of trade. I'm not sure how that is measured, but there is something pretty great about him standing there with two people who hate him talking about 'consensus', because the last time we had one of those... (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6975536.stm)

[GS]

The significant discrepancy between phone and online polling continues:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 55% (+4)
Leave: 40% (-3)
(via ORB, phone)

[Lewis]

Even better, Yanis Varoufakis is joining Caroline Lucas and John McDonnell (and a load of other left-wing tossers) on a nationwide Another Europe is Possible tour to campaign for us to stay in and reform it (so that it can no longer shit on countries like Greece and force its finance ministers into alternative employment?). What is wrong with these people? Even the stiffs in the Kremlin eventually let it go.

[GS]

Varoufakis is an interesting one. He gambled that the EU needed Greece to stay in the Euro more than the Greeks needed to stay in, only for Merkel to call his bluff and it to become increasingly clear they were going to fiscally waterboard them until they caved. It wasn't a ridiculous strategy at the time, but you probably shouldn't be underestimating how much of a collection of bastards the EU are.

[Baz]

I tried to find an online questionnaire to tell me how I should vote but the only one I could find was on the daily mirror website and my result was Nick Clegg, who thinks we should remain part of the EU. I guess that's settled then. :cab:

[phonics]

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