The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[Lee]

From the Sunday Times:


Labour sources suggested that there was no way Corbyn, a veteran peace campaigner, would be prepared to stand down before Wednesday and pass up the opportunity to denounce Blair from the dispatch box and TV studios.

The Labour leader will go to Downing Street to read the 2.6m-word Chilcot report on Tuesday in advance of its release and will lead the party’s response. He has suggested in the past that Blair should be in the dock and aides say he is prepared to repeat that claim.

“He won’t resign until after he gets to crucify Blair over Chilcot,” one Labour source said.

Another, who has discussed the issue with a member of Corbyn’s team, said: “He’s going to say that Blair’s a full-on war criminal. He’s very interested by this Salmond idea that you get 12 people calling for him to be extradited to the Hague. He thinks that will fire up Momentum.”

'A prominent Labour MP said he had also learnt that Corbyn wanted to accuse Blair of war crimes but warned that he might be sued by the former prime minister if he did.

“Corbyn will say it in parliament and then he’s planning to address anti-war rallies outside. He’ll have to be careful because if he calls him a war criminal outside the chamber, where he’s got parliamentary immunity, Blair could set the lawyers on him and bankrupt him.”

Fuck me, if that's true. :D

[GS]

It would explain why he's willing to hang on.

It'll also make it very difficult for Labour MPs who voted for the war to oust him and be credible with "the membership". It would be ironic if the Lord Blair has managed to make Labour electable only to ruin them forevermore.

[Yevrah]

He's even more deluded than we all thought if he thinks the results of Chilcot are going to be anything other than a complete whitewash.

[GS]

I think you'll be surprised.

[Disco]

At the results or how deluded he is?

[Byron]

Both.

[GS]

The outcome of Chilcot. Blair won't be going to the Hague, but I reckon he's going to be very heavily criticised.

Remember, one of the reasons it's taken this long is because those who were criticised in it have had the right of reply. Blair has presumably seen relevant passages that are critical of him. He's been touring the TV studios in the last few months, and it strikes me as a pre-emptive move to assert his own 'message' before he gets hammered.

Blair's not shy about these things - he genuinely thinks he was right, and he's laying the groundwork for his defence now.

[Lewis]

Jezza. :cool:

[Lewis]

Why is Theresa May being so shifty about whether or not Europeans can stay? She is getting shit from almost everybody (not least the leave people who all went out of their way to say that they would be able to stay), so it doesn't make a lot of sense unless she is going to threaten Europe with flushing everybody out and crashing their welfare states.

[GS]

Cuntish as it is, I don't really have a problem with her doing it. It's about leverage.

They won't want hundreds of thousands of lads turning up at the airport demanding to know why they couldn't strike a mutually beneficial deal.

[Lee]

It's fuck all leverage. If we send a load of working age people back to their home countries we'll have to accept all of our pensioners/criminals back. It's a stupid stance.

[GS]

Perhaps - you'll want to ensure a reciprocal arrangement so until such time as that's agreed, there's no point unilaterally declaring a position on something which will need to be settled in negotiations. You wouldn't put it past the French to protest that every Brit currently living there will need to leave. They're still trying to obliterate the shame of German occupation, after all. Regardless, it's not like we're ever going to do anything even close to booting people out. It's leverage to confirm a reciprocal arrangement can be put in place.

Incidentally, there's a good article here (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/the-inside-story-of-the-most-infamous-treacherous-week-in-tory-h/) on why Gove knifed Boris. The general aura of shambles after the vote rings true with Boris. It's a shame that the focus will be on the knifing itself, rather than the fact torpedoing Johnson's Prime Ministerial ambitions was a national service.

[Lee]

There's no chance at all that Gove's actions weren't planned well in advance. And fair play to him, really. He's outdone Boris at politics there.

[GS]

I doubt it was. Gove's not stupid - he'll have known what it would look like if he waited until the day nominations were due to open. I reckon he was hoping Boris would be serious after the vote, realised he was still clowning about and ultimately decided he'd be a fucking disaster.

The issue I would have with Theresa May is that I want full severance with the EU. I suspect we'll end up with some EEA-style deal with her, irrespective of whether she appoints a leaver as chief negotiator. Perhaps Gove as the 'Minister for Brexit' would work, alongside a Leaver as foreign secretary, but it'll still be her making the final decision.

[Lewis]

#The48 get their own newspaper (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/exclusive-new-national-newspaper-launched-for-british-people?utm_term=.khll4XAEl9#.giD62qxz6L).


It will be an eclectic and energetic mix of content - not just about the Brexit issue, but a celebration of why we love Europe so much in the first place. There’ll be plenty of humour in there too - god knows we could all use a laugh these days.

Yeah, I bet.

[Shindig]

"And now Stewart Marconie on why Eurovision is amazing..."

[Byron]

#The48 get their own newspaper (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/exclusive-new-national-newspaper-launched-for-british-people?utm_term=.khll4XAEl9#.giD62qxz6L).



Yeah, I bet.

Jesus fucking Christ.

[Lewis]

'The Guardian, yeah. Like that, but even more smug and detached.'

[GS]

I genuinely don't understand why they equate Europe and the EU.

I'm inclined to think it's stupidity.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They still haven't worked out why Leave won. We're not talking all Remainers here either. Maybe less than half of them. We are the 22.

If Remain won, other than Nigel being a bit mouthy, nobody would have moaned.

[Lewis]

In what might be the best sub-heading ever (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/michael-gove-has-an-emotional-need-to-gossip-particularly-when-d/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter): 'Boris Johnson's former campaign manager Ben Wallace writes that Michael Gove is unfit to be Prime Minister because he is a gossip'.

[Magic]

These pricks on Mock the Week are fucking unbearable.

[GS]

I see Gideon has quietly shelved the punishment budget, as expected, and is now discussing lowering the corporation tax rate further to encourage investment.

It's hard to understand why people didn't believe his claims on the economy, the massive cunt.

[ItalAussie]

If Remain won, other than Nigel being a bit mouthy, nobody would have moaned.
Everyone says that about their side. You can't honestly believe it, surely.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Everyone says that about their side. You can't honestly believe it, surely.

It's pretty much nailed on. I can 100% guarantee you there wouldn't be wanker 'marches' and so on.

[phonics]

Turns out we don't have enough Civil Servants to deal with Brexit so we're hiring immigrants to do the job

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmfgGctVYAIWXfg.jpg:large

#TAKEOURCOUNTRYBACK

[Boydy]

It's pretty much nailed on. I can 100% guarantee you there wouldn't be wanker 'marches' and so on.
Yes there would.

Anyway, Farage has resigned as leader of UKIP.

[Magic]

Farge. :(

[phonics]

He'll be back next week.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yes there would.

Anyway, Farage has resigned as leader of UKIP.

There wouldn't. There would be whingeing in online comment sections but in case you haven't noticed, protest is something only undertaken by left-wing London hippies with too much time on their hands.

[phonics]

protest is something only undertaken by left-wing London hippies with too much time on their hands.

Fucking lol.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Oh, and the EDL.

[phonics]

Hadn't realised that David Camerons mum was a "left-wing London hippy".

[GS]

Turns out we don't have enough Civil Servants to deal with Brexit so we're hiring immigrants to do the job

#TAKEOURCOUNTRYBACK

This is part of the reason we needed to leave. We've outsourced far too many aspects of our government to Brussels, and we're devoid of the expertise we need. We haven't had to negotiate our own trade deals for nigh on forty years, so it's hardly surprising there's currently a dearth of trade negotiators with the requisite skills. Part of "taking our country back", as you so tolerantly put it, is that at least our government will now be responsible for this sort of thing in future.


There wouldn't. There would be whingeing in online comment sections but in case you haven't noticed, protest is something only undertaken by left-wing London hippies with too much time on their hands.

Jimmy is right here. Leave didn't expect to win, so a reverse result would have seen some whinging from UKIP, perhaps some calls for a second referendum further down the line. You certainly would not have had prominent leave campaigners in parliament turning up to speak to these rallies as Tim Farron (prominent - lol) has, and you certainly wouldn't have the broadly positive coverage these marches have had.

Ultimately the same sort of people turning up to this march are the same type who marched to Downing St when Cameron won the election and demanded he step down because he was "a Tory". They just have nothing better to do, and buy into the hard left view that protest is a valid contribution to democracy.

Farage resigning is good fun, at least. It sort of torpedoes the idea that Nigel would be "running riot" after the vote.

In other remain backtracking:

749875088330199040

Nice one, Gideon, mate.

[phonics]

The moral superiority hoops you lot have to jump through :D

'Its the EUs fault we haven't got negotiators (ignoring the fatc we haven't got Nurses, Doctors, Teachers, etc.)' 'We wouldn't have protested 'They've got nothing better to do' ' 'Smelly hippies'

But yeah, Remain are the sneering upper class elites.

[Lewis]

It is their fault we don't have enough trade negotiators because we have negotiated trade through them for forty years, which has meant we haven't needed to keep loads on staff. What are you on about?

[GS]

It would be completely pointless and counterproductive to employ a team of experienced trade negotiators who cannot then, in fact, negotiate with anybody. Not only have the EU been shit at negotiating trade deals (TTIP, lads), but their very existence has prevented bespoke deals being negotiated between ourselves and other countries on a bilateral basis.

And yes, protesting of this nature is largely the preserve of the left in this country. The extreme right may protest march, but you get a few skinheads who are then drowned out by a counter protest. If the result had been reversed, you wouldn't have seen the level of denial and rejection of it that you have. This is because people would have voted for the status quo, and that inevitably carries less sense of drama.

[phonics]

If the result had been reversed, you wouldn't have seen the level of denial and rejection of it that you have. This is because people would have voted for the status quo, and that inevitably carries less sense of drama.

Yeah, worked just that way for Scottish Independence.

edit: GS thinks Britain would have negotiated a better deal than TTIP :D I know people who were on the American side of the negotiations for those meetings, we were just as active in them as everyone else. We want corporate dominance just as much as everyone else does.

[ItalAussie]

It's pretty much nailed on. I can 100% guarantee you there wouldn't be wanker 'marches' and so on.

I don't want to make too much hay of this for political arguments, but it's still true that only one side had a supporter kill someone during the campaign.

I'm not suggesting that all, most, or even many leave supporters are like that. The vast, vast majority aren't. But it's pretty clear that there was anger behind the vote. They wouldn't exactly have been sipping tea and praising the beauty of the democratic system if they'd not won the vote. Given that race-based incidents went up 500% in the week after the referendum, I dread to see what that number would've been if they lost.

[GS]

I don't want to make too much hay of this for political arguments, but it's still true that only one side had a supporter kill someone during the campaign.

I'm not suggesting that all, most, or even many leave supporters are like that. But it's pretty clear that they wouldn't have been sipping tea and praising the beauty of the democratic system if they'd lost. Given that race-based incidents went up 500% in the week after the referendum, I dread to see what that number would've been if they lost.

That's quite a wanker statement to make, Ital. One person with a mental illness does not a wider problem make.

Again, there may have been small pockets of protests in the event of a remain vote but a) it would not have been anywhere near as large and b) it would not get the broadly positive coverage it's getting.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They've had their side 'lose' for 40 years, life would have gone on. The reaction we've seen is because some pro-Remainers who haven't ever thought any other way have had a bit of a shock to the system.

As for the race-based incidents, a few of society's dregs seemed to think they were voting dark-skinned people onto the first boat home, rather than to Leave the EU. I'd say the result encouraged those things if anything.

[phonics]

a) it would not have been anywhere near as large and b) it would not get the broadly positive coverage it's getting.

Ah yes, the liberal media conspiracy, it was only a matter of time.

[GS]

Yeah, worked just that way for Scottish Independence.

edit: GS thinks Britain would have negotiated a better deal than TTIP :D I know people who were on the American side of the negotiations for those meetings, we were just as active in them as everyone else. We want corporate dominance just as much as everyone else does.

Of course you know people on the American negotiating team. Of course.

You're also making jumps in your conclusions. I said that TTIP was a shit deal. Which it is. If that's the best the EU can do, then fuck them.

[GS]

Ah yes, the liberal media conspiracy, it was only a matter of time.

Who said it was a conspiracy?

[phonics]

Of course you know people on the American negotiating team. Of course.

It's almost like I went to an International School based in the same city as pretty much every major embassy in the world. We've got a diplomatic family or two here.

[GS]

Well, that's me convinced.

[phonics]

Well, that's me convinced.

I did post a picture of his FB from when he concluded the TPP but I decided not to blow it up. Choose to believe or don't. I don't particularly care, seeing as the thing you're saying isn't true is us not having someone in the room which is just dumb.

You just go on telling us how "We’re gonna win so much! We’re going to win at every level. We’re going to win economically. We’re going to win with the economy. We’re gonna win with military. We’re gonna win with the NHS and for our veterans. We’re gonna with every single facet.We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, “Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. GS, it’s too much.” And I’ll say, “No, it isn’t!” We have to keep winning We have to win more! We’re gonna win more. We’re gonna win so much."

[GS]

Where did I say we didn't have someone in the room?

[phonics]

So what parts of the shit TTIP do you think will change based on a UK-US trade deal? Negotiated for us by Americans on behalf of us BECAUSE OF THE BLOODY EU.

[Lewis]

Why are you even seething this much?

[GS]

The EU requires consensus amongst 28 member states, inevitably making it far more difficult to reach that consensus. Where you are negotiating on a bilateral basis, you should be able to reach a bespoke deal which is mutually beneficial for both parties in a much quicker timeframe and you can also hold the government of the day accountable if the deals reached and put to parliament are shit.

CETA is another example, where a deal between ourselves (at a European level) and the Canadians has been ongoing for eight years and is still being held up over Bulgarian and Romanian dissatisfaction over visa arrangements for their citizens. Without the EU, one suspects we could have negotiated a trade deal with Canada years ago given they share our language, our system of parliamentary democracy and a legal system that has developed from our common law.

The EU has been a barrier to effective, and accountable, trade negotiations between the UK and other countries on a bilateral basis because we have outsourced our ability to make those deals to Brussels, who have done a very poor job of it.

[GS]

Why are you even seething this much?

It's bizarre, isn't it.

I see he's edited a previous post to include another rant too. Seething.

[phonics]

Why are you even seething this much?

I tried to think of a reason better than GS is a wank but I'm fine with that one. I just posted a funny story about our vote for seething anti-immigrants is having us shop in a bunch of immigrants to negotiate a deal to stop the immigrants.

cue GS wanking on about 'sovereignty'.

edit: On the other edit, nah you just sound a bit Trumpesque in how your side is always right and the other side is a bunch of losers plus I find that one of the most hilarious political speeches of all time so I'll use it wherever I can.

[Davgooner]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36699642

Great.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Good thing that emergency budget wasn't needed, really.

[ItalAussie]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36699642

Great.

How contrary to what he otherwise would have done. :D

[Bartholomert]

I don't want to make too much hay of this for political arguments, but it's still true that only one side had a supporter kill someone during the campaign.

I'm not suggesting that all, most, or even many leave supporters are like that. The vast, vast majority aren't. But it's pretty clear that there was anger behind the vote. They wouldn't exactly have been sipping tea and praising the beauty of the democratic system if they'd not won the vote. Given that race-based incidents went up 500% in the week after the referendum, I dread to see what that number would've been if they lost.

Ital you're better than this post. You're supposed to be the emotionally detached objective academic here, this is an embarrassment. If you think for one second that the hypothetical response in the wake of a Remain victory would in any way would have been comparable in scope, coverage, and support from mainstream politicians, you are genuinely and very sadly, divorced from reality.

[Bartholomert]

Ah yes, the liberal media conspiracy, it was only a matter of time.

You realize that the center-left bias of the mainstream media has been exhaustively and empirically proven, right? So when you try to dismiss it as a conspiracy, you are just being ignorant. It's like saying 'oh lol that whole gravity conspiracy haha.'

[Bartholomert]

Additionally, this is a great article (Spoiler: yelling racist! is an overly simplistic interpretation of the populist spring in the West)

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/03/brexit-and-beyond-the-great-unruly-rebellion-against-the-neo-liberal-crony-capitalists.html

[phonics]

You realize that the center-left bias of the mainstream media has been exhaustively and empirically proven, right? So when you try to dismiss it as a conspiracy, you are just being ignorant. It's like saying 'oh lol that whole gravity conspiracy haha.'

I'm really not sure you've seen our newspapers Mert. I'd describe The Guardian and The Independent (no longer a newspaper) as Centre-Left and the rest vary from center to hard right.

edit: I forgot The Mirror which is bounces back and forth depending on who's editing the thing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

There's no 'hard right' newspaper, other than the Express. The Mail changes with the tide, the Sun is just populist, and the Times is a centrist apologist load of wank (don't be fooled by MURDOCH AAAAH ownership).

The Telegraph is as right as the Guardian is left.

Also, nobody is forced to buy any newspaper. People could buy the Morning Star if they wanted.

[phonics]

There's no 'hard right' newspaper, other than the Express. The Mail changes with the tide, the Sun is just populist, and the Times is a centrist apologist load of wank (don't be fooled by MURDOCH AAAAH ownership).

The Telegraph is as right as the Guardian is left.

Also, nobody is forced to buy any newspaper. People could buy the Morning Star if they wanted.

Hence why I don't think there is a liberal media conspiracy.

[Bartholomert]

Hence why I don't think there is a liberal media conspiracy.

We gunna pretend television doesn't exist, or that FB and Google don't manipulate their algorithms to promote a particular liberal agenda?

[Byron]

If we say yes will you bugger off?

[ItalAussie]

People largely get their political news from the papers in the UK, as far as I could tell. The TV was too busy with The Great British Bake-Off and Come Dine With Me.

Australia is kind of similar, actually. I found the preponderance of politically-oriented television in the US to be slightly weird.


EDIT: I won't hear a word against Come Dine With Me, incidentally. It never stopped being entertaining, even if it is nakedly left-wing propaganda of the worst sort.

[Lewis]

The BBC is the most dominant media outlet by far, and that, whilst not necessarily being left-wing, is soaked in the sort of wanker worldview that makes it so hard for the remain losers to understand why they got donned. Their coverage since has been one long MELTDOWN.

[John]

We gunna pretend television doesn't exist, or that FB and Google don't manipulate their algorithms to promote a particular liberal agenda?

Facebook isn't 'the media', you twonk. If people in the UK were going to complain about any media bias it would be towards the right. You need to stop thinking the problems you perceive in America are universal.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The BBC is the most dominant media outlet by far, and that, whilst not necessarily being left-wing, is soaked in the sort of wanker worldview that makes it so hard for the remain losers to understand why they got donned. Their coverage since has been one long MELTDOWN.

It's a metropolitan liberal bias, because everyone who works there is metropolitan and (probably) liberal, regardless of party allegiance. There's BBC Manchester and BBC Wales, but no BBC Sink Estates or BBC Former Industrial Towns.

They are also pitching it to the same people. It's another echo chamber, in many ways.

[GS]

People largely get their political news from the papers in the UK, as far as I could tell. The TV was too busy with The Great British Bake-Off and Come Dine With Me.

Australia is kind of similar, actually. I found the preponderance of politically-oriented television in the US to be slightly weird.


EDIT: I won't hear a word against Come Dine With Me, incidentally. It never stopped being entertaining, even if it is nakedly left-wing propaganda of the worst sort.

It's actually only one in five who predominantly get their coverage from the newspapers - here (http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bbc-important-referendum-information/).

As Lewis alludes to, the BBC do have a particular 'slant' on stories. In this case, they have been more 'sympathetic', if you will, to the remain side of the argument. This doesn't amount to a conspiracy, as phonics seems at pains to keep claiming, but it clearly influences the discourse when it's not wholly impartial.

[phonics]

It's a metropolitan liberal bias, because everyone who works there is metropolitan and (probably) liberal, regardless of party allegiance. There's BBC Manchester and BBC Wales, but no BBC Sink Estates or BBC Former Industrial Towns.

They are also pitching it to the same people. It's another echo chamber, in many ways.

Ah yes, Wales that bastion of liberalism. The entirety of Wales is bloody Former Industrial Towns or farmers.

[GS]

Ah yes, Wales that bastion of liberalism. The entirety of Wales is bloody Former Industrial Towns.

BBC Wales, based in Cardiff (60% remain). It will also, inevitably, be comprised of young, educated people who went to university and thus have a particular world view.

[phonics]

It's actually only one in five who predominantly get their coverage from the newspapers - here (http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bbc-important-referendum-information/).

Are they including Newspaper websites in Newspapers or does that go under Social Media?

What does Social Media even mean? If I follow The Daily Mail and The Guardian and read my news through my Twitter feed, am I not reading a newspaper?

[GS]

Are they including Newspaper websites in Newspapers or does that go under Social Media?

What does Social Media even mean? If I follow The Daily Mail and The Guardian and read my news through my Twitter feed, am I not reading a newspaper?

There is plenty of further information within the link if you want to dig into it, none of us are going to do it for you.

[Boydy]

EDIT: I won't hear a word against Come Dine With Me, incidentally. It never stopped being entertaining, even if it is nakedly left-wing propaganda of the worst sort.

This thread is mostly boring now with the same people saying the same old things but this needs to be addressed. What?

[phonics]

There is plenty of further information within the link if you want to dig into it, none of us are going to do it for you.

If you had actually read into the 'plenty of further information' then you would realise my answers not in there.

They provide the actual data which provides the questions/answers but it just states 'British Newspapers' and 'Social Media' without stating what they quantify these as (I guess it would just be people choosing at random which seems a rather shitty methodology) so I looked into the link that stated how they did their methodology and got this


Fieldwork Dates10th– 16th June 2016Data Collection MethodFieldwork was conducted online. Invitations to participate were sent to membersof online panels. Non-response from different demographic groups was taken intoaccount during the fieldwork phase and post-fieldwork adjustments.SampleAll residents aged 18+ in Great Britain. The sample size is 1468 respondents.WeightingResults were weighted to reflect the profile of adults 18+, living in social housingin England. Targets were Age/Sex, Government Office Region (GOR), Indices ofMultiple Deprivation (IMD) and the 2015 General Election results. All targets arebased on Official Statistics from the ONS that are awarded National Statisticsstatus or from the Elections Centre at Plymouth University.Margin of ErrorAs a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a marginof error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of thesampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere withinthe margin of error. For example, where 50% of a given population (the worst casescenario) responded in a particular way, with a sample of 1,500 we can be 95%certain that the actual value will fall 2.5% either side of the result. However, where90% of a given population responded in a particular way, with a sample of 1,500we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 1.5% of the estimate. Usersshould note that subsamples within cross-breaks will be subject to a higher marginof error, so any conclusions drawn should be treated with caution.Questions & PresentationAll results are shown in full below, in order, and using the wording that was put torespondents. For questions where the list of responses is names of parties, namesor statements, these will typically have been displayed to respondents in a randomorder, but be ordered in the attached tables. Questions typically not shown in arandom order are those where there is a natural or accepted order to maintain i.e. ascale from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree”, a list of numbers from 0 to 10,or questions that have a factual, rather than opinion-related answer, such as keydemographic information. Responses such as “Other”, “Don't know” and“Refused” are not usually randomised.Data were collected, analysed and weighted by BMG Research.BMG is a Company Partner of the Market Research Society (MRS), member of theBritish Polling Council (BPC) and abides by their rules.Contact UsFor further information, or to place your questions on our next omnibus, pleasecontact:polling@bmgresearch.co.uk0121 333 6006

Which doesn't answer my question either. So I asked it here as you take polls as gospel I thought you might have a fucking clue.

Thanks for being a patronising cunt but it does go to show how absolutely useless these polls are which is nice.

[GS]

Where did I say I take polls as gospel?

I suggest you write a letter of complaint to the polling company, and direct your seethe towards a productive outcome.

[phonics]

Seethe? All I did was question a poll you quoted.

It's like talking to mert but instead of a polo shirt and board shorts, it's an orange sash and a chastity belt.

[GS]

You also erroneously assert that people have said certain things or hold certain positions, presumably so you can refute the point you want to rather than their actual point or view.

You've pretty much manufactured a case for both the prosecution and the defence entirely of your own making throughout the course of the day.

[phonics]

Is this at the point where I just quote every post with IpsosMori, YouGov and BMG and your following analysis of the elections based on these polls or should I let you do your own research?

[GS]

I'm sure we'll be fine.

Moving on from your meltdown, Jez We Can is getting absolutely bollocked by Keith Vaz on his own history of associating with anti-semites at the Home Affairs Committee. He's ON THE ROPES massively.

[Byron]

He just needs to survive two more days then he can fuck off.

[John]

Metro are dubbing Nigel Farage's resignation 'Nigexit'. That should make for a good hashtag. Nobody will misunderstand that.

[Byron]

:D You know that's been thought up by the dim intern there and no one has stopped to think about it.

[Magic]

Phonics. :D

[SvN]

Brexit is going to be the UK version of Watergate, isn't it? For the next few years, every time anyone leaves a football club, political position, job, or ANYTHING, it's going to be turned into a EXIT suffixed pun.

[Disco]

It's been good for me so far, customers who wouldn't give me the time of day are crawling out of the woodwork because our main competitor only sells direct from Europe.

[Dquincy]

Supposed to be humour, but I found this quite apt.


https://youtu.be/WcXf1Fz5Fw4

[Bartholomert]

That was alright. Why can't we do the thing where we disagree with parts of the electorate but still act / think reasonably anymore?

[phonics]

we?

[GS]

There was a Tory hustings tonight. Leadsom was shit, apparently, whilst Gove was 'impressive'. No doubt the Tories will conspire with tactical voting to end up with May v Leadsom in the final round, only for Leadsom to somehow win 51-49 and break the country.

I don't mind her, but she's not ready for Prime Minister. Neither is Crabb. I wouldn't mind Liam Fox, but he has about three MPs supporting him and is surely going out tomorrow. Gove and May are the only two viable candidates - and you can decide for yourself which of the two is more to your liking.

[Raoul Duke]

That's like having a favourite flavour of shit sandwich

[Jimmy Floyd]

You wouldn't mind Liam Fox? Even Liam Fox minds Liam Fox.

Has to be Theresa, even though she is absolutely terrible.

[GS]

It would be if you're a metropolitan liberal, yes.

[GS]

You wouldn't mind Liam Fox? Even Liam Fox minds Liam Fox.

Has to be Theresa, even though she is absolutely terrible.

Relative to Crabb and Leadsom, yes.

My concern with May, as outlined previously, is we end up with Brexit lite and then what's the point. If she puts in a clearly Eurosceptic team to deal with the negotiations, these concerns might be mitigated.

That said, I agree it needs to be May - unless she's up against Gove. But the latter isn't an option given the 'et tu, Brute' view that people have taken.

[Shindig]

I can't look past the fact Gove is an English Millhouse.

[Lewis]

I reckon Theresa May is a smart enough politician to get the exit right. It's everything else that ought to make people think again, because it will just years more of the same shit. Michael Gove would at least kick a few departments up the arse and get things done (and get involved with every war going because he's a mental).

Still, there is a lol to be had at the evil Conservative Party having two female Prime Ministers before Labour can even flush its communists out. The progressive majority.

[Magic]

Thinking about getting 200 Euros just in case the pound drops further, but not too much in case it rises slightly again. What do people think?

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you're betting against the pound, do it in something other than Euros.

[Magic]

I'm holidaying in October, unfortunately. This is all nico's fault.

[Kikó]

Unless your bagging big money, all you're going to do is lose a couple of quid your stinge.

[Dquincy]

I'm holidaying in October, unfortunately. This is all nico's fault.

Rosberg? He should have turned in sooner, but that's a bit harsh.

[Magic]

Unless your bagging big money, all you're going to do is lose a couple of quid your stinge.

I am bagging big money, is £400 not big money like? Fucking spot the big shot, eh me me me I work in THE CITY and go to India and stuff WITH WORK but I'm secretly depressed because I want to be like a cross between Manc Sean and R-1 and be true to me roots but I was regarded as posh in MADCHESTER so that kind of sucks but nobody needs to know because The Happy Stone Oasis though.

[Kikó]

I'll spot you the fiver you impoverished bastard.

[Shindig]

I hear Portuguese families pay big for British children.

[Jimmy Floyd]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign

A fascinating read on how the Remain campaign came a cropper. Short version: lol Will Straw.

[GS]

Ryan Coetzee is an interesting one. You'd think running a campaign which resulted in your party losing about four dozen MPs to end up single figures would be sufficient to disqualify you from a post focused on political strategy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

There's quite a nice seethe from him right at the end of the article.

[GS]

I've just got there:


For Coetzee, the result reflected a debasement of Britain’s political culture: the traducing, with media complicity, of rational discourse by a leave campaign that targeted the very idea of factual argument. “We underestimated their willingness to be mendacious and xenophobic,” he said. “When a lot of people in a society feel that life has passed them by, they don’t much like their present and they don’t see a path to the future, offering them an enemy is not clever. It is easy. Nationalism triumphed over liberalism, populism triumphed over evidence and expertise; paranoia triumphed over trust.”

They've just no idea, really.

[Shindig]

Deary me. "I can't see what went wrong. Must be racism."

[Davgooner]

Pretty much spot on, though.

Meanwhile Juncker's calling out those who've deserted Brexit post-referendum.

[phonics]

Seems Demerit was spot on with his analysis. Aviva have suspended their UK property investment fund leading the poud to fall to the lowest against the dollar since 1985.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Bad for estate agents and evil baby boomers, good for THE YOUNG.

[phonics]

I'm going to be single handedly keeping the tourism market afloat if the pound keeps dropping like it is.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Isn't a plunging pound great for tourism? It'll soon only cost you nine rupees for a Cornish pasty.

Not so good for imports.

[phonics]

All political discourse needs to be politicians talking to each other not realising they're on camera.

http://news.sky.com/story/1721982/watch-ken-clarke-ridicules-tory-candidates

"She can be a bloody difficult woman but you and I worked for Thatcher"

[Lee]

I was expecting worse from Clarke after reading the headlines. The most important thing to come from this is that he is clearly retiring because he's dying. Look at the fucking state of him. He's almost thin.

[GS]

Pretty much spot on, though.

Meanwhile Juncker's calling out those who've deserted Brexit post-referendum.

I like the idea that Nigel Farage, not an MP and told by the Tories he won't be allowed to be involved, has 'deserted the field'. What field was he on, exactly? It's the same with Boris. It's a nice idea to say "you break it, you own it" - but if he can't win the ballot, why bother?

Seething.

[GS]

Gove has performed better than expected in the first round, and Leadsom has underwhelmed. If May voters have any sense, they'll vote for Gove in the second round to cut Leadsom out at the knees and send Gove and May through to the membership. The latter is more likely to STORM IT then.

[Lewis]

Stephen Crabb has gone. Timewaster.

[Dquincy]

Gove has performed better than expected in the first round, and Leadsom has underwhelmed. If May voters have any sense, they'll vote for Gove in the second round to cut Leadsom out at the knees and send Gove and May through to the membership. The latter is more likely to STORM IT then.

May has this in the bag regardless, you numpty.

[GS]

Stephen Crabb has gone. Timewaster.

He might have been fine as leader of the opposition, but he fucking clearly was never viable as a Prime Minister. Self-indulgence of the worst kind to run now.


May has this in the bag regardless, you numpty.

You'd expect she would, but never doubt the membership's ability to shoot itself in the foot. Although the Tory membership like winning, and are less inclined to ruining their own party than the Labour lot.

[GS]

750018975841525761

Fair play, Nigel.

[Lewis]

He seems a bit gay there.

[GS]

Can we rename this the politics thread?

Chilcot is out tomorrow. Jezza is presumably sharpening his claws as we speak.

This is quite good too:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmoWu5hWgAAl1n0.jpg

[Lewis]

It's not referendum fallout, so just bump the existing politics thread.

[Dquincy]

I've had 4 commercial projects postponed from 2 separate investment funds due to the referendum decision.

Here comes the recession...

[GS]

It's not referendum fallout, so just bump the existing politics thread.

Do we have one? I assumed everything had just been dumped in here for the last five months.

[Bartholomert]

I've had 4 commercial projects postponed from 2 separate investment funds due to the referendum decision.

Here comes the recession...

Minor recession vs. political sovereignty. No brainer.

[phonics]

Chilcot gets it's own thread to lol at how much of a whitewash it all is while Jezza posts Blair to The Hague. Royal Mail, obvs.

[Raoul Duke]

At least this Chilcot guy gets to do his thing, rather than getting croaked in a field by MI5

[Jimmy Floyd]

Gove has performed better than expected in the first round, and Leadsom has underwhelmed. If May voters have any sense, they'll vote for Gove in the second round to cut Leadsom out at the knees and send Gove and May through to the membership. The latter is more likely to STORM IT then.

If this happens, and then the Govester completes his masterplan by pulling out of the race and leaving it uncontested, we should all buy him a drink for actually managing to win politics.

[GS]

http://www.politico.eu/article/credibility-of-europes-trade-policy-at-stake/?utm_content=buffer5bb3e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

They're so shit.

[Bartholomert]

http://www.politico.eu/article/credibility-of-europes-trade-policy-at-stake/?utm_content=buffer5bb3e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

They're so shit.

What's the point then really...

[Davgooner]

I like the idea that Nigel Farage, not an MP and told by the Tories he won't be allowed to be involved, has 'deserted the field'. What field was he on, exactly? It's the same with Boris. It's a nice idea to say "you break it, you own it" - but if he can't win the ballot, why bother?

Seething.

Most are just realising that the vote itself was the high-water mark of the anti EU movement. Better to allow others to negotiate a way forward and make the compromises that would have made them look like gurning wankers.

[Yevrah]

How would Nigel Farage have ever been anywhere near the negotiations?

[Davgooner]

He wouldn't I don't think.

[phonics]

He'll take a Tory peerage in the House of Lords to show the EU what a real un-elected Government can do.

[Jimmy Floyd]

More chance of you getting a Tory peerage than him.

[GS]

Most are just realising that the vote itself was the high-water mark of the anti EU movement. Better to allow others to negotiate a way forward and make the compromises that would have made them look like gurning wankers.

It's about capacity to deliver. Farage has resigned and is being accused of deserting the field. He had no capacity whatsoever to deliver, so what does it matter? It's the same with Boris. He wasn't PM, and he wasn't going to win the contest when Gove announced he was standing.

It's just an excuse for people to whinge about being 'duped' again.


How would Nigel Farage have ever been anywhere near the negotiations?

Well, he wouldn't. It's why his resignation is completely irrelevant in the context of the next steps for the UK's settlement with the EU.

[GS]

The state of this crowd on QT about the EU referendum. :harold:

[Lewis]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/09/after-brexit-british-passport-badge-of-shame-ed-vulliamy

:(

[Jimmy Floyd]

At my cafe off Avenue du Maine in Paris, regulars gathering for early evening drinks regard Brexit, with some relief to me, as a source of laidback, faintly superior humour.

Auguste, focal point of the group, suggests that Britain is, like Venice, an island and like Venice probably sinking, and felt that it needed to decrease the weight of people in order to slow the submergence. “But it’s the other way round! Now the foreigners will have to leave, and you’ll sink even faster!”

Auguste is here all week.

[GS]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/09/after-brexit-british-passport-badge-of-shame-ed-vulliamy

:(

Where's that Orwell quote about the intellectual liberals who literally hate their own country.

Still, it's quite an amazing seethe.

[GS]

Referendum fall-out in the 'north of Ireland' continues, with the leader of Fianna Fail in the south suggesting Irish reunification has moved closer.

They love a bit of delusion, these lads.

[Lewis]

http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/BrexitJustice

:harold:

[Kikó]

I kinda get their point. The whole campaign (both sides) ran on way too many Bullshits for comfort.

[niko_cee]

Everything in modern life is a lie.

Presumably they'll be taking Dnald Tusk to task as well as western civilisation doesn't seem to have fallen just yet.

It would be quite good to be the person who trousered the £100k for advice where you basically lol them into the sun for their own stupidity.

[GS]

Both sides talked absolute shit. It would help if people stopped tried to fight for the referendum campaign all over again. You've already lost, lads.

[Bartholomert]

Woops, actually Brexit is supposed to coincide with growth not a recession:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3698476/IMF-clowns-admit-got-wrong-Brexit-doom-gloom-warnings-saying-British-economy-grow-faster-Germany-France.html

[GS]

I did like Hollande trying to play hard ball earlier in the week. He's out the door in less than a year and he'll go as one of the least popular heads of state this side of a genocide. Well done.

May seems to have donned him in the talks today though, so that'll do. I see the Calais border controls will be staying in Calais. "But they'll move to Kent", they said.

[niko_cee]

They've appointed some French Grande Ecole Europhile anti-British fanatic to lead the negotiations on the part of the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/eu-appoints-former-french-minister-who-blames-britain-for-losing/

:drool:

I'm sure the Germans will be thrilled. Enjoy Armageddon.

[GS]

The Commission are desperate to retain relevance in this, as almost all of it will end up being handled by the Council.

You'd almost feel sorry for Juncker if he wasn't doing so well out of our tax money.

[Lewis]

YouGov said its poll of 1,006 voters in Scotland in late July put support for independence at 47 per cent when “don’t knows and wouldn’t votes” were excluded, up slightly from the 45 per cent who backed leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum. But support for independence was lower when the issue was put in a post-Brexit context. Asked if they would rather live in a Scotland that was in the EU but not the UK, or a Scotland that was in the UK but not the EU, only 45 per cent backed independence, YouGov said.

Shocking that mate. Whilst another referendum defeat might not see the SNP off, would it be fair to say that it would give the government the freedom to ignore them forever?

[Byron]

I'd argue it would probably finish the SNP. They had their referendum, if they got another, had the added advantage of being able to push the 'EU' factor and still managed to lose then where is the argument? I don't see what else could happen to justify a third referendum given that Brexit is one of the biggest things to happen in recent years.

After that the only way you go is down and I imagine in 10 years time, the SNP will be back as the irrelevant moaners they were previously.

[GS]

It depends on the franchise, I think. If they do what they did last time which is let EU nationals vote, then you suspect support would be higher. I'd be telling them it's a British constitutional question and therefore they'll be using the general election franchise or none at all.

The truth is they had every conceivable advantage last time out and still lost. Now you'd be advocating choosing the EU over the UK (15% of exports versus 66%), the euro over sterling, and a £10bn annual deficit which the EU would laugh at you for.

The whole thing is just anti-English sentiment masquerading as 'independence'. The party might not be finished, as you have a sizeable minority with a considerable chip on their shoulder, but it would certainly ruin Salmond and Sturgeon's political aspirations. The pair of them are so determined to FREE SCOTLAND, and be the ones to do it, that they're incapable of actually governing properly - everything is conducted in the context of the constitutional question.

It was good fun watching that Named Person shite get thrown out by the Supreme Court, mind you. Fucking hell, the state of them.

[Kikó]

Every conceivable advantage? Like every media outlet and politician telling people to vote remain?

And of course it's anti English. It couldn't possibly be pro Scottish.

[GS]

Indeed. They were allowed to select the timing (2014 being the 700th anniversary of Bannockburn), the franchise (giving the vote to 16/17 year olds and EU nationals, but not to Scots living in the rest of the UK), the question (making their side the more positive 'yes'), the referendum was conducted at a time when oil prices were over $100 a barrel and the onshore deficit could be neatly disguised therein and during a prolonged programme of austerity driven by a Tory government in Westminster.

The 'no' side conducted the campaign horribly, and only latterly corrected their mistakes (like calling it 'Better Together' and thus preventing the sort of clear messaging that takes hold like 'Vote Leave, Take Control'). The SNP were able to present the same 'blank slate' message as Vote Leave, that voting with them meant you could have milk and honey three times a day.

Despite all of those advantages in timing, franchise, question control, a strong oil market, a Tory government, national austerity with disorganised, crap opposition and a 'blank slate' message that everything was possible - they still lost, and lost by a good margin. If Brexit isn't a sufficient enough constitutional shock to prompt a significant move in public opinion, nothing ever will be.

[GS]

759387749317283840

This is quite a good poll actually, as it demonstrates quite clearly the 'choice' post-Brexit. Ultimately if Scotland has a choice between two single markets - the UK or the EU - logic dictates that there is no choice to make. Exports are 64% to the UK, in a 'single market' with the same currency etc., and only 15% to the EU.

When you further consider that there's a £10bn deficit in Scottish finances (onshore only) - equivalent to a transfer of not far shy of £2K per person from rUK to Scotland, there's no serious argument one could make for independence right now. Oil is trading in the $40s at the minute, and you'd need it to push well past $60 per barrel before north sea production is even profitable. Even then, the industry is wanting massive tax breaks to try and get it kickstarted again, so tax revenues are never plugging the gap.

The idea that Scotland could do better outside the UK clearly doesn't stand up to any sort of serious scrutiny - if they did separate, they'd have a £10bn gap to plug with tax hikes and spending cuts. It's not exactly 'pro-Scotland' to advocate a position which will self-evidently cripple the economy.

By the way, before anybody makes a comparison with the Leave campaign, you'd note that if the EU were subsidising the UK to the equivalent of £2K a person - or about £130bn a year - then there would have been a landslide vote for Remain.

[Yevrah]

It's a massively anti-English movement, there's a core group of Scots who fucking hate us.

[Lewis]

I wonder whether it's a deliberate strategy to let Wee Jimmy Krankie run her mouth about all sorts of lol scenarios for keeping Scotland in the European Union. The government could (and really should) shut that shite down tomorrow, so, unless they're truly bricking it about them leaving this time, they can only be letting her show herself up for a reason.

[GS]

I assume there's a concern that 'shutting her down' would just give her more ammunition to complain about 'Westminster arrogance'. She's already designed her 'Brexit tests' to fail, so when they inevitably do she'll claim that 'the road must be independence'. Westminster have a very strong economic hand to play, so there's no point being deliberately provocative. Let her complain all she wants, the truth is an independent Scotland would run itself into the ground very, very quickly. She fucking knows it too. It's difficult to pretend your position is 'pro-Scotland' when your policy would actively shaft the entire country.

The problem for her is that the polls simply don't support going for it - she'd need at least 60% consistently to account for the campaigning swing, risk averse voters saying one thing and voting the other and the status quo (EU referendum excepted) bias. She's sitting well below that now, and if Brexit can't swing it then it's hard to see what does.

The best thing to do from May's perspective is to look accommodating and let the Nats look difficult / like whingers. I also suspect there's a plan to let the SNP government 'expose' itself as just not very good. It's fine agitating from the sidelines, but when you're confronted with actual responsibility it makes it difficult for you to blame other people. A few more lol policies like Named Person and a few swings back from the SNP at the next election will check their momentum, and help to ruin any plan Sturgeon has to make independence seem inevitable.

[Lewis]

http://i66.tinypic.com/n707m1.jpg

:cool:

[John]

What happened with the Gogglebox Asians?

EDIT - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1536684/googleboxs-siddiqui-brothers-reported-to-terror-cops-after-isis-gag-on-facebook/

:D

[Yevrah]

I missed this at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivOOM0PbNps

Fucking hell.

[GS]

Hannan did well not to lamp her.

There's a documentary on tomorrow night which, judging from the few clips I've seen on the news, is going to be the likes of Will Straw CBE and Anna Soubry passing the blame as much as possible to anybody else. Mainly Jezza.