U.S. Presidential Election 2016 (Sponsored by Betty Croker's Hamburger Helper)

[Magic]

If Trump wins I'll buy the 'Make America Great Again' caps for myself and Pepe and I'll ship one to Lewis. Bants.

Surely it'll need to be 'Making America Great Again'?

[Pepe]

:cool:

[Bartholomert]

The "hidden" non-college educated White vote will determine who wins this election:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/10/31/hidden-white-working-class-voters/

[Magic]

The LiveLeak comments section posters, basically.

[Jimmy Floyd]

So far this has had almost an exact correlation with the EU referendum in every respect, so enjoy that, America.

I wonder how much Trump would be beating Bernie 'the Colonel' Sanders by. A lot, probably.

[Pepe]

:harold:

[Pepe]

The hidden white apologist vote would propel Bernie to a massive landslide victory.

[7om]

Surely Sanders would win? Hilary seems to be winning by default rather than anyone liking her. Old man Sanders would walk this, I reckon.

[Magic]

The hidden white apologist vote would propel Bernie to a massive landslide victory.

What? Only doomed, Islamic by 2050 Europe holds such vast numbers of them.

[Lewis]

If Trump wins I'll buy the 'Make America Great Again' caps for myself and Pepe and I'll ship one to Lewis. Bants.

If you could do that anyway, I'll pay you back when I get a job (*snigger*).

[Pepe]

Can't order them online?

Some lad was selling 'Fuck Trump' tshirts on the street this weekend.

[phonics]

I think the entire FOX team have got coked up to their eyeballs for this

796096978304335872

[Lewis]

Can't order them online?

Some lad was selling 'Fuck Trump' tshirts on the street this weekend.

I want one with the smell of freedom still on it.

[7om]

If you could do that anyway, I'll pay you back when I get a job (*snigger*).

PM me your address. I really want one now that I've come to terms with it.

[phonics]

"These elite establishment types don't understand what's going on"

"Have you seen this clipping from Brookings on what's really going on?"

[GS]

Trump winning would be hilarious for about ten minutes, then terrifying for the next four years. Do not want.

[Jimmy Floyd]

More than terrifying, it would be fucking boring with everyone whingeing on about everything he does. Although I suppose it would divert their attention from whingeing about everything Liam Fox does. Phonics would have to set up a bot to make smug posts about one of the two whilst he concentrated on the other.

[Kikó]

Brillo is terrifying in HD. Has he stopped dying his eyebrows?

[Bernanke]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwxZfbMW8AUkn36.jpg

It's over. He can't win without Flo Rida.

[Yevrah]

Is that how states are being announced now? Through a fucking shitter account?

[Lewis]

That's the oldest thing you've ever posted.

[Yevrah]

Probably. I can't really tell for sure what's going on there.

It's incomprehensible gibberish.

'@real' '#' 'Flo Rida'

It's the visual representation of a headache.

[Boydy]

Just go to bed, Yev.

[Boydy]

Igor's not coping well with the wait.

795724220567326720

[Yevrah]

No chance, I want to taste your tears at 2am Boyd.

[Boydy]

I won't be crying. :cab:

[Lewis]

796133578576957440

That is so good.

[mugbull]

Somebodys shooting up a polling station in California. Thanks Obama

[Bartholomert]

Frank Luntz calling it for Hillary already. Oh well, much ado about nothing it seems.

[ItalAussie]

Frank Luntz calling it for Hillary already. Oh well, much ado about nothing it seems.

Woah. Last I saw he was suggesting that Michigan could be worth watching.

What a change a couple of hours can make. Still plenty more hours yet though. That said, if they can call Florida or North Carolina early for the Democrats, then all the Brits will be able to get an early night.


EDIT: Although it sounds like the Democrats in North Carolina are running into turnout issues due to restrictions and polling place closings, which is a bit of an embarrassment to democracy.

[Lewis]

Rand Paul is projected to win his whatever it is. Pepe. :cool:

[ItalAussie]

It's crazy to me that they're starting to call states while people can still vote in other states. Not quite the affront to basic democracy that is weekday voting, but still a bit crazy.

Last time around, most places called the election minutes after polls in the west closed, and even waiting for that was basically just out of politeness. Alaska still had an hour of voting to go. :D

[Bartholomert]

Woah. Last I saw he was suggesting that Michigan could be worth watching.

What a change a couple of hours can make. Still plenty more hours yet though. That said, if they can call Florida or North Carolina early for the Democrats, then all the Brits will be able to get an early night.


EDIT: Although it sounds like the Democrats in North Carolina are running into turnout issues due to restrictions and polling place closings, which is a bit of an embarrassment to democracy.

He might edge NC (more likely) and/or FL (less likely) and will probably take OH and IA but that means that there are issues with turnout / demographics in the exit polls will hold back that extra state even in a best case scenario.

Demographically (and politically) it seems like America is trending towards just becoming another Brazil. Maybe we'll be better at soccer in the future.

[Bartholomert]

To what extent do we Americans live in a democracy where individual citizens make objective decisions on policy, versus a fractured tribal nation where racial interest groups vote as blocks to maximize the amount of resources which are distributed to their community?

[Yevrah]

49% to 48% in favour of Clinton in Florida, after 3m votes counted. Could be as much as 1.9% or as little as 0.1% in that mind.

[Boydy]

BBC just had Peter Griffin on.

[Browning]

49% to 48% in favour of Clinton in Florida, after 3m votes counted. Could be as much as 1.9% or as little as 0.1% in that mind.

Swung the other way after 5m, but they still seem fairly sure Clinton is going to take it.

Doubt I'll last much longer tonight though, hopefully something interesting happens soon.

[ItalAussie]

To what extent do we Americans live in a democracy where individual citizens make objective decisions on policy, versus a fractured tribal nation where racial interest groups vote as blocks to maximize the amount of resources which are distributed to their community?

The Republican ticket this time around basically ran on a "we don't talk about policy" policy. And when Trump did talk about policy (such as the tax plan), the details were wildly varying. I think that did hurt him a little, but not as much as it would in a lot of other places. His voter base really isn't interested in policy details, beyond four words that can fit on a hat.

(One economics journalist gave a blow-by-blow review of the Trump tax plan's many twists and turns. It's a bit of an adventure: https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/796066951802064900)


EDIT: This isn't even a slam. People vote for all kinds of reasons beyond policy, and that's never going to change. It's a slight concern to see politicians embrace that though. Although the truth is that we kind of know what we want from the candidates. A vote for Clinton is more of the status quo. A vote for Trump is a vote to disrupt the system, without any real detail beyond that.

[ItalAussie]

I didn't realise that they count votes in-state before polling is closed. They've been counting in Florida for ages, and the votes don't close until the top of this hour.

I swear, the US is what you get when aliens watch democracy and try to implement it without actually understanding it.

[Lewis]

To what extent do we Americans live in a democracy where individual citizens make objective decisions on policy, versus a fractured tribal nation where racial interest groups vote as blocks to maximize the amount of resources which are distributed to their community?


The disruption of the homogeneous 'we', which forms the essential basis of parliamentary democracy and therefore of our liberties, is now approaching the point at which the political mechanics of a 'divided community' (if I may borrow terminology from jargon devised to describe the Ulster scene) take charge and begin to operate autonomously. Let me illustrate this pathology of a society that is being eaten alive; for this is a branch of medicine where the clinical material is abundant and the symptoms richly documented.

The two active ingredients are grievance and violence. Where a community is divided, grievance is for practical purposes inexhaustible. When violence is injected - and quite a little will suffice for a start - there begins an escalating competition to discover grievance and to remove it. The materials lie ready to hand in a multiplicity of agencies with a vested interest, more or less benevolent, in the process of discovering grievances and demanding their removal. The spiral is easily maintained in upward movement by the repetitions and escalation of violence. At each stage alienation between the various elements of society is increased, and the constant disappointment that the imagined remedies yield a reverse result leads to growing bitterness and despair. Hand in hand with the exploitation of grievance goes the equally counterproductive process which will no doubt, as usual, be called the 'search for a political solution'. The electoral distribution in England of the unassimilated populations affords exceptionally favourable circumstances for this process. Indeed, attention has already been drawn publicly to the potentially critical factor of the so-called immigrant vote in an increasing number of worthwhile constituencies. The result is that the political parties of the indigenous population vie with one another for votes by promising remedy of the grievances which are being uncovered and exploited in the context of actual or threatened violence. Thus the legislature finds itself in effect manipulated by minorities instead of responding to majorities, and is watched by the public at large with a bewildering and frustration, not to say cynicism, of which the experience of legislation hitherto in the field of immigration and race relations afford some pale idea.

The next stage is reached when the wedge-effect is transferred from the electorate to the legislature itself. For 5 per cent of the total population, a proportion probably reached already but in any case not far off, the quota of Members of Parliament, if once the notion of quota is accepted, would be some 32 Members... A lower representation than this of the 'coloured' or 'black' population - it tends increasingly to be brought under one single classification in order to enhance its leverage - would presently be regarded as an evidence of deliberate discrimination which must be counteracted, if necessary artificially. I need not follow the analysis further in order to demonstrate how parliamentary democracy disintegrates when the national homogeneity of the electorate is broken by a large and sharp alteration in the composition of the population. While the institutions and liberties on which British liberty depends are being progressively surrendered to the European superstate, the forces which will sap and destroy them from within are allowed to accumulate unchecked. And all the time we are invited to direct towards Angola or Siberia the anxious attention that the real danger within our power and our borders imperatively demand.

Enoch Powell, April, 1976. :cool:

[randomlegend]

I swear, the US is what you get when aliens watch democracy and try to implement it without actually understanding it.

:D

That really sums up America on a lot of things, to be honest.

[elth]

Nothing in any of the exit polls or first results to suggest that there's a polling error. Clinton still a 2 to 1 favourite.

Republicans looking good in the Senate.

[Vim]

Clinton leading in FL is key. Surely Trump can't win if he doesn't take that state.

[elth]

He "can" but it requires some pretty unlikely and inconsistent results elsewhere.

[ItalAussie]

A lot of the obvious states are getting called now.

Senate's going to be tight, and there's some suggestion of a potential Democratic upset in Missouri which could be critical.

[Smiffy]

.....

[John]

Some Texan wally has been arrested for trying to vote twice. Said he worked for Trump and was testing the system. I can't decide if it'd be more lol for that to be true, or for that to be a story someone thought would get them away with it. It's like getting caught shoplifting and claiming to be the secret shopper.

[Yevrah]

That Florida gap. Jesus.

[7om]

This guy is a nutcase.

[John]

Florida Latinos absolutely fucking Trump up the arse. I'm sure Mert has said loads of times that Trump was polling much better than Romney did with Latinos, but he's losing them by ten points more than Romney in Florida at the moment.

[Yevrah]

Am I the only one who finds the constant racial and gender profiling slightly troubling?

[Spoonsky]

I've repeatedly asked my friend to get me one of those red hats, but he keeps letting me down and claiming he's busy with his divorce. More like you don't want your pussy liberal mates seeing you with one, you fat mess.

Is he really getting divorced? :D

[Lewis]

Is he really getting divorced? :D

Once his residency (or whatever it is) is sorted, and they have the money to do it. In the meantime, they're stuck until at least February when their housing contract runs out, barely speaking to each other and living in separate rooms.

[Boydy]

How long did that last?

[Yevrah]

Trump ahead in Florida with over 90% of the vote in.

[Dark Soldier]

itshappening.gif

[Boydy]

Trump ahead in Florida with over 90% of the vote in.

Where are you seeing that? BBC says 74% of the vote counted there.

[elth]

Turns out he won the panhandle by more than Clinton won Latinos.

No change in expectations at this stage. Florida was predicted to be 50/50.

[Yevrah]

Where are you seeing that? BBC says 74% of the vote counted there.

Brillo reported it and the Republican campaign guy said the same thing. All on the Beeb's tv coverage.

[Spoonsky]

#thanksbruhdinho

[Yevrah]

Turns out he won the panhandle by more than Clinton won Latinos.

No change in expectations at this stage. Florida was predicted to be 50/50.

Surely if Trump wins it that's a change from 50/50, no?

In fact, what use is a 50/50 prediction?

[Lewis]

How long did that last?

It was pretty much exactly two years before he started telling me he was miserable, but he denied it was her for a few months, signed a twelve month housing contract to try forcing them to get things back on track (as you do), and then it blew up within about a month of doing that; but it's obviously in both of their interests to spin it out for long enough to keep him in the country, so it's just rumbling on, dead on its feet.

[elth]

Virginia is a big worry for Dems. Trump up 5%, albeit with the most Democratic parts of the state not yet reported. But she should win it comfortably if she's going to win the election.

[7om]

So Trump has crushed Florida. If he takes Ohio / Pennsylvania I'm jumping straight on Twitter to join in the meltdown.

[Yevrah]

The echos of the referendum vote here are uncanny.

[elth]

The point is that if Trump won by 10% there would be a clear polling error underestimating his support, making him much more likely to win elsewhere. The polls predicting 50/50 and the result being 50/50 shows that there's no systemic error at this stage, so Clinton should still be ahead overall.

Florida is much more important to Trump than Clinton - if she won it, the election would essentially be over. If she loses, she is still favourite in a close race.

[Lewis]

The echos of the referendum vote here are uncanny.

If he pulls it off there would be a strong case for forcibly retiring every pollster, pundit, campaigner, and political scientist until they prove their credibility.

[elth]

He had a 33% chance according to 538, it's not like this was a landslide.

[Yevrah]

Betfair odds:

Clinton 1.2
Trump 5.2

[Queenslander]

Yeah it's over all hail President Clinton.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Boydy]

I put £20 on earlier at 5.7. That was around 6pm. It was out at 12 at one point. On the Exchange, that is. Was tempted to put another tenner on. Should have.

[Lewis]

538 is a dickhead. FACT.

[Boydy]

Right now:
Clinton 1.36
Trump 3.8

[Smiffy]

.....

[John]

Trump is half way there. According to the Guardian graphic I'm looking at Texas have called their result under a minute after the polls closed. How the fuck can that be?

[Lewis]

Aren't we past that point already?

We are, but none of them have realised.

[elth]

Trump is half way there. According to the Guardian graphic I'm looking at Texas have called their result under a minute after the polls closed. How the fuck can that be?

Electronic voting.

[Lewis]

Why doesn't Andrew Neil just shave his fucking head? His hot wife must hate balds.

[Yevrah]

Trump just dipped under 3. It's narrowing all the time.

[-james-]

http://i.imgur.com/Kr0VAKR.png

[Boydy]

Trump just dipped under 3. It's narrowing all the time.

Yeah. Why did I not stick another tenner on when he went out to 12? :(

[Yevrah]

Yeah. Why did I not stick another tenner on when he went out to 12? :(

I'm still kicking myself that I didn't get on Brexit when it was 14/1.

[Boydy]

I'm still kicking myself that I didn't get on Brexit when it was 14/1.

Same. And it's happening all over again.

[Bartholomert]

Fox just said 85% Trump wins Florida.

Dear God is this what it feels like when it's happening?

[John]

Donald Trump is ahead in Virginia - that is surprising, and for Democrats a worrying sign. Polls had forecast that Clinton would win the state by a comfortable 5 point margin. On top of the states Republicans can safely consider in the bag, Virginia, plus Florida and North Carolina (where Trump is also ahead), would put him on course to win 209 electoral college votes. If he can add to those results with Georgia, Ohio, Arizona, South Carolina, Iowa and Nevada (all states where he was forecast to win), he can become the next US president.

That could be the major systemic error Elth was looking for.

[elth]

Clinton underperforming with women in Florida, but hitting or beating her projections in other key states. Still right where it was predicted to be.

[7om]

Trump just dipped under 3. It's narrowing all the time.

Who are you rooting for, Yev?

[Smiffy]

.....

[Yevrah]

Same. And it's happening all over again.

It is indeed. Betfair is following the exact same pattern it did on the referendum night, with conventional wisdom keeping the favourite ahead, in the face of reality. The BBC's narrative is following the exact same pattern as well.

If I'd mortgaged my future by going balls deep on the savings I could have gone from potentially dying at my desk in my 70s at the start of the year to retiring at the end of it.

Oh and the final nail is the markets soared apparently, exactly as happened in Brexit. City wankers really have no fucking clue.

[Vim]

I've been watching Fox News coverage and honestly it's much less of a shit show than I thought it'd be on reputation. It's actually decent to watch so far imo.

[Boydy]

Clinton 1.91
Trump 2.1

Fucking hell.

[Yevrah]

Who are you rooting for, Yev?

I struggle to care. Clinton is a patsy in a woman'swear suit and while Trump is technically a moron I struggle to see how he'll do as much damage as has been predicted.

The seethe and outright racism towards Americans when he wins will provide some lols I suppose.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Yevrah]

Trump goes favourite.

Where's the fork?

[Pepe]

Rand Paul is projected to win his whatever it is. Pepe. :cool:

Fuck yeah. :

#Rand2020 :cool:

[Yevrah]

Trump 1.96
Clinton 2.02

[Smiffy]

.....

[elth]

The New York Times predictor was sitting at Clinton 85-88% all night. It's just swung down to Clinton 58%. Those clowns have been wrong about how close this is all year, and still had the cheek to criticise other aggregate models that were giving Trump a higher chance.

Bunch of charlatans.

[Boydy]

Trump 1.96
Clinton 2.02

I missed that. He's drifting out again now.

[John]

796171852645355522

Just wonderful.

[Yevrah]

Massive swing back to Clinton.

Has something happened that the BBC haven't reported yet?

[Boydy]

I'm gonna make some coffee. Gonna need it.

[ItalAussie]

If Clinton doesn't flip Virginia, you may as well all go to bed. :cab:

[Yevrah]

The New York Times predictor was sitting at Clinton 85-88% all night. It's just swung down to Clinton 58%. Those clowns have been wrong about how close this is all year, and still had the cheek to criticise other aggregate models that were giving Trump a higher chance.

Bunch of charlatans.

Much like our economist friends, they just can't predict the future. Which wouldn't be so bad if what they do predict was shrouded in a bit of deference, rather than drowned in hubris.

[Pepe]

If he pulls it off there would be a strong case for forcibly retiring every pollster, pundit, campaigner, and political scientist

Lets do that even if he doesn't pull it off.

[elth]

Michigan is going to be cloooooose.

Virginia too, but Clinton's only down a point with 20% to count.

[Yevrah]

If Clinton doesn't flip Virginia, you may as well all go to bed. :cab:

If that doesn't happen are you worried about what the world will look like tomorrow?

[Lewis]

Bagsy sucking Mert's cock last.

[Smiffy]

.....

[elth]

Were I a gambling man I'd probably have stuck a tenner on Clinton at evens tbh. She still hasn't lost a state she needs.

[bruhnaldo]

someone said Trump was at +500 on 5dimes and is now down to +120

[Pepe]

Polls. :harold:

I'll claim e-victory on that one. They are a media-narrative device and nothing more.

[ItalAussie]

If that doesn't happen are you worried about what the world will look like tomorrow?

I'd be a bit concerned for the US, and my friends who live there. It won't affect me too much on a personal level. My future is in Australia, to be honest.

Watching foreign politics is a bit like watching sport, really. You pick your team, but it's not going to affect you in the end. :D

[Yevrah]

Were I a gambling man I'd probably have stuck a tenner on Clinton at evens tbh. She still hasn't lost a state she needs.

Has Trump either? At this stage, surely it's the momentum and lack of predicted winning margin (for Clinton) at this stage that's more telling.

[Spoonsky]

However this turns out, the country is broken and with luck I won't have to live here for about a decade.

[ItalAussie]

Late campaigning in Michigan by the Republicans might turn out to have been a masterstroke.

[elth]

Has Trump either? At this stage, surely it's the momentum and lack of predicted winning margin (for Clinton) at this stage that's more telling.

No, but if Trump doesn't outperform his predictions, he loses. Right now both are more or less getting what they were predicted to.

[Yevrah]

Late campaigning in Michigan by the Republicans might turn out to have been a masterstroke.

On campaign strategy, I don't know what Bill's popularity is like these days, but was it really wise for Hilary to drag a liar and a sex pest around with her on the campaign trail?

[Smiffy]

.....

[Yevrah]

No, but if Trump doesn't outperform his predictions, he loses. Right now both are more or less getting what they were predicted to.

Are they? The BBC are saying that Trump's performed much better than was expected.

[elth]

Paul Krugman is having a Twitter meltdown as he slowly realises most Americans aren't Ivy League elites, so silver linings and that.

[Yevrah]

Trump 1.9
Clinton 2.2

Biggest gap of the night so far.

[elth]

Are they? The BBC are saying that Trump's performed much better than was expected.

That's because they weren't paying enough attention and believed the crap about Clinton winning by 4-5%. She's 2.5% ahead, right on her projections.

[ItalAussie]

It's worth remembering that on live sporting events, fast-changing odds often overshoot the "actual" value. This isn't a sporting event, but with the odds changing so fast, it might be in play.

[Yevrah]

That's because they weren't paying enough attention and believed the crap about Clinton winning by 4-5%. She's 2.5% ahead, right on her projections.

What's the breakdown of the 2.5%?

[elth]

What's the breakdown of the 2.5%?

Not sure what you mean by that?

[Yevrah]

Not sure what you mean by that?

You said she's 2.5% ahead still. Based on what?

[ItalAussie]

It does look like Clinton should hold Virginia by a much narrower margin than she'd hope. It might just come down to New Hampshire.

(Assuming that Michigan doesn't shock everyone, which is a long way from out of the question)

[elth]

One thing to remember with the close states is the rural booths are smaller, and are therefore faster to count and report. Clinton will come from behind in some states as urban votes are added to the tally.

She's 5k behind in Virginia with 14% to count, all of it urban. No guarantees but she should win it.

[-james-]

It's worth remembering that on live sporting events, fast-changing odds often overshoot the "actual" value. This isn't a sporting event, but with the odds changing so fast, it might be in play.

Arbitrage is a big part of it as well. I definitely think Trump stayed at higher than his actual odds for a while because of people greening/bookies laying off.

[elth]

You said she's 2.5% ahead still. Based on what?

Based on her having won 2.5% more of the currently counted and reported votes than Trump.

[Spoonsky]

If this goes to a recount in Florida...

[Vim]

They haven't shown any numbers about third parties, there's no way Johnson gets the 5% right? Is he even going to get 3%?

[-james-]

Mike Pence in to 350 from 1000. :rosebud:

[ItalAussie]

Arbitrage is a big part of it as well. I definitely think Trump stayed at higher than his actual odds for a while because of people greening/bookies laying off.

The kind of people who vote on political elections are probably looking for arbitrage opportunity, as well.

[ItalAussie]

If this goes to a recount in Florida...

:D

If it does go to a recount, I suspect there will be states closer to the mix. Pennsylvania would be my pick.

[Spoonsky]

Mike Pence in to 350 from 1000. :rosebud:

Worth a tenner honestly.

[-james-]

The kind of people who vote on political elections are probably looking for arbitrage opportunity, as well.

That was my plan, but he shortened a lot quicker than I expected and now I think I'm in for the ride.

[Yevrah]

Based on her having won 2.5% more of the currently counted and reported votes than Trump.

Appreciate I'm labouring this, but isn't Trump 1m votes (2.0%) ahead in the popular vote?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016/results

[Yevrah]

The kind of people who vote on political elections are probably looking for arbitrage opportunity, as well.

Oh there's no doubt loads of that bollocks going on, but his odds are shortening all the time. He's now well into odds on at 1.7 vs. 2.5 to Clinton.

[elth]

Appreciate I'm labouring this, but isn't Trump 1m votes (2.0%) ahead in the popular vote?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016/results

Don't know, I'm going off the NYT live update. Not sure where the BBC are getting their figures from.

[Boydy]

The woman on the right of that BBC panel. :drool:

[Vim]

Virginia to Clinton according to Fox. It was meant to be Clinton's all the way, would have been a great sign for Trump if he'd won it.

[elth]

Just as if Clinton won Florida it was over for Trump, if Trump wins Michigan it's over for Clinton. Severely underrated and under polled state.

[ItalAussie]

Appreciate I'm labouring this, but isn't Trump 1m votes (2.0%) ahead in the popular vote?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016/results

The big source of popular vote in the west is California which Clinton will win easily.

[elth]

Clinton's projected popular vote margin under 2% now, which isn't enough given her failure in the swing states.

[ItalAussie]

Markets are tanking. :cab:

I reckon Trump's got this, and it'll go down in Michigan. It's certainly not going to be boring.

[Yevrah]

Clinton's projected popular vote margin under 2% now, which isn't enough given her failure in the swing states.

As you typed that...

Trump 1.3
Clinton 4.0

[elth]

Clinton still a slight favourite in Michigan, but the voter model there has got it completely wrong. Much much higher rural turnout than anticipated.

[Yevrah]

Markets are tanking. :cab:

I reckon Trump's got this, and it'll go down in Michigan. It's certainly not going to be boring.

It's a good job our politicians haven't spent the last two years calling him and an idiot and a cunt...

[ItalAussie]

As you typed that...

Trump 1.3
Clinton 4.0

I reckon that's a bit of an overcorrection. It's still close. I'd have Clinton at 2.5.

She's getting everything she needs in the west by the looks of things, so it's going to come down to New Hampshire/Pennsylvania/Michigan. Possibly Wisconsin and Minnesota, which nobody is talking about yet, but probably ought to be, given the high rural voter turnout.

[Boydy]

Some people in work laughed at me when I said I was taking today/tomorrow off so I could stay up all night watching this but there's nothing quite like the excitement of an election night.

[Lewis]

The concession/victory speeches will be the funniest things in world history.

[7om]

Why are those sad plebs crying at 'Clinton HQ'?

[ItalAussie]

Why are those sad plebs crying at 'Clinton HQ'?

In fairness, if they're there, they've probably invested a serious amount of time and effort in the leadup to the election. That's got to feel like a hell of a waste if you lose.

It'd be a bit lame if you're crying on your couch at home, but if you put in that much, you're pretty involved.

[Yevrah]

That purple woman on the Beeb was the definition of delusional.

[Lewis]

They will be bealing because, rather than mourning their wasted afternoons, they will have genuinely convinced themselves that this is 1933.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Bartholomert]

So can we accept that the polls are run by a bunch of liberal hacks at this stage?

[ItalAussie]

So, 2016. What a shit year. :D

[Yevrah]

So can we accept that the polls are run by a bunch of liberal hacks at this stage?

It's a shame you bottled it earlier tonight mert. Stick to your guns lad.

[ItalAussie]

So can we accept that the polls are run by a bunch of liberal hacks at this stage?

I doubt it was deliberate underpolling of rural voters.

They pretty much imploded their business model, which they can't have been trying to do. Being as they'd like to have jobs tomorrow.

[Bartholomert]

If Clinton doesn't flip Virginia, you may as well all go to bed. :cab:

For what it's worth most of the Virginians I know (who are generally moderate to center-left) voted Trump, and told me that there was very little turnout (in deep blue Northern Virginia). It could happen.

[Dark Soldier]

Look how beautiful it looks:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

Burn it all down :drool:

[7om]

So, 2016. What a shit year. :D

If by shit you mean great, then I wholeheartedly agree.

[ItalAussie]

If by shit you mean great, then I wholeheartedly agree.

It's actually been really good for me on a personal level. :D

Apparently my life fortunes inversely correlate with celebrity misfortunes.

[Yevrah]

Ohio's gone.

[John Arne]

Yev - the Beeb seem to be well behind on everything. Both Sky News and CNN are live streaming in YouTube if you fancy more upto date info, albeit presenting by way of flying holograms sponsored by Geiko.

[Yevrah]

Cheers John, I'll stick to Brillo though.

[ItalAussie]

God, we're going to have to listen to more of his stilted speeches. Bigly's going to become an actual thing.

As long as someone gets it into his head that nukes are a bad, bad thing, it won't do too much damage in the big scheme of things. Not for the rest of us, anyway.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Bartholomert]

I'm going to black out.

Thank you God.

[ItalAussie]

It's weird to me that it takes them so long to count New Hampshire. They've done 99% of Florida already, and New Hampshire is smaller and closes earlier.

[7om]

I can tolerate a lot of the 'lol murica' stuff but the religious nuts still look mental however hard I try.

[Boydy]

Maybe he'll have the FBI storm in to arrest Hillary when she's giving her concession speech.

[Dark Soldier]

http://i.imgur.com/N12KXRC.png

:rave:

[Vim]

83% chance according to NYT. :drool:

Don't bottle this now.

[ItalAussie]

Michigan's tightening, because of course it is.

[7om]

Lewis, our hats have been ordered :cool:

[ItalAussie]

They've counted most of Milwaukee and Clinton's still behind in Wisconsin. That'll do it, I reckon.

I imagine the lesson that'll get taken from this election is that years of obvious corporate influence leads to massive disaffection in the places that have to eat it when jobs get moved elsewhere. Same thing that was probably in play with Brexit, I'd guess.

[Lewis]

Lewis, our hats have been ordered :cool:

796190038786772992

:cool:

[Lewis]

Who is going to Facebook/text Spoonsky a 'u okay hun?'

[elth]

I wonder what all those rural voters will do when Trump doesn't bring any jobs back.

I also wonder if Democrats will actually learn anything from this at all.

[Vim]

796190038786772992

:cool:

That's amazing. :D

It's been months and I still can't believe that he retweeted a pepe himself.

[Lewis]

I wonder what all those rural voters will do when Trump doesn't bring any jobs back.

I also wonder if Democrats will actually learn anything from this at all.

Next time, get more celebrities involved.

[ItalAussie]

I wonder what all those rural voters will do when Trump doesn't bring any jobs back.

I also wonder if Democrats will actually learn anything from this at all.

It's easy to say things in retrospect, but the way Jeb! tanked should probably have set off some alarm bells somewhere, in terms of establishment candidates.

[ItalAussie]

I wonder if we're going to get a realignment out of this. Midwest turning solid red, possibly as a trade for some of the more racially-diverse southern states next go around.

[Vim]

Someone get me a live stream of John Oliver's face.

[Yevrah]

The protest vote line being wheeled out again. It's starting. :drool:

[elth]

Depends how solidly the Midwest sticks with Trump if nothing improves I think.

[Pepe]

Facebook already flaring up. :drool:

[John]

Is Trump winning Florida as massive as I think it is? He's basically over the line at this point.

[Yevrah]

He's won/going to win, that much is pretty clear.

[elth]

Is Trump winning Florida as massive as I think it is? He's basically over the line at this point.

Not really. Him probably winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is what's going to give him the election. Florida isn't really relevant, except in that it confirmed a Clinton rout definitely wasn't on.

[Mellberg]

Basically means Clinton can't afford any more lost ground in blue/swing states in which she's favoured if I'm understanding this right. Which if the rest of the results are anything to go by leaves her fucked.

[elth]

Senate is basically done, Republicans will keep control even if Trump does lose.

[Boydy]

http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

Michael Moore, a few months back, on why Trump would win. Quite a good read.


And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

[Spoonsky]

Who is going to Facebook/text Spoonsky a 'u okay hun?'

Bernie would have walked this. Gonna go kill myself I guess.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Jesus Christ they've actually voted him in :D

What a great year for the liberal elite.

[Spoonsky]

(Not really, before you call the police.)

[Pepe]

Aren't you leaving in like six months?

TTH France meet 2018. :cool:

[Vim]

So he's definitely flipped Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada?

[ItalAussie]

Florida was always a stretch goal for Clinton.

Her "path to victory" was going to be what she'll win, in addition to Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire (she might get two or more of them - looks like four is off the table unless something sensational happens). States with large populations of disaffected poor white rural voters who (rightly in part) blame the establishment for their decline in fortunes.

Trump is a disruption candidate, although I find it hard to believe he'll actually improve their lot in any way.

[John Arne]

This women on Sky keeps brining it back to fighting against 200 years of men.... it's a WOMEN!!!... Fuck off.

[John]

He's won/going to win, that much is pretty clear.

I'm not sure. California is 55 guaranteed votes for Clinton, and there are a couple of other safe votes still to come in. There's very little margin for error, but she could still do it.

[elth]

Clinton's probably done in Wisconsin, so her only realistic path left is basically holding on in Pennsylvania, coming from behind in Michigan and flipping Arizona.

It's over.

[Lewis]

First WWE Hall of Famer to become President. :cool:

[Spoonsky]

Aren't you leaving in like six months?

TTH France meet 2018. :cool:

In January I'm going abroad for six months; in respect to that this is probably the worst thing that could have possibly happened. :face:

Beyond that I should be in Canada for his entire term minus summer vacations. Silver linings, right.

[John Arne]

ALL HAIL MERT... TRUMP IS PRESIDENT.

https://gyazo.com/0d1aeeb11075cfd84503f9dac59749f3.png

[7om]

The spectacled geezer on the BBC is trying so hard to convince himself this won't happen.

[Yevrah]

I'm not sure. California is 55 guaranteed votes for Clinton, and there are a couple of other safe votes still to come in. There's very little margin for error, but she could still do it.

He's won, I'm sure.

[Pepe]

How long until this shit is over?

[Mellberg]

Touching on elth's PATH TO VICTORY, Arizona has gone Republican every election since 1952, bar one.

For a Mr Bill Clinton. Clutching straws?

[Vim]

Tempted to be a petty twat and write to the guy who straight up called me a racist for defending Trump a few months ago in Denmark.

[John Arne]

Tempted to be a petty twat and write to the guy who straight up called me a racist for defending Trump a few months ago in Denmark.

Trump winning the election doesn't make any of his previous racist or misogynistic shit any less despicable.

[Pepe]

In January I'm going abroad for six months; in respect to that this is probably the worst thing that could have possibly happened. :face:

Beyond that I should be in Canada for his entire term minus summer vacations. Silver linings, right.

Meh, won't be any worse than under Bush. Plus it's not like we're the kind of people that will get fucked anyway.

[Pepe]

Will he follow through and put her in jail? What are the polls saying?

[elth]

Pro marijuana measures are passing all over the shop, so at least Democrats in a lot of places can spend the next four years blazed.

[Lewis]

Her 'path to victory' was him being a complete and utter berk. Let's not all row back on it now. This was supposed to be a fucking walkover.

[ItalAussie]

On the list of things I thought I'd never say, this is right up there: Man, I hope mert was right. :D

Specifically, the bit about sensible Republicans handling Trump behind the scenes to make sure he doesn't do anything too outlandish.

[Pepe]

This was supposed to be a fucking walkover.

True. So glad I was wrong on this one. :D

That concession speech will be glorious.

[Yevrah]

On the list of things I thought I'd never say, this is right up there: Man, I hope mert was right. :D

Specifically, the bit about sensible Republicans handling Trump behind the scenes to make sure he doesn't do anything too outlandish.

I'd suspect mert is right - There's no way he's going to be allowed to get his bucket a spade out and start building a wall with one hand, while flicking the clit of the warheads launch button in the other.

And to flip it, I remember how wonderful everyone thought it was in 1997 when Blair/New Labour came in and look how that turned out.

[Offshore Toon]

The best part about all this is that Hillary will now view her life as a failure. She probably only stayed with Bill to climb the political ladder. Useless, lying bint.

[Gray Fox]

I've just tuned in now and seen Clinton is ahead but for some reason Trump is big favourite.

While I catch up, is this the American version of Brexit?

[Spoonsky]

I'd suspect mert is right - There's no way he's going to be allowed to get his bucket a spade out and start building a wall with one hand, while flicking the clit of the warheads launch button in the other.

There's no way that Donald Trump is winning the general election. We've been through the looking glass for a long, long time.

[Yevrah]

There's no way that Donald Trump is winning the general election. We've been through the looking glass for a long, long time.

I didn't ever say there was no way he'd win.

[Offshore Toon]

That fucking hat. :D Of course he's from Texas.

[elth]

I've just tuned in now and seen Clinton is ahead but for some reason Trump is big favourite.

While I catch up, is this the American version of Brexit?

Similar. Pollsters clearly underestimated the rage and commitment of rural and suburban voters to make clear their dissatisfaction with the status quo.

[Yevrah]

I might have to buy one of those hats.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What I can't get my head around is that instead of trying to receive the message they're being sent, the 'winners from globalisation' as I call them stick their fingers in their ears and call people stupid for defying them.

[Spoonsky]

I didn't ever say there was no way he'd win.

What I'm saying is that we're so far into an alternate reality that you really can't make any assumptions anymore about politics in this country.

[Queenslander]

Channel 9 here has it Clinton 197 Trump 187

[Offshore Toon]

And now they're chanting "USA! USA!" What a crap country, but I'm really looking forward to the next four years.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Channel 9 here has it Clinton 197 Trump 187

Are Slats and Tubby hosting the coverage?

[John]

Canada's immigration website has crashed. :D

[Bartholomert]

I told y'all. God bless America. I am drunk, fuck the pussy cuck liberals in your fucking sanctimonious smug faces.

[Vim]

Let's see now if all the celebrities who promised they'd leave actually do so.

[Yevrah]

What I'm saying is that we're so far into an alternate reality that you really can't make any assumptions anymore about politics in this country.

Mike Novak will try to convince him that launching warheads is a bad idea and if that doesn't work (it will) Jack Bauer will take one for the team and shoot him in the face.

I mean, seriously, does anyone genuinely think this will lead to Armageddon? He'll bumble through the next four years, realising that being president is actually a bit of a pain in the arse and that he can't really change much, before the Democrats get their house in order and put someone up against him next time who's a bit better than a fishwife.

[elth]

Michigan likely to fall back onto Clinton's side in the next half hour or so.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still big trouble.

[Mellberg]

Yevbet:

Trump - 1.05

[ItalAussie]

What I can't get my head around is that instead of trying to receive the message they're being sent, the 'winners from globalisation' as I call them stick their fingers in their ears and call people stupid for defying them.

It reminds me of an anecdote I read a while back from a pollster. They mentioned that whenever they were asked to do polling for political groups of either stripe, the questions were never "what are the concerns of the people we're talking to?", and always "what can we use to bring around the people we're talking to what we want them to think?".

I didn't think that much of the anecdote at the time, but it does kind of mesh up with the idea that people feel disenfranchised and like they aren't being listened to, which has to be the takeaway message from this election. Well, that and the US has a sentient cheeto as their President for the next four years, of course. :D

[Yevrah]

Where's the twitter seethe then? Surely the keyboard warriors on there aren't still in denial?

[Vim]

If Michigan goes to Clinton it could be problematic.

[ItalAussie]

I wonder if establishment Republicans will feel threatened by this result. They probably should, but they might not realise it yet.

I am also curious to see how Trump manages the evangelical voters. Freedoms, once given, are very hard to take back.

[Yevrah]

The 'white man' really is a bastard.

[7om]

I told y'all. God bless America. I am drunk, fuck the pussy cuck liberals in your fucking sanctimonious smug faces.

I bought a hat, mert, mate. I'll wear it out when it arrives and I'll probably get my head kicked in.

[Queenslander]

Are Slats and Tubby hosting the coverage?

:D

Close. Good old Carl "BANTS" Stefanovic!

[Spoonsky]

Obama would've walked this, btw. Term limits are bullshit.

[ItalAussie]

I told y'all. God bless America. I am drunk, fuck the pussy cuck liberals in your fucking sanctimonious smug faces.

Hate to say it, but you've probably earned that. :D