Putin On the Ritz

[Bam]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No need to sit down, but 🇷🇺-installed officials have announced the preliminary results of their “referendums” in occupied Ukraine:<br><br>- 97% in Kherson region <br><br>- 98% in Zaporizhzhia <br><br>- 98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”<br><br>- 98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”</p>&mdash; James Waterhouse (@JamWaterhouse) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1574760080259665922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Seems legit. :charm:

In other news, Putin seems to be trying to damage the nord streams.

[Lewis]

I would have tried to aim for about seventy per cent to add a bit of realism, so fair play.

[Ben]

It’s so they can conscript Ukrainians because the Russians back at home have told them to fuck off.

[niko_cee]

That seems like it would be a really bad idea, even by Russian standards.

[Ben]

Looks a possibility. Russian state media have also ran stories basically floating the idea they might mobilise POWs too, which is a massive no-no.

This is all from ISW by the way who only use open sources.

[Yevrah]

How the hell do you mobillise Prisoners of War? Good luck with that one.

We either need to down tools and take the role of mediators on, or intervene properly now. This has gone on long enough and needs stopping one way or another.

[Andrew]

Someone's gone and blown up the Nordstream 2 pipe line.

Didn't Biden say something about if Russia invaded Ukraine they would end the pipeline?

[Yevrah]

Yeah, enough is enough.

(Unless we're dealing with a false flag attack).

[Lewis]

It would be some serious 4D chess for Russia to have done it, seeing as they could just turn it off. Why wreck the pipeline, and why do it outside of their own territorial waters? If the Americans have done it then it's nice to know that they can unilaterally decide their supposed ally's energy policies for them.

[Yevrah]

Who's your money on?

[Lewis]

The only interested people that could do it are America, Russia, us, and probably Norway. America stands to benefit the most, and if Germany had any balls they would now remove themselves for all of this.

[Yevrah]

I'm not really sure what to compare it to in recent times, but blowing up pipelines sounds like properly serious shit.

[Andrew]

Those pipelines were Putin's leverage over Germany - which is pretty clearly the weakest NATO partner Ukraine has right now. By removing the pipelines, you remove Russia's leverage over Germany I guess.

If it was the Americans wouldn't they be the main benefactors of this because of the abundance of LNG from fracking they now have?

[Bam]

Or this is Putin attempting to keep the gas price high and Europe on its knees.

Probably his last throw of the dice.

[Bam]

Those pipelines were Putin's leverage over Germany

Only Stream1 feeds Germany, isn't it? Which has been pretty much turned off for weeks.

[niko_cee]

It's probably extinction rebellion. More chance them than the fucking yanks anyway.

lol at Lewis trying to get the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact band back together.

[Shindig]

Or y'know, could just be a leaky pipe.

[Bam]

Not sure if serious. :saywhat:

[Andrew]

Here’s the President of the United States saying that the US will stop NordStream 2 back at the start of the year https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=SSh5p2FJUo-bRwy6hX7bcA

Chairman of the EU-US delegation thanking the USA for the pipeline explosions…. https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915?s=46&t=SSh5p2FJUo-bRwy6hX7bcA

[Bernanke]

1574806340828028933

This is some strong Reuters headlining.

[Yevrah]

Too strong it seems, it's vanished.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I can see Russia blowing it up for internal reasons and to try and drive a wedge between the anglophones and Germany/Manny Mac.

America blowing it up would be pretty unsubtle even for them.

[Andrew]

Wouldn't surprise me if the last few years are anything to go by that it turns out Godzilla is to blame.

[Spikey M]

Well we've had plague, famine and war, so it must be about time for a mega monster.

Times must be pretty good for any doomsday cult leaders out there right now.

[Kikó]

Russian lines collapsing in Lyman.

1576179874296799232?t=ZMeu-E4AwPsaHnn4QLWbbg&s=19

[Don]

Russia's Lyman :cool:

[Ben]

By all accounts it’s looking like Putin is trying to freeze the war along current battle lines so they can regroup over the winter but even that isn’t holding. They’ve had to send Tatars to Kherson to bolster the defence but they’ve been historically marginalised by ethnic Russians so can’t imagine they’re all that motivated to defend the motherland. Russia is really unravelling in the last month or so.

[Kikó]

And it looks like it's fallen. Doubt anyone actually died though /Lewis

1576188496255254529?t=F3Mq5YeGHtrNBpaidgXFRg&s=19

[Manc]

It's all part of the plan.

[Lewis]

You need to follow a better mix of accounts. Russia counter-attacked yesterday to keep the road open, and they got most of them back. It's a loss for them, but they started pulling the plug once it became clear that Ukraine was pouring men in to disrupt the annexation festivities. As for Kherson, whoever is holding the line there has been having the time of their lives whack-a-moling the various Ukrainian wave attacks that have more than likely cost them more casualties than they admit to having suffered since February.

The interesting thing from now on is how the rules of engagement change. Reserves can free up better troops for more critical sectors, but the 'Special Military Operation' restricted a lot of stuff that would otherwise have made sense, like large scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Hoying something through the middle of this (https://www.google.com/maps/@50.5881755,30.5110024,1721m/data=!3m1!1e3) is one to watch.

[Kikó]

Send some twitter accounts over. Happy to balance my Ukraine biased reporting.

[Kikó]

Also big fan of the full swing into full on evangelical mentalism as seen here

1575869064349913089?t=6b3VXftc_lHFxfjhHSZVYA&s=19

[Ben]

Just follow ISW. Yeah they're American but they only use open source information. For example, they'll only comment on Ukraine liberating towns if Russian milbloggers confirm it or there's footage which can be geolocated and chronolocated. It's not really up for argument that Ukraine are making massive advances in the East, including Lyman. However, their ongoing self-imposed silence in the South probably tells you all you need to know about their success there at the moment.

[Don]

Russia's Lyman :cool:

I'm hearing Putin changed the papers after losing it so I stand corrected.

Edit: fake news.

[Bernanke]

1576602987132506113

So much for the Kherson direction being locked down with no successes for the Ukrainians.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeFDPwiWIAIz6-8?format=jpg&name=large

[Kikó]

You need better Russian sources.

[Spikey M]

Ukraine invading Russia is bang out of order.

[niko_cee]

Post #187 (https://www.thethirdhalf.co.uk/showthread.php?2988-Putin-On-the-Ritz&p=530423&viewfull=1#post530423) in the thread.

:cool:

[Spikey M]

Our very own Vince Cable. :cool:

[Lofty]

Blown up pipelines is the equivalent news cycle about 25 minutes into Threads.

[Lewis]

This would be a big defeat for Russia (the biggest one yet), so they ought to be doing something relatively urgently beyond the actual front, i.e. busting lots of infrastructure and what have you, otherwise the annexations were a bit pointless.

[Ben]

The annexation of Zaporizhzhia could be quite significant (even though they have no control of the capital but whatever) because they can claim ownership of the massive nuclear plant and strongarm the Atomic Energy Agency into recognising the annexations so legitimises them a bit. Fuck knows how that would actually work but that's the talk.

[Ben]

An interesting read specifically regarding how the Russians are seeing things domestically. (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2)

[Bernanke]

1576869077104009217

Complete clownshow.

[Kikó]

An interesting read specifically regarding how the Russians are seeing things domestically. (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2)

Very interesting, thanks.

[Ben]

Jim Cramer has tweeted that Russia will never use nuclear weapons [in Ukraine] so anyone that follows stocks or finance will know that Russia will now definitely use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

(My link above actually details how that would be a bad move by Russia, even if there was no retaliation by the West, because they’re not equipped to advance into a nuclear battlefield so at best it would only serve to maintain current lines of defence.)

[Jimmy Floyd]

Nuking Warsaw would work better, though not if there's a stiff westerly I guess.

[Lewis]

The best way to use a nuclear weapon would be to detonate a very low yield warhead (dialled right down to the bare minimum, like what we used to kick out of helicopters to sink submarines) over a Ukrainian command centre, but send it there via your biggest and loudest ballistic missile so that it sets off the global early warning systems and panics everybody. Alternatively, just send one of those missiles up filled with decoys. The kinetic energy of those things coming back down to Earth is roughly equivalent to their weight in high explosive, and it would demonstrate your ability to put them where you want them.

I'm not sure David Petraeus' response plan makes much sense, assuming as it does that Russia then does nothing in return.

[niko_cee]

You'd have to think there would be a point in the chain of command where the total annihilation of your nation might override whatever madcap order you'd been given. The A and D would be guaranteed, the M a bit more open to debate.

[Lewis]

That we're even having these discussions over Ukraine doesn't say much for our own command structures. It's the most mental shit imaginable.

[Disco]

You say like major conflicts aren't regularly started over the most trivial bullshit.

[Lewis]

They generally aren't, otherwise we would have had nuclear wars over Korea, Suez, Hungary, Berlin, Cuba, Czechoslovakia...

[Disco]

Just because those didn't happen doesn't mean none have, we minced half of Europe because of inbreds beefing over turf.

[Lewis]

Maybe if the Russian Empire had had nuclear weapons Austria-Hungary might have been a bit more sensible about Serbia, or Imperial Germany might have reined them in. Now we know how these things cascade, and we know what these weapons do, and we can recognise 'trivial bullshit' (from our perspective) when we see it, what is the excuse?

[Disco]

That assumes anyone actually learns anything from previous conflicts, which they demonstrably do not.

[Lewis]

They did with Korea, Suez, Hungary, Berlin, Cuba, Czechoslovakia...

[Boydy]

1576976409485901827

[Bernanke]

1577259463689371649

Kherson front is fully collapsing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hope they brought their swimming trunks.

[Shindig]

Opening sequence of Vlad's Army.

[Kikó]

What's the issue here with their rapid collapses? Poor morale? Equipment? Organisation?

[Bernanke]

What's the issue here with their rapid collapses? Poor morale? Equipment? Organisation?

I mean there's a few different ways to read it. In some of these areas if you get a successful attack that goes deep in a very limited area, it becomes very difficult to hold the rest of it just because of flanking risks. The Ukrainians have also been trying to starve the Russians in Kherson on supplies for quite some time, so you could think of it like the flashy ending in chess where you've been picking pieces off in the midgame, which when it falls into place looks like a sudden collapse even though it was in the cards for a longer period.

I also assume the Ukrainians ISR (supported by NATO) is leagues beyond Russian capabilities, meaning that when they move they really know which weakpoints to hit. They're probably very aware of how opportunistic they can be at any given time, meaning when they commit they are fairly certain of gaining something.

[randomlegend]

What's the issue here with their rapid collapses? Poor morale? Equipment? Organisation?

Dedovshchina.

[Lewis]

A more straight-forward explanation is that the Ukrainians have more men and are better able to concentrate forces in particular areas, which they are, quite sensibly, pushing before Russia can swell its numbers. By all accounts they are paying through the nose for the[ir] territory, but they can afford it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My eyes kind of glaze over on military matters (I'm a politics guy) but Russia can't win on the ground, can it? Not now, anyway. Surely the only way they can finish the war satisfactorily from their point of view will be for the West to pull the plug, which also means that the West shouldn't pull the plug, nuclear sabre rattling be damned. That is, if the West's aim is for Ukraine's borders to return to SQAB and Vlad to get a bit of a custard pie in the gob. Who knows what they actually are/should be.

[Lewis]

I was in Tesco the other week and somebody pushed in the queue. I said 'There's a queue here, dickhead', and he just brushed me off. I could have followed him outside and beaten him to death, but I didn't. I just stood there seething to myself. That's where the West is if Russia feels the need to get serious about nuclear weapon use. We've had our extremely costly fun, but at that point we're out.

[Shindig]

Here's a wildcard: If a nuke is dropped, what do China do?

[Lewis]

Either nothing, or joining the rest of the world in sanctioning them into deserved pariah status.

[Giggles]

I have far stronger feelings about the queue skipper than Russia.

[Lewis]

I was absolutely spewing.

[niko_cee]

Either nothing, or joining the rest of the world in sanctioning them into deserved pariah status.

Which is why they won't do it, it would force China and India's hand. All roads lead to ruin that way.

[Jimmy Floyd]

RIP the bridge from Russia to Crimea.

[Bernanke]

Day after Vlad's birthday as well.

[Yevrah]

Nukes before Chrimbo?

[Spikey M]

Even China would disown them if they used Nukes. It would be (perhaps literal) suicide.

[Yevrah]

If all the reports in the media aren't just sticking a Ukrainian bias on things then it's increasingly looking like the only option left to ol' Vlad. Well, either that or retreat, which I assume he's never going to do.

[Spikey M]

He could throw millions of men at Ukraine if he wanted to. The death toll would be horrendous, but they outnumber the Ukrainians massively. That will probably tell eventually.

Plus, the West will eventually get bored of paying through the nose for gas and tell Ukrainian to give up the "pro-Russian" parts as part of a Ceasefire.

[Yevrah]

Isn't he already throwing millions of men at it?

[Spikey M]

Yeah, but in comparison to how many he could send it's the tip of the iceberg. If he sells it as Ukraine invading Russia he could mobilise tens of millions. They may only be armed with bread knives and potato guns but they would take ground like zombies in a bad film.

[niko_cee]

The only thing that 'mobilising millions of Russian men' would actually achieve is mobilising them against him.

There is no way out of this other than a return to the 2014 borders, he's fucked.

[Yevrah]

A nuke it is then. Gonna feel fucking weird/horrific waking up to that news. Strap in gents.

[Spikey M]

Haven't the Yanks said they would respond immediately to the use of Nuclear weapons?

Obviously there's alot of wriggle room within that use of words, but still...

On the plus side, a Nuclear Winter should offset Global Warming nicely.

https://i.ibb.co/DprJg9S/Burned-Frozen-Fish-Sticks-1.jpg

[Shindig]

That's not how nuclear winter works.

[Yevrah]

They have, albeit doing so will obviously start WW3, so whether or not they have the balls to (which I guess is also a consideration for Putin), is anyone's guess.

Was it Lewis who said (if Russia launch one) that's the point we all pull out and put our fingers in our ears? Lewis?

[-james-]

This is a great time to be living within 50 miles of Faslane.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lol at the idea that Russian failure is bad because it means they'll nuke us all. That's what Vlad wants you to think, chumps.

[randomlegend]

I was thinking there's nothing worth bombing in Norfolk but I guess we've got a few military bases.

[Yevrah]

Lol at the idea that Russian failure is bad because it means they'll nuke us all. That's what Vlad wants you to think, chumps.

As I said a few pages back, Russian failure means absolutely nothing to me (and nor should it to anyone else) until they've actually failed. The bunting over it is doing nothing to change the situation that Ukraine or we are in.

And I'm not sure who is saying they'll nuke us all? Presumably they'd be wiped off the face of the map before a second one they sent hit anywhere in the West.

My posts above were only about what will happen next if the situation is as bad for Russia as the bunting brigade are making out, and if it is, the only logical conclusion I can draw is a nuke on Kiev.

[phonics]

I don't know why Yev is considering nukes as it's clearly all going to plan.

[Kikó]

There's not a chance Russia uses a nuclear weapon. Even the mobilisation is desperate as it's not a numbers game at this point, Ukraine are able to push Russia back because they're using long range artillery to break down supply lines and then grinding isolated units to collapse. The best thing for Putin to do would be to fully withdraw and then turn himself into the police.

[Yevrah]

I don't know why Yev is considering nukes as it's clearly all going to plan.

I know this line is a lol one, but the point I was making at the time was that the West were viewing things from how it would be if we'd entered into a needless conflict that had sustained losses, which is a moronic way of looking at it as Russians aren't the same as us. Need I remind you that it's still going, 6 months later and despite all the shit, it's showing no signs of stopping.

[Yevrah]

There's not a chance Russia uses a nuclear weapon. Even the mobilisation is desperate as it's not a numbers game at this point, Ukraine are able to push Russia back because they're using long range artillery to break down supply lines and then grinding isolated units to collapse. The best thing for Putin to do would be to fully withdraw and then turn himself into the police.

So ignoring the jokey last line, what does he actually do? Let's go with it's gone terribly, he's had his arse handed to him by farmers, so he's just going to withdraw and claim it was a score draw like the yanks did with Vietnam?

[Jimmy Floyd]

His options are either keep chucking progressively more useless soldiers into the meat grinder and hope for the best, or give up and withdraw.

[Spikey M]

So ignoring the jokey last line, what does he actually do? Let's go with it's gone terribly, he's had his arse handed to him by farmers, so he's just going to withdraw and claim it was a score draw like the yanks did with Vietnam?

"The Nazi's have been removed and we have handed control back to our Ukrainian colleagues."

Then try again in 10 years with some 21st century weaponry and tactics.

[Yevrah]

His options are either keep chucking progressively more useless soldiers into the meat grinder and hope for the best, or give up and withdraw.

For me, the give up and withdraw option is replaced by launch a nuke. I guess we’ll see who knows their Puts the best.

[Kikó]

I agree with Jimmy's take. There's also a chance he's replaced but still think that's an outside chance as Putin seems to have full domestic control.

[Boydy]

1577809661943767045

[Lewis]

There is plenty of scope for escalation between today and using a nuclear weapon, but if they're not willing to do it in response to their bridge being blown up then you have to wonder what they're playing at.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What does he actually gain by using a nuclear weapon?

[Bam]

What does he actually gain by using a nuclear weapon?


Losing any allies he has.

[Magic]

Gain.

[Bam]

Not a chance.

[Bernanke]

I see Vlad's back to terror bombing civilians.

[Ben]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-9

This is a good write up about the Russian domestic response to the bridge explosion and pretty much explains why they've shelled cities overnight.

[John Arne]

Old Russian basketball coach mate of mine has just sent me a message.

He "escaped" Russia to the only country he could buy a ticket to, being Kyrgyzstan. Had to leave his wife behind in Russia. Brutal.

Now looking for a coaching gig to earn some dosh.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Terror bombings don't actually achieve anything in this context (they might do in Syria with a more downtrodden population, I don't know). It's just a sign they've run out of ideas.

Russia = toast.

[Kikó]

We should tactically nuke them instead.

[Yevrah]

Russia = toast.

When do you reckon we'll actually be able to enjoy this delicious toast?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Putin's credibility depends on him winning the war, the war is unwinnable, and so the bread is toasting. When it pops out of the toaster is a matter of time and events, but it'll pop. There's no turning toast back into bread.

[Giggles]

Unless he turns us all into the spread first.

[Waffdon]

He’ll be dead within a few months.

[Don]

The footage of the bridge bombing that killed those civilians was quite good fun but twitter seems to be quieter on footage of these Russian missiles which is a shame. Hopefully they can make a commemorative coin or something.

[Yevrah]

Putin's credibility depends on him winning the war, the war is unwinnable, and so the bread is toasting.

Isn't this where nukes come in the equation though? Drop a few of those and that'll 'win' the war.

[Bernanke]

Isn't this where nukes come in the equation though? Drop a few of those and that'll 'win' the war.

In what sense will that win the war?

[Kikó]

1579407395931172865?t=ZMgMfmRKiACcZbhPbsX3RQ&s=19

German consulate hit.

[Yevrah]

In what sense will that win the war?

In the Ukraine will be a sea of fallout with millions dead sense.

[Bernanke]

In the Ukraine will be a sea of fallout with millions dead sense.

How does an outcome like that "come into the equation" of winning the war? What do you think Putin's current goal is?

[Yevrah]

I’ve no idea what Putin’s goal is, does anyone?

[Kikó]

Yes, reunite the old Soviet empire and murder all the "Nazis" in Ukraine.

[Yevrah]

The Nazi stuff is what he's said publicly, but Christ knows what he actually wants behind closed doors.

[Disco]

How it will end up playing out is anyone's guess but the aim was absolutely to restore the old imperial borders.

[Ben]

All the Russian nationalists think they have a claim to the entire Soviet land. Ukraine (and Georgia some years ago) were getting too anti-Russia for their liking.

[Spikey M]

You'd think they'd be grateful for the 40 odd years of stagnation and poverty they gave them.

[Shindig]

He wants land. Irradiated land is not worth having.

[Yevrah]

He wants land. Irradiated land is not worth having.

Fair point, but as things stand now he's not getting much/any land and is losing the war. Maybe he doesn't care about the latter if the former can't be achieved, but that seems unlikely.

[Spikey M]

If there's one thing Russia aren't short of, it's land.

If I had to guess - which I do because Vlad isn't taking my calls - it's 50% about rebuilding the Soviet Union and 50% about not having a massive Nato member on his doorstep.

[Ben]

I stumbled across this (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin%E2%80%99s-unacceptable-%E2%80%9C-ramp%E2%80%9D) from back in May. Some interesting tidbits.


Annexation of Ukrainian lands is likely the only “off-ramp” that Putin is interested in pursuing at this time. Even this face-saving option, which falls far short of the Kremlin's initial war aims of complete regime change in Kyiv, would be a devastating blow to Ukraine and is likely the minimum outcome that the Kremlin is willing to accept. If Putin can declare victory by annexing large swathes of Ukrainian territory, he can better sell the costs of the war to the Russian population and to any sympathetic global audiences. The Kremlin absurdly justified its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine as defending the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics from Ukrainian “Nazi” aggression and an alleged planned genocide against Russian speakers.


After annexing Ukrainian territory, the Kremlin will frame Ukrainian negotiators’ demands for the return of Ukraine’s sovereign territory as absurd requests for Russia to give up its own land and dismiss them.


A Russian military collapse combined with further Ukrainian battlefield successes or the Kremlin's acceptance that a military collapse is imminent are likely the only other circumstances under which Putin would accept something less than his stated objectives for this phase of the war. Collapse does not necessarily mean a mass surrender or rout of the Russian military. A Russian military collapse would more likely be roughly analogous to the state of the French army from April to June of 1917 during the First World War, when over half the divisions in the French army refused to go on the offensive due to shattered morale and poor leadership. Russian forces in such a state would be extraordinarily vulnerable to concentrated Ukrainian counteroffensives, and the Ukrainian military would be able to pick the battles of its choosing if Russian forces were unwilling to attack.


The Russian military will not be completely destroyed, nor would it have to leave Ukraine before reaching a state of collapse. However, a collapsed Russian military would lose its ability to function as a coherent fighting force. If that happened, Putin might well find himself obliged to accept far less than his current stated objectives.

This was written in May but pretty much accurately predicted where we are up to right now. The rest of the article floats more ideas about what will happen even further down the line.

[7om]

Well Finland have already fucked that concept, unless they’re not sufficiently massive.

[Lewis]

This isn't 'terror bombing'. They have bashed a load of infrastructure in. They ought to have done this for about three weeks straight prior to invading like the Americans would have done (or maybe whilst invading accounting for them invading a worthy country), and you can't just cook it up over a Sunday afternoon, so this will have been on the books for a while.

[Pen]

Well Finland have already fucked that concept, unless they’re not sufficiently massive.

?

Do you mean the Marin comment from that Macron thing?

[7om]

?

Do you mean the Marin comment from that Macron thing?

As in, Finland have joined NATO and share a land border with Russia.

[Kikó]

This isn't 'terror bombing'. They have bashed a load of infrastructure in. They ought to have done this for about three weeks straight prior to invading like the Americans would have done (or maybe whilst invading accounting for them invading a worthy country), and you can't just cook it up over a Sunday afternoon, so this will have been on the books for a while.

Sure. That's why they picked a quiet time of day to pick these infrastructure targets.

[Ben]

Putin has said it’s retaliation for the bridge attack. Which isn’t completely untrue, but reading between the lines, he’s under a lot of pressure, and for the first time ever open criticism, domestically, so he kind of needed a pretext to show the nationalists (Wagner etc) he still means business. Because really, the missile attacks didn’t really serve a purpose other than posturing. Infrastructure wasn’t massively damaged, they’ve just seemingly launched a random rocket at every city.

[niko_cee]

All out war doesn't really fit with the 'special military operation' narrative does it? Nor does it really make sense to liberate people by razing their cities to the ground.

[mikem]

Using deterrents like nuclear weapons encourages retaliation. It doesn’t discourage it because the cost of action is now priced in. So Putin would be begging to not simply be fighting NATO weaponry but also NATO troops.

It is why everyone always complains that the strongest sanctions are not used at the outset.

[Spikey M]

All out war doesn't really fit with the 'special military operation' narrative does it? Nor does it really make sense to liberate people by razing their cities to the ground.

Raising NAZI cities to the NAZI ground.

[Lewis]

Sure. That's why they picked a quiet time of day to pick these infrastructure targets.

Would it have been less terror bomby under cover of darkness?

[Spikey M]

Using deterrents like nuclear weapons encourages retaliation. It doesn’t discourage it because the cost of action is now priced in. So Putin would be begging to not simply be fighting NATO weaponry but also NATO troops.

It is why everyone always complains that the strongest sanctions are not used at the outset.

It's like Jimmy said a fair whack ago; we've forgotten how bad WW2 was. Hiroshima is just a word now and "mutually assured destruction" has lost its fear factor. We now live in the age of "lol, they wouldn't use them anyway, it would just be a conventional war". Which is probably true, until it isn't.

[Kikó]

Would it have been less terror bomby under cover of darkness?

You wouldn't be at the start of people going to work and school. You know that you Russian troll.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The terror bombing is the bit where they hit parks and traffic jams in central Kiev, and apartment blocks in Zaporizhiya (every night for the last several).

Didn't think you and Evo Morales would have found common ground so soon.

[mikem]

I’m just saying that force stops being a deterrent when you use it and a different set of calculations get used by policymakers. Russia isn’t worried we may put the current sanctions regime on …. Why would they, we’ve done it.

[Lewis]

This weekend Ukraine blew up a bridge and killed innocent bystanders by either putting explosives in some poor unsuspecting cunt's lorry or recruiting a suicide bomber, and the global reaction was for people to piss themselves over it. What was that?

[Spikey M]

The destruction of military supply chain?

[Lewis]

Terror bombing, yeah. The Royal Air Force missed a bridge in the Gulf War and killed a hundred Iraqis in a market. It happens.

[Shindig]

I'm just amazed Russia didn't build a second bridge in the years since annexing Crimea.

[Magic]

Terror bombing, yeah. The Royal Air Force missed a bridge in the Gulf War and killed a hundred Iraqis in a market. It happens.

Did we make a stamp of it?

[phonics]

I'm just amazed Russia didn't build a second bridge in the years since annexing Crimea.

Yes, instead, they built that bridge in the years since annexing Crimea?

[Shindig]

Y'know, that thought occurred to me but more posts >

[Pen]

As in, Finland have joined NATO and share a land border with Russia.

Ah of course. Although we’re still Turkey and Hungary away from being in. They’ll obviously ratify it at some point when they get what they want from the US.

[Kikó]

More of those infrastructure targets here. https://news.yahoo.com/russia-launches-missile-strikes-across-ukraine-hitting-mostly-civilian-targets-162249496.html

[Don]

34 missiles to kill 5 people. They really be hitting those civillian hubs.

[randomlegend]

Lewis being a Russian bot is a weird turn of events.

[Waffdon]

Not really. He’s been like this for years. Just says the opposite of what the majority of the board say and types a lot of words from what he’s found off right wing Twitter.

[randomlegend]

I think he's just a fan of WAR, regardless of who is doing the WARRING.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He's a classical realist, a la Morgenthau, Bismarck, Metternich, Clausewitz et al. How this comes across in the context of modern discourse is as an unusual affinity for the strong prevailing and lack of sympathy with the underdog.

The opposite to him would be all the Scandis who love the UN and want a world government.

[Lewis]

That is about right, at least as far as other countries are concerned. Plus I try not to just believe any old shite, i.e. that Russia has deliberately aimed everything at civilians and somehow only killed five people. Even with Ukrainian casualty reporting that doesn't make a lot of sense, even if they were also the five people who kept the lights on in all the cities whose infrastructure wasn't hit.

[Don]

Was looking at reported casualty figures earlier which was very interesting, if not for the fact Russians aren't having the reported disasterclass then simply for the incredible level of Ukranian disinformation and the dirty West's thirst to drink it up.

[Ben]

The Russian war effort seems to be unravelling. Russian military bloggers are great sources for information because they're pro-Russia (so not peddling that pesky Western agenda) but aren't afraid to report the truth and criticise those who need criticising (even including Putin recently).

The missile attacks are clearly an attempt by Putin to appease these war thirsty fellas but it's not even been a week since and they're already back to slating every fucker in the Kremlin and Army again. The Commander of the Southern Army has been arrested just because things aren't going too well and already handfuls of the general public who were mobilised a few weeks ago (and promised proper training and supplies) are already back home in coffins. One blogger has estimated 10,000 deaths and 40,000 injured by February and the conscripts are of such low quality that they won't even change the course of the war. :cab:

And now apparently they're saying all offensives have been halted in Donetsk Oblast (the only region they've taken any territory in weeks) due to extremely low morale and inability to perform in combat.

[Shindig]

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-eleven-volunteer-soldiers-killed-in-russian-military-firing-range-shooting-kremlin-ministry-of-defence-says-12721651

I couldn't think of a worst time for that to happen.

[Ben]

If I had to place bets I reckon it's a false flag by the Wagner Group or Chechen fella to get Putin to start missile attacks again. They're raging he's called it off.

[Ben]

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin stated on October 14 that “several thousand” children from Kherson Oblast are “already in other regions of Russia, resting in rest homes and children’s camps.” ... Russian authorities openly admitted to placing children from occupied areas of Ukraine up for adoption with Russian families in a manner that may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

:|

[Spikey M]

As much as it's clearly terrible, that's a pretty liberal use of the word genocide. Unless the kids are being housed with Russians because their parents have been massacred, which I appreciate is a possibility.

[Kikó]

It's in the definition of genocide so nothing liberal about it.
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml

[Spikey M]

Not having it. If they ain't killing, they ain't genociding.

[Shindig]

Add the referendums and the passing out of Russian passports, yeah. Genocide, just not entirely around ethnic mass murder.

Still doesn't sit with me, though.

[Don]

Annexation and genocide, it'a a good job the white man stands against such atrocities so that we can keep order in this world of ours.

[Lewis]

Not having it. If they ain't killing, they ain't genociding.

Russia used the weird shit Ukraine was doing around Russian culture/language to claim they were preventing a 'genocide', such is the wooliness of the original definition. Their mistake was conflating it with Nazism and the Holocaust, because then the alarm went off and everyone had to strengthen the definition to protect their specialness.

[Spikey M]

Did we technically genocide Shamima Begum?

[Ben]

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-eleven-volunteer-soldiers-killed-in-russian-military-firing-range-shooting-kremlin-ministry-of-defence-says-12721651

I couldn't think of a worst time for that to happen.

Apparently this was a couple of Muslims from Tajikistan. They got drafted against their will, turned up to training and saying it wasn't their war to fight. The ethnic Russian commander said Allah was a coward so they shot the place up.

[Spikey M]

That's quite the reverse heel turn.

https://media.tenor.com/J1xL3h2cJ-0AAAAS/stunner-stone-cold-steve-austin.gif

[Don]

The interesting thing from now on is how the rules of engagement change. Reserves can free up better troops for more critical sectors, but the 'Special Military Operation' restricted a lot of stuff that would otherwise have made sense, like large scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Hoying something through the middle of this (https://www.google.com/maps/@50.5881755,30.5110024,1721m/data=!3m1!1e3) is one to watch.

Looks like they possibly may have hit it now. All gone very silent on Guardian last few days about the wonderful Ukranian advances so I expect Russia are doing great things out there. Got on Russia at 2.6 just before yesterday's suicide drone attack :cool:

[Ben]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1581983901815558145.html


A Shahed-136 (the loitering munition used in the attacks on Kiev today) carries 88 pounds of explosives. By comparison a typical 155mm artillery round (M795) has 23.8 pounds of explosives. So it's about 3 shells worth of explosion without the consistent fragmentation.

28 launched, 23 intercepted, 5 functioned. So the overall effect is about fifteen shells worth of explosives fired at a very large city. That's not a lot (ignoring the very real mental effects of being under long range fire no matter the actual numbers involved).

By comparison, a 1944 V-2 rocket designed for such bombardments carried 2,200 pounds of explosives.

All of this is just to say that if you've somehow deluded yourself into thinking bombing civilians will work for you, this is a really poor system with which to do it.

Yeah tremendous work.

[Don]

'Bombing civilians'. I'd love to big them up as a fantastic tool but I heard the Russians had to reduce their load even further than our original models in order to install an improved navigation system. May possibly be an Iron Dome situation where they cost a fair amount of resources to defend against?

Either way, we're shit and we know we are http://www.persianfootball.com/forums/images/smilies/iranflag.gif

[Boydy]

Do the Russians even have any catchy songs about their drones?

[Ben]

It says a lot for their own stockpiles when they're having to use more and more Iranian imports. Meanwhile it seems Ukraine will have access to infinite Western ammunition. This is no doubt the reason Putin is wanting to freeze the frontlines over the winter, so their factories can catch up. Lots of Russian milbloggers openly talking about their depleted arsenals.

[Spikey M]

When Yev finally makes The Sitcom he needs to do an episode based on Taz called "The Stereotype".

[Kikó]

You misspelt bore.

[Don]

Yeah, Russians taking advantage of other countries' weaponry sounds like real desperate manouveres. Also, the West's supplies, although likely to outlast Russia's, are far from infinite.

[Kikó]

I think it's a really important part of the war now as the new Kiev push kicks in. Next few weeks will be really interesting.

[Ben]

Yeah, Russians taking advantage of other countries' weaponry sounds like real desperate manouveres. Also, the West's supplies, although likely to outlast Russia's, are far from infinite.

Infinite or not, it doesn't matter. Russia are completely dependent on Iran, which can only end in tears.

[Lewis]

Iran has thousands of really quite good missiles, and so does Syria if need be. Israel would be silly to get involved as well seeing as Russia and Iran are the only thing that stands between Palestinians and serious weaponry. The interesting thing at the moment is hits against Ukrainian air defence, which, coupled with bombers moving around, means something a bit bigger might be getting dropped somewhere in time for the cold.

[Ben]

The Russians are fleeing Kherson but also taking as many residents as possible on the way out. The Ukrainians have advanced like 20km in a day or two and are almost at city limits. They're going to nuke it on the way out aren't they? No way they let Ukraine just have it back.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Flood it, nuke it, nerve gas the evacuees, let's have a game of Surovikin bingo.

[Don]

'Bombing civilians'. I'd love to big them up as a fantastic tool but I heard the Russians had to reduce their load even further than our original models in order to install an improved navigation system. May possibly be an Iron Dome situation where they cost a fair amount of resources to defend against?

Either way, we're shit and we know we are http://www.persianfootball.com/forums/images/smilies/iranflag.gif

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/19/financial-toll-ukraine-downing-drones-vastly-exceeds-russia-costs

:huhu:

[Ben]

Ukrainian jets are reusable. Downed Iranian drones, less so.

[Ben]

The Russians are fleeing Kherson but also taking as many residents as possible on the way out. The Ukrainians have advanced like 20km in a day or two and are almost at city limits. They're going to nuke it on the way out aren't they? No way they let Ukraine just have it back.

Ahhhh they're going to breach the dam and flood the area, not nuke the city. :D

Remember this when Russia say it was the Ukrainians who did it. They're already laying the groundwork to do a false flag. Hence the open admission that they're leaving Kherson rather than be seen domestically to lose it in a fight.

[Spikey M]

Tactical flooding. Not terror flooding.

[Magic]

Sabotage in Shetland causing WW3. :harold:

[Boydy]

What?

[Ben]

They were cut off from the Faroes, and now Mainland Scotland. No internet or telephone.

Didn't we used to have a Shetlander? Toby?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Early signs that the reverse ferret is happening in Kherson.

Why did Putin bother annexing it? He looks like a twat now, should have stuck to Luhansk and Donetsk.

[Ben]

Land corridor to Crimea.

I saw a satellite image on Twitter of a temporary barge bridge they built to get military supplies back to the east bank and it's why they're seemingly randomly transporting 50k Ukrainian residents across at the same time; they're basically the human shield so Ukraine can't bomb them in the process.

[Don]

Keep calm and let the Ukranian immigrant wave into mainland Europe do God's work.

[Bernanke]

Some recent crazy footage:

1584128393510952960

1583975105465503746

[Andrew]

Russia talking up Ukraine setting off a dirty nuclear bomb to up the ante in this war.

At least I won't have to worry about my gas bill when all the superpowers start lobing nuclear bombs at each other..

[Ben]

It's purely a line by Russia to get Western countries to back off with their support because it's going tits up for them in Kherson and Luhansk. It's probably not going to work though.

[Kikó]

Russia talking up Ukraine setting off a dirty nuclear bomb to up the ante in this war.

At least I won't have to worry about my gas bill when all the superpowers start lobing nuclear bombs at each other..

1584519199933665281?t=vP0Tz30WlxkLHrcJg40tJQ&s=19

[Yevrah]

Surely they haven't used a still with a clapperboard in it?

[Spikey M]

https://youtu.be/XxsjOq9I9jI

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63378613

Russian state broadcaster RT has suspended and condemned one of its top presenters, Anton Krasovsky, after he called for the burning and drowning of Ukrainian children.

In the interview Krasovsky smirked as he said "just drown those children, drown them". Alternatively, he said, they could be shoved into huts and burned.

He also joked about Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian grandmothers.

Yikes.

[Ben]

You know you've done off the deep end when state broadcasters are having to reel you in.

Also, this is interesting:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts on September 30 ignited a schism within the Kremlin, which will likely intensify as Ukraine liberates more territories, according to Budanov. Budanov stated that Kremlin elites largely did not support Putin’s decision to annex Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts prior to securing those territories, prompting many officials to contact their Western counterparts to express their disinterest in continuing the war in Ukraine. Budanov claimed that some Kremlin officials began advocating for negotiations with Ukraine to their Western counterparts while the Russian military-political command plotted missile strikes to scare Ukrainians into negotiations. Budanov‘s statement is consistent with the influx of Western reports about direct criticism of Putin within the Kremlin less than a week after the annexation announcement around October 6. Wagner Group*–affiliated Telegram channels also noted the emergence of the pro-war and pro-negotiations factions within the Kremlin within the same timeframe. Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin has been consistently referencing the factionalization within the Kremlin since, even explicitly stating that he is part of the “war until victory” faction.

[niko_cee]

"Pro-negotiations" factions?

Sounds like the Russian version of FBPE.

[Ben]

Probably. It's not surprising that these people exist but it's surprising that some of them are high up in the Kremlin with a lot of sway, enough for the pro-war people to actively talk about it publicly. There's been a big shift in the last month away from the usual Russian "this is the way and nobody will question it" mantra in the state media. People on both sides are out there chatting shit (whether that makes Russia look good or bad) without repercussions.

[Ben]

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base/

This is an interesting read, about what was found in an abandoned Russian military base.

[Don]

Lot of Ukranian tears now, I've cashed out my Russia bet at 1.12.

[Kikó]

Remember when you used to be semi interesting?

[Don]

All the best with your continued quest for righteousness. Maybe next time.

[Kikó]

No, i couldn't either.

[Ben]

Definitely a parody of his former self these days. Just gammon and Liverpool now, at least there used to be entertaining stuff like tick tings.

[John Arne]

Just wait until Taremi smashes a hattrick against England in the World Cup....

[randomlegend]

Definitely a parody of his former self these days. Just gammon and Liverpool now, at least there used to be entertaining stuff like tick tings.

Since his worst poster award he's also massively upped the racism, which is of course very very clever and funny.

[Don]

Look at these bunch of fucking crying quilts :D


Just wait until Taremi smashes a hattrick against England in the World Cup....

What a way to culminate decades worth of outstanding contribution :drool:

[Giggles]

All he needs at this stage is for you to predict he won’t.

[Yevrah]

Taz remains an outstanding poster.

[SvN]

Agreed, being a good poster doesn't mean that person isn't necessarily a retard. In a completely unrelated point, I've always thought you were a good poster.

[randomlegend]

I guess you need to be a bafta-winning content creator to understand his genius.

[Boydy]

Agreed, being a good poster doesn't mean that person isn't necessarily a retard. In a completely unrelated point, I've always thought you were a good poster.
:D

Lol

[Don]

Poor Yev thought he could break free from the gammon groupthink without repurcussions. These forces are huge (possibly even massive).

[Magic]

I must say getting Yev on board really is quite an achievement. :drool:

[Giggles]

I’m never fond of cloves in a glaze. Honey and mustard is bang on, maybe a bit of brown sugar at Easter or Christmas.

[Yevrah]

On board with what? I've always thought Taz was a good poster.

[7om]

He’s just a more extreme version of Lewis.

[Spikey M]

Agreed, being a good poster doesn't mean that person isn't necessarily a retard. In a completely unrelated point, I've always thought you were a good poster.

Ouch :D

[Spikey M]

He’s just a more extreme version of Lewis.

Nah, Lewis has actual reasons for his positions, even if they are contrarian. Taz just wants to trigger the gammons.

[P_3]

So 44 cruise missiles were intercepted out of 50. But 18 facilities in 10 regions were hit. The maths isn't working out for me. :sorry:

[Ben]

They also used other weapons like Taz’s drones (which also have a high shoot-down ratio).

[Kikó]

On board with what? I've always thought Taz was a good poster.

Oof. Good use of the svn principle.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Israel giving comms equipment to the Ukrainians has made me wonder what the lineups will be when World War 3 starts (and it will, at least as Cold War 2). We need some new team names as well, 'The Allies' is old hat.

Team 1
USA
Europe (possibly minus Serbia and Hungary, if they have the balls)
UK
Australia/NZ/Canada/Norway etc
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
probably Israel?
Turkey? unless it wants to leave NATO

Team 2
Russia
China
Iran
North Korea
Venezuela/Bolivia/any similar loons down there

Neutral
India
Pakistan

TBC
Saudi Arabia
Africa
Egypt et al
Mexico? Probably in Team 1
South East Asia minus Vietnam/Burma who are probably Team 2

Can't see Team 2 winning that.

[Magic]

If it does all kick off I want to see all the global feuds completely ignited (i.e India v Pakistan).

[John Arne]

Israel giving comms equipment to the Ukrainians has made me wonder what the lineups will be when World War 3 starts (and it will, at least as Cold War 2). We need some new team names as well, 'The Allies' is old hat.

Team 1
USA
Europe (possibly minus Serbia and Hungary, if they have the balls)
UK
Australia/NZ/Canada/Norway etc
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
probably Israel?
Turkey? unless it wants to leave NATO

Team 2
Russia
China
Iran
North Korea
Venezuela/Bolivia/any similar loons down there

Neutral
India
Pakistan

TBC
Saudi Arabia
Africa
Egypt et al
Mexico? Probably in Team 1
South East Asia minus Vietnam/Burma who are probably Team 2

Can't see Team 2 winning that.

Yeah, Team 1 have it the bag. Vietnam are aggressively neutral nowadays (the Three No's Principle; NO defence alliances, NO foreign bases on VN soil, NO alignment of 2nd country against a 3rd). Basically, pussies.

[hfswjyr]

Does Europe include Switzerland this time?

[Spikey M]

Yeah, Team 1 have it the bag. Vietnam are aggressively neutral nowadays (the Three No's Principle; NO defence alliances, NO foreign bases on VN soil, NO alignment of 2nd country against a 3rd). Basically, pussies.

Or intelligent. Wish we'd keep out of this shit too.

[niko_cee]

lol at whoever it is [Turkey?] calling Russia's bluff on the grain corridor.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-positions-near-key-city-of-kherson-12742700

Russian troops are being withdrawn from Kherson.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Why did the stupid cunt annex it if he couldn't hold it/supply it?

Also they appear to have offed their lol comical ali type character Stremousov.

[Ben]

It's all a bit amateur hour for them lately.

They've been trying to keep weapons deals with Iran on the down low too for whatever reason, so Iran went and announced the latest one on Twitter. One Russian commander said they were on the verge of running out of tanks as well as close-quarters artillery (they used one of those thermobaric bad boys just to push back a small corps on the highway in Luhansk) so Iran really have them over a barrel which is lol in itself.

[Shindig]

Turns out when you funnel money out the country for decades, there's no money to buy shit that works.

[Ben]

Well we would know that.

[Bernanke]

Rumours flying around that 20k Russian troops are stuck on the wrong side of the river. :happycry:

1590843959005544462

[Ben]

I think it was pretty obvious when they started this "fighting withdrawal" a few weeks ago that they'd have to sacrifice the last soldiers. But 20k of them, fucking hell.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They're still trying to fight WW2, aren't they? Both militarily and in their messed-up heads. Haven't worked out that this time they're Germany.

[Magic]

All these new world order cunts are doing my fucking head in on Twitter. What is this BRICs fucking nonsense.

[Spikey M]

All these new world order cunts are doing my fucking head in on Twitter. What is this BRICs fucking nonsense.

You built your own echo chamber when you went Antivax.

[Magic]

You built your own echo chamber when you went Antivax.

I did. There's a lot of crossover, it's quite interesting.

[Spikey M]

Fwiw BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, isn't it? A trading network amongst the (formerly) growing economies.

That stuff does tend to matter in times of war, so it's not necessarily a conspiracy. Although I don't know what they're actually saying.

[Giggles]

Seems like a lot of something something devalue the US dollar.

[Yevrah]

Is there still a war occurring? If so, are we any closer to there not being a war?

[Don]

Pleased to report the Kherson withdrawal is complete with no loss of personnel or equipment. Bring on the winter :huhu:

[Spikey M]

Is there still a war occurring? If so, are we any closer to there not being a war?

Depends if you class a retreat as "war" I guess. Although, from what I heard on the Radio this morning, the expectation is that Russia will camp the other side of the Dnipro River and rely on the river being impossible to attack across. I can't see how that could possibly go wrong.

[Ben]

Pleased to report the Kherson withdrawal is complete with no loss of personnel or equipment. Bring on the winter :huhu:

1591014065018929152