Putin On the Ritz

[Jimmy Floyd]

There is a war, but other than a few weeks in May/June it's pretty much been all bad news for Russia.

There's no real way for the Russians to exit without either total defeat or regime change at home, so expect it go on well into 2023.

The only thing pro-Russian twitter seems to have left now is 'time is on our side', which sounds great but actually depends on an erosion of western support which I'm not sure is going to come. The Russians have badly underestimated both Ukraine and the West.

[Yevrah]

but other than a few weeks in May/June it's pretty much been all bad news for Russia.

And for everyone else.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mainly them.

If you're neutral in this one you're pro-Putin, it's that kind of business.

[Lewis]

There is something a bit fishy about this retreat. There is an angle where it makes immediate sense, but Russia didn't really need to do it unless it has suddenly become very, very casualty averse, and the Ukrainians have barely pressed them whilst doing it, despite having spent the last month having every single one of their local probing operations bashed to pieces. There is a lot of bollocks doing the rounds about it being the precursor to serious peace discussions, and now would be a good time to sort something whereby they can both be seen to win and lose, so hopefully there is something to that.

[Don]

Why on Earth would Ukraine agree to any peace deal?

They're smashing it, Kherson Liberation �� Kyiv����Latest���� @JerusalemDiary confirmed it.

[niko_cee]

Aye, just wait until they encounter the Republican Guard.

[Ben]

Russia pulled back because they couldn’t maintain supply to that side of the river. Ukraine should counter attack as much as they can through the winter on the frozen ground because Russia will regroup and come back in the spring with 120,000 new recruits and a new stockpile of weapons. Their factories need to catch up on what they pissed away the last few months.

[Jimmy Floyd]

There is something a bit fishy about this retreat. There is an angle where it makes immediate sense, but Russia didn't really need to do it unless it has suddenly become very, very casualty averse, and the Ukrainians have barely pressed them whilst doing it, despite having spent the last month having every single one of their local probing operations bashed to pieces. There is a lot of bollocks doing the rounds about it being the precursor to serious peace discussions, and now would be a good time to sort something whereby they can both be seen to win and lose, so hopefully there is something to that.

Probably this, back home, or in Putin's lair. If twenty thousand of them went in some kind of Dunkirk-style nightmare trying to get back across the river he probably starts losing the public, or whoever it is he is concerned about losing.

Where they have fallen back to now looks to me (military expert) more like a stalemate position all the way along the front, which (they think) suits them better.

[mikem]

Probably this, back home, or in Putin's lair. If twenty thousand of them went in some kind of Dunkirk-style nightmare trying to get back across the river he probably starts losing the public, or whoever it is he is concerned about losing.

Where they have fallen back to now looks to me (military expert) more like a stalemate position all the way along the front, which (they think) suits them better.

This sounds correct to me. I genuinely think people overrate how much we (the collective West) can force negotiations on parties that are not interested in it. At the end of the day, we are mostly observers.

Ukraine’s government doesn’t have the legitimacy to give up large chunks of the country. The scenes from today show that. Putin has never pretended to have any interest in negotiations so what is everyone talking about.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That sounds like more of a thing over in the US, especially in sections of your right. Here and in Europe I don't think there is much other than support for a Ukrainian victory except on what I would hesitantly call (for fear of TTH reprisals) the extreme left of politics, and also ethnic minorities tend to be far more pro-Russia or at least their first instinct is to whatabout regarding Iraq.

I mean, I walked past Horse Guards earlier today (the ceremonial HQ of the British military) and they had a Ukraine flag flying rather than a union jack, which kind of sums up where we are.

[mikem]

We get it from both flanks and just a general sense that conflicts revolve around us. That seems to be a shared view from Noam Chomsky to Glen Greenwald to Tucker Carlson.

The midterms have resolved any issues of funding. The squishy left is squishy but people mistake them for the activist anti-US imperialist left. The nativist right took a big hit in the midterms and will just force leadership to work with Pelosi because she and McConnell are the only two US politicians who actually understand how to whip a caucus.

[Lewis]

Europe are observing at best, but if America turned the taps off then Ukraine starts sell-out talks the next day. Not that they will, obviously, so long as the suffering is all on the European side.

[mikem]

That is the realist position sure. It involves the parties involved acting with perfect rationality - which seems ludicrous to me. Or that their incentives align with yours / ours. And they don’t. We think business leaders act more rationally than most. But watch as Musk and Zuckerberg just burn billions when they should just cut and run.

The other flaw in the logic is saying “so long as the suffering is all on the European side”. Find me a single Ukrainian who would agree with this.

[niko_cee]

This is a perfect proxy war for the good old US of A to run their erstwhile major strategic opponent into the dirt, without even having to get their hands overly dirty, they're not going to 'turn the taps' off even if the more idiotic parts of their political establishment want them to. It also serves as a clear warning to Chairman Xi et al lest they get any ideas above their station. Hegemony isn't going to be ceded lightly.

Eurovision 2025 is going to be in Sevastopol.

[Lewis]

Which is great for them; but the European economy is in bits and will be for some time, our politics is going mental, and those millions of Ukrainian refugees are never going home regardless of what happens there. Nobody signed up for this in February, and we ought to be sufficiently detached to try and bring it to an imperfect close whilst the situation is relatively stable, even if the Americans want it to go on forever.

[Ben]

Ukraine aren’t going to want to do that. The next four months is their best chance to regain lost territory. At the very least they’ll want the land around the nuclear plant back.

[niko_cee]

Which is great for them; but the European economy is in bits and will be for some time, our politics is going mental, and those millions of Ukrainian refugees are never going home regardless of what happens there. Nobody signed up for this in February, and we ought to be sufficiently detached to try and bring it to an imperfect close whilst the situation is relatively stable, even if the Americans want it to go on forever.

Europe has no leverage in this situation.

[Lewis]

They can want whatever they want. We shouldn't be underwriting it, and even keeping our heads up America's arse isn't impoverishing ourselves.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thankfully, as if it did the French, Germans and Italians would have chucked the towel in months ago.

[Ben]

Macron was in Moscow with his white flag before Russia even launched the special military operation.

[Lewis]

Europe has lots of leverage. Russian gas and oil could be flowing by Sunday; it could decisively block any prospect of Ukrainian EU/NATO membership (and chuck a giant spanner into NATO functions generally); every weapon they have comes through European airspace (as do American planes floating over the Black Sea); most of the military training has a European component; and half of the special forces assistance will be European. Europe and Turkey could have it closed down relatively soon if they wanted to.

[niko_cee]

Yes, Europe could have 'ended' this war fairly sharpish if it had sided with Russia.

[Lewis]

It would be more siding with itself, like the Americans have.

[niko_cee]

Well, that is how Orwell envisioned it, I guess.

[Kikó]

Lewis would have appeased Hitler. Poland has nowt to do with us.

The European economy is adapting to life without Putin's oil.

[Spikey M]

Yeah, it's only poor people not being able to afford luxuries like heating and food. They're adapting to live via photosynthesis now.

[Yevrah]

The European economy is adapting to life without Putin's oil.

Life really is good in your ivory tower, eh?

[Shindig]

I think something like this dragging on could give renewable energy a (mild?) kick up the arse. So there's that. At least with that kind of energy, it'll largely come from within rather than having to import fuel.

[Giggles]

Life really is good in your ivory tower, eh?

He heats the house with the radiance off his own self satisfaction.

[Don]

My man was previously saying Europe was unaffected so give him time please.

1591162458952982528

[Kikó]

Life really is good in your ivory tower, eh?

Go fuck yourself.

[Kikó]

Yeah, it's only poor people not being able to afford luxuries like heating and food. They're adapting to live via photosynthesis now.

Germany's government have rolled out a number of measures to support low income families with tax breaks and energy payments. I'm not sure what non European countries have done.

[Yevrah]

Go fuck yourself.

You really are an awful human being. The worst type of champagne socialist.

[Kikó]

What the fuck are you on about you utter abortion of a human

[Offshore Toon]

Take it to DMs.

[Yevrah]

It’s a comment on the wealth of content available from your posts. Sat there as you do commenting on how the poor are coping without a single hit to your lifestyle.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Can it not be true that the Germans in particular have managed to mitigate a lot of the forecast energy problems (notably via gas storage) and also that some people in various countries are going to struggle with costs, partially as a knock-on effect from the Ukrainian war.

[Spikey M]

It’s a comment on the wealth of content available from your posts. Sat there as you do commenting on how the poor are coping without a single hit to your lifestyle.

That's not fair Fois Gras isn't immune to inflation, you know?

Seriously though, I would love for some people - especially those supposedly from the left that think our own suffering is worth it to help Ukraine - to do my job for a day.

[Kikó]

It’s a comment on the wealth of content available from your posts. Sat there as you do commenting on how the poor are coping without a single hit to your lifestyle.

Where did I say that in my post? You're genuinely making an argument up on something I didn't write.

Europe are having to adapt which means different governments are taking measures to get off Russian oil. I've not said that no one is impacted or that poor people need to crack on.

[Don]

On the ropes.

[Spikey M]

poor people need to crack on.

Disgusting.

[Giggles]

That's not fair Fois Gras isn't immune to inflation, you know?

Seriously though, I would love for some people - especially those supposedly from the left that think our own suffering is worth it to help Ukraine - to do my job for a day.

You’d be asking them to even acknowledge the worthless, let alone care.

That doesn’t come close to tucking yourself into your goose down bedding at night and satisfying yourself that your solar panels are worth all their lives.

[Kikó]

😂

[Manc]

Some lovely needle to kick off the weekend.

[Giggles]

The strong foundation TTH is built on.

[Kikó]

Excellent way to spend a morning.

[Ben]

Time for a WDYTOE.

[John Arne]

Was it Kiko who also had a massive family do during the height of lockdown?

Get him in the bin :D

[7om]

I lolled at “goose down bedding”.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Was it Kiko who also had a massive family do during the height of lockdown?

Get him in the bin :D

He traveled to Scotland to pick up his boots.

[Kikó]

I went to live at my in laws for 3 months at Christmas. There was no massive Christmas do.

[Magic]

😂

:D

You're such a cunt.

[Lewis]

Lewis would have appeased Hitler. Poland has nowt to do with us.

The European economy is adapting to life without Putin's oil.

These are not remotely comparable situations, but, given that the entire nation of Poland ended up being moved westwards to appease the Soviet Union (and create modern Ukraine, whose historic borders are inviolable and worth impoverishing ourselves for), there is something to be taken from it.

[Spikey M]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-63585701

Might move to Ukraine tbh

[Shindig]

Mr Place, a British 29-year-old PhD student and content writer, and his wife, a 34-year-old Ukrainian working as a content manager

I don't think either of those are real jobs.

[Ben]

The pro-war geezers in Russia are in meltdown over Kherson. Nutjobs like Dugin and Solovyov (that are influential enough to have Putin's ear) are calling for incompetent commanders to be shot by firing squad and for Putin to enact full war mobilisation of the population and economy. :cab:

[Spikey M]

I don't think either of those are real jobs.

He's paid to write stuff and she's just an editor, no?

[Shindig]

English teacher turned PhD student moving back to a warzone because they're skint? Paid in exposure at best.

EDIT: His linkedin is a freelancer hell. His PhD is in political science.

[Lofty]

You can teach English as a foreign language even if you are a borderline retard from what I can tell, you don't need a relevant degree. Half the people I know who have done it wouldn't know the difference between a noun and a verb.

[Ben]

I know a pit yakka from Ashington who went to China to do that. I'd love to hear the little Chinese kids speaking that brand of English. :D

[Shindig]

Alreet in a Chinese accent sounds like torture for speaker and listener alike.

[Magic]

Been nice knowing you all.

[Waffdon]

1592588781248745474

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Well now things are really going to pick up.

[Lewis]

It's probably bits of a shot down one, or a botched attempt to shoot one down.

[Magic]

The names of those two people will go down in history like Franz Ferdinand.

[Ben]

Sky News are busy asking Carlos Quieroz if he’s alright representing a nation that represses women so don’t worry about it.

[Lewis]

Why does nobody ask anyone on the City payroll that?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The names of those two people will go down in history like Franz Ferdinand.

They never reached the heights of their first album.

[Ben]

Jokes aside, Russia will have to deny this. There'll be lots of information about it being Ukrainian air defences that did it.

[niko_cee]

How long does a conventional war between 'The West' and Russia last then?

[Spikey M]

Not very long at all.

Unless China get involved. Then, well, let's just hope they don't.

[Magic]

Not very long at all.

Unless China get involved. Then, well, let's just hope they don't.

US could obliterate the entire world so let's not panic.

[Bam]

Xi to Putin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5y6C-v5-j0&t=3s

[Ben]

Xi won't go anywhere near it, unless he wants his third term to be a short one. I can't see this escalating, Russia are struggling against Ukraine alone and have apparently depleted their missile inventory massively with today's strikes (they're already having to depend on Iran heavily). Militarily they make little sense but for them it was all about optics on the backdrop of G20 and it's blown up in their face because they've got untrained conscripts operating outdated missile systems.

[Jimmy Floyd]

China would get taken to pieces in a conventional war too, as they well know.

It'll probably end up being a Ukrainian missile, or a gas explosion caused by the dreadful Polish diet.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Kotlet schabowy, kapusta and ziemniaki is a well balanced meal.

[Bernanke]

Bigos. :drool:

[Spikey M]

What if this missile strike was in retaliation to Phonics banning one of Vlads Iranian allies?

[Spikey M]

1592610774668939264?t=nnWF5ZQerL48WeO7HaSwRA&s=19

Well done Phonics, you fucking prick.

[Lewis]

Ayatoll'dya it was a bad idea.

[Spikey M]

A Fatwa good that's done us.

[Shindig]

Why's it always us? :D

[Ben]

Because we keep telling them to "go away" on the international stage. :D

[Don]

It wasn't a Ukranian missile? Gonna be a tough one to swallow this for the soft shite brigade. Hopefully it was a direct bit of western-supplied weaponry that caused it too.


Russia are struggling against Ukraine alone

Lolololol, you went a bit early with your boner it seems but this line is also good. Over £100bn of support from about 50 countries to a population of 50m and I'm not even sure that includes all the sanctions.

The fuckers got pummelled so hard yesterday Moldova lost power for a bit. Inject it.

[Ben]

Indirect support and direct support are two completely different worlds.

[Kikó]

Maybe you should go and live in Iran if you're so into authoritarian regimes Taz?

[Don]

phonics

[Kikó]

You're worse than that hook guy.

[Bernanke]

1592664367203778561

This seems like a plausible incompetence explanation, otherwise it's a ridiculous coincidence.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That sounds a bit Four Seasons Total Landscaping, i.e. too neat to be true.

[Yevrah]

The way in which the West are bending over backwards to disown this being a Russian missile is tragic.

They’re on their knees, right? FINISH THEM.

[Spikey M]

Nato going in because a farmer got blown off his tractor would be a ridiculous overreaction, even if that's what should happen by the terms of the treaty.

Zelensky is doing his best to make it seem like Paris was nuked though, bless 'im.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Baltic nations seem to be bang up for it. Good to know we can count on them to wear the tin hats when we do eventually have to fight Russia, while we and the French do our bit by sending them 1,000 pairs of wellies and a tanker full of mayonnaise for their sandwiches.

[Waffdon]

Mayonnaise really is gods work.

[Yevrah]

Nato going in because a farmer got blown off his tractor would be a ridiculous overreaction, even if that's what should happen by the terms of the treaty.

We just need to end this shitshow now, it's gone on long enough, the human cost is still massive and the economy of Europe is fucked as a result - enough is enough.

If Putin's not going to nuke Ukraine then the logic should follow that he's not going to nuke us, so let's have it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you appease him now with a nice chunk of Ukraine he'll just go again in a few years. He needs knocking off his horse.

[Manc]

enough is enough.

Is enough.

[Lofty]

I thought he was dying which is why he carries the apparatus around with him to retrieve his turds from the bog so they can't be analysed.

[Boydy]

I thought he was dying which is why he carries the apparatus around with him to retrieve his turds from the bog so they can't be analysed.
What? :lol:

[Yevrah]

He well may be, but people who're dying can live on for ages, so I'd rather not wait for that to actually happen.

We say we care, we say the sacrifices we're making are worth it, so let's just go one step further and start shooting their shitty planes out of the sky and twatting them on the ground in the areas they still occupy.

[Boydy]

Maybe we should invade them and take all their gas while we're at it.

[Yevrah]

Maybe we should invade them and take all their gas while we're at it.

If it wasn't such a difficult place to invade and the nuclear threat wasn't there I'm sure we'd have used what's happened already as an excuse to do so.

I'm just thoroughly sick of the bunting cycle where Russia do something shit, the West all have a celebratory wank, we're still in a war and the cycle repeats. Have some balls and end this shitshow - it's about as clear a moral example to justifiably do so as will ever be seen.

[Ben]

Waiting for Putin to pop his clogs is a dangerous tactic. His main supporters are split pretty much 50-50 between wanting to negotiate their way out of it and keep some occupied land, or go full war economy and smash Ukraine into the Stone Age and not stop until the whole country is theirs. Even though Putin seems a complete warhawk, he's probably stuck in the middle somewhere. There's a couple of lunatics there who could step in to his place and turn up the heat even more.

[Spikey M]

It was Yevs birthday yesterday and he's now above the maximum conscription age.

[Lewis]

It's probably bits of a shot down one, or a botched attempt to shoot one down.

Most obvious thing in the world, so let's all just ignore Ukraine immediately claiming otherwise and demanding we escalate on their behalf.

[Yevrah]

It was Yevs birthday yesterday and he's now above the maximum conscription age.

I think I already was. :D

[Ben]

Slapping Ukraine down over them jumping the gun will amount to it being painted as the West momentarily being on Team Russia, so that isn't happening.

On a kind of related note, I read this morning that Russia have done a lot of groundwork in strongarming the International Atomic Energy Agency into imminently accepting Russian control over the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, which de facto legitimises their control over occupied areas of Ukraine. Pretty clever. You'd think Ukraine will want to focus on offensives in that region next rather than bolstering the East but it might result in boom.

[Don]

"Russia bears responsibility for what happened in Poland yesterday"

:lol:

Where's your fucking Benny Hill music compilations now, you laughable cretins.

[Ben]

Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated on November 21 that there are no immediate nuclear safety and security concerns and that the integrity of all six nuclear reactors and the spent and fresh fuel storage facilities remain uncompromised despite the intense shelling. Russia and Ukraine both accused the other of conducting the artillery strikes on the ZNPP on November 20 and 21. One Russian milblogger referenced a video of the shelling taken by Chechen forces and stated that it appeared the shelling came from positions in Russian-controlled territory south of the ZNPP, not Ukrainian-controlled territory north of the ZNPP.

:cab:

The IAEA refused to recognise Russian control over the ZNPP so now they're shelling their own men inside the plant in order to make it happen. This will end well.

[Don]

Ukraine comitting war crimes by shooting surrendering soldiers at point-blank and then excusing it with "but Russia have committed more".

All been a bit quiet on the western media sites on the missile on Polish territory business too :sherlock:

[Kikó]

Is this the video of the surrendering Russian soldiers followed by one of them coming out all guns blazing? I'm not sure that's a great example of 'war crimes'.

[Don]

There's active Ukranian soldiers who fight for their cause with less determination than you. Your gallantry will not go unrecognised, Kiko, god bless you.

[Spikey M]

:yawn:

[Lewis]

One bloke came out shooting, so they had no option to shoot the ten blokes that had already surrendered execution style. Completely normal.

[niko_cee]

I'm sure that image was first shared as evidence of some sort of mortar strike, which seemed odd at the time seeing as the bodies were all so neatly lined up. Will probably turn out it's Russians executing their own for desertion.

[Ben]

Not saying it was the Russians executing their own, but they did that very thing a few weeks ago. With a sledgehammer no less.

[Magic]

One bloke came out shooting, so they had no option to shoot the ten blokes that had already surrendered execution style. Completely normal.

I'd say that's fair enough. The others could go rogue too. Clear threat to life.

[John Arne]

Russian diplomacy needs some work.

1595980281223192578

[Ben]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/z5bse3/left_verdun_france_1917_right_bakhmut_ukraine_2022/

Left: Verdun Passchendaele, 1917. Right: Bakhmut, 2022.

[Lewis]

Ursula von der Leyen said earlier that Ukraine has had over 100000 killed, which was a number doing the rounds a few months ago, but the footage was later removed and her office clarified that she meant killed and wounded. Ukraine initially refused to discuss it, because casualties are sensitive information, but some spokesman has since come out and said the number of dead is about 10000.

As of today the 'Kiev Independent' claims that Russia has lost 88880 men, which, combined with the usual amount of wounded, would mean that Russia barely has any of its initial invasion force left. Given that Ukraine apparently has the most effective fighting force in the history of industrial warfare (if not any form of warfare), shouldn't they be getting this over quick before Russia gets all of its reserves up to the front and finishes their electricity off?

[Ben]

As always, the true numbers will lie between what both sides are saying they are.

[Kikó]

I hope Russia wins for Lewis. It'll make his Christmas.

[Ben]

Vladimir Putin believes Russia is not to blame for the war in Ukraine, adding both countries are "sharing a tragedy".

During a televised address with senior military officials, the Russian president said he continued to see Ukraine as a "brotherly nation".

:rasta:

[Spikey M]

I'd say that's the start of a climb down, but you just never know with this cunt.

[Don]

More like softening the blow when the dirty nazis and enablers have to concede defeat.

[Dquincy]

:rasta:
From my research, I think the blame should be shared.

[Lewis]

I found the BBC article helpful. 'The theory, which implies Western expansion is the cause, has been repeatedly dismissed outside Russia'. Oh, well. That's that then.

[Ben]

From my research, I think the blame should be shared.

Indeed, but it’s nowhere near 50:50.

[niko_cee]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64101437


Reports in Russian media said Mr Antov, 65, had fallen from a window at the hotel in the city of Rayagada on Sunday. Another member of his four-strong Russian group, Vladimir Budanov, died at the hotel on Friday.

Superintendent Vivekananda Sharma of Odisha police said Mr Budanov was found to have suffered a stroke while his friend "was depressed after his death and he too died". The Russian consul in Kolkata, Alexei Idamkin, told the Tass news agency that police did not see a "criminal element in these tragic events".

:harold:

[Lewis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRq0zKZ7jU4

Slava Ukraini!

[Yevrah]

This is never going to end.


Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out giving up any of his country's territory in a potential peace deal with Russia.

He does, however, believe Ukraine's forces can keep resisting Russia's advance until they are able to launch a counter-offensive - although he repeated his calls for more military aid from the West.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64662184

We (the West) need to go in or fuck it off.

[Lewis]

A year on, would a difficult compromise - Donbass autonomy and non-aligned status for Ukraine - really have been that onerous?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yes. Give that to Putin and he'll just keep coming back for more.

[Lewis]

The Baltic countries are NATO, and Poland is NATO. He was quite content for Ukraine not to be part of Russia before, so what 'more' is he coming back for once the existential protecting ethnic Russians and NATO angles are neutralised?

[John Arne]

The Baltic countries are NATO, and Poland is NATO. He was quite content for Ukraine not to be part of Russia before, so what 'more' is he coming back for once the existential protecting ethnic Russians and NATO angles are neutralised?

I know nothing about this, but wasn't that the argument made when he took Crimea? Give it to them, then move on with everything, they won't come back....

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Baltic countries are NATO, and Poland is NATO. He was quite content for Ukraine not to be part of Russia before, so what 'more' is he coming back for once the existential protecting ethnic Russians and NATO angles are neutralised?

He's literally annexed three further regions other than the Donbass (although he doesn't control them at present).

[Lofty]

He wants to die in a resurgent Soviet Union, obviously.

[Boydy]

Shame he hasn't gone about resurrecting it politically.

[Shindig]

Non-cash for all!

[Spikey M]

Shame he hasn't gone about resurrecting it politically.

Yeah, he should have done it the old school way. Gulags and gruel. Proper, vintage Communism.

[Lewis]

I know nothing about this, but wasn't that the argument made when he took Crimea? Give it to them, then move on with everything, they won't come back....


He's literally annexed three further regions other than the Donbass (although he doesn't control them at present).

It has all escalated, in part because the Western politicians who he had previously done deals with have been lining up to say 'lol we only wanted to buy Ukraine time', thereby proving to Russian ears that their persecution complex is valid and that there is only one way to resolve this. We have spent nine years pushing the most confrontational approach possible based on the impossibility of them invading another country, and now we act like all of this was inevitable.

Ukraine has lost three million refugees to Russia who won't be living in Ukraine again; another three million to the European Union who won't be coming back probably ever; half the country is in bits; the other half can't keep the lights on; its politics will be dominated by maniacs for the rest of time; and their battlefield casualties are horrendous. And that's as good as it gets if Russia leaves today. There is still the small matter of twenty per cent of its territory being nabbed as we speak, and, if their armed forces completely collapse because they can't mobilise enough seventeen year olds or Shanghai any more men off the street, potentially ending up as a landlocked failed state (in fairness, at that stage they might as well fight to the death). Elsewhere, Europe has spent a trillion quid on energy subsidies thus far; China is building pipelines for all of that cheap gas going begging; and any idea of an independent European defence capacity has been set back thirty years. It's hard to see how there wasn't a million different versions of events that ended up better than this for everybody.

[Spikey M]

But we had no choice Lewis. We couldn't just ignore it like we have every other time Russia invaded a neighbour (including Ukraine).

[Yevrah]

It really does feel like we're sleep walking into WW3.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64695042


Mr Blinken told CBS News that Chinese companies were already providing "non-lethal support" to Russia - and new information suggested Beijing could provide "lethal support".

This escalation would mean "serious consequences" for China, he warned.

And serious consequences. Rofl.

[Ben]

Can’t see China ever openly supporting Russia. They have access to their gas now already and their economy is far too reliant on the West (domestically it's in the toilet).

[Lewis]

The Chinese have more to gain than lose helping Russia force a settlement in their favour, since their heightened trade relations depend on 1) Russia remaining a stable and intact autocracy; and 2) Russia never having normal relations with Europe ever again. In the mentalist wet dream where Russia loses and becomes a ward of the State Department, it eventually turns away from China. Plus they might as well do something bold to let the world know that they get to have a say in these sort of things now. There isn't much point trying to counter the 'Rule-Based Order' if the Americans threatening to withhold Happy Meals throws you off course.

[niko_cee]

Am I being a bit dense or is a bit much being made of plucky Joe B slumming it in to 'Keev' on the overnight train, like it's all clearly a very stage managed thing for whatever reasons you want to ascribe to it? I mean, as the President of the United States of America, I'm pretty sure you could publish your itinerary to all state actors and be pretty damn sure no one was going to be trying to shoot down your helicopter. Unless I guess they were afraid of the Ukrainian air defences going all Maverick end scene on them.

[Don]

I got that impression, so much so I thought his return flight being downed by a stray missile would be a convenient coincidence.

[Shindig]

Yes, a red, white and blue liveried plane has never been shot down over Ukraine before.

[niko_cee]

Also very much looking forward to the announcement of shitty peace deal later in the week. We know you have a choice in peace deals etc.

[Ben]

I don't see how a peace deal will be struck considering Biden turned up with $500m worth of weapons.

[niko_cee]

It won't be, but that's a strange way of looking at it.

I don't see how a peace deal will be struck when Russia insists on occupying 20% of Ukraine's territory with no intention of returning it.

[Ben]

Well there's that as well obviously but I was coming from the point that there's been murmurs of Western countries pressuring Zelenskyi into making a deal, but this contradicts that.

[Ben]

1629045914139602945

[Lofty]

See the mercenary is suggesting they've been stitched up by Moscow :D

[Ben]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370

:harold:

[Don]

This was on News at Ten and was quite fun: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65615184

[Ben]

Great stuff.

Also I've seen the Russian anti-Putin paras have taken a few villages in Russian territory. That could be spicy.

[Ben]

Discussions regarding reported Russian losses in Bakhmut have saturated the pro-war information space and are drowning out any remaining positive informational effect resulting from the city’s capture. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed during an interview with Russian political strategist Konstantin Dolgov on May 23 that Wagner lost 10,000 convict recruits and 10,000 full-time professional Wagner fighters killed in action over the course of the Battle for Bakhmut.

That's insane.

The "city" is flattened and is of little strategic value, even if it wasn't bombed to shit. I'm yet to fully understand why both sides put so much collateral into that place.

[Lewis]

It sits at the intersection of the roads to the northern end of the province, and the western end, which allows them to move out from Donetsk. That then puts them on the roads to Kharkov and Dnipro, which, if they are going for frozen conflict status, are probably necessary to shorten the contact line along another main road.

[niko_cee]

Dig up!

[niko_cee]

At least Russia seem to have adopted your tactics now Lewis, so that's something.

Unless, of course, one believes that Ukraine blew up a vital piece of their own infrastructure/route into the region as some sort of 5D chess move.

[Ben]

I read something months ago (I might have even posted it here) that the Russians were planning to blow up dams in occupied Kherson.

[Lewis]

It sounds like it just collapsed. It had taken a kicking recently, and more than likely hadn't been maintained since Soviet times, so the higher than normal water just broke it. Neither side derives any military benefits from blowing it up, and it doesn't help the Crimean water supply.

[Don]

Would be disgraceful if evidence came out of intentional attacks on energy infrastructure. One could say it would almost be war crime territory.

[Kikó]

It sounds like it just collapsed. It had taken a kicking recently, and more than likely hadn't been maintained since Soviet times, so the higher than normal water just broke it. Neither side derives any military benefits from blowing it up, and it doesn't help the Crimean water supply.

😂

[Ben]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65996531

:eyemouth:

[Yevrah]

At this point the lols are well and truly on us for being anywhere near this nonsense still.

[Kikó]

That opinion still makes zero sense.

[Bernanke]

1672314259907158028

1672318004393025550

Is it actually happening? That first translation is pretty clear cut in wording.

Edit: Claims Wagner forces was targeted by Russian military:

1672323716380778497

[niko_cee]

All part of the plan.

[Bernanke]

https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18102851


After Prigozhin's statements, a case was initiated on incitement to an armed rebellion, according to the NAC.

It's official. :drool:

[Lewis]

There is usually some pro wrestling psychology angle to his outbursts, but lol if he has really gone off his nut and forgotten that he's just a frontman.

[phonics]

There is usually some pro wrestling psychology angle to his outbursts, but lol if he has really gone off his nut and forgotten that he's just a frontman.

There is a pro wrestling angle. Unfortunately for him, he don't know it a work when you work a work and work yourself into a shoot, mark.

[Bernanke]

Both Surovikin and deputy head of the GRU publicly calling for Wagner to stand down.

1672359292089913348

[phonics]

I know it was referenced barely a few posts ago but Yevrahs ‘going to plan’ might be up there with that weirdo bird who said Theo Walcott was gonna be world class for awful predictions.

[Yevrah]

I mean, Russia are still in a war, right? A war you were all telling me some farmers were winning a year ago. Why’s it still going on exactly?

[Yevrah]

The West have chucked fucking billions at it as well. Billions upon billions.

[Lewis]

It's actually trillions when you factor in energy support, recession-induced borrowing, and all of the indirect costs falling on the plebs through inflation and rate rises. And it didn't even get Ben Wallace the NATO job lmao.

[phonics]

I mean, Russia are still in a war, right? A war you were all telling me some farmers were winning a year ago. Why’s it still going on exactly?

What a massive spin zone. Pathetic.

[phonics]

It's actually trillions when you factor in energy support, recession-induced borrowing, and all of the indirect costs falling on the plebs through inflation and rate rises. And it didn't even get Ben Wallace the NATO job lmao.

I’d love you to apply this math to every economic decision made in the 30 something years you’ve been alive when the people you agree with have been in control for the majority.

[Yevrah]

Why does it make any sense that we’re still doing this? Putin’s not going to give up, as I called so over a year ago (since mis-characterised as “the going to plan” meme) and all the while people are still dying and the economy of the entire first World is utterly fucked.

@Kiko, if I ballsed the quote up.

[phonics]

You realise we’ve doing exactly the same thing for Saudi Arabia to lose a war against literal farmers in Yemen for 3 times as long right?

[Lewis]

I’d love you to apply this math to every economic decision made in the 30 something years you’ve been alive when the people you agree with have been in control for the majority.

I'm pretty sure there aren't any, but can you find me some posts where I commend the 'people I agree with' and the sterling job they've done over the last thirty years?

[phonics]

You voting for them.

[Yevrah]

What a massive spin zone. Pathetic.

Or my prediction was actually bang on. Again, there is still very much a war happening that is showing absolutely no signs of stopping.

[phonics]

Russias plan was to get stuck in a deadlock for multiple years? That was the plan?

[Shindig]

I can't imagine this Europe just leaving Russia and Ukraine to it.

[Yevrah]

Russias plan was to get stuck in a deadlock for multiple years? That was the plan?

I never actually said that their plan was to be a bit shit, more that they won’t be remotely arsed about casualties and being in it for the long haul. Oh look…

[Yevrah]

But if we’re talking about plans, and the lack of them, what is ours exactly? We do this forever?

[Jimmy Floyd]

No mercenary army has ever turned on the mother country before thinking it could do a better job, so this has to go down as really terrible luck.

[mikem]

War would likely still be going on. Syrian rebels far less well funded are still holding out, same in Yemen, and how long did fighting keep going in Iraq.

Sure, Russia would eventually level the whole place but the Ukraine is big and it would have taken them a while. How long did it take them in Chechnya?

So, sorry you didn’t get to watch the footage of each city being slowly leveled. That clearly is what you would have preferred.

[Yevrah]

It’s shit, there’s no doubt about that, but it’s yet another shit thing that’s happened to Russia in a long list of them that still won’t end the war. And until that happens, why are we continually dry humping the bunting?

[Yevrah]

So, sorry you didn’t get to watch the footage of each city being slowly leveled. That clearly is what you would have preferred.

Me? If so, how on earth do you come to that conclusion?

As I’ve said previously in the thread, I’m all for supporting Ukraine, just for the love of God do it properly and end this nonsense.

[Lewis]

Ukraine would have collapsed last summer without Western support, the price for which is to fight to the last Ukrainian because we didn't plan beyond trying to sanction a commodities superpower into the ground and hoping that they didn't want it as much as they made very clear that they did.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It’s shit, there’s no doubt about that, but it’s yet another shit thing that’s happened to Russia in a long list of them that still won’t end the war. And until that happens, why are we continually dry humping the bunting?

Because ending the war with an outcome favourable to Russia will in fact prolong it. Hence the fighting, as in every war ever.

[mikem]

Maybe, but these things typically drag out longer than the initiator wants. Again, see Iraq, Afghanistan, Aleppo, Chechnya, or just about anywhere.

Putin didn’t signal that he was taking a piece. He signaled extinction on a cultural / national level. So someone would still be fighting.

And that form of Ukrainians would have adapted the same negotiating tactics that pretty much everyone has used since Arafat: piles of bodies. Because it is all you have to negotiate with when someone says “I’ll have all that” and it is also a strategy to negotiate with both your foe and your allies. It is a strategy that lasts as long as Ukrainians are willing to provide the bodies.

[mikem]

@ Yev Policymakers are not likely to support Ukraine in a way where tail risks are either too high or too unknown. The tail risks are too great.

This is what there is.

[Kikó]

The point mikem makes about genocide is important. This isn't just about territory but about cultural annihilation. We should be supporting Ukraine.

Wagner troops have now attacked/taken Rostov.

[Yevrah]

We’re not really that fussed about Ukrainians dying though, are we? If we were we’d have gone in and stopped it all in 5 minutes months ago.

It’s just yet another example of us getting involved in some far flung conflict to protect our perceived interests, merely packaged a bit better this time.

[Yevrah]

Actually I’m being unfair, it’s been packaged incredibly well.

[Spikey M]

Shup up Yev, just eat your £5 Mars Bar and enjoy your righteous poverty.

[Boydy]

Coup time :eyemouth:

[niko_cee]

This all sounds pretty mental.

Funny if was all some massive rope-a-dope type manoeuvre to try and draw a major Ukrainian offensive.

[Don]

1672514004026007553

Quality :D

[Magic]

The Chechens backing Putin. :drool:

[niko_cee]

Just need some footage of a wagner stinger taking down one of these Russian helicopters now.

[Bernanke]

Just need some footage of a wagner stinger taking down one of these Russian helicopters now.

Almost:

1672557100969361409

Wagner is in control of way more powerful anti air capabilities than manpads.

[niko_cee]

:drool:

Not that these nutters taking over is going to be a good thing.

[Don]

The baldie will be dead or in prison within the week, calm your yellow and blue boners.

[Disco]

The coup will just put Bladimir Butin on the throne and it will be business as usual.

[niko_cee]

Baldimir, surely?

Anyway, sounds like Baldimir's Boys are rolling in to Red Square over the weekend.

[Disco]

Slapheadovich and his Chechen mad lads are crazy if they think he's going to be in charge, is it not more likely that he's simply been paid off and switched sides to whichever waxwork will take over from Putin?

[Bernanke]

Well that was anti-climactic.

[Shindig]

Russian military coups always disappoint.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

What a little pussy.

[Lewis]

You need to give everything twenty-four hours due to the amount of shit that flies around.

[7om]

That Prigozhin will probably be in a “car accident” by the end of the weekend.

[Spikey M]

He's easily done enough to get Novichok'd already, so I don't see the point in backing off now. It would have been far quicker to die in the inevitable slaughter they would have faced.

[niko_cee]

That Prigozhin will probably be in a “car accident” by the end of the weekend.

It's worse, he's had to move to Belarus.

[Disco]

Bald fanny, I was looking forward to watching that.

[Giggles]

What reason was given for shitting the bed?

[Yevrah]

What an absolutely bizarre turn of events.

[Giggles]

For the best anyway. For all the 'Putin bad, everything else good' simpletons, we really didn't want this psychopath ending up with his finger on the nuke button.

[Ben]

1673034622286938112

[Ben]

Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square kilometer base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast.

Lukashenko is going to look a right twat when Wagner stage a coup in Belarus. Then they can invade Kyiv from the north.

This is about the most reasonable explanation for whatever went down the other day.

[niko_cee]

24000 square kilometers is bigger than Israel.

[phonics]

Someone explain to me why Ukraine is so desperate to use cluster bombs in a war inside it's own borders?

[Lewis]

Because they appear to be losing.

[Giggles]

Any chance Russia could drag them all back from here too?

[Bernanke]

Someone explain to me why Ukraine is so desperate to use cluster bombs in a war inside it's own borders?

What difference is it gonna make for the cleanup, really?

1677420995026591747

If it gets them out of their territory faster it might even have a negative effect in total.

[Don]

Nuke the lot, but only after western economic collapse.

[Yevrah]

Because they appear to be losing.

Er, this is not the accepted narrative.

[niko_cee]

It's the Kwasi Kwarteng narrative from big brain up there.

[Spikey M]

What difference is it gonna make for the cleanup, really?

1677420995026591747

If it gets them out of their territory faster it might even have a negative effect in total.

Are we just going to ignore how cute bomblets sounds? :wub:

[Kikó]

Er, this is not the accepted narrative.

Only Russians and Lewis thinks this

[Yevrah]

Maybe. For my money it’s got score draw written all over it. Forever.

[Spikey M]

1678489667115577364?t=JeKMBuevr-92EFnEcpMmxA&s=19

[Disco]

Have the Russians lost the several hundred thousand troops it would require for them to give up? If not then they'll keep grinding away.

[Shindig]

Quarter of a million killed or wounded, according to the UK and Ukraine estimates. 180k from the more modest yanks.

Ukraine are down 130,000 so .... probably worth plodding on.

[Disco]

That's a lot of zinky boys but probably a little over half what it takes to get them to go home.

[Don]

Latest Intelligence Update: The military might of the West is fucked by long grass.

[phonics]

1694397852129153157

Not suspicious at all.

[Spikey M]

He's been up to all sorts of vile shit in Africa by all accounts. Hope it had time to hurt.

[Ben]

Utkin has been offed as well.

But really, why the fuck would you hang around in Russia after trying to overthrow Putin?

[Shindig]

Buddying back up to him might've been his only chance. You can run from Putin but, sooner or later, you've got to go to Zizi's.

[Yevrah]

It wouldn't have mattered where he was, Putin was always going to get him, which he'd have well known.

[Ben]

Putin had every right to get him arrested and imprisoned, even executed, for treason. But no he’s Stalin to the end, brazenly disappearing people in broad daylight. :D

However I’m not sure “offing Russian army generals in Russian civilian airspace in 2023” was in the playbook when he marched on Kyiv last February.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Allegedly.

Let's not have Putin turn his attention to TTH.

[Yevrah]

However I’m not sure “offing Russian army generals in Russian civilian airspace in 2023” was in the playbook when he marched on Kyiv last February.

It wasn't, but I feel compelled to point out that we are very much still in a situation of aggression, which some might even go so far as to describe as a war.