Putin On the Ritz

[Yevrah]

He vastly underestimated the Ukrainians willingness to fight back. It seems from the outside looking in that they were expecting a much easier ride like they got in Donetsk and Luhansk which is ludicrous. The Ukrainians rejected his view for a united people on day one so now it's vengeance. Whatever happens now, Putin has lost. Even as occupiers they'll never have a grip on Ukraine, so at this point it's a case of seeing how many Ukrainians he can take out before they submit.

Again, how do we know he underestimated this. He put 200,000 troops on the border. If he thought he was going to waltz in, why would he have done that?

[Kikó]

So his plan had zero losses in it? If not zero, how many? We don't know what his plan was or how much he cares about the losses so far. I assume we're clinging to them as it helps us deny the cataclysmic economic situation we're heading for.

No idea what argument you're making other than a confused one.

[Magic]

So his plan had zero losses in it? If not zero, how many? We don't know what his plan was or how much he cares about the losses so far. I assume we're clinging to them as it helps us deny the cataclysmic economic situation we're heading for.

Do you know how much £££ it costs to invade and occupy another country? Now imagine doing that when your currency is valueless. They're fucked and we're not even a fortnight in.

[Spikey M]

Zelensky/Ukrainians in general have gone well off message, I know they're getting bombed to shit and people are dying but there must be some cool heads in the room surely.

I've switched off a bit for the sake of my own sanity, but I know he's talking in our parliament today. Are they not just doing the same as we did to try to get the Americans into The World Wars? Churchill went on a tour of America giving speeches iirc.

[Yevrah]

No idea what argument you're making other than a confused one.

It should be pretty clear that I'm saying you, me, everyone else, haven't a clue what his plan was or how many losses he sees as a good result and it's ridiculous that we're pretending we do. And even if we did know and we knew correctly, well, he's not stopping, is he?

[Spikey M]

If the plan was "win at any cost" then Russia are succeeding. If the plan was meant to improve things, then they've failed by every conceivable measure.

[Magic]

It should be pretty clear that I'm saying you, me, everyone else, haven't a clue what his plan was or how many losses he sees as a good result and it's ridiculous that we're pretending we do. And even if we did know and we knew correctly, well, he's not stopping, is he?

No and I suppose that's the important point. You'd imagine he'd be relentless even if they lost every single member of their army. That's how dictators work. Keep on swimming keep on swimming.

[Yevrah]

Do you know how much £££ it costs to invade and occupy another country? Now imagine doing that when your currency is valueless. They're fucked and we're not even a fortnight in.

They are doing that while their currency is valueless, I'm literally watching it happen on the news now.

[Yevrah]

No and I suppose that's the important point. You'd imagine he'd be relentless even if they lost every single member of their army. That's how dictators work. Keep on swimming keep on swimming.

They've not even lost 10% of what they sent over originally, let alone what they have back home.

[Magic]

They are doing that while they're currency is valueless, I'm literally watching it happen on the news now.

With stuff already purchased. It's the replacement and sustaining an army from this point on. They're fucked mate.

[niko_cee]

So his plan had zero losses in it? If not zero, how many? We don't know what his plan was or how much he cares about the losses so far. I assume we're clinging to them as it helps us deny the cataclysmic economic situation we're heading for.

This is asymmetrical though, it isn't mutually assured destruction. It might not be pain free from 'The West's' perspective, but the lasting damage will be one way.

[Magic]

They've not even lost 10% of what they sent over originally, let alone what they have back home.

Which would be catastrophic to us, but not them. Perspective. I'm agreeing with you. All these stats about 'lol that's more than the Yanks lost in 500 years in Afghan lol' are totally irrelevant.

[Ben]

Again, how do we know he underestimated this. He put 200,000 troops on the border. If he thought he was going to waltz in, why would he have done that?

They literally prematurely published a victory article on the 28th. Fair enough, line up your propaganda ready, but for several news outlets to run it means they got the go-ahead from someone higher up who thought it'd be over much quicker.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60562240

[Lewis]

If Ukraine doesn't join NATO then they win. Obviously they don't want Russia falling to bits in the meantime, but anything short of that, including thousands of casualties, and they win.

[Yevrah]

This is asymmetrical though, it isn't mutually assured destruction. It might not be pain free from 'The West's' perspective, but the lasting damage will be one way.

I agree Russia are long term fucked if we continue, but are we really going to? I'm guessing our plan was hope Ukraine hold out long enough to get sanctions to bite enough and Putin to therefore negotiate. Whether he will or not, who knows, but we're already looking at an utterly unsustainable position in terms of fuel and wheat prices and we're not particularly renowned for doing things that screw us over for any length of time unless we absolutely have to.

[Yevrah]

I've switched off a bit for the sake of my own sanity, but I know he's talking in our parliament today. Are they not just doing the same as we did to try to get the Americans into The World Wars? Churchill went on a tour of America giving speeches iirc.

Indeed. I'm genuinely not sure what anyone expects them to do. Zelensky will be dead in weeks so he might as well try anything he can.

[Magic]

If Ukraine doesn't join NATO then they win. Obviously they don't want Russia falling to bits in the meantime, but anything short of that, including thousands of casualties, and they win.

I'm still confused as to how effectively turning every single Ukranian (even pro-Russian ones) against your country forever pretty much overnight helps stop it doing something you don't want it to do?

[Kikó]

I hope they are tried as war criminals when this is over.

1501107562061733888?t=Bp1rrNVEJiJkdn8WRcavAw&s=19

[Magic]

I hope they are tried as war criminals when this is over.

1501107562061733888?t=Bp1rrNVEJiJkdn8WRcavAw&s=19

For some reason and I don't know why whenever 'village' is referenced I always think of it as something in the Jungle Book with a couple of straw huts or something. Need to stop that as it's probably the equivalent of Newport or something.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's because it's dawning on them quickly that without NATO military intervention they're going to lose and are desperately trying anything they can to get that intervention. What else would you expect them to do and how do you see this working out any differently if there were cool heads in the room?

Cool heads would know that NATO aren't going to intervene, and wouldn't use up all their political capital telling them to do so. Instead they'd be pressing for every other kind of assistance and still greater sanctions on Russia.

It's by no means clear that they will lose, and if they do lose, the cost to Russia, and impossibility of maintaining control of the country for any period of time, will make it the most pyrrhic of all victories.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If Ukraine doesn't join NATO then they win. Obviously they don't want Russia falling to bits in the meantime, but anything short of that, including thousands of casualties, and they win.

Why do they care? No one is ever going to attack Russia.

[Yevrah]

Agree the maintaining control bit will be difficult, but it looks like if they didn't realise that before, they have now and have decided to level the whole country as a result.

[Magic]

Agree the maintaining control bit will be difficult, but it looks like if they didn't realise that before, they have now and have decided to level the whole country as a result.

Then it's just a pointless land grab and a border extension of nothing.

[niko_cee]

I agree Russia are long term fucked if we continue, but are we really going to? I'm guessing our plan was hope Ukraine hold out long enough to get sanctions to bite enough and Putin to therefore negotiate. Whether he will or not, who knows, but we're already looking at an utterly unsustainable position in terms of fuel and wheat prices and we're not particularly renowned for doing things that screw us over for any length of time unless we absolutely have to.

The changes are already happening and will continue to do so.

Take Germany for example. They have reversed a long standing 'stealing a living' policy with regards to defence spending [vee can't be trusted to have an army!] and will in all likelihood also attempt to unwind their equally daft but entirely self-serving [to date] energy dependence on Russia [as will much of the EU]. Suddenly 'strategic significance' becomes a major consideration for Western governments, which, perhaps outside of the US, hasn't really been the case in the let's all be friends happy global community era.

[Lewis]

Interesting as well that for all the 'uniting the Western world' stuff, a Europe/Germany that pays for its own defence is ultimately a Europe/Germany that doesn't have to listen to the Americans, and could therefore be pulled away from them.

[Waffdon]

1501162662369103872

1498489491589406722

Are they melted inside that car?

[Magic]

They look pretty comfy considering they just got shelled in the face.

[Ben]

I didn't realise Clive Myrie is still doing in-the-field journalism since taking over on Mastermind. Turns out he's been in Kyiv the last few weeks.

[Disco]

Losing shit loads of hardware and military forces to this level wouldn't have been his plan I'm pretty sure.

As Russian military operations go this has been a pretty good one, people make the assumption that they care about losing personnel and equipment (be it actual casualties, desertion, or simply flogging their stuff off to the locals) when really that's just how they've operated for as long you care to go back. I've not heard of them actually fighting each other yet so it's medals all round so far.

[Ben]

US set to confirm they'll ban Russian oil. Not a big deal for them because they're a net exporter anyway and barely use Russian oil so a) it shouldn't affect global prices that much at all, but b) they're such an influence that other countries are bound to follow suit.

HOWEVER, the bigger news from this is that they're attempting to normalise relations with Venezuela, and their reserves are absolutely vast and will blow Russia out of the market anyway and drop the global price noticeably.

[Disco]

By normalise I assume you mean stop couping and murdering their presidents.

[Ben]

Precisely.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Viva Venezuela! Viva Chavez!

[Magic]

Drop the global price but not for the end customer who will still continue to be raped.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Any chance of us finding massive gas reserves under the Quantocks?

[Lewis]

US set to confirm they'll ban Russian oil. Not a big deal for them because they're a net exporter anyway and barely use Russian oil so a) it shouldn't affect global prices that much at all, but b) they're such an influence that other countries are bound to follow suit.

HOWEVER, the bigger news from this is that they're attempting to normalise relations with Venezuela, and their reserves are absolutely vast and will blow Russia out of the market anyway and drop the global price noticeably.

Aren't they barely able to tap their reserves because their state-run oil company is shit? I think they are also the difficult ones that aren't worth getting unless oil is super expensive, which it currently is, but it makes them both a shit short-term bet and a worse long-term one. The Iranians would be the better ask.

[Ben]

My company is currently tendering on a job in the Lake District and the geology surveys show immense amount of gas. Not sure how that stacks up against our annual usage, but it's there. No doubt we'll contract the mining of the gas out to the Chinese or French.

[Ben]

Aren't they barely able to tap their reserves because their state-run oil company is shit? I think they are also the difficult ones that aren't worth getting unless oil is super expensive, which it currently is, but it makes them both a shit short-term bet and a worse long-term one. The Iranians would be the better ask.

Probably, but I guess from the American's point of view Venezuela are much more likely to be appeased than Iran. Throw a few dollars at them in exchange for fucking off Russia. Venezuela could play a blinder here if they're switched on.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It seems we've all banned Russian oil and gas. What levers do they have in response to that? Cyber attacks?

[Ben]

Russia are cutting themselves off from the external internet on Friday and all the cybersecurity folk are pretty nervous about it.

[Magic]

Russia are cutting themselves off from the external internet on Friday and all the cybersecurity folk are pretty nervous about it.

Quite right. The real targets here will be public services, and we know how utterly shite they are at security.

[Magic]

And this shit washes in information black holes that have been used to this shit since it's inception, but when you take it away from people that had it and know it...that's a whole different ball game.

[-james-]

Russia are cutting themselves off from the external internet on Friday and all the cybersecurity folk are pretty nervous about it.

What does this mean in practice? Presumably the average Russian can't get on Twitter, do the rest of us lose Yandex? What about VPNs? Can GCHQ no longer fuck with them?

[Magic]

What does this mean in practice? Presumably the average Russian can't get on Twitter, do the rest of us lose Yandex? What about VPNs? Can GCHQ no longer fuck with them?

It'll be a closed system, so nothing in or out.

[Ben]

Basically all websites are required to move to Russian DNS servers so it'll be hard to keep any tabs on them.

[Magic]

This is an absolute fucking disaster btw for all those Russian companies using the likes of Microsoft, Apple, any sort of software developed outside of Russia, the cloud, fucking hell. Nightmare.

[Magic]

Basically all websites are required to move to Russian DNS servers so it'll be hard to keep any tabs on them.

I read it as a hard disconnect?

[Ben]

We have offices in Russia (including IT security lol) so fuck knows what it means for them.

It's not a great move for Russians either so there's some doubt still that they'll actually go through with it.

[Magic]

PutinOS.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The whole of the last two weeks can be filed under 'not a great move for Russians', though tbh it's hard to think of anything in the last 400 years that has really been in their interests.

[Kikó]

How do you know this isn't what Putin wanted?

[niko_cee]

:D

It does feel as if someone will be along shortly to trot out that line.

[Jimmy Floyd]

How do you know this isn't what Putin wanted?

He may well have done, but if so then it's very hard to see what his actual aims are.

[Kikó]

You're not in his mind like me.

In bombing hospital news:
1501218612954255370?t=GsQbi2IiFICg20DlGHQohQ&s=19

[Magic]

All these shitty old cars are starting to remind me of the middle east. Changing my FB frame back to 'I've had my third jab'.

[Shindig]

That's the thing that really strikes me about Eastern Europe. So much of the infrastructure is old and knackered. Like all the money went to Moscow and everyone else has to deal with 1950's train carriages and Ladas.

[Spikey M]

1501272319192412162?t=QKAZhxTiURP5w6x9rU0stA&s=19

[Ben]

Poland and Russia is one hell of a rivalry.

[niko_cee]

When they say 'all of' how many are we talking here?

I saw the other day the US [and others] were going to bung them a bunch of F-16s if they did.

Sort of taking proxy wars to the next level.

[Spikey M]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Air_Force

23

[Magic]

This is like giving a spastic loads of baseball bat's, knuckle dusters etc to do the school bully in.

[Kikó]

They've given them to Ukraine.

[Giggles]

Where does the US come into it? Is it just because they’re the boss of NATO so they have to go through them instead of is just being ‘Poland gives jets to Ukraine’.

[Shindig]

I figure they're giving it through the US to avoid the Nato involvement. Like a money laundering scheme for military equipment.

[Spikey M]

Fuck knows, that confused me too.

[niko_cee]

I figure they're giving it through the US to avoid the Nato involvement. Like a money laundering scheme for military equipment.

Avoid NATO involvement?

:saywhat:


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Air_Force

23

I have no idea if that is a lot. It doesn't sound it. Probably get shot down straight away.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Poland :cool:

[Disco]

When they say 'all of' how many are we talking here?

I saw the other day the US [and others] were going to bung them a bunch of F-16s if they did.

Sort of taking proxy wars to the next level.

To come full circle (again) the US would need to invade Poland and blow up all the stuff they sold them.

[Waffdon]

Where does the US come into it? Is it just because they’re the boss of NATO so they have to go through them instead of is just being ‘Poland gives jets to Ukraine’.

Poland cannot do it directly, as it would be act of war. So it goes to US, they sell it to private company as "trash" and that company, privately, sells them very cheap to Ukraine. Documents are clear, Russia cannot complain, everyone have clean hands

[Giggles]

Poland cannot do it directly, as it would be act of war. So it goes to US, they sell it to private company as "trash" and that company, privately, sells them very cheap to Ukraine. Documents are clear, Russia cannot complain, everyone have clean hands

But do Russia really care how it looks when everyone knows? They’re bombing hospitals and stuff after all. Are these some of those “rules” again?

[Kikó]

Such a pantomime.

[Lewis]

It's more that Poland expects cheap American replacements for them. It's a decent trade for them, but Russia can just cruise missile the few remaining Ukrainian airfields now.

[Magic]

Poland cannot do it directly, as it would be act of war. So it goes to US, they sell it to private company as "trash" and that company, privately, sells them very cheap to Ukraine. Documents are clear, Russia cannot complain, everyone have clean hands

Why you copying and pasting Tweets even down to the bad grammar tho :D

[Shindig]

This all ends with messy new borders being drawn up, doesn't it?

[Waffdon]

Why you copying and pasting Tweets even down to the bad grammar tho :D

:D

Trying to help the old dear out that couldn’t read replies

[Don]

Buzzin for this Kiyv siege. It's like the Age of Empires/Cossacks LAN games when we used to assembled armies for hours and then agree to commence battle. If only Eastern Europe had enough of a virgin population as the West, we really could have been spoiled with top class amateur drone footage.

[Lewis]

The Poles appear to have forgotten to tell the Americans about their plane transfer plan. The stupid cunts can't have been expecting them to fly missions from American bases, so fuck knows what they are all playing at.

[Shindig]

I just imagine them dropping a Mig on some poor bastard's porch. "I'm fuelled. Please give me a home. I can't go on."

[Lewis]

The only way you can do it without giving NATO a problem is transporting them into the country along the ground, but that probably means having to re-assemble them in the Ukraine, which is a nightmare. I think Poland and friends are just bilking the moment for some cheap F-16s.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Why are they announcing any of this shit anyway? Just do it and don't tell anyone.

[niko_cee]

Announcing things is more important [and easier] than doing things.

[Ben]

Fitch reckon Russian debt defaults are imminent.

[Kikó]

Good to see Mahow fully integrated in Ukrainian life.

1501504691053678595?t=8qgenzVNvhPNDQ3govCPUA&s=19

[Ben]

Poland vs. Russia is an all-time rivalry. The signs planted in the coal read "Russian coal fuck off"

1501133002457460741

[Yevrah]

Other than Belarus and a few Serbs, does anyone like Russia? I know the Finns aren't fans either. On Belarus, I can't get Victor Maguire playing their president/senior figure in Chernobyl out of my head.

[Ben]

They've always had sights on an empire through one guise or another for centuries, so it's only natural nobody likes them. I'm not sure the Belarusians as a whole are overly fond, they've just got a Russian puppet as dictator. And the Serbs have always been wacky, but they are pretty much the Russia of the Balkans.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Name an expansionist imperial power that people do like.

[Pen]

Other than Belarus and a few Serbs, does anyone like Russia? I know the Finns aren't fans either. On Belarus, I can't get Victor Maguire playing their president/senior figure in Chernobyl out of my head.

We’ve always had s fear induced relationship with them. They took us from the Swedes for about a hundred years before we got our independence and tried to take us again in WWII. Then we were bent over by them until the Soviet Union collapsed. I’d say our dislike and especially distrust for them is on par with most of Eastern Europe. It’s not just about “not being fans” as they have been the biggest and only threat to us since pretty much forever. Unless of course you meant it that way, but had to respond when the other two countries were fucking Belarus and Serbia.

[Pepe]

Name an expansionist imperial power that people do like.

The U S of A amirite?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Welcome to British understatement. When we say 'I'm not the biggest fan' it means 'I fucking hate that shit from the bottom of my heart'.

[Pen]

Yeah I thought it could’ve been that, but since it was us with Belarus and Serbia I couldn’t let it be 😅

[Yevrah]

Jim's got it. :D

[Magic]

"Not my cup of tea".

I heard this on Married at First Sight by an Aussie bird and not only did it sound wrong she also meant it in a genuine sense rather than the loathe from the bottom of my heart way it should be used.

[Yevrah]

Bombing a children's hospital directly? WW3 just edged a bit closer.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A Maternity ward too.

[Magic]

Bombing a children's hospital directly? WW3 just edged a bit closer.

I don't think so.

[Yevrah]

I don't think so.

You're probably right that it'll make no difference. The lines are now so blurred when it comes to the "rules" it may well happen anyway.

[Don]

An ingratitude of dead gammon children might be a red line tbf.

[Lewis]

1501339523359424512

The Eternal Boomer/Pensioner.

[niko_cee]

Aren't the over 70s just Putin and about 8 other people in Russia?

Shit, Vlad is 69?

[Boydy]

1501339523359424512

The Eternal Boomer/Pensioner.

A lot of that will be down to younger people being more tech savvy and able to get news from outside Russia, won't it?

[Giggles]

A lot of that will be down to younger people being more tech savvy and able to get news from outside Russia, won't it?

Especially when you need a VPN to do so now.

[Giggles]

An ingratitude of dead gammon children might be a red line tbf.

Each one worth a thousand muzzers tbf.

[Ben]

1501339523359424512

The Eternal Boomer/Pensioner.

Nationality makes no difference, all old people are idiots.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If NATO decided to enter the war (let's say by securing the air over evacuation routes), what would Putin do in response? Nuke Warsaw?

[Shindig]

"That's a nice convoy you have, Vlad. Would be a shame if something was to happen to it."

[Ben]

If NATO decided to enter the war (let's say by securing the air over evacuation routes), what would Putin do in response? Nuke Warsaw?

Poland are first up 100%.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My other thought is that no fly zones make fuck all difference to artillery bombardment (which is what's causing most of the pain), so to do anything about that they'd have to actually bomb the Russian positions, which could only be described as a significant escalation.

Ukrainians clearly see it as the west 'leaving them to die', but it's really just a sensible refusal to make a war far bigger.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60684749

A small number of British soldiers have disobeyed orders and may have travelled to Ukraine to fight, the British Army has confirmed.

The soldiers were absent without leave and may have gone to Ukraine "in a personal capacity", the Army said.

"We are actively and strongly encouraging them to return to the UK," a spokesperson added.

It's on.

[Boydy]

Liz Truss now being like "No, I didn't say they could do that" when she clearly did. Idiot.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't understand how Liz Truss and Priti Patel haven't both been sacked. The latter in particular should be instant termination. What are they offering?

[Ben]

Dirt on Boris. Why else would fucking "Gav" Williamson be getting a knighthood? All he's done of note in his entire life is be sacked, twice, for treachery and incompetence.

[Lewis]

A genuine no fly zone would benefit the Russians, but Ukraine (and idiots) seem to think that it means lending them our air forces like we did with the Libyan no fly zone-cum-massive mission creep exercise, in which case it would more than likely be something of ours getting shot down first.

[Lewis]

For all his other achievements, Gavin Williamson leaking that Huawei stuff makes him the most effective Minister of Defence in about fifty years.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm cheering David Lammy on Question Time as he shuts down the hysterical, war-thirsty audience members. This is how bad it's got.

[Shindig]

If they want it so bad, they can fucking fight it.

Hang on, let me fix that.


If they want it so bad, they can fucking fight it.

[Lofty]

In the event of a war, what are Russia's non-nuclear options? Can they pretty much strike anywhere in the UK or just shell coastal cities?

[Magic]

You have to be pretty close to shell, mate. :harold:

[Manc]

You'd imagine Preston will be at the top of Vlad's agenda. Get your bags packed.

[Lewis]

In the event of a war, what are Russia's non-nuclear options? Can they pretty much strike anywhere in the UK or just shell coastal cities?

Not a lot unless they take out our submarines (possible with numbers) and get their creaking bombers through (unlikely). They're generally set up for dealing with their neighbours.

[Shindig]

"Comrade, Tomorrow we take Whitley Bay."

[Boydy]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/britain-fears-russia-could-be-setting-stage-to-use-chemical-weapons

I wonder if that'll cross a line where NATO feel they have to do something?

[Jimmy Floyd]

There shouldn't be a line. The only thing worse than a war is a bigger war.

[Boydy]

I agree but I don't think that's how public opinion is going to work.

Stephen Nolan's BBC1 NI show had another ex-military guy (Colonel Richard Kemp) on tonight who was horny for war as well as last week's General. I hope there are cooler heads in the current military leadership but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Lewis]

Russia officially doesn't have any chemical weapons. That is why they novichok people, because you can (or could) make it out of stuff that fell through the cracks of all the conventions. As for biological weapons, they have always been a lot shiftier about those, but Jesus nobody is mental enough to use them in an actual warzone.

[Boydy]

Were they not supplying the Syrians with them?

[Lewis]

Syria had loads of their own, which the Soviet Union helped them make (and fit in Soviet delivery systems), as their last ditch anti-Israel ploy.

This is all a bit of a strange thing to be talking about all of a sudden. There are biological research facilities out there, which the Russians have made some wacky stuff up about, but at the same time the Americans seem to be overly touchy about them despite it all being above board and benign (which means Russia will know it all anyway, so you're not losing anything valuable). Who knows.

[Ben]

"Comrade, Tomorrow we take Whitley Bay."

If they annex South Shields I wouldn't be sad.

[John Arne]

If they annex South Shields I wouldn't be sad.

Putingrad.

[Lofty]

You have to be pretty close to shell, mate. :harold:

UK waters extend 12 nautical miles and maximum naval artillery range is 20 miles :sorry:

[Magic]

UK waters extend 12 nautical miles and maximum naval artillery range is 20 miles :sorry:

We have a navy, you know...

[Lofty]

Yeah they never leave Russia to be fair: https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2020/december/04/200412-russian-monitoring

Edit: did you stealth edit that because you had a brief, lucid thought? :D Not sure if you've heard about the Royal Navy mate, have a chat with some current/recently serving personnel and see how ready they are.

[Magic]

Yes. :D

You big lanky cunt.

[Lofty]

:D

[Ben]

1501604846230777859

We are so bad.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I will never be able to get my head around this stuff. My only logical thought is they don't want to set a precedent and have to take in a million brown refugees in a future war, but even that's nonsense really.

[Luke Emia]

1501604846230777859

We are so bad.

I think the only good bit of news that has come out of this whole debacle is that Truss and Patel have both been shown up to be the incompetents that anyone with half a brain knew they were. Which should hopefully do for them ever having any chance of running for the leadership.

Truss especially was positioning herself as some kind of Thatcher type and has come out of this looking like a complete fucking helmet.

[Bernanke]

1501852864850898947

Some fantastic tactics here from the Russians. 20 armored vehicles bundled up on a road, with no infantry support.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNei0KcWYAAuFzc?format=jpg&name=medium

[niko_cee]

All part of the plan my boy.

[Yevrah]

All part of the plan my boy.

This narrative is annoying. There's a difference between planning for something to happen and not caring/being deterred if it does. Quite obviously Putin wouldn't have planned to lose troops, but does he care if he has when he has millions more? I very much doubt it and manifestly not enough to stop what he's doing.

Not sure why people struggle with this so much.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He doesn't have millions more. It's not 1943.

[niko_cee]

It's just a hard counter to the contrariness that meets any comment to the effect that maybe things aren't really going to plan for Vlad and co.

Maybe there's nothing that will deter him from his course, but that doesn't mean everything is going JUST AS PLANNED and/or isn't an absolute disaster.

[Yevrah]

He doesn't have millions more. It's not 1943.

Internet tells me 900k active and another two million in reserve. You can absorb a hell of a lot of fuck ups with those numbers.

That said, I’m growing increasingly heartened by the World’s response to this. Humans might actually be doing the right thing for once.

[Giggles]

Some government thick here was on about requesting people to take in refugees here if they don’t get enough volunteers :D Thankfully it was some just Shinner and nobody listens to them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://twitter.com/SputnikATO/status/1502202777518419974

I know you can over-analyse these things, but the guy looks like a wreck.

[Boydy]

1502221544499601411

His own lot will do him in soon if that's true.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You'd think after 20 odd years in the secret service he wouldn't be stupid enough to start imprisoning the secret service, but life is full of surprises. They probably/definitely know far more than he does about the facts of life so I guess tension inevitable.

[7om]

I don’t understand the moves being made against Chelsea. It’s not like Abramovich’s ties to the Kremlin is new information. It’s been well-known ever since he bought the club. So why now, after this long, are we suddenly taking credit cards away and not allowing them to take gate receipts / sell merch?

If he is dirty money then why was he allowed to a) buy the club in the first place, and b) stay in charge for so long?

[Lewis]

It struck me today that the Banter Era could be well and truly crowned by Erdogan winning the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the solution to this.

[Disco]

Well I think he's out of the running for the economics prize.

[Lewis]

Sanctioning rich individuals having spent twenty years legitimising their bent fortunes is a strange one. How 'close to the Kremlin' is he really? He isn't in the government, so, beyond not being daft enough to get himself poisoned or ruined, what is his functional role in any Russian aggro beyond having Russian investments (which, as long as the gas keeps flowing, is hardly incriminating). I think the idea that these people can topple the government is a bit Western-centric. Cut McDonald's off and annoy Jeff Bezos and maybe the United States falls to bits; but Putin, and his actual inner circle of committee waxworks, will lol at any sanction whinges with would you rather be worth zero billion mate?

[Lofty]

Wasn't there some fine print in the sanction paperwork about one of his companies acting in bad faith in Ukraine in the run up to this?

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don’t understand the moves being made against Chelsea. It’s not like Abramovich’s ties to the Kremlin is new information. It’s been well-known ever since he bought the club. So why now, after this long, are we suddenly taking credit cards away and not allowing them to take gate receipts / sell merch?

If he is dirty money then why was he allowed to a) buy the club in the first place, and b) stay in charge for so long?

Politics - but I have no sympathy for Abramovich, Chelsea or the whining fans. S'all in the game, yo.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Sanctioning rich individuals having spent twenty years legitimising their bent fortunes is a strange one. How 'close to the Kremlin' is he really? He isn't in the government, so, beyond not being daft enough to get himself poisoned or ruined, what is his functional role in any Russian aggro beyond having Russian investments (which, as long as the gas keeps flowing, is hardly incriminating). I think the idea that these people can topple the government is a bit Western-centric. Cut McDonald's off and annoy Jeff Bezos and maybe the United States falls to bits; but Putin, and his actual inner circle of committee waxworks, will lol at any sanction whinges with would you rather be worth zero billion mate?

Putin's lot will try to shrug off the West entirely and go to the Chinese model of just being a hard man dictatorship with a docile populace. Whether that's realistic in the Russian case, without China's economic athleticism, is another question.

[phonics]

Alistair Campbell sharing a video where European cities are being bombed is fucking incredible hutzpah. The fact that the same people who did war crimes and a global recession are still running the joint is exactly why we’re in this situation. Revolution please.

[7om]

1502707317590183938

Just saw this thread. Maybe I’m naive, but what in the fuck is this? The son of a former KGB officer in the House of Lords? MI5 specifically told Johnson that giving this guy a peerage would pose a risk to national security so naturally he does it anyway.

[phonics]

It’s almost like Boris Johnson is corrupt? Remember he was late to something because he was on the guys boat?

[Disco]

I'm beginning to suspect that some of these politicians might not be entirely honest.

[Spikey M]

*Phonics saying "it's almost like" to be unnecessarily patronising klaxon*

[Shindig]

I'm sure this is just a problem specific to Boris and not some deep-seated theory about the nature of what power does to cunts.

[Ben]

People need to stop acting shocked about Boris and this generation of Tories and just vote the cunts out. There’s been so much corruption from them that otherwise resignation-worthy shit like this is just another day. Don’t give them the benefit of the doubt over Russia and lockdown parties and whatnot, because the “they’re all the same” line certainly doesn’t wash in this era.

[Magic]

They're getting closer to Poland. It's on.

[Kikó]

There was a really superb piece of television on Sunday Morning. Palin had interviewed Vadym Kastelli 30 and 15 years previously. It was poignant seeing it from the hope of 15 years ago of Ukraine as a democratic, European aligned nation to him waiting to fight in Kiev.

[Kikó]

Pretty interesting Chinese view on what's to come:
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

[Spikey M]

Tldr. Are we all going to die in the next 2 weeks or not?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Hopefully that's what comes to pass, although Xi is such a cunt I can't believe it'll be easy for him to ditch his fellow repressive dictator.

The long and the short of it is that the Western way of life is quite simply better and more attractive to populations than others, and that is always going to win out in the end.

[niko_cee]

Yeah, it'd be a pretty big volte face from 'best buddies forever' a month or so ago, probably has to be done though.

The tldr seems to mainly be that "this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake" by Vald/Russia and the main variable is how bad the outcome of the unwinding is for the rest of the world, ranging from mild inconvenience to the end of humanity.

The threats to target Ukranian supply lines suggests an outcome towards the less good end of the spectrum, although hopefully someone within the apparatus might realise that drawing the west into a nuclear war probably isn't the option with the best outcome for Russia as a whole, which is presumably the end game of Russia attacking something in a NATO country, NATO annihilating the Russian army through conventional means leaving just 'the button' for the deranged-in-chief to press.

[Disco]

If Putin goes then he will be replaced (either immediately or eventually) with someone similar. Russia isn't going away, the approach may change but the goals are not likely to. They also aren't going to lose this war in any practical sense, it looks to be taking longer than they hoped but they will take Kiev. How they come away with a useful result is another question.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The best outcome for all concerned is someone to get rid of Putin at their end, will need a few of them to grow a pair though which isn't the Russian way.

[Ben]

If Putin goes then he will be replaced (either immediately or eventually) with someone similar. Russia isn't going away, the approach may change but the goals are not likely to. They also aren't going to lose this war in any practical sense, it looks to be taking longer than they hoped but they will take Kiev. How they come away with a useful result is another question.

Cult of personality goes a long way with ruthless rulers like Putin. Such tactics wouldn’t be accepted like they are if they were executed by Randomov. If Putin goes, it only gets better.

[Shindig]

They'll be as corrupt as they ever were but Putin also had the KGB links to blackmail and intimidate.

[Ben]

Oh yeah, I'm not intimating it'll be sunshine and rainbows, but they'll be more of a nuisance than a threat.

[Spikey M]

I suppose it would depend on if the overthrowing party are motivated by trying to stop the insanity or simply by seeing an opportunity to seize power for themselves.

I can't think of many coups that have lead to a better state of affairs, mind.

[Disco]

Whoever replaces him simply replaces him, not with the same power base to begin with but it takes a while to get your sycophants around you. It will almost certainly continue to be a sort of police state just with a different policeman in charge.

[Ben]

They're not some backward African nation who can roll on with a military junta, they've got too many fingers in too many pies internationally that the bottom wouldn't just fall out. And I just don't buy that anyone from within Putin's circle that is remotely competent enough to step up is anywhere near as mental.

I wouldn't bet against Navalny to be honest. Putin going the journey might be the catalyst for revolution. I just don't see any of his underlings holding the line; the cult of personality around Putin is so strong that everybody else is a nobody. At the very least they'll be pathetic for a few years until the new guy carves out his own persona, but it may not wash.

[Giggles]

They made Brexit yet not a word about it while every token sanction going is made. Shows how the west will really deal with this.

[Ben]

We will never admit Brexit was/is a mistake until all the over 50's who voted for it are in the ground.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Brexit looking pretty good in the current situation tbh. We would have caused absolute havoc to the EU response if we were still in it, while we've also been free to sneak an absolute shit ton of weapons in there without pissing off the federalists.

[Giggles]

:D I pity you sort.

[Lewis]

Whoever replaces him will be some no-mark waxwork, as he himself was originally. In the event that the entire system falls to pieces and becomes a democracy, then you will get three different Putin-like parties battling it out with the communists, all of whom will pursue their current foreign policies, and then Garry Kasparov polling four per cent off two billion dollars of Western backing.

[Ben]

1503004404911325185

This guy is Bellingcat so either he's neutral/well informed or CIA, but the source is Russian. So fuck knows.

[Shindig]

Slutsky sounds like a WWE gimmick nobody wants.

[Lewis]

A lot of people in the replies taking that to mean Russia losing and backing out.

[Spikey M]

2 weeks ago the Russians said they had no intention of invading and would be moving away from the border. I don't believe a syllable of anything they say.

[Lofty]

Slutsky sounds like a WWE gimmick nobody wants.

Wasn't there a football manager with that surname?

[Ben]

Leonid Slutsky. Did he manage Hull for a brief time?

EDIT: Indeed he did. Lol this is on his Wiki page:


Slutsky has commented on football games many times on Russian TV. His commentating career was disrupted after he repeated the word "Navalny" following his co-commentator's using the term навальный футбол (navalny futbol); the term навальный (navalny) is a term best translated as "overwhelming" or "storming", but is also the surname of opposition politician Alexei Navalny. The incident led to his sacking from the TV pundit role at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Must be a different one, surely.

[Shindig]

Different blokes, sadly. Currently managing Rubin Kazan.


Slutsky, who is Jewish, saw his professional playing career ended aged 19, after he injured his knee falling from a tree while saving a cat.

Chasing pussy ruins another promising career.

[Spikey M]

Would have been amazing if it was the same bloke. :D

[Ben]

Last week Zelensky told Johnson, in one of their daily phone calls, that Ukrainian soldiers shout "God Save the Queen" when they fire the [NLAW].

Christ. :D

[Spikey M]

:D

[Magic]

Do they shout it in broken English? Huge irony given we don't want the fuckers over here.

[Ben]

NLAW in Ukrainian is pronounced "en-lov" which is even weirder considering we don't want to let them in.

[Ben]

One for the CoD enthusiasts.

1503357465701855235

[Don]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/14/ukraine-chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov

“We will show you that Russian practice teaches warfare better than foreign theory and the recommendations of military advisers,”

:drool:

I swore I drank with his identical twin in a Russian whorehouse during the World Cup.

[Ben]

Didn't Putin spend the best part 20 years going after the Chechens? Crazy people.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He has proper AVB vibes about him. Probably never shot a gun.

[Spoonsky]

1503282346778320897

That's so good.

[niko_cee]

:D

Amazing.

But how are they letting the filming happen? Is it a hidden camera? I assume not.

[Jimmy Floyd]

On the China stuff, they're now getting absolutely clattered by Covid of all things (lol) which is going to make life difficult for President Vladimir V. Putin, as the New York Times comically styles him.

[Ben]

1503452567828934660

[Lewis]

1503377390969495559

'New shoes as well. Quite a heel on them.'
'We still on for ten?'

[Shindig]

The people's eyebrow as well. :D

[Ben]

1504002884651868161

:eyemouth:

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm with the imaginary Ukrainians here, there are some toddlers I've met for whom crucifixion is if anything a bit on the lenient side.

[Spikey M]

Judging by the Russians I've encountered on holidays, I can only imagine Russian Toddlers are a special brand of cunt.

[Don]

Brits casting judgements on holiday :happycry:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Vlad's latest rant to camera about fifth columnists and 'gender freedoms' is cracking stuff. Also starting to look really ill.

[Mellberg]

Doesn't have the minerals to be a proper despot, the soft cunt.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Might be a closet case, tbh. Seen stranger.

[Mellberg]

Shortarse and repressed urges for a bit of tackle. Heard that one somewhere before...

[phonics]

Saw him crying about how cancel culture was affecting Russia today. Good shit.

[Kikó]

Funny how all the culture war stuff seems to be uttered by Russia and of course haven't been at all involved in stoking it up for the past years on social media.

[Yevrah]

Arnie being an absolute legend again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60794809

[Boydy]

1503336204720381954
:lol:

[Ben]

Fantastic :D

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

:D

[Yevrah]

Interesting to see that Zelensky is now pushing for peace talks front and centre and has resorted to being super-imposed in front of Kyiv landmarks in his latest video.

I wonder when the Western narrative that "this has gone really badly for Russia" or "Russia have already lost" (where's my roflcopter) will start to change?

[Kikó]

It has gone really badly for Russia no matter how obtusely you dig into your position.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Russia has already lost strategically. If it goes on much longer they'll probably lose militarily. Zelensky may end up making some concessions in a peace treaty, but - like Finland in 1940 - Ukraine will emerge from the episode far greater. Russia will probably never recover its international standing, and it wouldn't surprise me if parts of it started breaking off in the medium to long term.

For the necessary clarity provided by TTH's best geopolitical minds, check post #4 of this thread.

[Yevrah]

It has gone really badly for Russia no matter how obtusely you dig into your position.

Or it's going pretty well, no matter how obtusely you dig into yours. The objective was to take Ukraine, which they're manifestly going to do. It gets more complicated after that admittedly.

The issue I have is that all the analysis, including Jim's post above this one is solely from a western perspective. How we'd evaluate how things are going if it was us doing it. Which is a dumb place to start because we wouldn't be doing it in the first place and crucially, we're not Russia or Russians.

[Lewis]

'Who can we get to front this "Putin is a war criminal campaign"?'
'I don't know, but it has to be somebody with no connection to any sort of offensive war, otherwise Russian propaganda will...'
*puts a line through 'Tony Blair'*
*goes to next name on the list*

[niko_cee]

Thousands dead, economy in ruins, global pariah status, just as planned. Just need the populace to revolt to complete the package.

[Kikó]

niko has pretty much covered it. There's zero objective measure that you can say "Russia have done pretty well". Even your assertion that "Russia has won the war" is still in question as they're still losing hardware across the country and being counter attacked in places (like here (https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734)). There's no western perspective here, it's objectively looking at the numbers and the objectives of the mission.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Or it's going pretty well, no matter how obtusely you dig into yours. The objective was to take Ukraine, which they're manifestly going to do. It gets more complicated after that admittedly.

The issue I have is that all the analysis, including Jim's post above this one is solely from a western perspective. How we'd evaluate how things are going if it was us doing it. Which is a dumb place to start because we wouldn't be doing it in the first place and crucially, we're not Russia or Russians.

They're being brought to their knees by a bunch of farmers. You're giving them far too much credit. What would it take for you to not think Putin is some genius mastermind?

[Yevrah]

Thousands dead, economy in ruins, global pariah status, just as planned. Just need the populace to revolt to complete the package.

All things that we hugely care about as a Western society. But how much do Putin, Russia and Russians? There might be a clue to be had in the indisputable fact that Putin's not stopped this yet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The difference between Russia and the West is that they don't care about ethics/democracy and they like Putin as a tough, strongman leader. As such, he won't be toppled unless something unusual happens. However, that has no relation whatsoever to how well they are doing in the war.

[Kikó]

Russian's aren't some alien race, mothers still care about their children not coming home. They're still protesting on the street despite the jail time they face. People are still fleeing Russia to not be caught in a pariah state. You're giving Putin more credit than he's due. Even Xi is backing off.

[Yevrah]

They're being brought to their knees by a bunch of farmers. You're giving them far too much credit. What would it take for you to not think Putin is some genius mastermind?

Oh I'm not saying he's a genius mastermind, I think the reality is somewhere in the middle of the stance I'm perceived to have and the one the West does. For a start, they're not being brought to their knees - like seriously, how is this even a thing? If they were you wouldn't have every Ukranian MP claiming WW3 has already started and that they need a no fly zone now and more weapons.

[Yevrah]

Russian's aren't some alien race, mothers still care about their children not coming home. They're still protesting on the street despite the jail time they face. People are still fleeing Russia to not be caught in a pariah state. You're giving Putin more credit than he's due. Even Xi is backing off.

Some people are protesting, some people are fleeing, but they have a population of over 140m, a tiny fraction of which are doing those things.

[Lewis]

There is a place between them expecting it to take two days and meeting more resistance than planned, probably because they didn't expect the West to provide as much heavy weaponry as possible lest it start the sort of free-for-all that might blow up in our faces next time the roles are reversed. Same with the sanctions. They will have expected eighty per cent of them, but freezing foreign reserves and nobbling their banking sector are unprecedented, and now the other half of the world is working on establishing their own systems (backed by China) in case they ever need to look after themselves in the face of flighty Western disapproval. That hardly helps down the road. Especially if we lose India to that emerging anti-Western camp. That will nause up China policy for the next fifty years.

[Yevrah]

The difference between Russia and the West is that they don't care about ethics/democracy and they like Putin as a tough, strongman leader. As such, he won't be toppled unless something unusual happens. However, that has no relation whatsoever to how well they are doing in the war.

But neither does judging troop and equipment losses by Western conflict standards. I thought we'd have realised once and for all that looking at things through a Western lense was a bad idea after the shitshow of 'bringing democracy' to the Middle East. Perhaps not.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Troop and equipment losses are a military operations concern, not a concern about how sad generals are about it.

[Kikó]

You're making strawman arguments Yev.

[Lewis]

We lost more men in two months of the Falklands War than we did over eight years in Iraq. Russia has made mistakes (largely corrected), but this is what a war between two actual armies looks like.

[Yevrah]

You're making strawman arguments Yev.

Can't really go anywhere with that. Other than to say...


We lost more men in two months of the Falklands War than we did over eight years in Iraq. Russia has made mistakes (largely corrected), but this is what a war between two actual armies looks like.

...Lewis gets it.

[Kikó]

Lewis is making a different point to your original post. Britain losing more troops in the Falklands doesn't equate to Russia not performing worse than they had hoped.

[Lewis]

If they have seven-thousand dead by now (Ukrainian figures are over-estimates, but that is possible) then that is as many as the Americans took in Afghanistan and Iraq. They were over a longer timeframe, but what did they come away with? If Russia secures its frontier indefinitely then they get a much better return.

[Kikó]

What do you consider their frontier? That long slither connecting to Crimea?

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/C4AB/production/_123474305_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_03_01 _2x640-nc.png

[Disco]

They only need the capital and clearly the amount of resistance was underestimated (or they just lied to Putin because that's what tends to happen), from a purely operational standpoint once the initial push failed they would need a pause to re-supply and re-organise etc. Losses of equipment and troops (and any amount of videos of abandoned vehicles and Russians getting ambushed) doesn't matter to Russia the same way it would to us. For Putin himself I don't see that much threat to his position from the general populace, if you destroy your opposition effectively enough you can do what you like for as long as you want.

[Yevrah]

Lewis is making a different point to your original post. Britain losing more troops in the Falklands doesn't equate to Russia not performing worse than they had hoped.

Lewis is demonstrating that in actual war, which this is, you lose troops. The thousands Russia have lost sounds pretty bad, but is it, is it really and if it is, by what measure?

[Lewis]

What do you consider their frontier? That long slither connecting to Crimea?

Ukrainian neutrality secures their frontier. That and Crimean recognition is the minimum, and the separatist areas would be nice extras (even autonomy for them, which is what the lol 'de-Nazification' demand would cover in practice).

[niko_cee]

Elsewhere I see our mates in the UAE have been pow-wow-ing with Assad. There's even a pic with him having a sit down with the dick who owns City.

[Spikey M]

Elsewhere I see our mates in the UAE have been pow-wow-ing with Assad. There's even a pic with him having a sit down with the dick who owns City.

Incredible. :D

[Spikey M]

I did lol at Gordon Brown being wheeled out for his say on this earlier. Next up Nick Cleggs ironing lady.

[Boydy]

I did lol at Gordon Brown being wheeled out for his say on this earlier. Next up Nick Cleggs ironing lady.

Well you can't have Tony Blair claiming someone else should be in The Hague.

[-james-]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-60810169

Fucking lol at this. Middle class people discover that refugees come in white.

[Don]

:rasta:

[Lewis]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-60808449

'Vlad' might be the most vulnerable of the lot at this particular moment.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Sponsorships, hmmm.