Unless it's lime, lime can fuck off.
Unless it's lime, lime can fuck off.
I can't see a Cruz win. You'd think if it's going to be a contested convention, they'll go for Kasich on the grounds he might actually win the general. Even if Cruz did get through, Clinton would almost certainly beat him.
Imagine all of the other things you could teach me as your new roommateOriginally Posted by Kikó
Can't you just buy it in England?
Who would ever do that to their taste buds? The only thing lime is good for is making lemon-lime flavored drinks and Key Lime Pie, which even then isn't really that good.
What would make anyone think that Kasich has a chance? Sure, he comes off as 'decent' but that is clearly not what the Republicans are looking for. Both Cruz and Trump have a far better chance than him, which the primary results very clearly demonstrate. Isn't that the whole point of a primary anyway?
The primaries are appealing to the base and those who are natural Republicans. Elections are won from the centre, appealing to independents, moderates and swing voters. Trump and Cruz are unlikely to win, whereas Kasich has a record of being solid and moderate. He'll appeal to independents, many of whom won't like Clinton. He's an alternative which the electorate won't consider as being "worse than the other one". He's also from Ohio, securing a key swing state right off the bat.
There was also a poll done recently where Clinton was put against the three Republicans. She thumped Trump, beat Cruz by a good distance but lost out to Kasich. How accurate that is would be hard to say, but Kasich would at least be competitive. Trump can't win, and Cruz is too weird.
What is Cruzface all about? If you hold your hand over one side of his face he looks like he's smiling genially, but if you hold your hand over the other side he's gazing, distraught, anxious, perhaps even crying for help.
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Elections are won by convincing your side to bother showing up. I don't really see Trump and Cruz supporters (which are pretty much everyone) being particularly excited about Kasich. A few independents might like Kasich, but I can see more people who usually don't bother showing up voting for someone like Trump (because for some reason people are voting for Trump.) Truth be told, Clinton looks the clear favorite and that has been the case since before this whole circus even began. It just seems to me that the Republican party deciding to tell all their voters to go fuck themselves and choose bloody Kasich wouldn't be a particularly smart move. I think you only like him because he seems 'decent' next to the others so he is a right winger you can see yourself getting behind, unlike the other two nutters. Clinton would swipe the floor with him, he has absolutely nothing going on for him.
It's not a case of being 'excited'. Republicans hate Clinton. A solid ground operation from Republicans, particularly congressmen and senators in stronghold districts and states, will see him sweep the south and other Republican strongholds. They'll be 'energised' sufficiently to stop Clinton. It gets them a solid foundation in the electoral college, and Kasich then becomes someone that can be 'sold' to the wider electorate as a moderate, supportable candidate.
Your assertion on Trump is also erroneous. He has very low support amongst key demographics, including women, the young and ethnic minorities. It is inconceivable that he wins because of this. He might energise the base of the party and get them to show up, but they're going to win the south and other Republican states anyway. He simply cannot win in the electoral college system.
I also wouldn't vote for a Republican in a US election solely on the basis that the executive nominates Supreme Court justices and the Republicans would inevitably pick pro-life candidates. I don't like abortion, but you can't have a party using this as a litmus test and supporting judges on the basis of imposing their morals on other people. Fuck that. Their party are also full of fascists, so I wouldn't be going near them.
And again - you may think Kasich has nothing going for him, but he is a viable "not Clinton" candidate who takes a key swing state. It's a better foundation than anything Trump or Cruz can offer. Undemocratic it may, but if Trump doesn't win enough delegates then that's just tough shit for him. You should probably read this, which at least has statistics to support my points on Kasich - http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...clinton-221192.
I don't do polls, so fuck that. I simply don't see anything that makes him 'viable' but it is all unimportant anyway, they are losing. Losing while also telling their voters that their opinion is worth fuck all does not seem like a smart move to me, but who knows what passes as smart in the Republican world.
lol
That's pretty good.
The whole Ted Cruz lookalikes is also quite lol.
Well, that's a fairly good reason why we can discount your view on the electability or otherwise of the different candidates.
The system for nominating their presidential candidate says that delegates are free to vote for whoever they want on the second ballot if there's no agreement on the first. In that instance, the party are, in my view, obliged to pick the candidate they think is most likely to win. Trump will have a plurality of votes, not a majority - so even if they picked Trump, you could say that the majority of primary voters didn't want him as the candidate.
Party elders will be looking at a contested convention as a way of positioning them to actually win the election, not an opportunity to appease a base which is increasingly separating itself from mainstream American opinion.
American polls are absolutely pointless, in fairness. Especially at this stage.
Probably, but it's been fairly accurate in terms of identifying where key areas of strength or weakness lie for the candidates in polling. Then again, most of those polls are probably reinforcing what's obvious i.e. ethnic minorities hate Trump.
The whole election is going to boil down to about six states anyway.
California is going to be insane. That's where it's going to be won or lost for the Republicans, and it's the most difficult state to campaign in.
The thing about Kasich is that nobody has really gone after him yet. He's positioning himself as a moderate, and he's being allowed to get away with it, because compared to Cruz, he is one. But his record as governor isn't actually that of a moderate at all.
If he made it to the general election, and the wolves started going for him, his record would get dragged out. And while he's fairly amiable, he's still mostly taken the kind of hard right stances that will leave him open to attacks that resonate with independents. Anti-women, anti-welfare, anti-health, etc. I'm not saying he'd tank totally, but I don't think that any comparative model involving Kasich as he stands now can be used as a serious reference point.
Five thirty-eight made a fairly strong argument that a contested convention goes to Cruz:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ed-convention/
If the convention is done on the first ballot, Trump wins.
If it's done on the second ballot, Cruz wins.
If it goes past the second ballot, I don't think anyone can make any sensible predictions anymore.
I wouldn't disagree, but the relative starting points are important in the context of how the campaign would go. Trump and Cruz are already perceived to be lunatics. Kasich may start to be exposed as he's scrutinised more, but it would take time for the ideas to stick and the Republicans will be going after Clinton just as hard.
You'd struggle to see a way back for Trump / Cruz at the minute.
It certainly could happen, but you can't see Cruz winning the general election. I assume the party leadership would want Kasich, or a compromise non-lunatic candidate if they can get away with it.
Clinton is safe as houses, because she knows exactly what the Republicans are going to throw at her, and they've been throwing it for the last eight years. It's not like they've been holding something back; there's just no ammunition that they haven't been slinging already. It won't be simple for Clinton, but everyone knows exactly what is coming and what to expect.
Kasich would out-perform Cruz and Trump, because he's sane. But he's not a political moderate, and that would come out fairly quickly. That basically means the game changes totally for him when they hit the general election, and renders any comparative polling at this stage pretty much moot.
When two candidates share 85% of the vote going into the convention, one of those candidates is going to walk out with the nomination. If they don't, there will be riots. There might be anyway. It's going to be fun to watch.
The issue with Kasich is whether the party is really ready to blow itself up for a guy 85-90% of people who voted don't want. Trump's base will be livid. They're going to be mad either way of course, but at least Cruz has a solid level of natural party support and has won a significant number of states and delegates.
Trump winning on the first ballot is definitely the cleanest outcome, but failing that it will be really really messy if they don't come back to Cruz. He's winning the delegate selection process easily, which might be more important than whether or not he's actually electable anyway.
I think the ideal outcome is:
Trump missing out by a handful of delegates
Cruz winning easily on the second ballot
Riots in the streets of Cleveland
Trump flipping out and running an independent campaign
Democrats just kind of quietly watching the madness unfold before winning 43 states due to the split vote
There is a very real chance though, that if Trump gets within 20 or so candidates, that the Republican establishment will try and flip it in his favour by quietly having a word with some of the uncommitted delegates (such as those from Pennsylvania). They'll essentially be throwing away the Presidency, but the clearer heads will know by that point that it's gone already, and they'll be laying the groundwork for damage control.
The real question is what a Trump or Cruz candidacy mean for senate elections. If right-wing voters are so turned off by the candidates that they stay home, there are some pretty important races that could swing to the Democrats. The house is so gerrymandered that the Republicans couldn't lose it even if they were trying to, but the senate is the real battleground. I honestly think that the "establishment" have already gotten to this point, and now they're more concerned with trying to figure out how to salvage senate seats.
And get to confirm the leftiest lefty Supreme Court Judge of all time
I've lately been watching a bit of news in the morning before work, and it usually coincides with Hannity being on Fox. He (they) seem to have had a fairly unfriendly stance towards Cruz and Trump but have now softened considerably. Probably trying to get them inside the tent or something.
Hannity is such a gobshite. He had an interview with Cruz this morning where he started bitching that Cruz had gotten upset and angry, but if you listen to the thing, the only one doing that is Hannity himself. Totally threw the toys out of the pram when Cruz (admittedly) wouldn't answer his question about undemocratic voting rules. Then he had a guy who he introduced as his own attorney on to talk about it, and they spent half of the interview flirting with each other about how good their friendship was.
43 states is a low estimate I reckon. Nobody who isn't already a Trump enthusiast is going to break for Trump, plus Hillary is unusually strong in the south for a modern day Democrat.
He could do Walter Mondale numbers.
Enjoyed this. He has such an odd speaking style that I find it kind of mesmerising.
Good night for Trump. Beat his targets by enough that he only needs to stop Cruz from sweeping Indiana to make it very hard for him not to win the nomination.
Sanders fighting hard still, but Clinton should basically be unbeatable from here, even if she narrowly loses a state tonight.
I was confused by that at first because I was looking at the judge and thought he was Ted Cruz.Enjoyed this. He has such an odd speaking style that I find it kind of mesmerising.
the democrats haven't lost California since '88, i doubt that's going to change for a candidate who wants to deport half of their voting base (and their families)
I don't think Trump would win many states at all against Hillary. Maybe the likes of Wyoming and Montana. I could see her winning everything with an east coast.
Dunno about Texas.
These are apparently going to be the two most unpopular nominees of all time, according to polling.
Clinton beats Trump comfortably, assuming something 'game changing' doesn't happen like an indictment.
Cruz is going to announce Fiorina as his running mate. That'll be interesting.
Will it?
Not really, no.
They're denouncing Trump as a liberal, I see. And Fiorina started singing.
Bizarre.
What an incredibly unappealing pair of people (Cruz and Fiorina).
Personally, I will be glad to be out of the country when Clinton-Trump turns into the ugliest election in national history.
One of the debates will be held at my uni. Not too long ago we got an email saying that if the 'campus community' get any tickets, they would be given to students via a lottery. If? What sort of bollocks is this?
Special interests bruh
Good to see the same people dismissing a Trump win for the Republican nominee are dismissing a Trump presidential win; you heard it here first, Trump will win and win resoundingly.
If he does it'll be because he's continues to move to the centre, and even outflanks Hillary to the left on some issues, so how would that sit?
I'd love nothing more than for The Donald to smash Hillary. He just won't. He's too polarising.
Trump smashing Hillary. There's a porno not to make.
I think we should have a wager on that. Winner sets the losers avatar for 6 months.
He couldn't pick anything for you more embarrassing than what you have now, so that's a no lose wager for you.
I reckon if Mert was around a bit more he'd be doing a decent Ginner/Sebo tribute act.
I was unclear. I meant the primary.
Ah, gotcha. Appreciate you taking the time to clarify.
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