After Extra Time:
England (1.64) 2-1 (1.98) Slovakia
IT. IS. COMING. HOME.
Spain
Germany
France
Portugal
Italy
Actually I think [insert team who won't win] could win it!
I'm a bore and want league football back
I'm even more of a bore and want to discuss TRANSFERS
A glory-supporting turtle wearing the winners' kit
After Extra Time:
England (1.64) 2-1 (1.98) Slovakia
All bollocks innit.Originally Posted by niko_cee
After Extra Time:
England (1.64) 2-1 (1.98) Slovakia
That's a massive improvement on the group stages mind.
But, at the expense of allowing more chances to the opposition…
It had us at 1.3 in regular time which I find hard to fathom. Did we have a chance of note?
Holy shit that was close.
Funny to see that kind of long-range gamble in back-to-back games.
Fucking Spain.
Actually good team in "comfortably overturning a surprise deficit" shocker.
Certainly not anything that would add up to us being 130% to have scored a goal. I've never seen the list or where to find it but someone was quoting the xG of specific chances to me on here the other day so there must be a breakdown somewhere.
Spain's attack is nice but that defense won't hold against anyone decent, one would think.
Does Yamal ever score?
Twice for Spain, once against Georgia.
That was a nice goal sadly.
Quality.
Players need to seriously fuck off lying down all the time and expecting the ball to be put out.
Yeah that was amazing. Great pass, great dribble and great finish.
Nice goal, but I guess they forgot they were already 2-1 up.
I think understat do a little pitch map thing showing you the chances and their xG, but I'm not sure such exists for the euros in an easily accessible format.
No idea what this is but lol nonetheless:
Or at least grab your head so the ref is more likely to stop the game.
Much like Pulis and his impact on my ever decreasing interest in west brom, I'm on nights this week and didn't even bother setting an alarm to watch England tonight.
Despite the former, I never thought I'd get to the point of not really caring if England won or not, but I think the group stage was the final nail. It sounds borderline treacherous but if we manage to somehow shit our way to the title a la Portugal 2016, I'm not sure I'll even be that bothered.
I'm more of a goal threat than Yamal in this game.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/06/en...uro-2024-live/
If you scroll all the way down to the graphs you can click on the xG map.
Olmo showing Yamal how to do it.
Spain v Germany's going to be a massive quarter final.
That's a lovely finish.
Yeah though 2nd and 3rd best teams of the tournament meeting in the quarters is a bit unfortunate.
Cool.
Bellingham's goal having an xG of nearly 0.25 is a bit
1 in 4 for a bicycle kick? And not much different from Kane's point blank header?
England don’t meet Austria until the semis.
I'm a twit
What about the one Trippier booted out the stadium, where the commentator let him get away with it by blaming a divot? Should have been 0.99.
I'm a twit
England is the best and Austria is the 4th best, I reckon semis is about right.
@niko_cee Pekarik's chance also being above 0.5 feels a bit insane. The more I look at stuff like that, the more I start being convinced that it's all random.
0.089
Model is obviously adjusting for the divot.
Or the player.
It is trying to quantify shit that is obviously qualitative. Nothing wrong with that, but cannot see it as anything other than a very coarse metric. Might as well look at the metrics that actually matter, such as, you know, matches won and goals scored.
Yeah, fuck the cat.
How is the party line coming out of the England Camp that their character has been questioned?
No changes for the next game, I guess, other than Guehi.
I thought that was a bit odd too, but perhaps it's due to some of the pundits blaming "the players" when they'd rather avoid going in on Sir Gareth, the man who is 100% responsible for all of this.
xG has error bars on it so looking at it on a micro (shot/match) scale obviously requires caveating. It's just noise about a mean before you even take game state into account. Nevertheless, it's more predictive than goals (once you have enough data)
The overhead kick being high takes into account that he's made contact with the ball not far from the goal with no defenders blocking the path. Only the better models will mark it down for being an overhead kick (rather than a shot).
Is it more predictive than league table?
Yeah, if you want to predict next season's table then you're better off using the previous season's xG rather than goals/points. You'd be much better than either of those using odds.
I had 5 live on for the first half and I could tell from the commentary exactly what was going on, but pundits (Joe Hart, Chris Sutton and someone else) went incredibly easy on them. It's as if they feel it inappropriate to criticise Southgate as a fellow pro.
I don't know what it is about Rice but he really winds me up as a human. It used to be his shitty little besties shtick with 'Mase' but it's worse with this new how very dare you/don't you know who I am attitude he carries about as if he's someone who has done more than the square root of fuck all in his career of note.
He's gone all Arsenal.
I don't know. I am not going to make the numbers too carefully and I don't really follow football but:
2023/2024 Table
MANCHESTER CITY
ARSENAL
LIVERPOOL
ASTON VILLA
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
CHELSEA
NEWCASTLE UNITED
MANCHESTER UNITED
WEST HAM UNITED
CRYSTAL PALACE
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
BOURNEMOUTH
FULHAM
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
EVERTON
BRENTFORD
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
LUTON TOWN
BURNLEY
SHEFFIELD UNITED
2022/2023 Table
MANCHESTER CITY
ARSENAL
MANCHESTER UNITED
NEWCASTLE UNITED
LIVERPOOL
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
ASTON VILLA
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
BRENTFORD
FULHAM
CRYSTAL PALACE
CHELSEA
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
WEST HAM UNITED
BOURNEMOUTH
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
EVERTON
LEICESTER CITY
LEEDS UNITED
SOUTHAMPTON
2022/2023 xG Table
1 Manchester City
2 Arsenal
3 Brighton & Hove Albion
4 Liverpool
5 Manchester United
6 Newcastle United
7 Tottenham Hotspur
8 Chelsea
9 West Ham United
10 Leeds United
11 Fulham
12 Brentford
13 Everton
14 Aston Villa
15 Crystal Palace
16 Leicester City
17 Southampton
18 Wolverhampton Wanderers
19 AFC Bournemouth
20 Nottingham Forest
Just looking at this random stuff I found on Google and counting how many places off each table predicted per team and adding them all together, the xG table did worse (49 off for league table vs 54 off for xG table). I am sure the fancy stats industry will tell me that my analysis is shit and that something a lot more sophisticated should be used that would make the fancy statistics obviously better, but I think the average fan is better off just ignoring these type of statistics. I guess for gamblers it might be worth it, I don't know.
Some bald spot.
the old Nazi marching powder.
2 shots on target with the first coming in the 94th minute and just squeezing past Slovakia. Really throwing it back at some people, mate.
Shut up and appreciate their greatness.
I refuse to watch videos of Bellingham talking on accent grounds. What did he say?
It was absolutely diabolical for most of that game and everyone around me were absolutely exasperated by the lack of action from Southgate. But the bicycle kick was an unbelievable moment to see live and despite the crap, the England fans mostly tried to encourage the team. The left side is a real and obvious problem and completely unbalances the team and Walker was diabolical today.
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