Sky Bet suspended all Scottish Open odds, someone dropped out?
Sky Bet suspended all Scottish Open odds, someone dropped out?
I think they just close it in the transition from pre-tournament odds to in-play.
I’ve got a two day old baby so had no chance to boot up the laptop this week. Don’t think I’m missing a lot anyway; my model works with PGA Tour stats so the Scottish is very patchy in that regard and the Barbasol is shit.
Congratulations Ben.
Thanks a lot.
Norway -4 @ 4/1
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The Open
We are back at St Andrews for the 150th Open, seven years after the last visit in 2015. The weather is fine, has been for a while, and the course already looks firm and fast - ideal links conditions, in other words, as long as the wind blows at least a little. This one is played against the background of all the LIV shenanigans, with a number of LIV players in the field. Otherwise it is a wide open field with any number of possible winners.
In looking for options I am drawn to the fact that, at Open venues, experience is a huge factor. I am always fascinated by the idea that Tom Watson nearly won in 2009 (aged 59) because the wind turned on day three and he was the only player - from 1977 - who had played the course in that wind. I was there that year and remember watching the boyish McIlroy hit a series of dreadful high approach shots into holes because he just didn't understand that links golf is played against history and nature, rather than against the mind of some high rolling course designer and his team of manicurists. Phil Mickelson didn't learn this for over 20 years, either, and then he did. Even Tiger Woods, who dominated here in 2000, had had a crucial go around as an amateur in 1995. As such, I feel that the seven-year gap since the Open was last played at the Old Course is going to count against some of the game's newer stars. Of the current world top 10, only McIlroy has ever played an Open here - back in 2010 when he somehow went 63-80 in the first two rounds.
So the winner here, as well as the obvious golfing ability, is going to need the sort of touch, versatility and imagination which I think can only be suggested via their record on true links tests.
Outright
Shane Lowry 22/1
Lowry, of course, grew up playing this sort of golf, has proved it with an Open win at Portrush, and I feel he is certainly overpriced here. Of all the players in the field, Lowry might be the one with the most versatile short game, which is something he is certainly going to need with the course dry as bone and all the humps and bumps coming into play. If he can control his trajectory from inside 100 yards I see no reason why he can't win a second jug this week.
Dustin Johnson 33/1
Not so long ago it was unthinkable that you would soon be able to catch DJ at this price, and many may waver after his LIV defection signposted (and he said in so many words) that playing pro golf isn't something he wants to do forever. However, if one casts aside all the baggage, I can't turn down the chance to back him here. Two Opens at St Andrews produced a best of T14, but he's had four top tens at the Open and is certainly not lacking in distance or the controlled ball flight that may well help him get extra assistance off the deck. My only concern is whether he is bright enough to think his way round this challenge - but if conditions are easier than expected, he could prove a hard man to beat.
Ryan Fox 70/1
Popular in this thread recently, I am sticking with Fox even in major championship conditions. He hits the ball far enough to be able to attack the scoring holes (particularly 9, 10 and 18). He has five Opens to his name and four made cuts, including a trip around St Andrews in 2015 which will have taught him the basics. He's also bang in form and I can see him getting amongst it this week.
Adri Arnaus 300/1
This may be going against my predilection for the over 30s, but Arnaus strikes me as wildly overpriced at this number. He is a quality ball striker, whose failure to break into the game's top 50 can largely be put down to his issues with the putter. Power off the tee, T24 at the Dunhill Links last year, form of late and two strong chipping weeks at the Irish and Scottish Opens present a stronger case than 300/1 would suggest.
Side bets
Top Englishman - Matthew Jordan 28/1. A strong field, but Jordan is a known links specialist who has a T5 at the Dunhill Links and, as an amateur, won the 2017 'St Andrews Links Trophy' - no idea what that is but it sounds pretty on-point. Somehow you get 4 places e/w for this on Skybet as well.
Top Lefty - Brian Harman 11/4. Favourite Bob MacIntyre has no form whatsoever, and Harman very much fits the mould of 2015 winner Zach Johnson. I'm not aware of there being much form for lefties around this ancient anti-clockwise layout, so even making the cut could be enough for Brian up against only MacIntyre and Phil Mickelson, Garrick Higgo and Sam Bairstow.
Top South African - Dean Burmester 8/1. The obvious pick here would be Louis Oosthuizen, whose win in 2010 and T2 in 2015 represent a pretty handy case. However, I think Louis's mind could be elsewhere just now and if he falters I like Burmy, one of my most profitable ever players, at this price. Skybet give you 3 places for this too.
NB: I quite like Big Tony as well but I'm fucked if I'm actually tipping him for a major championship.
Not looked properly yet but I’m all over Lowry for sure.
5, 2, 1, 1 E/W on Jimmy's tips.
Are they your words Jim, or the words of the computer?
For majors there's usually a lot more of me in there, as the markets don't make as many glaring errors. Computer flags names and I filter them with my own knowledge. Had a bad year on the majors in 2021 but extremely good so far in 2022, being all in on Scottie for the Masters, then had Mito for the PGA (still pains me most days, that) and was all over the US Open leaderboard like a rash but didn't back Fitz because every cunt had backed him in too short.
The computer is at its most powerful for run of the mill events, as the run of the mill players are always more motivated for these and the computer will pick up on quiet form trends among them. The sort of 40/1 - 100/1 range is sometimes where bookies make what to me are inexplicable errors. Mito 175/1 for the PGA was a classic example of this, should have been 100/1 tops and I said so in the preview post.
It seems Scottie Scheffler has been completely disregarded after last week so at 20/1 I'm going to take a punt on him getting to grips with the greens. Also going with Will Zalatoris at 30/1 because I think with his improving putting he's got all the tools to do it.
Talor Gooch is tremendous around the greens so I feel he's way overpriced at 175/1 and Russell Henley is high enough in all the stats to be worth a dabble at 200/1. I also feel I need someone in the mid-range so going with my usual Sungjae Im bet at 80/1.
I’ve been asked to join a would anyone be interested in a golf version of last man standing. Pick three golfers with a combined total price of 150/1, lowest aggregate score of the combined three wins. Any suggestions, before I accept?
Basically copied from this: https://twitter.com/golflms?s=21&t=1...xSDbixVW9hzVkg
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Late additions:
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100/1
Jamie Donaldson 400/1
Their competition odds aren't in line with the exchange, so absent of any golfing knowledge you could go for players who are shorter on Betfair compared to their list.Originally Posted by Baz
Schauffele, Homa, Finau sums to 150 in the competition but only 139.5 on the machine.
Here's a comparison of relevant entries:
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Or you could just go with Jimmy's picks.
Very ianteresting.
I’ve sent
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125/1
Dustin Johnson 35/1
Shane Lowry 22/1
You can have 10% of my winnings Jim.
I'm a twit
Xander
Power
Kisner
Properly miserable start for my lot, rubbed in by the big easy being -4 from 700/1 or whatever he was (narrowly went for +4 Donaldson over him as token OAP rolls royce pick).
This is literally a manifesto for backing Ernie Els at a massive price and I didn't do it.
Of course he’ll have a brain fade at some point but McIlroy is looking ominous here. Both his ball striking and putting is on the money.
England Women over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5
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The cream really has risen to the top in the Open. Minimal returns all round.
Couldn’t quite finish them off, but decent profit nonetheless.
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Harmy and Burmy
Thieved a 100% profit off the back of these and DJ, can't wait to lose it all on the 3M Open.
After having four of the top 8 going into Sunday, I got fuck all.
Decided late last night whilst watching the World Athletics Championships to put £5 on Devon Allen to win at 8.5 which I thought was far too generous.
He's blown hot and cold this year but when he's been on form he's been lightning. He's got the fastest time this year at 12.84 which also happens to be the third fastest time ever in the sport and just four-hundreths of a second off the World Record.
This was also going to be his last ever race as he's going to try to become an NFL WR and was recently signed by the Philadelphia Eagles. The track also happens to be where he went to College so I assumed he had lots of practice on said track plus would want to really go for it for his home crowd.
Things looked even better when the Olympic champion and favourite for the race Hansle Parchment (what a name) injured himself in warm ups.
Obviously he ended up being disqualified for a false start. The electronic blocks said he moved 0.001 seconds too fast (if you react in under 0.100 seconds it's deemed that you couldn't have reacted to the gun and went before) and left the track with the crowd booing the officials.
I followed this so cheers Jim!Harmy and Burmy
Thieved a 100% profit off the back of these and DJ, can't wait to lose it all on the 3M Open.
Some quick last minute picks for 3M:
Todd 50/1
Hoge 75/1
Lashley 110/1
Todd and Lashley because the good putters go well here and Hoge because I keep backing him and I know when I fuck him off he will come good (despite six missed cuts in a row his stats are still holding up).
Cazoo - Olesen & Ferguson
3M - Clark & Tarren
3M
NeSmith 50/1
Ghim 66/1
Hoge 70/1
I agree Hoge just can't be missed at those odds.
Has anyone got any season long football bets on? I’ve a few, mostly based on Haaland being very good:
Man City to win by 5+ goals at least 5 times in the league @ 12/1
Man City to win by 6+ goals at least 5 times in the league @ 18/1
Man City to win the league, Haaland top scorer @ 8/1
Haaland top scorer and 15+ assists @ 250/1
1 City, 2 Liverpool, 3 Spurs, 4 Chelsea @ 25/1
Haaland, Nunez & Kane to have 15+ headed shots on target @ 500/1
I'm a twit
How many times have City historically won by 6 in the league? That seems a pretty low price for it to happen that many times.
What is a headed shot? 15 headers on target all season from those three? Combined?
Yeah the first two aren’t happening and the prices given are horrendous.
The headers seems pretty good valve on the face of it but it must be 500/1 for a reason. Must not happen as often as you’d think.
The best season long ones are outright league winners I think, as an acca. My mate had one years ago as a £5 acca that he cashed out at £30k because two teams had a wobble late on. They later recovered and won their leagues meaning he would have won £120k if he held his nerve
The headers is surely 15 each.
Also, Spurs in third?
It’s 15 each
And they won by 5 four times last season. To win by 5 five times was 50/1 at one point, so I agree the prices are turd this time.
I'm a twit
How many headed shots did Kane have on target last season?
He had 53 shots on target so I'm going to guess not many [he led the league with 4 headed goals].
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Hoge placed, Ghimp went round in about 200 to miss the places, wanker. Wp with Tarren, Manc.
Been a while since I've had a triple odds come in. Lovely jubbly.
Rocket Mortgage: Kirk, Kuchar, Hubbard.
I'll follow on Hubbard 50/1. Kisner 40/1, Champ 50/1 & Pendrith 70/1.
Hero Open:
Long 33/1
Law 40/1
Sullivan 55/1
Rocket Mortgage
Kirk 50/1
Henley 50/1
Spaun 150/1
Lipsky 150/1
Hero Open
Law 40/1
Jamieson 60/1
Hundeboll 80/1
LIV Donald J. Trump Murder Classic
Kokrak 25/1
Has Russell Henley ever actually won? I swear one of us backs him every week. Here we go. 2017 Houston the last time. Bleak.
I was obsessed with him for a bit. He came out on my shortlist for this as well but I limited myself to three.
+ over a stroke t2g since January and no top 10 in the same period, he must be the Hulkenberg of golfers.
All in on the Jimmy train.
This is definitely a thing. I've been hot on Kisner all year. Hoge the year before.
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