Coronavirus Death Thread

[Yevrah]

You said you had come to the conclusion that unless a vaccine is developed and administered fast we will see 90% unemployment and the death of society. I'm asking how you arrived at those conclusions.

Because the economy and society can't cope with perpetual semi-lockdown.

I also said, in the same post:

This is an existential crisis and one that is only solved by either a quick vaccine, social distancing (on a scale that a population that aren't even taking this seriously cannot pull off) or by doing something utterly unpalatable.

Maybe I should have been clearer, but I don't think we'll end up with society collapsing because we'll have to do the unpalatable bit eventually before it does. Which for the avoidance of any doubt, is letting a lot of people die to get out of this.

After today's press conference I think that might be our strategy again. The scientists are frothing at the gash to try out herd immunity and Boris doesn't want to tank the economy by actually locking down. Bar a vaccine, that's all that's left.

Is that clearer?

[Yevrah]

Today's message of "well done for locking down, we'll be done in 12 weeks" is manifestly not taking it seriously either and I don't see how it remotely helps. If anything it hinders getting those who weren't buying the seriousness of this off the streets.

And I've not left the house for three days, so I can't be sure what's going on outside, but judging by what's been posted on here and other places, it does seem that a lot of people aren't heeding the advice. Jim's still working in his office FFS.

Anecdotal stuff I know, but unless it's all not true, what on earth are we doing? Encouraging the deaths of the old and vulnerable? Maybe that's ultimately the right play, but let's call a spade a spade and not kid ourselves. Our efforts have seemingly been piss poor compared to other countries.

EDIT: Not having a dig at you there Jim, but your company.

[igor_balis]

Just saw my dad post this on someone's FB post, finally some common sense.

[Giggles]

We’ve had evictions and rent increases banned for 3 months.
The leaving certificate oral exams have been cancelled with everyone getting full marks

[Lee]

They're cleverer than me too, but are they cleverer than all the other countries scientists who have advocated lock downs and actually done them? We are around 4 days behind the point when Italy locked the whole country down and as things stand now, London is open for business.

We're not testing the population anywhere near enough.
We've not locked anything down
We're not going to lock the tube down
We don't have enough ICU beds.
Our doctors don't have the right PPE
Our doctors aren't being tested and are being removed from the front line instead
Boris is actively lying to us about 12 weeks
Boris is not supporting the public - how are the people looking after their children for the next x weeks going to be paid?
Boris is not supporting business - how are those that people are being told to stay away from going to cope? Repaying loans?

I sort of now start to see now how the left must feel when they listen to him. So many lies or untruths.

London could well be our Lombardy. And Birmingham and the Black Country is starting to look bad. Obviously population density is a big factor.

What I don't understand is why we wouldn't just properly lockdown those places and prioritise them for testing. Vallance said today the test isn't technically difficult to produce, so requisition some manufacturing folk to mass produce, test those populations like mad. Let people out who test negative or who have had it so some semblance of economic and social life can be maintained within tight geographical bounds for a bit and cases will gradually start to drop as others with it are forced to stay in and get over it (in the great many cases) before they join their mates in doing stuff again. Institute regular testing for everybody somehow (temperature checks at work? send people home if they start coughing?) and isolate whatever small pockets of disease which inevitably show up. Then after two weeks or so they're sorted too.

You could gradually open up international travel again as well with some co-operation between countries. Test people before they get on a plane or whatever. Only allow travel to and from countries who have tested loads and so won't kill us all, which is obviously nowhere right now. It will take time but there's a route to some sort of normality.

Fuck knows why they're not going that way but I'd drive myself mental internally fighting that fight every day. I can only keep myself and the missus as safe as possible and do whatever it takes to make sure our folks are doing the same things for themselves. Life is a bit less exciting but there are worse things than being able to work from home and having a garden to sit about in when the sun comes out, while this all blows over. Which it will, eventually.

I guess that's something to look forward to. That first beer in a pub, goal at a football match, or beach somewhere hot are going to feel so fucking good. Which is why I'd like an honest answer about how long this is likely to take, however caveated it might be. I think people are going to need to see some end in sight, even if it's a distant one. At the minute everything is just on pause and it's shit.

[Shindig]

At least traffic wise, Durham seemed normal. They've updated the cases in your area lookup (with yesterday's data) and County Durham's now up to 3. 13 in Newcastle which still remains the biggest in the region. Boris' rhetoric should be harder. It's a bit like watching a parent suddenly say, "We'll see. We might get to Disneyland." instead of reaching into the back seat and slapping his kids.

Because the sooner all us cunts isolate and stop fucking about, the sooner we can go to Disneyland. Fuck Alton Towers.

[Boydy]

I'm with Yev, here. That message today is just going to encourage complacency when so many people already aren't taking this anywhere near seriously enough. And with no lockdowns or anything, I can't help but feel they are basically trying to their do their 'herd immunity' strategy by stealth.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My colleague who works in shipping was properly traumatised earlier, as she's a single mother and her 8yo is now needing to be looked after for potentially months. Management and even her line manager didn't seem to give a shit and the latter kept barking at her for a 'plan' to be in place by the end of the day, which made her even more upset.

Enter my lowly partner in the sales squadron, who, being an Italian hothead and quite good friends with her, unilaterally went straight in to the MD and demanded to know what he was going to do about it. Two hours later, as if by magic, Captain IT has built her a PC with all required software which she's taking home to be able to wfh. A somewhat inspiring turn of events, I must say.

It's amazing what can happen when people like MDs are actually forced into action to find creative ways to keep the various operational arms of the company running. What the fuck are they are thinking about the rest of the time? Is the art of top management literally just one long penny pinch? How did these people get their jobs in the first place with the leadership skills of a sherry trifle?

[Disco]

I can't believe there haven't been more stringent measures put in place to make people stay at home, there's far too many not taking this seriously and just wandering about as if it's not happening.

I also want to put the walking heart bypass in our office through a fucking window, he will not stop coming out with such pearls of wisdom as 'I'm a grown adult, I can make up my own mind on it' and 'if the government told us jumping in a river would cure it half of you would turn up soaking wet'. All of the people self isolating are apparently 'the usual suspects' which might be true but fuck me, you just have to take the hit on stuff like that at the moment. His wife works in a care home too so he's probably going to murder some grandparents before this is over.

[7om]

Because the economy and society can't cope with perpetual semi-lockdown.

I also said, in the same post:



Maybe I should have been clearer, but I don't think we'll end up with society collapsing because we'll have to do the unpalatable bit eventually before it does. Which for the avoidance of any doubt, is letting a lot of people die to get out of this.

After today's press conference I think that might be our strategy again. The scientists are frothing at the gash to try out herd immunity and Boris doesn't want to tank the economy by actually locking down. Bar a vaccine, that's all that's left.

Is that clearer?

So it won't be a breakdown of society, we will have to do "the unpalatable", and a vaccine is necessary because Boris won't go full shut down.

That seems like an awful lot of grey area for such black and white predictions.

[Yevrah]

London could well be our Lombardy. And Birmingham and the Black Country is starting to look bad. Obviously population density is a big factor.

What I don't understand is why we wouldn't just properly lockdown those places and prioritise them for testing. Vallance said today the test isn't technically difficult to produce, so requisition some manufacturing folk to mass produce, test those populations like mad. Let people out who test negative or who have had it so some semblance of economic and social life can be maintained within tight geographical bounds for a bit and cases will gradually start to drop as others with it are forced to stay in and get over it (in the great many cases) before they join their mates in doing stuff again. Institute regular testing for everybody somehow (temperature checks at work? send people home if they start coughing?) and isolate whatever small pockets of disease which inevitably show up. Then after two weeks or so they're sorted too.

You could gradually open up international travel again as well with some co-operation between countries. Test people before they get on a plane or whatever. Only allow travel to and from countries who have tested loads and so won't kill us all, which is obviously nowhere right now. It will take time but there's a route to some sort of normality.

Isn't this the approach China eventually took and South Korea likewise? If so, what frustrates me more than anything else about this is when people compare us to China, as if we're somehow doing the same thing, are on the same path and will therefore will get the same result.

We're not and unless the virus just magics itself away, we won't.

You're right though, I need to stop thinking about it. Ignoring things seems the much better option at the moment.

[Shindig]

Christ. No wonder it broke them.

[Lee]

Isn't this the approach China eventually took and South Korea likewise? If so, what frustrates me more than anything else about this is when people compare us to China, as if we're somehow doing the same thing, are on the same path and will therefore will get the same result.

We're not and unless the virus just magics itself away, we won't.

You're right though, I need to stop thinking about it. Ignoring things seems the much better option at the moment.

An email I've just had from work tells you why we're not going the South Korea/Singapore route:

"There is a critical shortage of viral swabs for testing of Covid-19. Currently we use two swabs- one for the nose and one for the throat. To maintain our ability to test patients, we are reducing the number of swabs to one. Please use the same swab for the throat and nose (swabbing the throat first before using the same swab in the nose). One swab will be enough for a standard respiratory viral panel and Covid-19 test."

[Shindig]

Have people panic bought cotton buds?

[Yeldoow]

An email I've just had from work tells you why we're not going the South Korea/Singapore route:

"There is a critical shortage of viral swabs for testing of Covid-19. Currently we use two swabs- one for the nose and one for the throat. To maintain our ability to test patients, we are reducing the number of swabs to one. Please use the same swab for the throat and nose (swabbing the throat first before using the same swab in the nose). One swab will be enough for a standard respiratory viral panel and Covid-19 test."

I'm sure when I was tested on Friday they only used one swab.

[SincereTheRebel]

Does Italy have a lot of old pussy?

[Lee]

On lockdown, the only reason I can think why they’re not going all in is because they think they’re close enough to a test which will show enough recovered/immune people to keep life ticking over on some level, and be able to identify those who definitely need to stay in.

The testing in Iceland is interesting on that front. They’ve tested 1% of the population (which is admittedly small) and found that of those with the disease about half have/had no symptoms. If that’s true elsewhere it’s much less deadly than we fear and lots of people currently semi-hibernating don’t need to be doing so.

I suppose the logical action from that is still some sort of lockdown, but it’s more targeted and probably more successful. If you tell somebody they’ve got it, even if they have no symptoms, they’re not going to go about risking killing others. The not knowing is the fucker. That’s one thing the PM has right,

[Lee]

I'm sure when I was tested on Friday they only used one swab.

It might be that they’ve now found that one swab is fine (we’d not resort to it otherwise). It was the phrase ‘critical shortage’ that caught my eye.

[Shindig]

They mentioned the antibody test today so they have to be pursuing it on some level.

[Yevrah]

So it won't be a breakdown of society, we will have to do "the unpalatable", and a vaccine is necessary because Boris won't go full shut down.

That seems like an awful lot of grey area for such black and white predictions.

It's quite straight forward. There are 4 ways the virus goes away:

1. We vaccinate against it
2. We stay inside until it's gone (not that simple I know, but for the purpose of brevity let's use that as a catch all term for proper isolation and testing, leading to a capacity to treat where possible and elimination through knowledge of where it actually is)
3. It kills everyone it can
4. The pixies ask it nicely to leave

Let's assume 4 won't happen.
1 takes time, which if we're on semi-lockdown for the duration and that duration is into next year will kill the economy. Particularly if other countries have managed to make 2 a success.
2 might work, but people need to disabuse themselves of the notion that that's what we're doing. We're manifestly not. Or not properly at least. And it doesn't strike me that we're going to.
3 by process of elimination, if we can't get a vaccine quick enough, is the only option left. Mixed in with some mitigation from our half arsed efforts at 2.

If I've misunderstood anything, shout.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Treating it with existing anti-malarial drugs sounds like an interesting development. If that succeeds and can be done on any kind of scale surely it would be, bear with me for this awful phrase, a game changer?

[Lee]

Treating it with existing anti-malarial drugs sounds like an interesting development. If that succeeds and can be done on any kind of scale surely it would be, bear with me for this awful phrase, a game changer?

https://www.connexionfrance.com/Fren...i-malaria-drug

A few small trials of the same drug in different countries have shown promise. It will obviously need testing more widely but given where we are then why the fuck not?

[Lewis]

The word in the work WhatsApp group is that we're out for three months, so obviously twelve weeks is about right.

[ScousePig]

Today's message of "well done for locking down, we'll be done in 12 weeks" is manifestly not taking it seriously either and I don't see how it remotely helps. If anything it hinders getting those who weren't buying the seriousness of this off the streets.

And I've not left the house for three days, so I can't be sure what's going on outside, but judging by what's been posted on here and other places, it does seem that a lot of people aren't heeding the advice. Jim's still working in his office FFS.

Anecdotal stuff I know, but unless it's all not true, what on earth are we doing? Encouraging the deaths of the old and vulnerable? Maybe that's ultimately the right play, but let's call a spade a spade and not kid ourselves. Our efforts have seemingly been piss poor compared to other countries.

EDIT: Not having a dig at you there Jim, but your company.

Well schools are closing. Except they're not, as on Monday all staff will be attending, and it remains to be seen what percentage of children are still in.

[Manc]

How many deaths justify the country being on lockdown for 100 days?

[Yevrah]

How many deaths justify the country being on lockdown for 100 days?

I don't know, did you have a number in mind?

[Lewis]

A thousand a day.

[Ian]

My sister works for a kilt hire / formal-wear company and this afternoon they've laid off just over 50% of their staff. Not my sister, thankfully, and while a firm like that is absolutely boned during this situation it's still properly grim tidings.

[Bernanke]

Can confirm what Luca said before that I'm a fan of negative interest rates. I'm not an economist though, I'm Bernanke.

[Yevrah]

And that's a perfect example of what I mean about this killing the economy and society.

I know people think I'm being an alarmist twat, but what are the other 50% of people that are still there going to do when it comes to hiring kilts and formal wear during a global pandemic while the country is on semi-lockdown for months on end?

There will be thousands upon thousands of businesses and millions of people in the same boat right now, and this hasn't even properly kicked off yet.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What the government need to do is create some kind of temporary national logistical corps (complete with shit uniform) and take companies' workers on loan for a national living wage to fill it.

I haven't phrased that well as I'm on a phone, but it works in my head.

[niko_cee]

Just let the co-morbitities (god I love that term) die.

It's what Bentham would have done. It's not 'unpalatable' it's utilitarian.

Spent your life smoking and getting type 2 diabetes? Well, bad luck being old. Either get in the cupboard or get in the box.

[Spikey M]

Does Italy have a lot of old pussy?

Had.

[Lewis]

My model previously had Yevrah two weeks behind the government in his thinking, but after inputting the data from today I've reduced that time frame to ten days.

[Kikó]

The governments of the world basically need to prop up all business and pause normality until this is resolved. Bring in some universal wage so we don't need to work and ride it out.

[CJay]

We currently have 12/14 staff attending our office. 11 of those instantly have the ability to work from home with no additional measure required, but for some reason that’s not happening. I can understand one or two needing to be in the office on any day, but there’s no need for all of them. They’re all sitting in our tiny kitchen at lunchtime too, while I dine in my office in peace. I can’t work from home so I’m stuck working through this apparently despite the office being closed to the public and me therefore having no work to do.

And Limavady is as busy during the day as ever. Old people walking the streets everywhere you look. Very few here taking it seriously.

[Lewis]

The Irish choking on their precious 'craic'.

[Alex]

Can confirm what Luca said before that I'm a fan of negative interest rates. I'm not an economist though, I'm Bernanke.

If we make it through this then we definitely sort the next round of board funding out by launching a TTH branded range of "I'm Yevrah" t-shirts and mugs.

[Giggles]

The Irish choking on their precious 'craic'.

There’s nothing Irish about Limavady, or CJay.

[Vercetti]

I ventured into my local Iceland tonight. I lolled (to myself, I didn't want to look like a mental) at all the empty freezers and shelves. And their septuagenarian security guard.

The hoarding wankers left shitloads of Iceland's quality chicken strips behind, though, so I made out like a bandit, in the end.

[Giggles]

Legislation being passed to shut pubs and even stamp on house parties. Had to be done.

[CJay]

There’s nothing Irish about Limavady, or CJay.

Eh? I’m very much Irish, born and bred.

[Giggles]

You’re not really though, you just happened to be born here.

[randomlegend]

It might be that they’ve now found that one swab is fine (we’d not resort to it otherwise). It was the phrase ‘critical shortage’ that caught my eye.

They were (we still are as far as I know) running the covid test on one swab and the rest of the standard viral PCR panel on another.

[Yevrah]

Why is today's deathcount in the UK now 40?

[CJay]

You’re not really though, you just happened to be born here.

And lived there for 24 odd years before moving. Not sure how you’re defining being Irish. Having a surname with an O or a Mc?

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was 33 earlier. Perhaps seven more people died.

[Yevrah]

It was 33 earlier. Perhaps seven more people died.

Are we frigging figures ahead of press conferences?

[Jimmy Floyd]

That's what I would do. Hide a few extra corpses in primetime so people hear a lower number today and a lower number tomorrow.

[Giggles]

And lived there for 24 odd years before moving. Not sure how you’re defining being Irish. Having a surname with an O or a Mc?

Mc definitely wouldn’t guarantee it. Actually being Irish is being Irish. You’re a loyalist Briton are you not?

Anyway, not the thread probably. I don’t even know if Lewis was referring to you/Limavady, maybe his anti Irish alarm went off and he had went too long without posting something.