Well, to answer the question, there's no way to know if they wouldn't have died in that time period anyway I don't suppose, but equally I think it's fair that if they've tested positive and they're dead within 2 weeks to include them.
Well, to answer the question, there's no way to know if they wouldn't have died in that time period anyway I don't suppose, but equally I think it's fair that if they've tested positive and they're dead within 2 weeks to include them.
I'm ramping up the PANIC by building a spreadsheet.Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
Might have a gander at the local Co-op tonight and see if it's the same story. Up here doesn't seem to have been too bad so far.
taking on board the point Yev made about isolating, I just went onto Ocado to do a good 2 week essentials list and found they're completely down, whilst Asda's next delivery date is the 25th, ffs.
I have an order placed with Tesco that I did earlier in the week - earliest slot was Monday evening. I then spotted they'd sold out of loads of the stuff I ordered and not told me. Idiots
Seems like we're keeping our heads so far. Co-op was short on dried pasta and potatoes but that was about it to be fair.
Eggs is a strange one. In peacetime I always had some in but I've abandoned them now. I'm not sure they really achieve anything.
A Spanish friend has his family staying over at his place this weekend. The idiot.
My uncle who’s lived in Texas for a good 17 years was supposed to be over in a couple of weeks. However, good thing he didn’t as he wouldn’t be able to get back as he’s not a us citizen.
Going to be a few lost individuals with all this closed borders.
He would've been able to get back as a US resident, probably.
When I was unpacking my food last night I left the damn freezer door open. The bread's ok, but I now have 8 Chicago Town pizzas that have been kept at fridge temperature for over 12 hours.
Anyone done something as dumb as that, refrozen and eaten them and lived to tell the tale?
I tried to cook an unfrozen one, it worked like i'd just put a lump of cheese in the oven.
Jesus, I nearly died of respiratory failure laughing at that.
I might phone 111 and ask them.
😂
The UK herd immunity thing is complete pseudo science bollocks. It's going to fuck loads of us. My family are going to be fucked.
Their logic is logic (just as all logic is logic) but the frustration is that they simply refuse to explain why their approach is different to every other nation and appeal to 'the science'.
La France is now in lockdown, for example.
This is the danger of morons (who genuinely think they're intelligent) blindly following experts. They absolutely need to be listened to, but then serious questions as to why they believe what they do and how they've modelled that need to be asked and answered.
Cook them up Yev. Pizza for breakfast lunch and dinner for the next few days.
It's like a cult.
France have now locked down everything, presumably across the entire country. If you're not buying food or seeking medical help, that's it. Stay at home.
I think if they explained it or at least offered some leadership I could get behind it. But so far it's fucking about, giving us duff information (sporting events are fine.. Oh wait no they're not) and hoping we don't all kill the hospitals. Nothings changed bar individual businesses now forcing people home.
Germany, who our approach was likened to (and really should have more deaths by now given the number of cases) have done similar.
With another day or deaths and more cases to come tomorrow, I suspect the FTSE may absolutely tank on Monday.Germany has reported 733 more cases - the national total now stands at 3,795, with eight deaths. Berlin has banned on all public and private events with more than 50 participants and forced the closure of all bars, cinemas, clubs, gyms, betting halls and brothels. Similar bans are expected in the western city of Cologne on Sunday
I've put them back in the freezer. That may be a mistake.
I'm pretty sure the whole refreezing thing is largely a myth (or of a bygone age at least) but lol if some sort of self-inflicted food poisoning sinks you instead of THE VIRUS.
As to my earlier death apportionment question, I think it's incumbent on TEAM PANIC to come up with some sort of fair system - I nominate Jimmy as he can use his baseball knowledge to cook up something like they way they work out wins for pitchers.
But they can't explain it. If they came out and said the measures we are imposing will lead to 750,000 deaths over the next 12-18 months, but that will be less than other countries will experience in the longer term, nobody would listen to the second bit and the country would implode. They'd also be inviting a diplomatic nightmare by essentially saying all of the other countries are wrong and their approach is more dangerous.
They also haven't reneged on the sporting events policy and they're not stopping them because they're arsed about the spread, more the burden it places on the emergency services.
I'm going to chuck some money at Barclays if the markets fall again. Could be dangerous though as this seems pretty seismic.
Since Wednesday I have (in the politest and most respectful possible manner) been trying to convince my mate and his girlfriend not to go skiing in France on Sunday. He has just been giving it the oh I'm sure it's not that bad. As of this afternoon he was still going. I'm not going to bug him any more, but I really fucking hope he isn't now.
Aren't all the ski resorts shut already?
I mean there's also nothing to suggest their approach is going to work - immunising against the flu or common cold hasn't happened yet despite it being with us for centuries. It's a massive massive risk on us all.
The thing that's putting me off is similar. I don't know how long things will last, I don't know how dependent the FTSE is on the global markets vs. its own (and if other countries start to show recovery, even a false one what happens) and if things really do get that bad I'd rather have access to a reasonable amount of money than it be tied up in shares that have further sunk and are at that moment in time worth x% of what I paid for them.
That's a very fair point.
I also don't understand what happens with immunity if this strains off (aren't there two strains of it already) and what of the vaccine? What's the point in letting, nay encouraging, x% more people to die if a cure could be with us in 12 months.
Journalists instead are choosing to ask the same run of the mill shit that's been drilled into them all their lives.
My mate's currently in Paris as he had tickets for the France v Ireland game and went anyway even when the game was called off. Someone else going with him had to pull out a couple of weeks ago and he offered me the spot but I turned it down. Very glad I did now.
The British press are fucking awful.
People don't want to listen and they don't like the advice.
My best mate has two parents still with him who're in their mid 70s, otherwise reasonably healthy, but they run a shop in the city centre. They've got enough access to funds to board themselves in until they die naturally, so if it were me I'd be telling them to shut up shop and knuckle down with Netflix and some tipples for a while, but based on the other discussions we've had about this* I don't even know how to broach the subject with him as I know what the response will be.
*Discussions like, parroting the words the government have used, complete with all the holes, essentially:
1. Shut nothing down
2. Carry on spreading it
3. ?????
4. Peak is suppressed
Liverpool Uni has DEFIED Boris and closed up for the rest of the academic year. Now we wait and see.
The point I'd add about travel is that if we're going to continue on this approach, it really doesn't matter. In fact, you're safer from it if you're wandering around a locked down town abroad than going out to work and the pub here.
How is Ant & Dec’s terrible show allowed to be on tonight? You’d have to be an idiot to be going to that. It’s also the type of show twats who aren’t feeling well would go along to anyway.
I joked about burying granny in the garden, but people are genuinely going to be dying at home, aren't they.
My old man has COPD and cancer so he really can't afford to get it or that's it. However, ironically enough, the COPD means he stays in the house the vast majority of the time.
This is worse than I thought. The dropbox link from Boyd's tweet explains the logic.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d5jqdmsxgw..._beds.pdf?dl=0
There could well be 20-40 year olds dying from respiratory failure through lack of beds to treat what would otherwise be treatable, thousands of them.
Are there two strains? All the academic stuff talks of it in relation to SARS which, as far as we know, isn't active.
I doubt it's 20 year olds. The 40 year olds though...
I’m glad this herd immunity approach is being hailed as bullshit already.
It’s such a moronic idea, it’s like a bad movie plot.
I'm a twit
It's 2% of 20-40 year olds that need ICU treatment based on China's numbers, which presumably starts below that for 20 year olds and tapers upwards the older you get.
The government’s approach might be right. We don’t know. What we can be sure of is the boffins will be advising in good faith and on the basis of solid science. What isn’t right is the rush to criticise if people challenge why we’re so out of step with everybody else, and the lack of transparency about the evidence base. Just share the modelling and the inputs. Good science is peer-reviewed science.
I don’t actually believe the aim of the government is to kill a load of old folk to achieve herd immunity. Some modeller chap working on all of this tweeted an interesting thread on it earlier and vented his frustration at the reporting. The problem is herd immunity is emotive, creates headlines and creates debate for new channels. We need to see an explanation from the government and so far it’s their messaging prompting the reporting. If they’re fine with younger people getting it because we won’t die, fine. But where’s the sense in saying we can get on with our lives normally if it isn’t accompanied by advice to lock granny away for a bit?
Given the numbers we now surely know are coming our way, and the policies we’re seeing enacted by almost all our neighbours, we really ought to be at the point of daily PM (flanked by the experts) statements explaining in layman’s terms what the current numbers are, how they inform the government’s position, and how they relate to the actions we can expect to see in the coming days.
I’d like to see an explanation as to why we don’t just do what other European countries are doing now. In the first couple if northern Italian towns to have been locked down they have really slowed the rate of new infections. Zero the last two or three days, I think. In which case we ought the be watching very closely what happens when they open up again.
I understand the fear of a second wave and that fear might be legitimate. Wave 2 was more deadly during the Spanish Flu pandemic. But, surely we can lock places down, open up small elements of social activity one by one once growth dies off, test the fuck out of everybody emerging with so much as a sniffle (using lockdown to ramp up testing capacity) and isolate whichever individuals test positive. Maybe not. But nobody is telling us why.
EDIT: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/...t-coronavirus/
What Peston seems to think is coming.
Last edited by Lee; 14-03-2020 at 08:38 PM.
Keeping the old away, while the young uns share it amongst themselves seems to fit right in with the theory of what they're doing. I don't think they want to actively kill old people either, just that they appreciate that in all likelihood it's a necessary evil of this approach that a lot of them will die.
Were there second or third waves of SARS? Was lockdown not pretty effective at containing it?
Genuine question, I don't know.
I know you go on to elaborate a bit on this, but this bit for me is the crux. It can't be based on solid science, or if it is, everyone else's science is wrong. So someone is not using solid science.
Agree entirely on the comms bit. He needs to be addressing the country personally, every single day.
Seemingly not having just looked. It only lasted for 7/8 months with minimal cases after that. Only covered 17 countries though, so a tiddler compared to this.
SARS didn't transmit as freely as this.
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