Do you have evidence that said poll was skewed toward the communist youth league?
He probably won't win, but it begins to look like Corbyn could have a chance if things continue as they are. The gnashing of teeth alone would be glorious.
Theresa May's Conservatives
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
Tim Farron's Liberal Democrats
Paul Nuttall's UKIP
2 people's Greens
Nicholas Durgeon's Scottish Nationalists
Satan's Sinn Fein
Dr Ian Paisley's DUP
Some other bunch of nonces
I'm foreign, but I wish I were an Englishman
Do you have evidence that said poll was skewed toward the communist youth league?
He probably won't win, but it begins to look like Corbyn could have a chance if things continue as they are. The gnashing of teeth alone would be glorious.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40064009
The first four paragraphs of that really are quite repulsive.
'The quality press.'
I'm sure whoever wrote that considers himself part of that group.
The gap in the polls (i.e. six points versus fourteen points, which has been the upper end of the post manifesto launches) has been down to the pollsters' assumptions on turnout. YouGov et al have simply applied the 18-25 'stated intention to vote' from the survey, which suggests a turnout of about 80% can be expected. Given they're voting something like 70/15 for Labour, it massively increases the Labour vote. In contrast, ComRes / ICM have taken a different view which is modifying the surveys for historical turnout as opposed to stated turnout. This is why you see much bigger Tory leads. Basically the polls' key sensitivity is 18-25 year old turnout.Originally Posted by Henry
It could well be that the youth will finally turn out en masse and make it close, but it would have to be at levels not seen for decades and in complete contradiction to every precedent the demographic has exhibited for ages.
Corbyn has no chance. For all the Labour increase in the polls, the Tory vote looks remarkably stable. Labour are squeezing more votes out of smaller parties (the Greens are basically non-existent, and the Lib Dems should basically be closed down) sure, but a lot of it is down to "don't knows" and previous non-voters suddenly saying they're a) going to vote for Labour and b) definitely turnout. It's a recipe for crushing disappointment if their passing enthusiasm doesn't manifest itself in a massive rush to the polls.
In contrast, the Tories are taking some 70% of the 65+ vote and their turnout will be over 80%.
There's an unfortunate headline on the BBC at the minute: "Is Chancellor Merkel looking to the East?"
For lebensraum, presumably.
That's a point. Where is Farage? He should be defecting to the Tories at this point and trying to infiltrate it.
Doesn't want to give up his Brussels salary.
He is a media personality now.
'Now I'm sorry. *that weird hand thing he does* I'm sorry. But we have to talk about...'
Lads, YouGov have a projection out that has the Tories retreating behind the Oder in the face of the Red Army's advance - they chuck 20-odd seats and it results in a hung parliament.
The sense of disappointment when she ends up with a significantly increased majority is going to be marvellous.
For balance's sake, there's a ComRes projection which has a Tory majority of 100+ - but nobody cares because who doesn't want to try communism again.
I'm not sure how YouGov have got to that unless they think about 90% of the 2015 kippers are staying at home.
As for the actual night, should I have an Independent Brexit Britain theme for my food (sausage rolls, jam tarts, offal), or should I stuff my head with the soon to be inaccessible foreign muck that we take for granted?
Well, this is it. It's very difficult to reconcile with their published headline polling data. They were a full 45 seats out in their final projection in 2015, as well as completely fucking up the EU referendum final projection, so one assumes a perfect hat-trick would put them out of business.
British Food for British People.
That's next Friday booked off. Something I never thought I'd waste a holiday on.
You sad cunt
I'd have even less self-respect left if I tried to deny that, even from yourself.
He'll just waste his on an actual wasted holiday.
It's never going to happen but I'd enjoy a Jezza win just to post 'MANDATE' in massive letters every time GS moans.
His government would collapse when he failed to get the budget passed. It's being overlooked that even if he, somehow, managed to become PM in a coalition, he wouldn't be able to maintain the confidence of the house.
Every smug GS post makes me feel like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXpUdBlRZe8
Mostly because I think he's depressingly right. Oh well.
Even I'm not blowing a day's leave on this. Power on through like a bastard.
I don't think the morning after the referendum will ever be topped, though.
Why?
I'm a twit
It was hilarious at Glastonbury. My mate, the one that London has turned into a self-conscious bellend, said it "ruined my weekend" and he even shouted "fuck Farage!" attempting to get a cheer, but it was ignored. Except for me calling him pathetic. Loads of people were pretending to be upset so there were easy targets everywhere.
The moment Keith Vaz came on the TV at 5am pretty much in tears was the moment I realised it was going to be absolutely hilarious, and it hasn't really stopped ever since.
I had a moment of clarity at about 11pm when I realised Leave was going to win (think it's recorded in the thread) when it was 14/1, but absolutely bottled putting the life savings on it. Pathetic.
I was in the same boat. You could even have had 4/1 when it was clearly all over. With that and POTUS, I could be sat typing this from a £2m house now.
There's a lot of money to be made if you really believe there's going to be a hung parliament, or if the Tories are getting 300-349 seats.
I'm still on a majority of 80+.
A hung parliament would require the Tories to lose ground on 2015. Given that UKIP are going from 13% to nigh on zero (not even running in half the seats), I don't see how that's possible.
I missed the Paul Nuttall Andrew Neil interview? Were there any good comedic moments worth reliving?
It goes against all polling fundamentals. Yougov have got every poll fundamentally wrong since Scottish independence.
There's an article in the Telegraph from a bloke who got the major votes right to within about 0.5% saying the Tories are on for a majority of 103-108 and Yougov's analysis, to put it bluntly, is horseshit.
The question would be at what point major media outlets stop using them. There's only so many times Peter Kellner can abase himself before his peers and say they'll do better next time.
I think the worst they can do is 60 and the best (if everyone has a collective epiphany about Corbyn on the 8th, as usually happens with shit party leaders) about 180-200.
Jezza is going to the debate this evening. Wrong move from him IMO (though a gamble he probably has to take). He'll just end up getting sucked down a Tim Farron shaped wormhole.
I think it's the right move, but might not make any difference, as I'm not sure how much these things do.
Why do people get so annoyed about the increase in tuition fees? Do people still not understand that it largely only negatively effects the graduates who go on to be big earners? And still calling it debt ffs.
I'll probably end up voting Labour but meh.
Also, is Farron the least inspiring politician of all time?
He has to be seen to win if he takes part. Big gamble, but one he probably needs to take at this stage. May is right not to bother. Rudd can just steamroller into people without it affecting perception of Maybot 2.0
I'm not sure about that one. Much like the rest of the cabinet, Amber Rudd is horribly incompetent at the slightest amount of pressure.
She's not - she did very well in the EU referendum debates for the remain side. Whether that works in a seven way (fucking seven way) debate is different.
Not that it really matters anyway. It might impact the fabled narrative, but it'll have no serious impact on anything. The broadcasters obsession with them does a bit of a disservice to the campaign. Question Time set pieces / Andrew Neil interviews are miles more worthwhile.
You have to start paying tuition fees when you earn over 15/16 grand. Hardly big earners. You then have to pay interest on it every month for the next 30 years/till you pay it off. It's very clearly debt.
Wrong.
You only start paying back at £21k. The interest rate is lower than that which you'd expect to see on a commercial loan and if you don't earn enough, you don't pay it back.
It's not debt.
21k? It was deffo 15k when I was at uni but that was the year before they tripled them.
I'd bloody well hope that the interest is lower than a commercial loan. It's an investment in people to create a stronger workforce. They make more money down the line if you have a better/are better at your job.
Well yeah, I'd agree.
That point was more in supporting evidence of it not being debt - it's much closer to a tax.
And to further my point, I'd hardly say someone earning 21k a year is rolling in it. After tax that's what, a grand and a bit per month? Chuck in rent, internet, phone and food, student loan, and transport and how much do you have left?
Which is why you pay next to fuck all at that level of earnings.
You only start repaying your loan once you've graduated and you're earning more than £21,000 a year. After that, you'll pay back 9% of anything you earn over £21,000. So if you're earning £26,000 a year, you'll lose £450 in loan repayments - £37.50 each month.
One of the biggest issues with tuition fees is that people legitimately don't understand how the repayment schedules work.
It's a tax (not debt) because you're not required to repay it unless you're in work.
And the interest on what remains pushes up your total owed by how much per month?
It doesn't matter, because if you stay at that level of earnings for your entire career you won't pay it back, but I'd suggest anyone who's deterred from going to uni because they'll have to pay £37.50 a month for life (while they're working) really has no place being there.
For fuck's sake. You don't have to pay it back.
How hard is this concept to grasp?
I've tried before. People genuinely don't get it. It might be they simply don't want to get it.
ftfy
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