There is a war, but other than a few weeks in May/June it's pretty much been all bad news for Russia.
There's no real way for the Russians to exit without either total defeat or regime change at home, so expect it go on well into 2023.
The only thing pro-Russian twitter seems to have left now is 'time is on our side', which sounds great but actually depends on an erosion of western support which I'm not sure is going to come. The Russians have badly underestimated both Ukraine and the West.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 11-11-2022 at 01:45 PM.
And for everyone else.Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd
Mainly them.
If you're neutral in this one you're pro-Putin, it's that kind of business.
There is something a bit fishy about this retreat. There is an angle where it makes immediate sense, but Russia didn't really need to do it unless it has suddenly become very, very casualty averse, and the Ukrainians have barely pressed them whilst doing it, despite having spent the last month having every single one of their local probing operations bashed to pieces. There is a lot of bollocks doing the rounds about it being the precursor to serious peace discussions, and now would be a good time to sort something whereby they can both be seen to win and lose, so hopefully there is something to that.
Why on Earth would Ukraine agree to any peace deal?
They're smashing it, Kherson Liberation �� Kyiv����Latest���� @JerusalemDiary confirmed it.
Aye, just wait until they encounter the Republican Guard.
Russia pulled back because they couldn’t maintain supply to that side of the river. Ukraine should counter attack as much as they can through the winter on the frozen ground because Russia will regroup and come back in the spring with 120,000 new recruits and a new stockpile of weapons. Their factories need to catch up on what they pissed away the last few months.
Probably this, back home, or in Putin's lair. If twenty thousand of them went in some kind of Dunkirk-style nightmare trying to get back across the river he probably starts losing the public, or whoever it is he is concerned about losing.
Where they have fallen back to now looks to me (military expert) more like a stalemate position all the way along the front, which (they think) suits them better.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 11-11-2022 at 05:40 PM.
This sounds correct to me. I genuinely think people overrate how much we (the collective West) can force negotiations on parties that are not interested in it. At the end of the day, we are mostly observers.
Ukraine’s government doesn’t have the legitimacy to give up large chunks of the country. The scenes from today show that. Putin has never pretended to have any interest in negotiations so what is everyone talking about.
That sounds like more of a thing over in the US, especially in sections of your right. Here and in Europe I don't think there is much other than support for a Ukrainian victory except on what I would hesitantly call (for fear of TTH reprisals) the extreme left of politics, and also ethnic minorities tend to be far more pro-Russia or at least their first instinct is to whatabout regarding Iraq.
I mean, I walked past Horse Guards earlier today (the ceremonial HQ of the British military) and they had a Ukraine flag flying rather than a union jack, which kind of sums up where we are.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 11-11-2022 at 06:49 PM.
We get it from both flanks and just a general sense that conflicts revolve around us. That seems to be a shared view from Noam Chomsky to Glen Greenwald to Tucker Carlson.
The midterms have resolved any issues of funding. The squishy left is squishy but people mistake them for the activist anti-US imperialist left. The nativist right took a big hit in the midterms and will just force leadership to work with Pelosi because she and McConnell are the only two US politicians who actually understand how to whip a caucus.
Europe are observing at best, but if America turned the taps off then Ukraine starts sell-out talks the next day. Not that they will, obviously, so long as the suffering is all on the European side.
That is the realist position sure. It involves the parties involved acting with perfect rationality - which seems ludicrous to me. Or that their incentives align with yours / ours. And they don’t. We think business leaders act more rationally than most. But watch as Musk and Zuckerberg just burn billions when they should just cut and run.
The other flaw in the logic is saying “so long as the suffering is all on the European side”. Find me a single Ukrainian who would agree with this.
This is a perfect proxy war for the good old US of A to run their erstwhile major strategic opponent into the dirt, without even having to get their hands overly dirty, they're not going to 'turn the taps' off even if the more idiotic parts of their political establishment want them to. It also serves as a clear warning to Chairman Xi et al lest they get any ideas above their station. Hegemony isn't going to be ceded lightly.
Eurovision 2025 is going to be in Sevastopol.
Which is great for them; but the European economy is in bits and will be for some time, our politics is going mental, and those millions of Ukrainian refugees are never going home regardless of what happens there. Nobody signed up for this in February, and we ought to be sufficiently detached to try and bring it to an imperfect close whilst the situation is relatively stable, even if the Americans want it to go on forever.
Ukraine aren’t going to want to do that. The next four months is their best chance to regain lost territory. At the very least they’ll want the land around the nuclear plant back.
Europe has no leverage in this situation.
They can want whatever they want. We shouldn't be underwriting it, and even keeping our heads up America's arse isn't impoverishing ourselves.
Thankfully, as if it did the French, Germans and Italians would have chucked the towel in months ago.
Macron was in Moscow with his white flag before Russia even launched the special military operation.
Europe has lots of leverage. Russian gas and oil could be flowing by Sunday; it could decisively block any prospect of Ukrainian EU/NATO membership (and chuck a giant spanner into NATO functions generally); every weapon they have comes through European airspace (as do American planes floating over the Black Sea); most of the military training has a European component; and half of the special forces assistance will be European. Europe and Turkey could have it closed down relatively soon if they wanted to.
Yes, Europe could have 'ended' this war fairly sharpish if it had sided with Russia.
It would be more siding with itself, like the Americans have.
Well, that is how Orwell envisioned it, I guess.
Lewis would have appeased Hitler. Poland has nowt to do with us.
The European economy is adapting to life without Putin's oil.
Yeah, it's only poor people not being able to afford luxuries like heating and food. They're adapting to live via photosynthesis now.
Life really is good in your ivory tower, eh?
I think something like this dragging on could give renewable energy a (mild?) kick up the arse. So there's that. At least with that kind of energy, it'll largely come from within rather than having to import fuel.
He heats the house with the radiance off his own self satisfaction.
My man was previously saying Europe was unaffected so give him time please.
Go fuck yourself.
Germany's government have rolled out a number of measures to support low income families with tax breaks and energy payments. I'm not sure what non European countries have done.
You really are an awful human being. The worst type of champagne socialist.
What the fuck are you on about you utter abortion of a human
Take it to DMs.
It’s a comment on the wealth of content available from your posts. Sat there as you do commenting on how the poor are coping without a single hit to your lifestyle.
Can it not be true that the Germans in particular have managed to mitigate a lot of the forecast energy problems (notably via gas storage) and also that some people in various countries are going to struggle with costs, partially as a knock-on effect from the Ukrainian war.
That's not fair Fois Gras isn't immune to inflation, you know?
Seriously though, I would love for some people - especially those supposedly from the left that think our own suffering is worth it to help Ukraine - to do my job for a day.
Where did I say that in my post? You're genuinely making an argument up on something I didn't write.
Europe are having to adapt which means different governments are taking measures to get off Russian oil. I've not said that no one is impacted or that poor people need to crack on.
On the ropes.
Disgusting.
You’d be asking them to even acknowledge the worthless, let alone care.
That doesn’t come close to tucking yourself into your goose down bedding at night and satisfying yourself that your solar panels are worth all their lives.
😂
Some lovely needle to kick off the weekend.
The strong foundation TTH is built on.
Excellent way to spend a morning.
Time for a WDYTOE.
Was it Kiko who also had a massive family do during the height of lockdown?
Get him in the bin
I lolled at “goose down bedding”.
He traveled to Scotland to pick up his boots.Was it Kiko who also had a massive family do during the height of lockdown?
Get him in the bin
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