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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #4301
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    I put a fiver on Cristal Palace Cat at Kempton and Stevie G which put me back up. Tomorrow looks fun, all the big priced places. Mon the super yankees

  2. #4302
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.

  3. #4303
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    I'm pretty sure Sky run that offer for the whole festival.
    As expectedly, Sky is no longer risk free. Horse must finish top 4 for money back. Scammers.
    I'm a twit

  4. #4304
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel View Post
    If it is one of you cunts in here who has a 250k cashout from betfair with one race left to run. I want in.
    He has 20k just chilling in his account balance, too. Mad man

  5. #4305
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    I like the amount of people questioning his decision to cash out by saying he should have done a £350k lay of the reverse result. If he had another £350k he should have let the bet run.

  6. #4306
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Tremendous cash out.

  7. #4307
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Golf w/e 21 March

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    What a first round in Kenya. Everyone on -3 or better (although a couple are still playing) with Meronk leading the pack at -6 right now.

  8. #4308
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

    ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

    Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.
    Last edited by niko_cee; 18-03-2021 at 02:38 PM.

  9. #4309
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.

  10. #4310
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    How did that guy's accumulator (at the odds posted) effectively add up to a 100,000-1 bet? Is there something I don't know about 5-folds? Does the initial stake roll through into each new race (would that make a difference)?

    ie £65 returns from 5 @12/1 gets stuck on the next at 4/1 etc

    Edit - Doesn't seem to change the maths.
    This one?

    Toggle Spoiler


    I think you've just described how fractional odds and accumulators work. 13*11*5*26*5.5 = 102245 * 5 = 511225

    He took a £250k cash out, and the remaining leg fell at the first. Stunning.

  11. #4311
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    I was just multiplying all the fractions together and getting a significantly different outcome, I didn't know you added 1 on to each denominator.

  12. #4312
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Yeah fractional odds are a load of nonsense. Not as bad as US odds, though, which continue to melt my brain each time I encounter them.

  13. #4313
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I come across US odds A LOT in the course of researching golf stuff and I don't know how they can be considered a superpower while using them. It's absolutely mental.

    PLUS FIVE HUNDRED, MAN!

  14. #4314
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    They're a steaming pile of shit.

  15. #4315
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Front runners stealing races is getting a bit old now. Awful riding on display.
    Good when it works out for you though.

    I need Royal Kahala in the next for £180 off 80p. I’ll be pretty gutted if it comes in with that little amount put on

  16. #4316
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Denny McCarthy has absolutely shat his pants on the last two holes.

    Was looking decent for a place tomorrow with an outside chance of winning but he's fucked it hard.

  17. #4317
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He's meant to have ability but he never really impresses me in practice, he got done by the Bear Trap™. Tringale is well in with a shout though if conditions are anything like this tomorrow.

    Pleased to say that after blackout for the first three days, the final day of the Magical Kenya Open will be broadcast tomorrow morning as the TV equipment has finally cleared customs at the port of Mombasa. It's those little things that make the Magical Kenya Open so magical.

  18. #4318
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    It's amazing how much Wise struggled since the 6th onwards.

    Would have been horrible to watch had The Computer thrown his name out.

    From -14 and looking good for a win to just about holding on to a -7.

  19. #4319
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    A place/dead heat for Kruyswijk depending on the places your bookmaker offers which is lovely.

    Betfair offered 7 places so he just sneaks in for a full place but it also means that Burmester just missed out on a dead heat.

  20. #4320
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Both of the dozy fuckers bogeyed the last, although Burmy I think would have been denied the full place by Gonnet who I thought had retired about 7 years ago.

    Still a 175/1 place for Kruyswijk even at my stake of 0.4pts is a profit on that tournament, somehow.

  21. #4321
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I'm in profit across both tournaments with my stake.

    If Tringale can go on to do something special and McCarthy recover after his back 9 last night that would be lovely.

  22. #4322
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    Aaron Wise with a 4 putt for a triple bogey to take himself from -10 to -7 and bring those on -6 (like Denny) into play was a heroic move.

  23. #4323
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Think he's getting a part place with that monster birdie putt at 18. What a scummy way of making a weekend profit from triple figure warriors.

  24. #4324
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Aaron Wise is desperate to see Denny McCarthy place.

    Edit: Annoyingly Tringale missed a birdie at the 18th which would have given me a part place.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 21-03-2021 at 09:54 PM.

  25. #4325
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Computer this week returned 30.15pts from 20pts (one could have done better than that with bolder staking than mine).

    This week is going to be an absolute mess as we have the Kenya Savannah Open or something running Tuesday to Friday (fuck knows), and the WGC Matchplay starting Wednesday which is one of my favourite events of the year (matchplay rules) but obviously all normal strokeplay betting norms are out the window so it'll be a bit of a voyage of discovery for the computer. Hopefully get something up for both tomorrow night.

  26. #4326
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Amazing stuff Jim. The computer is a thing of beauty.

  27. #4327
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Kenya Savannah Classic

    This tournament may have a different, less magical name than the Magical Kenya Open, but it's essentially the same tournament again with almost exactly the same field. What is different is the odds: pretty much anyone who had a decent week last week has been slashed, with those who struggled drifting like a barge. With this tournament playing Tuesday to Friday (I'm really not sure why), you'll need to get on quickly but the computer laps up this sort of thing: reversion to the mean should be rife, in both directions. If there are double-contenders we won't have them, but here are six to play.

    Otaegui 45/1
    De Jager 66/1
    Angles 70/1
    Besseling 70/1
    Lieser 125/1
    Cockerill 175/1

    WGC Matchplay this evening

  28. #4328
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    These DJ gambles will be interesting to see how it pans out.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/book...-stable/480295

    My tipster actually tipped Perfect Predator at 7/1 and then when doing the write up noticed the gamble, so I also have a trixie for Notnow Seamus, Blood Eagle and Perfect Predator where £8 returns £678 so I’m fully onboard with the fix. Also have a single for The Gold Bug at 6/1 and reverse forecast for the 2 in the same race - Gold Bug and Getaman. Hopefully I’m well off by 4:30.
    I'm a twit

  29. #4329
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    WGC Matchplay

    Toggle Spoiler


    Corales Puntacana

    Toggle Spoiler

  30. #4330
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    I've followed on the group winners.

  31. #4331
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I've only just realised that Im and Bob Mac would meet in the last 16, but whatever.

    Add Scheffler in place of one if that clash worries you.

  32. #4332
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I have a 5 fold with a small stake on Matsuyama, Bez, Ancer, Morikawa and Im to win their matches tomorrow as well as a larger triple of Matsuyama, Ancer and Morikawa.

  33. #4333
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Bob Mac taking down Na was pretty epic, as was Mr Large getting done in by Rozner, gallic shrugging his way down the fairways in his central casting van de Velde visor.

  34. #4334
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.
    I'm a twit

  35. #4335
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    What’s in Kenyan water that’s made everyone amazing at golf. Gonna need -25 to win.
    Without looking at the course there are probably a low number of hazards (and they possibly don't come into play often), easy to read greens, a low rough, wide fairways etc etc.

    Lack of wind helps too.

    Tee position and pin location are probably very favourable meaning players can be aggressive too.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 25-03-2021 at 01:17 PM.

  36. #4336
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Generally the four things that defend a course against par are design, firmness, wind and pins. Don't think Karen's had any of the above these two weeks. The other end of the spectrum, you go to one of the tougher Open layouts, or a US Open and they'll usually have all four in abundance.

  37. #4337
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    I know nothing about golf, but surely if a load of people are -15 to -25 below par, then the par is wrong.

  38. #4338
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Par is set for the ordinary competent player, rather than top class touring pros. It's also almost meaningless.

    It's just the number of shots you're expected to take reaching the green + two putts.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 25-03-2021 at 02:09 PM.

  39. #4339
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I've also got £15 on Lanto Griffin @ 2.63.

    With the way Rory has been playing lately (including yesterday) it's free money.

    Also, lol at Justin Thomas.

    Edit: Rory 3 up after 3 holes. Free money indeed.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 25-03-2021 at 07:32 PM.

  40. #4340
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Ancer being 2-0 up after the 14th only needing a draw to go through but losing the next 3 holes (before tying the last) to lose 1-0 is seriously annoying.

    He better not lose his playoff.

    Edit:
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 26-03-2021 at 08:39 PM.

  41. #4341
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    This is such a crapshoot. Great watch though. I'm now rooting for Rahm for my so far quite auspicious fantasy team.

    Will do a silly eightfold tomorrow morning for interest.

  42. #4342
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Yeah I've enjoyed watching it so far.

  43. #4343
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Oh and MacIntrye

    Get fucked DJ.

  44. #4344
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

    DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.

  45. #4345
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    He just hit driver to 2 feet on a par 4 and American TV had no idea, complete disgrace.

    DJ managing to rile up Kevin Na with an early scoop and then losing to him in the last 2 holes, absolute scenes.
    Na didn't even have to "claim" a win on that hole either. He knew he'd take him down.

  46. #4346
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Bob McIntyre 😎

  47. #4347
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    If you used a bookie that pays out for last 8 (Sky Bet did) then he only needs to beat Monsieur Perez in this game for an each way place.

    Mad how basically every top name has been knocked out, very different form of the game this, brings the madheads like Poulter and Bubba right into play. My approach wasn't quite right in the end but still got Bob running.

  48. #4348
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I've put £5 on Fleetwood, Garcia, MacIntyre, Rahm, Harman & Spieth to win their matches today.

  49. #4349
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    American golf coverage really is horseshit.

    They missed MacIntyre's insane drive on the 18th yesterday and it looks like they've not got Tommy Fleetwood's hole in one today.

    Edit: Seems they did get the Fleetwood hole in one.

  50. #4350
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I’m on Povetkin to beat Whyte by any means. 11/4 Just because I don’t like Dillian Whyte.
    I'm a twit

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