These bet-builders seem to be very in with the twitter tipsters and the zombies that follow. All the trappings of accies with the added enjoyment of having to keep a count of how many touches the left back has made with his left foot. I'm certainly surprised it's led to disagreements on stats and potentially higher instances of match-fixing (Oxford booking vs Arsenal?).
Are those guys paid by bookmakers to promote stupid kinds of bets? I wouldn't rule it out.
Many are affiliates, yes. I don't use them myself. I find a good rule of thumb in any match that looks tasty (like last night) is: result (unless too close to call), over 2.5 goals, over 2.5 cards, over 6 corners, pick a dangerous player from each team over 0.5 shots on target. Usually comes out at decent odds.
If one team is clearly going to smash the other (Arsenal v Brighton, United v Everton etc) then swap the SOT bet for all the attacking front line of the favourites over 0.5 SOT.
Just watched and the shot was clearly going wide, even though Kepa touched it. Obviously sucks that it changed from won to lost, but if they use OPTA stats and they're saying it doesn't count, then that's that.Originally Posted by Lofty
Had a betbuilder on 365 last night, every leg came in and was shown to come in on their site. Check at full time and they chalked off Pereira shot on target having previously shown it as in, letting me down for £180
Some twitter kick off about it from others but not confident they will get anywhere.
Shots on target always intrigue me. Is there a point at which an aimless punt upfield, that happens to end with the 'keeper [and would have gone in without them intervening] becomes a shot on target?
Oh I know, OPTA even had it as a shot on target initially though so I am grinding this axe for a while yet. I know from friends if you bet regularly and moan enough at them they usually throw you something to shut up.
I feel more sorry for the guy who had Jorginho tackles in his bet that they voided because he didn't start, feels very naughty that one.
If only there were some better way of assigning value to attempts on goal.
I had a look at the ol xG table for the first time in a while last night. West Ham being in credit while sitting in 17th is a good laugh.
As if you needed any other proof xG is nonsense.
What do you mean in credit? Understat has them as biggest underperformers and 9th on xPTS.
I have never understood what this means. What do you want it to do, mirror the league table?
They've created more than they've allowed.
Well yes. Otherwise what's the point of it? What does it tell you? West Ham have been shit all season which is why they're 17th. xG and xPTS can't tell me otherwise.
Levante pretty much broke xG last season.
I had a bet builder miss due to Opta not counting a Partey tackle. Load of uproar on Twitter showing a second tackle. 365 changed to win the next day.Had a betbuilder on 365 last night, every leg came in and was shown to come in on their site. Check at full time and they chalked off Pereira shot on target having previously shown it as in, letting me down for £180
Some twitter kick off about it from others but not confident they will get anywhere.
Understanding xG was a great step forward in my life. I now treat all its doubters like I treat people who don't like sport: with utter contempt.
xA probably even better.
xG is a better predictor of future performance than goals, it's a simple as that. Market odds shits on both, of course.
My Lofty Special on the Liverpool game being let down by Salah not getting a shot on target.
£15 on Palace at 3/1.
I’ll be utterly shocked if they don’t win with this Jorginho-Gallagher double pivot
Ive gone with lots of goals, cards, fouls and corners at 70/1 for this Arsenal game.
Not enough goals. Needed more than 4. Doing the same again in this Barca- Real Madrid game.
Top 10 for this schmo (my actual selections a total whiff). Maybe I'll wean myself back onto them.
I can get killed for this... But VN prime minister to resign within 24hrs. Odds available anywhere??
And there he goes...
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vi...n-4561196.html
Abu Dhabi - Perez 33/1
AMEX - Hoge 35/1
Hoge
My laptop is at my parents' house, left it there before Christmas. No spreadsheet = no golf bets for me.
I haven't had time this week but:
Zalatoris
£20 on Forest Brighton double at 3.63/1.
Batted
Magnifique.
Farmers
Zalatoris 14/1
Homa 22/1
Farmers: Zalatoris, Montgomery, Hossler
Doobay: net worth on Mugilroy, + Aberg
DDC
Meronk 28/1
N Hojgaard 50/1
Homa
Yeah top shout that Manc, cheers. Hope McIlroy brings home the bacon now.
Wholesome.
In addition to my usual card bets I've got money on Paul Mullin to score.
Edit: And Ollie Palmer for a goal too.
Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 29-01-2023 at 04:30 PM.
Fucking get in there my son.
Never staked so much on a 3/1 shot in my life. Should have been 5/2. Margins.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 30-01-2023 at 10:55 AM.
You'll be getting banned from whatever bookmaker you use. I got banned from Ladbrokes years ago for seemingly small time shit.
I'm surprised I haven't been thrown out, am about three grand up on golf in the last two years. I do help my cause by losing on other sports, though.
Sometimes I think it's patterns more than money won. I got booted from Ladbrokes because I saw a pattern that if Godolphin had more than one horse in a 2yo maiden then bet on the second string. I was up at least £1k over the course of a flat season which isn't mega money but I didn't really bet on anything else horse racing related outside of the big stuff so maybe I got flagged as potentially having inside information. This was about eight years ago so no idea if the pattern is still profitable. My second go round with Paddy Power was pretty middling.
Last edited by Ben; 30-01-2023 at 11:23 AM.
I'm not too clued up on golf but on football the things that bookies chin you for are 1) betting on the obvious misprices that 100 other people are on 2) betting on lines that are value compared to betfair, or that shorten significantly before the off 3) regularly betting anywhere near 100% of the maximum allowed on the selection.
No idea what sort of stakes you're on Jim but chances are it's not too hard for them to manage the risk they take on from your bets by just laying it off elsewhere. Hell they might even have you pegged as a sharp player and value the information your bets give them.
I'm not doing 2) or 3), but I'm pretty much doing 1). I use the same formula that I developed in the first lockdown and would be amazed if others haven't cottoned onto it independently by now, but maybe if there is a herd I'm sufficiently detached from it to evade the censors. It's about 85% data and 15% vibes, the 15% can be crucial in avoiding bad selections but presumably also costs me sometimes, and probably keeps me safe from the algorithms.
Manc has had a better start to 2023 anyway so I can't be that good, but I've found I'm amazingly good at staking in the last year or so. Might just be a lucky run.
Yeah thanks Jim, good shout.
I won my first bet with Stan James about 15 years ago which was a 3 team accumulator, and they limited my account to £2. They went under, so needless to say I had the last laugh.
How can a bookmaker go under?
'Nah, Stan, we can't go with the market on this one. Red Rum 100/1 I reckon.'
They were just hopeless when it came to adapting to being an online bookmaker, must have been headed by a bunch of absolute boomers because Stan James circa 2015 was proper hall of fame gambling. They were bought out by Unibet rather than going bust though iirc.
I'm still claiming the last laugh.
Ras Al Khaimah
Arnaus 25/1
Shinkwin 28/1
Pebble Beach
Power 22/1
Dahmen 35/1
My sheet has a red line through Dahmen this week, the second least preferred of the top 50 or so on the board. Fascinating range of methods available.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote