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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #4651
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I'm not too bothered from here, even if Cantlay wins. Despite the whole thing being a massive fraud, I'm pretty content with the process if my two top picks are 1st and 2nd with a couple of holes left.

  2. #4652
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Fucking pussy rules officials suspending play for a bit of rain.

  3. #4653
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Fairly sure Cantlay has the greater bottle of the two, though it's a bit of a race to the bottom in that regard.

  4. #4654
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Cheers Jim. Both Cantlay and Collin showed some stones near the end with their putting. Money back and a little more.

  5. #4655
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Yeah thanks Jim.

  6. #4656
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    An odd and quirky week in golf this week, coming before the US Open next week (the qualifying for which is running at the moment: RIP Rickie again). The European Tour are running something called the 'Scandinavian Mixed', which is a tournament with 78 men and 78 women all playing on the same leaderboard for the same prize pot and trophy. This is a bit of a chin-stroker of a concept (I can't see how the men won't dominate, but I guess we'll see) and the bookies seem to agree, as they have thus far declined to put up a market at all. As such I will be giving that one a swerve and sticking to the PGA Tour event in the US this week.

    Palmetto Championship

    Normally we would have the Canadian Open this week, but for the second year running it's been cancelled as the Canadians are being a lot more tight about covid than the incredibly lax Americans are (it amazes me how few of them give a damn, and occasionally, as Jon Rahm found out, this comes back to bite you). For a replacement event, it's back to South Carolina for a hastily arranged tournament at Congaree. This is classic Carolinas sandy/swampy type territory, burned down by Sherman in 1865, and at some point after that someone decided to build a golf course on what was left. Coming directly before a major, the field is an unusual mix of the bottom-feeding guys you would normally only see in opposite field events, but also Dustin Johnson and a few other bigger names wanting a tune-up before Torrey Pines on the other coast. As ever with these new courses that no one in the field has played, research is required to find out who actually has played them, but off the books. That research, allied to the standard computer methods, leads me to this little squadron.

    Fitzpatrick 14/1
    Glover 30/1
    Varner III 40/1
    Werenski 80/1
    Garnett 125/1
    McGirt 600/1

  7. #4657
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Betfair exchange has it up but £0 has been staked on the market.

    It sounds a bit mental.

    Will they be using handicaps or something to help the women be able to compete? Able to tee off closer? Surely they're going to get smashed on the par 5s?

  8. #4658
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The women will be from forward tees (as they always are), but even then it is quite difficult to set up. For example if they set it up so the tee shots are landing in the same place then the men will always have a more lofted club in, so to equalise it they will need to have the women land the tee shots further up than the men to have the same club in. Even then, I'm pretty sure the men would be better with wedges and around the green, even if it's by less. So I am a bit curious to see how they end up doing it. The women playing are far fron the world's best, too.

  9. #4659
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Sky offering women only for it.

  10. #4660
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Talk to me about Kevin Kisner @Jimmy Floyd.

  11. #4661
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    A player I like, and probably knows the territory over there, but has shown no form this year. His ball striking has receded to average tour level, which you can't afford when you're a shorter hitter. I'd want 66/1 or higher.

  12. #4662
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    "It’s a golf course that really on paper does not suit my game," said regular visitor William McGirt, apparently confirming that view. "When you look at the scorecard and you see 7,800 yards, I’m not a bomber. So you have a very long golf course with no real penalty off the tee for spraying it."

    Love the bluffing.
    I'm a twit

  13. #4663
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I saw that Luke List had the course record too and thought, nah, it's not that easy. Somehow BC and I have both alighted upon HV3 so here's hoping the method works.

  14. #4664
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Am relenting and putting up four for the Scandi Mixed (men only market) to keep myself interested for the next two days. SkyBet are doing 5 places for 1/4 the odds.

    Fox 16/1
    Besseling 30/1
    Kruyswijk 40/1
    Aberg (am) 66/1

  15. #4665
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Euro 2020(1) bets:

    £10 on BTTS in Italy/Turkey match @ 2.4

    £5 on Lewandowski top scorer @ 26
    £5 on England to finish third in their group @ 8.5
    £5 on Czech Republic to win their group @ 11
    £5 on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to score a headed goal each @ 13
    £5 on Kane & Lukaku to score 3 or more, Yilmaz & Depay 2 or more and Ferran Torres 1 or more @ 8
    £2 on Poland to reach the quarters & Lewandowski to score 5 or more @ 23
    £1 on Turkey to reach the semis, Benzema top scorer & Bellingham best young player @ 301
    £1 on Turkey to reach semis, Denmark win group B & Bellingham best young player @ 501
    £1 on Kane & Mbappe 4 or more goals and Jota, Insigne & Yilmaz to score 2 or more @ 51.

    I only feel confident in the Turkey/Italy BTTS tonight, I can't wait to see all the tournament bets crash and burn.
    Last edited by Sir Andy Mahowry; 11-06-2021 at 02:01 PM.

  16. #4666
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I’ve three free bets to use on the England matches, but dunno what to do.

    So far my only bets are Hungary to score the fewest goals @5/1 and Kante player of the tournament @40/1

    Oh and Netherlands to win it @14/1 but only cos I get a free £5 bet every time they win a group game.
    I'm a twit

  17. #4667
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Top team goalscorers:
    Austria - Baumgartner @15
    Denmark - Kjaer @67
    Spain - Ferran Torres @4.5
    Netherlands - Depay @2.5

    Tournament goals:
    Denmark - u5.5 @1.8
    Poland - u4.5 @1.73
    Croatia - u5.5 @1.8
    Austria - u3.5 @2.2
    Ukraine - u4.5 @1.83

    Lukaku to outscore Mbappe @1.8
    Netherlands Austria straight forecast @3

  18. #4668
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Here is my list of mug punts for Euro '21

    Golden Boot: Robert Lewandowski @ 25/1 (4 places)
    Exactly 131 goals scored: @ 18/1
    Yann Sommer most clean sheets @ 18/1
    North Macedonia to reach QF @ 16/1
    Scotland out on penalties @ 14/1
    Top Chelsea goalscorer Mason Mount @ 4/1
    Austria to concede the most goals @ 16/1
    Joao Felix Best Young Player @ 10/1
    Total penalties scored: Over 14.5 @ 8/13
    Wales last in Group A @ 11/10
    Tournament forecast: 1 Portugal 2 France @ 40/1
    Finland to score fewest goals @ 7/1
    Group C most goals @ 9/2

  19. #4669
    Senior Member Offshore Toon's Avatar
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    I stuck a fiver on Turkey to win a couple week back. It is written.

  20. #4670
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    US Open

    Toggle Spoiler


    (I may take a break after this one, I get so busy in the summer which limits my research time each week. We'll see)

  21. #4671
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    All in one last time. Thanks for the past few months Jim.

  22. #4672
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Apologies if this has been asked before but do you do level stakes for every pick?

    +293 in 6 months is crazy. Thanks for sharing.
    Last edited by Baz; 14-06-2021 at 07:23 PM.
    I'm a twit

  23. #4673
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    No he doesn't

  24. #4674
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I don't. I stake 5pts e/w and distribute them. This probably isn't an optimum method so I don't share it but it is used for the overall calculations. Last week's for an example:

    Fitzpatrick 14 1.50
    Glover 30 1.00
    Varner III 40 1.00
    Werenski 80 0.75
    Garnett 125 0.50
    McGirt 600 0.25

  25. #4675
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ambling-addict

    Some great rides described in that

  26. #4676
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Anyone who likes a bit of group permutations bingo:

    At 5pm tonight, Australia play Jordan in the final round of their World Cup qualifying group. Jordan must win this game to have any chance of progressing to the next round.

    At 7pm, Saudi Arabia play Uzbekistan knowing the Jordan result - if Jordan haven't beaten Australia, then a draw takes both Saudi/Uzbek through. Currently 21/10 the draw. Might be worth getting on early if Australia go a couple ahead in play. My only concern about going early is I don't know if Aus (evidently the stronger side on paper) will roll over for Jordan.
    Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 15-06-2021 at 09:17 AM.

  27. #4677
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Thoughts on Homa? @Jimmy Floyd?

  28. #4678
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Thoughts on Homa? @Jimmy Floyd?
    I'd want three figures minimum.

  29. #4679
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    If we somehow end up only drawing against Iraq, MBS will threaten a chainsaw massacre on all the Saudi players if they don't throw the Uzbek game. They'll do anything to stop us from progressing.

  30. #4680
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I've got you through with a point as long as Jordan don't win.

    Must be a new world record for permutations. Mood said to be 'relaxed' in the Lebanon camp.

  31. #4681
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Hungary haven’t scored yet.
    I'm a twit

  32. #4682
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Got BTTS here. Come on Pen-land.

  33. #4683
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    It'll never last but got to get a comment in here whilst Dickie Bland shares the lead of the US fucking Open well into his second round.

  34. #4684
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He is on the ultimate divorced dad mad bender. Nearly 30 years of utter mediocrity and now suddenly lighting up everything he touches.

  35. #4685
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Don't think any of my runners will be in it, but this US Open final day is setting up to be absolutely brilliant.

  36. #4686
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    I was fed whispers of Koepka earlier in the week. Praying for a bottle job.

  37. #4687
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    Early start in the morning. Shaping up to be a problem.

  38. #4688
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    I love it when Bryson fucks up.

  39. #4689
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Rahm and the chokemaster general going toe to toe to the finish line with a whiny Bryson wheezing his way back into the pack, this is what major Sundays are all about.

  40. #4690
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    That bunker shot

    The scientist is on the ropes.

  41. #4691
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    While part of me would love it if Rahm won here I'd also be a little gutted that it would happen when THE COMPUTER isn't on him.

    Although I do think that would be very fitting for Rahm.

  42. #4692
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I was out of my chair for both those putts on 17 and 18, so yeah, fuck Rahm, but also, love Rahm. What a player.

  43. #4693
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    That was brilliant.

    I didn't think he'd get either of those.

  44. #4694
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Louis has choked.

  45. #4695
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He already has the grand slam of runner ups in majors and now halfway through a second one. Absolute all time great of finishing second.

  46. #4696
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    I wish we could have been there for the final Rahm train. :-(

  47. #4697
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    He was just too short to back, 7/1 or something. Christ if I'd been on him I might have woken up the neighbourhood for his putt on 17.

    I'll have a little break now and be back for the Open. Had a slightly meh run recently which has taken the 2021 profits down to about 65%.

  48. #4698
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Both Rahm and Hideki picking up majors does feel a bit of an affront to the computer, but then I guess that's how it works.

    Feel a bit for Little Louis and his grand slam of second places (seeing him up against Bomb and Gouge is quite funny), but then I've always resented him as a bit of a fraud for that Open win when he just scampered off in the best conditions of both first days.

    Has the meh run coincided with whichever of Yev or Boydy joined the train most recently? Coolers!

  49. #4699
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Also, loved that ball up a tree moment. That was it for me though, west coast US Majors are a bit of a pain in the backside from a Monday morning perspective.

  50. #4700
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Yeah, I'm on about 5 hours' sleep but it was worth it to see someone actually win a major rather than be handed it by crumpling arseholes as is normally the case.

    The main enemy of the computer are game-raising bastards who come out of nowhere after shoddy runs of form, Rahm wasn't that (he was just too short) but Hideki and Mickelson definitely were, as have a few others been.

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