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Thread: Coronavirus Death Thread

  1. #18251
    Senior Member 7om's Avatar
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    I think you've brought up a lot of good points there, Jimmy.

    The only thing I would say is we are unsure about the effiacy of the Oxford vaccine against the South African variant. The study you are referrring to when they talk about not protecting against mild/moderate illness was done in quite a young population apparently. The results for that study or the test on severe disease still haven't been published. I guess that begs the question, how likely would a surge in South African variant cases be in the UK if we opened up? And would all the people who have been given the Oxford jab (Pfizer have reported, in another yet unpublished study that their jab is protective) here be protected? It's an unknown.

    I think they are shit scared of hospitals being overrun again. What is the wait list now for elective operations, for example? Last I heard was three years. That line of thinking may be right or wrong, but I reckon that's what they are guarding against.

  2. #18252
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    How can you say there’s zero evidence of Christmas having an effect?
    I'm a twit

  3. #18253
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    I said the media wasn't equipped to handle any of this in March and the nonce tendency said I was running interference for the government. I should have written it up properly at the time and added 'Contributing Editor' to my social media. Oh well.

  4. #18254
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    How can you say there’s zero evidence of Christmas having an effect?
    Because there is zero evidence of Christmas having an effect.

    If anything, the rate of increase in infections was probably starting to slow by then.

  5. #18255
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Isn't their concern regarding cases simply that it increases likelihood of mutation and therefore vaccine failure/higher risk of severe illness?

    Team Sauna is so disillusioned and defeated it is now batting for the other side.

  6. #18256
    Senior Member 7om's Avatar
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    The vaccines won’t fail.

  7. #18257
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don View Post
    Isn't their concern regarding cases simply that it increases likelihood of mutation and therefore vaccine failure/higher risk of severe illness?

    Team Sauna is so disillusioned and defeated it is now batting for the other side.
    Exactly my point - if there was actual evidence of a dangerous variant doing dangerous things, then lock us down as per January. Now the discourse seems to have moved to 'But there might be a variant in the future!' which is not a basis to extend this level of lockdown.

  8. #18258
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    So even if everyone is vaccinated, we still need to get cases down to ~0 to avoid further mutations? Why don't they do the same with the Flu then? The Flu has form for birthing viruses far more deadly than this.
    Last edited by Spikey M; 11-02-2021 at 01:49 PM.

  9. #18259
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    And if that's the goal, are we to keep international travel closed forever? Because there's no way every other country in the world will do the same.

  10. #18260
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    Cracking post Jim.

    The general gist of it ties into what I was getting at the other day, in that there is simply no logical reason currently to extend lockdown on its current basis for any longer than to the end of March, possibly even the end of Feb, but most of the noises from those feeding into that decision are going the other way and I too, don't really understand why.

    And given we've been locked down for what, six weeks now, there's a classic contradiction in the messaging that suggests numbers aren't falling and things are still bad as they've been. In that taking that line and running with it very much implies that lockdown doesn't actually work. Which we all know is bollocks, but when the messaging is as negative as it is then that's the only logical conclusion if you take it at face value.

  11. #18261
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Everything The Science has said since summer (publicly at least) has been with a view to covering its arse in the eventual inquiries and balancing any blame they [unfairly] get for the first phase with not being listened to second, third, fourth time round.

  12. #18262
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    They were practising shit science though, that even I could have told them was bollocks, so for my money there should be some blame if we have to have an inquiry (I'd rather put the whole thing down to 'shit happens' and invest the time and money towards working out a proper gameplan for the next time ), not that it would have made that much difference as the only thing that would have was the nuclear option of closing borders, but apparently viruses don't respect those....
    Last edited by Yevrah; 11-02-2021 at 02:09 PM.

  13. #18263
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7om View Post
    I think you've brought up a lot of good points there, Jimmy.

    The only thing I would say is we are unsure about the effiacy of the Oxford vaccine against the South African variant. The study you are referrring to when they talk about not protecting against mild/moderate illness was done in quite a young population apparently. The results for that study or the test on severe disease still haven't been published. I guess that begs the question, how likely would a surge in South African variant cases be in the UK if we opened up? And would all the people who have been given the Oxford jab (Pfizer have reported, in another yet unpublished study that their jab is protective) here be protected? It's an unknown.

    I think they are shit scared of hospitals being overrun again. What is the wait list now for elective operations, for example? Last I heard was three years. That line of thinking may be right or wrong, but I reckon that's what they are guarding against.
    The problem here is that scientists are trying to bring the scientific method into public policy.

    Science, as you presumably know better than me, is not a set of facts, but a process aimed at establishing truth. When truth is not yet known, the process must continue until it is. Therefore a great many things are 'maybe' and 'perhaps' until the scientific method has exhausted all other possibilities. This makes for good science but makes for dreadful public policy. If we made public policy on the basis of what 'might' go wrong, then we would all be living in caves. Ladders would definitely be banned; so would all forms of automotive transport, presumably, until we could stop them from blowing up and crashing into each other. We'd probably all have to wear special hoods to stop acid rain from getting into the water mains. I could make up any number of similarly far-fetched examples, and extending covid lockdown indefinitely to protect against any future issues is another one.

    There comes a point when politicians need to stop 'following the science' as if it is fact rather than method, and start making decisions for everyone's benefit on the balance of all available evidence.

  14. #18264
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Public Health England do make policy along those lines. It's just that normally they're only listened to to a point.

  15. #18265
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    And that is because journalists report all the maybes as OH MY GOD LOOK AT THIS because they are under severe pressure to break stories constantly or die. This feeds into public unease, and public unease coming back via focus groups makes Boris Johnson think that really he should listen to 'the science' or he might become unpopular.

  16. #18266
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    THE SCIENCE took such a prominent stage in all this because it uniquely tapped into a time where the vast majority of even semi-educated people were moronically wearing 'believing in THE SCIENCE' as some sort of badge to elevate themselves above the droves of idiots who believe in flat earth, creationism and other such manifest nonsense. The government, or more likely Cummings were acutely aware of this and that's why Whitty, Valance, Swiss Van Tam and FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE were front and centre from day 1.

    What they didn't realise was that in the case of a pandemic THE SCIENCE actually follows the virus and doesn't precede it, so while you should absolutely be listening to the science, following common sense would have been the much better thing to do.

  17. #18267
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    As someone pointed out on Twitter, we've actually donned the actual SCIENCE stuff (testing, sequencing, vaccines and vaccination), making it all the more lol/facepalm that we can't manage the low-end stuff like closing airports or hanging randomly selected teachers.

  18. #18268
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    That we are doing 50% of the world's genome sequencing is almost half the problem, in that no one has a clue about the Taco Bell Arkansas variant that inevitably exists, but we shit ourselves about the Little Shittinghampton variant.

  19. #18269
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Not really sure how you can claim Christmas had no effect.

  20. #18270
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Wouldn't you expect cases to be higher in mid-Jan than they were during the Christmas period (or at least stay as high) what with the 2 week lag and all?

  21. #18271
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It's generally thought that the peak of positive cases was the arse end of December (that 7 day trend line shows it fairly neatly). With a 5-7 day lag (it's probably 7-9 but let's say 5-7 for caution) from point of infection to a positive case being registered, that would suggest that infections had already peaked before 24-26th Dec. With a widespread Christmas mixing effect you would have seen cases peak far later and almost certainly peak higher.

    Similarly, you can see cases start to fall before lockdown actually starts on the 4th, because people had been scared indoors by then. My personal theory is that no one actually did anything over Christmas and that's why infections didn't soar.

    It's close in dates but entirely coincidental.

  22. #18272
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    Wouldn't you expect cases to be higher in mid-Jan than they were during the Christmas period (or at least stay as high) what with the 2 week lag and all?
    The peak was 9th January.

  23. #18273
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The peak was 29 December.

  24. #18274
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    The peak was 29 December.
    Yeah, you're right, I misread the graph. Dunno how I got 9th Jan.

    It still starts to dip before Christmas, then rises slightly, than takes off after it.

  25. #18275
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    The dip is just reporting lag (no one got tested on Christmas Day and the surrounding days). If you look at the 7 day curve on the 4th panel down here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases you can basically see, apart from the 4 day reporting deviation at Christmas, a smooth curve up to the peak and then a smooth curve down since.

  26. #18276
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    I read that there was a minor but noticeable bump on the London-Manchester-Dundee trail a couple of weeks afterwards.

  27. #18277
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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  28. #18278
    I used to be funny.
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    I feel like the big test is seeing what happens when the kids go back to school.

  29. #18279
    More successful than most Magic's Avatar
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    What A levels lol.

  30. #18280
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    6 out of 10 deaths in UK were disabled people?



    #OTC #OTS

  31. #18281
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    The news is firing zingers all over the gaff tonight.

    It costs £2k a day to house each of these fucks in ICU

  32. #18282
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Add disability benefits to pensions and expensive houses as the things to raid paying for it all.

  33. #18283
    I used to be funny.
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    Let's not be too hasty, here.

  34. #18284
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Don't worry, the lads are all over it:

    Toggle Spoiler


    I haven't been to a sauna in years, can you stay 1m apart?

  35. #18285
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Fuck knows how they managed to get away with it but my Bannatyne's was allowing 3 into a 2mx1m room

    We're hitting up one of those special London male saunas to celebrate full reopening, son.

  36. #18286
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    We'll have vaccinated almost everyone who it's worth vaccinating by August, so what in the sweet fuck is that article about?

  37. #18287
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    If there is one thing liable to undermine popular support for these measures, and it probably is only this one thing, it will be making us wear masks like dickheads in August after we've all been vaccinated just so they can keep the borders open.

  38. #18288
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    I'm alright with wearing a mask as we do now, but staying 1m apart suggests many things one would assume should be long open by August, won't be.

    And that, can fuck right off.

  39. #18289
    Senior Member 7om's Avatar
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    Lol fuck off with that article. 80% of the population will have been vaccinated by then so why would we extend restrictions TO THE END OF THE YEAR.

    I’m close to joining the Open The Clubs club.

  40. #18290
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    As I've been saying since April it's because they (politicians and scientists alike) have no concept of human beings as human beings, they just see them as economic actors and disease vectors respectively.

    If you obsess on those two things at the expense of humanity this is what you end up with, telling people that they can't hug family members in order to preserve their ability to have a socially distanced drink at Pitcher and Piano.

  41. #18291
    Senior Member 7om's Avatar
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    Im probably going to end up waiting until my parents have been vaccinated, hopefully by the end of this month or early March. Drop another 28 days on top of that to give it time to work and I’m abandoning distancing. The vaccines work and I won’t be told otherwise by Boris.

  42. #18292
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    Been really disciplined throughout, but the second my mom gets vaccinated I'll be doing what I like and avoiding old people.

  43. #18293
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    I can't be bothered to actually look at the numbers but if the vaccines keep 60-90% of people out of hospital with severe disease that's still 10-40% of people who could get it and overwhelm the NHS right?

    I assume that's why come August we're still 1m apart? No?

  44. #18294
    Senior Member Queenslander's Avatar
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    The Australian Open will finish without fans due to a 5 day lockdown.

  45. #18295
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    @Giggles will be delighted to hear that my wife's cunt cousin with cRiPpLiNg AnXiEtY has somehow conned her way into getting a vaccine today.

    On the plus side this should free up some time from posting Mental Health memes all day. It's probably condemning someone actually at risk to death but hey ho.
    Last edited by Spikey M; 12-02-2021 at 07:30 AM.

  46. #18296
    Senior Member Queenslander's Avatar
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    I wonder if I can get it early down here for mental health reasons...

  47. #18297
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    You lot aren't getting it at all, or at least not until everyone else on the planet has had 4 or 5 just to be sure it's safe, no?

  48. #18298
    Senior Member Queenslander's Avatar
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    Starts next month.

    Hopefully I can just walk into the nearest pharmacy.


    I know plenty of reasonable people who want to hold off not me Ill be getting it asap.


    https://www.9news.com.au/national/au...0-0d7242d33acd
    Last edited by Queenslander; 12-02-2021 at 07:40 AM.

  49. #18299
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56030384

    The UK's rules on quarantine hotels for travellers arriving from Covid "red list" countries are less stringent than those enforced in Australia.

    The BBC has seen a copy of the UK government's official requirements for hotel operators ahead of the policy starting on Monday.

    It spells out the rules for handling travellers for 11 nights of quarantine.

    Australia's system, introduced early last year, is seen as a gold standard internationally.
    for fuck sake

  50. #18300
    Senior Member Queenslander's Avatar
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    I was just reading that very article.

    Cant compare the 2 surely?

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