We've had people running barbecues and organising parties in the middle of a national lockdown, it's a bit naive to think they won't be straight back into the pubs and clubs as soon as restrictions are relaxed enough.
We've had people running barbecues and organising parties in the middle of a national lockdown, it's a bit naive to think they won't be straight back into the pubs and clubs as soon as restrictions are relaxed enough.
We will get back to normal eventually, I think the biggest issue will be the amount of industries going tits up and people out of jobs.Originally Posted by Bob Sacamano
It will take a lot for the hospitality and travel industries to recover. Could be the final nail in the high street as well.
I cant see many new houses being built for a long time either, that will have a huge effect on the construction industry.
If they're playing football behind closed doors and they open the pubs they will be as busy as England world cup games. It would be insane.
I'm not gonna lie. As soon as it's open, I'm going for a pint.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-toll-is-wrong
Apologies if this is old news, but it's an interesting read on why the daily death figures that we hear about are wrong.
"the virus is unlikely to be seasonal in nature, according to a paper published yesterday by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine."
Meanwhile, the report summary is:
"In summary, although experimental studies show a relationship between higher temperatures
and humidity levels, and reduced survival of SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory, there are many
other factors besides environmental temperature, humidity, and survival of the virus outside of
the host, that influence and determine transmission rates among humans in the ‘real world’. "
I love journalism, even in an academic setting.
11am pints, 12.30pm kick off and losing coupons
Semi-final results.
(brackets first leg scores)
Truly a golden generation.
Also, USA! USA! USA!
In the absence of any proper recovery numbers, I'll take our critical number as a sign we're not that knackered.
Our critical and recovered numbers are not even a thing, we stopped counting weeks ago.
Look at ze Germans and their anal recording methods.
Yeah, I should grab those hospital numbers from the briefing for something more tangible.
65,000 cases, 16,500 hospitalised. 2,500-ish in critical care.
Last edited by Shindig; 09-04-2020 at 08:41 PM.
Those critical numbers are the most made-up of a sketchy data set in the first place.
All our data is shit but what else can you go off? "Here's a cumulative number not accounting for discharges or deaths."
At least for France, it's people in ICU.
Deaths. The only thing you can count without testing is deaths. Obviously that's going to get muddled with Flu cases fucking up your data, but if you have 5000 deaths you can shine a torch on Germany, China, America, South Korea and whoever else is actually testing. You can work out what your other figures are from there... ish.
Yes but deaths are not reported accurately either (in terms of dates).
I only found out today that 'Care Home Deaths' aren't counted towards the daily total. What the actual fucking fuck is that?
Yeah. It's impossible to get a feel for anything. Especially with up to 50% of people having zero symptoms and anyone not about to carc it being told to self isolate and shut the fuck up.
How do you have any trust in the figures when most people that have it / have had it aren't counted? Deaths. It's the closest you can possibly get.
Well this "serious, critical" column on worldofmeters actually corresponds to people in ICU for France. I reckon that's a very relevant metric. The following is the number of people in ICU over here:
Last edited by Adramelch; 09-04-2020 at 09:22 PM.
It's a fair alternative, but I'm not sure it gets rid of the issues that counting the dead has. You still have to test them. You still have to factor in the people that don't go to hospital when they should have. You still don't get a feel for the people that get no/minor symptoms.Well this "serious, critical" column on worldofmeters actually corresponds to people in ICU for France. I reckon that's a very relevant metric. The following is the number of people in ICU over here:
Sorry Boris didn't die Giggles. Cummings reportedly ill.
It's a good metric to track the evolution of the virus (and, thus, the possible peak) in a country, which is what I am looking for. Not as relevant if you're looking to get icu/case rates, or comparisons between countries, I agree. In comparison to deaths, however, I do believe it's probably updated more regularly by hospitals than deaths are.
I like to see a visual representation of what's going on with hospital capacity. There's a lot of shit metrics around but at least that's more focused.
You'd all do well to watch tonight's Horizon on iplayer. Cleanest explanation of how we got to where we are and where we are headed.
Pubs wont open for 6 months not 3 you blokes are mental.
Edit: And even then they will have strict capacity no shoulder to shoulder.
We need a vaccine before things can start to turn around.
Last edited by Queenslander; 09-04-2020 at 10:29 PM.
Deaths seems to be the right number to be looking at, but it's so skewed that we won't know today's real number of deaths for x amount of days. It's why trying to read the curve is so difficult.
Cummings? Beautiful if he dies.
Given you're not counting care home deaths, you might also find yourselves in a similar situation to France where they just randomly start getting reported and then you get a curve like that:
I assume the people in charge have more accurate information than that, but still.
My last EVER pint in a pub was a Coors fucking Light.
I'm a twit
The most telling bit for me so far is that the quickest a vaccine has ever been produced was 5 years, for Ebola.
Soz, just to be clear, I meant this one: Horizon, 2020: Coronavirus Special - Part 1: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000h3nm via @bbciplayer
I recommended the same to my boy and he's watched the one I think you're talking about too, Yev
That was the one I watched Taz. There wasn't anything in there about what's to come though, so your initial comment on it did confuse me.
Completely differing circumstances and not really true. Ebola has existed since the 70s. The vaccine was basically discovered in 2010-11 and it was subsequently bought by NewLink. During the Ebola crisis of 2014, Merck bought it from NewLink and pumped money into testing it in African nations and it was put onto the market over in Jan 2015.
It took 5 years from discovery to market, not existence to discovery. The Canadian scientist that discovered it died poor while her discovery sold for over 50 million dollars (money went to NewLink who bought it off Canadian Government).
A corona vaccine will have a shorter timescale because of the obscene amount of money being thrown at it and it being an offshoot of COVID.
Ah my bad, the other one went big on Ebola so thought you may have watched that.
I just thought it hit home how unlikely it is that these cunts are going to risk a second wave and that the vaccine may well be the only way out. The stuff about the antibodies expiring and immunity possibly only lasting for a matter of months also had potential to be bleak.
Just to temper my language in case anyone takes this as me saying it's bad that we're spending this money. I'm not. The Ebola vaccine has discovered by luck off a 2 million dollar grant, 30 years after the disease arrived. The search for an HIV vaccine has cost around 2 billion over 30 years (this is my quick back of a fag packet estimate because the only stats available are for Prevention which includes Condoms/PrEP/Clean Needles/Education). It technically exists but only works 30% of the time. 85% is the lowest a vaccine can be considered effective which is what your flu shot is.
COVID-19 will receive about 1 billion in funding over the next 12 months.
edit: My mistake, growing up in the 90s makes me think the 70s were still 30 years ago. Ebola is 45 years old, HIV is 35.
Good excuse to stop obsessing over the numbers. Let's be honest, in the absence of football we've all latched onto the death counts as a way of giving our lives some aspect of unpredictability. (Or in the case of John Arne, admirably combined the two.)
Also: New York is grim.
Although lol at Cuomo calling the virus evil like 9/11. That's a great way to frame it if you're trying to forget about the fact that your leadership decisions are actively costing human lives every day.
And it affecting white people.
Thats what defines the money not the speed.
On licensing of a vaccine, the FDA, EMA can do whatever they want. What were realistically going to see is clinical trials running concurrently and real time evaluation of safety data while they're also testing for antibody production.
Normally you're looking at a few years of sticking it in animals and monitoring toxicology and all that fluff. I imagine that has been rushed through with preliminary data only.
It is feasible to get enough data for a vaccine license within a year and the regulators to rush it through approval. Then you've got the time it takes to mass produce, which will take a monumental effort for the vaccine companies.
I wonder how many care home deaths are not yet reported. From the French and Belgian numbers, and knowing that, for example, UK haven't reported theirs, it feels like the current death toll could quite a bit bigger.
At least Boris is ok.
I'm trying to figure out if that's a breathing tube that's part of the headgear. Also, the North East's finally getting a Nightingale hospital in one of the Nissan training centres. Progress.
Numbers are in:
953. 720 from last week because .... yeah.
Last edited by Shindig; 10-04-2020 at 01:41 PM.
I’ve seen real daily numbers and they have been bouncing round between 6-700 for a few days now.
I wonder why they don't go with those smaller numbers? Post-mortems are what they are, I guess.
It’s more registration. The daily death figures give us the most accurate running total because they’re all 100% Covid positive. But as a day to day measure of the progress of the epidemic they’re useless. Hospital admissions and ICU admissions are very good. Current beds occupied too.
Alright, good to know. I guess, even with the delay, deaths aren't exponentially getting worse.
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