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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #2851
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    BTTS Galatasaray vs Benfica
    I'm a twit

  2. #2852
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Deja Vue in the 3.45 Fontwell I’ve been told will win. 3/1 atm and the GOAT is riding it too.

  3. #2853
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    (It did not.)
    I'm a twit

  4. #2854
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Haha, my boss gave me it from someone in his syndicate group. Twat.

  5. #2855
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    Accrington Stanley to get relegated £7.50 @ 9/1 (possibly higher elsewhere)

    AFfs It’s 16s on B365.
    I'm a twit

  6. #2856
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Also a £5 EW (5 places on Paddy Power) on Didtheyleaveuoutto in 3:20 Ascot tomorrow @ 8/1
    I'm a twit

  7. #2857
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Wishful thinking.

  8. #2858
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    13:00 Ascot- Air Horse One @ 9/1
    14:10 Ascot - Reikers Island @ 11/4
    14:55 Haydock - Blacklion @ 9/1

    Mulitples on all of the above.

  9. #2859
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Nailed Liverpool tonight.

  10. #2860
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    got two Doubles on:

    Liverpool & Barca for 3.8
    and
    Draw in both matches for 10 or so.


    Lyon feels like a wild card though.

  11. #2861
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    From my position of almost complete ignorance I was thinking Lyon might be strong dark horses to give Barca a bit of a shoeing tonight.

  12. #2862
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Yeah they probably are.

  13. #2863
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazuuurk View Post
    got two Doubles on:

    Liverpool & Barca for 3.8
    and
    Draw in both matches for 10 or so.

    Well that worked out pretty well.

  14. #2864
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    FFS, I was on a double of Athletico win and Schalke/City draw at 16x

    Fuck you Sterling.

  15. #2865
    Senior Member Pleb's Avatar
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    SkyBet offering Arsenal (1.11), Valencia (1.57), Napoli (1.18), Chelsea (1.25), Benfica (1.5) and Inter (1.33) at 5.16

  16. #2866
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    On this:



    Don't have very high hopes for Dynamo, though.

  17. #2867
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    If anyone wants a copy of the 2019 Weatherbys Cheltenham Guide to arrive digitally to their inbox, PM me your email address and you may be blessed by the horse fairy.
    I'm a twit

  18. #2868
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    I’ve had loads of winners today but that’s the issue with Lucky 31’s if it’s small stakes and one or two don’t win

    Predicted 4/6 (one placed in the Irish but I didn’t look at it and the 3.00 I bet on Southfield Stone but didn’t pick him lol) on the ITV 7 too. Waiting on Glen Rocco for some more money

  19. #2869
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Last race on both Lucky 31s have fucked it.

  20. #2870
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Saints & Levante double @ 33/1.

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    Toggle Spoiler


    Gutted I only put £1.25 ew. Also, the first went off @ 9 - do you not get best odds when betting through the machine in store?

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    Dolos looks a lovely price for tomorrow.

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    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Reading scored the winner in the 90th minute. Bastards.

  24. #2874
    Administrator SvN's Avatar
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    My acca is waiting on Solihull Moors for around £250.

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    30/1 home favourite seven fold came in for me. Only about a 75 quid profit but still great.

  26. #2876
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    5 horse acca for tomorrow:
    Leopardstown 14:10 Tombstone
    Leopardstown 15:10 Silver Star
    Leopardstown 16:15 Dakota Moirette
    Leopardstown 17:20 Soviet Pimpernel (absolute banker)
    Huntingdon 14:00 Jimmy The Digger

    £2.60 EW Canadian returns £50.18

    Easy money.
    I'm a twit

  27. #2877
    Senior Member Mazuuurk's Avatar
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    On a double of Draw in both of tonights games.

  28. #2878
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    CHELTENHAM DOSSIER 2019


    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL CONTENDERS DOSSIER 2019

    Welcome to the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL CONTENDERS DOSSIER 2019

    The modern day Festival bears no resemblance to those I first encountered during the early years of producing Festival betting advice starting in 1993. In those days there was a wide spectrum of owners and trainers that could win races over the three day Festivals. Now we have a situation where the jam is spread mainly between the big jumping stables in Ireland and to a certain extent amongst three or four British yards.

    When Cheltenham announced the extra day, my heart sunk as those three day Festivals were far better than the modern day era. The young whipper snappers that fill the stands nowadays haven’t got a clue what they have missed. By the climax of the 2019 meeting most of them won’t remember what happened over the previous four days, as they drink their way into oblivion! How the game has changed.


    Finding winners at the Festival is the ultimate aim of punters who frequent the Festival over the four days, whether they are watching on course or viewing the action as it unfolds by other ways and means. Perhaps it is the bragging rights driving them on. Those who attempt to punt in every race actually enjoy the thrill of taking on the bookmakers at the premier jumps Festival. Personally my own plan is to always aim towards locating a winner a day and maybe top it all up with a couple of decent priced placed horses. You cannot make out a realistic case for backing a shed full of winners over the four days of Cheltenham in March. Sometimes many punters fail to land a winner or only back one or two ‘shorties’ throughout the entire four day rollercoaster. There is no real shame about failing to back winners at Cheltenham considering the competiveness of the racing.

    The best advice I can give is to perhaps go into the Festival with a pre-set betting bank that you should stretch to cover your bets over the four days. Patience is always a virtue at Cheltenham. Of course everyone likes to get off to the best start but having a betting bank in place will focus the mind to help you through the meeting.
    If you are able to secure value in your betting strategy you hopefully have every chance of success with some of your investments.

    The aim of this dossier is to analyse the credentials of those horses I feel will have every chance of being competitive in their chosen races at the Cheltenham Festival.
    Final selections will be made at the 48 hour declaration stage and sent out via emails. Those featured in this dossier will give you an idea concerning the type of horses I will focus upon during the build-up to the meeting. Of course some might not appear due to training problems or unsuitable ground, along with other excuses that are bound to arise as the Festival approaches. Every year something that has attracted the interest of the Press and punting flock usually cries off just before the events are set to begin. By the time you read this something that’s fancied won’t be running.


    My own punting experience over the years at the Cheltenham Festival is that of a rollercoaster. Those featured in my books and dossiers will produce jubilation and despair running neck and neck. The pain of the losers is sometimes frustrating, particularly if selections are going well and happen to meet trouble in running or just fall in a hole when the chips are down. Don’t forget the pace of the Festival races is often unforgiving, particularly for the younger, inexperience contenders who will be travelling probably a stride or two faster than they have encountered in other races they have performed in during their short careers.

    The main aim is to discuss the prospects of the Grade 1 Hurdles and Chases and put up suggested contenders that look to have the right credentials to win or at least be placed in these races. I can’t stress enough that I will finalise bets at the 48 hour declaration time. I would not rule out some horses popping out of the woodwork right at the death and they will be sent out on the daily emails and texts for you to consider. Obviously the full plan of each race won’t be known until the jockeys are announced and the ground conditions are given each day. I have a feeling watering will be on the cards even if some rain falls during the meeting. The weather looks likely to produce some of the wet stuff leading up the meeting but at the time of writing this dossier it is in the lap of the gods, as to how much or how little will fall.


    The biggest headache for me is always trying to find an angle on how to play the 10 handicaps run at the Festival. This year there were 897 horses entered in the handicaps before the weights were announced. The bookmakers appear to be looking at the ‘Trends’ as to the position of those contenders favoured by the recent ratings of the eventual winners over the past six years. I have attempted to make suggestions in these races but everything will definitely be subject to change where the handicaps are concerned.

    The Cheltenham Festival week is here to be enjoyed as a spectacle. Hopefully we will have some success and back some winners and placed horses. This is a meeting that I always advise punters to back horses ew. The modern bookmakers will give the choice of ‘enhanced extra place terms’ and some of them look tempting, particularly where the handicaps are concerned. If I make a cup of tea on a race where there is value on offer and protect my stakes, then this is always my own aim at the big meetings at Cheltenham and Aintree.

    I’ve hit the bullseye many times in previous Festivals at Prestbury Park, with some monster returns on big priced horses that I’ve backed each way, to at least cover the stakes. They don’t pop up every day but if you spot something that you feel happy to punt remember they don’t all win but when they do savour the moment when it goes your way.
    Buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is Cheltenham in March!


    DAY 1
    Champions Day - Tuesday, March 12 (Old Course) - prize money £1,175,000
    1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y £125,000
    Fate of the Favourite: U 3 1 1 1 0 5 3 2/0/0 5 3 4 7 2 JF1 1 2 2 0

    Winner’s Position in the Market:
    5 1 1 1 0 2 0 4 6 4 3 6 J2 J1 1 2 0 3

    Winner’s SPs: 7/4F, 3/1F, 7/2F, 20/1, 6/1, 40/1, 17/2, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1,
    10/1, 5/1, 7/2JF, 2/1, 4/1, 25/1, 9/1
    Winner’s Age: 6, 7, 6, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6
    The famous Cheltenham roar will herald the start of another Cheltenham Festival at around 1.30 pm on the opening day. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is never an easy race to solve but five of the last six renewals have gone to a runner with a single figure SP. Willie Mullins has took this race between 2013-2015 with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan, Nicky Henderson won it with Altior in 2016. Gordon Elliott produced a shock result with 25/1 shot Labaik in 2017. Last year twenty runners went to post in this event with Tom George Starting the Brish challenge off with the Summerville Boy. The previous British winners of this race were Altior in 2016 and Cinders And Ashes trained by Donald McCain in 2012.

    KLASSICAL DREAM (Willie Mullins) is the top rated Irish novice (r148) entered in this race. He was ridden by Ruby Walsh and the partnership fought out a protracted duel from the second last at Leopardstown in February with his stable companion ARAMON (r147). Both horses put up fine displays with only a head between them, as Klassical Dream just got up in the dying stride to land this Grade 1 event. There is a poignant story concerning the three owners of the winner, two British and an Irish friend. One of the British based owners unfortunately died last year. He had always wanted to have a runner at the Cheltenham Festival with a reasonable chance of running well in a Grade 1 race. I consider his contender here will have a serious chance of at least being in the frame. (Also entered in the Ballymore on Wednesday)
    Aramon enters calculations here following a series of fine displays in Ireland, including easily winning the Grade 1 Future Novice Hurdle by 10 lengths at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
    FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (Joseph O’Brien) This four-year-old son of Kapgarde was an impressive winner over the course and distance on Trials Day in January when storming clear of his rivals to win the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle very easily by 13 lengths. He was subsequently purchased to run in the colours of J.P. McManus. The owner already has a very strong hand in the Triumph Hurdle and his new acquisition looks likely to attempt to become the first juvenile to win this race since the French bred Hors La Loi III, trained by Martin Pipe romped up the hill to win by 17 lengths in 1999.

    The British challenge this year includes the Betfair winner AL DANCER (Nigel Twiston- Davies) (r152) who is top rated on official figures and remains unbeaten during his campaign of four outings as novice, with his latest two wins being achieved in handicaps at Cheltenham in December (Class 3) and then running out an easy winner of the re-arranged Grade 3 Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Ascot in February. The last winner of the Supreme to contest a handicap at some point was Brave Inca in 2004.
    Of the other British contenders I will include
    CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (r140)
    (Nicky Henderson), who is a grey son of Stowaway and a strong looking chasing type. He has run twice in novice hurdles winning impressively at Newcastle and Newbury. I actually prefer him to his stable companion ANGELS BREATH who won on his debut over hurdles in a Grade 2 event at Ascot in December but the form of that race does not look that strong and he then flopped when long odds on to win at Kempton in February. Another way to look at that run is he was giving the eventual winner 5lb and they were clear of the field at the finish. He might be difficult to for forget here.
    ELIXIR DE NUTZ (Colin Tizzard) (r150) has won three, five runner, novice hurdles including a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham on good ground in December and the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on soft ground at Sandown in January. This progressive front runner is a very good jumper and his connections are keen on his chance of making all in the Supreme. My concern is that he might be vulnerable to something coming from off the pace and flying past him at the foot of the hill.

    Contenders to Consider: ANGELS BREATH, AL DANCER, ARAMON,
    CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM, ELIXIR DE NUTZ, FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES, KLASSICAL DREAM,

    2.10 Racing Post Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade1) 1m 7f 199y £175,000
    Fate of the Favourite:
    3 2 1 F 7 7 2 3 F 8 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1

    Winner’s Position in the Market:
    4 4 1 4 2 5 2 3 3 3 4 1 1 7 1 1 1 1

    Winner’s SPs: 8/1, 11/2, 5/4F, 9/1, 7/1, 15/2, 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 6/1,
    6/1, 8/11F, 8/15F, 33/1, 4/6F, 1/4F, 1/4F, 5/6F

    Six of the past seven renewals of the Arkle have gone to an odds on favourite, with the 33/1 winner in 2014 being trained by David Pipe. The likely field of runners might help to provide some much needed competition helping to create a more vibrant betting market than in recent years.
    DEFI DU SEUIL (r150) (Philip Hobbs) He won the JCB Triumph Hurdle in 2017 and is another Festival entry owned by J.P McManus and he has made three appearances over fences this season, winning at Exeter in December and finishing second at Cheltenham in the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase on New Year’s Day. He reversed the form of his previous meeting with LOSTINTRANSLATION (r149) (Colin Tizzard) when they locked horns again in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown. The Hobbs runner probably put up his best performance of the current campaign when taking up the lead from two out and staying on really well up the Sandown hill to win by three quarters of a length. He was the ante-post favourite for this race at the end of February and those at the front of the betting market (1st & second Favs) on the day have won six of the last eight renewals of this event. Connections have indicated his first choice will be the JLT.

    GLEN FORSA (r150) (Mick Channon) clashed with KALASHNIKOV(r148)(Amy Murphy) at Sandown in February when he outgunned the Newmarket trained contender by 19 lengths. Firstly I don’t think the runner-up was suited by the right-handed track and I’m not taken by the progeny of Kalanisi who eventually appear to go the wrong way. However, the Channon trained victor was mightily impressive when jumping and travelling with supreme confidence throughout this contest and is a fast improving two mile novice chaser.
    LALOR (r151) (Kayley Woollacott) is a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April and was thrown into the deep end on his debut over fences when winning a Grade 2 two mile chase on good ground by 7 lengths at Cheltenham in October where he beat the highly regarded Dynamite Dollars. The pair met again at Sandown in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase with the Cheltenham placings reversed by the Nicholls runner beating Lalor into third place by 13 lengths. The ground was soft on this occasion and that probably did not suit the Cheltenham winner. Should the ground come up good again on the opening day of the Festival, Lalor would have every chance to land another Grade 1 event but this time over fences.

    Contenders to Consider: DEFI DU SEUIL (Also entered in the JLT), GLEN FORSA, KALASHNIKOV, LALOR LOSTINTRANSLATION


    2.50 Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f £110,000
    Fate of the Favourite: 2/5 6 3/0 8 9 P2/3/6 3 1 2 F 2 8 8 7 2 1

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 3 4 3 4 4 2 0 3 1 0 2 0 3 2 5 3 1

    Winner’s SPs: 11/2, 8/1, 7/1, 7/1, 8/1, 7/1, 50/1, 7/1, 5/1F, 33/1,
    5/1, 14/1, 28/1, 10/1, 8/1, 11/1, 9/1

    Winner’s Official Rating: 141, 131, 142, 136, 133, 129,
    130, 143, 142, 142, 143, 129, 132, 145, 146, 148, 155, 142
    Winner’s Age: 10, 7, 8, 10, 8, 9, 8, 7, 8, 7, 8, 6

    This is the first of the 10 handicaps run at the Festival and they are all notoriously difficult to solve.
    There was a gradual increase in the handicap rating of the winner from 2014 -2017 until last year when it dropped back down to 142(see above ratings list).
    The top rated horse at the weights is the ‘Giggy Horse’ Alpha Des Obeaux on 162 and set to carry 11-12. If he fails to stand his ground, the weight of those on 157 will rise by 5lb. I don’t expect the top three in the list to run but I also can’t predict who will take up their engagement here. GIVE ME A COPPER (r145) (Paul Nicholls) is the early market leader (6/1). On his last outing in a Class 2 handicap chase on soft ground at Sandown he finished fourth, beaten 12 and quarter lengths behind Classic Ben. The third placed horse Kimberlite Candy jumped poorly in the Eider at Newcastle.

    MISTER WHITAKER (r151) (Mick Channon) might be of interest and will step up to tackle three miles for the first time after chasing home the very impressive Cyrname at Ascot in January. I consider the Channon chaser likely to be suited by this step up in trip.
    UP FOR REVIEW (r146) (Willie Mullins) finished third behind Invitation Only and Alpha Des Obeaux when they last met in the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase over three miles and one furlong on soft ground.

    With 103 original entries, I would rather see the final field of 24 runners before finalising any definite selections in this and other handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival.
    Contenders to Consider: GIVE ME A COPPER, MISTER WHITAKER, UP FOR REVIEW

    3.30 Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y £450,000
    Fate of the Favourite: 1 P 3 2 1/9 1 6 0 3 0 1 3 1 5 1 1 2 1

    Winner’s Position in the Market:
    1 4 2 9 1 1 6 5 9 7 1 4 1 5 1 1 2 1

    Winner’s SPs: 10/1, 9/2, 33/1, 7/2JF, 7/4F, 16/1, 10/1, 22/1, 9/1,
    11/4F, 11/1, 13/8F, 9/1, 4/5F, 5/2F, 5/1, 4/6F

    APPLE’S JADE (r165) (Gordon Elliott). She must be the most improved and versatile hurdler in training. She has won four races this season over trips between two miles and up to three miles. Her season began with an easy success in a Grade 2 hurdle by 11 lengths at Navan in November. She then won three consecutive Grade 1 hurdles, at Fairyhouse winning the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle over two and a half miles by 20 lengths at the beginning of December. On her next two outings at Leopardstown she landed the Christmas Hurdle by 26 lengths and followed up at this venue with another superb performance to win the Irish Champion Hurdle by 16 lengths at the beginning of February. She has an obvious chance in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle, particularly if you take into account her 7lb Mares’ allowance.
    BUVEUR D’AIR (r172) (Nicky Henderson) Back in July his connections tweaked his wind, sighting the fact he was getting older and the surgery would help maintain the physical aspect of his ability to remain at the top of his game throughout his campaign during the 2018/19 core jumps season. His season began in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in December, where he was up against the new second coming in Irish wonder horse Samcro. Buveur D’Air took a keen hold during the early stages. Once the pace began to quicken from three out he was soon in the lead and ran on to outpoint the Irish challenger, who had no answer to the superior ability of the reigning Champion Hurdler who went on to win impressively by 8 lengths. The Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton was considered to be a formality and he was sent off at odds on favourite at 1/4. It all went wrong and he presented the bookmakers with an unexpected Christmas windfall when finishing second beaten a short head by stable companion Verdana Blue. The pair might well meet again at Cheltenham, in March.

    His third outing came at Sandown in February where he made no mistakes and easily won this Listed hurdle by 2 lengths. Whatever was wrong with him at Kempton we will never know, but it should be remembered that he performed below his best at Sandown in 2018 before going on to win the Champion Hurdle. He does have a habit of throwing in the odd poor display but always seems to bounce back when the big day arrives. If he is an ounce below his best form this time around when taking on Apple’s Jade giving her 7lb she will murder him.

    LAURINA (r155) (Willie Mullins). Her connections have a tricky dilemma. She could run in the mares’ hurdle and would probably destroy the field. If she runs here I’m not sure she will be able to turn over the two at the front of the betting market. She is very talented and a battler but against other mares she has the ability to come out on top. It’s a no brainer in my opinion.

    Looking at the potential make-up of the field in the Champion Hurdle there is the prospect of some pothunters being declared to hoover up the decent prize money for the placed horses. In previous Champion Hurdles there was always something that ran on into third place at big odds. Just a thought if the field is big enough to stretch to paying three places as there were 24 entries remaining at the confirmation stage on the sixth of March.

    GLOBAL CITIZEN (r159) (Ben Pauling) has run consistently on all four outings this season. He made all to win an Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Newbury at the beginning of December and also won the Grade 2 Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock in January. He has a lot to make-up on his Irish rivals but at around 33/1 he might be worth an ew bet if you find a bookmaker paying the first 4 places or more.

    Contenders to Consider: APPLE’S JADE, BUVEUR D’AIR, LAURINA, GLOBAL CITIZEN

    4.10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y £120,000
    Fate of the Favourite: 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 F 1 3 3

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2

    Winner’s SPs: 20/1, 2/1F, 6/4F, 5/6F, 4/7F, 8/11F, 8/11F, 6/1, 4/6F, 7/2, 9/2
    Winner’s Age: 7, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 9, 6, 7, 8, 6, 7

    It would appear logical for LAURINA (r155) to run in this race rather than the Champion Hurdle but her stable companion BENIE DES DIEUX (r155) is also strongly fancied to defend her crown here having won this race at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. Both of these talented French breds have an almost flawless ability to perform very well in this type of event. Although Laurina has run twice this season, winning a two runner Listed Mares’ races by 48 lengths at Sandown in January and also romped home on her latest outing in another Listed race at Punchestown by 6 lengths without being extended in February. However if there is one chink in her armoury, she does have the tendency to jump big at some of her hurdles, She might come unstuck at some stage if spending too much time in the air, losing valuable ground in a Grade 1 event. She is a very talented mare with the speed to burn off the challenge of her rivals in mares’ races.
    On the other hand BENIE DES DIEUX has endured time on the sidelines through niggling injuries but when she has made it to the racecourse has proved to be as talented as her stable companion and last season won on all four of her outings at Carlisle & Naas(Listed Chases), and also over hurdles at Cheltenham and Punchestown (Grade 1).

    Of the British entries LADY BUTTONS (r149) (Philip Kirby) has won an all four of her outings this season in mares’ races over fences and hurdles. Those wins came at Wetherby in a Listed hurdle on good ground in November and she also won a Grade 2 mares’ hurdle on good ground at Doncaster in January, when scrambling home in the dying stride to win by a neck. In my opinion she would have won more comfortably had her rider not had a lapse of concentration in the final half furlong. Her chase successes were achieved at Newbury in a Class 2 Handicap chase at the beginning of December on soft ground. She has also won a valuable Listed mares’ chase at Doncaster at the end of December. There is no doubt she is a tough and genuine mare but whether she can turn over the ultra- strong challenge of the Irish mares’ is of course the big question. However at her price she would be a value each way bet to make the frame at Cheltenham.
    Contenders to Consider: BENIE DES DIEUX, LADY BUTTONS, LAURINA

    4.50 Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 4f 44y £70,000
    Fate of the Favourite: P 1 7 F 0 7 5 1 8 P/0 6 F 8

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 0 3 2 5 4 1 0 3 4 3

    Winner’s SPs: 9/1, 9/2F, 20/1, 9/1, 8/1, 12/1, 10/1, 13/2F, 16/1, 8/1, 12/1, 16/1, 13/2

    Winner’s Official Rating: 123, 133, 133, 135, 135, 139, 132,
    140, 140, 137, 140, 138, 137
    Winner’s Age: 7, 7, 5, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6, 9, 7 6
    Note: This race is now a 0-145 novice handicap

    Five horses from the 85 original entries have a rating of 145, Highway One O One, Red Indian, Secret Investor, Cubomania and Campeador and are set to carry top weight of 11-12.
    Last year the winning rating was 137 despite the race being opened to accommodate higher rated novice chasers. It might be best to look at those rated between 137-140 to try to find the eventual winner of this tricky to solve novices’ handicap chase.

    Looking through the work of the British weight demons in charge of handicapping the Irish chasers, they really have gone to town putting up the majority of Irish ratings to bring them in line with the British way of handicapping. One way of looking at the situation is that some Irish horses on lower marks at home have actually been given a free pass to make sure of them being able to race at the Cheltenham Festival.
    Some examples of this are included as those to consider.

    ROARING BULL (r140) (Gordon Elliott) was rated 127 in Ireland but after he won he went up 12lb to 139 and runs off 140 here. He is a ‘Giggy’ owned horse that stayed on really well to win a 10k handicap at Naas in February.

    J. P. McManus has three horses entered that run off ratings between 138-140. Movewiththe times is off 140 but has not shown the best aptitude for jumping having UR & Fallen on his two outings. SHADY OPERATOR (r137) (Joseph O’Brien) is 3lb higher here than in Ireland and has some decent form over three miles with the highly respected Ballyward trained by Willie Mullins. If he makes the final 20 he should not mind the drop back in trip.
    RIDERS ONTHE STORM (r140) (Tom J Taffe) is an interesting Irish contender, who has some high profile owners including Mrs John Magnier. You would expect him to be further down the betting list but he was available at 8/1 at the beginning of March having won a novice chase over two miles on good to yielding ground at Punchestown in February. However it was his previous run at Limerick in a Grade 1 novice chase that might be the key to him as he finished third behind Hardline.
    Contenders to Consider: RIDERS ON THE STORM, ROARING BULL,
    SHADY OPERATOR


    5.30 National Hunt Chase(Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)(Grade 2)
    3m 7f 147y £125,000
    Fate of the Favourite: P 8 2 1/4 5 3 F 5 4 5 1 1 1 9 0 4 U

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 3 6 8 1 0 0 0 4 5 7 1 1 1 4 3 4 2
    Winner’s SPs: 8/1, 10/1, 5/1JF, 40/1, 33/1, 33/1,
    9/1, 11/1, 14/1, 5/1F, 5/1F, 9/4F, 8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 16/1 9/2
    Official Rating 2018 First 6 home: 150, 146, 145, 152, 135, 145 (only 6 finished)
    Official Rating 2017 First 7 home: 152, 145,146,143,148,135,148
    Official Rating 2016 First 7 home: 143, 149,147,147,153,146,147
    Winner’s Age: 7, 7, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 7, 6, 7, 6

    This race was first staged at the Cheltenham Festival in 1911 when the meeting was a two day fixture. There was a period when some massive priced winners caused big upsets and made it difficult for punters to solve this amateur riders’ race. Alterations to the entry conditions alongside the race gaining Grade 2 status has raised the quality of those horses taking part resulting in eight of the past 10 renewals being won by horses at punter friendly odds, although the outright favourites continue to elude the punters and only one has actually made the frame in the past four years. At one stage this was the fourth hardest race for punters to solve. Looking back at previous results a certain horse called Tiger Roll won this race at odds of 16/1 in 2017. Sometimes you forget the significant winners at the Festival.

    The two ante-post horses I’m looking to support in this race are BALLYWARD (Willie Mullins and OK CORRAL (r153) (Nicky Henderson). However, the second named is a tricky one as I’mworried four miles will test his stamina to the limits. There are also murmurings about him running in the RSA.
    On the other hand, Ballyward should have no trouble getting the trip. He was an impressive winner of a Grade 3 novice chase at Naas in January, where he jumped and travelled into the race and although his nearest rival was chasing him down he fell at the final fence, the Mullins runner went further clear in the closing stages and looks very useful over fences. He is set to be ridden by Patrick Mullins who was successful on Back In Focus also trained by his father Willie in 2013. This was the last favourite to win (9/4). I think it is important to look for a runner who put up a good performance on its previous outing. Some past winners that fill the criteria had not run during the same calendar year.
    This is a race that will be best sorted out once jockey arrangements and the final set of declared runners are known at the new 48 hour declaration point.

    Contenders to Consider: BALLYWARD, OK CORRAL


    DAY 2 Ladies Day
    Wednesday, March 13, 2019 (Old Course & Cross Country)
    BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE 2M 5F 26yds Grade 1
    Fate of the Favourite: 1 2 2 0/0 2 5 0 1 3 3 1 3 1 3 2 2 1

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 1 5 3 5 4 4 8 4 1 4 4 1 2 1 3 2 4 1

    Winner’s SPs: 5/4F, 6/1, 12/1, 17/2, 17/2, 20/1, 7/1, 5/2F, 7/1, 7/1,
    2/1F, 7/2, 6/4F, 9/2, 3/1, 14/1, 8/11F
    Winner’s Age: 6, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6

    This is probably the most punter friendly event run at the Festival but there have been a few big priced winners popping up to spoil the punters’ party from time to time. The last big priced winner was in 2017 when the late Willoughby Court (14/1) outpointed Neon Wolf to land the race. In 2007 Massini’s Maguire landed the race for Philip Hobbs (20/1).Then there was Galileo trained by Tom George who won at odds of 12/1 in 2002, not the one that is a monster in the breeding world I might add. Finally I will mention the success of Gaelstrom trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies to win in 1993 at odds of 16/1.
    Last year the race went to Smacro (8/11) trained by Gordon Elliott.

    The current crop of contenders for this race might not look to be in the class of some recent winners but you never know a superstar might be lurking in the shadows.
    The seven-year-old CHAMP (r150) (Nicky Henderson) is the ante-post favourite for the race having won on all four of his outings at Perth and Warwick in May and more recently twice at Newbury including a handicap hurdle in December and then he landed his Grade 1 when winning the Challow Hurdle at the end of the month. He is bidding to become the first of his age group to win this race since 1998 when French Holly romped up the hill to win by 14 lengths for Ferdy Murphy. I actually put the horse up before he won a bumper at Uttoxeter in 1996. It was the only time Ferdy gave me a winner during all the treks I made up to Yorkshire to interview him in a pub when he trained in Middleham.

    Do I fancy Champ to win this? Well he has done nothing wrong and comes into the race unbeaten but history is against him.

    BIRCHDALE (r146) (Nicky Henderson) is a well put together five-year-old son of Jeremy, who easily won his only start between the Flags at Tyrella last March and was subsequently purchased by J. P. McManus. On his British hurdle debut at Warwick on good to soft ground in December, he ran out a convincing winner in a maiden hurdle. His next run came on Trials Day at Cheltenham in January where he tracked the leaders and quickened turning for home. His nearest rival BREWIN’UPASTORM (r146) (Olly Murphy) fell at the final flight leaving him to canter up the hill to easily land this Grade 2 Ballymore trial. After the race I could tell the pundits on RacingTV had their loot on the faller, as they waxed lyrical about how unlucky the Murphy horse was not have landed the spoils. I agree the pair were likely to have fought out a good duel had Mrs Barbara Hester’s gelding stood up at the last. Their views were pointless, as we will never know if their arugment would have come to fruition but there is of course the prospect that the pair will be in the shake-up of the Ballymore in March for round two of this saga. At least the British team have two worthy candidates to figure in the eventual outcome of the Grade 1 Ballymore Hurdle. However, I feel the Irish team have the upper hand.

    What about their rivals, particularly the Irish contingent.
    KLASSICAL DREAM (Willie Mullins)(r148) has the Supreme or the Ballymore on his agenda and his chance was discussed earlier in the Supreme section. There is the possibility the longer trip will suit his style of running.
    BATTLEOVERDOYEN (r144) (Gordon Elliott) this six-year-old son of Doyen remains unbeaten in his three outings this season. His first success came in a bumper at Punchestown. On his debut over hurdles he easily won a two mile maiden hurdle at Navan by 13 lengths in December. After this he was stepped up in trip to two and a half miles to tackle a Grade 1 at Naas on good ground in January. He took up the lead three out and although pushed along he quickened at the second last and drew clear of his rivals to win easily. There was a lot to like about the way he performed at this higher level and he looks sure to have a good chance of making the frame in the Ballymore at Cheltenham.

    Contenders to Consider: BATTLEOVERDOYEN, BIRCHDALE, BREWIN’UPASTORM, CHAMP, KLASSICAL DREAM

    RSA CHASE 3M 80yds Grade 1
    Fate of the Favourite: 0 5 5 3 2 P 1 1 1 5 4 4 2/4Jf, 3/4JF, 1 1 1

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 0 4 8 4 0 1 1 1 4 6 2 5 6 1 3 1 1

    Winner’s SPs: 9/2, 33/1, 15/2, 25/1, 5/1, 14/1, 6/5F,
    4/1F, 9/4F, 10/1, 16/1, 9/2, 8/1, 12/1, 13/8F, 8/1, 7/2
    Winner’s Age: 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 6, 7, 8

    There were 31 entries left standing by the middle of February, with SANTINI (r153) (Nicky Henderson) heading the betting lists. Last season he was considered to be just a shell of a horse and I’d agree with that description. However, there is something about him that does not sit right with me at the moment. He began his novice chasing campaign with a workmanlike success in a Grade 2 novices chase at Newbury in November. The pundits waxed lyrical about how well he looked prior to this success and continued to dribble about him before he ran at Kempton on Boxing Day. I think they thought he was a steering job to land the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. The writing was on the wall before the home turn as he laboured around the track and was well stuffed entering the home straight and eventually had no answer to the staying power of the Paul Nicholls trained TOPOFTHEGAME (r155) and probably the best novice chaser seen out this season in La Bague Au Roi (r150) trained by Warren Greatrex, who sidesteps Cheltenham in favour of attempting to continue her unbeaten run at Aintree in April. She is quite frankly as good a superb jumper over fences that I’ve seen in recent times. I respect the chance of the Nicholls runner having the ability and the form to go close in the RSA.
    OK CORRAL (r153) (Nicky Henderson) was discussed in the National Hunt Chase section on Tuesday’s card. The extended three mile trip around Cheltenham might suit him better than the gruelling 4 miles of the event.

    DELTA WORK (r156) (Gordon Elliott) is a seven-year-old son of Network, who gamely prevailed to win the Pertemps Hurdle in a driving finish by a nose at Cheltenham last March. This season he is unbeaten having won three times in Ireland. Firstly in a Beginners’ chase at Down Royal and then he won two Grade 1 Chases, including the Drinmore Chase over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse. On this occasion he had to recover from a mistake at the last that caused his rider Davy Russell to lose an iron and momentarily hand the advantage on the run-in to his rival LE RICHEBOURG. The partnership soon regained their composure and he battled on to land the spoils by half a length. That success was solid form. On his next outing his connections stepped him up in trip to three miles to contest the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase run on good ground at Leopardstown in December. During this race his jumping was a bit sketchy at times, as he made an error at the first fence. He was then hampered at the fifth and lost his position, dropping to the rear until making headway at the eighth into third place only to make another mistake at the tenth. He still managed to take up the lead three out and was pushed along and edged right at the last. He then proceeded to stay on well to land the odds by 8 lengths at the finish. I think he has a bit about him but in a good way. Looking back at his win at last year’s Festival he made a couple of little errors but they did not stop him getting up to win that hot handicap hurdle over three miles. I don’t think we have seen the best of Delta Work at this stage of his career and if he irons out those little mishaps he could develop into a very decent three mile chaser with a never say die attitude.

    Contenders to Consider: DELTA WORK, OK CORRAL, SANTINI, TOPOFTHEGAME,


    CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 5F 26yds Grade 3 Max 26
    Fate of the Favourite: 5 0 1 3 9 F 0 0 1 0 0 2JF 0 5 3 0 0

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 0 0 1 3 0 4 4 2 5 1 6 7 5 0 4 2 6 5 5/0 JF

    Winner’s SPs: 33/1, 25/1, 4/1, 13/2, 33/1, 11/1, 10/1, 7/1, 14/1,
    14/1, 16/1, 33/1, 14/1, 9/1, 12/1, 16, 20

    Winner’s Official Rating: 138, 137, 130, 147, 131, 144, 128,
    130, 140, 141, 142, 135, 148, 153, 139, 149, 148, 143
    Winner’s Age: 9, 7, 6, 5, 5, 8, 8, 6, 6, 5, 8, 7, 7

    The list of entries in this race after the weights were made is 127.
    If you are looking to back each way, do look at the enhanced place terms being offered by the bookmakers, who are looking to give places beyond the first four finishers in the majority of Handicaps run at the Festival.

    Should this year’s ante-post Favourite URADEL (r137) (Willie Mullins) win the race, then he will be running off the lowest rating in the past six years. This eight-year-old son of Kallisto won a 0-100 handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival in July. He was then brought down early on in a valuable Grade B Handicap at the same venue in August. His luck returned to a certain degree when he finished second in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October, where he was involved in a protracted duel in the final two furlongs and finished second beaten a neck by stable companion Low Sun. On his next outing on the Flat at Naas he was only eleventh in a valuable handicap in November.
    Following a two month break he resumed his season with an eye-catching performance over hurdles at Leopardstown in the valuable Grade B Handicap Hurdle in February, where he made good progress in the final two furlongs to eventually finish fifth.
    He is owned by a long standing patron of the Mullins yard, ‘Lucky Luke McMahon’, who has enjoyed lucrative success with his horses, including this race last year.
    Obviously this horse has been laid out for the Coral Cup but he is number 80 in the list of runners and might not even get into the final 26 runners. Perhaps his entry in The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle might give him a better option of having a run at this year’s Festival. I’m going to look at other options that will surely be better value.
    BREWIN’UPASTORM (r146) (Olly Murphy) He ran in the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day in January and was possibly an unlucky faller at the final flight when battling out the finish with Birchdale. Off his rating he falls into the category of those that have won the race in previous years but he might be better off running in the Ballymore
    BLEU BERRY (r148) (Willie Mullins) owned by ‘Lucky Luke McMahon’ won the Coral Cup in 2018 at odds of 20/1 after finishing 17th in the same race that Uradel contested at Lepardstown this year.

    BRIO CONTI (r146) (Paul Nicholls) Does not usually win by that far last time out and then just got up at Ascot to win a Class 2 Handicap by a head at odds of 25/1. Whether he can repeat this success at Cheltenham is open to question, as his last three runs have been right-handed. He did win going left handed at Doncaster in January 2017. Another to perhaps consider as an ew bet.

    ERICK LE ROUGE (r137) (Mrs Jane Williams) is a progressive young handicapper, who started this season on a rating of 112 and following five successive wins has risen to a mark of 137. It’s been 16 years since a horse on that particular rating has won the Coral Cup but he is definitely thriving at present and could at least make the frame with those enhanced places being offered.

    DANCING ON MY OWN (r145) (Henry de Bromhead) has some very consistent form in decent class novice hurdles and looks to be crying out for a step up in trip having run three times over two miles during the autumn and winter months. There will be a lot more to come from this five-year-old son of Milan.

    Contenders to Consider: BLEU BERRY BREWIN’UPASTORM, BRIO CONTI
    DANCING ON MY OWN ERICK LE ROUGE,
    URADEL (also entered in the Martin Pipe Friday)

    BETWAY QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 1M 7F 199yds Grade 1
    Fate of the Favourite: 3 1 1 U 1 F F 2 1 4 8 2 1 1 1 P 2 7 1

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 1 2 1 6 3 2 1 4 5 2 1 1 3 2 4 1

    Winner’s SPs: 7/2, 7/4F, 7/4F, 15/8, 6/4, 16/1, 5/1,
    3/1, 4/11F, 10/1, 10/1, 4/1, 1/4F, 11/4F, 9/2, 5/1, 11/1, evsF
    Winner’s Age: 6, 5, 6, 9, 9, 9, 7, 8, 7, 10, 10 8

    Surely ALTIOR (r175) (Nicky Henderson) has every chance of winning this prestigious race for the second consecutive season if he has a safe passage around the two mile course. Success here will take him to 18 straight wins over fences. He has already done so much, as one of the finest jumpers to ever tread the turf and deserves all the plaudits he will receive should he manage to gain another win at Cheltenham. He is a superstar.

    Contenders to Consider: ALTIOR (He‘s Superstar of the jumping scene)



    GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 3M 6F 37yds
    Fate of the Favourite: F 1/6 1 6 2 5 4 P 7 3 0 1 4 3

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 1 2 2 8 3 3 7 2 7 1 2 4

    Winner’s SPs: 4/1, 7/2JF, 5/2, 4/1, 7/2, 25/1, 13/2, 11/2
    14/1, 4/1, 16/1, 15/8F, 4/1, 7/1

    Winner’s Official Rating: 143, 126, 126, 129, 150, 135, 140, 139, 136, 150, 134, 148, 142, 150
    Winner’s Age: 10, 9, 10, 12, 9, 8, 8, 10, 10, 8, 9, 8

    Irish trainers boast a formidable record, having taken 12 of the 14 renewals. Philip Hobbs, trainer of the 2012 and 2014 scorer Balthazar King, is the only British trainer to have been successful. The biggest priced winner A New Story provided a shock in 2010, scoring at odds of 33/1. Heads On The Ground is the shortest-priced winner, having obliged at 5/2 in 2007. The other market leader since 2007 was Josies Orders in 2016.

    Last year TIGER ROLL (r159)(Gordon Elliott) won the race at odds of 7/1 and of course went on to the land the Grand national at Aintree. He is the ante-post favourite at 5/4 and should again run another big race.

    Other contenders to keep in mind to chase him home include French raider URGENT DE GREGAINE (r142) (Emmanuel Clayeux), who finished second behind Tiger Roll last year.
    AUVERGNAT (r143)( Enda Bolger) won the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase (110k race) at Leopardstown in December and has been aimed at this race since that success.

    Contenders to Consider: TIGER ROLL, AUVERGNAT, URGENT DE GREGAINE

    FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 87yds Grade 3 Max 22
    Fate of the Favourite: 0 0 1/2 4 1 4 3 0 0 0 7 0 2 3

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 9 0 1 4 4 1 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

    Winner’s SPs: 20/1, 40/1, 9/2JF, 14/1, 11/1, 4/1F, 8/1, 40/1, 25/1, 33/1, 25/1, 13/2, 33/1, 33/1

    Winner’s Official rating: 124, 124, 130, 133, 125, 127, 115, 127, 127, 130, 131, 133, 134, 129

    Winner’s Age: This is a race for four-year-olds only

    I’m not even halfway through trying to sort out any sort of strategy to unravel the 10 Festival handicaps and as usual my head is hurting! Next up is an easy race to solve, as it will definitely be won by a four-year-old!

    This race is now known at the Grade 3 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle after the demotion of the name of legendary jumps trainer Fred Winter to the brackets section of the title. I really think that the old guard of past leading Jumps trainers should never be forgotten if their names are given legendary status for past achievements. Let’s not forget such names are fond memories of their generation and we should never let them fade into obscurity.

    You only have to look at the SPs of 6/7 previous winners to realise how difficult it is to solve this competitive juvenile handicap hurdle. Some punters might even consider reaching for their Festival pin and hover it over the depths of the weights or the betting list. The class of 2019 looks no different to recent years.

    The key attributes for success here are that you will need to identify a juvenile with proven ability to stay and possibly had a top three finish in one of its two previous outings, preferably having won on at least one of those runs.

    This season I consider the Irish juveniles to have the strongest form in the book.
    SURIN (r136) (Gordon Elliott) has some strong form from his four runs in Ireland that include winning at Market Rasen in December when formally trained by Mario Hofer. He was then purchased by the ‘Giggy’ set-up to run in the maroon and white star colours plus various shades of jockeys caps. On his two outings in Ireland he has battled out the finish of two decent juvenile races with GARDENS OF BABYLON (r145) (Joseph O’Brien). The gold medal went to the O’Brien horse when they met at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. On this occasion there was half a length between them at the finishing line. Then Surin took the honours at Fairyhouse in January when holding on in a driving finish to win by a nose, in receipt of 12 pounds. He then stepped up to Grade 1 class at Leopardstown, where he ran a solid race to finish third behind Sir Erec. If he turns up here, I’d expect him to have every chance of finishing in the frame.
    Another ‘Giggy’ horse to keep in mind is STAR MAX (r131) (Joseph O’Brien). Yes, the Giggy mob have infiltrated the bastions of the O’Brien clan with this former Flat winner in Germany. He finished third at Naas in January and then won a twenty runner maiden juvenile hurdle at Gowran Park in February. This one is darker than a moonless night.
    COKO BEACH (r137) (Gordon Elliott) was formerly trained in France and won readily on his debut over hurdles at Nantes. Since joining the Giggy outfit he has run twice in Ireland and on his debut for his new stable finished ninth having been hampered at the last in a Grade 2 event at Leopardstown in December. He then finished a creditable third at Naas in February without being knocked about under hands and heels riding from Jack Kennedy. This horse was a 33/1 chance in the ante-post market at the beginning of March.

    FRIEND OR FOE (r128) (Paul Nicholls) was formerly trained in France and made an eye-catching impression when making all on good to soft ground at Taunton at the end of December. He is at the wrong end of the betting market being one of the favourite to give the Ditcheat maestro his third win in the past five renewals of the Fred Winter.

    Contenders to Consider:
    COKO BEACH, FRIEND OR FOE, GARDENS OF BABYLON, STAR MAX, SURIN


    WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
    2M 87yds Grade 1
    Fate of the Favourite: 2 2 1 0 1 0 8 3 3 0 6 2 3/7 2 1 7 0 4

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 6 6 1 2 1 0 2 5 2 0 6 7 0 0 1 2 3 0

    Winner’s SPs: 14/1, 14/1, 2/1F, 7/1, 7/2F, 33/1, 11/2, 12/1, 9/2 40/1,
    14/1, 16/1, 25/1, 16/1, 9/2F, 5/1, 7/1, 25/1
    Winner’s Age: 5, 5, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 5

    Only 28 original entries were made for the Grade 1 Festival Bumper at the end of February.

    ENVOI ALLEN (Gordon Elliott) cost his new connections Cheveley Park Stud 400K to secure following his only win between the Flags at Ballinaboola, when trained by Colin Bowe. He has won on all three bumper outings at Fairyhouse, Navan and Leopardstown. During his win at Leopardstown in February, he had to be firmly ridden in the closing stages to see off METICULOUS (Joseph O’Brien) and owned by Michael Tabor. This son of Fame And Glory looks to have been brought along slowly and will have come on for the experience of Trials day in Ireland.
    ASK FOR GLORY (Paul Nicholls) this five-year-old son of Fame And Glory made one appearance between the Flags at Bartlemy on soft ground in May and jumped and travelled to eventually win by 10 lengths. He made his British debut in a bumper at Chepstow in December where he made all to win impressively by 13 lengths on soft ground but it will be hard to know if he will be suited by fast ground if it happens to come up as decent good conditions.
    GET IN THE QUEUE (Harry Fry) Although a bit green during the early stages of his racecourse debut at Uttoxeter in December, the penny soon dropped and he stayed on strongly up the home straight to win by 9 lengths. On his next outing at Exeter in February it was a case of fill in the blanks after the three furlong pole, as the other part of the race was run in thick fog! At the time when the field came into view he was just about to take up the lead and then he and his mates disappeared back into the pea soup. After a few minutes and a lot of pontificating by the racecourse commentator, who rabbited on about everything except for what he had for breakfast and how much he was enjoying the Brexit saga, Get In The Queue was the first to come into view but there was no sign of his mates. He was at least 20 lengths clear of his rivals and I thought he must have joined the race at the third furlong pole! There was no doubting he looked a very special horse, who must have a great chance of landing the Festival bumper for the home side since 2011.
    Contenders to Consider: ASK FOR GLORY, ENVOI ALLEN, GET IN THE QUEUE,
    METICULOUS


    DAY 3 St Patrick's Thursday, March 14, 2019 (New Course)
    JLT NOVICES’ CHASE 2M 3F 198yds GRADE 2 (NEW COURSE)
    Fate of the Favourite: 2 8 2 4 1 1 1 2

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 2 7 4 1 1 1 2

    Winner’s SPs: 4/1, 3/1, 20/1, 7/1, 6/4, 4/1cf3, 6/4, 4/1

    Official Ratings of winners: 147, 148, 147, 147, 154, 152, 155, 144
    Winner’s Age: 7, 6, 7, 7, 6, 7, 7

    Willie Mullins has sent out three previous winners of the JLT Novices’ Chase, Vautour, Black Hercules and Yorkhill. Seven of the eight renewals have gone to horses that ran over hurdles at a previous Festival and 5/7 were Graded winners over hurdles and seven of the eight winners were trained in Ireland, with Gordon Elliott landing the race for the first time last season with Shattered Love off an official rating of 144.


    DROVERS LANE (r150) (Rebecca Curtis) Although he might not be on many punters minds to figure in the climax of this race, it is worth remembering he is actually on the same rating as some of those at the front of the ante-post market at the end of February(20/1). The handicapper has him on the same official rating as DEFI DU SEUIL. The Curtis trained horse has won his latest two chases, including a fine display to win a 15k Class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham in December when beating Le Breuil.

    KILDISART(r147)(Ben Pauling) is another Cheltenham winner, landing a competitive extended two and a half mile handicap chase on Trials Day at the end of January. His previous success came at Ascot in December and he proved he acted going left-handed at Prestbury Park despite hitting the second last and going slightly left as he made the climb to the winning post. (ante-post 16/1).
    If you are looking for some big priced runners, as possible value ew selections the likes of these horses will be worth considering.

    With the Irish entries having enjoyed so much success in this relatively new Festival event, you have to look closely at their possible leading players here.
    CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC (r150) (Gordon Elliott) Last year at the Festival, he won the Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle. This eight-year-old son of Stowaway has run twice over fences this season, finishing third at Naas in a Grade 3 novices’ chase and on his latest outing he finished second behind CHRIS’S DREAM (r140) (Henry de Bromhead) at Navan in a Grade 2, who also holds an entry in the JLT.
    It looks to me as if the handicapper has rated the Elliott runner on what he has achieved over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
    HARDLINE (r150) (Gordon Elliott) is a consistent performer over fences in Ireland having won on three of his five outings including a Grade 3 at Navan in December by 10 lengths and also a Grade 1 at Limerick on Boxing Day over an extended two miles and three furlongs on soft ground when beating Getabird by half a length.

    Contenders to Consider: CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC, DROVERS LANE, HARDLINE, KILDISART,


    PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE (handicap hurdle) (Listed) 2m 7f 213y Max 24
    Fate of the Favourite: 4 0 1 7 0 8 0 2/8 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 4 2

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 4 0 1 0 5 0 7 0 9 5 9 6 0 3 5 0 3

    SPs of the winner’s: 8/1, 20/1, 50/1, 10/1, 50/1, 14/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 14/1, 25/1, 9/2, 9/1, 14/1, 11/1, 6/1
    Winner’s Official Rating: 138, 130, 120, 121, 142, 140, 132, 129, 133,
    138, 142, 140, 148, 138, 139, 146, 139
    Winner’s Age: 8, 8, 7, 9, 10, 8, 6, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5

    Only 48 entries stood their ground when the weights were revealed at the end of February. This fiercely competitive handicap has gone to the Irish contenders over the past three years. Pat Kelly famously sent out consecutive winners Mall Din (14/1) and Presenting Percy (9/1) and last year the best two backed runners on the day both trained by Gordon Elliott fought out the finish Glenloe (9/2F) and Delta Work (6/1) eventually getting the verdict by a nose from his stable companion. This was the third straight win in the race for jockey Davy Russell.

    DAWN RAIDER (r129) (Pat Kelly) is a seven-year-old son of Mahler, who finished third in the Qualifer at Cheltenham in October when ridden by Davy Russell. This horse had run consistently when placed second twice and third on two other occasions before that Cheltenham outing. On his latest run at Gowran in February he burst a blood vessel. That is obviously a bit of a worry so close to Cheltenham.

    ‘Giggy’ have four entries this time around, A TOI PHIL (r146), CAP YORK (r144), CUNEO (r137) and MORMON (r133).
    Henry de Bromhead sent out CUNEO to win a qualifier at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting. His other entry MORMON finished second also in a qualifier at Punchestown in February behind CAP YORK trained by Noel Meade.
    A TOI PHIL (Gordon Elliott) finished fourth 12 lengths behind in the Punchestown Qualifier. Perhaps Mormon has the ability to make the frame.

    THERMISTOCLES (r137) (Joesph O’Brien) finished third with a decent effort in the Leopardstown Qualifier behind Cuneo.

    Of the British contenders FLEMCARA (r137) (Emma Lavelle) won the recent Exeter Qualifier in February and looks to be on an upward curve

    Contenders to Consider: A TOI PHIL, CAP YORK, CUNEO, DAWN RAIDER, FLEMCARA, MORMON, THERMISTOCLES

    RYANAIR CHASE
    2M 4F 166yds Grade1
    Fate of the Favourite: P 1/3 4 5 2 2 4 1 2 1 3 1 1 2

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 2 1 3 2 2 8 2 1 2 1 8 1 1 3

    Winner’s SPs: 9/2, 10/3, 9/2, 4/1, 6/1, 14/1, 6/1, 7/2F, 7/2, 3/1F, 16/1, EvsF, 7/4F, 8/1

    Winner’s official rating: 155, 157, 152, 165, 156, 162, 166, 168, 169, 161, 176, 171, 166
    Winner’s Age: 8, 9, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 6, 6, 8, 7, 7

    The Ryanair Chase is usually won by horses with winning form at Cheltenham and Grade 1 winning form at other tracks.

    FRODON (r169) (Paul Nicholls). I never expected this horse to make the progress he has achieved in the past couple of years. He and Bryony Frost have struck up a brilliant partnership when racing around Cheltenham. This season they have won the Grade 3 Handicap Chase run in December and the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase run in January. The entry here will see them have another attempt to win this race following their fifth placed effort in 2018 Cheltenham in March.
    There is the chance that connections will run this Cheltenham specialist in the Gold Cup. My problem with this horse is will he have the stamina to get the trip in a truly run race. However the trip in the RyanAir will surely suit him, as he looks to have improved from last year.

    FOOTPAD (r165) (Willie Mullins) Compared to his novice campaign when he won five races on the bounce including the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival and the Grade 1 Ryanair Novices’ Chase at the Punchestown Festival in April. On his two Irish outings this season, firstly at Naas in November where he sustained an overreach and then in December, where he finished second beaten half a length by Simply Ned in the Grade 1 two mile and one furlong at Leopardstown.

    MIN (r167) (Willie Mullins) has won on both of his outings in Grade 1 races over two and a half miles at Punchestown in December and over two miles and one furlong at Leopardstown in January. Last season he was runner-up behind Altior in the Queen Mother Chase He was the favourite in the ante-post lists at the end of February (5/2). His chance in the Ryanair has to be seriously respected

    ROAD TO RESPECT (r169) (Noel Meade) has an entry in the Ryanair but if the underfoot conditions happen to remain fast he might well take his chance in the Gold Cup on the Friday of the meeting.
    CONEY ISLAND (r157) (Edward P Harty) Owned by J. P. McManus he ran twice in Ireland this season, finishing third over hurdles behind Apple’s Jade at Navan in November. Connections then ran him in December at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Savills Chase where he was not knocked about and finished seventh behind Kemboy. Although he stays three miles he has some decent form over two and a half miles. He will arrive at the Festival a fresh horse and has a good ew chance of making the frame in the Ryanair Chase.

    Contenders to Consider: CONEY ISLAND, FRODON, FOOTPAD, MIN,
    ROAD TO RESPECT

    STAYERS’ HURDLE 2M 7f 213yds Grade 1
    Fate of the Favourite: 6 1 1 2 2 3 F 1 4 1 1 1 P 2 2 1 3 5

    Winner’s Position in the Market: 3 1 1 2 3 4 3 1 3 1 1 1 4 3 7 1 4 4

    Winner’s SPs: 11/2, 13/8F, 9/4F, 9/2, 5/1, 8/1, 5/1,
    11/8F, 6/1, 5/6F, 10/11f, 5/6F, 3/1, 15/2, 14/1, EvsF, 10/1, 12/1
    Winner’s Age: 6, 10, 8, 9, 10, 8, 7, 8, 7, 7, 9, 7

    PAISLEY PARK (r156) (Emma Lavelle) this seven-year-old son of Oscar is probably the most improved British staying hurdler in training, having won on all four of his outings this season. His wins have come at Aintree in a handicap hurdle in October and he followed this success with another fine display to land the valuable Grade 3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at the Betfair meeting in November. I thought that was a gutsy display as he was headed narrowly at the final hurdle but to his credit he stayed on to mow down the equally gallant Scottish raider Shades Of Midnight trained by Sandy Thomson in the final fifty yards.
    Paisley Park was then stepped up to Grade 1 company and duly won the Long Walk Hurdle (now the JLT Hurdle) when staying on well to win by 2 lengths from the 40/1 shot West Approach. The pair met again when they resumed their rivalry in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials day in January. The pair again finished in the same order as they achieved at Ascot but perhaps the Lavelle trained gelding was even more impressive when storming up the hill to win by 12 lengths on this occasion. The bookmakers where obviously impressed as they installed the winner as the favourite (15/8) to land the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival in March. His owner could receive the biggest cheer of the week.
    BLACK OP (r153) (Tom George) finished third, 14 lengths behind Paisley Park and West Approach when resuming his hurdling career following two races over fences in a short lived attempt to make the grade as a top class novice chaser. Last year, he finished second in the Ballymore behind Samcro.
    KILBRICKEN STORM (r152) (Colin Tizzard) won the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ hurdle last March and began his novice chasing career with two runs over fences winning on his chasing debut at Ffos Las but was well beaten by Santini on his next outing. This sparked a rethink and connections have chosen to revert back to hurdles for the remainder of this season. He will have an obvious chance here if he bounces back to the level of form he showed to win at the Festival last year.

    FAUGHEEN (r169) (Willie Mullins). He has run twice in Ireland this season but fell at two out on his second start behind Apple’s Jade in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown in December. That particular fall was the first time such an incident had happened to Faugheen in his 20 racecourse appearances. He might be in the autumn of his career but that performance at Punchestown showed he retains his ability and we know how much he enjoys his racing at the Cheltenham Festival. His chance of running another good race from the front here should not be underestimated.



    SUPASUNDAE (r163) (Jessica Harrington). Last year he finished second behind Penhill in the Stayers’ Hurdle and has since run consistently including winning the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle at Punchestown in April. He has also finished second on four other occasions in Grade 1 company over two to two and a half mile trips. His consistency know no boundaries and should he take his chance here, it will be his first run back up in trip to three miles since last year’s Festival second.

    Contenders to Consider: BLACK OP, FAUGHEEN, KILBRICKEN STORM,
    PAISLEY PARK, PENHILL, SAMCRO, SUPASUNDAE,

  29. #2879
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Samcro’s not going.

    Where’s that from?
    I'm a twit

  30. #2880
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Got sent it from the boss of my department from some geezer he knows. Tweed wearing jacket type.

  31. #2881
    Senior Member Pleb's Avatar
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    Waff with the tl;dr post

  32. #2882
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    He's picked five horses in every race.

  33. #2883
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    It’s just a guide, really. Thought it was a decent read and to pass it on. I can’t wait to win thousands next week. The Sky Bet offer of money back as cash on the first race each day is getting obliterated through multiple accounts.

  34. #2884
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Yeah that offer is pretty irresistible.
    I'm a twit

  35. #2885
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Got £30 in total on Dan McGrue @ 14 at the 3.05 in Sandown. No idea why it’s such good odds and Cobden/Nicholls combination turns me on.

  36. #2886
    Senior Member Pleb's Avatar
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    @Waffdon Think I got the first three days for the 1:30 race of Cheltenham locked in, not sure about day 4 though.

    Day 1 - 1:30 (Single) Elixir De Nutz (7)
    Day 2 - 1:30 (Single) Klassical Dream (8) or BattleoverDovyen (4.5), Brewin'upastorm (10), Birchdale (11)
    Day 3 - 1:30 (Single) Drovers Lane (21), Kildisart (8)

    I'm thinking Birchdale at 11s for Day 2, this is all on SkyBet

  37. #2887
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I love how whoever you ask about a race, most of them have a different take. It’s one of many reasons why racing is so good.

    Depending on declarations and things, my picks for the Sky promo are probably:
    Tuesday Rouge Vif
    Wednesday Brewin’upastorm
    Thursday Vinndication
    Friday Sir Erec

    I’ve purposely not really been looking at odds when choosing my horses. Hope I don’t end up with a list of the 28 favourites.
    I'm a twit

  38. #2888
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Tuesday: Fakir Doudairies/Grand Sancy
    Wednesday: Beakstown
    Thursday: Glen Forsa
    Friday: Sir Erec

    I’ll probs go on them for SkyBets thing.

  39. #2889
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I had Glen Forsa down for the Arkle.
    I'm a twit

  40. #2890
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Some tips for Cheltenham I got from someone ITK:

    Toggle Spoiler

  41. #2891
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Does Kiko mind you leaking that?
    I'm a twit

  42. #2892
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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  43. #2893
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    No fucking danger Third Wind lost that

  44. #2894
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    They’ve taken it from the wrong winning post. Bookies better amend the result

  45. #2895
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Double pay out!
    I'm a twit

  46. #2896
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Are we getting a Cheltenham Challenge going?

  47. #2897
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Are we getting a Cheltenham Challenge going?
    How?
    I'm a twit

  48. #2898
    Man(c) of the People igor_balis's Avatar
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    It seems weird and too good to be true, but my colleague (as mentioned in relationship thread) has a weird betting system that's got him about a grand in profit this season.

    I'm not sure if it's pure luck and he's about to lose all his money, but every weekend he puts the same weird request-a-bet on skybet on a few football games - I'm not sure of the specifics but it's like both teams to have >x corners, both teams to get >x yellow cards, etc etc. He claims there's a method to which games he picks, but I'm unconvinced.

  49. #2899
    Man(c) of the People igor_balis's Avatar
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    Also does anyone fancy doing one of those games where you start with a tenner and put a bet on every weekend and whoever has the most after a predetermined number of weeks wins?

  50. #2900
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by igor_balis View Post
    It seems weird and too good to be true, but my colleague (as mentioned in relationship thread) has a weird betting system that's got him about a grand in profit this season.

    I'm not sure if it's pure luck and he's about to lose all his money, but every weekend he puts the same weird request-a-bet on skybet on a few football games - I'm not sure of the specifics but it's like both teams to have >x corners, both teams to get >x yellow cards, etc etc. He claims there's a method to which games he picks, but I'm unconvinced.
    Whats his Twitter? Or if you don’t wanna share that, start sharing his requestabets.
    I'm a twit

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