Sounds like you.
Sounds like you.
We will piss the over 60s by the end of April (certainly with one jab). Will probably have done most of the over 50s by then. Maybe even some others.Originally Posted by Lewis
For their deaths to get to 100,000 they would need to have a massive case spike similar to our New Variant one.
The bigger concern with them is that, as that graphic suggests, no one on the ground seems arsed. Over here everyone is arsed - there's a hugely high vaccine takeup, the NHS are motivated, the ministers/leaders are motivated, and the country is basically on tenterhooks waiting for it to happen. In France (and other European countries, but especially France) the takeup levels are horrible, the procurement has been a mess and the infrastructure doesn't seem there at all.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 01-02-2021 at 10:27 PM.
They're at four-hundred a day, so two more months of that would bring them close enough. It's ON. Italy could overtake us easily as well (what are they playing at without a super version doing the rounds?).
To tell you the truth I haven't looked at the international death figures for a while, I didn't know Jean-Pierre was as close as 30,000 behind us on deaths. If they really fuck it up then yes, it's plausible they could inch near our total. I would expect our deaths to inch down for the next 2-3 weeks and then divebomb after that.
We have also had superb lockdown compliance this time, I think - either that, or the New Variant is a bit of a soft lad under pressure. Meanwhile the French seem to be in a massive squabble about whether Manu is going to introduce a third 'confinement' at all. It seems he hasn't, yet, they're just stuck to their stupid curfews.
It seemed a bit shite early on, so maybe Joran Mormont calling us murderers has turned it round (slightly hypocritical given how cavalier he was about spreading his scales around).
Your boy on the ground in lawless Essex can confirm that compliance has stepped up big time since the New Year.
You seeing this shit, @Giggles?
Your boy on the ground in lawless Essex would like to point out that he had no part to play in the wishing of death upon our French friends.
*friends, allies and partners.
I gave up on the sad bastards and just avoid it altogether now. I can imagine there’s been an even greater amount of testicle clutching and chest beating though. Vile.
When you've voted in a rabble of incompetents it's important to dial up the smugness as far as possible when the law of averages dictated that they eventually got something right.
I agree with the arguments made in this piece:
https://mike-93476.medium.com/why-i-...cs-e8fb57dae68
There's no question that lockdowns work, people thinking otherwise just haven't looked at the data, or otherwise aren't intelligent enough to warrant a hearing.
My only concern would be what will governments do in the future in other situations now that the lockdown has been added to their arsenal. And also that the 'zero covid' zealots want to lock us down for six or nine or twelve months, which is clearly not necessary.
Excuse me? I want to know stats like that are figured out.The mean age of death is 80, and it causes on average a reduction in life expectancy of 10–15 years.
Lockdown is effective but also punishing. The (blindingly obvious) key is doing it quickly and harshly so it can be over in days or weeks rather than a whole fucking year save for short interludes.
We've obviously had no choice but to do that, but I do wonder where we would be now had we taken the Australian route straight off the bat. Alot less miserable with alot less death and an economy alot less fucked, I imagine.
Last edited by Spikey M; 02-02-2021 at 09:21 AM.
A scenario where we shut the borders in, say, mid March 2020 would be interesting (don't think there is any world in which they close earlier than that).
I think the first peak would be largely the same, maybe very slightly less deadly, as the thing was clearly already in strong circulation here well prior to that. The huge mistake we made was letting people go on foreign holidays and bring back other strains. I'm 100% convinced based on the data I've seen that this was a big cause of the initial 'second wave' and the more infections you have, the more chances of a New Variant to cripple us as it did in December. Foreign holidays definitely shouldn't be allowed this year, but I see Boris was blundering on about maybe allowing them yesterday.
So I think we would still have had a bit of a second wave (inevitably) but it wouldn't have been anywhere near as bad, and deaths would overall be about half what they are.
There hasn't been a single European or American country that took the approach used in SE Asia and Australia/NZ, which is probably for a reason.
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 02-02-2021 at 10:15 AM.
Yeah, there's no way we would have locked down until it was too late the first time round. Memories of Swine Flu, Bird Flu and Sars gave us all a false sense of security. It will be interesting to see what we do the next time one of these things rocks up though.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ainst-variants
Drug treatment failure has been achieved. Bring on vaccine failure baby.
The summer holidays look like the big unforced balls up, but even then you see how reluctant we are to close borders now and you could probably put that down to Whitehall dogshit ice cream idiocy.
Really poor form to put such a bold statement in like that and not even reference it.
Given the current excess death stats you would think the population life expectancy would be affected by maybe 0.5-1 years - 10-15 years would be the Black Death.
Maybe it means for a person of 60 who contracts the virus, or something.
I can't remember what it is exactly, but basically if you get to eighty you actually stand a reasonable chance of getting to eighty-five/ninety, rather than simply measuring it against the average life expectancy. That said, if half the deaths have been in care homes, why is age rather than physical/mental condition the primary measure of anything?
They've been saying there's 40 year old Long Covid sufferers that now have hearts and lungs comparable to 60 year olds, so that could well be what they mean.
It really shouldn't be, should it? Effectively in almost all cases it fucks with unwell/unhealthy people.
I guess because that would be a lot harder to objectively quantify compared to mortality.
Please collect any and all of your family members currently residing in care facilities by 18 March 2020, otherwise we will assume that you do not really care all that much and let them die (in the event of which the state shall also receive any inheritance you would otherwise have been due).
Speaking of which, why is 'Captain Tom' allowed his family in the hospital? What happened to all of those dying alone sob stories?
I hope he sticks it out until the summer, I can't be doing with another round of clapping just now. Also he's not French so it wouldn't help the count.
Oh well.
If they make some sort of state occasion out of this I'm looking at emigrating.
The geezer popped up on the London fireworks, he ain't being laid to rest discretely. Hold a minute's silence in the prem games for peak lols.
What's the least mawkish country in the world that isn't also a third world one? Taiwan?
Millionaire in superior treatment shocker.
Finland innit.
Is it Finland that are governed largely by a group of thirty-something women? Or am I mixing them up with somebody else?
Media seems a little restrained about blaming COVID for his death. And yet he will be a +1 on their counter which they've throatfucked us with for the past 12 months. How ironic.
I'm really glad I missed this happening.He became the oldest person to have UK number one when he performed You'll Never Walk Alone with Michael Ball.
Yeah, I can do without being 'nudged' to death by the minge mafia. Molton's settee it is.
Semi-permanent darkness aside, Finland's a cracking place that really has its shit sorted.
The wins keep coming (RIP Captain Sir Tom).
Christ, that is one hell of an e-victory for the MHRA.
Single Dose Twitter going for an early bath with the French and James O'Brien.
https://mike-93476.medium.com/why-i-...cs-e8fb57dae68
Y'know, the link in Kiko's post a couple of posts above mine.
No, I meant it was poor form for him to say life expectancy was reduced by 10-15 years and not provide a reference.
Ah, fair. I do wonder where that sprang from. Even the long covid stuff is too early to draw conclusions from. Commiserations to Taz all the same.
10-15 years seems about right, one day I'll detail the full list of issues I've battled as a result of it. Harrowing stuff.
Some more good news.
I told my mother I'm not getting my fingers burnt mourning another pensioner who raised loads of money for hospitals, and she goes 'You'll lose your job if people hear you saying that'. She's probably right as well.
I'd love to have stole that but I've already reacted. Now hoping for the claps to be a thing so I can use it.
Just reading some stuff from the Zero Covid people (this in the Lancet and refers to Germany but is being pushed for UK by some).
You can see why socialists are all over this stuff. You can do it from a low start but not from where Europe now is. 'Phase 1', by my reckoning, under the current UK lockdown arrangement, would take minimum six months in many regions. Maybe longer. Then you'd spend the rest of your lives dicking about with Phases 2, 3 and 4.As many countries continue to struggle with a third wave of COVID-19—Hong Kong is suffering its fourth wave and is contemplating a fifth and sixth—all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic. This past week, Ilona Kickbusch, founding director of the Global Health Centre at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, shared a proposal being widely discussed in Germany. The approach devised by a group of clinicians and academics, which in addition to Kickbusch includes Melanie Brinkmann, Michael Hallek, Matthias Schneider, and others, is a “No-COVID strategy”.
There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones. First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero. Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test, trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions. Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically. Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society. Every infection is one too many. The German proposal recommends a regional focus—when the incidence of infection in an area falls to zero, the region should be declared a green zone. Strict protective contact and travel restrictions should be imposed around this zone, with robust test, trace, and isolate protocols. Individual motivation and social consensus to support this plan—a collective objective for the entire population—would be assisted through daily communication with the public. Messaging would now focus less on positive test results, hospitalisations, and deaths. Instead, public support would be built around the broader goals of societal wellbeing, returning to work, and the restoration of civil liberties. To maintain public commitment, cohesion, and morale, authorities need to offer a clear reopening plan based on progress to No-COVID. The eventual aim would be to expand and fuse green zones across Germany. This strategy could also be implemented across Europe if governments could agree to a common No-COVID goal. The German team argue that the first realistic assessment of their plan came with the way Melbourne successfully handled its recent outbreak. The “path to normality” would consist of four phases. Phase 1: lockdown to achieve an incidence of infection below ten cases per 100 000 population per week. Phase 2: continued measures to reach below five cases per 100 000. Phase 3: reaching zero incidence. Phase 4: declaration of green zone status.
And what sort of fluffy shit are they imagining with this bit: 'Individual motivation and social consensus to support this plan—a collective objective for the entire population—would be assisted through daily communication with the public. Messaging would now focus less on positive test results, hospitalisations, and deaths. Instead, public support would be built around the broader goals of societal wellbeing, returning to work, and the restoration of civil liberties.'
Have these people ever left a classroom?
Last edited by Jimmy Floyd; 02-02-2021 at 10:41 PM.
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