Originally Posted by Mike
Winner.
Winner.
I'm a twit
Unless you are incredibly lucky on the detection [we got away with it once], or the person who has it is a hermit, then 5 days ain't going to be enough to have it under control (assuming society is functioning in a normal way that is).
We're up to 231 now. Although I think this is with the added issue of THE VARIANT.
Get well soon Mike.
Are these places going to carry on doing short lockdowns for the rest of time? Or just until the population is vaccinated?
The bigger question is are these places going to continue to pursue a zero covid policy even when the at risk have been vaccinated. I think the unfortunate answer to that is probably yes.
This whole business has broken a fairly large part of society so fuck knows how anything ever goes back to how it was.
The idea of the short lockdowns is that it gives the contact tracers time to figure out who needs to be tested immediately - not to wait it out. It essentially freezes everything in place while they assess the damage. It only works if the contact tracing is good though, because it depends on identifying everyone who needs to quarantine within that window. Fortunately, when you have zero other cases, you can basically identify all of potential close contacts through tracing and media campaign.
There's the potential to extend it for longer if the virus actually gets out.
After a successful vaccine, zero covid makes no sense whatsoever. If you're going to do that you also need to do zero flu, zero everything else.
I would guess it's at least until the vaccination program has been fully implemented. But honestly, I could live with occasional short lockdowns for an extended duration if that's what it came to (it won't). We've basically proven we can work that way.
EDIT: I do agree with you though. Successful vaccines (and getting numbers at least under control) really have to be the end of it. Anything we can't vaccinate our way out of, we need to learn to live with eventually.
We have this exact thing here on a tiny island, with essentially closed borders. 9 days ago there were no cases, mega contact tracing, expanded testing capacity, the works. Then 4 unexplained cases suddenly appeared out of nowhere, lockdown was immediate, and now we have 231 and counting. Lockdown can't save you from the spread before those first cases are detected, which is why I say you need to be lucky and pick them up very early and hope to god they aren't mild/asymptotic as otherwise it's out. The added virulence of the new uk variant may compound this.
It would be great if we manage to keep the cold and flu down after this due to how we appreciate personal hygiene and importance of staying the fuck home if you're ill.
Fuck (forcibly, aggressively and without lube) that.
Yeah, I don't mind if the hand sanitiser industry keeps going from strength to strength. Solitary confinement however can do one.
If it is identified as getting out, the lockdown gets real. Nobody is saying that can't happen. But it gives everyone time to assess the situation before the panic starts. Queensland locked down for four days, everyone who had been in a train, bus, or shop with the case was identified, they quarantined and were eventually cleared. It helps that this information is fairly carefully recorded, at least.
But we have a very different setup on the ground to the UK. We know exactly where it came from (cleaner in hotel quarantine) and anyone in that job is tested daily. I'm not saying it can't spiral, but it means we have a much better idea of how it spirals. We had 90 or so cases from the northern beaches cluster in Sydney, and managed to pull that back under control, although that lockdown lasted about a month. Basically, the length of the lockdown changes with the risk.
If I have to work from home for a week or two a couple of times in 2021, I reckon I'll manage to pull through ok.
But where does that end? Presumably, Covid is now here forever. In 2030 are we still locking down for 5 days every time there's a positive? As Jimmy said, we don't do that for anything else. We vaccinate the vulnerable and crack on. Fuck going full Madagascar for eternity.
As I said to Jimmy, I agree. We do everything in our power to keep it out, vaccinate (as well as require everyone entering the country to be vaccinated), then anything after that we have to learn to live with. When I said occasional short lockdowns, I meant until the vaccination process is considered complete.
I'd add that when we do reopen the borders (in stages, I'd expect), anyone coming from areas with vastly higher rates of infection should probably still have to hotel quarantine until the numbers equalise. But seeing out the full vaccination rollout without any resurgence should be Australia's goal.
You're in a different situation to us, so I don't know and can't possibly weigh in on what the UK should be trying to do, to be honest.
I'm saying this sat here having not seen anyone other than my parents and 5 workmates since October, so yeah.
I seem to remember the expectation being that CoronaViruses typically grant immunity for 2 years. I've no idea if it's the same for the vaccine, but covering everyone in 2 years would be a huge task.
I really should clarify that I'm only talking about Australia's path forwards. We're in totally different situations, and I have no idea what is viable or sensible in the UK at this stage. It sucks and I'm sorry.
This is my fault for not being clear. Apologies.
Yeah, I wasn't being a moany twat, just highlighting the difference.
We should all be in the same boat soon in any case, but the difference might be that in Aus/NZ etc people might be able to tolerate little lockdowns, but here there is exhaustion.
Stop the Boats.
Who’s got the corona app tracing thing then?
Because I don’t.
What Symptoms you got Mike? Hope it’s mild.
It's rare that Tony Abbot and I have ever agreed on anything.
I'm reading up on smallpox at the minute to see how long it took for that to be wiped out. The Chinese were snorting up scabs as a way to inoculate as far back as the 10th century. The mad lads. It does seem to highlight just how difficult it is to organise a mass vaccination on a global scale. The efforts to wipe smallpox out on that scale didn't really get going until the 50s.
Any other insightful comparisons Shinners.
Divorcee's are aften unnecessarily hostile. Which begs the question; are they divorced because they're cunts, or are they cunts because they're divorced.
Please report back Shinners.
Hostility? From Magic? I won't hear of it. 9/10 of ten kebab shop windows agree.
Hardly hostility you wet weekends.
Pretty sure we know which category Magic falls under.
What one is that then.
Also seeing more people wearing masks outside walking.
Reading twitter today it's still astonishing to me how many people are absolutely desperate for the first jabs to be ineffective without the second (even though there's lots of evidence that the first jabs are extremely effective). It seems they need to country to fail and this must be all they have left to cling onto.
We vaccinated 1.2% of the population yesterday alone.
Got the phone call earlier this afternoon. Wifes nan died. Her 70 year old uncle is also still in a bad way.
We are nailing this. However, I think it's more like 0.9% (600,000 / 66,000,000) - or are you excluding a particular age group?
Sorry to hear that dude.
What sort of stuff are you reading?
Sorry, I misread the original, it was 1.2% of adults.
Just tweets by prominent journalists/agencies and the replies under them. I know that twitter replies are not reflective of the population's opinions (far from it), but they probably are reflective of politically active people's opinions.
The same people currently tweeting 'We never said the EU was perfect, but...'
Most sensible remainers have a good stance on that, but the professional remainers like Anna Soubry still stick out like a sorre thumb.
You don't know who the sensible remainers are because they got over it the day after.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...herts-55881508
Walk your way out of this.
He appears to have missed his vaccination because he got ill on that freebie holiday.
Assuming he isn't on the night shifts down his local Co-op so how these cunts are continuing to catch it is some feat. Are we sure the COVID label isn't including the natural process of death?
If he's been ill he would have caught it from the hospital/health visitors. Talk about a slap in the face.
This bloke is setting himself up to be booed off the court.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...&sf242425458=1Tennys Sandgren mocks Tennis Australia from Australian Open quarantine over extra day in lockdown
MY NAME'S TENNIS AUSTRALIA AND I'M SOOOO COOL.
He sounds like an absolute fucking loon.
Let's say we get all the over-sixties vaccinated by [the end of] April, and the Europeans are a good couple of months behind, could they conceivably overtake our death total even without a wacky New Variant of their own?
My mums 80 year old friend said he’s not being vaccinated ‘because I’ve been doing reading online’
Cull him.
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