It could rise quite dramatically and not necessarily be an issue. In Germany it went from 0.7 to 1.3 because of a single cluster of migrant workers living together in dorms. They’ve been isolated and a couple of days later it’s 0.8 again. The smaller the number of cases the more susceptible the R will be to volatility.Originally Posted by ScousePig
Yorkshire and the North East is an interesting case of this, actually. There is a higher rate of infection in areas of Middlesbrough and Sunderland which means the regional number is somewhere around 0.8 (from memory). But there is basically fuck all of it about elsewhere in the region.
I got fuck all in any wills.
I'd heard about the care homes without testing thing. Truly horrific.
As for the numbers that make up the R, I agree the journalists are irresponsible, but just fucking provide them when the overall number is released and there's less of an issue. If only the government and the scientific advisors had a daily platform, where they could talk to the nation, at say 5 o' clock and clear all of this up...
This bit is absolutely key. We need the numbers behind the calc.
On face value it seems unlikely that care homes could push the R up significantly, but if there are minimal cases everywhere else it could have a huge difference.
They did provide it in the release. I love a go at this government but on this occasion what they released was wilfully distorted. The bit about hospitals and care homes was the first caveat provided.
It wasn’t even individual journalists. Beth Righby and Sam Coates definitely tweeted the caveat out with the headline number, as did some BBC journo who I forget. It looks like an editorial decision to attract clicks.
Last edited by Lee; 16-05-2020 at 11:16 PM.
With actual numbers? It seemed not from your last response to when I asked for the numbers. And if not, it's just more potential fudging.
No just the caveat, as far as I know. Any number will just be a range estimated backwards from deaths, hospitalisations and cross-referenced with the tested positive rate. Which is fair enough as we’re not testing everybody in the country and we can have high confidence that we are a fair bit below 1 given the rate of reduction across a number of measures.
Thanks, that makes a lot of sense.
On this, I don’t think it does seem that unlikely on face value. For all the talk of people fucking the lockdown off, they’re only going to parks and other relatively safe places. All the high risk places are closed and sick people are staying at home. There also seems to be an emerging belief that asymptomatic transmission is quite low, which makes sense. Van Tam was going on about this a couple of weeks back. If you’re not coughing into somebody’s face, talking at close quarters for hours or licking your hands and wiping it on your mate’s cutlery then how on earth are you spreading it? It’s novel but it’s not fucking alien. It’s a respiratory infection. We broadly know how they spread.
Compare that to a nursing home. Carers with no PPE going from person to person, demented old birds wandering and coughing all over the shop. All in an enclosed space, with lots of residents and shit ventilation. Fuck that. The R must be through the fucking roof.
Course, but compare the sheer number of people not in care homes vs. those that are and it's a gigantic difference. Plus all those working in them are presumably going home and spreading it too.
There are loads more people outside care homes but almost all of them don’t have it and those who do aren’t going anywhere to spread it. If you live in a care home and have it you’re much more likely to be spreading it because of the environment you’re in. Presumably care home workers who get it go and stay home and whoever they live with, if they get it (only 15% of people who live with somebody who has it, catch it, so the chances aren’t that high), does the same thing, so they’re not spreading it in any meaningful way.
I think there is a misconception about how contagious this is, or at least has been in the UK. The assessment in this country is that the R was at around 3 (with some regional variation) at peak. The common cold is 2-3, for context. If Lauren gets a cold I don’t, more often than not, and we share a bed. If one person who is symptomatic for a week thinks they have a rough cold and goes about their business as normal is only giving it to three people.....
It’s obviously contagious enough for exponential growth but how many normal interactions of all kinds, and with how many, are you having in a week? Quite a lot, I’d wager. Almost certainly a lot more than three. And that’s at the peak (in this country - other countries have different estimates) with no interventions. You start washing your hands more, staying in if you develop any symptoms and that will reduce things quite a lot.
If your care home worker is only going home and then isolating when ill and the people they live with do the same then the thing isn’t going anywhere else and the epidemic shrinks. People who live in care homes don’t have that luxury. It keeps spreading until it runs out of hosts. Older people have weaker immune systems so the R is likely a lot higher than outside because it will spread more easily.
Last edited by Lee; 17-05-2020 at 12:59 AM.
All good points. I'd just like to see the numbers and the split within.
But if it isn't actually that contagious, or as contagious as it's perceived to be (I'm just as guilty for believing that as anyone), and it's only really a danger to those who are old or have underlying health conditions, why on earth am I still not allowed to go round to my Sister's to see her and her young family, and why on earth did a load of countries lock down far harder than us?
Because contagious is contagious. As long as the R is above 1 it will grow. That it isn’t measles (R of ~12) matters less han the consequences of getting it. One person giving it to three others in a highly interactive society will lead to rapid exponential growth of a disease which results in higher hospitalisation (and critical care) rates and longer hospital stays than other things we deal with more regularly. This in a system which already has less capacity than the demand it faces. Hospitals get full, resources stretched, people don’t get the care they need. Not just for covid but for all sorts of other things.
You probably could go and see your sister quite safely if you’ve both been following the rules but from a policy point of view, while we drive numbers down, its sensible to make the rules blanket ones. If they’re otherwise it’s easier for people to find reasons why they’re also an exception. As this progresses we’ll probably end up with vulnerable groups still shielded and periodic lockdowns of different localities. Anyway...
Contagiousness will vary from country to country, from living environment to living environment, which is why different places find different reproductive values. If the first person ever to have got this lived alone, felt like shit and didn’t go anywhere until they were better then there’s no reproduction. If they went to bars every night and stood inches from lots of different people, shouting to be heard over music, for prolonged periods then you have a very different picture. It’s still the same virus. Obviously reality is in between those examples and there are lots of different degrees of in between.
In terms of policy decisions, who knows? You’ve lots of different governments with different levels of preparedness and healthcare capacity trying to make sense of advice based on incomplete evidence about the behaviour of a new virus. But nobody in Europe is that out of step with the general response. There is a range between Sweden and Italy/Spain/France but it isn’t that broad. Swedes aren’t all out partying and visiting grandma and the Italians aren’t being fed on army delivered rations. All have deployed social distancing advice and told people not to meet in crowds or in confined spaces where it will spread most easily. All have made a mess of care homes. You get differences because, to employ the cliché; advisors advise and ministers decide. You have lots of different governments so you’ll get lots of different decisions. It’s quite telling that the decisions haven’t been all that different, though.
Agree on the number/split, by the way. It should be shared. I suspect the reason it isn’t being (or if it is it isn’t being pushed) is that they don’t want us all rushing out at once and banging on the pub doors.
Last edited by Lee; 17-05-2020 at 01:32 AM.
Your response doesn't really answer the question as to why we're still in lockdown to the degree that we are or perhaps more interestingly offer your opinion as to whether we should be. It just sort of states the obvious.
Not trying to be difficult, confrontational or a cunt, just want to understand from someone who has something of an inside track on these things.
Oh and 24 update for Kik's. up to season 5's mid point now.
Season 1: Still a classic
Season 2: Pretty good up to a certain point and then falls off hugely after one of the best episodes they ever did.
Season 3: Not bad, but a bit clunkier than I remember. Probably includes the single stand out moment of the whole show.
Season 4: An absolute mess. I remember it signifying a drop in quality, but watching it again it's just outright poor. A load of crappy plots tied together, none of which really work. What was done well though was the last half an hour of it, which was brilliant.
I'll comment on 5 when I've finished it.
I don’t have any inside track, I’m not in the government and I have no more access to the information they release than you do. I don’t know what answer you expect I’d have that wasn’t the obvious. The governments of most countries are doing the obvious. I’d add though that the obvious is only the obvious because we know what we know from the (albeit limited) evidence to hand. There is no common sense hive mind.
My opinion is that we need to stay as locked down as we are now until the number of new cases is low enough for us to track, trace and isolate cases before they become a new epidemic. Then you open up. I don’t know how long that will take, or what the magic number of cases is because nobody is telling us that or, just as importantly, what our track and trace resource (and plan) is. I don’t know how far you open up either. You could probably do so fully for the healthy under 60s but I don’t know if that’s enforceable and the government sure as shit isn’t about to go and upset its core vote by making that decision.
Even those things are from where we are now though. We have fucked it up as a nation and the world has fucked up collectively. The notion of a dangerous pandemic is hardly fucking new. There should have been international cooperation in place, a plan in place to protect supply chains for essential goods so that borders could have been closed and people told to stay the fuck in for governments to provide essentials to people. We’d have endure a shit time but it would have been relatively short. The thing can’t survive without hosts. I’m sure that’s probably too idealistic and there are a million reasons why it’s really hard but, again, the threat of a global pandemic wasn’t a secret. They happen every 20-30 years. And every time they do the world just sighs with relief that it wasn’t THE BIG ONE.
Failing that, as a nation the same principle stands. It’s alright blaming the Chinese for lying (and they’ve been cunts and need dealing with) and the WHO for being incompetent (also true) but do we not have people on the ground in these fucking places/organisations? We know we do and we know Trump was getting intelligence reports early in the new year saying this could be bad. Our own fucking boffins were talking about the threat as early as January. We knew it was coming. It’s impossible for me to believe otherwise. We should have stopped flights from China and, if necessary, countries from which we receive large volumes of people and which didn’t do the same themselves.
It would have been tough politically because people tend not to believe something is a problem until granny is dying of it, but the job of governments is to know best and to lead in matters of safety and security. It’s their primary function. I’m sure I’d have pissed and moaned for a bit about not being able to go on holiday or whatever but I can’t do that now and there are tens of thousands dead.
Last edited by Lee; 17-05-2020 at 02:07 AM.
Are you referring to that Mason episode as one of those best moments? That, and someone losing an arm were the outstanding moments for me.
From about season 3 onwards it was like the writers wrote episodes one at a time. There wasn't a coherent plot for the most part.
People still believing that each death announcement is people actually dying that day.
I mean, DHSC report it as such. I know there's a reporting lag but people will take that on face value. Anyway, I too would like more regional data. It's why I like that Covid live UK map that's about. You can kind of surmise where the bother is from that.
From what I've looked at, Durham itself is clean. The big student population probably helps. As does the Asian community which takes this shit very seriously. Our big employers are the Home Office, DWP and National Savings & Investments. All of which will be getting orders (not advisories) from the government to socially distance or work from home. As for the rest of the County, it's geographically strung out with Middlesbrough probably making up the numbers.
I might start punching some care home addresses into it and seeing what numbers come back.
Last edited by Shindig; 17-05-2020 at 08:29 AM.
I know, and it's absolutely on purpose. What's the agenda here? Never understood that if they want the economy back why aren't they falling over themselves to say otherwise? Hark back to the days of Italy and the pictures/videos of Lombardy's hospitals, people turning around like turkeys on a spit, etc. Yet here we've not seen a single thing. Doctors etc being sent home early as they have fuck all to do. Empty hospitals. What's the hidden picture here? Is it really just to cover up the massive care home shame?
Thing is, the actual dates of death do get circulated to the press. The BBC would occasionally report it in their write-ups. (X happened last week or before May X, etc). For ease of quickness, the DHSC put these out in their simplest terms. The ONS collate the actual data and report it weeks later. Because it takes forever, probably.
Alright, here we go. Coronavirus deaths in care home postcodes in Sunderland. Data from 1st March up until April 17th. All deaths in brackets.
Ashlea Lodge / Bluebird Care - 5 (11)
Barnes Court / The Croft / Holly Cross - 5 (25) - That explains the high deaths for all causes, then.
Cedar House / Montpellier Terrace / Ashbourne Lodge / Swanton Care / Brentwood / Ashdale - 10 (25)
Strawberry Court - 5 (13)
Carisbrooke Care - 1 (9)
Glenholme House - 1 (23)
I think I'll give up. A lot of these fall within the same areas hence why they're a bit skewed. Maybe not as precise as I'd hoped. Boro, then.
The Willows - 1 (9)
Evergreen Court - 3 (14)
Oaklea - 3 (20)
The Gables - 7 (15)
Elizabeth House - 4 (14)
Primrose Court - 7 (19)
Parkville Care Centre - 2 (9)
Delamere Lodge - 2 (12)
Stainton Way - 8 (26)
Anchor - 4 (18)
These death statistics relate to the postcodes (I guess local council diocese) these care homes are in and may not reflect deaths within their residential care. Keep in mind some care homes may also be in the vicinity. These are by no means a full picture and you should not burn down your nearest care home or remove your elderly relatives from the care they need
Superb. Mason and Chapelle dying were both big. I did like how cool James Heller was though.
Lockdown fully ended yesterday with a day of football, booze, banter and bags and boy did it feel good.
I can't remember much about season four (I watched them all as they originally aired and haven't re-watched them since, so it's obviously all a bit of a blur to me now) but I do remember actually getting out of my seat and shouting at the television in excitement at the bit where Tony turns up from nowhere and rescues Jack and Audrey from a warehouse full of terrorist goons, or something.
I basically used to love anything involving Tony Almeida on 24. I don't know why, he was just my favourite character by a mile.
Has Jack reached peak torturing yet? It felt like he was torturing somebody about three times an episode towards the middle of the shows overall run. After reading a quick recap I think season five was one of the better seasons, from memory.
Who are all these wallies complaining to Ofcom that Piers Morgan was mean to a government minister?
He needs a reality check. Sack the cunt.
I don’t actually mind him, even if he does it for attention. Still asks the right questions and calls them out for their incompetence and lies.
But nobody likes anyone calling out their political team. Everyone in England treats politics like they’re a Liverpool supporter.
Brexit fucked everything.
He asked/baited them to do so, didn't he?
Every time anyone gives him attention (including me in this post) another nail is hammered into the coffin of civilisation.
I still find it odd his career went from "Whoops, my actions as editor might've obstructed a murder case" to "Hi, I'm Larry King ...'s replacement." in the space of months.
Only 6 people have died in Queensland.
We need to put a wall around Victoria. The plastic Solicialists have closed 12 McDonalds because of outbreaks.
NSW can cry me a fucking river after their massive whinge about our border closure with them extending untill September. Double bonus is we continue to piss off the anti vax mongrels just south of the tweed.
The People's Republic of Queensland is tracking well and could form a new country with New Zealand and the Northern Territory. Hard border with everyone else including visa and tracking collars.
Infact we could offer Arnhem Land to PM Ardern as tribute.
Last edited by Queenslander; 18-05-2020 at 06:23 AM.
If I have a house in Port Douglas can I become an honorary citizen?
You're English just asking grants you citizenship. Ill be shipping most new arrivals to NQ anywayl just to dilute whatever it is that makes them the way they are...
Last edited by Queenslander; 18-05-2020 at 06:41 AM.
Is Queensland where all our bottom feeders are? I know very little Australian geography.
Queensland is massive. Brisbane is where the majority of the population is and it is a pretty run of the mill place easy livin but not a tourist destination. The Gold Coast is absolute trash as soon as you step back from the beach. North Queensland is where we keep our brightest and sharpest racist mentallists. Outback QLD is ok in parts and pretty bloody weird in other parts. All love hating lefties, Asians, Muslims etc despite probably.never meeting one.
Inner City Brisbane is a really nice place to live. Also South East Queensland is very very multicultral which does surprise people I have spoken to over the years. Brisbane does get hit with a lazy jab about being racist but it really isnt at all.
Last edited by Queenslander; 18-05-2020 at 07:16 AM.
Far North Queensland is god's country, although, admittedly, the locals are a bit mental.
But that can be blamed on them mostly being Victorians, I think.
You can keep all the internment camps around the Townsville region. Or Rockhampton. Or anywhere in that 1000 or so miles between Cairns and civilisation.
Those days of nice traffic will be missed.
I should've saved myself the bother of the care home deaths. BBC reported the numbers on the 5th. 120 care home deaths in County Durham (out of 313 in total). The highest in the North East although that probably covers some of Teesside. Of Tyne and Wear's 721 deaths, 54 were in Sunderland, 47 in Gateshead, 46 in Northumberland.
The idea of rounding up Victorians and putting them in internment camps...
I do think most of them move to the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast I couldnt imagine too manyof them being suited to NQ summer and there non existen winter.
To add to Yevrah's list of e-victories over the scientific community:
Post above was 1st April.
Coming up to 9 weeks now for me so won't bother getting tested.
They're so fucking slow to every punch.
It's almost as if science needs to prove something before they declare it as official guidance. Lazy fuckers.
Scientists are meant to be an international community. It's clearly been proven to a standard sufficient for several other countries. Is the concern that we have our own unique set of symptoms?
Basically Taz, the rules when it comes to science are as follows:
Science is allowed as long as it likes to come to a decision, irrespective of what's actually happening in the real world during that time.
Science can never be wrong in that decision, just different.
Science's decision is not final, it's only guidance. Ultimately government makes the decisions.
If that decision is wro...sorry, different then that's on the government. If it's right, that's why science is brilliant.
We have awful scientific advisors. I don't know what more needs to happen for them to stop being given an almost completely free pass.
In between all that however the MSM chooses to portray it, is exactly what the majority of the population believes to be absolute truth.
Want another run at that?
Basically, there are shit people in jobs and professions up and down the land, the world over. Quite how this automatically stops being a truism when it comes to scientific advisors is absolutely beyond me.
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