Last Man Standing

[-james-]

https://www.spreadex.com/sports/en-G...s/spr/p3295348

Spreadex have it at 137 - 142 so 140 seems a fine guess.

[Baz]

I did 139

[Baz]

Decided to run my own version of this if anyone fancies playing? Redone the prices to match the current outright odds.

Last Man Balling

[SincereTheRebel]

Ive thrown 40 at various euro games over the summer. 4 days to late.

[SincereTheRebel]

So ive been running one for euros. Managed to get 19 man to give up a £10 for two lives. First round and we only have two man with two lives left. Belgium, Denmark and surprisingly Ukraine costing lives. I went with Italy and thinking about going with Croatia

[Baz]

Using predicted group stage goals as a proxy for team strength, I (chatgpt) get England, Germany and Turkey as the optimal 3.

from itertools import combinations
import pandas as pd 

teams = ['England', 'France', 'Germany', 'Portugal', 'Spain', 'Belgium', 'Italy', 'Netherlands', 'Croatia', 'Denmark', 'Turkey', 'Ukraine', 'Switzerland', 'Serbia', 'Czechia', 'Austria', 'Hungary', 'Romania', 'Slovakia', 'Scotland', 'Georgia', 'Poland', 'Slovenia', 'Albania']
xG = [8.5, 8.1, 8, 7.5, 7, 6.9, 5.3, 5, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.3, 3, 3, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3, 1.5]
cost = [22, 24, 16, 21, 19, 23, 18, 20, 17, 14, 6, 13, 15, 9, 8, 12, 11, 5, 4, 7, 1, 10, 3, 2]

df = pd.DataFrame({
    'Team': teams,
    'xG': xG,
    'Cost': cost
})

max_xG = 0
best_combination = None

for combination in combinations(df.itertuples(), 3):
    total_cost = sum(team.Cost for team in combination)
    total_xG = sum(team.xG for team in combination)
    
    if total_cost <= 50 and total_xG > max_xG:
        max_xG = total_xG
        best_combination = combination

result = [(team.Team, team.xG, team.Cost) for team in best_combination]

[('England', 8.5, 22), ('Germany', 8.0, 16), ('Turkey', 3.8, 6)]

[Baz]

Is it mathematically possible for me to win?

Toggle Spoiler

[SincereTheRebel]

How did this go in the end? My last to stand challenege for the euros, the winner with £10 entry fee won £210.

Will you be doing a game with a cash prize during the prem?

[Baz]

nah. I was going to, and started redoing the website to try and drum up interest for a massive online game, but my hearts not in it.

[SincereTheRebel]

nah. I was going to, and started redoing the website to try and drum up interest for a massive online game, but my hearts not in it.

Im running a similar game but its got a £20 entry fee for mine. No website for me though. Its just 15+ lads i know personally.

However its a league table format. Your team wins, you get 3 points against your name. You draw, you get 1 point. Most points at end of the seasons wins 65%+ of the pot. It will go all the way to the end of the season.

[Baz]

Sounds like a fun spin on it. Better than being ‘out’ when your team doesn’t win. Will be interesting to see if it’s close by the end of the season.

[SincereTheRebel]

Your version, Ive ran three times now and 75% of the players are out before the 25% of the competition has been completed. The seethe

[Lofty]

Some knock out rounds we've done in our whatsapp group have seen perverts scooping the kitty before the tea time kick off

[SincereTheRebel]

Yeah Always my biggest concern is reaching the final rounds with half the group left but it NEVER gets to that point. Its much more difficult that expected.

@Baz Your game has a £5 public entry fee plus you are probably making some income on the back end. You have a whole website ffs. Mine is a 20£ fee and its private with my man dem. If you are doing yours, i will not try and push mine in TTH. Yours has a bigger pull plus its cheaper, ya cunt.

[Baz]

nah you go for it.

I’m wrestling with getting the website to display the correct fixtures, more of a hobby than with grand plans.

FWIW the website hosting is free and the domain name was cheap. Plan is to have 90% of entry fees as the prizepot, and take a 10% cut for my time.

[Baz]

Sorry Sincere I've completely knicked your idea.

If anyone wants to join, I'd like it - the more playing, the more fun the spreadsheet is.

£5 entry - game details here - payment here via Stripe (or PM for bank details) - submit via WhatsApp every week so its all in one place.

Game lasts 20 weeks so you end up using every team once. League table format. Winner takes all.

[SincereTheRebel]

That is fine, but i want my percentage. I want in!

[SincereTheRebel]

100+ man in there now ya cunt. @Baz

[Baz]

Nah I padded the numbers in the hope of conning people into joining. It is 9 or 10.

[Baz]

I’ve reverted back to real entries and only on 21. even after posting on Reddit and Twitter. Disappointing!

Anyone here thinking of joining? Info

[Mike]

I’ve joined.

[SincereTheRebel]

I’ve reverted back to real entries and only on 21. even after posting on Reddit and Twitter. Disappointing!

Anyone here thinking of joining? Info

You still scamming your numbers?

[Baz]

You still scamming your numbers?

Nope, all legit now. I need to add 2 more actually, but busy at work.

You joining?

[SincereTheRebel]

No. I will still to the one with my real mates lad. I may squeeze just over 19 man for 20£ each

[Baz]

50 people now with 12 hours to the deadline. Hopefully get a few more. Would be nice to get £300 prizepot, which would be 56 people cos I'm adding the £50 I was offering for the Euros competition but ended up winning.

[SincereTheRebel]

I got 21 man in mine. 420£ in total with the winner taking 70%.

[Baz]

62 here, £325 for the winner. The WhatsApp chat is both civil and not too busy. One of my friends posted an unfunny TikTok video that got shot down with a “If we are going to get more non game related messages like that then not worth carrying on.” so he left in a strop (after sending all 20 selections) so it set the precedent that nobody wants to use it as a LADS group chat. Especially cos there’s at least 2 women playing.

I paid the Twitter account @footyscran to promote my game after he offered, and a week of paid Twitter ads had achieved very little, but he seems to have stolen my money instead.

[Lofty]

Having picked Arsenal and City the first two weeks, I'm struggling this weekend.

[SincereTheRebel]

Brighton and Fulham means im undeafeted. Im going with Chelsea.

[Baz]

In my big local game, 2 x Brighton and 1 x Palace in the final 3 today means a rollover and the prize money is approx £3400.

[SincereTheRebel]

Im currently sitting at the top of my league with 8 wins and 2 draws. Splitting the season in half was smart @Baz. Its such a long time.

[Baz]

Im currently sitting at the top of my league with 8 wins and 2 draws. Splitting the season in half was smart @Baz. Its such a long time.

Top of my league has 30 points after ten straight wins. Hopefully he doesn’t go 20-0.

It’s a lot more work than I’d hoped. Not looking forward to setting up the second half.

[Baz]

View Tweet

If anyone wants to join the new game, starting 14th January.

[Ben]

We've got one starting up at work, starting 4th January. But because we go on shutdown, picks had to be in by this morning. There's two rounds between now and then, so I imagine we see a lot of early fallers.

[Baz]

Decided to run my own version of this if anyone fancies playing? Redone the prices to match the current outright odds.

Last Man Balling

New game starts on Tuesday if anyone wants to sign up? Current prize pot is £387, after someone just won £325. £10 entry.