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Thread: Last Man Standing

  1. #351
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    Depends how many people are left in. Probably a decent idea to switch to West Ham this week especially there are loads of people still in. The game I'm in still has 90 odd people playing which is highly unusual after 6 weeks.
    I've already submitted so Newcastle so here's hoping they win.

    77 left in one, 47 left in the other.
    I'm a twit

  2. #352
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Brentford shitting the bed at home against a woeful Everton side fucked me over.

  3. #353
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Fulham then?
    I'm a twit

  4. #354
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Still going.

    18 in one, 16 in the other. I'm already spending the winnings in my head.

    West Ham this week, at home to Everton. Hopefully the Thursday trip to Greece won't ruin it.
    I'm a twit

  5. #355
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Still going.

    18 in one, 16 in the other. I'm already spending the winnings in my head.

    West Ham this week, at home to Everton. Hopefully the Thursday trip to Greece won't ruin it.
    Have you already used Villa?

    Villa (LUT)
    Palace (bur) / Wolves (shu)
    Man Utd (lut)
    West Ham (bur)
    Brentford (lut)
    Fulham (nfo)
    Wolves (nfo)

    It won't get that far but this is my plan through to GW17. My game has a wild card that you play that sees you through if your selection gets a draw, probably use that next week.

  6. #356
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    No. Villa very popular this week, but is already sent West Ham so cmon Luton (soz).
    I'm a twit

  7. #357
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    Damn.

    Good luck James.
    I'm a twit

  8. #358
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    £680 prize pot has rolled over.

    Starts again this week. Should be over quickly thanks to the rush of Christmas games. More expected to join too so could be close to £1500 prize this time round.

    What’s the plan @-james-?
    I'm a twit

  9. #359
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    £680 prize pot has rolled over.

    Starts again this week. Should be over quickly thanks to the rush of Christmas games. More expected to join too so could be close to £1500 prize this time round.

    What’s the plan @-james-?


    14: Brentford vs Luton
    15: Luton vs Arsenal
    16: Luton vs Manchester City
    17: Nottingham Forest vs Spurs
    18: Aston Villa vs Luton
    19: Burnley vs Liverpool
    20: Manchester United vs Forest
    21: Chelsea vs Fulham
    22: Luton vs Brighton
    23: Newcastle vs Luton
    24: good luck brah

  10. #360
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Blood bath this week. 70 eliminated, 26 progress to round 4.
    I'm a twit

  11. #361
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Dead
    I'm a twit

  12. #362
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Useless vampire cunt.

  13. #363
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Another rollover prize is starting to get unreal
    I'm a twit

  14. #364
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Did some absolute maniac pick Chelsea this weekend?

  15. #365
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    Did some absolute maniac pick Chelsea this weekend?
    Surprisingly not.

    18 Aston Villa
    4 Fulham
    3 Newcastle
    I'm a twit

  16. #366
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Absolute bloodbath.

  17. #367
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.

    What’s the play @-james-
    I'm a twit

  18. #368
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.

    What’s the play @-james-
    Is it starting this week (where there are only four matches), or after the international break?

  19. #369
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.

    What’s the play @-james-
    How many people are involved in this and how does the money get so high?

  20. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    Is it starting this week (where there are only four matches), or after the international break?
    Unlucky With both selections drawing, the game ends without a winner, so we roll over to game 4. The next full set of fixtures is w/e of 30th March, so we go again then.

    Quote Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel View Post
    How many people are involved in this and how does the money get so high?
    140 players, £10entry, rolled over loads of times.
    I'm a twit

  21. #371
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    Is it starting this week (where there are only four matches), or after the international break?
    Deadline this Friday.
    I'm a twit

  22. #372
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Deadline this Friday.
    I've just entered a game as well. This looks like the optimal path at the moment, though it depends on whether the midweek games in 34 are fair game

    30: Chelsea (BUR)
    31: Liverpool (SHU)
    32: Man City (cry)
    33: Brentford (SHU)
    34: Man Utd (SHU)
    35: Newcastle (SHU)
    36: Arsenal (BOU)
    37: Everton (SHU)
    38: Spurs (SHU)

  23. #373
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Chelsea first up and backing City against one of their few bogey teams? Bold.

  24. #374
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    30: Spurs (LUT)
    31: Liverpool (SHU)
    32: Chelsea (shu)
    33: Man City (LUT)
    34: Man Utd (SHU)
    35: Newcastle (SHU)
    36: Arsenal (BOU)
    37: Everton (SHU)
    38: ?

    This is marginally better I think actually depending on the likelihood of making it to 38. Acca will pay about 7/1 to that point.

  25. #375
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I’ve gone Bournemouth (eve).

    Will copy your second list once Everton are successfully dispatched tomorrow.
    I'm a twit

  26. #376
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Gone Arsenal like a mad man.

  27. #377
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    Bet you glad you switched from Chelsea to Spurs
    I'm a twit

  28. #378
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Yep, cheers niko. Over half the field out.

  29. #379
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    Dropping like flies with all these draws.
    I'm a twit

  30. #380
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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  31. #381
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    You were warned.

  32. #382
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I'd do it again. :shrug,:

  33. #383
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Surely even the data at this point suggests that Chelsea are a bit of a punt in any situation.

  34. #384
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I generally just try minimize the odds of getting to the number of matches I expect the game to run for. Chelsea were the joint second shortest team this week (City 1.35, Spurs/Chelsea 1.42, Arsenal 1.52, Liverpool 1.59, Everton 1.75), but in hindsight there was a pretty good case for Arsenal/Everton (considering I was looking at picking them much later and I'm not sure the game will get there).

  35. #385
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    What happenes if Person A has a life left, but they cant make any picks from the teams as they have already picked them previously. Person B has a life left? @-james- @Baz

  36. #386
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SincereTheRebel View Post
    What happenes if Person A has a life left, but they cant make any picks from the teams as they have already picked them previously. Person B has a life left? @-james- @Baz
    Do you mean that they've picked all 20 teams? That would depend on the rules of your game. Usually it loops back around.

  37. #387
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    Do you mean that they've picked all 20 teams? That would depend on the rules of your game. Usually it loops back around.
    For example. I want to run one for the euros. Lets says its the semi final and all four teams, have already been picked by Person A. Are you saying it resets for them, even though they have picked the four teams in the semi's. They get to pick either of the four teams left?

  38. #388
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    I'm not sure I've seen it run for a knockout tournament like that before. I think a better rule would be if you don't have any teams left if you get to the semi or final, you're out. Would incentivise riskier play (picking weaker teams) in the groups.

  39. #389
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Yeah, does sound tricky with knockout football but Ill give it a go, and cross that bridge when I get there.

  40. #390
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    You definitely want to declare the rules from the outset. I see three options:

    Knocked out when you run out of teams
    Get a fresh set if you run out of teams
    Fresh set after the group stage

  41. #391
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    I prefer the agressive approach. Knocked out when you run out of teams will force you, to pick teams that have yet to the win the competition in the hope you can save picks for the later stages.

  42. #392
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I’ve the option to enter into a bit of a weird comp for the euros. Will do it to keep me interested.

    Basically you get 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw. All points added up for all your 3 team choices. If all your 3 teams don’t make it through to knock out stages your likely to not win as you won’t pick up any points from them games. Person with the most points at the end wins. However, everyone will guess how many goals are scored throughout the competition at the beginning with the 3 team selection and if there are 2 or more people on the same points at the end we use your goal selection to see who’s closest and they will win.
    Toggle Spoiler


    Any obvious ways to win?
    I'm a twit

  43. #393
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Sounds like you get to pick your three teams and its not a random draw?

  44. #394
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Yeah you pick 3 upto the value of 50.

    Germany seem a must at 16, especially considering Croatia are 17 and their groups solid.
    I'm a twit

  45. #395
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I would go France, Portugal and Romania or maybe France, England and Slovenia.

  46. #396
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Belgium seem high. As you say, Germany is a must.

  47. #397
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Using predicted group stage goals as a proxy for team strength, I (chatgpt) get England, Germany and Turkey as the optimal 3.



    Code:
    from itertools import combinations
    import pandas as pd 
    
    teams = ['England', 'France', 'Germany', 'Portugal', 'Spain', 'Belgium', 'Italy', 'Netherlands', 'Croatia', 'Denmark', 'Turkey', 'Ukraine', 'Switzerland', 'Serbia', 'Czechia', 'Austria', 'Hungary', 'Romania', 'Slovakia', 'Scotland', 'Georgia', 'Poland', 'Slovenia', 'Albania']
    xG = [8.5, 8.1, 8, 7.5, 7, 6.9, 5.3, 5, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.3, 3, 3, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3, 1.5]
    cost = [22, 24, 16, 21, 19, 23, 18, 20, 17, 14, 6, 13, 15, 9, 8, 12, 11, 5, 4, 7, 1, 10, 3, 2]
    
    df = pd.DataFrame({
        'Team': teams,
        'xG': xG,
        'Cost': cost
    })
    
    max_xG = 0
    best_combination = None
    
    for combination in combinations(df.itertuples(), 3):
        total_cost = sum(team.Cost for team in combination)
        total_xG = sum(team.xG for team in combination)
        
        if total_cost <= 50 and total_xG > max_xG:
            max_xG = total_xG
            best_combination = combination
    
    result = [(team.Team, team.xG, team.Cost) for team in best_combination]

    [('England', 8.5, 22), ('Germany', 8.0, 16), ('Turkey', 3.8, 6)]
    Last edited by -james-; 27-05-2024 at 02:23 PM.

  48. #398
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    That’s that then.
    I'm a twit

  49. #399
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Any guesses for the tiebreaker?
    I'm a twit

  50. #400
    Senior Member SincereTheRebel's Avatar
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    Seems like more goals are being scored than ever. Not sure if this is a fact across the major european leagues but i would go higher than ever

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