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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #7651

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    Jango Baie flying there, would have probably won if not for that interference.

  2. #7652
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    The Nicholls yard seems spot on atm. Pic D'Orhy, Kandoo Kid, Afadil E/W treble.

  3. #7653
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    I have no idea why I backed Jonbon in this dirty treble as I fancy Pic D’ohry as well. This 2nd place finish is gonna be fun

  4. #7654
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Oh Jonbon baby

    Tempted to whack it all on Corach to bring it home

  5. #7655
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    FAVs galore.

  6. #7656
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    It’s taken me far too long to realise it’s the way forward. These long shot Yankee’s are utterly pointless.

    Trixie on Harry’s two favs in the next couple races and Zeeband in the last

  7. #7657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    Oh Jonbon baby

    Tempted to whack it all on Corach to bring it home
    Might as well. Race seems as tied up as Tiger Roll’s second one.
    I'm a twit

  8. #7658
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Lovely drift on him as well like last year

  9. #7659

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    Yep I'm all over it at 7/1. The Model agrees.

  10. #7660
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben View Post
    Yep I'm all over it at 7/1. The Model agrees.
    What does your model think of Janidil #8?

    Highest odds at the moment at 150/1 but hardly ever doesn’t finish a race, 159 OR (and 171 RPR fwiw) feels like a solid EW.
    I'm a twit

  11. #7661

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    Funny you should say that, I've stuck a few quid on it too. Model fancies it a bit. I'll post up all the times shortly.

  12. #7662

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    Code:
    num	name			pred		min		max		WIN%
    1	Noble Yeats		553.2005611	550.9610426	555.4491827	19.83%
    2	Nassalam		556.965241	554.710482	559.2291651	0.00%
    3	Coko Beach		555.9924704	553.7416494	558.2524404	0.54%
    4	Capodanno		556.3125482	554.0604314	558.5738192	0.00%
    5	I Am Maximus		555.2836849	553.0357333	557.5407738	5.44%
    6	Minella Indo		564.162835	561.878938	566.4560155	0.00%
    7	Corach Rambler		551.5773376	549.3443904	553.8193612	31.04%
    8	Janidil			554.7460366	552.5002615	557.0009401	9.15%
    9	Stattler		563.1266543	560.846952	565.4156229	0.00%
    10	Mahler Mission		555.950639	553.6999873	558.2104389	0.83%
    11	Delta Work		557.9633524	555.7045527	560.2313335	0.00%
    12	Foxy Jacks		557.8414555	555.5831493	560.1089412	0.00%
    13	Galvin			557.8162962	555.5580918	560.0836796	0.00%
    14	Farouk D'Alene		565.5759083	563.2862908	567.8748326	0.00%
    15	Eldorado Allen		556.4142034	554.1616751	558.6758877	0.00%
    16	Ain't That A Shame	557.432053	555.1754041	559.6978745	0.00%
    17	Vanillier		556.0602951	553.8091996	558.3205408	0.07%
    18	Mr Incredible		556.066479	553.8153584	558.3267498	0.03%
    19	Run Wild Fred		555.9159072	553.6653961	558.175566	1.07%
    20	Latenightpass		557.557236	555.3000804	559.8235663	0.00%
    21	Minella Crooner		557.259587	555.0036364	559.5247075	0.00%
    22	Adamantly Chosen	555.0748866	552.8277803	557.3311268	6.88%
    23	Mac Tottie		560.6568361	558.3871324	562.9357656	0.00%
    24	Chemical Energy		557.6202132	555.3628027	559.8867996	0.00%
    25	Limerick Lace		554.9643753	552.7177163	557.2201663	7.64%
    26	Meetingofthewaters	555.7029279	553.4532791	557.961721	2.54%
    27	The Goffer		555.882062	553.631688	558.1415832	1.30%
    28	Roi Mage		555.2125269	552.9648633	557.4693266	5.93%
    29	Glengouly		556.1774076	553.9258379	558.4381293	0.00%
    30	Galia Des Liteaux	555.4376072	553.1890325	557.6953218	4.37%
    31	Panda Boy		565.1879634	562.8999164	567.4853108	0.00%
    32	Eklat De Dire		560.8592319	558.5887088	563.1389841	0.00%
    33	Chambard		555.7844225	553.5344437	558.0435468	1.98%
    34	Kitty's Light		555.871356	553.6210253	558.1308337	1.38%

  13. #7663
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    McManus' horses being absoutley hammered in the market.

  14. #7664

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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    McManus' horses being absoutley hammered in the market.
    Hope they keep going. Corach Rambler out to 17/2 now.

  15. #7665
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben View Post
    Hope they keep going. Corach Rambler out to 17/2 now.
    Have you got BOG or keep going in?

    Wish I’d have backed the 150/1 before posting and it clearly going viral. Had to settle for 117/1 with Hills’ weird boost. Max bet £40 too, was all set to get rich.
    I'm a twit

  16. #7666
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    Sholing are playing Walton today.

    Walton sacked there manager midweek and core players have all gone with him

    3 of the back 4 and the GK have left

    Sholing need the points as well

    21/10

    Stick it in a double with Farnborough who are playing Taunton.

    Taunton playing their 7th game in 15 days.

    Double is just over 2/1 with Denise. Free money?
    I'm a twit

  17. #7667
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    Also one for @Giggles while I’m sharing dodgy info from my group

    In the Nicky Rackard Hurling I’ve backed Kildare to cover the -14 vs Sligo.

    Kildare 2 divisions above Sligo in the league and have been impressive. Huge gulf in class here.

    Reckon they’ll win 20+

    Kildare -14 10/11 (Boyles,Powers)
    Starts at 1pm
    I'm a twit

  18. #7668
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Corach, west balboa, brighterdaysahead & Found a Fifty in doubles and trebles.

    Bottled sticking 200 on Corach and settled for £50 at 8s

  19. #7669

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Have you got BOG or keep going in?
    BOG

    14:30 Aintree - Cruz Control 8/1

    17:00 Aintree - Nickle Back 10/1
    Last edited by Ben; 13-04-2024 at 12:53 PM.

  20. #7670
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Toggle Spoiler


    Just hit 1000/1 on a 10p scratch card from Paddy Power’s 1 free spin a day thing

    Not a chance Corach is winning now with that luck

  21. #7671

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    Lump it on. McManus' luck has to turn some time.

  22. #7672
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Brighter days ahead is an absolute weapon. How did they get that best at Cheltenham

  23. #7673

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    Glad I didn't bother with that race. Cheltenham spooked me so didn't fancy it at 11/10. Silly me.

  24. #7674
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben View Post
    BOG

    14:30 Aintree - Cruz Control 8/1

    17:00 Aintree - Nickle Back 10/1
    Legend. Backed it in a trixie with BDA and flooring Porter in the next. mon

  25. #7675

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    Cruz Control

    Led start to finish. Thought it was getting caught a few times but great ride from Sheppard.

  26. #7676
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    I've gone all in on Mahler Misson 16/1.

  27. #7677
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I'm a twit

  28. #7678

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    Jockey just jumped off the cunt.

  29. #7679
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Wife turns to me 5 seconds before the race is off and says 'I've got I Am Maximus in the work sweep, can you put me £5 EW on it?'

  30. #7680
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Well, that went well.

    Mon found a fifty

  31. #7681
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Absoutley romped home. Future Gold Cup winner for sure.

  32. #7682
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Sholing are playing Walton today.

    Walton sacked there manager midweek and core players have all gone with him

    3 of the back 4 and the GK have left

    Sholing need the points as well

    21/10

    Stick it in a double with Farnborough who are playing Taunton.

    Taunton playing their 7th game in 15 days.

    Double is just over 2/1 with Denise. Free money?
    Taunton . My beloved Peacocks!

  33. #7683

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    Whilst I've still plenty of tweaking to do on the chase/hurdle models to improve them, I've decided to have a look into flats because I've already got the data scraped.

    Turns out flats might be a lot more accurate in a predictor (which makes sense as the distance is shorter, less non-finishers, draw bias etc.). My chase model is topping out at around 0.9955 accuracy with 25 years of data so I'd have to start adding in manually calculated indicators to improve it further (eg. previous class wins, days since last run, jockey form/quality) and then it gets really time consuming. I put in one year's data for flats with the same inputs as chase (plus stall draw) and it's straight to 0.9990 on first test. That could go up a bit more, or fall slightly, as I add in the other 24 years data I've got but it's a promising start. Retrospectively applied it to yesterday's meeting at Yarmouth (no flat meetings today) and got 3 out of 8 winners which is pretty decent considering no favourites won.

    I need to get better at Python though because this is so time consuming. Although I'd otherwise be wasting said time on something that would definitely not be profitable in future years, instead of probably not profitable, and I'm having fun either way.

  34. #7684
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Milan, Lille & Fenerbahce to qualify 15/1.

  35. #7685
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Scottish National card at Ayr tomorrow. My two big fancies are Favour And Fortune in the Champion Hurdle & A Penny A Hundred in the Mares. 25/1 for the double.

    As for the National itself Git Maker 7/1 looks the one to beat. Only 1 pound higher in the handicap after finishing second in the Kim Muir. The winner that day (Inothewayourthinkin) has since gone on to win a G1. Could potentially hack up. Mr Vango looks the best of the rest.

  36. #7686
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Go on then, £10 trixie. Choo choo..
    I'm a twit

  37. #7687
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    Harry Derham double at Bangor.
    I'm a twit

  38. #7688

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    Mr Vango for the Scottish National 12/1. Also Elvis Mail has drifted from 12/1 to 40/1 so unless something is going on in the stable, that looks way, way overpriced now.

    Persian Time in the first race at 6/1.

  39. #7689
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Is it soft ground or something? Vangos a mud monster
    I'm a twit

  40. #7690
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Surprising how little coverage this has had. Don’t think it’s even been mentioned by the Racing Post.
    I'm a twit

  41. #7691
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Look forward to the documentary about it in 30 years.

    Such a corrupt 'business'.

  42. #7692

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    Of course Racing Post won't acknowledge it, because it'll confirm what everyone already knows about Irish racing. I think it's very low risk that it would blow up mainstream, but it's not worth the chance.

  43. #7693
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Everton & Sheffield United double 63/1
    I'm a twit

  44. #7694

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    Baz

    What's the cash out?

  45. #7695
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I only put £2 on lol so it’s £7.75

    Returns £127.50 later though

    Gone in big on Bournemouth though so I’m flicking between the two
    I'm a twit

  46. #7696
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    As long as that useless cunt is upfront for us I wouldn’t worry about the Everton leg of it.

  47. #7697
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Zander Lombard 55/1 - ISPS Handa

  48. #7698
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Ukraine 12s e/w for Eurovision is certainly too big.

  49. #7699
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Shishkin’s dead
    I'm a twit

  50. #7700
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Seen that. Not a great year for Hendo.

    Karma for not running Conny Hill more often IMO

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