Jango Baie flying there, would have probably won if not for that interference.
Jango Baie flying there, would have probably won if not for that interference.
The Nicholls yard seems spot on atm. Pic D'Orhy, Kandoo Kid, Afadil E/W treble.
I have no idea why I backed Jonbon in this dirty treble as I fancy Pic D’ohry as well. This 2nd place finish is gonna be fun
Oh Jonbon baby
Tempted to whack it all on Corach to bring it home
FAVs galore.
It’s taken me far too long to realise it’s the way forward. These long shot Yankee’s are utterly pointless.
Trixie on Harry’s two favs in the next couple races and Zeeband in the last
Might as well. Race seems as tied up as Tiger Roll’s second one.Originally Posted by Waffdon
I'm a twit
Lovely drift on him as well like last year
Yep I'm all over it at 7/1. The Model agrees.
What does your model think of Janidil #8?
Highest odds at the moment at 150/1 but hardly ever doesn’t finish a race, 159 OR (and 171 RPR fwiw) feels like a solid EW.
I'm a twit
Funny you should say that, I've stuck a few quid on it too. Model fancies it a bit. I'll post up all the times shortly.
Code:num name pred min max WIN% 1 Noble Yeats 553.2005611 550.9610426 555.4491827 19.83% 2 Nassalam 556.965241 554.710482 559.2291651 0.00% 3 Coko Beach 555.9924704 553.7416494 558.2524404 0.54% 4 Capodanno 556.3125482 554.0604314 558.5738192 0.00% 5 I Am Maximus 555.2836849 553.0357333 557.5407738 5.44% 6 Minella Indo 564.162835 561.878938 566.4560155 0.00% 7 Corach Rambler 551.5773376 549.3443904 553.8193612 31.04% 8 Janidil 554.7460366 552.5002615 557.0009401 9.15% 9 Stattler 563.1266543 560.846952 565.4156229 0.00% 10 Mahler Mission 555.950639 553.6999873 558.2104389 0.83% 11 Delta Work 557.9633524 555.7045527 560.2313335 0.00% 12 Foxy Jacks 557.8414555 555.5831493 560.1089412 0.00% 13 Galvin 557.8162962 555.5580918 560.0836796 0.00% 14 Farouk D'Alene 565.5759083 563.2862908 567.8748326 0.00% 15 Eldorado Allen 556.4142034 554.1616751 558.6758877 0.00% 16 Ain't That A Shame 557.432053 555.1754041 559.6978745 0.00% 17 Vanillier 556.0602951 553.8091996 558.3205408 0.07% 18 Mr Incredible 556.066479 553.8153584 558.3267498 0.03% 19 Run Wild Fred 555.9159072 553.6653961 558.175566 1.07% 20 Latenightpass 557.557236 555.3000804 559.8235663 0.00% 21 Minella Crooner 557.259587 555.0036364 559.5247075 0.00% 22 Adamantly Chosen 555.0748866 552.8277803 557.3311268 6.88% 23 Mac Tottie 560.6568361 558.3871324 562.9357656 0.00% 24 Chemical Energy 557.6202132 555.3628027 559.8867996 0.00% 25 Limerick Lace 554.9643753 552.7177163 557.2201663 7.64% 26 Meetingofthewaters 555.7029279 553.4532791 557.961721 2.54% 27 The Goffer 555.882062 553.631688 558.1415832 1.30% 28 Roi Mage 555.2125269 552.9648633 557.4693266 5.93% 29 Glengouly 556.1774076 553.9258379 558.4381293 0.00% 30 Galia Des Liteaux 555.4376072 553.1890325 557.6953218 4.37% 31 Panda Boy 565.1879634 562.8999164 567.4853108 0.00% 32 Eklat De Dire 560.8592319 558.5887088 563.1389841 0.00% 33 Chambard 555.7844225 553.5344437 558.0435468 1.98% 34 Kitty's Light 555.871356 553.6210253 558.1308337 1.38%
McManus' horses being absoutley hammered in the market.
Hope they keep going. Corach Rambler out to 17/2 now.
Have you got BOG or keep going in?
Wish I’d have backed the 150/1 before posting and it clearly going viral. Had to settle for 117/1 with Hills’ weird boost. Max bet £40 too, was all set to get rich.
I'm a twit
Sholing are playing Walton today.
Walton sacked there manager midweek and core players have all gone with him
3 of the back 4 and the GK have left
Sholing need the points as well
21/10
Stick it in a double with Farnborough who are playing Taunton.
Taunton playing their 7th game in 15 days.
Double is just over 2/1 with Denise. Free money?
I'm a twit
Also one for @Giggles while I’m sharing dodgy info from my group
In the Nicky Rackard Hurling I’ve backed Kildare to cover the -14 vs Sligo.
Kildare 2 divisions above Sligo in the league and have been impressive. Huge gulf in class here.
Reckon they’ll win 20+
Kildare -14 10/11 (Boyles,Powers)
Starts at 1pm
I'm a twit
Corach, west balboa, brighterdaysahead & Found a Fifty in doubles and trebles.
Bottled sticking 200 on Corach and settled for £50 at 8s
BOG
14:30 Aintree - Cruz Control 8/1
17:00 Aintree - Nickle Back 10/1
Last edited by Ben; 13-04-2024 at 12:53 PM.
Toggle Spoiler
Just hit 1000/1 on a 10p scratch card from Paddy Power’s 1 free spin a day thing
Not a chance Corach is winning now with that luck
Lump it on. McManus' luck has to turn some time.
Brighter days ahead is an absolute weapon. How did they get that best at Cheltenham
Glad I didn't bother with that race. Cheltenham spooked me so didn't fancy it at 11/10. Silly me.
Legend. Backed it in a trixie with BDA and flooring Porter in the next. mon
Cruz Control
Led start to finish. Thought it was getting caught a few times but great ride from Sheppard.
I've gone all in on Mahler Misson 16/1.
I'm a twit
Jockey just jumped off the cunt.
Wife turns to me 5 seconds before the race is off and says 'I've got I Am Maximus in the work sweep, can you put me £5 EW on it?'
Well, that went well.
Mon found a fifty
Absoutley romped home. Future Gold Cup winner for sure.
TauntonSholing are playing Walton today.
Walton sacked there manager midweek and core players have all gone with him
3 of the back 4 and the GK have left
Sholing need the points as well
21/10
Stick it in a double with Farnborough who are playing Taunton.
Taunton playing their 7th game in 15 days.
Double is just over 2/1 with Denise. Free money?. My beloved Peacocks!
Whilst I've still plenty of tweaking to do on the chase/hurdle models to improve them, I've decided to have a look into flats because I've already got the data scraped.
Turns out flats might be a lot more accurate in a predictor (which makes sense as the distance is shorter, less non-finishers, draw bias etc.). My chase model is topping out at around 0.9955 accuracy with 25 years of data so I'd have to start adding in manually calculated indicators to improve it further (eg. previous class wins, days since last run, jockey form/quality) and then it gets really time consuming. I put in one year's data for flats with the same inputs as chase (plus stall draw) and it's straight to 0.9990 on first test. That could go up a bit more, or fall slightly, as I add in the other 24 years data I've got but it's a promising start. Retrospectively applied it to yesterday's meeting at Yarmouth (no flat meetings today) and got 3 out of 8 winners which is pretty decent considering no favourites won.
I need to get better at Python though because this is so time consuming. Although I'd otherwise be wasting said time on something that would definitely not be profitable in future years, instead of probably not profitable, and I'm having fun either way.
Milan, Lille & Fenerbahce to qualify 15/1.
Scottish National card at Ayr tomorrow. My two big fancies are Favour And Fortune in the Champion Hurdle & A Penny A Hundred in the Mares. 25/1 for the double.
As for the National itself Git Maker 7/1 looks the one to beat. Only 1 pound higher in the handicap after finishing second in the Kim Muir. The winner that day (Inothewayourthinkin) has since gone on to win a G1. Could potentially hack up. Mr Vango looks the best of the rest.
Go on then, £10 trixie. Choo choo..
I'm a twit
Harry Derham double at Bangor.
I'm a twit
Mr Vango for the Scottish National 12/1. Also Elvis Mail has drifted from 12/1 to 40/1 so unless something is going on in the stable, that looks way, way overpriced now.
Persian Time in the first race at 6/1.
Is it soft ground or something? Vangos a mud monster
I'm a twit
Surprising how little coverage this has had. Don’t think it’s even been mentioned by the Racing Post.
I'm a twit
Look forward to the documentary about it in 30 years.
Such a corrupt 'business'.
Of course Racing Post won't acknowledge it, because it'll confirm what everyone already knows about Irish racing. I think it's very low risk that it would blow up mainstream, but it's not worth the chance.
Everton & Sheffield United double 63/1
I'm a twit
Baz
What's the cash out?
I only put £2 on lol so it’s £7.75
Returns £127.50 later though
Gone in big on Bournemouth though so I’m flicking between the two
I'm a twit
As long as that useless cunt is upfront for us I wouldn’t worry about the Everton leg of it.
Zander Lombard 55/1 - ISPS Handa
Ukraine 12s e/w for Eurovision is certainly too big.
Shishkin’s dead
I'm a twit
Seen that. Not a great year for Hendo.
Karma for not running Conny Hill more often IMO
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
