Apparently anyone can just register and vote in the caucuses? I'm really shocked that there aren't more people signing up for the other party and trying to vote in the least electable candidate. Especially in elections when there's an incumbent President (so, not this one) and hence no real point to the caucus for one entire side of the political divide.
That would require them to be arsed, I think I read that only 1 in 6 vote in primaries.
These are helpful. It's squeaky bum time for Bernie and Hillary (and let that sentence never be repeated again).
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state
https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state
Cruz has won it, with Rubio currently very close third to Donald Trump. Calling it now, Rubio wins their nomination. It'll be really interesting to see how Trump fares now that he can't cite WINNING all the time.
Cruz taking Iowa is terrible news for Trump, and really opens it up for Rubio once the race moves into more favourable territory for him.
Other stray observations:
Republicans: Jim Gilmore beaten by "Other", 0.1% to 0.0%. Huckabee's officially out of the race.
Democrats: 0.1% of the vote going to "Uncommitted". There's a snowstorm there, and someone trudged to a caucus office to officially record their shrug of indecision.
If Trump loses the nomination, he's going to have a fantastic meltdown at the end of it, surely? He can't possibly go quietly.
EDIT: Oddschecker has Trump blowing out from 1.33 to 2.75, with Rubio firming to 2. Rubio's the only candidate they have who could actually challenge at the general, you'd think. So possibly good news for the Republicans, although as long as Trump doesn't win, everyone wins in a way.
Not me, I'd love to see Trump win.
Rubio is a disgusting little weasel, much rather see Trump win.
That appears to be a house on fire with a young girl at the forefront of the picture. Also present is a fire engine and a fireman in uniform.
Down to 10 votes
Out of 1300, to be fair. But damn.
Oh wait, that's not actually votes. NYT doing a shit job of explaining their graphics. TTH could do better, we could spiff up a poster
Bernie was up to 0.2 away, then back to 0.7 away, now back up to 0.2. Only 7% left to count but it feels like it could take hours.
Martin O'Malley has dropped out. He did a great job as Bernie's wingman for a few months there.
Mike Huckabee won Iowa before - it's a conservative state where you'd expect Cruz to do well. It's quite damaging for Trump in the sense it ruins his narrative and his "momentum", but it's not a huge surprise. Looking at the figures, it seems that a lot of them have decided to swing to Rubio at the end, possibly on the grounds of wider electability. I think that's the 'story' here - it gives Rubio huge momentum, but the immigration issue might shaft him with the whites.
Sanders and Clinton being in a virtual tie is a right laugh, however. Sanders seems a top lad, but SOCIALISM in America is ANTI FREEDOM, so fuck knows. I assume Clinton solidifies the vote in coming states and pulls away, simply because she has far more money and establishment support.
How does it work for both parties here in terms of delegate distribution? Winner takes all or proportional split?
In Iowa it's proportional. Cruz got 7, with Rubio and Trump getting 6.
Lulz: www.loser.com
Lolololol. Like I said, not even a factor.
Imagine Ted Cruz as President though. He's the least 'presidential' looking person I've ever seen. He just seems so awkward, to the extent he comes across as really quite creepy.
Rubio is the only one with a cat in hell's chance of beating Hillary, so that isn't a concern.
An evangelical has won Iowa then got smashed in NH the last two times. We're not out of Trump Towers yet.
Oh Cruz won't win the nomination. Rubio will piss it.
It's even worse with sound.
Farking hell.
All in all it's looking good for Sanders I guess, or at least much better than anticipated.
A Clinton-Rubio 'race' would be absolutely disgusting. Two lying, flip-floping, war-mongering wankers going at each other. Might just pack my bags and leave.
I don't know much about Rubio but Cruz is every bit as crazy as Trump. He's just less shouty about it.
Also, why is this so damaging to Trump exactly? I mean, it's a setback, but why does it double his odds?
Sanders in a dead-heat with Clinton despite all of the advantages she has.
Because it shows the polls are fiction and that Rubio in particular is a lot stronger on the ground.
I see. What were the polls in Iowa predicting?
Trump also needs momentum, his act doesn't work from second place.
The final poll had Trump on 32, Cruz 11 and Rubio 10 or some wank.Originally Posted by Henry
Hmmm.
So, supposedly Cruz got his votes mostly from the rural, Christian fundamentalist parts of Iowa, whereas Trump picked his up in the urban areas.
Bush received 5,000 votes, and based on his spending in the state, each one cost him $3,000.
Sanders got overwhelming majorities among both young people and low income people, whereas Clinton got her votes from the better off and older crowd.
Nate Silver and co had an interesting bit on Iowa being very difficult to predict and the pre-caucus polls not meaning much. Their website appears to be down now that I went looking for the link, but they said the margin of error is about 8 points and even then nobody's sure.
https://www.facebook.com/NewStatesma...53929536609645
What a load of shit.
What an awful fucking rag the NS has become these days.
Yeah, that's a crock of shit, although it is true that Sanders isn't nearly as much of a lefty as Corbyn. On what basis he calls himself a socialist I'm not sure. Being for single-payer healthcare and some more taxes on the rich hardly qualifies him.
It is still the US, of course he is not as much of a lefty.
Following the clip of him trying to hug his daughter, here is Ted Cruz's father regretting getting his wife pregnant:
He's hated by pretty much everybody.
Rand Paul down.
Oddly I reckon this campaign would have seen Ron Paul right in the mix, if he were ten years younger. The right's Bernie.
Why, what's he done to you?
The only tolerable thing in any of the Republican debates. The clown show full in control.
I read that Jeb Bush and his campaign paid $3,000 for every vote they got in Iowa. It's really time to pull the plug and go all-in on Rubio.
Jesus, that's painful. Why is he still in it?
He ('Jeb') strikes me as being too nice and/or not mental enough for this lark.
Too nice or too soft, depending on how you view it.
Too nice.
Both. Everybody George W. Bush has met since leaving the job seems to agree that he's the nicest man ever, but he cleverly surrounded himself with absolute shits.
Jeb is my #4 favorite, behind Bernie, Rand, and O'Malley. Things are looking grim.
Also, 'Please clap' is quite good humour, and would probably be well-receieved here. In America they've already painted his face on something for a monster truck to crush.
I saw one person describe it as supplanting Hemingway's six-word story as the shortest, saddest story ever told.
Calm down. Good joke though.
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