Originally Posted by
Jimmy Floyd
If 85% of penalties go in (think it's about that), that means 15% don't go in of which probably two-thirds are saved. So the average goalkeeper will save probably 10% of penalties they face. In a five-kick shootout, therefore, your average keeper will save 0.5 penalties. Your top penalty-saving keeper is probably doing twice as well as that (Fabianski on 10/41 saved is top in PL terms). So he'll save 1 penalty in five.
So if all things are equal you would give yourself an advantage of 0.5 penalties by sending on a top specialist from the bench to replace someone bang average. By sending on someone who's only slightly better than the man on the pitch that'll be down to 0.1 or 0.2... I'm not convinced. I'd rather use my sub on a quality penalty taker.