The Missing Dog Walker

[Yevrah]

For those that don't know, a Woman went missing on 27th January, established timeline below:

08:43 - Ms Bulley walked along the path by the River Wyre, having dropped her children off at school
08:47 - A dog walker who knows Ms Bulley saw her walking along the lower field.
08:53 - Ms Bulley sent an email to her boss
09:01 - She logged into a Teams call
About 09:10 - A witness who knows Ms Bulley saw her on the upper field walking with her dog Willow
09:20 - Police inquiries suggest her phone was on the bench
09:30 - The Teams call ended but she stayed logged on
About 09:35 - Ms Bulley's mobile phone and Willow were found at a riverside bench

Interestingly perhaps, the family are now publicly disagreeing with the police assertion that she may have fallen into the river, with the sister coming out and saying there's no evidence that happened.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-64522796

Know it's been discussed in the news thread, but feel like it's time for this one to get its own shit, for two reasons. Firstly, it's gathering pace and depending on the outcome, another round of culture wars may well be around the corner at which point everyone will be talking about it for at least two weeks. But secondly, and perhaps most importantly, we've achieved many things on the two decades plus of this forum (beating the stock market, launching a word into the English language), but to the best of my knowledge we've never solved a missing person/murder.

Over to you.

[Spikey M]

She's inside the balloon.

[Foe]

The balloon is a UFO and she was lifted. I’m with spikey. We’ve solved it.

[Yevrah]

Outstanding work gents. I've let Lancashire police know, they seemed pleased (something about someone being off the hook), but they did say those concerned might take some persuading. I've left it with them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What's your minimum qualification for shenanigans?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've been swayed by the balloon argument.

Netflix will make a cracking docuseries on it.

[Yevrah]

What's your minimum qualification for shenanigans?

Well, I was thinking of the level of Lewis' insurance fraud, but the bar may be lower. What did you have in mind?

[Giggles]

Too interested in this

[Shindig]

She's went to fight in Ukraine. Or walk dogs in Afghanistan.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Well, I was thinking of the level of Lewis' insurance fraud, but the bar may be lower. What did you have in mind?

Running away with a mysterious Latin hunk to start a new life?

I suppose a better question after this amount of time would be what qualifies as an innocent explanation.

The river can't be that deep.

[Waffdon]

It’s not even fast flowing either. If you fall in - unless you’re unconscious - there’s not a chance you’re being swept away without being able to stand up.

[Magic]

Is this the one with the grinning husband?

[Andrew]

Is this the one with the grinning husband?

That’s the look of someone who’s shagging his wife’s sister!!

[Don]

09:20 - Police inquiries suggest her phone was on the bench

What do 'inquiries' mean here? Did they geolocate it to the bench?

They'd ruled out her exiting the area from all bar one (not the bar) entry point. Did they manage to rule that one out too now? If so, then she's in the water surely. Some copper has deffo been incompetent as fuck during this search.

[Yevrah]

Talking of police incompetence, do they usually release rampant speculation to the public:

Supt Sally Riley, who is heading the search, told reporters: "Our main working hypothesis is that Nicola has suddenly fallen into the river, that there's no third party or criminal involvement, and that this is not suspicious but a tragic case of a missing person.

Locals have described the river bank as being "very slippy", and in an appeal to volunteers police described it as "treacherous".

"There may have been an issue with the dog that led her to the water's edge, she puts her phone down to go and deal with the dog momentarily, and Nicola may have fallen in.

"We assume the dog didn't get into the river, but we don't know why Nicola may have if she did."

It is possible that she was trying to retrieve a ball, the detective said.

Given they have no body and can't account for, what, 25 minutes, how on earth is their main working hypothesis that there's no third party or criminal involvement?

Ms Riley told the MailOnline after the press conference: "I'm not aware of a dog ball being retrieved but it's possible that a ball could have rolled down the steep bank close to the edge of the water and Ms Bulley was bending down to pick it up.

I mean, it's possible, many things are. Aren't you meant to properly rule these things out before speculating about a ball that they're not even sure was there?

Her father, Ernest, told The Mirror: "I asked the Sergeant from Fleetwood a few days ago, 'is there any chance of her being taken' and she said 'I don't think that's the case'.

"I said 'how can you know that?', it's such an isolated area, the only way that has happened is if it was someone who knew her."

The more I read on this, the more it stinks.

[Yevrah]

And if the working hypothesis was that she fell in the river, why did it take the best part of a week to get the divers in?

[Shindig]

If they come out and say how suspicious it is, the husband will bolt for the hills.

[Yevrah]

If they come out and say how suspicious it is, the husband will bolt for the hills.

It did cross my mind that they might be trying to lull someone into a false sense of security, but they've taken that to extremes with some of that stuff.

[7om]

What’s this river like? If it’s a glorified stream then I’m not onboard with the police hypothesis but if it’s some raging current then it’s entirely possible she fell in and drowned. If it is a fast current, I wonder how possible it is that her body has just been dragged downstream and the divers won’t find anything.

[Spikey M]

It's pretty shallow and the police they've shown standing in it are doing so easily. A body would float away pretty slowly.

[Yevrah]

Courtesy of reddit before Giggles gets excited about my involvement.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.86...!7i6912!8i3456

[-james-]

The final sighting was actually further downstream than that

https://www.google.com/maps/@53.8648...!7i6912!8i3456

Seeing that, it's surely foul play innit. There's also surely no covertly removing of a body from that location at half nine in the morning, so I presume they'll find her soon.

[Yevrah]

Fuck me. If my niece drowned in that I'd be disappointed in her.

[Shindig]

"Uncle Harvey, why are we out here?"
"Are you a good swimmer? Do you like mysteries?"

[Yevrah]

In all seriousness, I can see why the family have gone to the press/social media now. Unless they're 4D chessing it I'd have no confidence in any of those theories.

[Boydy]

If someone murdered here, would they leave the phone and dog behind?

If she's done a runner, surely there must be some sort of paper (or electronic) trail as to where she's gone? Is her passport still at home?

[Spikey M]

I think this is why it's so interesting. Every possibility has atleast one glaring problem with it. To the extent that her being inside the balloon isn't much more ridiculous that the idea that she fell in an incredibly slow moving, shallow river, her dog wasn't arsed enough to follow her (despite going in that same river its self on other days) and the body hasn't been seen by anyone ever since.

[Boydy]

[Ben]

I’m now unsubscribing to the “fallen into river” theory. TTH detectives have turned me.

[Boydy]

Courtesy of reddit before Giggles gets excited about my involvement.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.86...!7i6912!8i3456

Can you link the thread? I want to see their theories.

[7om]

I’m going with foul play. There’s no chance a young person is drowning in that unless they’ve been unlucky and smacked their head on a rock or something.

[Spikey M]

I’m going with foul play. There’s no chance a young person is drowning in that unless they’ve been unlucky and smacked their head on a rock or something.

Even then, the body isn't going anywhere fast and you would have to have the worlds shittest dog for it not to give a fuck.

[Yevrah]

This was it Boyd, didn't read that much of it so didn't see any theories. The map link was off one of the comments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingd...a_bulley_fear/

[Yevrah]

I think this is why it's so interesting. Every possibility has atleast one glaring problem with it. To the extent that her being inside the balloon isn't much more ridiculous that the idea that she fell in an incredibly slow moving, shallow river, her dog wasn't arsed enough to follow her (despite going in that same river its self on other days) and the body hasn't been seen by anyone ever since.

Yeah, that's nailed why the fascination with this. There isn't a plausible theory I've seen yet, or at least not one that you go "yeah ok, that makes sense" when subjected to any sort of scrutiny, but something has happened to her, be it voluntarily or otherwise.

I didn't pick up on it when Jim first posted about it in the news thread, exhibiting the attention span of a goldfish as I did, but having bothered now it's intriguing stuff. Like a reverse Kaspar Hauser.

[7om]

Just saw an interesting post on one of the Reddit threads. The guy was saying a similar incident happened to him. Took his dog out for a walk along the river and it’s run down the bank and got stuck. So he’s took his wallet and phone out of his pocket and put them on the grass. He slides down the bank and chucks his dog back up to safety.

Now at this point if he were to slip into the river, you’d find his bone-dry dog and belongings and no sign of him. And if that river in James’ link is a bit deeper and faster, it’s not inconceivable that she’s done the same as this bloke, except she’s slipped in and been swept away.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't see how she could have been snuck up on, murdered and then disappeared in that short a time window, from that location, without either someone noticing something at the time, or any form of evidence being left afterwards. Now, you can say the local police are morons, and they probably are, but by now with the media coverage they'll have got the proper lads in from GMP or maybe even London, so if there's anything obvious it would have been found.

Let's say she wanted to leg it for whatever reason and leave her old life behind. You'd want nobody to suspect anything either at the time or, crucially, in the key time period you have to get away before someone notices you're gone. If you leave the dog at home, when you'd normally walk it at that time, then it gives away that you'd planned an exit stage left. If you don't join the Teams call when you normally would, then people might notice.

If you want to disappear, the best place to disappear from is exactly where she has disappeared from - a place that she would normally be, and yet where she can't be seen. Indeed, because she walks the dog here all the time, she has had ample opportunity to scout out everything about the location - the lines of sight from nearby windows, the frequency of other dog walkers coming by, how long it takes for a potential witness to move from point A to point B. All of this allows you to devise a plan.

You let the dog off the lead, you leave the phone on the bench, you scurry under a couple of fences to a nearby backstreet where your accomplice has a car (and also cannot be seen) and this car drives away in a calm and orderly fashion, perhaps even with her in the boot. There, a latex mask is waiting for her which she applies and, at Sandbach Services or some similar location, climbs out of the boot into the front seat and off they go to their new life.

In the 25 minutes it takes for that to happen, someone has found the dog, but the police probably aren't going to arrive for another half an hour, maybe longer, and she's gone, leaving an apparently unsolvable mystery and a series of baffled and grief-stricken friends and relatives.

[Don]

The drowning is being ruled out because you're looking at a shit pixelated image of what looks to be a stream/river of unidentifiable depth/current? Calm down, lads.

[Yevrah]

And that all definitely works until you consider she had two kids. Now, I don't have any myself, but for those of you that do what would it take for your partners to do that? Seems inconceivable.

[Dquincy]

As mental as Jim's post is, being a parent would suggest there is no chance she is doing a runner. A parent to leave her kids is a non-starter for me Jeff.

If she was taken, screams would be heard.

Therefore, she's in the rover.

Edit: she's not in a car. Meant river.

[Jimmy Floyd]

And that all definitely works until you consider she had two kids. Now, I don't have any myself, but for those of you that do what would it take for your partners to do that? Seems inconceivable.

It must happen all the time. It could be a similar thought process to that exhibited by suicidal people, in which you genuinely believe it'll be better for them this way. Or it could just be the mother of all mid-life crises.

[Spikey M]

Parents abandon their kids all the time. Usually the dad, but mum's do it too. Kids are murdered by their parents fairly regularly. A mum doing a bunk is hardly impossible.

[Yevrah]

As mental as Jim's post is, being a parent would suggest there is no chance she is doing a runner. A parent to leave her kids is a non-starter for me Jeff.

I could see a Man doing it (in fact canoe man did), but a Woman, without some severe coercion (which would presumably have manifested itself to her friends and family through very odd behaviour before she upped sticks), I just can't.

[Yevrah]

It must happen all the time. It could be a similar thought process to that exhibited by suicidal people, in which you genuinely believe it'll be better for them this way. Or it could just be the mother of all mid-life crises.

Parents abandon their kids all the time. Usually the dad, but mum's do it too. Kids are murdered by their parents fairly regularly. A mum doing a bunk is hardly impossible.

Hmm, fair points. I'd have thought someone would have seen/noticed something weird if she'd been the definition of normal Mum up to now, but maybe not. It's a contender.

[Boydy]

If the running off theory is that she's run off with someone then surely someone else is missing from their regular life now too?

[Spikey M]

I could see a Man doing it (in fact canoe man did), but a Woman, without some severe coercion (which would presumably have manifested itself to her friends and family through very odd behaviour before she upped sticks), I just can't.

One of our residents, back in early 2000-something, decided she'd had enough of her 2 year old son, walked him into the Civic Centre told them to "try to make the miserable little shit happy" and walked out, leaving him behind. He grew up in care. He's now back with her as an adult enjoying a fantastically dysfunctional relationship that is driving their neighbours - and me - mad.

I have a fair few other residents that have voluntarily "surrendered" their children to the care system. You are underestimating how common it is.

[Dquincy]

Spikey makes a fair point, there are a lot of mentals in the world. However, looking at her photo and the fact I could never understand how any parent would do that, I'm with Yev on this.

Appreciate all my reasoning is very subjective.

[Spikey M]

Hmm, fair points. I'd have thought someone would have seen/noticed something weird if she'd been the definition of normal Mum up to now, but maybe not. It's a contender.

Absolutely. I highly doubt you go from happy family to emotionally detached abandonment over night. None of the cases I mention did.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I should have added, also, that her being connected to the Teams call is potentially crucial if you're trying to buy yourself a few extra minutes. Let's say she logs onto the Teams call at the start, is heard or even seen to say 'Morning everyone!', and then remains on the call, there is no doubt in the minds of anyone on that call that she's around and about.

The disappearance location being next to a river is also important because it makes everyone think she has fallen in the river and waste valuable investigation time looking in said river while she has made a beeline for Panama.

I'm just riffing here.

[Yevrah]

I've done a bit of googling and I'm struggling to find anything like this case. People just don't vanish. Or rather they do, but seemingly only if they're kids, young women or those unfortunate enough to have no fixed abode. Even then it's reasonably straight forward to surmise what happened in those cases.

[Dquincy]

If the running off theory is that she's run off with someone then surely someone else is missing from their regular life now too?

Plus, haven't they checked all the local CCTV. No sign of her after said time, apparently. So unless she's got a SUP board with her on her walk, I'm not having the running (paddling) away theory at all.