Wrote up some thoughts on each act in running order to gather my thoughts:
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Czech Republic- This has come together really well, looks and sounds like a bit like Hot Chip covering Smalltown Boy, even her lame white girl dance moves are rather endearing. Might struggle to crack the top half given draw.
Romania - Never saw this qualifying but he makes the best of what is a pretty weak song.
Portugal - Bit of a tough break with the running order, though being surrounded by a load of hot messes on either side should work in its favour. Clear quality and juries should enjoy, but televote will be an issue. Top 10 at big odds doesn't look a terrible bet.
Finland - Mr Rasmus is looking alright isn't he? Been humming this all week. Enjoyable.
Switzerland - First of many blokes singing boring ballads.
France - Heard this for the first time after having a joint and thought it was the best thing I'd ever heard. Great fun, but jury kryptonite.
Norway - Get in the bin
Armenia - About as middle of the road as it gets. Followed by an interval and then four of the favourites so an ideal piss break really.
Italy - Has excellent televote and jury potential, but the vibe I'm getting is that neither they nor the EBU want the double to happen. Mahmood is great but I'm not convinced he's that bothered. Followed by three powerhouses in the running order, feels like the kind of song that will struggle to leave a lasting impact.
Spain - This goes so fucking hard. Huge winner vibes. Seems unlikely, suspect juries will kill it because you can see her arse. On the other hand it is fantastically performed, arguably better than Cyprus 2018 (runner-up) which is the obvious precedent. If the juries buy it and it manages to challenge Ukraine for the popular vote then it might be in with a shot. Has my vote anyway.
Netherlands - My god Dutch is fucking weird. This is very good though. These last three acts will be a very tough trio to follow...
Ukraine - The shortest favourite there has ever been pre-event, and let me be clear, it'll be a travesty and a scandal if it wins. Fairly generic ethno-rap that in another year nobody bats an eyelid at and comes about 15th with the juries. For it to win, you're banking on two things: an unprecedented avalance of casual sympathy votes, and the juries making a mockery of themselves.
They've been given the best slot that was available to them, which would normally indicate that they've won their semi final. That's the most useful data point we have, though they weren't up against the stiffest competition there.
There are a lot of "jury songs" in the show. Where does that leave Ukraine? Does them dominating the televote with no big jury scores to contest them work in their favour? Or will they be so far down the jury ranking that it nullifies their televote score? Dunno.
They probably need about 550 points to win. Say they smash the record televote and get 420 points, they'll need about 130 from the jury. Average jury rank for 130 points is around 6th. If I'm being extremely generous and assume a load of jury sympathy then I give it ~8th for the jury, if I'm not then 14th. Not enough for me, Clive.
Germany - Favourite for last place which is a shame, it's at least a little endearing. Hoping the jury see something in it because he seems like a nice chap who's probably not expecting single digits.
Lithuania - Fairly middle of the road. Not really sure where the votes are coming from (apart from the annual 12 UK points), but this is very watchable.
Azerbaijan - Jury bait. Borefest. Piss break.
Belgium - This is really far below the standard of the rest of the show imo.
Greece - First bit of quality in a while. She's super and the production is effective but I'm not sure it'll be many people's favourite. Quite an unfortunate running order slot too.
Iceland - I think this is great. Juries should reward the rather lovely harmonies. Sort of thing that struggles south and east of, say, Vienna though.
Moldova - Quite the change of pace. Will sound huge after about the twenty consecutive ballads it follows on from. Didn't expect to be saying this but looks like 10th or higher.
Sweden - Get it queen. Best of the bunch imo, I don't think any other act has her professionalism. There's something quite vulnerable about it as a performance, and I think at times she looks nervous. Will have to nail it on the night.
Australia - Pipes. Another jury song.
United Kingdom - Current second favourite. It's a proper good entry for the first time in ages but I think he (to a much lesser extent) has the same pub singer vibes that the last couple of blokes we've sent have had. Proper pales in comparison to Cornelia for instance. Current favouritism for the jury vote is unjustified imo, sure to do very well there but faces stiff competition from the likes of Poland and Sweden. Simply isn't going to get enough televotes from Eastern Europe to challenge. Fourth would be a fantastic result.
Poland - Possibly the best singy bloke of the lot, spectacular. 8th-ish I think.
Serbia - I haven't a clue how this will do. Lot of hype around it for reasons that are obvious once you've seen it. Too gimmicky? Perhaps, but if the juries buy it then it could even peek into the top five.
Estonia - Fairly inconspicuous. He's likeable but a tough few acts to follow.