Limiting my intake of news now but the biggest fallacy I'm seeing is our pundits (by 'our' I mean also Ukraine and the entire West) massively overestimating the Russian people's capacity for protest after the impact of sanctions bites. Even if one assumes that a majority would be instinctively anti-war, which is by no means certain, this is one of the weakest civil societies in the world. They will accept basically anything, short of 1917-style mass starvation, because that is how things have always been.

Random prediction that comes to mind is that if and when they return to football, it will be in the AFC and not UEFA.